ISLAMABAD/KARACHI: A political stalemate in Pakistan after general elections did not produce any clear winner had forced Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) chief Nawaz Sharif to withdraw from the coveted slot of prime minister, analysts said on Wednesday, predicting that a “weak” coalition government formed by the PML-N and its allies would find it difficult to effectively tackle intractable challenges on the political, economic and security fronts.
Sharif, a three-time former prime minister, nominated his younger brother Shehbaz Sharif as the PM candidate of the coalition government and his daughter Maryam Nawaz Sharif as Punjab chief minister, hours after the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) extended conditional support to the PML-N to form a minority government at the centre.
The elder Sharif had led his party’s election campaign as a frontrunner for the PM slot after his return to Pakistan in October last year from self-imposed exile in London. His PML-N party was widely seen to have the backing of the all-powerful military, which denies it interferes in political affairs.
But polls produced a split mandate, forcing the Sharifs to join hands with smaller parties to form the government, as independent candidates backed by jailed ex-premier Imran Khan's Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party won the most seats, 90, but ruled out a coalition with the PPP, PML-N or any of the other legacy parties in Pakistan.
The conditions to form a coalition government do not bode well for a stable or strong administration in the world's second-largest Muslim country, analysts have widely warned, at a time when Pakistan faces multiple challenges such as relentless political instability, economic slowdown and a surge in militancy.
“This will not be a stable government to face the economic and political challenges faced by the country,” political analyst and author Zahid Hussain told Arab News.
The prospect of a weak, divided government have raised questions about whether Pakistan will be able to undertake reforms needed to secure a vital new International Monetary Fund program later this year, or deal with an alarming surge in militant attacks.
These concerns were also high on Sharif’s mind, Hussain said, and believing that the coalition government may not be able to complete its term with a “controversial and weak mandate,” he opted to withdraw himself from the PM race.
“HIGHLY UNSTABLE”
The PPP, the third largest party in the National Assembly, on Tuesday extended conditional support to the PML-N, saying that it would vote for Sharif’s PM candidate but would not become part of the federal cabinet. PPP chairman Bilawal Bhutto-Zardari also announced a committee to discuss parliamentary support for the PML-N on an issue-to-issue basis.
Mohammad Malick, a political analyst and talk show host, said Sharif had been “always quite clear in private” that he would not lead a minority government.
“This is a highly unstable and weak government because it will rely on the PPP and other allies at all times for all major policy decisions and economic measures,” Malick told Arab News.
“This government will not only rely heavily on its allies, but also constantly need the army’s support to push the agenda, whether legislative or economic.”
“The election results did not meet Nawaz Sharif’s expectations of getting at least a simple majority, instead it resulted in serious question marks over his party’s electoral success,” analyst Dr Qamar Cheema said.
He said the PPP had decided to vote for the PML-N’s PM candidate to avert a political crisis in the wake of a split mandate, but the party was not ready to share the burden of tough decision-making by becoming part of the cabinet.
“The PPP leadership is eying constitutional positions like president, speaker National Assembly and chairman Senate instead of the ministries where they will be directly responsible for their performance along with the PML-N,” Cheema said.
“FORMIDABLE SECURITY CHALLENGE”
A weak coalition will also have a hard time dealing with rising militancy, analysts said, after an election season marked by attacks on rallies, political offices and candidates and a polling day tainted by violence.
Militant attacks have risen over the past 18 months after a lull when many groups were driven into neighboring Afghanistan through military operations. The groups - particularly the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) - reorganized in Afghanistan after the Taliban returned to power there in 2021, and have been reportedly using advanced weaponry left behind by NATO-led forces.
Militants have carried out a string of high-profile attacks and returned to strongholds inside Pakistan. But Islamabad's limited fiscal space limits its ability to fund another sustained military operation.
An ethno-nationalist Baloch insurgency in the southwest, which also targets the interests of key ally China, has also picked up steam. Beijing has invested heavily in mines in the mineral rich Balochistan province and in the strategic port, Gwadar.
Pakistan witnessed a 70% increase in militant attacks, an 81% rise in killings and a 62% surge in injuries in 2023 compared to the year before, according to data from the Pakistan Institute for Conflict and Security Studies (PICSS). Anti-state violence reached its highest level since 2015 in 2023, marked by the most suicide attacks since 2014 and an average of 54 attacks per month.
In January this year, 93 militant attacks took place, with 90 killed and 135 injured.
“The presence of a fragile coalition government within the country, coupled with tensions between the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province [bordering Afghanistan] and the federal government, may exacerbate security issues” Abdul Sayed, an independent scholar on politics and security in the Afghanistan-Pakistan region, told Arab News.
However, PICSS managing director Abdullah Khan, said whether the government was weak or not would not matter as security-related decisions, including how to tackle militancy, were largely taken by the military in Pakistan.
“The decisions regarding security are taken by the military and it has grip over the affairs but if the government wants to engage the militants through talks, which are crucial for bringing down terrorism, then a weaker government may not take decisions,” Khan told Arab News.
Jan Achakzai, a spokesperson for the Balochistan government, admitted that militancy would be a “serious” problem for the next government but said a zero tolerance policy for terrorism would continue, no matter who formed the new administration.
“Terrorism is a national issue, not confined to one political party. All stakeholders, including security forces and political governments, have been and are united in the belief that terrorism must be defeated,” he said.
“Regardless of who controls Islamabad or the provinces, there should be no problem in terms of facing terrorism, as it is an ongoing and consistent policy of the state to eradicate it.”
