What the intensifying US-Iran proxy war means for crisis-wracked Syria, Lebanon, Iraq and Yemen

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Updated 15 February 2024
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What the intensifying US-Iran proxy war means for crisis-wracked Syria, Lebanon, Iraq and Yemen

  • Analysts say the ailing regional economies can ill-afford a conflict resulting from Gaza escalation
  • Violence on Lebanon-Israel border could spread to vulnerable Arab states under Iran’s ‘unity of arenas’ strategy

LONDON: Israel’s military offensive in the Gaza Strip has spilled over into neighboring countries and sent shockwaves across the wider region, transforming Syria, Lebanon, Iraq and Yemen into battlefields in an escalating proxy war between the US and Iran.

This mounting instability has wrought havoc on the economies of the region, many of which were already grappling with deep recessions, spiraling inflation, high unemployment and political instability, leaving them ill-equipped to withstand a major conflict.

The International Monetary Fund revised down regional growth projections for 2024 by 0.5 percent in October following the Hamas-led attacks on Israel that saw 1,200 killed and 240 taken hostage, sparking the ongoing conflict in Gaza.

Regional gross domestic product is forecast to grow by a mere 2.9 percent this year — a scant improvement on the modest 2 percent growth seen in 2023.

With their economies stagnant, these nations could easily implode if the conflict escalates further.




Syrian fighters ride in a convoy during a military drill by the Turkish-backed “Suleiman Shah Division” in the opposition-held Afrin region of northern Syria. (AFP/File)

“Lebanon, Syria, Iraq and Yemen are all facing existing crises of one sort or another and can ill-afford to see economic investors flee due to the high risks of war,” Omar Rahman, a fellow at the Middle East Council on Global Affairs, told Arab News.

Since launching its military campaign in Gaza, Israel has simultaneously mounted a series of strikes against targets in Syria and Lebanon — many of them targeting senior members of Hamas and its fellow Iranian proxy Hezbollah.

The most recent of these attacks took place in January, when an Israeli strike on the Syrian capital Damascus hit a residential building reportedly used by members of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.

“Syria has become a battleground for great power rivalries, both regional and international,” Joshua Landis, director of both the Center for Middle East Studies and the Farzaneh Family Center for Iranian and Arabian Gulf Studies at the University of Oklahoma, told Arab News.

The increased drumbeat of Israeli strikes on Syrian military bases, weapons depots and airports, as well as the increasing number of targeted killings of leading Iranian officials, “means more death, destruction and instability,” he said.

Landis believes the escalating regional conflagration, with Israel and the US in one corner and Iran’s proxy militias in the other, has “provided cover for many local combatants to increase the pace of their attacks,” thereby compounding Syria’s multiple, overlapping predicaments.

“The Syrian regime has been bombing northwest Syrian militias in an effort to keep them from building effective state institutions in their region,” said Landis, referring to the armed opposition groups that remain in control of Idlib province and parts of Aleppo.

“Turkiye has intensified its assassination campaign against leading YPG (People’s Defense Units) officials in northeast Syria, and local Syrian communities have been up in arms against the oppression and mismanagement of local authorities.

“The Druze continue their demonstrations against the regime in the Jabal Druze, and the Arab tribes continue to militate against the Kurds in northeast Syria.”




An injured man looks at rubble and debris of a destroyed building in the aftermath of Israeli bombardment on Rafah, Gaza Strip. (AFP)

Against this backdrop, the regime of Bashar Assad in Damascus, long propped up by Iran and Hezbollah, has found itself, willingly or unwillingly, caught in the middle of this latest bout of regional turmoil.

Earlier this month, the US launched strikes against 85 targets across seven locations in Syria and Iraq in retaliation for Iran-backed militia attacks on US troops stationed in the region, including a Jan. 27 incident in which three American personnel were killed and 40 wounded at a base in Jordan close to the Syrian border.

And despite stating that “the United States does not seek conflict in the Middle East or anywhere else in the world,” President Joe Biden has vowed that its response “will continue at times and places of our choosing.”

For the Syrian public, this regional escalation spells further misery. “The economic fallout of this violence and instability has been severe,” said Landis. “The economy is frozen. Inflation continues to eat away at the spending power of Syrians, driving them into ever-greater poverty.”

According to UN figures, 90 percent of Syria’s population is grappling with poverty, with 80 percent living below the poverty line.

The UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs said in December that 16.7 million people across Syria require humanitarian assistance.

However, with multiple conflicts and crises raging across the globe, the humanitarian aid sector faces a funding crisis of its own.

The UN has requested $46 billion in donations for 2024, highlighting that the existing shortfall would leave more than 150 million people without aid.

“The UN Development Programme and World Food Programme are both hollowing out their humanitarian aid programs as the international gaze is diverted to Gaza, Sudan and other hotspots,” said Landis.

And what had initially looked like green shoots of recovery for the Syrian economy were soon buried.

Syria’s tourism sector, “which was a bright spot last year, can only be expected to take a downturn in the shadow of the Gaza war and regional instability,” said Landis.




Armed Yemeni Houthis sit on the back of an armored vehicle during an anti-Israel and anti-US rally in Sanaa. (AFP/File)

Lebanon faces similar challenges. Its border with Israel has been a flashpoint since the Gaza conflict began in October, with sporadic exchanges of fire between the Israel Defense Forces and Lebanese armed groups, including Hezbollah.

Many Lebanese fear that a full-blown conflict even more destructive than the 2006 war could easily break out, with unimaginable consequences for civilians.

Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant warned in January that “the possibility of reaching a political settlement with Lebanon is running out, and as a result, we may end up resorting to military action.”

Having been in the throes of a crippling financial crisis since 2019 and trapped in a state of political paralysis, unable to appoint a new president or build a functioning administration, Lebanon is perhaps uniquely vulnerable.

“Lebanon, which is already reeling economically and politically, faces the clearest prospect of a catastrophic military conflict, like in 2006,” said Rahman.

“That’s why there’s a reluctance from Hezbollah for major escalation with Israel in spite of its other inclinations.”

Citing the “high uncertainty” brought about by the Gaza war, the World Bank refrained from offering a forecast for Lebanon’s GDP in 2024.

The UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs, meanwhile, projected modest growth of 1.7 percent.

Eva J. Koulouriotis, a political analyst specializing in the Middle East, warned that any escalation on the Lebanese-Israeli border into all-out war “will have serious repercussions.”

This “dangerous” development “will increase the likelihood of its expansion to Syria and Iraq, as well as a greater escalation in Yemen under what Iran’s regional arms call the ‘unity of arenas’ strategy,” she told Arab News.

“Politically, in Lebanon, the state of division and disharmony between the political factions will increase and the specter of the Lebanese arena turning into a new civil war will return. This will mean a comprehensive collapse of the economy.”

Koulouriotis believes an escalation between Israel and Hezbollah, coupled with a failure to secure a ceasefire in Gaza, will only fuel the threat posed by the Iran-backed Houthi militia in Yemen to commercial shipping in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden.




Smoke billows during Israeli bombardment on the village of Khiyam in southern Lebanon. (AFP)

Since Nov. 19, the Houthis have launched more than 20 missile and drone attacks against vessels in these strategic waterways, with the stated aim of pressuring Israel to halt its military campaign in Gaza.

In early February, the US and UK launched a barrage of strikes targeting 36 Houthi positions. Houthi military spokesman Yahya Saree said Yemen’s capital Sanaa was among the sites targeted.

Having been locked in its own grinding civil war between the Houthis and the internationally recognized government since 2015, Yemen is already in a state of economic ruin, with sections of its population on the brink of famine.

“War-torn Yemen is already highly dependent on humanitarian aid, and is in the midst of long-running negotiations to bring an end to its eight-year war,” said Rahman, warning that “the current confrontation with the US and UK risks destabilizing that process and disrupting crucial flows of aid and economic redevelopment.”

The US has also launched several attacks against Iran-backed militias operating in Iraq. On Feb. 8, an American drone strike in Baghdad killed a senior commander of Kataib Hezbollah alongside two of his guards.

The Pentagon claimed that the commander was responsible for the fatal Jan. 27 attack on US forces in Jordan.

INNUMBERS

• 2.9% IMF’s GDP growth forecast for the Middle East and North Africa in 2024.

• 90% Proportion of Syria’s population grappling with poverty, according to UN figures.

• 16.7m People across Syria who require humanitarian assistance, according to UN OCHA.

• 1.7% Lebanon’s projected growth in 2024, according to UN DESA.

US military bases in the Middle East have been hit with more than 165 rocket and drone attacks since mid-October.  

Having emerged from decades of conflict and insurgency, Iraq had been showing signs of economic recovery, albeit still heavily reliant on oil exports and a bloated public sector.

Although regional instability is no doubt unwelcome at the very moment things appeared to be getting on track, Rahman believes the latest bout of regional violence offers “a mixed bag” for Iraq.

“In one sense, its oil export-dependent economy benefits from instability and higher prices,” he said. “Its Iran-aligned militias are also able to advance their agenda of pushing the US out of the country.

“On the other hand, Iraq already faces political and economic precarity and risks much in being a major flashpoint, or even frontline, in a regional war that includes Iran, as it tries to rebuild after decades of war.”

Landis, however, is optimistic about the prospects for Syria if the US is pushed out of Iraq. “If America is forced to abandon its bases in Iraq, pressure will mount to evacuate Syria as well,” he said.




Yemenis hold a pro-Palestine rally in Sanaa. (AFP/File)

“Should Damascus return to northeast Syria, possibilities for an economic revitalization will open up.

“It will bring pain to the Kurds, but most Syrians who live under government control will regain oil, gas and electricity. It will help Syria regain control of its lands and resources.”

America has some 2,500 troops stationed in Iraq, 900 in Syria, and around 3,000 in Jordan as part of a US-led coalition that seeks, according to the Pentagon, to prevent the resurgence of the terrorist group Daesh.

Although the region looks increasingly like a battlefield between the US and Iran, Koulouriotis doubts that the region will witness a direct confrontation between the two — something neither side professes to want.

“Despite the current ongoing escalation on various fronts in the region, the two main sides of the conflict in Washington and Tehran are still not interested in going towards a direct and comprehensive confrontation,” she said.


Young Turks drive protests against Erdogan as new generation seeks change

Updated 14 sec ago
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Young Turks drive protests against Erdogan as new generation seeks change

ANKARA: A new generation of young Turks is at the forefront of mass protests against President Tayyip Erdogan’s government, demanding change in a country they see as increasingly authoritarian. Demonstrations erupted after Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, a popular opposition figure, was jailed pending trial on corruption charges. Unlike older generations who remember the heavy crackdown on the 2013 anti-government Gezi Park protests, today’s young protesters say they are undeterred by the risks.
“I think growing up under just one regime makes us a generation looking for change, looking for proof we live in a democracy,” said Yezan Atesyan, a 20-year-old student at Middle East Technical University (METU).
“The idea of a power that lasts forever scares us.”
Hundreds of thousands of Turks nationwide have heeded opposition calls to protest since Imamoglu was detained last week.
Protests have been mostly peaceful, but more than 2,000 people have been detained.
The main opposition Republican People's Party (CHP), other opposition parties, rights groups and some Western powers have all said the case against Imamoglu is a politicised effort to eliminate a potential electoral threat to Erdogan.
The government denies any influence over the judiciary and says the courts are independent.
Students from across Turkey have mobilized, facing police blockades and water cannon trucks. Drone footage from METU captured clashes between protesters and state security forces.
Atesyan said all were targetted in the crackdown: "Not just minorities, not just women, not just the LGBT community — it is against all of us."

A GENERATION ON EDGE
Beyond political frustration, economic hardship has fueled the unrest. High inflation and unemployment have made young people feel their future is slipping away.
“I graduated in 2024, but I can’t find a job, and my family struggles financially,” said 25-year-old protester Duygu at an opposition rally in Istanbul.
She fears for her safety but also worries about her friends. “Some of them have already been detained.”
Concerns over the state's response are growing. “I don’t want to show my face because the police could come for me,” said Duygu, who wears a mask at protests. “If that happens, it would devastate my family.”
Despite the risks, demonstrators remain resolute.
“This feels like our last chance,” Atesyan said.
“If we don’t succeed, many of us will have to leave Turkey.”
The government dismisses the protests as politically motivated, but the youth-driven unrest signals a growing divide.
“Imamoglu represents hope,” Atesyan said. “The possibility of real change.”
As protests continue, young Turks insist their demands are simple: democracy, accountability, and a future worth staying for.

Israel expands military effort in Gaza, 15 killed since morning

Updated 33 min 46 sec ago
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Israel expands military effort in Gaza, 15 killed since morning

  • Katz said there would be large-scale evacuation of population from areas where there is fighting

JERUSALEM: Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz announced a major expansion of the military operation in Gaza on Wednesday, saying large areas of the enclave would be seized and added to the security zones of Israel.
In a statement, Katz said there would be large-scale evacuation of population from areas where there is fighting, and urged Gazans to eliminate Hamas and return Israeli hostages as the only way to end the war.
He did not make clear how much land Israel intends to seize, however.

Gaza rescuers say 15 killed in Israeli strikes on two houses

Gaza’s civil defense agency said Israeli air strikes on two houses in the war-ravaged Palestinian territory on Wednesday killed at least 15 people, including children.
“Thirteen martyrs, including children, were killed at dawn when occupation forces (the Israeli army) bombed a house sheltering displaced people in central Khan Yunis, in southern Gaza,” civil defense spokesman Mahmud Bassal told AFP, adding two other people were kiled in an Israeli strike on a house in the Nuseirat camp, in central Gaza.
Israel has already set up a significant buffer zone within Gaza, expanding an area that existed around the edges of the enclave before the war and adding a large security area in the so-called Netzarim corridor through the middle of Gaza.
At the same time, Israeli leaders have said they plan to facilitate voluntary departure of Palestinians from the enclave, after US President Donald Trump called for it to be permanently evacuated and redeveloped as a coastal resort under US control.
Israel resumed air strikes on Gaza and sent ground troops back in this month, after two months of relative calm following the conclusion of a US-backed truce to allow the exchange of hostages held by Hamas for Palestinian prisoners in Israeli jails.
Efforts led by Qatari and Egyptian mediators to get back on tracks talks aimed at ending the war have failed to make progress yet.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has said the application of military pressure is the best way to get the remaining 59 hostages back.


US adding second aircraft carrier to fleet in Middle East

Updated 02 April 2025
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US adding second aircraft carrier to fleet in Middle East

  • The Harry S. Truman carrier strike group will be joined by the Carl Vinson “to continue promoting regional stability, deter aggression, and protect the free flow of commerce in the region,” Pentagon spokesman Sean Parnell said in a statement

WASHINGTON: The United States is increasing the number of aircraft carriers deployed in the Middle East to two, keeping one that is already there and sending another from the Indo-Pacific, the Pentagon said Tuesday.
The announcement comes as US forces hammer Yemen’s Houthi rebels with near-daily air strikes in a campaign aimed at ending the threat they pose to civilian shipping and military vessels in the region.
The Carl Vinson will join the Harry S. Truman in the Middle East “to continue promoting regional stability, deter aggression, and protect the free flow of commerce in the region,” Pentagon spokesman Sean Parnell said in a statement.
“To complement the CENTCOM maritime posture, the secretary also ordered the deployment of additional squadrons and other air assets that will further reinforce our defensive air-support capabilities,” Parnell said, referring to the US military command responsible for the region.
“The United States and its partners remain committed to regional security in the CENTCOM (area of responsibility) and are prepared to respond to any state or non-state actor seeking to broaden or escalate conflict in the region,” he added.
The Houthis began targeting shipping in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden after the start of the Gaza war in 2023, claiming solidarity with Palestinians.
Houthi attacks have prevented ships from passing through the Suez Canal, a vital route that normally carries about 12 percent of world shipping traffic. Ongoing attacks are forcing many companies into a costly detour around the tip of southern Africa.

A day before the carrier announcement, US President Donald Trump vowed that strikes on Yemen’s Houthis would continue until they are no longer a threat to shipping.
“The choice for the Houthis is clear: Stop shooting at US ships, and we will stop shooting at you. Otherwise, we have only just begun, and the real pain is yet to come, for both the Houthis and their sponsors in Iran,” Trump said on his Truth Social platform.
Trump added that the Houthis had been “decimated” by “relentless” strikes since March 15, saying that US forces “hit them every day and night — Harder and harder.”
He has also ramped up rhetoric toward Tehran, with the president threatening that “there will be bombing” if Iran does not reach a deal on its nuclear program.
Trump’s threats come as his administration battles a scandal over the accidental leak of a secret group chat by senior security officials on the Yemen strikes.
The Atlantic magazine revealed last week that its editor — a well-known US journalist — was inadvertently included in a chat on the commercially available Signal app where top officials were discussing the strikes.
The officials, including Trump’s National Security Adviser Mike Waltz and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, discussed details of air strike timings and intelligence — unaware that the highly sensitive information was being simultaneously read by a member of the media.

 


Algeria downs drone near its border with Mali as tensions between them simmer

Algerian soldiers take part in a parade in the capital Algiers on July 5, 2022. (AFP)
Updated 02 April 2025
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Algeria downs drone near its border with Mali as tensions between them simmer

  • Algeria has denounced the direction that Mali’s new government has taken and its expanded efforts to quash rebellion in historically volatile parts of northern Mali
  • Algeria once served as a key mediator during more than a decade of conflict between Mali’s government and Tuareg rebels

BAMAKO, Mali: Algeria said Tuesday it shot down a military drone near the country’s border with Mali in the first incident of its kind during growing tensions between the two countries governing a vast portion of the Sahara.
The country’s army said in a statement that the armed reconnaissance drone had entered Algerian airspace Monday near Tin Zaouatine, a border town and stronghold for Tuareg separatists opposed to Mali’s government. Mali’s army acknowledged that one of its drones had crashed in the area, but did not confirm whether it was shot down by Algeria.
Rida Lyammouri, a Sahel expert at the Morocco-based Policy Center for the New South, said the shooting down of the drone — rather than issuing a warning — reflected simmering frustrations.
It “confirms the serious tensions between the countries and unwillingness and zero tolerance by Algeria to allow the use of its airspace and territory by Malian forces,” he said.
The incident comes as tensions rise between Algeria and its southern neighbors, including Mali.
Algeria once served as a key mediator during more than a decade of conflict between Mali’s government and Tuareg rebels. But the two countries have grown apart since a military junta staged coups in 2020 and 2021, putting military personnel in charge of the country’s key institutions.
Algeria has denounced the direction that Mali’s new government has taken and its expanded efforts to quash rebellion in historically volatile parts of northern Mali. Afraid of conflict spilling over the border, Algerian officials have denounced Mali’s use of Russian mercenaries and armed drones near Tin Zaouatine, which is divided by the border separating the two countries.
But failures to curb instability in northern Mali have led to the downfall of previous governments and Mali’s Prime Minister Abdoulaye Maiga addressed the issue in a speech at the United Nations General Assembly last year, promising to respond swiftly to violence in the north.
Algeria has one of Africa’s largest militaries and has long considered itself a regional power but military leaders in neighboring Mali and Niger have distanced themselves as they’ve championed autonomy and sought new alliances, including with Russia.
Algeria did not specify who the drone it intercepted belonged to. A spokesperson for Mali’s army declined to comment when asked about Algeria’s alleging that an armed drone had crossed its border, but said the crash didn’t hurt anyone or cause property damage.
Unverified video circulating on social media showed images of an Akinci drone manufactured by Baykar downed in Tin Zaouatine. Mali purchased at least two from the Turkish company last year and has used them against armed separatists as well as fighters linked to Al-Qaeda and the Daesh group.


Three injured in Iraq when an axe-wielding man attacks an Assyrian Christian new year parade

Updated 01 April 2025
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Three injured in Iraq when an axe-wielding man attacks an Assyrian Christian new year parade

  • Witnesses said the attacker, who has not been officially identified, ran toward the crowd shouting Islamic slogans
  • He struck three people with the axe before being stopped by participants and security forces

IRBIL: The annual parade by Assyrian Christians in the Iraqi city of Dohuk to mark their new year was marred Tuesday when an axe-wielding man attacked the procession and wounded three people, witnesses and local officials said.
The parade, held every year on April 1, drew thousands of Assyrians from Iraq and across the diaspora, who marched through Dohuk in northern Iraq waving Assyrian flags and wearing colorful traditional clothes.
Witnesses said the attacker, who has not been officially identified, ran toward the crowd shouting Islamic slogans.
He struck three people with the axe before being stopped by participants and security forces. Videos circulated online showed him pinned to the ground, repeatedly shouting, “Daesh, the Daesh remains.”
The victims included a 17-year-old boy and a 75-year-old woman, both of whom suffered skull fractures. A member of the local security forces, who was operating a surveillance drone, was also injured. All three were hospitalized, local security officials said.
At the hospital where her 17-year-old son Fardi was being treated after suffering a skull injury in the attack, Athraa Abdullah told The Associated Press that her son had come with his friends in buses. He was sending photos from the celebrations shortly before his friends called to say he had been attacked, she said.
Abdullah, whose family was displaced when Daesh militants swept into their area in 2014, said, “We were already attacked and displaced by Daesh, and today we faced a terrorist attack at a place we came to for shelter.”
Janet Aprem Odisho, whose 75-year-old mother Yoniyah Khoshaba was among the wounded, said she and her mother were shopping near the parade when the attack happened.
“He was running at us with an axe,” she said. “All I remember is that he hit my mother, and I ran away when she fell. He had already attacked a young man who was bleeding in the street, then he tried to attack more people.”
Her family, originally from Baghdad, was also displaced by past violence and now lives in Ain Baqre village near the town of Alqosh.
Assyrians faced a wave of hate speech and offensive comments on social media following the incident.
Ninab Yousif Toma, a political bureau member of the Assyrian Democratic Movement (ADM), condemned the regional government in northern Iraq’s semi-autonomous Kurdish region and Iraqi federal authorities to address extremist indoctrination.
“We request both governments to review the religious and education curriculums that plant hate in people’s heads and encourage ethnic and religious extremism,” he said. “This was obviously an inhumane terrorist attack.”
However, he said that the Assyrian community had celebrated their new year, known as Akitu, in Duhok since the 1990s without incidents of violence and acknowledged the support of local Kurdish Muslim residents.
“The Kurds in Duhok serve us water and candy even when they are fasting for Ramadan. This was likely an individual, unplanned attack, and it will not scare our people,” he said, adding that the community was waiting for the results of the official investigation and planned to file an official lawsuit.
“The Middle East is governed by religion, and as minorities, we suffer double because we are both ethnically and religiously different from the majority,” he said. “But we have a cause, and we marched today to show that we have existed here for thousands of years. This attack will not stop our people.”
Despite the attack, Assyrians continued the celebrations of the holiday, which symbolizes renewal and rebirth in Assyrian culture as well as resilience and continuous existence as an indigenous group.
At one point, as the injured teenager was rushed to the hospital, some participants wrapped his head in an Assyrian flag, which was later lifted again in the parade— stained with blood but held high as a symbol of resilience.