What the intensifying US-Iran proxy war means for crisis-wracked Syria, Lebanon, Iraq and Yemen

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Updated 15 February 2024
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What the intensifying US-Iran proxy war means for crisis-wracked Syria, Lebanon, Iraq and Yemen

  • Analysts say the ailing regional economies can ill-afford a conflict resulting from Gaza escalation
  • Violence on Lebanon-Israel border could spread to vulnerable Arab states under Iran’s ‘unity of arenas’ strategy

LONDON: Israel’s military offensive in the Gaza Strip has spilled over into neighboring countries and sent shockwaves across the wider region, transforming Syria, Lebanon, Iraq and Yemen into battlefields in an escalating proxy war between the US and Iran.

This mounting instability has wrought havoc on the economies of the region, many of which were already grappling with deep recessions, spiraling inflation, high unemployment and political instability, leaving them ill-equipped to withstand a major conflict.

The International Monetary Fund revised down regional growth projections for 2024 by 0.5 percent in October following the Hamas-led attacks on Israel that saw 1,200 killed and 240 taken hostage, sparking the ongoing conflict in Gaza.

Regional gross domestic product is forecast to grow by a mere 2.9 percent this year — a scant improvement on the modest 2 percent growth seen in 2023.

With their economies stagnant, these nations could easily implode if the conflict escalates further.




Syrian fighters ride in a convoy during a military drill by the Turkish-backed “Suleiman Shah Division” in the opposition-held Afrin region of northern Syria. (AFP/File)

“Lebanon, Syria, Iraq and Yemen are all facing existing crises of one sort or another and can ill-afford to see economic investors flee due to the high risks of war,” Omar Rahman, a fellow at the Middle East Council on Global Affairs, told Arab News.

Since launching its military campaign in Gaza, Israel has simultaneously mounted a series of strikes against targets in Syria and Lebanon — many of them targeting senior members of Hamas and its fellow Iranian proxy Hezbollah.

The most recent of these attacks took place in January, when an Israeli strike on the Syrian capital Damascus hit a residential building reportedly used by members of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.

“Syria has become a battleground for great power rivalries, both regional and international,” Joshua Landis, director of both the Center for Middle East Studies and the Farzaneh Family Center for Iranian and Arabian Gulf Studies at the University of Oklahoma, told Arab News.

The increased drumbeat of Israeli strikes on Syrian military bases, weapons depots and airports, as well as the increasing number of targeted killings of leading Iranian officials, “means more death, destruction and instability,” he said.

Landis believes the escalating regional conflagration, with Israel and the US in one corner and Iran’s proxy militias in the other, has “provided cover for many local combatants to increase the pace of their attacks,” thereby compounding Syria’s multiple, overlapping predicaments.

“The Syrian regime has been bombing northwest Syrian militias in an effort to keep them from building effective state institutions in their region,” said Landis, referring to the armed opposition groups that remain in control of Idlib province and parts of Aleppo.

“Turkiye has intensified its assassination campaign against leading YPG (People’s Defense Units) officials in northeast Syria, and local Syrian communities have been up in arms against the oppression and mismanagement of local authorities.

“The Druze continue their demonstrations against the regime in the Jabal Druze, and the Arab tribes continue to militate against the Kurds in northeast Syria.”




An injured man looks at rubble and debris of a destroyed building in the aftermath of Israeli bombardment on Rafah, Gaza Strip. (AFP)

Against this backdrop, the regime of Bashar Assad in Damascus, long propped up by Iran and Hezbollah, has found itself, willingly or unwillingly, caught in the middle of this latest bout of regional turmoil.

Earlier this month, the US launched strikes against 85 targets across seven locations in Syria and Iraq in retaliation for Iran-backed militia attacks on US troops stationed in the region, including a Jan. 27 incident in which three American personnel were killed and 40 wounded at a base in Jordan close to the Syrian border.

And despite stating that “the United States does not seek conflict in the Middle East or anywhere else in the world,” President Joe Biden has vowed that its response “will continue at times and places of our choosing.”

For the Syrian public, this regional escalation spells further misery. “The economic fallout of this violence and instability has been severe,” said Landis. “The economy is frozen. Inflation continues to eat away at the spending power of Syrians, driving them into ever-greater poverty.”

According to UN figures, 90 percent of Syria’s population is grappling with poverty, with 80 percent living below the poverty line.

The UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs said in December that 16.7 million people across Syria require humanitarian assistance.

However, with multiple conflicts and crises raging across the globe, the humanitarian aid sector faces a funding crisis of its own.

The UN has requested $46 billion in donations for 2024, highlighting that the existing shortfall would leave more than 150 million people without aid.

“The UN Development Programme and World Food Programme are both hollowing out their humanitarian aid programs as the international gaze is diverted to Gaza, Sudan and other hotspots,” said Landis.

And what had initially looked like green shoots of recovery for the Syrian economy were soon buried.

Syria’s tourism sector, “which was a bright spot last year, can only be expected to take a downturn in the shadow of the Gaza war and regional instability,” said Landis.




Armed Yemeni Houthis sit on the back of an armored vehicle during an anti-Israel and anti-US rally in Sanaa. (AFP/File)

Lebanon faces similar challenges. Its border with Israel has been a flashpoint since the Gaza conflict began in October, with sporadic exchanges of fire between the Israel Defense Forces and Lebanese armed groups, including Hezbollah.

Many Lebanese fear that a full-blown conflict even more destructive than the 2006 war could easily break out, with unimaginable consequences for civilians.

Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant warned in January that “the possibility of reaching a political settlement with Lebanon is running out, and as a result, we may end up resorting to military action.”

Having been in the throes of a crippling financial crisis since 2019 and trapped in a state of political paralysis, unable to appoint a new president or build a functioning administration, Lebanon is perhaps uniquely vulnerable.

“Lebanon, which is already reeling economically and politically, faces the clearest prospect of a catastrophic military conflict, like in 2006,” said Rahman.

“That’s why there’s a reluctance from Hezbollah for major escalation with Israel in spite of its other inclinations.”

Citing the “high uncertainty” brought about by the Gaza war, the World Bank refrained from offering a forecast for Lebanon’s GDP in 2024.

The UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs, meanwhile, projected modest growth of 1.7 percent.

Eva J. Koulouriotis, a political analyst specializing in the Middle East, warned that any escalation on the Lebanese-Israeli border into all-out war “will have serious repercussions.”

This “dangerous” development “will increase the likelihood of its expansion to Syria and Iraq, as well as a greater escalation in Yemen under what Iran’s regional arms call the ‘unity of arenas’ strategy,” she told Arab News.

“Politically, in Lebanon, the state of division and disharmony between the political factions will increase and the specter of the Lebanese arena turning into a new civil war will return. This will mean a comprehensive collapse of the economy.”

Koulouriotis believes an escalation between Israel and Hezbollah, coupled with a failure to secure a ceasefire in Gaza, will only fuel the threat posed by the Iran-backed Houthi militia in Yemen to commercial shipping in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden.




Smoke billows during Israeli bombardment on the village of Khiyam in southern Lebanon. (AFP)

Since Nov. 19, the Houthis have launched more than 20 missile and drone attacks against vessels in these strategic waterways, with the stated aim of pressuring Israel to halt its military campaign in Gaza.

In early February, the US and UK launched a barrage of strikes targeting 36 Houthi positions. Houthi military spokesman Yahya Saree said Yemen’s capital Sanaa was among the sites targeted.

Having been locked in its own grinding civil war between the Houthis and the internationally recognized government since 2015, Yemen is already in a state of economic ruin, with sections of its population on the brink of famine.

“War-torn Yemen is already highly dependent on humanitarian aid, and is in the midst of long-running negotiations to bring an end to its eight-year war,” said Rahman, warning that “the current confrontation with the US and UK risks destabilizing that process and disrupting crucial flows of aid and economic redevelopment.”

The US has also launched several attacks against Iran-backed militias operating in Iraq. On Feb. 8, an American drone strike in Baghdad killed a senior commander of Kataib Hezbollah alongside two of his guards.

The Pentagon claimed that the commander was responsible for the fatal Jan. 27 attack on US forces in Jordan.

INNUMBERS

• 2.9% IMF’s GDP growth forecast for the Middle East and North Africa in 2024.

• 90% Proportion of Syria’s population grappling with poverty, according to UN figures.

• 16.7m People across Syria who require humanitarian assistance, according to UN OCHA.

• 1.7% Lebanon’s projected growth in 2024, according to UN DESA.

US military bases in the Middle East have been hit with more than 165 rocket and drone attacks since mid-October.  

Having emerged from decades of conflict and insurgency, Iraq had been showing signs of economic recovery, albeit still heavily reliant on oil exports and a bloated public sector.

Although regional instability is no doubt unwelcome at the very moment things appeared to be getting on track, Rahman believes the latest bout of regional violence offers “a mixed bag” for Iraq.

“In one sense, its oil export-dependent economy benefits from instability and higher prices,” he said. “Its Iran-aligned militias are also able to advance their agenda of pushing the US out of the country.

“On the other hand, Iraq already faces political and economic precarity and risks much in being a major flashpoint, or even frontline, in a regional war that includes Iran, as it tries to rebuild after decades of war.”

Landis, however, is optimistic about the prospects for Syria if the US is pushed out of Iraq. “If America is forced to abandon its bases in Iraq, pressure will mount to evacuate Syria as well,” he said.




Yemenis hold a pro-Palestine rally in Sanaa. (AFP/File)

“Should Damascus return to northeast Syria, possibilities for an economic revitalization will open up.

“It will bring pain to the Kurds, but most Syrians who live under government control will regain oil, gas and electricity. It will help Syria regain control of its lands and resources.”

America has some 2,500 troops stationed in Iraq, 900 in Syria, and around 3,000 in Jordan as part of a US-led coalition that seeks, according to the Pentagon, to prevent the resurgence of the terrorist group Daesh.

Although the region looks increasingly like a battlefield between the US and Iran, Koulouriotis doubts that the region will witness a direct confrontation between the two — something neither side professes to want.

“Despite the current ongoing escalation on various fronts in the region, the two main sides of the conflict in Washington and Tehran are still not interested in going towards a direct and comprehensive confrontation,” she said.


Lebanese officials discuss south Lebanon with visiting US envoy

Updated 31 sec ago
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Lebanese officials discuss south Lebanon with visiting US envoy

BEIRUT: Senior Lebanese officials said Saturday’s talks with visiting US deputy special envoy for the Middle East Morgan Ortagus were positive, focusing on south Lebanon amid a fragile truce between Israel and Hezbollah.
President Joseph Aoun and Ortagus discussed “south Lebanon, the work of the international monitoring committee and the Israeli withdrawal” from Lebanese territory, a statement from the presidency said, characterising the talks as constructive.
Prime Minister Nawaf Salam’s office, in a statement, also said the discussions with the envoy were “positive.”
Ortagus’s second visit to Lebanon after her appointment by US President Donald Trump comes as Israel continues to carry out strikes in Lebanon despite a November 27 ceasefire with Hezbollah, and as its troops remain in several points in the country’s south.
The United States chairs a committee, which also includes France, that is tasked with overseeing the ceasefire that ended more than a year of hostilities including two months of all-out war between Israel and Hezbollah.
Under the truce, Hezbollah was to redeploy its forces north of the Litani River, about 30 kilometers (20 miles) from the Israeli border, and dismantle any remaining military infrastructure in the south.
Israel was due to complete its withdrawal from Lebanon by February 18 after missing a January deadline, but it has kept troops in five places it deems “strategic.”
Lebanon’s army has been deploying in areas the Israeli military has withdrawn from.
Ortagus and Salam discussed the Lebanese army’s work in implementing United Nations Security Council Resolution 1701, which ended a 2006 war between Israel and Hezbollah and formed the basis of the November truce, his office said.
The resolution says Lebanese troops and UN peacekeepers should be the only forces in south Lebanon, and called for the disarmament of all non-state armed groups.
Ortagus also met on Saturday with parliament speaker Nabih Berri, a key Hezbollah ally, and army chief Rodolphe Haykal.
On her first visit in February, Ortagus sparked anger among Hezbollah supporters by saying the group had been “defeated by Israel,” declaring “the end of Hezbollah’s reign of terror.”
The Iran-backed group was heavily weakened during the war with Israel, but remains active.
Last month, Ortagus told Lebanese TV channel Al-Jadeed that the US and France had set up working groups that would address the border disputes between the two countries, as well as Israel’s continued presence south Lebanon.
“We want to get a political resolution, finally, to the border disputes,” Ortagus had said.


Israel is trying to destabilize Lebanon and Syria, Arab League chief laments

Updated 14 min 28 sec ago
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Israel is trying to destabilize Lebanon and Syria, Arab League chief laments

  • Aboul Gheit says targeted assassinations in Lebanon an unacceptable breach of the ceasefire agreement Israel signed late last year
  • Israel’s actions were driven by narrow domestic agendas at the expense of civilian lives and regional peace, Arab League chief adds

CAIRO: Arab League Secretary-General Ahmed Aboul Gheit on Saturday accused Israel of trying to destabilize Syria and Lebanon through military provocations, in “flagrant disregard for international legal norms.”

In a statement, Aboul Gheit said that global inaction had further emboldened Israel.

“(T)he wars waged by Israel on the occupied Palestinian territories, Lebanon and Syria have entered a new phase of complete recklessness, deliberately violating signed agreements, invading countries and killing more civilians,” said the statement carried by the Saudi Press Agency.

He said that Israel’s resumption of targeted assassinations in Lebanon was an unacceptable and condemnable breach of the ceasefire agreement it signed with Lebanon late last year. 

Aboul Gheit said that Israel’s actions were driven by narrow domestic agendas at the expense of civilian lives and regional peace.

“It seems that the Israeli war machine does not want to stop as long as the occupation leaders insist on facing their internal crises by exporting them abroad, and this situation has become clear to everyone,” he said.

According to the Gaza Ministry of Health’s count last week, more than 50,000 people have been killed and more than 113,200 wounded in Israeli attacks on Palestinian territories in retaliation against the Oct. 7, 2023 Hamas attack on southern Israel.

In Lebanon, war monitors have said that at least 3,961 people were killed and 16,520 wounded in Israel’s war with the Iran-backed Hezbollah movement from Oct. 8, 2023 to Nov. 26, 2024.

Syria’s new government accused Israel on April 3 of mounting a deadly destabilization campaign after a wave of strikes on military targets, including an airport, and a ground incursion that killed 13 people in the southern province of Daraa. 


Video shows last moments for slain Gaza aid workers, Red Crescent says

Updated 22 min 13 sec ago
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Video shows last moments for slain Gaza aid workers, Red Crescent says

  • Video appears to contradict the Israeli military’s claims, showing ambulances traveling with their headlights and emergency lights clearly flashing

GAZA: A video recovered from the cellphone of an aid worker killed in Gaza alongside other rescuers shows their final moments, according to the Palestine Red Crescent, with clearly marked ambulances and emergency lights flashing as heavy gunfire erupts.
The aid worker was among 15 humanitarian personnel who were killed on March 23 in an attack by Israeli forces, according to the United Nations and the Palestine Red Crescent Society (PRCS).
The Israeli military has said its soldiers “did not randomly attack” any ambulances, insisting they fired on “terrorists” approaching them in “suspicious vehicles.”
Military spokesman Lt. Col. Nadav Shoshani said that troops opened fire on vehicles that had no prior clearance from Israeli authorities and had their lights off.
But the video released by PRCS on Saturday appears to contradict the Israeli military’s claims, showing ambulances traveling with their headlights and emergency lights clearly flashing.
The video, apparently filmed from inside a moving vehicle, captures a red firetruck and ambulances driving through the night.
The vehicles stop beside another on the roadside, and two uniformed men exit. Moments later, intense gunfire erupts.
In the video, the voices of two medics are heard — one saying, “the vehicle, the vehicle,” and another responding: “It seems to be an accident.”
Seconds later, a volley of gunfire breaks out, and the screen goes black.
PRCS said it had found the video on the phone of Rifat Radwan, one of the deceased aid workers.
“This video unequivocally refutes the occupation’s claims that Israeli forces did not randomly target ambulances, and that some vehicles had approached suspiciously without lights or emergency markings,” PRCS said in a statement.
“The footage exposes the truth and dismantles this false narrative.”
Those killed included eight PRCS staff, six members of the Gaza civil defense agency and one employee of the UN agency for Palestinian refugees, also known as UNRWA.
Their bodies were found buried near Rafah in what the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) described as a mass grave.

This image grab from a handout video reportedly recovered from the cellphone of an aid worker killed in Gaza alongside other rescuers and released by the Palestine Red Crescent Society (PRCS)on April 5, 2025, shows a fire truck and rescuers running toward a vehicle in Rafah in the northern Gaza Strip, according to the PRCS. (AFP)



ATTACK ON AID WORKERS
OCHA has said that the first team was targeted by Israeli forces at dawn on that day. In the hours that followed, additional rescue and aid teams searching for their colleagues were also struck in a series of successive attacks.
According to the PRCS, the convoy had been dispatched in response to emergency calls from civilians trapped under bombardment in Rafah.
In the video, a medic recording the scene can be heard reciting the Islamic declaration of faith, the shahada, which Muslims traditionally say in the face of death.
“There is no God but God, Mohammed is his messenger,” he says repeatedly, his voice trembling with fear as intense gunfire continues in the background.
He is also heard saying: “Forgive me mother because I chose this way, the way of helping people.”
He then says, “accept my martyrdom, God, and forgive me.” Just before the footage ends, he is heard saying, “The Jews are coming, the Jews are coming,” referring to Israeli soldiers.
The deaths of the aid workers has sparked international condemnation.
Jonathan Whittall, the head of OCHA in the Palestinian territories, said the bodies of the humanitarian workers were “in their uniforms, still wearing gloves” when they were found.
The UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, Volker Turk, condemned the attack, raising concerns over possible “war crimes” by the Israeli military.
“I am appalled by the recent killings of 15 medical personnel and humanitarian aid workers, which raise further concerns over the commission of war crimes by the Israeli military,” Volker Turk told the UN Security Council on Thursday.
Turk called for an “independent, prompt and thorough investigation” into the attack.
An Israeli military official said the bodies had been covered “in sand and cloth” to avoid damage until coordination with international organizations could be arranged for their retrieval.
The military said it was investigating the attack.


Iran president fires deputy over pricey Antarctica trip

Updated 05 April 2025
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Iran president fires deputy over pricey Antarctica trip

  • A photo shared on social media showed Dabiri posing near the Plancius cruise ship
  • The government faced strong criticism after the photo was published

TEHRAN: Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian on Saturday dismissed his deputy for parliamentary affairs over a costly trip to Antarctica, as the country grapples with hyperinflation amid a biting economic crisis.
A photo shared on social media in recent days showed the now former vice president, Shahram Dabiri, alongside a woman identified as his wife, posing near the Plancius cruise ship.
The Dutch-flagged vessel has offered luxury expeditions to Antarctica since 2009, with one agency pricing an eight-day trip at 3,885 euros per person.
“In a context where economic pressure on the population remains high... expensive leisure trips by officials, even if paid out of their own pocket, are neither defensible nor justifiable,” the Iranian president wrote in a letter published Saturday by the official IRNA news agency, which noted that Dabiri was dismissed.
Dabiri, a 64-year-old physician by profession and a close confidant of Pezeshkian, had been appointed to the post in August.
The government faced strong criticism after the photo was published, and several of Pezeshkian’s supporters urged him to remove the official.
IRNA late last month cited a source in Dabiri’s office as saying that he had made the trip before he held a governmental position.
The controversy is another major blow for Pezeshkian, who was elected last year on a promise to revive the economy and improve the daily lives of his fellow citizens.
In early March, his Economy Minister Abdolnasser Hemmati was dismissed by parliament amid a sharp depreciation of the national currency against the dollar and soaring inflation.


Israel is trying to destabilize Lebanon and Syria: Arab League chief

Updated 05 April 2025
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Israel is trying to destabilize Lebanon and Syria: Arab League chief

  • Targeted assassinations in Lebanon an unacceptable breach of the ceasefire agreement Israel signed late last year, Aboul Gheit said

CAIRO: Arab League Secretary-General Ahmed Aboul Gheit on Saturday accused Israel of trying to destabilize Syria and Lebanon through military provocations, in “flagrant disregard for international legal norms.”

In a statement, Aboul Gheit said that global inaction had further emboldened Israel.

“(T)he wars waged by Israel on the occupied Palestinian territories, Lebanon and Syria have entered a new phase of complete recklessness, deliberately violating signed agreements, invading countries and killing more civilians,” said the statement carried by the Saudi Press Agency.

He said that Israel’s resumption of targeted assassinations in Lebanon was an unacceptable and condemnable breach of the ceasefire agreement it signed with Lebanon late last year. 

Aboul Gheit said that Israel’s actions were driven by narrow domestic agendas at the expense of civilian lives and regional peace.

“It seems that the Israeli war machine does not want to stop as long as the occupation leaders insist on facing their internal crises by exporting them abroad, and this situation has become clear to everyone,” he said.

According to the Gaza Ministry of Health’s count last week, more than 50,000 people have been killed and more than 113,200 wounded in Israeli attacks on Palestinian territories in retaliation against the Oct. 7, 2023 Hamas attack on southern Israel.

In Lebanon, war monitors have said that at least 3,961 people were killed and 16,520 wounded in Israel’s war with the Iran-backed Hezbollah movement from Oct. 8, 2023 to Nov. 26, 2024.

Syria’s new government accused Israel on April 3 of mounting a deadly destabilization campaign after a wave of strikes on military targets, including an airport, and a ground incursion that killed 13 people in the southern province of Daraa.