What the intensifying US-Iran proxy war means for crisis-wracked Syria, Lebanon, Iraq and Yemen

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Updated 15 February 2024
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What the intensifying US-Iran proxy war means for crisis-wracked Syria, Lebanon, Iraq and Yemen

  • Analysts say the ailing regional economies can ill-afford a conflict resulting from Gaza escalation
  • Violence on Lebanon-Israel border could spread to vulnerable Arab states under Iran’s ‘unity of arenas’ strategy

LONDON: Israel’s military offensive in the Gaza Strip has spilled over into neighboring countries and sent shockwaves across the wider region, transforming Syria, Lebanon, Iraq and Yemen into battlefields in an escalating proxy war between the US and Iran.

This mounting instability has wrought havoc on the economies of the region, many of which were already grappling with deep recessions, spiraling inflation, high unemployment and political instability, leaving them ill-equipped to withstand a major conflict.

The International Monetary Fund revised down regional growth projections for 2024 by 0.5 percent in October following the Hamas-led attacks on Israel that saw 1,200 killed and 240 taken hostage, sparking the ongoing conflict in Gaza.

Regional gross domestic product is forecast to grow by a mere 2.9 percent this year — a scant improvement on the modest 2 percent growth seen in 2023.

With their economies stagnant, these nations could easily implode if the conflict escalates further.




Syrian fighters ride in a convoy during a military drill by the Turkish-backed “Suleiman Shah Division” in the opposition-held Afrin region of northern Syria. (AFP/File)

“Lebanon, Syria, Iraq and Yemen are all facing existing crises of one sort or another and can ill-afford to see economic investors flee due to the high risks of war,” Omar Rahman, a fellow at the Middle East Council on Global Affairs, told Arab News.

Since launching its military campaign in Gaza, Israel has simultaneously mounted a series of strikes against targets in Syria and Lebanon — many of them targeting senior members of Hamas and its fellow Iranian proxy Hezbollah.

The most recent of these attacks took place in January, when an Israeli strike on the Syrian capital Damascus hit a residential building reportedly used by members of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.

“Syria has become a battleground for great power rivalries, both regional and international,” Joshua Landis, director of both the Center for Middle East Studies and the Farzaneh Family Center for Iranian and Arabian Gulf Studies at the University of Oklahoma, told Arab News.

The increased drumbeat of Israeli strikes on Syrian military bases, weapons depots and airports, as well as the increasing number of targeted killings of leading Iranian officials, “means more death, destruction and instability,” he said.

Landis believes the escalating regional conflagration, with Israel and the US in one corner and Iran’s proxy militias in the other, has “provided cover for many local combatants to increase the pace of their attacks,” thereby compounding Syria’s multiple, overlapping predicaments.

“The Syrian regime has been bombing northwest Syrian militias in an effort to keep them from building effective state institutions in their region,” said Landis, referring to the armed opposition groups that remain in control of Idlib province and parts of Aleppo.

“Turkiye has intensified its assassination campaign against leading YPG (People’s Defense Units) officials in northeast Syria, and local Syrian communities have been up in arms against the oppression and mismanagement of local authorities.

“The Druze continue their demonstrations against the regime in the Jabal Druze, and the Arab tribes continue to militate against the Kurds in northeast Syria.”




An injured man looks at rubble and debris of a destroyed building in the aftermath of Israeli bombardment on Rafah, Gaza Strip. (AFP)

Against this backdrop, the regime of Bashar Assad in Damascus, long propped up by Iran and Hezbollah, has found itself, willingly or unwillingly, caught in the middle of this latest bout of regional turmoil.

Earlier this month, the US launched strikes against 85 targets across seven locations in Syria and Iraq in retaliation for Iran-backed militia attacks on US troops stationed in the region, including a Jan. 27 incident in which three American personnel were killed and 40 wounded at a base in Jordan close to the Syrian border.

And despite stating that “the United States does not seek conflict in the Middle East or anywhere else in the world,” President Joe Biden has vowed that its response “will continue at times and places of our choosing.”

For the Syrian public, this regional escalation spells further misery. “The economic fallout of this violence and instability has been severe,” said Landis. “The economy is frozen. Inflation continues to eat away at the spending power of Syrians, driving them into ever-greater poverty.”

According to UN figures, 90 percent of Syria’s population is grappling with poverty, with 80 percent living below the poverty line.

The UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs said in December that 16.7 million people across Syria require humanitarian assistance.

However, with multiple conflicts and crises raging across the globe, the humanitarian aid sector faces a funding crisis of its own.

The UN has requested $46 billion in donations for 2024, highlighting that the existing shortfall would leave more than 150 million people without aid.

“The UN Development Programme and World Food Programme are both hollowing out their humanitarian aid programs as the international gaze is diverted to Gaza, Sudan and other hotspots,” said Landis.

And what had initially looked like green shoots of recovery for the Syrian economy were soon buried.

Syria’s tourism sector, “which was a bright spot last year, can only be expected to take a downturn in the shadow of the Gaza war and regional instability,” said Landis.




Armed Yemeni Houthis sit on the back of an armored vehicle during an anti-Israel and anti-US rally in Sanaa. (AFP/File)

Lebanon faces similar challenges. Its border with Israel has been a flashpoint since the Gaza conflict began in October, with sporadic exchanges of fire between the Israel Defense Forces and Lebanese armed groups, including Hezbollah.

Many Lebanese fear that a full-blown conflict even more destructive than the 2006 war could easily break out, with unimaginable consequences for civilians.

Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant warned in January that “the possibility of reaching a political settlement with Lebanon is running out, and as a result, we may end up resorting to military action.”

Having been in the throes of a crippling financial crisis since 2019 and trapped in a state of political paralysis, unable to appoint a new president or build a functioning administration, Lebanon is perhaps uniquely vulnerable.

“Lebanon, which is already reeling economically and politically, faces the clearest prospect of a catastrophic military conflict, like in 2006,” said Rahman.

“That’s why there’s a reluctance from Hezbollah for major escalation with Israel in spite of its other inclinations.”

Citing the “high uncertainty” brought about by the Gaza war, the World Bank refrained from offering a forecast for Lebanon’s GDP in 2024.

The UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs, meanwhile, projected modest growth of 1.7 percent.

Eva J. Koulouriotis, a political analyst specializing in the Middle East, warned that any escalation on the Lebanese-Israeli border into all-out war “will have serious repercussions.”

This “dangerous” development “will increase the likelihood of its expansion to Syria and Iraq, as well as a greater escalation in Yemen under what Iran’s regional arms call the ‘unity of arenas’ strategy,” she told Arab News.

“Politically, in Lebanon, the state of division and disharmony between the political factions will increase and the specter of the Lebanese arena turning into a new civil war will return. This will mean a comprehensive collapse of the economy.”

Koulouriotis believes an escalation between Israel and Hezbollah, coupled with a failure to secure a ceasefire in Gaza, will only fuel the threat posed by the Iran-backed Houthi militia in Yemen to commercial shipping in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden.




Smoke billows during Israeli bombardment on the village of Khiyam in southern Lebanon. (AFP)

Since Nov. 19, the Houthis have launched more than 20 missile and drone attacks against vessels in these strategic waterways, with the stated aim of pressuring Israel to halt its military campaign in Gaza.

In early February, the US and UK launched a barrage of strikes targeting 36 Houthi positions. Houthi military spokesman Yahya Saree said Yemen’s capital Sanaa was among the sites targeted.

Having been locked in its own grinding civil war between the Houthis and the internationally recognized government since 2015, Yemen is already in a state of economic ruin, with sections of its population on the brink of famine.

“War-torn Yemen is already highly dependent on humanitarian aid, and is in the midst of long-running negotiations to bring an end to its eight-year war,” said Rahman, warning that “the current confrontation with the US and UK risks destabilizing that process and disrupting crucial flows of aid and economic redevelopment.”

The US has also launched several attacks against Iran-backed militias operating in Iraq. On Feb. 8, an American drone strike in Baghdad killed a senior commander of Kataib Hezbollah alongside two of his guards.

The Pentagon claimed that the commander was responsible for the fatal Jan. 27 attack on US forces in Jordan.

INNUMBERS

• 2.9% IMF’s GDP growth forecast for the Middle East and North Africa in 2024.

• 90% Proportion of Syria’s population grappling with poverty, according to UN figures.

• 16.7m People across Syria who require humanitarian assistance, according to UN OCHA.

• 1.7% Lebanon’s projected growth in 2024, according to UN DESA.

US military bases in the Middle East have been hit with more than 165 rocket and drone attacks since mid-October.  

Having emerged from decades of conflict and insurgency, Iraq had been showing signs of economic recovery, albeit still heavily reliant on oil exports and a bloated public sector.

Although regional instability is no doubt unwelcome at the very moment things appeared to be getting on track, Rahman believes the latest bout of regional violence offers “a mixed bag” for Iraq.

“In one sense, its oil export-dependent economy benefits from instability and higher prices,” he said. “Its Iran-aligned militias are also able to advance their agenda of pushing the US out of the country.

“On the other hand, Iraq already faces political and economic precarity and risks much in being a major flashpoint, or even frontline, in a regional war that includes Iran, as it tries to rebuild after decades of war.”

Landis, however, is optimistic about the prospects for Syria if the US is pushed out of Iraq. “If America is forced to abandon its bases in Iraq, pressure will mount to evacuate Syria as well,” he said.




Yemenis hold a pro-Palestine rally in Sanaa. (AFP/File)

“Should Damascus return to northeast Syria, possibilities for an economic revitalization will open up.

“It will bring pain to the Kurds, but most Syrians who live under government control will regain oil, gas and electricity. It will help Syria regain control of its lands and resources.”

America has some 2,500 troops stationed in Iraq, 900 in Syria, and around 3,000 in Jordan as part of a US-led coalition that seeks, according to the Pentagon, to prevent the resurgence of the terrorist group Daesh.

Although the region looks increasingly like a battlefield between the US and Iran, Koulouriotis doubts that the region will witness a direct confrontation between the two — something neither side professes to want.

“Despite the current ongoing escalation on various fronts in the region, the two main sides of the conflict in Washington and Tehran are still not interested in going towards a direct and comprehensive confrontation,” she said.


Firefighters in Turkiye battle to contain wildfires for second day

Updated 7 sec ago
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Firefighters in Turkiye battle to contain wildfires for second day

  • Helicopters, fire extinguishing aircrafts and other vehicles, and more than a thousand people were trying to extinguish the fires

ISTANBUL: Firefighters in Turkiye are battling wildfires for a second day raging in the western province of Izmir fanned by strong winds, the forestry minister and local media said on Monday
Wildfires in Kuyucak and Doganbey areas of Izmir were fanned overnight by winds reaching 40-50 kph (25-30 mph) and four villages and two neighborhoods had been evacuated, Forestry Minister Ibrahim Yumakli said.
Helicopters, fire extinguishing aircrafts and other vehicles, and more than a thousand people were trying to extinguish the fires, Yumakli told reporters in Izmir.
Media footage showed teams using tractors with water trailers and helicopters carrying water, as smoke billowed over hills marked with charred trees.
Turkiye’s coastal regions have in recent years been ravaged by wildfires, as summers have become hotter and drier, which scientists relate to climate change.


Heatwave leaves Moroccan cities sweltering in record-breaking temperatures

Updated 29 June 2025
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Heatwave leaves Moroccan cities sweltering in record-breaking temperatures

  • In the coastal city of Casablanca, the mercury reached 39.5C (103 Fahrenheit), breaching the previous record of 38.6C set in June 2011

RABAT: Monthly temperature records have been broken across Morocco, sometimes topping seasonal norms by as much as 20 degrees Celsius, the national meteorological office said Sunday, as the North African kingdom was gripped by a heatwave.
“Our country has experienced, between Friday 27 and Saturday 28 of June, a ‘chegui’ type heatwave characterised by its intensity and geographical reach,” the meteorological office (DGM) said in a report shared with AFP.
The heatwave, which has also struck across the Strait of Gibraltar in southern Europe, has affected numerous regions in Morocco.
According to the DGM, the most significant temperature anomalies have been on the Atlantic plains and interior plateaus.
In the coastal city of Casablanca, the mercury reached 39.5C (103 Fahrenheit), breaching the previous record of 38.6C set in June 2011.
In Larache, 250 kilometers (150 miles) up the coast, a peak temperature of 43.8C was recorded, 0.9C above the previous June high, set in 2017.
And in central Morocco’s Ben Guerir, the thermometers hit 46.4C, besting the two-year-old record by 1.1C.
In total, more than 17 regions sweltered under temperatures above 40C, the DGM said, with Atlantic areas bearing the brunt.
“Coastal cities like Essaouira recorded temperatures 10C or 20C above their usual averages” for June, the DGM said.
Inland cities such as Marrakech, Fez, Meknes and Beni Mellal experienced heat 8C to 15C above the norm, with Tangier in the far north at the bottom end of that scale.
The forecast for the days ahead indicates continuing heat in the interior of Morocco due to a so-called Saharan thermal depression, an intense dome of heat over the desert.

 


Netanyahu sees ‘opportunities’ to free Gaza hostages

Updated 5 min 17 sec ago
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Netanyahu sees ‘opportunities’ to free Gaza hostages

  • Palestinian militants seized 251 hostages during Hamas’s attack on Israel on October 7, 2023

JERUSALEM: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Sunday that his country’s “victory” over Iran in their 12-day war had created “opportunities,” including for freeing hostages held in Gaza.

“Many opportunities have opened up now following this victory. First of all, to rescue the hostages,” Netanyahu said in an address to officers of the security services.

“Of course, we will also have to solve the Gaza issue, to defeat Hamas, but I estimate that we will achieve both goals,” he added, referring to his country’s campaign to crush the Palestinian militant group.

In a statement late Sunday, the main group representing hostages’ families welcomed “the fact that after 20 months, the return of the hostages has finally been designated as the top priority by the prime minister.”

“This is a very important statement that must translate into a single comprehensive deal to bring back all 50 hostages and end the fighting in Gaza,” the Hostages and Missing Families Forum said.

Palestinian militants seized 251 hostages during Hamas’s attack on Israel on October 7, 2023.

Of these, 49 are still believed to be held in Gaza, including 27 the Israeli military says are dead. Hamas also holds the body of an Israeli soldier killed there in 2014.

The forum called for the hostages’ “release, not rescue.”

“The only way to free them all is through a comprehensive deal and an end to the fighting, without rescue operations that endanger both the hostages and (Israeli) soldiers.”


Partial collapse of Sudan gold mine kills 11

Updated 29 June 2025
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Partial collapse of Sudan gold mine kills 11

  • Africa’s third-largest country is one of the continent’s top gold producers, but artisanal and small-scale gold mining accounts for the majority of gold extracted

KHARTOUM: A partial collapse of a traditional gold mine has killed 11 miners and wounded seven others in war-torn Sudan’s northeast, the state mining company said on Sunday.
Since war erupted between Sudan’s regular army and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces in April 2023, Sudan’s gold industry has largely funded both sides’ war efforts.
In a statement, the Sudanese Mineral Resources Company, or SMRC, said that the collapse occurred in an “artisanal shaft in the Kirsh Al-Fil mine” in the remote desert area of Howeid, located between the army-controlled cities of Atbara and Haiya in Sudan’s northeastern Red Sea state.
It did not mention when the collapse took place.
The war, now in its third year, has shattered Sudan’s already-fragile economy, yet the army-backed government announced record gold production of 64 tonnes in 2024.
Africa’s third-largest country is one of the continent’s top gold producers, but artisanal and small-scale gold mining accounts for the majority of gold extracted.
In contrast to larger industrial facilities, these mines lack safety measures and use hazardous chemicals that often cause widespread diseases in nearby areas.
SMRC said it had previously suspended work in the mine and “warned against its continuing activity due to its posing a great risk to life.”
Before the war, which has pushed 25 million people into dire food insecurity, artisanal mining employed more than 2 million people, according to the industry.
Today, according to mining industry sources and experts, much of the gold produced by both sides is smuggled to Chad, South Sudan, and Egypt, before reaching the industrialists.
Tens of thousands of people have been killed in Sudan, where over 10 million people are currently displaced in the world’s largest displacement crisis.
A further 4 million have fled across borders.

 


How news from the Middle East is shaping Gen Z’s mental well-being

Updated 30 June 2025
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How news from the Middle East is shaping Gen Z’s mental well-being

  • UNICEF-led study warns constant news exposure is overwhelming Gen Z, fuelling anxiety, disconnection, and growing mental health concerns
  • Despite feeling informed and engaged, many young people say nonstop digital headlines are undermining their well-being and sense of agency

DUBAI: Gen Z — those born between the late 1990s and early 2010s — consumes more news than any other type of content, according to a new study unveiled by the UNICEF-led Global Coalition for Youth Mental Health — a finding that many may find surprising.

What is less surprising, however, is the emotional toll that constant exposure to global headlines appears to be taking on young people.

The study, based on a survey of more than 5,600 people aged 14 to 25 globally, found that 60 percent of Zoomers reported feeling overwhelmed by the news. Despite these pressures, they remain determined to contribute to shaping a better future.

In a statement to Arab News, Dr. Zeinab Hijazi, UNICEF’s global lead on mental health, said such anxieties are shaped by a combination of geopolitical conflict, climate and ecological crisis, and economic uncertainty.

Screen grab from a Youtube video showing Dr. Zeinab Hijazi, UNICEF’s global lead on mental health, talking about mental health issues. 

“For many, especially young people, the weight of these overlapping crises is not abstract — it’s deeply personal, showing up in their minds, their bodies, and their sense of hope for the future,” said Hijazi.

The study, which was unveiled at the Social Innovation Summit in San Francisco, raises concerns that feelings of being overwhelmed and disempowered may be eroding young people’s sense of agency.

This is hindering their ability to help shape the future they envision for themselves and generations to come. This impact on mental health is compounded, the study states, by inadequate support and services available to young people.

Infographic courtesy of UNICEF.

“It can feel as though we are caught in a constant storm of challenges, with little control over the forces shaping our world,” said Hijazi.

Given its serious repercussions, Hijazi emphasized that mental health should not be treated as a side effect of global disruption, but as a central pillar of collective efforts to empower youth in shaping a better future.

While Gen Z tends to feel connected and engaged with world events, around 67 percent of the global cohort reported feeling overwhelmed after exposure to news or events in the world, more than news in their country (60 percent) or their community (40 percent).

Escalating geopolitical tensions and instability in the Middle East, particularly since the onset of Israel’s latest war on Gaza in 2023, have raised concerns among analysts about the long-term impact on youth and the potential for fomenting extremism in times of unrest and uncertainty.

The continuing violence against Plaestinians in Gaza is a major cause for concern about its long-term impact on the enclave's youth. (AFP).

Psychologists and media analysts believe that exposure to such news through social media platforms also increases the emotional toll on young users.

Dr. Shaima Al-Fardan, a UAE-based clinical psychologist, highlighted the impact of constant exposure to news and endless scrolling on youth development.

“It can isolate youth from real-life social interactions, which in turn hinders the development of essential social skills. It also consistently heightens negative emotions, reinforcing those emotional patterns over time.”

Caption

According to Attest, a consumer research platform, social media platforms serve as the primary news source for Gen Z. About 43 percent said they rely on social media for daily news, with TikTok leading for 21 percent of users.

While instant access to content across digital platforms can broaden young people’s awareness of global events, Al-Fardan warned that it also exposes them to misinformation and propaganda.

Infographic courtesy of consumer platform Attest.

“It is important to be taught to be critical about news they consume at this time due to their brain development, as they have still not been able to fully form the part of their brain that is responsible for rational decision-making in order to form solid opinions,” she said.

However, she observed that while young people often respond with strong initial reactions, they may quickly become desensitized. “Social media has created a culture of following trends, which makes engagement inconsistent,” she said.

The short, fast-paced nature of social media content may intensify young people’s negative emotional responses to world events.


READ MORE:

• How Israel-Hamas war in Gaza is impacting the mental health of Palestinian children

 Social media fueling ‘devastating’ kids’ mental health crisis: NGO

• Mental health care for children and young adults in refugee camps

• Fake news or free expression: Top CEO Conference panel examines the hazards of digital media age


Elizabeth Matar, assistant professor and chair of Media and Mass Communication at the American University in the Emirates, told Arab News social media platforms have expanded information sources but not necessarily deepened users’ understanding, especially on evolving issues.

“When users are following the news from a media outlet on social media, they only get a headline with an image or video clip and a caption, which does not give the full nuance from reading a full article,” said Matar.

“This is causing a problem because it just feels like headlines and just information coming in without understanding much of the context or forming an ability to piece it together.”

An Iranian woman records a video of a cultural ceremony with her smartphone at Vahdat Hall in downtown Tehran on June 10, 2025. Citizen journalism surges in recent years, as ordinary people armed with smartphones and internet access capture and share news from the ground. (NurPhoto via Getty Images)

She added that this “flood of information,” compounded by inputs from non-traditional news sources such as citizen journalists, can lead to a general sense of uncertainty, deepened by the limited depth of understanding.

“The quality, in contrast to quantity, of engagement with the news must be monitored,” said Matar. “Only then we can understand if deeper engagement with content would have the same negative effect.”

Despite growing awareness and open conversations around mental health in the digital age, many young people continue to face stigma and limited access to support services — even as their familiarity with the topic increases.

A UNICEF-led study found that 40 percent of respondents felt stigmatized when speaking openly about mental health in schools and workplaces, while only half said they knew where to access relevant support resources.

Despite resource availability, the study findings showed that many young people still lacked clarity on where to turn for help and how to build effective coping skills.

Al-Fardan said that access to mental health resources remains limited due to affordability and lack of insurance. She also observed a lack of understanding about what psychotherapy involves.

“There is a limited amount of culturally attuned, affordable, skilled therapists around as well,” she said. “In addition, many people are either unaware or hesitant to share their views, particularly when it comes to processing political information during times of unrest.”

Warning of the long-term impact of unguided online news consumption, Al-Fardan said: “Without boundaries on excessive scrolling, negative thought patterns in the brain can be reinforced, influencing one’s outlook on life and overall functioning.

“This can contribute to mental health disorders such as anxiety and depression, increased social isolation, and a lack of essential skills needed to integrate into society.”

 

 

Education and media literacy are key to addressing these challenges, along with building healthy habits, monitoring exposure, and setting boundaries around social media use.

UNICEF’s Hijazi stressed that ensuring mental health support for young people should be a responsibility shared by governments, schools, employers and the private sector.

“Understanding perception is the first step toward meaningful action,” she said.

“If we can listen more deeply — not just to the facts, but to the feelings — we can begin to design and scale solutions that are grounded in empathy and centered on human well-being.”