Why the Arab region must plan for ‘Disease X’ or the next pandemic

WHO researchers anticipate the next “Disease X” will be caused by a new virus derived from one of approximately 25 viral families which have already demonstrated the ability to infect humans. (AFP/ File)
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Updated 18 February 2024
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Why the Arab region must plan for ‘Disease X’ or the next pandemic

  • WHO and health chiefs have called for a pandemic treaty so the world can better prepare for future outbreaks
  • Gulf states fared better than most during COVID-19 pandemic, but experts believe lessons must still be learned

DUBAI: When the COVID-19 pandemic was declared in March 2020, governments worldwide were caught off guard. Having faced no health emergency of this magnitude in generations, states were left scrambling to protect their populations and shield their economies.

Now that life has largely returned to normal following years of social distancing, travel controls and trade disruption, global health experts are calling on governments to prepare for the next pandemic — ominously dubbed “Disease X.”

Such is the sense of foreboding that the mere mention of “Disease X” — x being the algebraic symbol for the unknown — at this year’s World Economic Forum sparked panic on social media as people took the hypothetical warning literally.




Experts voiced concerns about the likelihood of another pandemic in the future. (AFP/File)

Saudi Arabia’s Ministry of Health was forced to issue a statement to allay fears of a new outbreak, clarifying that “Disease X” was merely a placeholder name issued by the World Health Organization to refer to the possibility of a future pandemic.

The ministry also emphasized that cautionary statements from the WHO and scientists were only intended to promote greater global preparedness in the face of new and emerging threats to public health.

“The recurring message year after year is that humans are vulnerable to epidemics due to our coexistence with numerous viruses and germs,” the ministry said.

Indeed, although health experts were not announcing the emergence of a sinister new disease, they were voicing concerns about the likelihood of another pandemic in the future — one that could be even more deadly than COVID-19 and that the world is still ill-prepared for.

“If and when it occurs, it would have the potential to cause death and devastation,” Dr. Fabrizio Facchini, a consultant pulmonologist at Medcare Hospital Al-Safa in Dubai, told Arab News.

According to Dr. Facchini, microbiologists and epidemiologists are concerned that a new virus could emerge in the future which would have a similar impact to the deadly Spanish flu of 1918-20.




COVID-19 killed around 7 million people and infected 700 million. (AFP/File)

To put that in perspective, the Spanish flu, or “Great Influenza,” killed an estimated 50 million people and infected approximately one-third of the global population.

By comparison, COVID-19 killed around 7 million people and infected 700 million as of January 2023, according to WHO figures. The pandemic was officially declared over in May that year, although the virus continues to travel.

“Defining this potential threat as ‘Disease X’ is intended to prioritize preparations for dealing with a disease that would not have vaccinations or medications in place and could cause a significant epidemic or pandemic in the future,” Dr. Facchini said.

INNUMBERS

50m — Deaths from Spanish flu, which infected 33% of the global population (1918-20).

7m — Deaths linked to COVID-19, which infected 700m people worldwide (as of Jan. 2023).

Source: WHO, CDC

Two years into the pandemic, the WHO attributed approximately 1.4 million deaths in the Middle East and Asia to COVID-19. While some nations in the region fared better than others, experts believe there are still lessons to be learned for future outbreaks.

“Although the UAE did well in COVID-19 pandemic preparedness compared with most other countries, there are still steps they should take to prepare for a ‘Disease X’ or other possible epidemics,” Chandulal Khakhar, a Sharjah-based pharmacist, told Arab News.

Khakhar believes hospital capacity is something authorities must examine, considering the “significant strain” experienced by healthcare facilities during the pandemic. Additionally, critical care should be prioritized in health centers and hospitals.

“To do this, healthcare should begin in communities, and preventive care should be done at home,” he said.




Health experts want to see a more joined-up approach to pandemic preparation and response. (AFP/ File)

As the COVID-19 pandemic progressed, technology increasingly played a larger role in everyday lives and healthcare systems.

“Wearable devices to track health progress and community health programs should be launched,” said Khakhar. “And remote checkups such as telehealth should be improved and enforced.”

The number of COVID-19 deaths associated with countries in the Middle East and North Africa relative to other regions remained low during the pandemic, both in total and per capita terms, according to data from the Brookings Doha Center.

This trend may be influenced these countries’ relatively young populations, as well as the robustness of healthcare systems, particularly in Gulf states.

Initially, research showed the highest number of deaths per million population were in Lebanon and Iraq. However, the Gulf states experienced an uptick by June 2020, coinciding with some of the highest infection rates in the region.

By autumn, the Gulf countries reported some of the lowest fatality figures in the region, while numbers rose notably in Iraq, Jordan, Oman and Tunisia amid a second wave of deaths in the late summer.

Still, cumulative deaths have remained low in the Gulf despite many parts of the region having grappled with a surge in fatalities when subsequent waves of the virus strained healthcare systems.





Governments and stakeholders can leverage the potential of mRNA vaccine technology to expedite the development of new vaccines if and when needed. (AFP/File)

This was especially evident for Jordan, Lebanon, and Tunisia, where the overall number of deaths increased significantly from 2021 onward.

Health experts want to see a more joined-up approach to pandemic preparation and response, in part to make public health outcomes more equitable between wealthy and developing nations.

In a joint statement issued at the WEF, two dozen heads of state called for a comprehensive shift involving all sectors of government and society, forming the basis of a “pandemic treaty.”

Such an approach aims to enhance national, regional and global capacities and resilience in preparation for future pandemics.

FASTFACT

‘Disease X’ is the name given by scientists and the WHO to an unknown pathogen that could emerge in future and cause a serious international epidemic or pandemic.

Because public health and national defense experts are concerned the next pandemic could be even more damaging than COVID-19, Dr. Facchini said it was incumbent on countries to prepare for “whatever biology brings, whether it is from nature, engineering, or a laboratory accident.”

The WHO first introduced the term “Disease X” in 2017 when discussing priority diseases alongside conditions like Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever, Ebola, Lassa fever, Zika, and then COVID-19, which is considered the first “Disease X” — of more to come.

These viruses were flagged as international priorities, emphasizing the need for states to increase their research and development into their symptoms, spread, treatment and inoculation.




Millions of people have been vaccinated since the emergence of COVID-19, greatly reducing the severity of symptoms. (AFP/File)

WHO researchers anticipate the next “Disease X” will be caused by a new virus derived from one of approximately 25 viral families which have already demonstrated the ability to infect humans.

“The next pandemic pathogen may not be a coronavirus at all. Experts are looking into a range of bird flu strains due to increased transmission to and among mammals, as well as several recent human cases in various parts of the world,” Dr. Facchini said.

Millions of people have been vaccinated since the emergence of COVID-19, greatly reducing the severity of symptoms and improving survivability. However, immunization against this particular coronavirus does not guarantee protection against new ones.

“Coronaviruses have caused some of the most deadly outbreaks in recent decades,” said Dr. Facchini.

These viruses — commonly transmitted from animal hosts to humans and causing fatal respiratory infections — have been observed at least three times this century.

While populations may not be protected against the next “Disease X,” governments and stakeholders can leverage the potential of mRNA vaccine technology to expedite the development of new vaccines if and when needed.

The WHO has already initiated measures in preparation for future outbreaks, Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus revealed at this year’s WEF.




Experts suggest regular exercise, maintaining a healthy weight and refraining from smoking as helpful to reducing susceptibility to diseases. (AFP/File)

Proactive steps include the establishment of a pandemic fund and creation of a “technology transfer hub” in South Africa, in part to address vaccine inequity between high and low income countries.

Moreover, Ghebreyesus called on countries to sign the WHO’s pandemic treaty, so the world can better prepare for inevitable future outbreaks.

“The pandemic agreement can bring all the experience, all the challenges that we have faced, and all the solutions into one,” he said.

Regarding the ability to address potential outbreaks effectively, Dr. Facchini stressed the importance of early detection, surveillance and monitoring of possible diseases in both animal and human populations.

“Investing in research and development of new vaccines, global cooperation, public awareness, and education can all help to halt the next pandemic,” he said.




Global health experts are calling on governments to prepare for the next pandemic — ominously dubbed “Disease X.” (AFP/ File)

And, while individuals cannot control every aspect of their health, Dr. Facchini said basic steps can be taken to maximize personal well-being.

These include engaging in regular exercise, maintaining a healthy weight and refraining from smoking and other vices which heighten susceptibility to diseases.

“One of the lessons we learnt from the pandemic was that people in less favorable conditions fared worse,” said Dr. Facchini. “Those in worse health bore the burden of hospitalizations.”


Macron, on Egypt visit, to go near Gaza to show support for ceasefire

Updated 6 sec ago
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Macron, on Egypt visit, to go near Gaza to show support for ceasefire

  • A draft accord on treating Palestinian wounded brought out of Gaza is to be signed during the visit

PARIS: French President Emmanuel Macron will go to an Egyptian port near the Gaza Strip next week to highlight concerns over the conflict in the Palestinian territory, his office said Thursday.
Macron will go to Arish, 50 kilometers (30 miles) from Gaza, next Tuesday during a visit to Egypt, officials said.
Macron will meet humanitarian and security workers next Tuesday to stress his “constant mobilization in favor of a ceasefire,” his office said in a statement.
Arish is a transit point for international aid intended for Gaza.
But food and other supplies have not been able to use the nearby Rafah crossing from Egypt into Gaza since a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas was suspended last month.
Macron is to go to Egypt on Sunday and on Monday will meet the country’s President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi.
Egypt has been a mediator in the Israel-Hamas conflict since the Ocxtober 7, 2023 Hamas attacks and Macron will stress “the urgency” of securing a new ceasefire so that Gaza’s population is no longer has to bear a “humanitarian catastrophe,” Israeli strikes are ended and Israeli hostages in Gaza are freed, the French leader’s office said.
A draft accord on treating Palestinian wounded brought out of Gaza is to be signed during the visit.
 

 


Deadly fire on Gaza ambulances possible Israeli ‘war crimes’: UN official

Updated 15 min 36 sec ago
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Deadly fire on Gaza ambulances possible Israeli ‘war crimes’: UN official

  • Turk called for an “independent, prompt and thorough investigation” into the March 23 incident that Israeli officials have claimed was an attack on “terrorists”

UNITED NATIONS, United States: The death of 15 medics and humanitarian workers in Gaza after shots were fired at their ambulances raises further concerns of “war crimes by the Israeli army,” the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights said on Thursday.
“I am appalled by the recent killings of 15 medical personnel and humanitarian aid workers, which raise further concerns over the commission of war crimes by the Israeli military,” said Volker Turk, before the UN Security Council.
Turk called for an “independent, prompt and thorough investigation” into the March 23 incident that Israeli officials have claimed was an attack on “terrorists.”
The bodies of 15 rescuers and humanitarian workers, including eight from the Palestinian Red Crescent and one from the UN, were found near Rafah in what the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) called a “mass grave.”
OCHA had said Tuesday that the first team was killed by Israeli forces on March 23, and that other emergency and aid teams were struck one after another for several hours as they searched for their missing colleagues.
This is “one of the darkest moments in this conflict that has shaken our shared humanity to its core,” said the president of the Palestinian Red Crescent Society Younes Al-Khatib before the UN Security Council on Thursday.
“The souls of Mostafa, Ezzedine, Saleh, Riffat, Mohammad Bahloul, Mohammed Al-heila, Ashraf and Raed are asking for justice. Can you hear them?” he asked, demanding to know the fate of a 16th team member still missing.
“It’s worth noting, also, that during the communication with the team, the dispatch could hear a conversation in Hebrew between the Israeli forces and the team, meaning some were alive, still alive, when they were under the control of the Israeli forces,” Al-Khatib said.
The Israeli army has indicated it is investigating the “incident of March 23, 2025,” while claiming its soldiers had fired at “terrorists.”
Turk also condemned Israel for blocking the entry of humanitarian aid for a month and resuming its military operations, saying “the blockade and siege of Gaza,” and the subsequent suffering of civilians “constitutes a form of collective punishment.”
It “may also amount to the use of starvation as a method of war,” he said.
Turk expressed alarm over “inflammatory statements by senior Israeli officials about seizing, dividing, and controlling the territory of the Gaza Strip.”
“All of this raises serious concerns about international crimes being committed and contradicts the fundamental principle of international law regarding acquisition of territory by force.”
The war was triggered by Hamas’ attack on Israel on October 7, 2023.


Hundreds of thousands flee as Israel seizes Rafah in new Gaza ‘security zone’

Updated 03 April 2025
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Hundreds of thousands flee as Israel seizes Rafah in new Gaza ‘security zone’

  • Airstrike kills at least 27 Palestinians, including women and children, inside a school building

GAZA: Hundreds of thousands of fleeing Gazans sought shelter on Thursday in one of the biggest mass displacements of the war, as Israeli forces advanced into the ruins of the city of Rafah, part of a newly announced “security zone” they intend to seize.

A day after declaring their intention to capture large swaths of the crowded enclave, Israeli forces pushed into the city on Gaza’s southern edge, which had served as a last refuge for people fleeing other areas for much of the war.
Gaza’s Health Ministry reported at least 97 people killed in Israeli strikes in the past 24 hours, including at least 20 killed in an airstrike around dawn in Shejaia, a suburb of Gaza City in the north.

FASTFACT

The assault to capture Rafah is a significant escalation in the war, which Israel restarted last month after effectively abandoning a ceasefire in place since January.

Later on Thursday, an Israeli airstrike killed at least 27 Palestinians, including women and children, inside a school building that served as a shelter for displaced families in Gaza City, local health authorities said.
The Israeli military claimed the attack hit key Palestinian “terrorists.”
Medics said three missiles slammed into the Dar Al-Arqam school building in Tuffah neighborhood in Gaza City, and the Israeli military said it struck a command center that militants had used to plan and execute attacks against Israeli civilians and army troops.
Rafah “is gone, it is being wiped out,” a father of seven among the hundreds of thousands who had fled from Rafah to neighboring Khan Younis, said via a chat app.
“They are knocking down what is left standing of houses and property,” said the man.
The assault to capture Rafah is a significant escalation in the war, which Israel restarted last month after effectively abandoning a ceasefire in place since January.
In Shejaia in the north, one of the districts where Israel has ordered the population to leave, hundreds of residents streamed out on Thursday, some carrying their belongings as they walked, others on donkey carts and bikes or in vans.
“I want to die. Let them kill us and free us from this life. We’re not living, we’re dead,” said Umm Aaed Bardaa.
In Khan Younis, where a strike killed several people, Adel Abu Fakher was checking the damage to his tent: “There’s nothing left for us. We’re being killed while asleep,” he said.
Israel has not spelled out its long-term aims for the security zone its troops are now seizing.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said troops were taking an area he called the “Morag Axis,” a reference to an abandoned former Israeli settlement between Rafah and Khan Younis.
Gazans who had returned to homes in the ruins during the ceasefire have now been ordered to flee communities on the northern and southern edges of the strip.
They fear Israel intends to depopulate those areas indefinitely, leaving many hundreds of thousands of people permanently homeless while Israel seizes some of Gaza’s last agricultural land and critical water infrastructure.
Since the first phase of the ceasefire expired at the start of March with no agreement to prolong it, Israel has imposed a total blockade on all goods for Gaza’s 2.3 million residents, recreating what international organizations call a humanitarian catastrophe.
Israel’s military said on Thursday it was investigating the deaths of 15 Palestinian aid workers found buried in a shallow grave in March near Red Crescent vehicles, an incident that caused global alarm.
The military said troops fired on the cars, believing they carried fighters.
Israel’s stated goal since the start of the war has been the destruction of the Hamas militant group, which ran Gaza for nearly two decades.
But with no effort made to establish an alternative administration, Hamas returned to control during the ceasefire.
Fighters still hold 59 dead and living hostages Israel says must be handed over to extend the truce temporarily; Hamas says it will free them only under a deal that permanently ends the war.
Israeli leaders say they have been encouraged by signs of protest in Gaza against Hamas, with hundreds of people demonstrating in north Gaza’s Beit Lahiya on Wednesday. Hamas calls the protesters collaborators and says Israel is behind them.
The war began with an attack on Israeli communities on Oct. 7, 2023 with gunmen taking more than 250 hostages, according to Israeli tallies.
Israel’s campaign has so far killed more than 50,000 Palestinians, Gaza health authorities say.
Rafah residents said most of the local population had followed Israel’s order to leave as Israeli strikes toppled buildings there.
However, a strike on the main road between Khan Younis and Rafah stopped most movement between the cities.
The movement of people and traffic along the western coastal road near Morag was also limited by bombardment.
“Others stayed because they don’t know where to go, or got fed up of being displaced several times. We are afraid they might be killed or at best detained,” said Basem, a resident of Rafah who declined to give a second name.

 


Lebanese leaders reach consensus on border demarcation to present to US envoy

Updated 03 April 2025
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Lebanese leaders reach consensus on border demarcation to present to US envoy

  • President Aoun tells top military officers: Lebanon’s interests are above everything else
  • Joseph Aoun: It is the state that protects Lebanon, not its sects

BEIRUT: Lebanese leaders have reached a unified position on border demarcation to present to Morgan Ortagus, the US envoy, who is scheduled to arrive in Beirut before the end of the week.

President Joseph Aoun, Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, and Prime Minister Nawaf Salam, agreed that there “will be no negotiations with the Israeli side regarding (a) prisoner swap or withdrawal from the Lebanese hills still occupied by the Israeli Army,” a source in the government told Arab News on Thursday.

“However, Lebanon is open to discussing disputed land border points,” the source added.

“Regardless of the US envoy’s proposals, the Lebanese stance remains unchanged,” said the source, who clarified that the Lebanese Army “is fulfilling its duties by being deployed south of the Litani River and confiscating weapons in the border area, as acknowledged by the US side overseeing the ceasefire monitoring committee and the UNIFIL forces.”

The source said that the military had made significant progress on the issue, destroying weapons and ammunition seized from Hezbollah sites.

Aoun told top security officials on Thursday that Lebanon’s interests comes above anything else.

He was speaking during a visit to the leadership of the Internal Security Forces and the General Security Directorate.

“We have a great opportunity to seize at all levels, and we must show the people that we are mature enough to build the state and that we will build it,” he said.

The president called on security bodies to “remain unaffiliated with anyone, serve only Lebanon’s interests, and enforce the law,” noting that “the world is ready to help us, but we must first help ourselves.”

Aoun stated: “Lebanon’s interest comes above anything else. It is the state that protects Lebanon, not its sects. Parties and sects prioritize their interests, whereas your duty is to serve Lebanon.

“You must reject any demands or interference that might harm the nation’s interests and prompt people to respect the law, keeping in mind that no request outside the law will be tolerated.”

Also on Thursday, Maronite Patriarch Bechara Al-Rahi, the highest Maronite religious authority in Lebanon, said the time “has come to unify weapons in Lebanon, as stipulated in the Taif Agreement.”

He also told the Lebanese Editors Syndicate that the military “needs strengthening and support from other nations, but the solution now is diplomatic, as we are incapable of engaging in war, and no one can confront Israel.

“What has the resistance achieved with all its weapons against the Israeli war machine,” he asked, adding “now is not the time for normalization with Israel, as there are other issues that must be addressed first, such as border demarcation and disarmament.”

Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz said Israel would not withdraw from the five positions it controls in Lebanon.

He was speaking during a visit to an Israeli military site in southern Lebanon — one of the five hills still occupied since the ceasefire declaration in November.

At the site, which is near the Israeli settlement of Margaliot, Katz stated Israel’s presence at the five locations will be determined not by time but by the situation on the ground.

“Only if Hezbollah disarms and withdraws from the border can we discuss the withdrawal of the Israeli Army from these positions, and this matter is being coordinated with the Americans,” he said.

Katz anticipated “an increase in activity among Palestinian organizations, including Hamas, in Lebanon and Syria.”

He stated: “We are working to prevent the arming of Hezbollah and Palestinian organizations. The challenge will begin and intensify.”

Katz claimed that Hezbollah “is not a protector of Lebanon.”

He added: “The Iranians now realize that it is no longer capable of defending them.”

Elsewhere, an Israeli drone targeted a vehicle on the main road between Bint Jbeil and Yaroun in the border area.

The drone struck the vehicle from behind, resulting in two injuries, the Lebanese Ministry of Health said.

The Israeli military conducted airstrikes around Naqoura and one strike in the town’s center, targeting pre-fabricated homes as replacements for the destroyed houses and facilities.

These pre-fabricated facilities were being used to meet citizens’ needs, serving as a substitute for the municipal building, destroyed by Israel following the ceasefire, said Naqoura Mayor Abbas Awada.

He highlighted that recent aggression occurring in proximity to UNIFIL headquarters falls “under the jurisdiction of the five-member ceasefire monitoring committee and UNIFIL forces.”

Hezbollah’s Islamic Health Authority reported that Israeli strikes destroyed a “newly established civil defense center and damaged ambulances and firefighting vehicles.”

Meanwhile, the Lebanese Armed Forces have taken proactive measures, with military units removing “engineering obstacles placed by Israeli forces inside Lebanese territory” near Al-Labouna in the Tyre region.

The military also closed an unauthorized dirt road created by Israeli units in the same area.

In an official statement, the Lebanese Army Command affirmed its ongoing commitment to “addressing Israeli violations through close coordination with the ceasefire monitoring mechanism and UNIFIL.”

The Army Command condemned Israel’s “persistent violations of Lebanese sovereignty and targeting of civilians across multiple regions.”

In another development, UNIFIL Western Sector Commander Gen. Nicola Mandolisi conducted his first meeting with Khirbet Selem Mayor Mohammed Rahhal.

Their joint statement highlighted “UNIFIL’s commitment to facilitating the safe return of displaced residents and supporting Lebanese military operations through strategic partnerships with the Fifth Brigade and the Second and Fifth Rapid Intervention Regiments, key components in regional stabilization efforts.”


South Sudan clashes kill 30: local official

Updated 03 April 2025
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South Sudan clashes kill 30: local official

  • The attack in northern Ruweng Administrative Area began earlier in the week
  • Local media reported that some of those killed were members of the armed groups

JUBA: At least 30 people were killed when a northern South Sudanese town was briefly overrun by an armed youth group, a local official said Thursday, following a cattle raid.
Clashes involving pastoralists and settled farming communities are common in the world’s youngest country, but this incident comes as tensions rise over South Sudan’s fragile political situation.
The attack in northern Ruweng Administrative Area began earlier in the week when a group of armed youth stole lambs before they were scared off by security forces, said Simon Chol Mialith, the local Minister of Information.
The following day, he told AFP, the group returned in greater numbers and attacked Abiemnom, and although “the youth and the security forces tried to defend the town, they were overrun by the Mayom armed youth.”
On Wednesday the South Sudan People’s Defense Force (SSPDF) drove the group from the settlement, Mialith said, where calm has now been restored.
“The number has risen to 30 people confirmed dead and over 40 persons wounded,” he said, without giving further details.
Local media reported that some of those killed were members of the armed groups, but AFP was unable to confirm this.
The incident comes as forces allied to President Salva Kiir and First Vice President Riek Machar clash across the country, sparking regional concern and threatening a fragile peace deal in 2018 that ended a five-year civil war.
South Sudan has been bedevilled by instability and insecurity since independence in 2011, and despite its natural oil resources remains deeply impoverished.