Why the Arab region must plan for ‘Disease X’ or the next pandemic

WHO researchers anticipate the next “Disease X” will be caused by a new virus derived from one of approximately 25 viral families which have already demonstrated the ability to infect humans. (AFP/ File)
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Updated 18 February 2024
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Why the Arab region must plan for ‘Disease X’ or the next pandemic

  • WHO and health chiefs have called for a pandemic treaty so the world can better prepare for future outbreaks
  • Gulf states fared better than most during COVID-19 pandemic, but experts believe lessons must still be learned

DUBAI: When the COVID-19 pandemic was declared in March 2020, governments worldwide were caught off guard. Having faced no health emergency of this magnitude in generations, states were left scrambling to protect their populations and shield their economies.

Now that life has largely returned to normal following years of social distancing, travel controls and trade disruption, global health experts are calling on governments to prepare for the next pandemic — ominously dubbed “Disease X.”

Such is the sense of foreboding that the mere mention of “Disease X” — x being the algebraic symbol for the unknown — at this year’s World Economic Forum sparked panic on social media as people took the hypothetical warning literally.




Experts voiced concerns about the likelihood of another pandemic in the future. (AFP/File)

Saudi Arabia’s Ministry of Health was forced to issue a statement to allay fears of a new outbreak, clarifying that “Disease X” was merely a placeholder name issued by the World Health Organization to refer to the possibility of a future pandemic.

The ministry also emphasized that cautionary statements from the WHO and scientists were only intended to promote greater global preparedness in the face of new and emerging threats to public health.

“The recurring message year after year is that humans are vulnerable to epidemics due to our coexistence with numerous viruses and germs,” the ministry said.

Indeed, although health experts were not announcing the emergence of a sinister new disease, they were voicing concerns about the likelihood of another pandemic in the future — one that could be even more deadly than COVID-19 and that the world is still ill-prepared for.

“If and when it occurs, it would have the potential to cause death and devastation,” Dr. Fabrizio Facchini, a consultant pulmonologist at Medcare Hospital Al-Safa in Dubai, told Arab News.

According to Dr. Facchini, microbiologists and epidemiologists are concerned that a new virus could emerge in the future which would have a similar impact to the deadly Spanish flu of 1918-20.




COVID-19 killed around 7 million people and infected 700 million. (AFP/File)

To put that in perspective, the Spanish flu, or “Great Influenza,” killed an estimated 50 million people and infected approximately one-third of the global population.

By comparison, COVID-19 killed around 7 million people and infected 700 million as of January 2023, according to WHO figures. The pandemic was officially declared over in May that year, although the virus continues to travel.

“Defining this potential threat as ‘Disease X’ is intended to prioritize preparations for dealing with a disease that would not have vaccinations or medications in place and could cause a significant epidemic or pandemic in the future,” Dr. Facchini said.

INNUMBERS

50m — Deaths from Spanish flu, which infected 33% of the global population (1918-20).

7m — Deaths linked to COVID-19, which infected 700m people worldwide (as of Jan. 2023).

Source: WHO, CDC

Two years into the pandemic, the WHO attributed approximately 1.4 million deaths in the Middle East and Asia to COVID-19. While some nations in the region fared better than others, experts believe there are still lessons to be learned for future outbreaks.

“Although the UAE did well in COVID-19 pandemic preparedness compared with most other countries, there are still steps they should take to prepare for a ‘Disease X’ or other possible epidemics,” Chandulal Khakhar, a Sharjah-based pharmacist, told Arab News.

Khakhar believes hospital capacity is something authorities must examine, considering the “significant strain” experienced by healthcare facilities during the pandemic. Additionally, critical care should be prioritized in health centers and hospitals.

“To do this, healthcare should begin in communities, and preventive care should be done at home,” he said.




Health experts want to see a more joined-up approach to pandemic preparation and response. (AFP/ File)

As the COVID-19 pandemic progressed, technology increasingly played a larger role in everyday lives and healthcare systems.

“Wearable devices to track health progress and community health programs should be launched,” said Khakhar. “And remote checkups such as telehealth should be improved and enforced.”

The number of COVID-19 deaths associated with countries in the Middle East and North Africa relative to other regions remained low during the pandemic, both in total and per capita terms, according to data from the Brookings Doha Center.

This trend may be influenced these countries’ relatively young populations, as well as the robustness of healthcare systems, particularly in Gulf states.

Initially, research showed the highest number of deaths per million population were in Lebanon and Iraq. However, the Gulf states experienced an uptick by June 2020, coinciding with some of the highest infection rates in the region.

By autumn, the Gulf countries reported some of the lowest fatality figures in the region, while numbers rose notably in Iraq, Jordan, Oman and Tunisia amid a second wave of deaths in the late summer.

Still, cumulative deaths have remained low in the Gulf despite many parts of the region having grappled with a surge in fatalities when subsequent waves of the virus strained healthcare systems.





Governments and stakeholders can leverage the potential of mRNA vaccine technology to expedite the development of new vaccines if and when needed. (AFP/File)

This was especially evident for Jordan, Lebanon, and Tunisia, where the overall number of deaths increased significantly from 2021 onward.

Health experts want to see a more joined-up approach to pandemic preparation and response, in part to make public health outcomes more equitable between wealthy and developing nations.

In a joint statement issued at the WEF, two dozen heads of state called for a comprehensive shift involving all sectors of government and society, forming the basis of a “pandemic treaty.”

Such an approach aims to enhance national, regional and global capacities and resilience in preparation for future pandemics.

FASTFACT

‘Disease X’ is the name given by scientists and the WHO to an unknown pathogen that could emerge in future and cause a serious international epidemic or pandemic.

Because public health and national defense experts are concerned the next pandemic could be even more damaging than COVID-19, Dr. Facchini said it was incumbent on countries to prepare for “whatever biology brings, whether it is from nature, engineering, or a laboratory accident.”

The WHO first introduced the term “Disease X” in 2017 when discussing priority diseases alongside conditions like Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever, Ebola, Lassa fever, Zika, and then COVID-19, which is considered the first “Disease X” — of more to come.

These viruses were flagged as international priorities, emphasizing the need for states to increase their research and development into their symptoms, spread, treatment and inoculation.




Millions of people have been vaccinated since the emergence of COVID-19, greatly reducing the severity of symptoms. (AFP/File)

WHO researchers anticipate the next “Disease X” will be caused by a new virus derived from one of approximately 25 viral families which have already demonstrated the ability to infect humans.

“The next pandemic pathogen may not be a coronavirus at all. Experts are looking into a range of bird flu strains due to increased transmission to and among mammals, as well as several recent human cases in various parts of the world,” Dr. Facchini said.

Millions of people have been vaccinated since the emergence of COVID-19, greatly reducing the severity of symptoms and improving survivability. However, immunization against this particular coronavirus does not guarantee protection against new ones.

“Coronaviruses have caused some of the most deadly outbreaks in recent decades,” said Dr. Facchini.

These viruses — commonly transmitted from animal hosts to humans and causing fatal respiratory infections — have been observed at least three times this century.

While populations may not be protected against the next “Disease X,” governments and stakeholders can leverage the potential of mRNA vaccine technology to expedite the development of new vaccines if and when needed.

The WHO has already initiated measures in preparation for future outbreaks, Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus revealed at this year’s WEF.




Experts suggest regular exercise, maintaining a healthy weight and refraining from smoking as helpful to reducing susceptibility to diseases. (AFP/File)

Proactive steps include the establishment of a pandemic fund and creation of a “technology transfer hub” in South Africa, in part to address vaccine inequity between high and low income countries.

Moreover, Ghebreyesus called on countries to sign the WHO’s pandemic treaty, so the world can better prepare for inevitable future outbreaks.

“The pandemic agreement can bring all the experience, all the challenges that we have faced, and all the solutions into one,” he said.

Regarding the ability to address potential outbreaks effectively, Dr. Facchini stressed the importance of early detection, surveillance and monitoring of possible diseases in both animal and human populations.

“Investing in research and development of new vaccines, global cooperation, public awareness, and education can all help to halt the next pandemic,” he said.




Global health experts are calling on governments to prepare for the next pandemic — ominously dubbed “Disease X.” (AFP/ File)

And, while individuals cannot control every aspect of their health, Dr. Facchini said basic steps can be taken to maximize personal well-being.

These include engaging in regular exercise, maintaining a healthy weight and refraining from smoking and other vices which heighten susceptibility to diseases.

“One of the lessons we learnt from the pandemic was that people in less favorable conditions fared worse,” said Dr. Facchini. “Those in worse health bore the burden of hospitalizations.”


Paramilitary shelling on camp kills 8 in Sudan’s Darfur: rescuers

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Paramilitary shelling on camp kills 8 in Sudan’s Darfur: rescuers

The bombardment hit Abu Shouk camp, which hosts tens of thousands of displaced people
Thursday’s offensive comes just days after a series of attacks by the RSF targeted another battleground region of Sudan

PORT SUDAN: Paramilitary forces shelled a displacement camp in Sudan’s Darfur region on Thursday, killing eight civilians and injuring others, a local rescue group said.

The bombardment hit Abu Shouk camp, which hosts tens of thousands of displaced people on the outskirts of El Fasher, the besieged capital of North Darfur.

El-Fasher remains the last major stronghold in Sudan’s western Darfur region not under the control of the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), who have been at war with the regular army since April 2023.

“The Abu Shouk camp witnessed heavy artillery bombardment by the RSF... killing eight people,” the camp’s Emergency Response Room said in a statement.

In recent weeks, El-Fasher, which has been under paramilitary siege since last year, has been locked in intense fighting between warring sides in a region also gripped by famine.

Thursday’s offensive comes just days after a series of attacks by the RSF targeted another battleground region of Sudan.

More than 450 people, including 35 children, were killed in several villages of North Kordofan, southwest of the capital Khartoum, according to a statement released this week by the UN’s children agency.

“No child should ever experience such horrors,” said UNICEF Executive Director Catherine Russell. “Violence against children is unconscionable and must end now.”

On Sunday, the RSF claimed to have killed more than 470 army personnel near the town of El-Obeid, also in North Kordofan, in a statement posted to its Telegram channel.

Independent verification of casualties in Sudan remains difficult due to restricted access to its conflict zones.

Now in its third year, the conflict has killed tens of thousands and forced millions to flee, creating what the United Nations describes as the world’s largest displacement crisis.

In December last year, famine was officially declared in three displacement camps near El-Fasher, namely Zamzam, Abu Shouk and Al-Salam, according to the UN.

Since the Sudanese army regained control of the capital Khartoum in March, the RSF has shifted its operations westward, focusing on Darfur and Kordofan in a bid to consolidate territorial gains.

In April, RSF fighters seized the Zamzam displacement camp, located near Abu Shouk.

The assault forced nearly 400,000 people to flee, according to UN figures, effectively emptying one of the country’s largest camps for the displaced.

Sudanese analyst Mohaned el-Nour told AFP the RSF aims to redefine its role in the conflict.

“Their goal is no longer to be seen as a militia, but as an alternative government in western Sudan, undermining the legitimacy of the authorities in Port Sudan.”

He added that the recent surge in violence in North Kordofan was likely intended to divert the army’s attention from El Fasher, where the military is trying “at all costs” to maintain.

Europe’s largest missile maker supplying parts to Israel for bombs used in Gaza

Updated 43 min 28 sec ago
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Europe’s largest missile maker supplying parts to Israel for bombs used in Gaza

  • GBU-39 bombs identified as having killed civilians, including children
  • UN special rapporteur: ‘Genocide continues because it is lucrative for many’

LONDON: Parts made by Europe’s largest missile maker are being used in bombs launched by Israel in airstrikes on Gaza, an investigation has found.

A joint report by The Guardian, Disclose and Follow the Money discovered that components produced by MBDA are used to construct the GBU-39 bomb. 

Wing-like parts, called Diamond-Blacks and manufactured at MBDA’s plant in Alabama, are fitted to the 250 lb GBU-39, which is made by Boeing, allowing the bomb to manoeuver mid-air toward targets. 

The GBU-39 is sent to Israel as part of the US military aid program, bought directly from Boeing and transferred from American military stocks.
Deployed aerially from fighter jets over combat zones, an estimated 4,800 have been sent to Israel since the Gaza war began in October 2023.

Open-source analysis found that the weapon has been deployed at least 24 times in Gaza in incidents where civilians, including children, were killed.
The attacks often came at night, targeting shelters including school buildings, camps and a mosque. At least 500 people have been killed in the identified cases, including more than 100 children.

The UN and Amnesty International have both raised concerns that a number of incidents involving GBU-39s amount to war crimes.

Donatella Rovera, a senior investigator at Amnesty, told The Guardian: “Those launching attacks have a legal duty to take precautions so as to avoid harming civilians — even in cases where there may be a military target at the location — including by not striking locations full of civilians.”

Last year, Foreign Secretary David Lammy suspended a number of arms export licenses to Israel over fears that UK-made equipment could be used to commit “serious violations” of international law in Gaza.

But campaigners told The Guardian that the use of Diamond-Black wings, manufactured in the US, shows the limits of the UK government’s measures, which cannot ban the export of items made overseas by sister companies of British firms.

Francesca Albanese, UN special rapporteur on human rights in the occupied Palestinian territories, said in a report last month that numerous private sector firms continue to arm Israel despite warnings of human rights violations, war crimes and genocide in Gaza. 

“The present report shows why the genocide carried out by Israel continues: because it is lucrative for many,” she added.

Sam Perlo-Freeman, research coordinator at Campaign Against the Arms Trade, told The Guardian: “We would support the UK government taking all actions that are within their powers to stop the genocide.
“Beyond an arms embargo, this includes sanctions on companies arming Israel, banning UK investments in such companies.”

MBDA’s code of ethics states that it is “committed to taking the utmost care in identifying and preventing negative direct and indirect impacts our activities may have on human rights, fundamental freedoms and people health and safety.”


Israeli strikes on south Lebanon kill two

Updated 17 July 2025
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Israeli strikes on south Lebanon kill two

  • Two people were killed Thursday in separate Israeli strikes on south Lebanon, the Lebanese health ministry said

BEIRUT: Two people were killed Thursday in separate Israeli strikes on south Lebanon, the Lebanese health ministry said, in the latest attacks despite a ceasefire between Israel and Iran-backed Hezbollah.
The ministry said that “an Israeli drone strike targeted a car” in the Nabatiyeh district, killing one person and wounding two others.
Another strike “targeted a truck in the town of Naqura” in southern Lebanon “resulting in one martyr,” it said in a statement.
The Israeli army did not immediately comment on the incidents.
Israel has repeatedly bombed Lebanon despite a November ceasefire seeking to end over a year of hostilities with Lebanese armed group Hezbollah.
Under the agreement, Hezbollah was to pull its fighters back north of the Litani river, about 30 kilometers (20 miles) from the Israeli border, leaving the Lebanese army and United Nations peacekeepers as the only armed parties in the region.
Israel was required to fully withdraw its troops from the country but has kept them in five places it deems strategic.


Belgian court orders regional government to stop military exports to Israel

Updated 17 July 2025
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Belgian court orders regional government to stop military exports to Israel

  • Belgian court orders regional government to stop military exports to Israel, Belga reports

BRUSSELS: A court in Brussels on Thursday ordered the regional Flemish government to stop all transit of military equipment to Israel, Belgian news agency Belga reported.
The region is home to the Antwerp-Bruges port — one of the largest in Europe.


Israel to boost defense spending by $12.5 billion amid regional conflicts on multiple fronts

Updated 17 July 2025
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Israel to boost defense spending by $12.5 billion amid regional conflicts on multiple fronts

  • The budget is expected to enable the Defense Ministry to advance urgent deals critical to national security, a statement said

JERUSALEM: Israel will increase defense spending by 42 billion shekels ($12.5 billion) this year and in 2026, the finance and defense ministries announced on Thursday, citing mounting security challenges.

The budget agreement will enable the Defense Ministry to "advance urgent and essential procurement deals critical to national security," the ministries said in a joint statement.

The funding boost comes as Israel remains engaged on multiple regional fronts, including its ongoing war against Hamas in Gaza, marked by heavy casualties and widespread destruction. As well as cross-border hostilities with Hezbollah in southern Lebanon, and recent strikes with Iran last month in an unprecedented escalation between the two countries.

Israel has also intensified its airstrikes in Syria, targeting sites near the presidential palace and the defense ministry in central Damascus. Meanwhile, it has carried out a series of aerial attacks on Houthi positions in Yemen in response to Houthi attacks.