Why the Arab region must plan for ‘Disease X’ or the next pandemic

WHO researchers anticipate the next “Disease X” will be caused by a new virus derived from one of approximately 25 viral families which have already demonstrated the ability to infect humans. (AFP/ File)
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Updated 18 February 2024
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Why the Arab region must plan for ‘Disease X’ or the next pandemic

  • WHO and health chiefs have called for a pandemic treaty so the world can better prepare for future outbreaks
  • Gulf states fared better than most during COVID-19 pandemic, but experts believe lessons must still be learned

DUBAI: When the COVID-19 pandemic was declared in March 2020, governments worldwide were caught off guard. Having faced no health emergency of this magnitude in generations, states were left scrambling to protect their populations and shield their economies.

Now that life has largely returned to normal following years of social distancing, travel controls and trade disruption, global health experts are calling on governments to prepare for the next pandemic — ominously dubbed “Disease X.”

Such is the sense of foreboding that the mere mention of “Disease X” — x being the algebraic symbol for the unknown — at this year’s World Economic Forum sparked panic on social media as people took the hypothetical warning literally.




Experts voiced concerns about the likelihood of another pandemic in the future. (AFP/File)

Saudi Arabia’s Ministry of Health was forced to issue a statement to allay fears of a new outbreak, clarifying that “Disease X” was merely a placeholder name issued by the World Health Organization to refer to the possibility of a future pandemic.

The ministry also emphasized that cautionary statements from the WHO and scientists were only intended to promote greater global preparedness in the face of new and emerging threats to public health.

“The recurring message year after year is that humans are vulnerable to epidemics due to our coexistence with numerous viruses and germs,” the ministry said.

Indeed, although health experts were not announcing the emergence of a sinister new disease, they were voicing concerns about the likelihood of another pandemic in the future — one that could be even more deadly than COVID-19 and that the world is still ill-prepared for.

“If and when it occurs, it would have the potential to cause death and devastation,” Dr. Fabrizio Facchini, a consultant pulmonologist at Medcare Hospital Al-Safa in Dubai, told Arab News.

According to Dr. Facchini, microbiologists and epidemiologists are concerned that a new virus could emerge in the future which would have a similar impact to the deadly Spanish flu of 1918-20.




COVID-19 killed around 7 million people and infected 700 million. (AFP/File)

To put that in perspective, the Spanish flu, or “Great Influenza,” killed an estimated 50 million people and infected approximately one-third of the global population.

By comparison, COVID-19 killed around 7 million people and infected 700 million as of January 2023, according to WHO figures. The pandemic was officially declared over in May that year, although the virus continues to travel.

“Defining this potential threat as ‘Disease X’ is intended to prioritize preparations for dealing with a disease that would not have vaccinations or medications in place and could cause a significant epidemic or pandemic in the future,” Dr. Facchini said.

INNUMBERS

50m — Deaths from Spanish flu, which infected 33% of the global population (1918-20).

7m — Deaths linked to COVID-19, which infected 700m people worldwide (as of Jan. 2023).

Source: WHO, CDC

Two years into the pandemic, the WHO attributed approximately 1.4 million deaths in the Middle East and Asia to COVID-19. While some nations in the region fared better than others, experts believe there are still lessons to be learned for future outbreaks.

“Although the UAE did well in COVID-19 pandemic preparedness compared with most other countries, there are still steps they should take to prepare for a ‘Disease X’ or other possible epidemics,” Chandulal Khakhar, a Sharjah-based pharmacist, told Arab News.

Khakhar believes hospital capacity is something authorities must examine, considering the “significant strain” experienced by healthcare facilities during the pandemic. Additionally, critical care should be prioritized in health centers and hospitals.

“To do this, healthcare should begin in communities, and preventive care should be done at home,” he said.




Health experts want to see a more joined-up approach to pandemic preparation and response. (AFP/ File)

As the COVID-19 pandemic progressed, technology increasingly played a larger role in everyday lives and healthcare systems.

“Wearable devices to track health progress and community health programs should be launched,” said Khakhar. “And remote checkups such as telehealth should be improved and enforced.”

The number of COVID-19 deaths associated with countries in the Middle East and North Africa relative to other regions remained low during the pandemic, both in total and per capita terms, according to data from the Brookings Doha Center.

This trend may be influenced these countries’ relatively young populations, as well as the robustness of healthcare systems, particularly in Gulf states.

Initially, research showed the highest number of deaths per million population were in Lebanon and Iraq. However, the Gulf states experienced an uptick by June 2020, coinciding with some of the highest infection rates in the region.

By autumn, the Gulf countries reported some of the lowest fatality figures in the region, while numbers rose notably in Iraq, Jordan, Oman and Tunisia amid a second wave of deaths in the late summer.

Still, cumulative deaths have remained low in the Gulf despite many parts of the region having grappled with a surge in fatalities when subsequent waves of the virus strained healthcare systems.





Governments and stakeholders can leverage the potential of mRNA vaccine technology to expedite the development of new vaccines if and when needed. (AFP/File)

This was especially evident for Jordan, Lebanon, and Tunisia, where the overall number of deaths increased significantly from 2021 onward.

Health experts want to see a more joined-up approach to pandemic preparation and response, in part to make public health outcomes more equitable between wealthy and developing nations.

In a joint statement issued at the WEF, two dozen heads of state called for a comprehensive shift involving all sectors of government and society, forming the basis of a “pandemic treaty.”

Such an approach aims to enhance national, regional and global capacities and resilience in preparation for future pandemics.

FASTFACT

‘Disease X’ is the name given by scientists and the WHO to an unknown pathogen that could emerge in future and cause a serious international epidemic or pandemic.

Because public health and national defense experts are concerned the next pandemic could be even more damaging than COVID-19, Dr. Facchini said it was incumbent on countries to prepare for “whatever biology brings, whether it is from nature, engineering, or a laboratory accident.”

The WHO first introduced the term “Disease X” in 2017 when discussing priority diseases alongside conditions like Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever, Ebola, Lassa fever, Zika, and then COVID-19, which is considered the first “Disease X” — of more to come.

These viruses were flagged as international priorities, emphasizing the need for states to increase their research and development into their symptoms, spread, treatment and inoculation.




Millions of people have been vaccinated since the emergence of COVID-19, greatly reducing the severity of symptoms. (AFP/File)

WHO researchers anticipate the next “Disease X” will be caused by a new virus derived from one of approximately 25 viral families which have already demonstrated the ability to infect humans.

“The next pandemic pathogen may not be a coronavirus at all. Experts are looking into a range of bird flu strains due to increased transmission to and among mammals, as well as several recent human cases in various parts of the world,” Dr. Facchini said.

Millions of people have been vaccinated since the emergence of COVID-19, greatly reducing the severity of symptoms and improving survivability. However, immunization against this particular coronavirus does not guarantee protection against new ones.

“Coronaviruses have caused some of the most deadly outbreaks in recent decades,” said Dr. Facchini.

These viruses — commonly transmitted from animal hosts to humans and causing fatal respiratory infections — have been observed at least three times this century.

While populations may not be protected against the next “Disease X,” governments and stakeholders can leverage the potential of mRNA vaccine technology to expedite the development of new vaccines if and when needed.

The WHO has already initiated measures in preparation for future outbreaks, Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus revealed at this year’s WEF.




Experts suggest regular exercise, maintaining a healthy weight and refraining from smoking as helpful to reducing susceptibility to diseases. (AFP/File)

Proactive steps include the establishment of a pandemic fund and creation of a “technology transfer hub” in South Africa, in part to address vaccine inequity between high and low income countries.

Moreover, Ghebreyesus called on countries to sign the WHO’s pandemic treaty, so the world can better prepare for inevitable future outbreaks.

“The pandemic agreement can bring all the experience, all the challenges that we have faced, and all the solutions into one,” he said.

Regarding the ability to address potential outbreaks effectively, Dr. Facchini stressed the importance of early detection, surveillance and monitoring of possible diseases in both animal and human populations.

“Investing in research and development of new vaccines, global cooperation, public awareness, and education can all help to halt the next pandemic,” he said.




Global health experts are calling on governments to prepare for the next pandemic — ominously dubbed “Disease X.” (AFP/ File)

And, while individuals cannot control every aspect of their health, Dr. Facchini said basic steps can be taken to maximize personal well-being.

These include engaging in regular exercise, maintaining a healthy weight and refraining from smoking and other vices which heighten susceptibility to diseases.

“One of the lessons we learnt from the pandemic was that people in less favorable conditions fared worse,” said Dr. Facchini. “Those in worse health bore the burden of hospitalizations.”


Syria extends deadline for probe into killings of Alawites

Updated 51 min 55 sec ago
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Syria extends deadline for probe into killings of Alawites

  • President Ahmed Al-Sharaa grants fact-finding committee three month extension to identify perpetrators
  • Human rights groups say more than 1,000 civilians — mostly Alawites were killed in violence last month

BEIRUT: Syria’s presidency announced on Friday that it would extend a probe into the killings of Alawite civilians in coastal areas that left hundreds dead after clashes between government forces and armed groups loyal to former President Bashar Assad spiraled into sectarian revenge attacks.
The violence erupted on March 6 after Assad loyalists ambushed patrols of the new government, prompting Islamist-led groups to launch coordinated assaults on Latakia, Baniyas, and other coastal areas.
According to human rights groups, more than 1,000 civilians — mostly Alawites, an Islamic minority to which Assad belongs — were killed in retaliatory attacks, including home raids, executions, and arson, displacing thousands.
The sectarian violence was possibly among the bloodiest 72 hours in Syria’s modern history, including the 14 years of civil war from which the country is now emerging. The violence brought fear of a renewed civil war and threatened to open an endless cycle of vengeance, driving thousands of Alawites to flee their homes, with an estimated 30,000 seeking refuge in northern Lebanon.
On March 9, President Ahmed Al-Sharaa, the former leader of an Islamist insurgent group, formed a fact-finding committee and gave it 30 days to report its findings and identify perpetrators. In a decree published late Thursday, Sharaa said the committee had requested more time and was granted a three-month non-renewable extension.
The committee’s spokesperson, Yasser Farhan, said in a statement on Friday that the committee has recorded 41 sites where killings took place, each forming the basis for a separate case and requiring more time to gather evidence. He said some areas remained inaccessible due to time constraints, but that residents had cooperated, despite threats from pro-Assad remnants.
In a report published on April 3, Amnesty International said its probe into the killings concluded that at least 32 of more than 100 people killed in the town of Baniyas were deliberately targeted on sectarian grounds — a potential war crime.
The rights organization welcomed the committee’s formation but stressed it must be independent, properly resourced, and granted full access to burial sites and witnesses to conduct a credible investigation. It also said the committee should be granted “adequate time to complete the investigation.”
Witnesses to the killings identified the attackers as hard-line Sunni Islamists, including Syria-based jihadi foreign fighters and members of former rebel factions that took part in the offensive that overthrew Assad. However, many were also local Sunnis, seeking revenge for past atrocities blamed on Alawites loyal to Assad.
While some Sunnis hold the Alawite community responsible for Assad’s brutal crackdowns, Alawites themselves say they also suffered under his rule.


Erdogan accuses Israel of seeking to ‘dynamite’ Syria ‘revolution’

Updated 11 April 2025
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Erdogan accuses Israel of seeking to ‘dynamite’ Syria ‘revolution’

  • Turkish president says Israel is turning minorities in Syria against the government

ANTALYA: Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on Friday accused Israel of sowing divisions in Syria in a bid to “dynamite” the “revolution” that toppled strongman Bashar Assad.
Turkiye is a key backer of Syria’s new leader Ahmed Al-Sharaa whose Islamist group Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham (HTS) led the rebel coalition which ousted Assad in December.
“Israel is trying to dynamite the December 8 revolution by stirring up ethnic and religious affiliations and turning minorities in Syria against the government,” Erdogan told a diplomacy forum in the southern Mediterranean resort of Antalya.
Erdogan’s comments come as officials from Turkiye and Israel began talks this week aimed at easing tensions over Syria.
Israel has launched air strikes and ground incursions to keep Syrian forces away from its border.
“Israel is turning into a problematic country that directly threatens the stability of the region, especially with its attacks on Lebanon and Syria,” Erdogan said.
He also said Israeli strikes were denting efforts to combat the Daesh jihadist group.


Paramilitary attack on Sudan famine-hit camp kills 25: activists

Updated 11 April 2025
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Paramilitary attack on Sudan famine-hit camp kills 25: activists

  • Shelling and intense gunfire targeted the Zamzam displacement camp near El-Fasher on Friday

PORT SUDAN: Sudan’s paramilitary Rapid Support Forces on Friday killed 25 civilians including women and children, in an attack on a famine-stricken camp in Sudan’s North Darfur state, activists said.
The attack, which involved shelling and intense gunfire, “targeted Zamzam displacement camp from both the southern and eastern directions,” said the local resistance committee, a volunteer aid group in North Darfur’s besieged capital of El-Fasher.
Zamzam and other densely populated camps for the displaced around El-Fasher have suffered heavily during nearly two years of fighting between Sudan’s army and the RSF.
The paramilitaries have stepped up its efforts to complete their conquest of Darfur, Sudan’s vast western region, since losing control of the capital Khartoum last month.
Eyewitnesses described seeing RSF combat vehicles infiltrating the camp under cover of heavy gunfire.
The local resistance committee said the attack was met with counter-fire but the full extent of damage was unclear due to disrupted communications and Internet shutdowns.
Zamzam was the first part of Sudan where a UN-backed assessment declared famine last year.
The conflict in Sudan has killed tens of thousands of people and uprooted more than 12 million since a struggle for power between rival generals erupted into full-blown war on April 15, 2023.


More Sudanese refugees fleeing as far as Europe, UN refugee agency says

Updated 11 April 2025
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More Sudanese refugees fleeing as far as Europe, UN refugee agency says

  • Olga Sarrado, UN refugee agency spokesperson, told a press briefing in Geneva that some 484 Sudanese had arrived in Europe in January and February, up 38 percent from the same period last year

GENEVA: Over a thousand Sudanese refugees have reached or attempted to reach Europe in early 2025, the United Nations’ refugee agency said on Friday, citing growing desperation in part due to reduced aid in the region.
Some 12 million people have been displaced by the two-year conflict between the Sudanese army and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces that has fueled what UN officials call the world’s most devastating aid crisis.
While some have recently returned home to Khartoum, millions of others in neighboring countries like Egypt and Chad face tough choices as services for refugees are being cut, including by the United States as part of an aid review.
Olga Sarrado, UN refugee agency spokesperson, told a press briefing in Geneva that some 484 Sudanese had arrived in Europe in January and February, up 38 percent from the same period last year.
Around 937 others were rescued or intercepted at sea and returned to Libya — more than double last year’s figures for the same period, she added.
“As humanitarian aid crumbles and if the war does not abate, many more will have little choice than to join them,” she said.
Migrant deaths hit a record last year, the UN migration agency said, with many perishing on the Mediterranean crossing which is one of the world’s most dangerous.


UN: 36 Israeli strikes in Gaza killed ‘only women and children’

Updated 11 April 2025
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UN: 36 Israeli strikes in Gaza killed ‘only women and children’

  • Family of 10 killed in Israeli airstrike on Friday
  • UN rights office spokesperson warns the military strikes across Gaza were ‘leaving nowhere safe’

GAZA: Dozens of Israeli air strikes on Gaza have killed “only women and children” after a ceasefire collapsed, the UN said, as an Israeli attack in the territory’s south on Friday left a family of 10 dead.
A UN rights office report also warned that expanding Israeli evacuation orders were resulting in the “forcible transfer” of people into ever-shrinking areas, raising “real concern as to the future viability of Palestinians as a group in Gaza.”
Israel’s military said it was looking into the attack that killed members of the same family in Khan Yunis, southern Gaza, adding separately that it had struck approximately 40 “terror targets” across the territory over the past day.
Israel resumed its Gaza strikes on March 18, ending a two-month ceasefire with Hamas.
Since then, more than 1,500 people have been killed, according to the health ministry in the Hamas-run territory to which Israel cut off aid more than a month ago.
“Ten people, including seven children, were brought to the hospital as martyrs following an Israeli air strike that targeted the Farra family home in central Khan Yunis,” civil defense spokesperson Mahmud Bassal told AFP.
AFP footage of the aftermath showed several bodies wrapped in white shrouds and blankets, and footage of the house showed mangled concrete slabs and twisted metal.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan lashed denounced Israel, saying: “If this is not barbarism, I ask you, what is it?“
Early Friday, Israel’s military issued an evacuation warning to residents of several areas east of Gaza City ahead of a new offensive there.
The UN decried the impact of the ongoing Israeli strikes, finding that “a large percentage of fatalities are children and women.”
“Between 18 March and 9 April 2025, there were some 224 incidents of Israeli strikes on residential buildings and tents for internally displaced people,” the UN human rights office said in Geneva.
“In some 36 strikes about which the UN Human Rights Office corroborated information, the fatalities recorded so far were only women and children.”
Israel’s military has repeatedly said Palestinian militants often hide among civilians, a charge Hamas denies.
UN rights office spokeswoman Ravina Shamdasani also raised concerns over “the denial of access to basic necessities within Gaza and the repeated suggestion that Gazans should leave the territory entirely.”
Saudi Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan, after meeting regional counterparts in Turkiye, urged “maximum pressure to ensure” aid is delivered into Gaza.
The war broke out after Hamas’s October 7, 2023 attack on Israel resulted in the deaths of 1,218 people, mostly civilians, according to an AFP tally based on Israeli official figures.
Militants also took 251 hostages, 58 of whom are still held in Gaza, including 34 the Israeli military says are dead.
Gaza’s health ministry said Friday at least 1,542 Palestinians have been killed since March 18, taking the overall death toll since the war began to 50,912.


A truce brokered by the United States, Egypt and Qatar that took effect on January 19 and lasted until March 17 saw the return of 33 Israeli hostages, eight of them in coffins, in exchange for around 1,800 Palestinian prisoners.
In a Passover holiday message, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu reiterated his pledge to bring the remaining captives home.
He spoke after US President Donald Trump suggested progress in hostage release talks, telling a cabinet meeting on Thursday that “we’re getting close to getting them back.”
Trump’s envoy Steve Witkoff was also quoted in an Israeli media report as saying “a very serious deal is taking shape, it’s a matter of days.”
Israeli media reported Friday that Egypt and Israel had exchanged draft documents on a ceasefire-hostage release deal.
The Times of Israel said Egypt’s proposal would mean eight living hostages and eight bodies released in exchange for a truce of between 40 and 70 days and a large number of Palestinian prisoner releases.
A senior Hamas leader who declined to be identified told journalists the group had “not received any new ceasefire offer.”
“The movement is open to any new proposal that would achieve a ceasefire, withdraw the occupation’s forces, and end the suffering of the Palestinian people.”
In his message for Passover — a holiday celebrating the biblical liberation of the Israelites from slavery in Egypt — Netanyahu said that “together we will return our hostages.”
He has insisted that increased military pressure is the only way to get the captives home.