GAZA STRIP: Over the last five months, Israel has killed thousands of Hamas fighters, destroyed dozens of their tunnels and wreaked unprecedented destruction on the Gaza Strip.
But it still faces a dilemma that was clear from the start of the war and will ultimately determine its outcome: It can either try to annihilate Hamas, which would mean almost certain death for the estimated 100 hostages still held in Gaza, or it can cut a deal that would allow the militants to claim a historic victory.
Either outcome would be excruciating for Israelis. Either would likely seal an ignominious end for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s long political career. And either might be seen as acceptable by Hamas, which valorizes martyrdom.
Netanyahu, at least in public, denies there is any such dilemma. He has vowed to destroy Hamas and recover all the hostages, either through rescue missions or ceasefire agreements, saying victory could come “in a matter of weeks.”
As long as the war rages, he can avoid early elections that polls strongly suggest would remove him from power. But it seems inevitable that at some point a choice will have to be made between the hostages and military victory.
Hamas, meanwhile, appears to be in no hurry to reach a temporary ceasefire ahead of the Muslim holy month of Ramadan, which begins next week, or to delay an expected Israeli operation in Rafah, the southern city where half of Gaza’s population has sought refuge.
Hamas leader Yehya Sinwar, the alleged mastermind of the Oct. 7 attack against Israel, has reason to believe that as long as he holds the hostages, he can eventually end the war on his terms.
SINWAR’S BLOODY GAMBLE
In over two decades spent inside Israeli prisons, Sinwar reportedly learned fluent Hebrew and studied Israeli society, and he identified a chink in the armor of his militarily superior adversary.
He learned that Israel cannot tolerate its people, especially soldiers, being held captive, and will go to extraordinary lengths to bring them home. Sinwar himself was among over 1,000 Palestinian prisoners released in exchange for a single captive soldier in 2011.
For Sinwar, the mass killings on Oct. 7 might have been a horrific sideshow to the main operation, which was to drag large numbers of hostages into a vast labyrinth of tunnels beneath Gaza, where Israel would be unable to rescue them, and where they could serve as human shields for Hamas leaders.
Once that was accomplished, he had a powerful bargaining chip that could be traded for large numbers of Palestinian prisoners, including top leaders serving life sentences, and an end to the Israeli onslaught that Hamas had anticipated.
No amount of 2,000-pound bombs could overcome the strategy’s brutal logic.
Israeli officials say the tunnels stretch for hundreds of kilometers (miles) and some are several stories underground, guarded by blast doors and booby traps. Even if Israel locates Hamas leaders, any operation would mean almost certain death for the hostages that likely surround them.
“The objectives are quite contradictory,” said Amos Harel, a longtime military correspondent for Israel’s Haaretz newspaper. “Of course, you can say it will take a year to defeat Hamas, and we’re moving ahead on that, but the problem is that nobody can ensure that the hostages will remain alive.”
He added that even if Israel somehow kills Sinwar and other top leaders, others would move up the ranks and replace them, as has happened in the past.
“Israel will have a really hard time winning this,” Harel said.
Israel has successfully rescued three hostages since the start of the war, all of whom were aboveground. Israeli troops killed three hostages by mistake, and Hamas says several others were killed in airstrikes or failed rescue operations. More than 100 hostages were released in a ceasefire deal in exchange for Palestinians imprisoned by Israel.
Netanyahu says military pressure will eventually bring about the release of the roughly 100 hostages, and the remains of 30 others, still held by Hamas.
But in candid remarks in January, Gadi Eisenkot, Israel’s former top general and a member of Netanyahu’s War Cabinet, said anyone suggesting the remaining hostages could be freed without a ceasefire deal was spreading “illusions.”
It’s hard to imagine Hamas releasing its most valuable human shields for a temporary ceasefire, only to see Israel resume its attempt to annihilate the group, and Hamas has rejected the idea of its leaders surrendering and going into exile.
For Sinwar, it’s better to stay underground with the hostages and see if his bet pays off.
HOW DOES THIS END?
Netanyahu’s government is under mounting pressure from families of the hostages, who fear time is running out, and the wider public, which views the return of captives as a sacred obligation.
President Joe Biden, Israel’s most important ally, is at risk of losing re-election in November, in part because of Democratic divisions over the war. The humanitarian catastrophe in Gaza has sparked worldwide outrage. The war threatens to ignite other fronts across the Middle East.
There’s a Hamas proposal on the table in which the hostages come back alive.
It calls for the phased release of all of the captives in return for Israel’s gradual withdrawal from Gaza, a long-term ceasefire and reconstruction. Israel would also release hundreds of prisoners, including top Palestinian political leaders and militants convicted of killing civilians.
Hamas would almost certainly remain in control of Gaza and might even hold victory parades. With time, it could recruit new fighters, rebuild tunnels and replenish its arsenals.
It would be an extremely costly victory, with over 30,000 Palestinians killed and the total destruction of much of Gaza. Palestinians would have different opinions on whether it was all worth it.
A rare wartime poll last year found rising support for Hamas, with over 40 percent of Palestinians in the occupied West Bank and Gaza backing the group.
That support would only grow if Hamas succeeds in lifting the longstanding blockade on Gaza, said Tahani Mustafa, senior Palestine analyst at the Crisis Group, an international think tank.
“If this is able to bring some serious concessions that can make life just marginally better, then I think not only will this bolster support for Hamas, but it could also bolster support for armed resistance more broadly.”
Netanyahu has rejected Hamas’ proposal as “delusional,” but there is no sign the militant group is backing away from its core demands.
Israel can keep fighting – for weeks, months or years. The army can kill more fighters and demolish more tunnels, while carefully avoiding areas where it thinks the hostages are held.
But at some point, Netanyahu or his successor will likely have to make one of the most agonizing decisions in the country’s history, or it will be made for them.
The brutal logic of Hamas’ hostage strategy could deny Israel victory in Gaza
https://arab.news/vp24c
The brutal logic of Hamas’ hostage strategy could deny Israel victory in Gaza
- Netanyahu has vowed to destroy Hamas and recover all the hostages, either through rescue missions or ceasefire agreements
- Hamas, meanwhile, appears to be in no hurry to reach a temporary ceasefire ahead of the Muslim holy month of Ramadan
Netanyahu sets out red lines for lasting end to war in Gaza
- Says Hamas fighters must first give up their weapons and their hold on the Palestinian territory
- Failure to reach a deal on Israel’s terms would lead to further conflict, he said
JERUSALEM: Israel is ready to negotiate a lasting deal with Hamas to end the Gaza war when a temporary halt to hostilities begins, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Thursday.
But Netanyahu said the militants must first give up their weapons and their hold on the Palestinian territory, warning that failure to reach a deal on Israel’s terms would lead to further conflict.
His comments as Gaza’s civil defense agency said eight children — killed as they queued for nutritional supplements outside a health clinic — were among 66 people who died in Israeli strikes across the territory Thursday.
The UN children’s agency said one victim was a one-year-old boy who according to his mother had uttered his first words only hours earlier.
Efforts to secure a 60-day halt in the 21-month war have dominated Netanyahu’s talks with US President Donald Trump in Washington.
Indirect negotiations have been taking place between the two sides in Qatar, and the militants have agreed to free 10 of the 20 hostages still alive in captivity since the October 7, 2023 attack which sparked the war.
Sticking points include Hamas’s demand for the free flow of aid into Gaza and Israel’s military withdrawal from the territory. It also wants “real guarantees” on a lasting peace, the group said.
Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Saar said “progress has been made” but admitted in an interview with Austrian newspaper Die Presse that ironing out “all complex issues” would likely take “a few more days.”
There was no agreement on the number of Palestinian prisoners to be released in exchange for hostages, he told the newspaper.
He said that “initially, eight hostages are to be released, followed by two more on the 50th day” of the 60-day ceasefire. “Additionally, 18 bodies of hostages are to be handed over,” he was quoted as saying.
Saar said a lasting ceasefire would be discussed but added: “There are still major differences, especially regarding the question of how Hamas will be prevented from controlling Gaza after the war.”
He said Israel was ready to grant Hamas leaders safe passage into exile.
‘Fundamental conditions’
Netanyahu, who is under domestic pressure to end the war as military casualties mount, said disarming and neutralizing Hamas were “fundamental conditions” for Israel.
“If this can be achieved through negotiations, great,” he said. “If it cannot be achieved through negotiations within 60 days, we will have to achieve it through other means, by using... the force of our heroic army.”
Senior Hamas official Bassem Naim told AFP that it would not accept “the perpetuation of the occupation of our land” or Palestinians being herded into “isolated enclaves” in the densely populated territory.
The group was particularly opposed to Israeli control over Rafah, on the border with Egypt, and the so-called Morag Corridor between the southern city and Khan Yunis, he added.
Israel announced this year that the army was seizing large areas of Gaza to be incorporated into buffer zones cleared of their inhabitants.
Naim said the group also wanted to end the delivery of aid by a US and Israel-backed group, a system which has seen scores of people killed while seeking food rations.
The Palestinian territory’s civil defense agency said eight children were among 17 people killed in an Israeli strike outside a medical clinic in Deir el-Balah in central Gaza.
“The ground shook beneath our feet and everything around us turned into blood and deafening screams,” said Yousef Al-Aydi, who was in the queue for nutritional supplements when he heard a drone approaching then a blast.
Rabih Torbay, the head of US medical charity Project Hope which runs the facility, called it “a blatant violation of humanitarian law.”
Israel’s military said it had struck a Hamas militant in the city who had infiltrated Israel during the 2023 attack and that it “regrets any harm to uninvolved individuals.”
Overall, the health ministry in Hamas-run Gaza said at least 57,762 Palestinians, most of them civilians, have been killed since the start of the conflict.
Hamas’s October 2023 attack led to the deaths of 1,219 people, most of them civilians, according to an AFP tally based on Israeli figures.
A total of 251 hostages were seized in the attack. Forty-nine are still held in Gaza, including 27 the Israeli military says are dead.
British MPs demand full details of US consulting firm’s role in Gaza
- Boston Consulting Group created models to estimate the costs of relocating Palestinians from the territory, and helped set up controversial Israeli-led aid operation
- Head of the UK’s Business and Trade Committee writes to company’s CEO demanding information about all work related to the conflict in Gaza
LONDON: A parliamentary committee in the UK has demanded that a major US consulting firm provides full details of its activities related to Gaza, after it emerged the company helped set up a controversial Israeli-led aid operation.
Boston Consulting Group was also asked to provide details of the work it carried out on models to estimate the costs of a widely-condemned Israeli and US plan to relocate Palestinians from Gaza to other countries.
Liam Byrne, chairperson of the Business and Trade Committee, sent a letter requesting the information to BCG’s CEO, Christoph Schweizer, as part of the “scrutiny of the UK’s commercial, political and humanitarian links to the conflict.”
The Financial Times reported on July 4 that the consultancy had built a financial model for the reconstruction of Gaza, which included an estimate of the likely cost of the voluntary relocation of hundreds of thousands of Palestinians.
It also said BCG had helped establish the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation, a US and Israeli-backed aid-distribution program in the territory. Hundreds of Palestinians have been killed trying to access humanitarian supplies at the foundation’s distribution sites since they started operating in May.
In a statement published on Wednesday, Schweizer said the lead partner involved in the work carried out by BCG had been “explicitly told not to do any work related to Gaza reconstruction.”
He added: “The project fell well outside our standards for work that we accept. But the ban was ignored, and the work was secretively conducted anyway.”
He said an internal investigation began in May, two of the partners involved were subsequently “exited” from the company and BCG did not receive any fees for the work.
Byrne, an MP from the UK’s ruling Labour Party, sent a number of questions for BCG to answer about its work on Gaza “in light of the high level of public and parliamentary concern.”
He wrote: “We are aware of recent reports regarding BCG’s engagement with the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation and associated modeling of the costs of relocating Palestinians from Gaza.”
He asked for a “detailed timeline” of BCG’s involvement with the foundation, the scope of its engagement, and the identities of the clients and partners involved. He requested details of other organizations, companies or individuals engaged by BCG in relation to the aid-distribution program, and more details about the type of the “unauthorized” work the company said was carried out.
Byrne also asked for more information about the work related to the development of models for the relocation of Palestinians from Gaza, including the identities of those who commissioned the work and whether any UK-based organizations were involved.
He gave BCG until July 22 to respond, “given the seriousness of these issues and the high level of public interest.”
Nearly 58,000 Palestinians have been killed since October 2023 during Israel’s war on Gaza, including more than 500 in recent weeks as they attempted to obtain food aid from Gaza Humanitarian Foundation distribution sites. The organization, which was set up to replace UN aid-distribution mechanisms, has been condemned by humanitarian chiefs for politicizing aid.
US and Israeli-backed proposals to relocate the Palestinian population of Gaza to other countries, which emerged at the start of the year, were widely condemned by governments in the region and beyond.
RSF attack on shelter in Sudan’s El-Fasher leaves 8 dead, says doctor
- Since losing control of the capital Khartoum to the army in March, the RSF has stepped up attacks on El-Fasher and its surrounding displacement camps
PORT SUDAN: Sudan’s paramilitary Rapid Support Forces killed eight civilians in an attack on a bunker sheltering dozens in the besieged western city of El-Fasher, a doctor said Thursday.
Nearly all of Darfur, the vast western region of Sudan, remains under RSF control, with communications and media access cut off since the RSF’s war with the army began in April 2023.
The conflict has killed tens of thousands, triggered the world’s largest hunger and displacement crisis, and devastated the northeast African country.
“The RSF bombed a shelter where citizens had taken refuge using a drone, late on Tuesday night,” the doctor told AFP from El-Fasher Teaching Hospital, one of the city’s last functioning health facilities.
They spoke on condition of anonymity for their safety, as health workers have been repeatedly targeted, using a satellite Internet connection to circumvent the communications blackout.
North Darfur state’s capital, El-Fasher, is the only major city in Sudan’s vast Darfur region still outside RSF control, despite a siege that began in May last year.
Since losing control of the capital Khartoum to the army in March, the RSF has stepped up attacks on El-Fasher and its surrounding displacement camps — where famine has already been declared — in an attempt to consolidate its hold on Darfur.
The United Nations has repeatedly warned of the plight of the city’s trapped civilians, who shelter from shelling in makeshift bunkers dug in courtyards and in front of houses.
The bunker bombed on Tuesday had been “sheltering dozens of people,” an eyewitness told AFP.
The city’s resistance committee, one of hundreds of volunteer groups coordinating frontline aid across the country, said El-Fasher was rocked by RSF artillery throughout Wednesday.
El-Fasher’s estimated one million people survive with barely any access to food, water or health care, with critical infrastructure decimated by a lack of maintenance and fuel shortages.
The United Nations said this week that nearly 40 percent of children under five in El-Fasher were suffering from acute malnutrition, including 11 percent with severe acute malnutrition.
Aid sources say an official famine declaration is impossible given the lack of access to data, but mass starvation has all but gripped the city.
Since the war began, the UN estimates 780,000 people have been displaced from El-Fasher and its surrounding displacement camps, including half a million in April and May following a series of brutal RSF attacks.
Of the 10 million people currently internally displaced in Sudan — the world’s largest displacement crisis — nearly 20 percent are in North Darfur.
Rights defenders denounce US sanctions on UN expert
- Francesca Albanese accused companies of supporting settlements, Israeli war actions
GENEVA: Human rights defenders rallied on Thursday to support the top UN expert on Palestinian rights, after the US imposed sanctions on her over what it said was unfair criticism of Israel.
Italian lawyer Francesca Albanese serves as special rapporteur on human rights in the occupied Palestinian territories, one of dozens of experts appointed by the 47-member UN Human Rights Council to report on specific global issues.
She has long criticized Israeli treatment of the Palestinians, and this month published a report accusing over 60 companies, including some US firms, of supporting Israeli settlements in the West Bank and military actions in Gaza.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio announced on Wednesday Albanese would be added to the US sanctions list for work that had prompted what he described as illegitimate prosecutions of Israelis at the International Criminal Court.
UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Turk urged Washington to reverse course.
“Even in the face of fierce disagreement, UN Member States should engage substantively and constructively, rather than resort to punitive measures,” he said.
Juerg Lauber, the Swiss permanent representative to the UN who now holds the rotating presidency of the Human Rights Council, said he regretted the sanctions, and called on states to “refrain from any acts of intimidation or reprisal” against the body’s experts.
Mariana Katzarova, who serves as the special rapporteur for human rights in Russia, said her concern was that other countries would follow the US lead.
“This is totally unacceptable and opens the gates for any other government to do the same,” she said. “It is an attack on UN system as a whole. Member states must stand up and denounce this.”
Russia has rejected Katzarova’s mandate and refused to let her enter the country, but it has so far stopped short of publicly adding her to a sanctions list.
Washington has already imposed sanctions against officials at the International Criminal Court, which has issued arrest warrants against Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his former defense minister for suspected war crimes in Gaza. Another court, the International Court of Justice, is hearing a case brought by South Africa that accuses Israel of genocide.
Israel denies that its forces have carried out war crimes or genocide against Palestinians in the war in Gaza, which was precipitated by an attack by Hamas-led fighters in October 2023.
“The United States is working to dismantle the norms and institutions on which survivors of grave abuses rely,” said Liz Evenson, international justice director at Human Rights Watch.
The group’s former head, Kenneth Roth, called the US sanctions an attempt “to deter prosecution of Israeli war crimes and genocide in Gaza.”
The US, once one of the most active members of the Human Rights Council, has disengaged from it under President Donald Trump, alleging an anti-Israel bias.
Sara Netanyahu: the ever-present wife of Israel’s prime minister
- Sara Netanyahu has long made headlines, notably for her alleged involvement in the political decisions of her husband
- She has been questioned in connection with her husband’s ongoing graft trial and was the subject of corruption, fraud and breach of trust investigations
JERUSALEM: Whether dining opposite US President Donald Trump or accompanying her husband on an official Pentagon visit, Sara Netanyahu’s front-row role in Washington this week has sparked fresh questions over her place in Israeli politics.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s third wife and the mother of two of his children, Sara Netanyahu has long made headlines, notably for her alleged involvement in the political decisions of her husband.
“My wife and I...” is a phrase often used by the Israeli premier in his official statements, helping to cement Sara’s position at the forefront of public life.
This week, as the prime minister visited Washington for a series of high-level meetings in which he discussed a potential Gaza ceasefire deal with the US president, his wife was noticeably present.
On Tuesday, she was photographed sitting opposite Trump at an official dinner following a meeting between the two leaders.
Two days later, she appeared next to her husband, as well as US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and his wife, Jennifer Rauchet, as they arrived for meetings at the Pentagon.
But speculation had swirled even before the Netanyahus’ departure for Washington.
On the eve of the trip, the prime minister’s office announced the resignation of his spokesman Omer Dostri.
A few hours later, following media reports claiming that his wife had been involved in the decision, another statement was issued denying she had any role.
Sara Netanyahu has been the subject of several investigations, including for corruption, fraud and breach of trust, and has also been questioned in connection with her husband’s ongoing graft trial.
Married to Benjamin Netanyahu since 1991, the 66-year-old is the target of frequent media attacks which are regularly denounced by her husband.
She has been caricatured in satirical programs for her fashion choices or her profession as a child psychologist, which she has often appeared to boast about.
But above all, she has been targeted for her alleged interference in state affairs.
‘Real prime minister’
In a video released in December 2024, Netanyahu denied that his wife was involved in his cabinet appointments or that she was privy to state secrets.
It followed an investigation into Sara Netanyahu aired by Israel’s Channnel 12 which the prime minister slammed as a “witch hunt.”
In 2021, a former senior official said he had seen a contract signed by the Netanyahus stipulating that Sara had a say in the appointment of Israeli security chiefs.
To that claim, the prime minister’s office responded with a brief statement denouncing “a complete lie.” The official lost a libel suit brought against him by the Netanyahus’ lawyer.
And when the prime minister appointed David Zini as the new head of Israel’s Shin Bet security service in May, Israeli journalists once again pointed to the possible influence of Sara Netanyahu, who is thought to be close to Zini’s entourage.
Almost two years since the start of Israel’s war against Hamas in Gaza, Sara Netanyahu seems to have established herself as more indispensable than ever, with some even attributing her with increasing influence on strategic issues.
In May, when Sara Netanyahu corrected the number of living Gaza hostages given by her husband during a recorded meeting with the captives’ families, speculation swirled that she had access to classified information.
Journalist and Netanyahu biographer Ben Caspit went as far as to describe Sara Netanyahu as the “real prime minister.”
“It has become public knowledge. It is an integral part of our lives... we are normalizing the fact that someone has dismantled the leadership of the state in favor of chaotic, family-based management,” Caspit said in an opinion piece published on the website of the Maariv newspaper.
In an interview with US news outlet Fox News on Wednesday, Netanyahu described his wife as a “wonderful partner” and praised her help over the years.
