GAZA STRIP: Over the last five months, Israel has killed thousands of Hamas fighters, destroyed dozens of their tunnels and wreaked unprecedented destruction on the Gaza Strip.
But it still faces a dilemma that was clear from the start of the war and will ultimately determine its outcome: It can either try to annihilate Hamas, which would mean almost certain death for the estimated 100 hostages still held in Gaza, or it can cut a deal that would allow the militants to claim a historic victory.
Either outcome would be excruciating for Israelis. Either would likely seal an ignominious end for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s long political career. And either might be seen as acceptable by Hamas, which valorizes martyrdom.
Netanyahu, at least in public, denies there is any such dilemma. He has vowed to destroy Hamas and recover all the hostages, either through rescue missions or ceasefire agreements, saying victory could come “in a matter of weeks.”
As long as the war rages, he can avoid early elections that polls strongly suggest would remove him from power. But it seems inevitable that at some point a choice will have to be made between the hostages and military victory.
Hamas, meanwhile, appears to be in no hurry to reach a temporary ceasefire ahead of the Muslim holy month of Ramadan, which begins next week, or to delay an expected Israeli operation in Rafah, the southern city where half of Gaza’s population has sought refuge.
Hamas leader Yehya Sinwar, the alleged mastermind of the Oct. 7 attack against Israel, has reason to believe that as long as he holds the hostages, he can eventually end the war on his terms.
SINWAR’S BLOODY GAMBLE
In over two decades spent inside Israeli prisons, Sinwar reportedly learned fluent Hebrew and studied Israeli society, and he identified a chink in the armor of his militarily superior adversary.
He learned that Israel cannot tolerate its people, especially soldiers, being held captive, and will go to extraordinary lengths to bring them home. Sinwar himself was among over 1,000 Palestinian prisoners released in exchange for a single captive soldier in 2011.
For Sinwar, the mass killings on Oct. 7 might have been a horrific sideshow to the main operation, which was to drag large numbers of hostages into a vast labyrinth of tunnels beneath Gaza, where Israel would be unable to rescue them, and where they could serve as human shields for Hamas leaders.
Once that was accomplished, he had a powerful bargaining chip that could be traded for large numbers of Palestinian prisoners, including top leaders serving life sentences, and an end to the Israeli onslaught that Hamas had anticipated.
No amount of 2,000-pound bombs could overcome the strategy’s brutal logic.
Israeli officials say the tunnels stretch for hundreds of kilometers (miles) and some are several stories underground, guarded by blast doors and booby traps. Even if Israel locates Hamas leaders, any operation would mean almost certain death for the hostages that likely surround them.
“The objectives are quite contradictory,” said Amos Harel, a longtime military correspondent for Israel’s Haaretz newspaper. “Of course, you can say it will take a year to defeat Hamas, and we’re moving ahead on that, but the problem is that nobody can ensure that the hostages will remain alive.”
He added that even if Israel somehow kills Sinwar and other top leaders, others would move up the ranks and replace them, as has happened in the past.
“Israel will have a really hard time winning this,” Harel said.
Israel has successfully rescued three hostages since the start of the war, all of whom were aboveground. Israeli troops killed three hostages by mistake, and Hamas says several others were killed in airstrikes or failed rescue operations. More than 100 hostages were released in a ceasefire deal in exchange for Palestinians imprisoned by Israel.
Netanyahu says military pressure will eventually bring about the release of the roughly 100 hostages, and the remains of 30 others, still held by Hamas.
But in candid remarks in January, Gadi Eisenkot, Israel’s former top general and a member of Netanyahu’s War Cabinet, said anyone suggesting the remaining hostages could be freed without a ceasefire deal was spreading “illusions.”
It’s hard to imagine Hamas releasing its most valuable human shields for a temporary ceasefire, only to see Israel resume its attempt to annihilate the group, and Hamas has rejected the idea of its leaders surrendering and going into exile.
For Sinwar, it’s better to stay underground with the hostages and see if his bet pays off.
HOW DOES THIS END?
Netanyahu’s government is under mounting pressure from families of the hostages, who fear time is running out, and the wider public, which views the return of captives as a sacred obligation.
President Joe Biden, Israel’s most important ally, is at risk of losing re-election in November, in part because of Democratic divisions over the war. The humanitarian catastrophe in Gaza has sparked worldwide outrage. The war threatens to ignite other fronts across the Middle East.
There’s a Hamas proposal on the table in which the hostages come back alive.
It calls for the phased release of all of the captives in return for Israel’s gradual withdrawal from Gaza, a long-term ceasefire and reconstruction. Israel would also release hundreds of prisoners, including top Palestinian political leaders and militants convicted of killing civilians.
Hamas would almost certainly remain in control of Gaza and might even hold victory parades. With time, it could recruit new fighters, rebuild tunnels and replenish its arsenals.
It would be an extremely costly victory, with over 30,000 Palestinians killed and the total destruction of much of Gaza. Palestinians would have different opinions on whether it was all worth it.
A rare wartime poll last year found rising support for Hamas, with over 40 percent of Palestinians in the occupied West Bank and Gaza backing the group.
That support would only grow if Hamas succeeds in lifting the longstanding blockade on Gaza, said Tahani Mustafa, senior Palestine analyst at the Crisis Group, an international think tank.
“If this is able to bring some serious concessions that can make life just marginally better, then I think not only will this bolster support for Hamas, but it could also bolster support for armed resistance more broadly.”
Netanyahu has rejected Hamas’ proposal as “delusional,” but there is no sign the militant group is backing away from its core demands.
Israel can keep fighting – for weeks, months or years. The army can kill more fighters and demolish more tunnels, while carefully avoiding areas where it thinks the hostages are held.
But at some point, Netanyahu or his successor will likely have to make one of the most agonizing decisions in the country’s history, or it will be made for them.
The brutal logic of Hamas’ hostage strategy could deny Israel victory in Gaza
https://arab.news/vp24c
The brutal logic of Hamas’ hostage strategy could deny Israel victory in Gaza
- Netanyahu has vowed to destroy Hamas and recover all the hostages, either through rescue missions or ceasefire agreements
- Hamas, meanwhile, appears to be in no hurry to reach a temporary ceasefire ahead of the Muslim holy month of Ramadan
Qatari minister of state, IAEA chief discuss ‘serious threat’ of Israeli strikes on Iran’s nuclear sites
- Mohammed bin Abdulaziz Al-Khulaifi reiterates Qatar’s condemnation of attacks on Iranian territory
- He said targeting nuclear facilities threatens regional, international security
LONDON: The Qatari Minister of State for Foreign Affairs Mohammed bin Abdulaziz Al-Khulaifi on Tuesday discussed the conflict between Israel and Iran with Rafael Grossi, the director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency.
Al-Khulaifi discussed in a call the Israeli attacks on Iranian nuclear facilities that began on Friday, targeting the Natanz, Fordo, and Isfahan nuclear sites.
Al-Khulaifi stressed that targeting nuclear facilities was a serious threat to regional and international security. He reaffirmed Qatar’s commitment to dialogue to resolve conflicts and achieve peace in the region.
The officials discussed ways to improve the security of nuclear facilities and ensure they are safeguarded against threats, the Qatar News Agency reported.
Al-Khulaifi reiterated Qatar’s strong condemnation of the Israeli attacks on Iranian territory, deeming them blatant violations of Iran’s sovereignty and security, the QNA added.
The IAEA reported on Monday that the Israeli airstrike on Iran’s Natanz facility on Friday damaged the centrifuges of the underground uranium enrichment plant, raising concerns about potential radiological and chemical contamination in the area.
Regional war puts Palestinian disarmament in Lebanese camps on hold
- Dimashkieh affirmed that “the dialogue committee is fully committed to the joint statement issued by the Lebanese and Palestinian presidents”
- Palestinian sources told Arab News that significant resistance has emerged within Palestinian ranks over Abbas’s quick acceptance of disarmament deadlines
BEIRUT: A Palestinian official in Lebanon announced “the postponement of the scheduled collection of weapons from Palestinian refugee camps due to the current situation in the region.”
The announcement came just hours before the Lebanese government was set to begin disarming Palestinian refugee camps in Beirut and its suburbs this week.
Citing a Lebanese official familiar with Palestinian affairs in Lebanon, Palestinian news agency WAFA stated that “Palestine renewed its commitment to the joint statement issued on May 21 following the meeting held between Lebanese President Joseph Aoun and President Mahmoud Abbas in Beirut.”
He added that the statement emphasized “Lebanon’s sovereignty, the extension of state authority, and the exclusive right of the Lebanese state to bear arms, as well as the need to end any manifestations outside its authority.
“Palestinian security and military bodies will begin full cooperation with the Lebanese security forces as agreed upon when conditions permit and after the necessary preparations are completed,” the official said.
On the Lebanese side, the only statement issued in this regard was by Ramez Dimashkieh, head of the Lebanese-Palestinian Dialogue Committee, who said that “he received a call from Azzam Al-Ahmad, secretary-general of the Palestine Liberation Organization, during which they discussed the latest developments.”
Dimashkieh affirmed that “the dialogue committee is fully committed to the joint statement issued by the Lebanese and Palestinian presidents, which clearly emphasized respect for Lebanese sovereignty, the principle of exclusive state control over weapons, and the necessity of ending the visible presence of Palestinian arms, according to a specific timeline.”
Youssef Al-Zari’i, Fatah’s media representative in Sidon, confirmed that Palestinian factions, including Fatah and Islamic movements, all expressed willingness to hand over weapons and allow Lebanese authority throughout the country.
However, he argued that delays are “reasonable given the delicate regional situation,” with implementation tied to evolving Middle Eastern dynamics.
Palestinian sources told Arab News that significant resistance has emerged within Palestinian ranks over Abbas’s quick acceptance of disarmament deadlines. “Multiple Palestinian factions, particularly within Fatah, are uncomfortable with Abbas’s hasty agreement to weapon collection schedules,” one insider said.
Beyond regional timing issues, fundamental questions about execution mechanisms remain unresolved.
“Fatah claims it holds limited heavy weapons in Lebanese camps compared to other groups, especially Hamas,” a source said.
Since Fatah’s weapons belong to the internationally recognized Palestinian Authority and operate under Lebanese oversight, unilateral disarmament could create dangerous imbalances.
“If Fatah surrenders its arsenal while Hamas and affiliated groups retain theirs, Fatah becomes vulnerable within camp dynamics,” the source warned.
Hamas continues defending its Lebanese weapons as legitimate resistance tools while deflecting surrender demands through broader political arguments. The group links disarmament to comprehensive refugee solutions, including return rights and enhanced social protections for displaced populations in Lebanon.
Palestinian camps across Lebanon emphasize that sustainable solutions must address living standards, legal rights including property ownership, while maintaining respect for Lebanese sovereignty and law.
The Lebanese and Palestinian presidents announced in a joint statement issued following their meeting a few weeks ago “the formation of joint committees to address the issue of Palestinian weapons in refugee camps and to monitor the situation in the Palestinian camps.”
They affirmed their commitment to the principle of placing all weapons under Lebanese state control.
According to a joint Lebanese-Palestinian census conducted in 2017, the number of Palestinian refugees in Lebanon is estimated at around 200,000. Many live in harsh conditions within camps overseen by Palestinian factions and forces, which consider the possession of arms as integral to both the right of return and the broader struggle for the liberation of Palestine.
Lebanon is home to 12 official Palestinian refugee camps, along with dozens of other communities dispersed across the country.
The presence of weapons in Palestinian camps in Lebanon dates back to the 1969 Cairo Agreement between the PLO and the Lebanese government.
The agreement stipulated that Palestinians were permitted to establish military bases in southern Lebanon and conduct political activities within the camps, effectively legitimizing armed Palestinian presence on Lebanese soil and in camps.
However, following a civil war in which Palestinian weapons played a dominant role, Lebanon officially annulled the agreement in 1987.
Weapons are distributed unevenly among the camps. Heavy weapons are found in the Ain Al-Hilweh camp, the most overcrowded camp and home to the various politically and militarily diverse factions, and in the Rashidieh camp in the Tyre region.
This is in contrast to the Nahr Al-Bared camp in the north, which is completely devoid of weapons. It has been under the control of the Lebanese Army since 2007, following violent battles that lasted for more than three months between the Lebanese Army and Fatah Al-Islam, which launched attacks against the military that killed dozens.
The disarmament process was scheduled to begin this week in the Shatila, Mar Elias, and Burj Al-Barajneh camps in Beirut and its southern suburbs.
“A committee was supposed to be formed to oversee implementation. There were discussions about assigning this role to the Lebanese-Palestinian Dialogue Committee, which was seen by some as the appropriate authority. However, others dismissed it as a political body unrelated to the issue. This raised further questions: Who would assume responsibility for internal Palestinian affairs once weapons were handed over? Who would manage security inside the camps? And who would handle the cases of wanted individuals and those who had taken refuge there?” a Palestinian source stated.
In recent months, the Lebanese Army has confiscated weapons from Palestinian military sites supported by the Syrian regime and located in the Bekaa Valley on the border with Syria. The most important of these was a base in Qusaya belonging to the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine, General Command and Fatah Al-Intifada, confiscating their equipment and ammunition.
Before the outbreak of the Nahr Al-Bared camp battles, Lebanese political leaders had agreed during national dialogue talks to disarm Palestinians outside the camps within six months.
This commitment was later echoed in the 2008 Doha Agreement, which outlined a national defense strategy that included addressing Palestinian arms both inside and outside the camps.
However, these decisions were never implemented. In the years that followed, Ain Al-Hilweh, the largest Palestinian refugee camp in Lebanon, repeatedly witnessed violent clashes among rival Palestinian factions.
Israel closes Al-Aqsa Mosque, Church of the Holy Sepulchre under ‘emergency’ measures
- Most shops in Jerusalem’s Old City have been closed, with only essential stores remaining open since Friday
- Palestinians in Jerusalem fear for their safety due to lack of proper shelters amid Israel-Iran conflict
LONDON: Israeli authorities in occupied East Jerusalem have imposed a closure for the fifth consecutive day on the Al-Aqsa Mosque and the Church of the Holy Sepulchre while barring non-resident visitors from entering the Old City.
Israel announced a state of emergency after beginning airstrikes against Iran on Friday. Tehran retaliated by launching ballistic missiles at Israeli coastal towns and cities. Israel’s emergency measures prevented Palestinians and worshipers from entering the Al-Aqsa Mosque and its courtyards, as well as the Church of the Holy Sepulchre.
The Palestinian Authority’s Jerusalem Governorate added on Tuesday that most shops in the Old City had been closed, with only essential stores remaining open since Friday, Wafa news agency reported.
Israeli authorities have permitted settlers to visit the area surrounding the Al-Aqsa compound and perform Jewish prayers and rituals, while forces have intensified daily raids on Palestinian towns and suburbs in Jerusalem, including the Mount of Olives, Silwan, Issawiya, Shufaat, Hizma, Eizariya, Bir Nabala and Al-Ram, Wafa added. East Jerusalem is surrounded by 84 checkpoints and barriers, including recently installed earth mounds and gates.
Although Jerusalem has been spared so far from the Israel-Iran conflict, Palestinians in the city fear for their safety due to a lack of proper shelters within their towns and neighborhoods, Wafa reported.
Israeli authorities in Jerusalem have announced the opening of schools to be used as shelters from Iranian missile attacks. However, some Palestinian experts warned that the facilities may not be large enough to accommodate a significant number of residents, and some are even unsuitable for receiving civilians.
WHO says Gaza health care at breaking point as fuel runs out
- “For over 100 days, no fuel has entered Gaza and attempts to retrieve stocks from evacuation zones have been denied,” said Peeperkorn
- Peeperkorn said only 17 of Gaza’s 36 hospitals were currently minimally to partially functional
GENEVA: The World Health Organization on Tuesday pleaded for fuel to be allowed into Gaza to keep its remaining hospitals running, warning the Palestinian territory’s health system was at “breaking point.”
“For over 100 days, no fuel has entered Gaza and attempts to retrieve stocks from evacuation zones have been denied,” said Rik Peeperkorn, the WHO’s representative in the Palestinian territories.
“Combined with critical supply shortages, this is pushing the health system closer to the brink of collapse.”
Peeperkorn said only 17 of Gaza’s 36 hospitals were currently minimally to partially functional. They have a total of around 1,500 beds — around 45 percent fewer than before the conflict began.
He said all hospitals and primary health centers in north Gaza were currently out of service.
In Rafah in southern Gaza, health services are provided through the Red Cross field hospital and two partially-functioning medical points.
Speaking from Jerusalem, he said the 17 partially functioning hospitals and seven field hospitals were barely running on a minimum amount of daily fuel and “will soon have none left.”
“Without fuel, all levels of care will cease, leading to more preventable deaths and suffering.”
Hospitals were already switching between generators and batteries to power ventilators, dialysis machines and incubators, he said, and without fuel, ambulances cannot run and supplies cannot be delivered to hospitals.
Furthermore, field hospitals are entirely reliant on generators, and without electricity, the cold chain for keeping vaccines would fail.
The war was triggered by an unprecedented Hamas attack on Israel on October 7, 2023, which resulted in the deaths of 1,219 people, according to official Israeli figures.
The health ministry in Hamas-run Gaza said on Monday that 5,194 people have been killed since Israel resumed strikes on the territory on March 18 following a truce.
The overall death toll in Gaza since the war broke out on October 7, 2023 has reached 55,493 people, according to the health ministry.
“People often ask when Gaza is going to be out of fuel; Gaza is already out of fuel,” said WHO trauma surgeon and emergency officer Thanos Gargavanis, speaking from the Strip.
“We are walking already the fine line that separates disaster from saving lives. The shrinking humanitarian space makes every health activity way more difficult than the previous day.”
How Israel used spies, smuggled drones and AI to stun and hobble Iran
- The Mossad and the military worked together for at least three years to lay the operational groundwork, according to a former intelligence officer who said he had knowledge of the attack
JERUSALEM: Israel stunned and hobbled Iran last week when it pulled off an intelligence and military operation years in the making that struck high-level targets with precision.
Guided by spies and artificial intelligence, the Israeli military unleashed a nighttime fusillade of warplanes and armed drones smuggled into Iran to quickly incapacitate many of its air defenses and missile systems. With greater freedom to fly over Iran, Israel bombarded key nuclear sites and killed top generals and scientists. By the time Iran mustered a response hours later, its ability to retaliate — already weakened by past Israeli strikes — was greatly diminished.
This account is based on conversations with 10 current and former Israeli intelligence and military officials, some of whom spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss clandestine operations.
It was not possible to independently verify some of their claims. But the former head of research at Israel’s spy agency, the Mossad, confirmed the basic contours of the attack, saying she had inside knowledge of how it was planned and executed.
“This attack is the culmination of years of work by the Mossad to target Iran’s nuclear program,” said Sima Shine, the former Mossad research director who is now an analyst at the Institute for National Security Studies.
Israel’s element of surprise was enhanced by Iranian officials’ apparent assumption that Israel wouldn’t attack while talks over its rapidly advancing nuclear program were ongoing with the US
A sixth round of talks had been planned for last Sunday in Oman, but Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu activated “Operation Rising Lion” on Friday – after his country first notified President Donald Trump.
Netanyahu has for years said neutralizing Iran’s nuclear program was vital for Israel’s security, and Israel had previously taken steps to set back Iran’s ability to enrich uranium to weapons grade. But Netanyahu said a more aggressive attack proved necessary, as Iran kept advancing its enrichment program despite US diplomatic efforts and warnings from UN watchdogs.
Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khameini has repeatedly called for Israel’s destruction. Iran’s political leaders say their nuclear program is for peaceful purposes, though it was the only country without the bomb to enrich uranium close to weapons-grade levels.
Smuggling drones into Iran
The Mossad and the military worked together for at least three years to lay the operational groundwork, according to a former intelligence officer who said he had knowledge of the attack. This person spoke on condition of anonymity given the sensitivity of the subject.
The attack built off knowledge Israel gained during a wave of airstrikes last October, which “highlighted the weakness of Iranian air defenses,” said Naysan Rafati, an Iran analyst at the International Crisis Group.
To further diminish Iranian air defenses and missile systems at the start of last week’s attack, Mossad agents had smuggled precision weapons into Iran that were prepositioned to strike from close range, according to two current security officials who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss the missions. Those weapons included small, armed drones, which agents snuck into the country in vehicles, according to the former intelligence officer.
Mossad agents stationed weapons close to Iranian surface-to-air missile sites, Shine said. The agency works with a mix of people, both locals and Israelis, she said.
Using AI and human intelligence to select targets
To analyze information gathered from various sources, Israel used the latest artificial-intelligence, or AI, technology, said an intelligence officer involved with selecting individuals and sites to target. He said AI was used to help Israelis quickly sift through troves of data they had obtained. That effort began last October according to the officer, who spoke on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to talk to the media; it was one month before Netanyahu said he had ordered the attack plans.
An investigation by The Associated Press earlier this year uncovered that the Israeli military uses US-made AI models in war to sift through intelligence and intercept communications to learn the movements of its enemies. It’s been used in the wars with Hamas in Gaza and with Hezbollah in Lebanon.
The intelligence officer involved in identifying the possible targets said options were first put into various groups, such as leadership, military, civilian and infrastructure. Targets were chosen if they were determined to be a threat to Israel, such as being deeply associated with Iran’s Revolutionary Guard — a paramilitary force that controls Iran’s ballistic missiles.
The officer was tasked with putting together a list of Iranian generals, including details on where they worked and spent their free time.
Among the high-level military officials killed since Friday’s attack were Gen. Hossein Salami, the head of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard, and Gen. Mohammed Bagheri, the chief of staff of Iran’s armed forces.
In addition to AI, the Mossad relied on spies to identify top nuclear scientists and members of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard, according to one security official. At least eight members of the Guard, including the head of its missile program, were killed in a single Israeli strike on an underground bunker.
Targeting Iranian vehicles
Another facet of the attack was to strike Iranian vehicles used to transport and launch missiles.
Shine said the strategy was similar to a Ukrainian operation earlier this month in Russia. In that operation, nearly a third of Moscow’s strategic bomber fleet was destroyed or damaged with cheaply made drones snuck into Russian territory, according to Ukrainian officials.
In an interview with Iranian state-run television, the country’s police chief, Gen. Ahmadreza Radan, said “several vehicles carrying mini-drones and some tactical drones have been discovered.” He added: “a number of traitors are trying to engage the country’s air defense by flying some mini-drones.”
How far back does this go?
The Mossad is believed to have carried out numerous covert attacks on the Iranian nuclear program over the years, including cyberattacks and the killing of Iranian nuclear scientists. But it rarely acknowledges such operations.
In the 2000s, Iranian centrifuges used for enriching uranium were destroyed by the so-called Stuxnet computer virus, believed to be an Israeli and American creation.
In 2018, Israel stole an archive of Iranian nuclear research that included tens of thousands of pages of records, said Yossi Kuperwasser, a retired general and former military intelligence researcher who now directs the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security.
In July 2024, Israel killed a senior leader of Hamas, Ismail Haniyeh, with a bomb in a bedroom of a government guesthouse in Tehran.
Israel’s blistering attack last week on the heart of Iran’s nuclear and military structure didn’t come out of nowhere, said retired Israeli Brig. Gen. Amir Avivi, who heads the Israel Defense and Security Forum think tank.
It was the result of “Israeli intelligence working extensively for years in Iran and establishing a very strong robust presence,” he said.
