The brutal logic of Hamas’ hostage strategy could deny Israel victory in Gaza

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Demonstrators protest against Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and call for new elections in the latest weekly protest against his handling of the Israel-Hamas war, in Tel Aviv, on Feb. 17, 2024. (AP/File)
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Updated 06 March 2024
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The brutal logic of Hamas’ hostage strategy could deny Israel victory in Gaza

  • Netanyahu has vowed to destroy Hamas and recover all the hostages, either through rescue missions or ceasefire agreements
  • Hamas, meanwhile, appears to be in no hurry to reach a temporary ceasefire ahead of the Muslim holy month of Ramadan

GAZA STRIP: Over the last five months, Israel has killed thousands of Hamas fighters, destroyed dozens of their tunnels and wreaked unprecedented destruction on the Gaza Strip.
But it still faces a dilemma that was clear from the start of the war and will ultimately determine its outcome: It can either try to annihilate Hamas, which would mean almost certain death for the estimated 100 hostages still held in Gaza, or it can cut a deal that would allow the militants to claim a historic victory.
Either outcome would be excruciating for Israelis. Either would likely seal an ignominious end for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s long political career. And either might be seen as acceptable by Hamas, which valorizes martyrdom.
Netanyahu, at least in public, denies there is any such dilemma. He has vowed to destroy Hamas and recover all the hostages, either through rescue missions or ceasefire agreements, saying victory could come “in a matter of weeks.”
As long as the war rages, he can avoid early elections that polls strongly suggest would remove him from power. But it seems inevitable that at some point a choice will have to be made between the hostages and military victory.
Hamas, meanwhile, appears to be in no hurry to reach a temporary ceasefire ahead of the Muslim holy month of Ramadan, which begins next week, or to delay an expected Israeli operation in Rafah, the southern city where half of Gaza’s population has sought refuge.
Hamas leader Yehya Sinwar, the alleged mastermind of the Oct. 7 attack against Israel, has reason to believe that as long as he holds the hostages, he can eventually end the war on his terms.
SINWAR’S BLOODY GAMBLE
In over two decades spent inside Israeli prisons, Sinwar reportedly learned fluent Hebrew and studied Israeli society, and he identified a chink in the armor of his militarily superior adversary.
He learned that Israel cannot tolerate its people, especially soldiers, being held captive, and will go to extraordinary lengths to bring them home. Sinwar himself was among over 1,000 Palestinian prisoners released in exchange for a single captive soldier in 2011.
For Sinwar, the mass killings on Oct. 7 might have been a horrific sideshow to the main operation, which was to drag large numbers of hostages into a vast labyrinth of tunnels beneath Gaza, where Israel would be unable to rescue them, and where they could serve as human shields for Hamas leaders.
Once that was accomplished, he had a powerful bargaining chip that could be traded for large numbers of Palestinian prisoners, including top leaders serving life sentences, and an end to the Israeli onslaught that Hamas had anticipated.
No amount of 2,000-pound bombs could overcome the strategy’s brutal logic.
Israeli officials say the tunnels stretch for hundreds of kilometers (miles) and some are several stories underground, guarded by blast doors and booby traps. Even if Israel locates Hamas leaders, any operation would mean almost certain death for the hostages that likely surround them.
“The objectives are quite contradictory,” said Amos Harel, a longtime military correspondent for Israel’s Haaretz newspaper. “Of course, you can say it will take a year to defeat Hamas, and we’re moving ahead on that, but the problem is that nobody can ensure that the hostages will remain alive.”
He added that even if Israel somehow kills Sinwar and other top leaders, others would move up the ranks and replace them, as has happened in the past.
“Israel will have a really hard time winning this,” Harel said.
Israel has successfully rescued three hostages since the start of the war, all of whom were aboveground. Israeli troops killed three hostages by mistake, and Hamas says several others were killed in airstrikes or failed rescue operations. More than 100 hostages were released in a ceasefire deal in exchange for Palestinians imprisoned by Israel.
Netanyahu says military pressure will eventually bring about the release of the roughly 100 hostages, and the remains of 30 others, still held by Hamas.
But in candid remarks in January, Gadi Eisenkot, Israel’s former top general and a member of Netanyahu’s War Cabinet, said anyone suggesting the remaining hostages could be freed without a ceasefire deal was spreading “illusions.”
It’s hard to imagine Hamas releasing its most valuable human shields for a temporary ceasefire, only to see Israel resume its attempt to annihilate the group, and Hamas has rejected the idea of its leaders surrendering and going into exile.
For Sinwar, it’s better to stay underground with the hostages and see if his bet pays off.
HOW DOES THIS END?
Netanyahu’s government is under mounting pressure from families of the hostages, who fear time is running out, and the wider public, which views the return of captives as a sacred obligation.
President Joe Biden, Israel’s most important ally, is at risk of losing re-election in November, in part because of Democratic divisions over the war. The humanitarian catastrophe in Gaza has sparked worldwide outrage. The war threatens to ignite other fronts across the Middle East.
There’s a Hamas proposal on the table in which the hostages come back alive.
It calls for the phased release of all of the captives in return for Israel’s gradual withdrawal from Gaza, a long-term ceasefire and reconstruction. Israel would also release hundreds of prisoners, including top Palestinian political leaders and militants convicted of killing civilians.
Hamas would almost certainly remain in control of Gaza and might even hold victory parades. With time, it could recruit new fighters, rebuild tunnels and replenish its arsenals.
It would be an extremely costly victory, with over 30,000 Palestinians killed and the total destruction of much of Gaza. Palestinians would have different opinions on whether it was all worth it.
A rare wartime poll last year found rising support for Hamas, with over 40 percent of Palestinians in the occupied West Bank and Gaza backing the group.
That support would only grow if Hamas succeeds in lifting the longstanding blockade on Gaza, said Tahani Mustafa, senior Palestine analyst at the Crisis Group, an international think tank.
“If this is able to bring some serious concessions that can make life just marginally better, then I think not only will this bolster support for Hamas, but it could also bolster support for armed resistance more broadly.”
Netanyahu has rejected Hamas’ proposal as “delusional,” but there is no sign the militant group is backing away from its core demands.
Israel can keep fighting – for weeks, months or years. The army can kill more fighters and demolish more tunnels, while carefully avoiding areas where it thinks the hostages are held.
But at some point, Netanyahu or his successor will likely have to make one of the most agonizing decisions in the country’s history, or it will be made for them.


Egypt unveils plan for new desert city in latest megaproject

Updated 5 sec ago
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Egypt unveils plan for new desert city in latest megaproject

  • The new city, named Jirian, meaning “Flow” in Arabic, is part of Egypt’s Nile Delta scheme, a massive agricultural initiative to reclaim about 2.5 million acres west of the original Nile Delta

CAIRO: Egypt has unveiled plans for a vast new urban development west of Cairo where a man-made channel of the River Nile will eventually wind through what was once arid desert.

The new city, named Jirian, meaning “Flow” in Arabic, is part of Egypt’s Nile Delta scheme, a massive agricultural initiative to reclaim about 2.5 million acres west of the original Nile Delta.

The ambitious agricultural project, which started in 2021, seeks to boost production of strategic crops such as wheat and corn while reducing the North African country’s food import bill.

The project is the latest in a string of megaprojects launched by President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi in recent years, including a new administrative capital east of Cairo.

While officials say these projects are key to Egypt’s long-term growth, they have also contributed to the country’s soaring foreign debt, which quadrupled since 2015 to reach $155.2 billion by late 2024.

The country has also received billions of dollars from the International Monetary Fund and the EU to ensure its financial stability, with the EU pledging billions more last month.

At a launch event on Sunday, Egyptian Prime Minister Moustafa Madbouli called the Jirian project “an urban and development revolution.”

He added that it would create 250,000 jobs and serve as the cornerstone of a wider development zone equivalent in size to four to five governorates.

“We are talking about full-spectrum development,” he told reporters, describing a sprawling urban zone that will include industry, logistics hubs, and homes for “between 2.5 and 3 million families.”

The government did not disclose the project’s total cost, which is being developed in partnership with three major Egyptian real estate firms.

The new Nile Delta project comes at a time when Egypt is already under pressure to secure its water future.

With 97 percent of its fresh water sourced from the Nile, the country has been locked in a years-long dispute with Addis Ababa over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, which Cairo fears could reduce downstream water flows.


Israel army says intercepts Yemen missile after air raid sirens sound

Updated 01 June 2025
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Israel army says intercepts Yemen missile after air raid sirens sound

  • Yemen’s Houthi insurgents later claimed to have fired a 'ballistic missile' at Israel’s Ben Gurion airport

JERUSALEM: The Israeli army said it had intercepted a missile fired from Yemen on Sunday after air raid sirens sounded in Jerusalem and other cities.
“Following the sirens that sounded a short while ago in several areas in Israel, a missile launched from Yemen was intercepted,” the army said in a statement.
Yemen’s Houthi insurgents later claimed to have fired a “ballistic missile” at Israel’s Ben Gurion airport.
The group’s military spokesman Yehya Saree said three drones were also launched at Israel.
The Iran-backed group has repeatedly launched missiles and drones at Israel since the Gaza war broke out in October 2023 with Palestinian militant group Hamas’s attack on Israel.
Almost all of the projectiles have been intercepted.
Sunday’s interception followed another reported attack on Thursday claimed by the Yemeni militants.
The Houthis, who say they are acting in solidarity with Palestinians, paused their attacks during a two-month Gaza ceasefire that ended in March, but began again after Israel resumed its military campaign in the territory.
While most of the projectiles have been intercepted, one missile fired in early May hit inside the perimeter of Ben Gurion airport for the first time.
Israel has carried out several strikes in Yemen in retaliation for the attacks, including on ports and the airport in the capital Sanaa.


Lebanese President Aoun reviews ties, cooperation with Iraqi official

Updated 11 min 50 sec ago
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Lebanese President Aoun reviews ties, cooperation with Iraqi official

  • Joseph Aoun said that Lebanon and Iraq face the challenge of terrorism, which is being addressed through security agencies
  • Lebanese and Iraqi presidents emphasized the urgency to end the Israeli war in the Gaza Strip and to support Palestinians

LONDON: Lebanese President Joseph Aoun discussed ties and cooperation with Iraqi President Abdul Latif Rashid and Prime Minister Mohammed Shia Al-Sudani during his visit to Iraq on Sunday.

Aoun stressed the importance of establishing an Arab mutual interest system to enhance shared interests among Arab countries during his meeting with Al-Sudani.

In a separate meeting with Rashid at the Presidential Palace in Baghdad, Aoun commended Iraq’s support and donations, including fuel shipments to generate electricity, for the Lebanese people during the recent round of the Israeli-Hezbollah war, which flared up in September 2024.

Aoun said that Lebanon and Iraq face the challenge of terrorism, which is being addressed through security agencies in both countries.

The two presidents emphasized the urgency to end the Israeli war in the Gaza Strip and to support the Palestinian cause without allowing it to be compromised, according to the NNA agency.

Aoun said that Israel must withdraw from the five areas inside the Lebanese territory it has controlled since 2024 and stop its repeated attacks on the country that undermine peace efforts in the region.

Rashid affirmed Iraq’s support for Lebanon and said that Baghdad views positively the recent developments in the country following the formation of the new government in early 2025.


Climate activist Greta Thunberg joins aid ship sailing to Gaza aimed at breaking Israel’s blockade

Updated 01 June 2025
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Climate activist Greta Thunberg joins aid ship sailing to Gaza aimed at breaking Israel’s blockade

  • The sailing boat Madleen – operated by activist group Freedom Flotilla Coalition — departed from the Sicilian port of Catania

CATANIA, Italy: Climate campaigner Greta Thunberg and other 11 activists set sail on Sunday afternoon for Gaza on a ship aimed at “breaking Israel’s siege” of the devastated territory, organizers said.

The sailing boat Madleen – operated by activist group Freedom Flotilla Coalition — departed from the Sicilian port of Catania, in southern Italy.

It will try to reach the shores of the Gaza Strip in an effort to bring in some aid and raise “international awareness” over the ongoing humanitarian crisis, the activists said at a press conference on Sunday, ahead of departure.

“We are doing this because, no matter what odds we are against, we have to keep trying,” Thunberg said, bursting into tears during her speech.

“Because the moment we stop trying is when we lose our humanity. And no matter how dangerous this mission is, it’s not even near as dangerous as the silence of the entire world in the face of the live-streamed genocide,” she added.

Israel, which was founded in the aftermath of the Holocaust, has adamantly rejected genocide allegations against it as an antisemitic “blood libel.”

In mid-May, Israel slightly eased its blockade of Gaza after nearly three months, allowing a limited amount of humanitarian aid into the territory.

Experts have warned that Gaza is at risk of famine if more aid is not brought in.

UN agencies and major aid groups say Israeli restrictions, the breakdown of law and order, and widespread looting make it extremely difficult to deliver aid to Gaza’s roughly 2 million Palestinians.

Among those joining the crew of the Madleen are “Game of Thrones” actor Liam Cunningham and Rima Hassan, a French member of the European Parliament who is of Palestinian descent. She has been barred from entering Israel due to her active opposition to the Israeli assault on Gaza.

The activists expect to take seven days to get to their destination, if they are not stopped.

Thunberg, who became an internationally famous climate activist after organizing massive teen protests in her native Sweden, had been due to board a previous Freedom Flotilla ship last month.

That attempt to reach Gaza by sea, in early May, failed after another of the group’s vessels, the “Conscience”, was attacked by two alleged drones while sailing in international waters off the coast of Malta.

The group blamed Israel for the attack, which damaged the front section of the ship, in the latest confrontation over efforts to send assistance to the Palestinian territory devastated by nearly 19 months of war.

The Israeli government says the blockade is an attempt to pressure Hamas to release hostages it took during the Oct. 7, 2023, attack that triggered the conflict. Hamas-led militants assaulted southern Israel that day, killing some 1,200 people, mostly civilians, and abducting 251. Hamas is still holding 58 hostages, 23 of whom are believed to be alive.

In response, Israel launched an offensive that has killed over 52,000 Palestinians, mostly women and children, according to Gaza’s Health Ministry, which does not distinguish between fighters and civilians. Israel’s bombardment and ground operations have destroyed vast areas of the territory and left most of its population homeless.

The Flotilla group was only the latest among a growing number of critics to accuse Israel of genocidal acts in its war in Gaza. Israel vehemently denies the allegations, saying its war is directed at Hamas militants, not Gaza’s civilians.

“We are breaking the siege of Gaza by sea, but that’s part of a broader strategy of mobilizations that will also attempt to break the siege by land,” said activist Thiago Avila.

Avila cited the upcoming Global March to Gaza — an international initiative also open to doctors, lawyers and media — which is set to leave Egypt and reach the Rafah crossing in mid-June to stage a protest there, asking Israel to stop the Gaza offensive and reopen the border.


Nearly 250,000 Syrians in Turkiye returned home after Assad regime collapse

Updated 01 June 2025
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Nearly 250,000 Syrians in Turkiye returned home after Assad regime collapse

  • The fall of Assad allowed for the voluntary return of tens of thousands of Syrian refugees to their homes
  • In May, 2,723,421 Syrians were living in Turkiye, compared to 3,737,369 in May 2021

LONDON: Nearly 250,000 Syrian refugees living in Turkiye have returned to Syria since the fall of Bashar Assad’s regime in December, which ended more than a decade of civil strife in the country.

Turkish Interior Minister Ali Yerlikaya announced on Sunday that data from the Turkish Immigration Directorate showed a significant decline in the number of Syrians with temporary protection status, with nearly 250,000 making a return journey to Syria.

In May, the directorate recorded 2,723,421 Syrians living in Turkiye, compared to 3,737,369 in May 2021, according to the SANA news agency. It added that the fall of Assad’s regime in December allowed for the voluntary return of tens of thousands of Syrian refugees to their homes.

The civil war in Syria, which began in 2011, has displaced nearly 8.5 million people, almost half of the population. The majority of them have ended up in Turkiye and refugee camps in Jordan and Lebanon.