GAZA STRIP: Over the last five months, Israel has killed thousands of Hamas fighters, destroyed dozens of their tunnels and wreaked unprecedented destruction on the Gaza Strip.
But it still faces a dilemma that was clear from the start of the war and will ultimately determine its outcome: It can either try to annihilate Hamas, which would mean almost certain death for the estimated 100 hostages still held in Gaza, or it can cut a deal that would allow the militants to claim a historic victory.
Either outcome would be excruciating for Israelis. Either would likely seal an ignominious end for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s long political career. And either might be seen as acceptable by Hamas, which valorizes martyrdom.
Netanyahu, at least in public, denies there is any such dilemma. He has vowed to destroy Hamas and recover all the hostages, either through rescue missions or ceasefire agreements, saying victory could come “in a matter of weeks.”
As long as the war rages, he can avoid early elections that polls strongly suggest would remove him from power. But it seems inevitable that at some point a choice will have to be made between the hostages and military victory.
Hamas, meanwhile, appears to be in no hurry to reach a temporary ceasefire ahead of the Muslim holy month of Ramadan, which begins next week, or to delay an expected Israeli operation in Rafah, the southern city where half of Gaza’s population has sought refuge.
Hamas leader Yehya Sinwar, the alleged mastermind of the Oct. 7 attack against Israel, has reason to believe that as long as he holds the hostages, he can eventually end the war on his terms.
SINWAR’S BLOODY GAMBLE
In over two decades spent inside Israeli prisons, Sinwar reportedly learned fluent Hebrew and studied Israeli society, and he identified a chink in the armor of his militarily superior adversary.
He learned that Israel cannot tolerate its people, especially soldiers, being held captive, and will go to extraordinary lengths to bring them home. Sinwar himself was among over 1,000 Palestinian prisoners released in exchange for a single captive soldier in 2011.
For Sinwar, the mass killings on Oct. 7 might have been a horrific sideshow to the main operation, which was to drag large numbers of hostages into a vast labyrinth of tunnels beneath Gaza, where Israel would be unable to rescue them, and where they could serve as human shields for Hamas leaders.
Once that was accomplished, he had a powerful bargaining chip that could be traded for large numbers of Palestinian prisoners, including top leaders serving life sentences, and an end to the Israeli onslaught that Hamas had anticipated.
No amount of 2,000-pound bombs could overcome the strategy’s brutal logic.
Israeli officials say the tunnels stretch for hundreds of kilometers (miles) and some are several stories underground, guarded by blast doors and booby traps. Even if Israel locates Hamas leaders, any operation would mean almost certain death for the hostages that likely surround them.
“The objectives are quite contradictory,” said Amos Harel, a longtime military correspondent for Israel’s Haaretz newspaper. “Of course, you can say it will take a year to defeat Hamas, and we’re moving ahead on that, but the problem is that nobody can ensure that the hostages will remain alive.”
He added that even if Israel somehow kills Sinwar and other top leaders, others would move up the ranks and replace them, as has happened in the past.
“Israel will have a really hard time winning this,” Harel said.
Israel has successfully rescued three hostages since the start of the war, all of whom were aboveground. Israeli troops killed three hostages by mistake, and Hamas says several others were killed in airstrikes or failed rescue operations. More than 100 hostages were released in a ceasefire deal in exchange for Palestinians imprisoned by Israel.
Netanyahu says military pressure will eventually bring about the release of the roughly 100 hostages, and the remains of 30 others, still held by Hamas.
But in candid remarks in January, Gadi Eisenkot, Israel’s former top general and a member of Netanyahu’s War Cabinet, said anyone suggesting the remaining hostages could be freed without a ceasefire deal was spreading “illusions.”
It’s hard to imagine Hamas releasing its most valuable human shields for a temporary ceasefire, only to see Israel resume its attempt to annihilate the group, and Hamas has rejected the idea of its leaders surrendering and going into exile.
For Sinwar, it’s better to stay underground with the hostages and see if his bet pays off.
HOW DOES THIS END?
Netanyahu’s government is under mounting pressure from families of the hostages, who fear time is running out, and the wider public, which views the return of captives as a sacred obligation.
President Joe Biden, Israel’s most important ally, is at risk of losing re-election in November, in part because of Democratic divisions over the war. The humanitarian catastrophe in Gaza has sparked worldwide outrage. The war threatens to ignite other fronts across the Middle East.
There’s a Hamas proposal on the table in which the hostages come back alive.
It calls for the phased release of all of the captives in return for Israel’s gradual withdrawal from Gaza, a long-term ceasefire and reconstruction. Israel would also release hundreds of prisoners, including top Palestinian political leaders and militants convicted of killing civilians.
Hamas would almost certainly remain in control of Gaza and might even hold victory parades. With time, it could recruit new fighters, rebuild tunnels and replenish its arsenals.
It would be an extremely costly victory, with over 30,000 Palestinians killed and the total destruction of much of Gaza. Palestinians would have different opinions on whether it was all worth it.
A rare wartime poll last year found rising support for Hamas, with over 40 percent of Palestinians in the occupied West Bank and Gaza backing the group.
That support would only grow if Hamas succeeds in lifting the longstanding blockade on Gaza, said Tahani Mustafa, senior Palestine analyst at the Crisis Group, an international think tank.
“If this is able to bring some serious concessions that can make life just marginally better, then I think not only will this bolster support for Hamas, but it could also bolster support for armed resistance more broadly.”
Netanyahu has rejected Hamas’ proposal as “delusional,” but there is no sign the militant group is backing away from its core demands.
Israel can keep fighting – for weeks, months or years. The army can kill more fighters and demolish more tunnels, while carefully avoiding areas where it thinks the hostages are held.
But at some point, Netanyahu or his successor will likely have to make one of the most agonizing decisions in the country’s history, or it will be made for them.
The brutal logic of Hamas’ hostage strategy could deny Israel victory in Gaza
https://arab.news/vp24c
The brutal logic of Hamas’ hostage strategy could deny Israel victory in Gaza
- Netanyahu has vowed to destroy Hamas and recover all the hostages, either through rescue missions or ceasefire agreements
- Hamas, meanwhile, appears to be in no hurry to reach a temporary ceasefire ahead of the Muslim holy month of Ramadan
Suspected attack by Yemen’s Houthi militia targets ship in the Red Sea
- A ship’s captain saw that “a missile splashed in close proximity to the vessel” as it traveled near the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, UKMTO reports
- Fortunately, the vessel and crew were not hit in the attack, which happened some 48 kilometers west of Yemen port city of Mocha
DUBAI: A suspected attack by Yemen’s Houthi rebels targeted a commercial ship late Sunday night traveling through the southern reaches of the Red Sea, though it caused no damage nor injuries, authorities said.
The attack comes as the rebels continue their monthslong assault targeting shipping through a waterway that typically sees $1 trillion in goods pass through it a year over the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza and Israel’s ground offensive in Lebanon.
A ship’s captain saw that “a missile splashed in close proximity to the vessel” as it traveled near the Bab el-Mandeb Strait connecting the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden, the British military’s United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations center said in an alert. The attack happened some 30 miles (48 kilometers) west of Yemen port city of Mocha.
“The vessel and crew are safe and proceeding to its next port of call,” the UKMTO added.
The Houthis did not immediately claim the attack. However, it can take the rebels hours or even days to acknowledge their assaults.
The Houthis have targeted more than 90 merchant vessels with missiles and drones since the war in Gaza started in October 2023. They seized one vessel and sank two in the campaign, which also killed four sailors. Other missiles and drones have either been intercepted by a US-led coalition in the Red Sea or failed to reach their targets, which have included Western military vessels as well.
The militia maintain that they target ships linked to Israel, the US or the UK to force an end to Israel’s campaign against Hamas in Gaza. However, many of the ships attacked have little or no connection to the conflict, including some bound for Iran.
The Houthis have shot down multiple American MQ-9 Reaper drones as well.
In the Houthi's last attack on Nov. 11, two US Navy warships targeted with multiple drones and missiles as they were traveling through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, but the attacks were not successful.
Israeli court jails Palestinian WAFA journalist Rasha Herzallah for six months
- Herzallah detention extended five times before charge of “incitement on social media” was brought at Israeli Salem military court
LONDON: An Israeli military court sentenced on Sunday the Palestinian journalist Rasha Herzallah to six months in jail and issued a fine of 13,000 shekels ($3,300).
Herzallah, 39, was working for the official Palestine News and Information Agency (WAFA) at the time of her arrest last June, when she was summoned for an investigation at the Israeli Huwwara detention center north of the occupied West Bank.
Her detention was extended five times before a charge of “incitement on social media” was brought in court.
She is the sister of Muhammad Herzallah, who died from his wounds in November 2023 after being shot in the head by Israeli forces during a raid of Nablus city, WAFA reported.
Herzallah’s court hearing was held at the Israeli Salem military base near Jenin, her family told WAFA. She is expected to be released from prison on Dec. 1.
She is among 94 Palestinian journalists currently detained in Israeli jails since Oct. 7, 2023.
WAFA reported that four female journalists, including Herzallah, Rola Hassanin, Bushra Al-Tawil, and Amal Shujaiyah, a journalism student from Birzeit University, remain in Israeli detention.
Cultural experts urge UN to shield Lebanon’s heritage
- Lebanon’s cultural heritage at large is being endangered by recurrent assaults on ancient cities such as Baalbek, Tyre, and Anjar, all UNESCO world heritage sites, and other historic landmarks.
BEIRUT: Hundreds of cultural professionals, including archeologists and academics, called on the UN to safeguard war-torn Lebanon’s heritage in a petition published on Sunday before a crucial UNESCO meeting.
Several Israeli strikes in recent weeks on Baalbek in the east and Tyre in the south hit close to ancient Roman ruins designated as UNESCO World Heritage sites.
The petition, signed by 300 prominent cultural figures, was sent to UNESCO chief Audrey Azoulay a day before a special session in Paris to consider listing Lebanese cultural sites under “enhanced protection.”
It urges UNESCO to protect Baalbek and other heritage sites by establishing “no-target zones” around them, deploying international observers, and enforcing measures from the 1954 Hague Convention on cultural heritage in conflict.
“Lebanon’s cultural heritage at large is being endangered by recurrent assaults on ancient cities such as Baalbek, Tyre, and Anjar, all UNESCO world heritage sites, as well as other historic landmarks,” says the petition.
It calls on influential states to push for an end to military action that destroys or damages sites, as well as adding protections or introducing sanctions.
Change Lebanon, the charity behind the petition, said signatories included museum curators, academics, archeologists, and writers in Britain, France, Italy, and the US.
Enhanced protection status gives heritage sites “high-level immunity from military attacks,” according to UNESCO.
“Criminal prosecutions and sanctions, conducted by the competent authorities, may apply in cases where individuals do not respect the enhanced protection granted to a cultural property,” it said.
In Baalbek, Israeli strikes on Nov. 6 hit near the city’s Roman temples, according to authorities, destroying a heritage house dating back to the French mandate and damaging the historic site.
The region’s governor said “a missile fell in the car park” of a 1,000-year-old temple, the closest strike since the start of the war.
The ruins host the prestigious Baalbek Festival each year, a landmark event founded in 1956 and now a fixture on the international cultural scene, featuring performances by music legends like Oum Kalthoum, Charles Aznavour and Ella Fitzgerald.
Lebanon says Israeli strike on central Beirut kills two
- “Israeli warplanes launched a strike on the Mar Elias area,” the official National News Agency said of a densely packed residential and shopping district
BEIRUT: Lebanon said an Israeli strike on central Beirut’s Mar Elias district killed two people, the second such raid targeting the capital Sunday after an earlier strike killed a Hezbollah official.
Israel has been heavily bombing Beirut’s southern suburbs, a Hezbollah stronghold, since all-out war erupted on September 23, but attacks on central Beirut have been rarer.
“Israeli warplanes launched a strike on the Mar Elias area,” the official National News Agency said of a densely packed residential and shopping district that also houses people displaced by the conflict.
The health ministry said the strike killed two people and wounded 13, raising an earlier toll of one dead and nine wounded.
AFP journalists heard the sound of explosions and then sirens amid a strong acrid smell of burning. AFP images showed a blaze at the site that firefighters were trying to extinguish.
A Lebanese security source, requesting anonymity, told AFP that the strike hit an electronics store in Mar Elias, without providing further details.
The NNA said the strike “targeted a Jamaa Islamiya center,” referring to a Sunni Muslim group allied to Palestinian militant group Hamas and Lebanon’s Hezbollah.
But Jamaa Islamiya lawmaker Imad Hout told AFP that “no center or institution affiliated with the group is located in the area targeted by the strike, and no member of the group was targeted.”
Earlier Sunday, a Lebanese security source said Hezbollah spokesman Mohammed Afif was killed in a strike on central Beirut’s Ras Al-Nabaa district.
Previous strikes claimed by Israel on Beirut’s southern suburbs have killed senior Hezbollah officials, including its leader Hassan Nasrallah in late September.
In the wake of Sunday’s strikes, the education minister said schools and higher education institutions in the Beirut area would remain closed for two days.
Netanyahu remains key obstacle to Middle East peace, says Israeli analyst
- 2002 Saudi Arabia Peace Plan seen as most viable framework for resolving Israeli-Palestinian conflict, achieving normalization between Israel and Arab world, Yossi Mekelberg argues
- He accuses Netanyahu of using wars in Gaza, Lebanon to delay his prosecution on corruption charges
Chicago, IL: Donald Trump’s re-election as US president could help bring peace between Palestinians and Israelis, but such progress would require a change in Israel’s leadership, said prominent Israeli analyst Yossi Mekelberg.
Speaking during an appearance on “The Ray Hanania Radio Show” Thursday, Mekelberg argued that while there is “wide-ranging” speculation about what the upcoming US president might do in his second term, the current Israeli administration needs to step down before peace can be achieved.
“In my opinion, Israel needs to change the government, full stop. I mean, for everyone’s sake,” said Mekelberg, who is a senior consulting fellow at the Middle East and North Africa Program at Chatham House.
Mekelberg underscored the relevance of the 2002 Saudi Arabia Peace Plan, which offers normalization with Israel in exchange for a complete withdrawal from occupied territories and a resolution to the Palestinian issue. He described it as “the most viable option to solve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict (in such a way) that both sides are satisfied.
“When we talk about normalization and we think about the UAE or Bahrain or Morocco, it was Saudi Arabia (that was) the first to offer this to put it on the table 22 years ago,” he said.
The Saudi initiative, first proposed at the 2002 Arab League Summit in Beirut and reaffirmed in 2007, has repeatedly been rejected by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government. The plan offered Israel full normalization with Arab states in exchange for a complete withdrawal from occupied territories, including the Gaza Strip, West Bank, East Jerusalem, and the Golan Heights.
“This has been on the table for more than 22 years. And I think this has always been the right approach,” Mekelberg argued. “We know that there were discussions about normalization over the (past) year or so before October 7th. There is no way in the world, if Israel refuses to make concessions on the Palestinian issues, that normalization will be back on the table.”
Before the outbreak of the Hamas-Israel conflict in October 2023, US-brokered normalization talks between Saudi Arabia and Israel appeared within reach. Netanyahu himself referenced this possibility during his speech at the UN General Assembly in September 2023, claiming the region was on the cusp of a “dramatic breakthrough.” However, the escalation of violence in Gaza first and Lebanon after derailed those efforts.
At the recent Riyadh summit, both Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan reiterated that normalization with Israel would not be discussed without significant progress toward establishing a two-state solution. Mekelberg said this stance reflects a broader consensus among Arab leaders that resolving the Palestinian issue is key to achieving lasting peace.
“We saw what happens when the Palestinian issue is not resolved … For some people, when you say that, the interpretation is almost like justifying what happened on October 7th. Obviously not. No one ever can justify something like this,” he noted, adding that conflicts that are left “to fester will catch you in all sorts (of ways) and will lead certain people to do all sorts of things,” leaving leaders to deal with the “fallout.”
This approach “is much worse for Israel than working toward peace in the first place,” Mekelberg said, criticizing the current Israeli narrative that dismisses Palestinian leadership as incapable of negotiation.
Mekelberg acknowledged the widespread criticism of the Palestinian Authority, which was established in the 1990s under the Oslo Accords to govern areas of the West Bank and Gaza. The Fatah-controlled body has been accused of impotence and ineffectiveness, particularly during the current crisis. As a result, Tel Aviv has dismissed the possibility of negotiating with its leaders, raising questions about who could lead Palestinian territories toward a viable peace process.
“Israel needs change on so many levels,” Mekelberg emphasized, highlighting Netanyahu’s extended tenure in power, spanning 15 years almost consecutively and additional terms between 1996 and 1999.
“(He) is longest serving (prime minister), more than David Ben Gurion, who’s founder of the country. He’s a master manipulator. He understands the Israeli political system and psyche in a way that no one knows better than him and he managed to win (the) election. The fact that he, considering what happened only a year ago, is still prime minister, is a complete and colossal failure to defend Israel.”
Netanyahu, who previously served as prime minister from 1996 to 1999 and from 2009 to 2021, returned to office in 2022 despite facing long-standing corruption charges. The indictments, filed in 2019, allege breach of trust, accepting bribes, and fraud. While he relinquished other ministerial roles, he has held onto the premiership, using his coalition with Israel’s most extreme political parties to influence the judicial system and delay his trial.
Critics argue that Netanyahu has exploited Israel’s volatile situation to postpone legal proceedings. This week, the Jerusalem District Court rejected his request for a further delay, and he is scheduled to testify on Dec. 2.
Referring to Netanyahu as a “Teflon politician” to whom no scandal seems to stick, Mekelberg questioned how long he could maintain his position. “And, I will be the first to admit, I don’t always understand what is the appeal.”
Discussing the potential impact of Trump’s re-election, Mekelberg voiced cautious optimism about the former president’s ability to broker peace. He downplayed concerns over Trump’s far-right appointees, noting that if his first term is any indication, “there will be people coming and going in this administration probably within a year.” However, he stressed that Trump’s success would hinge on major changes within Israel’s political landscape.
The Ray Hanania Radio Show is broadcast every Thursday in Michigan on WNZK AM 690 Radio at 5 p.m. on the US Arab Radio Network and is sponsored by Arab News. To listen to the full episode or past shows, visit ArabNews.com/RayRadioShow. To get more information on host Ray Hanania, visit ArabNews.com or his website at RayHanania.com.
