GAZA STRIP: Over the last five months, Israel has killed thousands of Hamas fighters, destroyed dozens of their tunnels and wreaked unprecedented destruction on the Gaza Strip.
But it still faces a dilemma that was clear from the start of the war and will ultimately determine its outcome: It can either try to annihilate Hamas, which would mean almost certain death for the estimated 100 hostages still held in Gaza, or it can cut a deal that would allow the militants to claim a historic victory.
Either outcome would be excruciating for Israelis. Either would likely seal an ignominious end for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s long political career. And either might be seen as acceptable by Hamas, which valorizes martyrdom.
Netanyahu, at least in public, denies there is any such dilemma. He has vowed to destroy Hamas and recover all the hostages, either through rescue missions or ceasefire agreements, saying victory could come “in a matter of weeks.”
As long as the war rages, he can avoid early elections that polls strongly suggest would remove him from power. But it seems inevitable that at some point a choice will have to be made between the hostages and military victory.
Hamas, meanwhile, appears to be in no hurry to reach a temporary ceasefire ahead of the Muslim holy month of Ramadan, which begins next week, or to delay an expected Israeli operation in Rafah, the southern city where half of Gaza’s population has sought refuge.
Hamas leader Yehya Sinwar, the alleged mastermind of the Oct. 7 attack against Israel, has reason to believe that as long as he holds the hostages, he can eventually end the war on his terms.
SINWAR’S BLOODY GAMBLE
In over two decades spent inside Israeli prisons, Sinwar reportedly learned fluent Hebrew and studied Israeli society, and he identified a chink in the armor of his militarily superior adversary.
He learned that Israel cannot tolerate its people, especially soldiers, being held captive, and will go to extraordinary lengths to bring them home. Sinwar himself was among over 1,000 Palestinian prisoners released in exchange for a single captive soldier in 2011.
For Sinwar, the mass killings on Oct. 7 might have been a horrific sideshow to the main operation, which was to drag large numbers of hostages into a vast labyrinth of tunnels beneath Gaza, where Israel would be unable to rescue them, and where they could serve as human shields for Hamas leaders.
Once that was accomplished, he had a powerful bargaining chip that could be traded for large numbers of Palestinian prisoners, including top leaders serving life sentences, and an end to the Israeli onslaught that Hamas had anticipated.
No amount of 2,000-pound bombs could overcome the strategy’s brutal logic.
Israeli officials say the tunnels stretch for hundreds of kilometers (miles) and some are several stories underground, guarded by blast doors and booby traps. Even if Israel locates Hamas leaders, any operation would mean almost certain death for the hostages that likely surround them.
“The objectives are quite contradictory,” said Amos Harel, a longtime military correspondent for Israel’s Haaretz newspaper. “Of course, you can say it will take a year to defeat Hamas, and we’re moving ahead on that, but the problem is that nobody can ensure that the hostages will remain alive.”
He added that even if Israel somehow kills Sinwar and other top leaders, others would move up the ranks and replace them, as has happened in the past.
“Israel will have a really hard time winning this,” Harel said.
Israel has successfully rescued three hostages since the start of the war, all of whom were aboveground. Israeli troops killed three hostages by mistake, and Hamas says several others were killed in airstrikes or failed rescue operations. More than 100 hostages were released in a ceasefire deal in exchange for Palestinians imprisoned by Israel.
Netanyahu says military pressure will eventually bring about the release of the roughly 100 hostages, and the remains of 30 others, still held by Hamas.
But in candid remarks in January, Gadi Eisenkot, Israel’s former top general and a member of Netanyahu’s War Cabinet, said anyone suggesting the remaining hostages could be freed without a ceasefire deal was spreading “illusions.”
It’s hard to imagine Hamas releasing its most valuable human shields for a temporary ceasefire, only to see Israel resume its attempt to annihilate the group, and Hamas has rejected the idea of its leaders surrendering and going into exile.
For Sinwar, it’s better to stay underground with the hostages and see if his bet pays off.
HOW DOES THIS END?
Netanyahu’s government is under mounting pressure from families of the hostages, who fear time is running out, and the wider public, which views the return of captives as a sacred obligation.
President Joe Biden, Israel’s most important ally, is at risk of losing re-election in November, in part because of Democratic divisions over the war. The humanitarian catastrophe in Gaza has sparked worldwide outrage. The war threatens to ignite other fronts across the Middle East.
There’s a Hamas proposal on the table in which the hostages come back alive.
It calls for the phased release of all of the captives in return for Israel’s gradual withdrawal from Gaza, a long-term ceasefire and reconstruction. Israel would also release hundreds of prisoners, including top Palestinian political leaders and militants convicted of killing civilians.
Hamas would almost certainly remain in control of Gaza and might even hold victory parades. With time, it could recruit new fighters, rebuild tunnels and replenish its arsenals.
It would be an extremely costly victory, with over 30,000 Palestinians killed and the total destruction of much of Gaza. Palestinians would have different opinions on whether it was all worth it.
A rare wartime poll last year found rising support for Hamas, with over 40 percent of Palestinians in the occupied West Bank and Gaza backing the group.
That support would only grow if Hamas succeeds in lifting the longstanding blockade on Gaza, said Tahani Mustafa, senior Palestine analyst at the Crisis Group, an international think tank.
“If this is able to bring some serious concessions that can make life just marginally better, then I think not only will this bolster support for Hamas, but it could also bolster support for armed resistance more broadly.”
Netanyahu has rejected Hamas’ proposal as “delusional,” but there is no sign the militant group is backing away from its core demands.
Israel can keep fighting – for weeks, months or years. The army can kill more fighters and demolish more tunnels, while carefully avoiding areas where it thinks the hostages are held.
But at some point, Netanyahu or his successor will likely have to make one of the most agonizing decisions in the country’s history, or it will be made for them.
The brutal logic of Hamas’ hostage strategy could deny Israel victory in Gaza
https://arab.news/vp24c
The brutal logic of Hamas’ hostage strategy could deny Israel victory in Gaza
- Netanyahu has vowed to destroy Hamas and recover all the hostages, either through rescue missions or ceasefire agreements
- Hamas, meanwhile, appears to be in no hurry to reach a temporary ceasefire ahead of the Muslim holy month of Ramadan
Charity says 400,000 children in Syria risk ‘severe malnutrition’ after US cuts
- More than 13 years of conflict in Syria ravaged the country, with the health system shattered and infrastructure hobbled
DAMASCUS: Save the Children said on Wednesday that more than 400,000 children in the Syrian Arab Republic were at risk of “severe malnutrition” after the US suspended aid, forcing the charity to slash operations in the country.
Bujar Hoxha, Save the Children’s Syria director, in a statement called on the international community to urgently fill the funding gap, warning that needs were “higher than ever” after years of war and economic collapse.
“More than 416,000 children in Syria are now at significant risk of severe malnutrition following the sudden suspension of foreign aid,” Save the Children said in a statement, adding separately that the cuts were those of the US.
The global aid situation has grown dire since US President Donald Trump ordered the dismantling of the US Agency for International Development early this year.
His administration scrapped 83 percent of humanitarian programs funded by USAID.
The agency had an annual budget of $42.8 billion, representing 42 percent of total global humanitarian aid.
The suspension has “forced the closure of one third of Save the Children’s life-saving nutrition activities” across Syria, the charity said, halting “vital care for over 40,500 children” aged under five.
Hoxha said the closure of the charity’s nutrition centers “comes at the worst possible time” with “the needs in Syria are higher than ever.”
Its clinics that are still open are “reporting a surge in malnutrition cases while struggling to keep up with the growing demand for care,” the charity added.
More than 13 years of conflict in Syria ravaged the country, with the health system shattered and infrastructure hobbled.
In February, a United Nations Development Programme report estimated that nine out of 10 Syrians now live in poverty and face food insecurity with “malnutrition on the rise, particularly among children.”
Save the Children said more than 650,000 children under five in Syria were now “chronically malnourished,” while more than 7.5 million children nationwide needed humanitarian assistance, which it said was the highest number since the crisis began.
Hoxha urged the international community to “urgently step up” to fill the funding gap.
Syrian children “are paying the price for decisions made thousands of miles away,” Hoxha added in the statement.
How falling cases of tuberculosis in Iraq reflect a wider health system recovery
- Iraq has halved its tuberculosis rate over the past decade through tech-driven diagnosis and expanded mobile health services
- AI-supported X-rays and GeneXpert machines now detect TB faster, even in remote areas and among high-risk populations
DUBAI: Sameer Abbas Mohamed, a Syrian refugee from Qamishli who fled to Iraq in 2013, was terrified when his one-year-old son, Yusuf, was diagnosed with tuberculosis. He knew the disease was life-threatening — and highly contagious.
“I have two older boys, and I was scared they would catch the disease,” said Mohamed, who lives in Qushtapa refugee camp for Syrians in Irbil, home to most of the 300,000 Syrian refugees in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq.
“Yusuf was also very young and I worried about losing him.”
Mohamed consulted several doctors when Yusuf began coughing. Scans revealed a mass on the right anterior wall of his chest. A diagnosis was finally made when a general surgeon reported the case to Iraq’s National TB Program.
Following surgery to remove the mass, Yusuf returned home, where nurses delivered an all-oral regimen, monitored his treatment, tracked his progress, offered support, and educated the family on isolation measures to prevent the disease’s spread.
Within six months, Yusuf was cured.
His journey reflects the progress made in combating TB in Iraq, especially the drug-resistant variant that has emerged in the conflict-affected country — which until recently had the region’s highest prevalence of TB cases.
Iraq’s NTP, supported by the International Organization for Migration, the Global Fund, and the World Health Organization, is tracking TB among displaced communities using advanced diagnostic technologies and artificial intelligence.
Giorgi Gigauri, IOM Iraq’s chief of mission, told Arab News that TB detection and timely treatment have helped to drive a significant decline in cases in Iraq.
This was achieved, he said, through a tech-driven strategy, including the installation of the advanced 10-color GeneXpert detection machine across Baghdad, Basrah, Najaf and Nineveh, enabling faster diagnoses.
IOM’s mobile medical teams were also equipped with 10 AI-supported chest X-ray devices, known as CAD4-TB, which can detect the disease in seconds — even in high-burden areas such as refugee camps and prisons.
FAST FACTS
• TB is caused by the Mycobacterium tuberculosis bacterium that primarily affects the lungs.
• It spreads through airborne droplets when an infected person coughs or sneezes.
• Symptoms include a persistent cough, chest pain, fever, night sweats and weight loss.
• With proper treatment using antibiotics, TB is curable, though drug-resistant strains exist.
Routine screenings by these mobile units helped to increase the detection rate of drug-resistant TB from 2 percent to 19 percent, and drug-sensitive TB from 4 percent to 14 percent between 2019 and 2024, according to IOM data.
After screening, sputum samples are taken to central labs, making testing accessible for those unable to travel or living in areas with limited health care access.
Thanks to these efforts, TB cases in Iraq have fallen dramatically — from 45 to 23 cases per 100,000 people between 2013 and 2023. The current prevalence is 15 per 100,000, with an estimated mortality rate of three per 100,000.
In many ways, these numbers reflect Iraq’s wider public health recovery after decades of instability, including the crippling sanctions of the 1990s, the successive bouts of violence that followed the 2003 US-led invasion, and the 2014 rise of Daesh.
“Despite years of instability, progress made in the detection, treatment and prevention of the spread of TB restored trust in health care services by strengthening infrastructure and extending care to vulnerable groups like prisoners and displaced populations,” Gigauri told Arab News.
“It also supports upskilling of health professions and creates sustainable systems that can support responses to other communicable diseases.
“Efforts made by all partners under NTP have contributed to national recovery by addressing urgent health needs and laying a foundation for timely detection of preventable and treatable diseases.”
Despite a period of relative stability, Iraq still faces considerable humanitarian pressures amid a fragile economy and an unpredictable security landscape. According to UNHCR, more than 1 million Iraqis remain internally displaced, with 115,000 living in 21 camps across the Kurdistan Region.
Roughly five million displaced people have returned to their towns and villages since Daesh’s territorial defeat in 2017. But these areas often lack basic infrastructure, increasing the risk of TB outbreaks.
In Mosul — Iraq’s second-largest city, which endured three years under Daesh — those unable to afford housing live in overcrowded settlements, where malnutrition and exposure to the elements weaken immunity.
The mobile medical teams have been a game-changer for these vulnerable communities.
Digital X-rays equipped with CAD4-TB, powered by AI, now enable quick and accurate TB detection — a stark improvement from the three-month wait many patients once faced for CT scans.
This technology also reduces radiation exposure. A single CT scan can expose patients to the equivalent of 300 X-rays, according to Dr. Bashar Hashim Abbas, manager of the Chest and Respiratory Diseases clinic in Mosul.
Abbas said that mobile medical teams and digital X-ray devices have been vital for reaching remote communities and detainees who lack clinic access.
“The mobility of these machines helped us examine prisoners who were difficult to bring into the clinic due to complex security protocols. We discovered many cases, especially multidrug-resistant TB patients, in this way,” Abbas told Arab News.
“We conduct X-rays and take sputum samples for further lab investigations. Therefore, we take the diagnostic tools to them as much as we can, scaling up TB prevention and providing treatment.”
A centralized disease surveillance system, District Health Information Software 2, allows lab results to be registered and coordinated across labs, facilities, and the Iraqi Ministry of Health, improving routine TB reporting.
IOM’s TB services reached 6,398 people in 2024, with 120 drug-resistant TB cases treated. These efforts have been bolstered by $11 million in Global Fund support since 2022.
A key breakthrough has been shifting the treatment of multidrug-resistant TB from a burdensome series of injections to a simpler, all-oral regimen, which shortened recovery time from two years to six months and significantly improved outcomes.
“Previously, treatments involved daily injections for at least six to eight months, which were difficult to sustain for patients and treatment outcomes were relatively poor at 50 percent,” Grania Brigden, senior TB adviser at the Global Fund, told Arab News.
“However, the innovation in treatment through the all-oral regimen has reduced treatment to six months with a 75 percent to 80 percent success rate.”
Although no new TB vaccines are currently available, researchers are optimistic about developing more effective ones in the next five years. The existing BCG vaccine offers only partial protection and is less effective for adults and adolescents, who are more prone to transmission.
New vaccines are vital for achieving the WHO’s End TB Strategy goals — reducing TB mortality by 95 percent and incidence by 90 percent by 2035. Brigden said ongoing investment is key to meeting these targets.
Meanwhile, the Global Fund is focused on halting TB’s spread in Iraq. “We have invested significantly in commodity security to ensure that everyone who tests positive or is notified of TB is put on treatment,” said Brigden.
Thanks to these steps, many — like young Yusuf — are alive today who might otherwise have succumbed without proper care.
“The discussions of tuberculosis we had with the nurse who gave the medication had a positive impact on us,” said Yusuf’s father, Mohamed.
“The nurse gave us information on how to isolate him after the first two to three weeks. He reassured us that if we gave him the medication regularly and made sure there were no gaps, everything would be getting well.
“This made us less scared.”
Anxiety clouds Easter for West Bank Christians
- ‘There is a constant fear, you go to bed with it, you wake up with it’
ZABABDEH: In the mainly Christian Palestinian town of Zababdeh, the runup to Easter has been overshadowed by nearby Israeli military operations, which have proliferated in the occupied West Bank alongside the Gaza war.
This year unusually Easter falls on the same weekend for all of the town’s main Christian communities — Catholic, Orthodox and Anglican — and residents have attempted to busy themselves with holiday traditions like making date cakes or getting ready for the scout parade.
But their minds have been elsewhere.
Dozens of families from nearby Jenin have found refuge in Zababdeh from the continual Israeli military operations that have devastated the city and its adjacent refugee camp this year.
“The other day, the (Israeli) army entered Jenin, people were panicking, families were running to pick up their children,” said Zababdeh resident Janet Ghanam.
“There is a constant fear, you go to bed with it, you wake up with it,” the 57-year-old Anglican added, before rushing off to one of the last Lenten prayers before Easter.
Ghanam said her son had told her he would not be able to visit her for Easter this year, for fear of being stuck at the Israeli military roadblocks that have mushroomed across the territory.
Zababdeh looks idyllic, nestled in the hills of the northern West Bank, but the roar of Israeli air force jets sometimes drowns out the sound of its church bells.
“It led to a lot of people to think: ‘Okay, am I going to stay in my home for the next five years?’” said Saleem Kasabreh, an Anglican deacon in the town.
“Would my home be taken away? Would they bomb my home?“
Kasabreh said this “existential threat” was compounded by constant “depression” at the news from Gaza, where the death toll from the Israel’s response to Hamas’s October 2023 attack now tops 51,000, according to Gaza’s Health Ministry.
Zababdeh has been spared the devastation wreaked on Gaza, but the mayor’s office says nearly 450 townspeople lost their jobs in Israel when Palestinian work permits were rescinded after the Hamas attack.
“Israel had never completely closed us in the West Bank before this war,” said 73-year-old farmer Ibrahim Daoud. “Nobody knows what will happen.”
Many say they are stalked by the spectre of exile, with departures abroad fueling fears that Christians may disappear from the Holy Land.
“People can’t stay without work and life isn’t easy,” said 60-year-old math teacher Tareq Ibrahim.
Mayor Ghassan Daibes echoed his point.
“For a Christian community to survive, there must be stability, security and decent living conditions. It’s a reality, not a call for emigration,” he said.
“But I’m speaking from lived experience: Christians used to make up 30 percent of the population in Palestine; today, they are less than one percent.
“And this number keeps decreasing. In my own family, I have three brothers abroad — one in Germany, the other two in the United States.”
Catholic priest Elias Tabban adopted a more stoical attitude, insisting his congregation’s spirituality had never been so vibrant.
“Whenever the Church is in hard times... (that’s when) you see the faith is growing,” Tabban said.
Houthi media says US air strikes hit Sanaa
- Houthi-held areas of Yemen have endured near-daily strikes, blamed on the United States, since Washington launched an air campaign against the militia on March 15
SANAA: Houthi media said more than a dozen air strikes hit the militia-held capital Sanaa on Wednesday, blaming them on the United States.
Houthi-held areas of Yemen have endured near-daily strikes, blamed on the United States, since Washington launched an air campaign against the militia on March 15 in an attempt to end their threats to shipping in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden.
“Fourteen air strikes carried out by American aggression hit the Al-Hafa area in the Al-Sabeen district in the capital,” the Houthis’ Al-Masirah TV reported.
It also reported strikes blamed on the United States in the Hazm area of Jawf province.
The US campaign followed Houthi threats to resume their attacks on international shipping over Israel’s aid blockade on the Gaza Strip.
Since March 15, the Houthis have also resumed attacks targeting US military ships and Israel, saying they are acting in solidarity with Palestinians in the Gaza Strip.
The Houthis began targeting ships transiting the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden, as well as Israeli territory, after the Gaza war began in October 2023, later pausing their attacks during a recent two-month ceasefire.
Israel cut off all supplies to Gaza at the beginning of March and resumed its offensive in the Palestinian territory on March 18, ending the truce.
The vital Red Sea route, connecting to the Suez Canal, normally carries about 12 percent of world shipping traffic, but the Houthi attacks forced many companies to make a long detour around the tip of southern Africa.
At least 8,000 missing in war-torn Sudan in 2024: Red Cross
PORT SUDAN: At least 8,000 people were reported missing in war-ravaged Sudan in 2024, the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) said on Wednesday, adding that the figure is just “the tip of the iceberg.”
“These are just the cases we have collected directly,” Daniel O’Malley, head of the ICRC delegation in Sudan, told AFP. “We know this is just a small percentage — the tip of the iceberg — of the whole caseload of missing.”
