GAZA STRIP: Over the last five months, Israel has killed thousands of Hamas fighters, destroyed dozens of their tunnels and wreaked unprecedented destruction on the Gaza Strip.
But it still faces a dilemma that was clear from the start of the war and will ultimately determine its outcome: It can either try to annihilate Hamas, which would mean almost certain death for the estimated 100 hostages still held in Gaza, or it can cut a deal that would allow the militants to claim a historic victory.
Either outcome would be excruciating for Israelis. Either would likely seal an ignominious end for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s long political career. And either might be seen as acceptable by Hamas, which valorizes martyrdom.
Netanyahu, at least in public, denies there is any such dilemma. He has vowed to destroy Hamas and recover all the hostages, either through rescue missions or ceasefire agreements, saying victory could come “in a matter of weeks.”
As long as the war rages, he can avoid early elections that polls strongly suggest would remove him from power. But it seems inevitable that at some point a choice will have to be made between the hostages and military victory.
Hamas, meanwhile, appears to be in no hurry to reach a temporary ceasefire ahead of the Muslim holy month of Ramadan, which begins next week, or to delay an expected Israeli operation in Rafah, the southern city where half of Gaza’s population has sought refuge.
Hamas leader Yehya Sinwar, the alleged mastermind of the Oct. 7 attack against Israel, has reason to believe that as long as he holds the hostages, he can eventually end the war on his terms.
SINWAR’S BLOODY GAMBLE
In over two decades spent inside Israeli prisons, Sinwar reportedly learned fluent Hebrew and studied Israeli society, and he identified a chink in the armor of his militarily superior adversary.
He learned that Israel cannot tolerate its people, especially soldiers, being held captive, and will go to extraordinary lengths to bring them home. Sinwar himself was among over 1,000 Palestinian prisoners released in exchange for a single captive soldier in 2011.
For Sinwar, the mass killings on Oct. 7 might have been a horrific sideshow to the main operation, which was to drag large numbers of hostages into a vast labyrinth of tunnels beneath Gaza, where Israel would be unable to rescue them, and where they could serve as human shields for Hamas leaders.
Once that was accomplished, he had a powerful bargaining chip that could be traded for large numbers of Palestinian prisoners, including top leaders serving life sentences, and an end to the Israeli onslaught that Hamas had anticipated.
No amount of 2,000-pound bombs could overcome the strategy’s brutal logic.
Israeli officials say the tunnels stretch for hundreds of kilometers (miles) and some are several stories underground, guarded by blast doors and booby traps. Even if Israel locates Hamas leaders, any operation would mean almost certain death for the hostages that likely surround them.
“The objectives are quite contradictory,” said Amos Harel, a longtime military correspondent for Israel’s Haaretz newspaper. “Of course, you can say it will take a year to defeat Hamas, and we’re moving ahead on that, but the problem is that nobody can ensure that the hostages will remain alive.”
He added that even if Israel somehow kills Sinwar and other top leaders, others would move up the ranks and replace them, as has happened in the past.
“Israel will have a really hard time winning this,” Harel said.
Israel has successfully rescued three hostages since the start of the war, all of whom were aboveground. Israeli troops killed three hostages by mistake, and Hamas says several others were killed in airstrikes or failed rescue operations. More than 100 hostages were released in a ceasefire deal in exchange for Palestinians imprisoned by Israel.
Netanyahu says military pressure will eventually bring about the release of the roughly 100 hostages, and the remains of 30 others, still held by Hamas.
But in candid remarks in January, Gadi Eisenkot, Israel’s former top general and a member of Netanyahu’s War Cabinet, said anyone suggesting the remaining hostages could be freed without a ceasefire deal was spreading “illusions.”
It’s hard to imagine Hamas releasing its most valuable human shields for a temporary ceasefire, only to see Israel resume its attempt to annihilate the group, and Hamas has rejected the idea of its leaders surrendering and going into exile.
For Sinwar, it’s better to stay underground with the hostages and see if his bet pays off.
HOW DOES THIS END?
Netanyahu’s government is under mounting pressure from families of the hostages, who fear time is running out, and the wider public, which views the return of captives as a sacred obligation.
President Joe Biden, Israel’s most important ally, is at risk of losing re-election in November, in part because of Democratic divisions over the war. The humanitarian catastrophe in Gaza has sparked worldwide outrage. The war threatens to ignite other fronts across the Middle East.
There’s a Hamas proposal on the table in which the hostages come back alive.
It calls for the phased release of all of the captives in return for Israel’s gradual withdrawal from Gaza, a long-term ceasefire and reconstruction. Israel would also release hundreds of prisoners, including top Palestinian political leaders and militants convicted of killing civilians.
Hamas would almost certainly remain in control of Gaza and might even hold victory parades. With time, it could recruit new fighters, rebuild tunnels and replenish its arsenals.
It would be an extremely costly victory, with over 30,000 Palestinians killed and the total destruction of much of Gaza. Palestinians would have different opinions on whether it was all worth it.
A rare wartime poll last year found rising support for Hamas, with over 40 percent of Palestinians in the occupied West Bank and Gaza backing the group.
That support would only grow if Hamas succeeds in lifting the longstanding blockade on Gaza, said Tahani Mustafa, senior Palestine analyst at the Crisis Group, an international think tank.
“If this is able to bring some serious concessions that can make life just marginally better, then I think not only will this bolster support for Hamas, but it could also bolster support for armed resistance more broadly.”
Netanyahu has rejected Hamas’ proposal as “delusional,” but there is no sign the militant group is backing away from its core demands.
Israel can keep fighting – for weeks, months or years. The army can kill more fighters and demolish more tunnels, while carefully avoiding areas where it thinks the hostages are held.
But at some point, Netanyahu or his successor will likely have to make one of the most agonizing decisions in the country’s history, or it will be made for them.
The brutal logic of Hamas’ hostage strategy could deny Israel victory in Gaza
https://arab.news/vp24c
The brutal logic of Hamas’ hostage strategy could deny Israel victory in Gaza
- Netanyahu has vowed to destroy Hamas and recover all the hostages, either through rescue missions or ceasefire agreements
- Hamas, meanwhile, appears to be in no hurry to reach a temporary ceasefire ahead of the Muslim holy month of Ramadan
Israel strike on south Lebanon kills one
- The Israeli army said the strike killed a regional commander “of Hezbollah’s rocket array"
BEIRUT: Lebanese official media said an Israeli strike killed one person in the south on Saturday despite a six-month-old ceasefire, as Israel said it targeted a Hezbollah militant.
The state-run National News Agency (NNA) said a man was killed when an Israeli drone targeted his car as he was heading to pray at a mosque in Deir Al-Zahrani, about 20 kilometers (12 miles) from the Israeli border.
Israel has continued to bomb Lebanon despite the November 27 truce that sought to halt more than a year of hostilities with Hezbollah including two months of open war.
The Israeli army said the strike killed a regional commander “of Hezbollah’s rocket array.”
It charged that during the conflict, the operative “advanced numerous projectile attacks... and was involved recently in efforts to reestablish Hezbollah’s terrorist infrastructure” in south Lebanon.
Under the terms of the ceasefire, Hezbollah fighters were to pull back north of the Litani River, some 30 kilometers (20 miles) from the border, and dismantle military infrastructure to its south.
Israel was to withdraw all forces from Lebanon but it has kept troops in five areas it deems “strategic.”
The Lebanese army has deployed in the south and has been dismantling Hezbollah infrastructure.
Syrian Kurdish commander in touch with Turkiye, open to meeting Erdogan
BEIRUT: The commander of Kurdish forces that control northeast Syria said on Friday that his group is in direct contact with Turkiye and that he would be open to improving ties, including by meeting Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan.
The public comments represented a significant diplomatic overture by Mazloum Abdi, whose Syrian Democratic Forces fought Turkish troops and Ankara-backed Syrian rebels during Syria’s 14-year civil war.
Turkiye has said the main Kurdish group at the core of the SDF is indistinguishable from the militant Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), which decided earlier this month to disband after 40 years of conflict with Turkiye.
Abdi told regional broadcaster Shams TV in an interview aired on Friday that his group was in touch with Turkiye, without saying how long the communication channels had been open.
“We have direct ties, direct channels of communication with Turkiye, as well as through mediators, and we hope that these ties are developed,” Abdi said. There was no immediate comment from Turkiye on Abdi’s remarks.
He noted his forces and Turkish fighters “fought long wars against each other” but that a temporary truce had brought a halt to those clashes for the last two months. Abdi said he hoped the truce could become permanent.
When asked whether he was planning to meet Erdogan, Abdi said he had no current plans to do so but “I am not opposed... We are not in a state of war with Turkiye and in the future, ties could be developed between us. We’re open to this.”
The Al-Monitor news website reported on Friday that Turkiye had proposed a meeting between Abdi and a top Turkish official, possibly Turkiye’s foreign minister or its intelligence chief.
A Turkish diplomatic source denied the report, saying “the claims about Turkiye and our country’s authorities” in the story were “not true,” without elaborating.
In December, Turkiye and the SDF agreed on a US-mediated ceasefire after fighting broke out as rebel groups advanced on Damascus and overthrew Bashar Assad.
Abdi in March signed a deal with Syria’s interim President Ahmed Al-Sharaa to incorporate the semi-autonomous administration of northeast Syria into the main state institutions based in Damascus.
On Thursday, Erdogan accused the SDF of “stalling” implementation of that deal.
In the interview, Abdi denied accusations that the SDF was in contact with Israel.
“People have accused us of this. In this interview, I am saying publicly that we have no ties with Israel,” he said.
But he said his group supported good ties with Syria’s neighbors. When asked if that included Israel, Abdi responded, “with everyone.”
Israel blocks Ramallah meeting with Arab ministers, Israeli official says
- Palestinian Authority official says that the issue of whether the meeting in Ramallah would be able to go ahead is under discussion
- The move comes ahead of an international conference due to be held in New York on June 17-20 to discuss the issue of Palestinian statehood
JERUSALEM: Israel will not allow a planned meeting in the Palestinian administrative capital of Ramallah, in the occupied West Bank, to go ahead, an Israeli official said on Saturday, after media reported that Arab ministers planning to attend had been stopped from coming.
The delegation included ministers from Jordan, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates, Palestinian Authority officials said. The ministers would require Israeli consent to travel to the West Bank from Jordan.
An Israeli official said the ministers intended to take part in “a provocative meeting” to discuss promoting the establishment of a Palestinian state.
“Such a state would undoubtedly become a terrorist state in the heart of the land of Israel,” the official said. “Israel will not cooperate with such moves aimed at harming it and its security.”
A Palestinian Authority official said that the issue of whether the meeting in Ramallah would be able to go ahead was under discussion.
The move comes ahead of an international conference, co-chaired by France and Saudi Arabia, due to be held in New York on June 17-20 to discuss the issue of Palestinian statehood.
Israel has come under increasing pressure from the United Nations and European countries which favor a two-state solution to the Israeli Palestinian conflict, under which an independent Palestinian state would exist alongside Israel.
French President Emmanuel Macron said on Friday that recognizing a Palestinian state was not only a “moral duty but a political necessity.”
Israel threatens Hamas with ‘annihilation’ as Trump says Gaza ceasefire close
- Israel has repeatedly said that the destruction of Hamas was a key aim of the war
- At least 4,058 people had been killed since Israel resumed military operations on March 18
GAZA CITY, Palestinian Territories: Israel on Friday said Hamas must accept a hostage deal in Gaza or “be annihilated,” as US President Donald Trump announced that a ceasefire agreement was “very close.”
It came amid dire conditions on the ground, with the United Nations warning that Gaza’s entire population was at risk of famine.
Defense Minister Israel Katz said Hamas must agree to a ceasefire proposal presented by US envoy Steve Witkoff or be destroyed, after the Palestinian militant group said the deal failed to satisfy its demands.
“The Hamas murderers will now be forced to choose: accept the terms of the ‘Witkoff Deal’ for the release of the hostages – or be annihilated.”
Israel has repeatedly said that the destruction of Hamas was a key aim of the war.
Negotiations to end nearly 20 months of war in Gaza have so far failed to achieve a breakthrough, with Israel resuming operations in March following a short-lived truce.
In the United States, Trump told reporters “they’re very close to an agreement on Gaza,” adding: “We’ll let you know about it during the day or maybe tomorrow.”
Food shortages in Gaza persist, with aid only trickling in after the partial lifting by Israel of a more than two-month blockade.
Jens Laerke, a spokesman for the UN humanitarian agency, called Gaza “the hungriest place on Earth.”
“It’s the only defined area – a country or defined territory within a country – where you have the entire population at risk of famine,” he said.
Later, the UN condemned the “looting of large quantities of medical equipment” and other supplies “intended for malnourished children” from one of its Gaza warehouses by armed individuals.
Aid groups have warned that desperation for food and medicine among Gazans was causing security to deteriorate.
Israel has doubled down on its settlement expansion in the occupied West Bank, while defying calls from French President Emmanuel Macron and other world leaders for a two-state solution.
This week Israel announced the creation of 22 new settlements in the Palestinian territory, which Israel has occupied since 1967.
London said the move was a “deliberate obstacle” to Palestinian statehood while Egypt called it “a provocative and blatant new violation of international law and Palestinian rights.”
The 57-member Organization of Islamic Cooperation, which includes Egypt, also condemned Israel’s decision.
On Friday, Katz vowed to build a “Jewish Israeli state” in the West Bank.
Israeli settlements in the Palestinian territory are considered illegal under international law and seen as a major obstacle to a lasting peace in the decades-long Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
Katz framed the move as a direct rebuke to Macron and others pushing for recognition of a Palestinian state.
Macron on Friday said that recognition of a Palestinian state, with some conditions, was “not only a moral duty, but a political necessity.”
Israel’s foreign ministry accused the French president of undertaking a “crusade against the Jewish state.”
Separately, a diplomatic source said that Saudi Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan would make the first visit of its kind to the West Bank on Sunday.
The White House announced on Thursday that Israel had “signed off” on a new ceasefire proposal submitted to Hamas.
The Palestinian group said the deal failed to satisfy its demands, but stopped short of rejecting it outright, saying it was “holding consultations” on the proposal.
Gaza’s civil defense agency said that at least 45 people had been killed in Israeli attacks on Friday, including seven in a strike targeting a family home in Jabalia in the northern Gaza Strip.
Palestinians sobbed over the bodies of their loved ones at Gaza City’s Al-Shifa Hospital following the strike, AFPTV footage showed.
“These were civilians and were sleeping at their homes,” said neighbor Mahmud Al-Ghaf, describing “children in pieces.”
The Israeli military did not immediately respond to a request for comment, but said separately that the air force had hit “dozens of targets” across Gaza over the past day.
The health ministry in Hamas-run Gaza said on Friday that at least 4,058 people had been killed since Israel resumed operations on March 18, taking the war’s overall toll to 54,321, mostly civilians.
Hamas’s 2023 attack on Israel resulted in the deaths of 1,218 people, also mostly civilians, according to an AFP tally based on official figures.
Of the 251 hostages seized during Hamas’s attack, 57 remain in Gaza, including 34 the Israeli military says are dead.
Tunisia row over ‘repressive’ transfers of political detainees
- Weekly prison visits in Tunisia allow families to bring prisoners baskets of food to last them through the week
TUNIS: Several jailed Tunisian opposition figures have been transferred without prior notice to prisons far from their families in a move their lawyers and relatives on Friday denounced as “repressive.”
At least seven political figures were moved on Thursday from Mornaguia prison near Tunis to remote facilities, lawyer Dalila Msaddek told AFP.
Prominent figure Issam Chebbi was taken to a jail in Tunisia’s northernmost city of Bizerte, while Ridha BelHajj was moved to Siliana some two hours south of Tunis.
“They were moved without any warning to their families or lawyers,” said Msaddek.
She called the transfers “a form of harassment” aimed at making it harder for their Tunis-based families and lawyers to visit.
Weekly prison visits in Tunisia allow families to bring prisoners baskets of food to last them through the week.
Msaddek said some prison inmates resisted the move but were forcibly transferred.
In a letter from prison posted on social media, BelHajj denounced what he called a forced transfer “far from my family, my children, and my lawyers, in yet another attempt to break my will.”
He said he, Chebbi and Ghazi Chaouachi were “prisoners or conscience, not criminals.”
“What is happening today is a desperate attempt to silence free voices and intimidate anyone who dares to say ‘no’ to injustice and tyranny,” he wrote.
Since President Kais Saied’s power grab in July 2021, when he dissolved parliament and began ruling by decree, rights groups have warned of a sharp decline in civil liberties in the North African country.
In a video statement, Chebbi’s wife denounced the authorities’ move as “an injustice” and “abuse.”
She said she learned of the transfer during her scheduled weekly visit, and that her husband was informed just an hour before being moved.
Once a French military bunker built in 1932, Bizerte prison — Borj Erroumi — became infamous for its harsh conditions under Tunisia’s former longtime rulers Habib Bourguiba and Zine El Abidine Ben Ali.
All of the transferred prisoners were defendants in a mass trial last month that saw around 40 public figures, some staunch Saied critics, sentenced to long terms on charges including plotting against the state.
The trial drew international criticism, from France, Germany and the United Nations, which Saied dismissed as “blatant interference in Tunisia’s internal affairs.”
During a protest in Tunis demanding the release of jailed lawyer Ahmed Souab, public figures also condemned the prison transfers.
Souab had been a member of the defense team during the mass trial. He was detained on terrorism-related charges after claiming that judges were under political pressure to hand the defendants hefty sentences.
“We’re seeing a return to the old practices of the Ben Ali dictatorship which aimed at breaking the morale of political prisoners by moving them from one prison to another,” opposition figure Chaima Issa told AFP during the protest.
Also attending the rally, Chebbi’s wife said he was now detained in “inhumane” conditions after visiting him.
She said he was being held in the same room as 60 other inmates, deprived of even “basic standards of detention.”
