Has Lebanon’s Hezbollah been strengthened or weakened by the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza?

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Smoke billows above the Lebanese village of Bint Jbeil during Israeli bombardment on February 28, 2024, amid ongoing cross-border tensions between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon. (AFP)
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Smoke billows above a Lebanese village during Israeli bombardment on March 4, 2024, amid ongoing cross-border tensions between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon. (AFP)
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Smoke billows above a Lebanese village during Israeli bombardment on February 28, 2024, amid ongoing cross-border tensions between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon. (AFP)
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Updated 07 March 2024
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Has Lebanon’s Hezbollah been strengthened or weakened by the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza?

  • Lebanon is fearful tit-for-tat violence between Israel and Hezbollah could escalate into devastating conflict
  • Pressure to support Hamas in Gaza while avoiding all-out war with Israel puts Iran-backed Hezbollah in a bind

DUBAI: After a string of losses suffered by Hezbollah since the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza began on Oct. 7, Middle East analysts are increasingly asking whether the Iran-backed group has been politically and militarily weakened by the contained conflict in southern Lebanon.

Despite talk of a potential ceasefire in Gaza, there is no guarantee that Israel and Hezbollah will halt their deadly exchanges along Lebanon’s southern border. Nor would it put a stop to the suspected targeted killings of militia leaders deep inside Lebanese territory.




People inspect the site of an Israeli airstrike a day earlier in the southern Lebanese village of Odaisseh near the border with Israel on March 5, 2024. (AFP)

For Lebanon, even this relatively contained tit-for-tat between Israel and Hezbollah has been costly. Civilians living along the border have been killed while thousands have fled north over fears of an Israeli invasion.

On Monday, US envoy Amos Hochstein landed in Beirut in a bid by Washington to reduce regional tensions. His visit coincided with an attack on northern Israel, launched from Lebanon, that left an Indian worker dead and seven others wounded.




Lebanon's caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati (R) meets with US envoy Amos Hochstein in Beirut onn March 4, 2024. (REUTERS)

In a statement during the visit, Hochstein said an escalation “will not help the Lebanese or the Israelis return to their homes. There is no such thing as a limited war; a diplomatic solution is the only way out.”

To achieve “a lasting fair security arrangement between Lebanon and Israel,” Hochstein said “a temporary ceasefire is not enough” and that “a limited war is not containable.”

Security along the Blue Line, demarcated by the UN in 2000 after Israeli troops pulled out of southern Lebanon, “has to change in order to guarantee everyone’s security,” he added.




Peacekeepers from the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) patrol the border area between Lebanon and Israel on Hamames hill in the Khiyam area of southern Lebanon, on October 13, 2023. (AFP)

Some analysts believe Hezbollah has done enough to demonstrate support for Palestinians and Hamas, and therefore has nothing more to prove by dragging Lebanon into a major war with Israel.

“It will emerge much stronger and already is stronger internally, because it can claim that it has deterred an Israeli attack,” Nadim Shehadi, former head of the Middle East program at London’s Chatham House, told Arab News.

“If there is no all-out war, then Hezbollah can shut down all the critics of its arms and declare all its opponents as collaborators with the enemy, because they will claim that Hezbollah’s arms protected Lebanon and deterred an attack.

“This is, of course, getting less convincing as Israel escalates, but in the end, they will twist it in their favor.”

INNUMBERS

• 10 Israeli soldiers and reservists killed by Hezbollah and other militia attacks since Oct. 8.

• 229 Hezbollah members killed by Israel, mostly in Lebanon, but some also in Syria.

• 30 Civilians, three of whom were journalists, killed by Israeli strikes on Lebanon.

Although all sides appear keen to avoid a direct military confrontation that could lead to a major regional conflict, there has been no lull in hostilities except as part of the temporary ceasefire in November last year during the Israel-Hamas war.

Speaking on Monday, Hezbollah’s deputy chief, Naim Qassem, reiterated that the militia, which says it is acting in support of Palestinians in Gaza and Hamas, would stop its attacks on Israel once the war in the enclave ends. “Stop the assault on Gaza and war will end in the region,” he said.

However, Yoav Gallant, the Israeli defense minister, has said that there will be no let-up in Israeli operations against Hezbollah even if a Gaza ceasefire is secured.




Israel has warned that there would be no letup in its operations against the Hezbollah in Lebanon for as long as they continue to post a threat. (AFP)

Indeed, there is pressure from more hawkish elements in Israel for the government to act decisively against the Hezbollah threat on the country’s northern border. Likewise, Hezbollah is under pressure to ride to the rescue of its Hamas brethren.

There are practical reasons why Hezbollah may be keen to avoid an all-out war with Israel. The availability of weapons, finance for postwar reconstruction and the objectives of Iran could all be key considerations in Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah’s calculations.

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Through the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, “Tehran has invested billions of dollars in Hezbollah’s missiles,” Meir Javedanfar, an Israeli lecturer, author and professor of Iranian politics at Reichman University in Israel, told Arab News.

“Their job, their most important priority, is to deter Israel from attacking Iran’s nuclear installations. If Hezbollah gets involved in a war against Israel now, with all those missiles, then Iran’s nuclear program will be left badly exposed.”




Hezbollah fighters take part in a ceremony to commemorate the party's fallen leaders in the Lebanese village of Jibshit, about 50 kilometers south of the capital Beirut on Feb. 15, 2024. (AFP)

Indeed, no matter how sincere its support for the Palestinian cause, Hezbollah has an incentive to keep its powder dry so it can continue to act as a credible deterrent against a pre-emptive Israeli strike on Iran.

“Another is the fact that if there is a war, this time around Iran cannot pay to rebuild Lebanon back like it did in 2006,” said Javedanfar.

“Iran’s economy is doing terribly now and has been under sanctions since 2012. Iranians won’t be able to pay nor restock Hezbollah’s ammunition, and this will all undermine Hezbollah’s position.”




A handout picture provided by the Iranian Army media office on October 27, 2023, shows missiles being fired during a military drill in the Isfahan province in central Iran. (AFP)

Since Hezbollah began its campaign in solidarity with Hamas on Oct. 8, ostensibly to draw Israeli resources away from the Gaza Strip, Israel has launched a series of targeted drone strikes on militia commanders in Lebanon.

Hussein Yazbeck, whose precise rank in the militia is unknown, was killed on Jan. 3. Wissam Hassan Al-Tawil, a commander in Hezbollah’s elite Radwan Force, was assassinated on Jan. 8, while Ali Hussein Burji, aerial forces commander, was killed in southern Lebanon on Jan. 9.

Israel has also struck suspected IRGC and Hezbollah weapons depots and missile launch sites in Lebanon, many of which were situated in residential areas.

So far, the armed exchanges have resulted in seven civilian deaths on the Israeli side, as well as the deaths of 10 Israel Defense Force soldiers and reservists. There have also been several attacks on Israel from Syrian territory, without any injuries.

Hezbollah has named 229 members who have been killed by Israel, mostly in Lebanon, but some also in Syria. In Lebanon, another 37 operatives from other groups, a Lebanese soldier and at least 30 civilians, three of whom were journalists, have been killed.




Hezbollah militants and supporters attend the funeral of Ali al-Debs, one of the militant group's commanders killed by an Israeli air raid two days earlier, in Lebanon's southern city of Nabatieyh on February 16, 2024. (AFP)

Lebanese ministers have continued to urge restraint. “At a time where we insist on calm and call on all sides to not escalate, we find the Israeli enemy extending its aggression,” Najib Mikati, Lebanon’s caretaker prime minister, said in a statement last month.

The statement came in response to a deadly Israeli airstrike in Nabatieh, southern Lebanon, which left 10 civilians dead, including seven members of the same family and a mother and her two children. A day of mourning was called in the aftermath of the attack.

Nabih Berri, the speaker of the Lebanese parliament, condemned the “massacre,” adding that “the bloodshed in Nabatieh is on the hands of the international envoys, the UN and human rights organizations” for failing to act to reduce tensions.

Hezbollah, meanwhile, vowed to retaliate for the attack. “The enemy will pay the price for these crimes,” Hassan Fadlallah, a senior Hezbollah official, said in a statement.




Hezbollah supreme leader Hassan Nasrallah is seen on large television screen in Beirut as he delivers a televised address amid the ongoing battles between Israel and the Palestinian group Hamas. (AFP)

Soon after, a barrage of rockets was fired toward a military base in Safed in northern Israel, killing Israeli army Staff Sgt. Omer Sarah Benjo.

Although Hezbollah may have strengthened its position politically in Lebanon, while preserving its strategic advantage on behalf of Iran, there are some who will view the militia’s restraint as a sign of weakness at a time when its Palestinian allies were most in need.

“We don’t want war, but if they (the Israelis) attack us we’ll be sure to attack them back,” Ali Chedid, a resident of Dahiyeh, a predominantly Shiite suburb of Beirut and Hezbollah stronghold, told Arab News.




People inspect the damage caused by Israeli bombardment on Hezbollah targets along Israel's. borders with Lebanon. (AFP)

“Hezbollah has been doing a great job of showing restraint so far. It is not a matter of not having enough weaponry or funding to launch a war. Rather it is because we know if we set out to destroy Israel, we also will be destroyed in the process. We never claimed we would remain unscathed.”

For Chedid, the war in Gaza has put Hezbollah in an impossible fix that will be hard for its leaders to navigate if they hope to avoid, at the very least, tarnishing their reputation as champions of the Palestinian cause and the main bulwark against Israel.

“Hezbollah is damned if it attacks because then people will claim it is dragging the country into war for its own interests,” said Chedid. “It is also damned if it doesn’t because it will be accused of being all smoke and mirrors and having left Gazans to suffer alone.”

 


Jordan’s crown prince meets Bahrain, Kurdistan leaders in Davos

Updated 23 January 2025
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Jordan’s crown prince meets Bahrain, Kurdistan leaders in Davos

  • Crown Prince Hussein seeks to boost cooperation in the region
  • Joins session on artificial intelligence, global skills development

DUBAI: Representing King Abdullah at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Crown Prince Hussein bin Abdullah held meetings recently with regional leaders to reinforce Jordan’s commitment to fostering cooperation and addressing pressing challenges in the region.

The crown prince met with Sheikh Isa bin Salman Al-Khalifa, head of Bahrain’s delegation, to discuss ties between the two nations, according to reports.

Their talks focused on enhancing economic and technological cooperation and advancing training programs to help young people prepare for the workplace.

In addition, they reviewed regional developments, stressing the importance of sustaining the Gaza ceasefire and ensuring the delivery of humanitarian aid.

In a separate meeting with Kurdistan Regional Government Prime Minister Masrour Barzani, the discussions focused on relations between Jordan and Iraq.

The officials also spoke about boosting collaboration, especially in economic and technology fields, and addressing key regional issues.

The crown prince also participated in a session on enhancing the skills and productivity of people in the age of artificial intelligence.

The session addressed the WEF’s 2020 initiative to train 1 billion people globally by 2030, which is aimed at closing skill gaps and preparing workers for rapid technological advancements.

The participants at the 55th WEF, held under the theme “Cooperation for the Smart Age,” include heads of state, global CEOs and entrepreneurs, who have gathered to discuss strategies for growth, investing in people, and managing challenges in the energy sector and beyond.

The crown prince was accompanied by Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs and Expatriates Ayman Safadi, Jordan’s Ambassador to Switzerland Nawaf Al-Tal, and Director of the Office of the Crown Prince Dr. Zaid Al-Baqain.


Hundreds leave West Bank camp during Israeli raid: Palestinian official

Updated 23 January 2025
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Hundreds leave West Bank camp during Israeli raid: Palestinian official

  • The Israeli military launched an operation in Jenin on Tuesday, saying it aims to uproot Palestinian militants in the camp and the city.

Jenin: A Palestinian official said hundreds of residents of the occupied West Bank’s Jenin refugee camp were leaving their homes Thursday, days into a large-scale Israeli raid in the area.
“Hundreds of camp residents have begun leaving after the Israeli army, using loudspeakers on drones and military vehicles, ordered them to evacuate the camp,” where Israel’s military launched an intense military operation this week, Jenin governor Kamal Abu Al-Rub told AFP.
The army told AFP that it was “unaware of any evacuation orders for residents in Jenin as of now.”
Salim Saadi, a Jenin resident who lives on the edge of the refugee camp, told AFP that the army had asked camp residents to leave between 9:00 am (0700 GMT) and 5:00 pm.
“There are dozens of camp residents who have begun to leave,” he said.
“The army is in front of my house. They could enter at any moment.”
The Israeli military launched an operation in Jenin on Tuesday, saying it aims to uproot Palestinian militants in the camp and the city.
The offensive began just days after a ceasefire deal paused fighting in the Gaza Strip.
The Israeli assault has killed at least 10 Palestinians and injured 40 more, according to the Ramallah-based Palestinian health ministry.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that “Operation Iron Wall,” as it has been dubbed, will “eradicate terrorism” in the West Bank city known as a bastion of Palestinian militancy.


Israeli army says killed two Palestinian militants in West Bank

Updated 23 January 2025
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Israeli army says killed two Palestinian militants in West Bank

  • The Ramallah-based Palestinian health ministry said Israeli authorities had informed it of the deaths of Nazzal, 25, and Shalabi, 30

Ramallah: The Israeli military said Thursday it killed two Palestinian militants overnight near the occupied West Bank city of Jenin, where a large-scale raid is underway, accusing them of murdering three Israelis.
In a statement, the military said that Israeli forces found the two militants barricaded in a house in the village of Burqin.
“After an exchange of fire, they were eliminated by the forces,” it said, adding one soldier was injured in the exchange.
The military identified those killed as Mohammed Nazzal and Qutaiba Shalabi, accusing them of being “affiliated with Islamic Jihad” and responsible for a deadly shooting on an Israeli bus in early January.
The Ramallah-based Palestinian health ministry said Israeli authorities had informed it of the deaths of Nazzal, 25, and Shalabi, 30.
“The bodies are being withheld” by the army, it added in a statement.
Three Israelis were killed and six injured in a January 6 attack near the village of Al-Funduq, also in the West Bank.
Israel’s Defense Minister Israel Katz said at the time he had directed the military to “act with force” to find the attackers, vowing on X that “anyone who... enables or supports the murder and harm of Jews will pay a heavy price.”
The night that followed the attack saw several instances of violent altercations with settlers in that part of the West Bank, including in the village of Hajja, whose mayor told AFP it had come under attack.
Violence has surged throughout the occupied West Bank since the Gaza war erupted on October 7, 2023.
According to the Palestinian health ministry, Israeli troops or settlers have killed at least 850 Palestinians in the West Bank since the conflict began.
During the same period, at least 29 Israelis, including soldiers, have been killed in Palestinian attacks or Israeli military operations in the territory, according to Israeli official figures.


Saudi Arabia condemns Israeli attack on West Bank’s Jenin

Updated 23 January 2025
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Saudi Arabia condemns Israeli attack on West Bank’s Jenin

  • Gunfire, explosions rocked Jenin on Wednesday as Israeli military kept up large-scale raid for second day
  • The operation, launched just days after a ceasefire in Gaza, has left at least 10 Palestinians dead

RIYADH: Saudi Arabia has condemned Israeli forces’ attack in the occupied West Bank’s Jenin area, the Saudi Press Agency said early Thursday.

Gunfire and explosions rocked Jenin on Wednesday, an AFP journalist reported, as the Israeli military kept up a large-scale raid for a second day.

The operation, launched just days after a ceasefire paused more than a year of fighting in Gaza, has left at least 10 Palestinians dead, according to Palestinian health authorities.

Israeli officials have said the raid is part of a broader campaign against militants in the West Bank, citing thousands of attack attempts since the Gaza war erupted in October 2023.

“The Kingdom renews its demand for the international community to assume its responsibilities towards halting Israeli violations of relevant international laws and treaties,” a Saudi foreign ministry statement read.

Saudi Arabia warned that the continuation of these violations might cause the fighting and chaos to return to occupied Palestinian territories, thus risking the security and safety of civilians and undermining chances of peace in the region.


Southern forces loom large as Syria’s new rulers try to form a national army

Updated 23 January 2025
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Southern forces loom large as Syria’s new rulers try to form a national army

  • When the HTS-led opposition groups based in the north launched their surprise offensive last year in Aleppo, factions in the southern provinces of Daraa, Sweida and Quneitra reactivated, forming a joint operations room to coordinate with northern ones

NAWA, Syria: As opposition forces raced across Syria in a surprise offensive launched in the country’s northwest late last year, officials from several countries backing either the rebels or Syria’s government met in Qatar on what to do.
According to people briefed on the Dec. 7 meeting, officials from Turkiye, Russia, Iran and a handful of Arab countries agreed that the fighters would stop their advance in Homs, the last major city north of Damascus, and that internationally mediated talks would take place with Syrian leader Bashar Assad on a political transition.
But opposition factions from Syria’s south had other plans. They pushed toward the capital, arriving in Damascus’ largest square before dawn. Those from the north, led by the Islamist group Hayyat Tahrir Al-Sham, arrived hours later. Assad, meanwhile, had fled.
HTS, the most organized of the groups, has since established itself as Syria’s de facto rulers after coordinating with the southern fighters during the lighting-fast offensive.
Wariness among the southern factions since then, however, has highlighted questions over how the interim administration can bring together a patchwork of former rebel groups, each with their own leaders and ideology.
HTS leader Ahmad Al-Sharaa has called for a unified national army and security forces. The interim defense minister, Murhaf Abu Qasra, has begun meeting with armed groups. But some prominent leaders like southern rebel commander Ahmad Al-Awda have refused to attend.
Officials with the interim government did not respond to questions.
 

A handout picture released by Sham News Network shows an anti-regime demonstration in the early hours of April 15, 2012 in the southern city of Daraa, where the uprising against President Bashar al-Assad began in March 2011. (AFP)

Cradle of the revolution
The southern province of Daraa is widely seen as the cradle of the Syrian uprising in 2011. When anti-government protests were met with repression by Assad’s security forces, “we were forced to carry weapons,” said Mahmoud Al-Bardan, a rebel leader there.
The opposition groups that formed in the south had different dynamics from those in the north, less Islamist and more localized, said Aron Lund, a fellow with the Century International think tank. They also had different backers.
“In the north, Turkiye and Qatar favored Islamist factions very heavily,” he said. “In the south, Jordanian and American involvement nudged the insurgency in a different direction.”
In 2018, factions in Daraa reached a Russian-mediated “reconciliation agreement” with Assad’s government. Some former fighters left for Idlib, the destination for many from areas recaptured by government forces, while others remained.
The deal left many southern factions alive and armed, Lund said.
“We only turned over the heavy weapons … the light weapons remained with us,” Al-Bardan said.
When the HTS-led opposition groups based in the north launched their surprise offensive last year in Aleppo, those weapons were put to use again. Factions in the southern provinces of Daraa, Sweida and Quneitra reactivated, forming a joint operations room to coordinate with northern ones.
Defying international wishes
On Dec. 7, “we had heard from a number of parties that there might be an agreement that … no one would enter Damascus so there could be an agreement on the exit of Bashar Assad or a transitional phase,” said Nassim Abu Ara, an official with one of the largest rebel factions in the south, the 8th Brigade of Al-Awda.
However, “we entered Damascus and turned the tables on these agreements,” he said.

Nassim Abu Ara, known as Abu Murshid, a rebel leader, poses for a portrait during an interview with the Associated Press, in Nawa, near Daraa, Syria, on Jan. 4, 2025. (AP)

Al-Bardan confirmed that account, asserting that the agreement “was binding on the northern factions” but not the southern ones.
“Even if they had ordered us to stop, we would not have,” he said, reflecting the eagerness among many fighters to remove Assad as soon as possible.
Ammar Kahf, executive director of the Istanbul-based Omran Center for Strategic Studies, who was in Doha on Dec. 7 and was briefed on the meetings, said there was an agreement among countries’ officials that the rebels would stop their offensive in Homs and go to Geneva for negotiations on “transitional arrangements.”
But Kahf said it was not clear that any Syrian faction, including HTS, agreed to the plan. Representatives of countries at the meeting did not respond to questions.
A statement released by the foreign ministers of Turkiye, Russia, Iran, Qatari, Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Iraq after the Dec. 7 meeting said they “stressed the need to stop military operations in preparation for launching a comprehensive political process” but did not give specifics.
The initial hours after armed groups’ arrival in Damascus were chaotic. Observers said the HTS-led forces tried to re-impose order when they arrived. An Associated Press journalist saw an argument break out when HTS fighters tried to stop members of another faction from taking abandoned army munitions.
Abu Ara acknowledged that “there was some chaos” but added, “we have to understand that these people were pent-up and suddenly they achieved the joy of victory in this manner.”
 

A member of the new Syrian security forces checks ammunition that belonged to the Assad government, in Nawa, near Daraa, Syria, on Jan. 4, 2025. (AP)

Waiting for a state
During a visit by AP journalists to the western countryside of Daraa province this month, there was no visible presence of HTS forces.
At one former Syrian army site, a fighter with the Free Syrian Army, the main faction in the area, stood guard in jeans and a camouflage shirt. Other local fighters showed off a site where they were storing tanks abandoned by the former army.
“Currently these are the property of the new state and army,” whenever it is formed, said one fighter, Issa Sabaq.
The process of forming those has been bumpy.
On New Year’s Eve, factions in the Druze-majority city of Sweida in southern Syria blocked the entry of a convoy of HTS security forces who had arrived without giving prior notice.
Ahmed Aba Zeid, a Syrian researcher who has studied the southern insurgent groups, said some of the factions have taken a wait-and-see approach before they agree to dissolve and hand over their weapons to the state.
Local armed factions are still the de facto security forces in many areas.

Members of the new Syrian security forces stand outside a security building, in Nawa, near Daraa, Syria, on Jan. 4, 2025. (AP)

Earlier this month, the new police chief in Daraa city appointed by the HTS-led government, Badr Abdel Hamid, joined local officials in the town of Nawa to discuss plans for a police force there.
Hamid said there had been “constructive and positive cooperation” with factions in the region, adding the process of extending the “state’s influence” takes time.
Abu Ara said factions are waiting to understand their role. “Will it be a strong army, or a border guard army, or is it for counterterrorism?” he asked.
Still, he was optimistic that an understanding will be reached.
“A lot of people are afraid that there will be a confrontation, that there won’t be integration or won’t be an agreement,” he said. “But we want to avoid this at all costs, because our country is very tired of war.”