US-China relations and their impact on Pakistan
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The US elections are probably the most consequential political event at the global level. These are watched with great interest both by its allies as well as by rival nations. This is because even though US economic policies, political ethos and strategic direction has considerable consistency, the President’s preferences and priorities play a significant role in shaping both foreign and domestic policies.
With former President Donald Trump likely to be the Republican candidate against incumbent Democrat President Joe Biden, the race is predicted to be close. Irrespective of who is elected in the US, it is China that will remain central with policies geared toward curbing its rise through deliberate economic and strategic measures. This policy is already in vogue, and a clear demonstration of it is visible in the cutting back on exports of strategic materials. A deliberate attempt by the US to reduce imports from China through the domestic development of technologies and infrastructure and where feasible, diverting trade to Europe and other countries is in essence the policy that is being pursued. To implement this policy is not going to be easy, as Europe has limited capacity of absorbing additional US imports or export products, especially at prices compatible with China’s. The global impact of tensions between China and the US and the subsequent slow-down of major economies will hit developing countries the most. India however, may not be seriously affected as the US will facilitate its technological and industrial development so that it may be a competitor to China in the region. Besides, PM Modi, despite his prejudices and questionable politics, has been very successful in developing the country’s economy. He is taking full advantage of India’s relations with the US while also maintaining strong trade and commercial ties with China.
For over half a century, China has been Pakistan’s main source of military hard and software. There is a mutual convergence of interest between the two countries. China considers Pakistan an important strategic ally in South Asia and for Pakistan, strong relations with China serve its economic and strategic interests.
For over half a century, China has been Pakistan’s main source of military hard and software. There is a mutual convergence of interest between the two countries.
- Talat Masood
Pakistan’s relations with the US on the other hand, have been a roller coaster ride. There were periods of close cooperation followed by times when sanctions were applied when strategic and political interests were in conflict. Lately, the US has been showing interest in promoting trade and commerce and engaging with Pakistan at the political level. Apparently, it feels that by improving relations, it can prevent Pakistan from leaning heavily on China and also contribute in moving India and Pakistan toward the normalization of relations. In that event India could focus more on building its economic and strategic strength and be able to pose as a potent challenger to China at the regional level.
There have been periods when the US has made earnest efforts to improve relations with China. President Obama hosted President Xi for an informal summit at Sunnylands Estate in California to build a personal rapport with him. Both agreed to ease tensions in US -China relations and to cooperate on pressing bilateral, regional and global issues. With President Trump’s stint in power, the goodwill took a significant turn toward the worse.
As it stands now, in essence, China is perceived as the main potential challenger to US economic and strategic global supremacy. This will have major repercussions on the world, and especially within China’s neighborhood. Pakistan will have to walk a diplomatic and strategic tight-rope between the two giants. However, of late, there has been a realization on the part of the US that relations with China must improve. Talks were initiated in November 2021 for a collaborative approach on reducing the impacts of climate change. More significantly, President Biden and President Xi discussed “guard rails on how to avoid conflict.” But it is clear that without regular engagement and normalization between Beijing and Washington, countries like Pakistan in China’s immediate region will have to walk a thin and unpredictable line until US foreign policy becomes clearer post the upcoming American election.
- Talat Masood is a retired Lieutenant General from Pakistan Army and an eminent scholar on national security and political issues. E-mail: [email protected]
