Pakistan stocks close bearish as diminished policy rate cut hopes outweigh easing inflation

Stock brokers monitor share prices displayed on a digital screen during a trading session at the Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) in Karachi on February 12, 2024. (AFP/File)
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Updated 15 March 2024
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Pakistan stocks close bearish as diminished policy rate cut hopes outweigh easing inflation

  • Monetary policy surveys show a majority of people expect the policy rate to remain unchanged at 22 percent
  • The benchmark KSE100 index also lost its value by 1.5 percent on a week-on-week basis due to profit taking

KARACHI: Pakistan’s equities ended the weekend trading session on a bearish note, as investor hopes for an interest rate cut in the upcoming monetary policy diminished, despite easing inflationary pressures, according to equity analysts.

Trading at the bourse remained subdued throughout the week, except for Thursday, when the benchmark KSE100 index surged by 1,015 points. This was triggered by the commencement of talks between the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and Pakistani authorities for the final review of the $3 billion bailout program.

On Friday, the KSE 100 index shed 247 points, closing at 64,816, which marked a 1.5 percent week-on-week decline, primarily due to the anticipated maintenance of the current interest rate and profit-taking.

“Uncertainty surrounding the outcome of the Pakistan-IMF review talks, coupled with expectations of a status quo in the upcoming monetary policy announcement, and the weekly inflation surge to 32.89 percent year-on-year, acted as catalysts for the bearish close on Friday,” Ahsan Mehanti, CEO of Arif Habib Corporation, commented.

Pakistan’s central bank is slated to meet on Monday to review the policy rate, which has been held steady at 22 percent across the last five consecutive monetary policy committee meetings. Investors are hopeful for some policy easing after inflation in February 2024 dipped to 23.1 percent from January’s 28.3 percent and February 2023’s 31.5 percent.

“Investors were optimistic that the central bank might soften its monetary stance, but surveys conducted by financial firms indicate that the majority of participants expect the status quo to be maintained,” Abdul Azeem, Head of Research at Spectrum Securities, said.

A survey by Topline Securities revealed that 55 percent of participants expect the policy rate to remain at 22 percent, while the remaining 45 percent predict a policy rate reduction. Of those anticipating a cut, 2 percent predict a decrease of 25 basis points (bps), 10 percent foresee a 50bps reduction, 24 percent expect a 100bps cut and 9 percent believe it will decrease by more than 100bps.

Additionally, a recent survey by the CFA Society Pakistan, affiliated with a global association of investment professionals, indicated that 67.3 percent of participants do not anticipate any change in the policy rate.“We believe the central bank will remain cautious and adopt a watch-and-see approach until the inflation trend continues to fall,” said Muhammad Sohail, CEO of Topline Securities.

He highlighted key risks to the inflation trajectory, including delays in the release of IMF funds, the IMF demanding additional tax measures to meet revenue targets in case of any shortfall and pressure on the dollar against the rupee, primarily due to delays in receiving dollar inflows.

The IMF mission in Pakistan is currently reviewing the quarterly performance of the country’s economic indicators under the $3 billion bailout program, with the majority of Pakistani analysts optimistic about a smooth review process.

“The review for the third and final tranche of the Standby Agreement is expected to go very smoothly,” said Dr. Sajid Amin, deputy executive director at the Sustainable Development Policy Institute (SDPI) in Islamabad, noting both parties are satisfied with the progress on the review targets.

The successful completion of the program will pave the way for the disbursement of the remaining $1.1 billion and will provide an opportunity to lay the groundwork for a new and extended IMF program.

“The country urgently needs a new IMF program to manage external financing needs and economic recovery,” Amin added. “It is encouraging to see that the new government has a clear approach, unlike the previous two instances where engagements with the IMF were delayed due to political issues.”

Pakistani financial analysts believe that a larger IMF program would boost investor confidence, potentially leading the stock market to reach new heights.

“The stock market is expected to scale new highs if the IMF agrees to an $8-9 billion program,” said Tahir Abbas, Head of Research at Arif Habib Limited.

He expected the key stock index, KSE100, might reach the 100,000 mark with the longer-term IMF program.


PM hails Pakistan for ‘unstoppable, unbeatable’ performance in South Africa ODI series

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PM hails Pakistan for ‘unstoppable, unbeatable’ performance in South Africa ODI series

  • Green Shirts thrashed South Africa 3-0 after losing Twenty20 series 2-0
  • Pakistan will now play three Tests against South Africa later this month

ISLAMABAD: Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif on Monday praised the Pakistan cricket team for winning a three-match One Day International (ODI) series against South Africa, describing their performance as “unstoppable and unbeatable.”

The Green Shirts completed a series clean sweep over South Africa in the third ODI at the Wanderers Stadium on Sunday, with rising star Saim Ayub smashing his second century of the series and his third from five innings.

The left-handed opening batsman made a sparkling 101 off 94 balls in a Pakistan total of 308 for nine. Heinrich Klaasen thrashed 81 off 43 balls for South Africa, but the hosts were beaten by 36 runs chasing an adjusted target of 308 because of rain.

“Unstoppable and unbeatable!” Sharif remarked in a post on X. “Congratulations to Team Pakistan on an outstanding 3-0 ODI series victory against South Africa.”

The prime minister also praised the Pakistan Cricket Board chairman for the team’s performance.

“Well done, boys! Your determination, skill, and teamwork under the leadership of the PCB Chairman Syed Mohsin Raza Naqvi have made the entire nation proud,” he said.

“Keep raising the green flag high!“

South Africa won the T20I series 2-0 after the third match was washed out on Dec. 14. The ODI series win comes ahead of the upcoming International Cricket Council (ICC) Champions Trophy, which Pakistan will hosting in February and March 2025.

Pakistan will also play three Tests against South Africa later this month.


Government opens long-awaited talks with Imran Khan’s party amid deepening polarization

Updated 3 min 39 sec ago
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Government opens long-awaited talks with Imran Khan’s party amid deepening polarization

  • Negotiations began after Khan threatened civil disobedience, seeking release of political prisoners
  • The government formed a negotiating committee a day earlier to engage with Khan’s PTI team

ISLAMABAD: The government and the opposition Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) of former Prime Minister Imran Khan on Monday began long-awaited negotiations to resolve issues fueling political polarization and straining the country’s fragile economy, National Assembly Speaker Ayaz Sadiq confirmed.

The government announced the formation of a committee a day earlier to hold talks with PTI. This followed ex-premier Khan’s threat to launch civil disobedience by urging overseas Pakistanis, his party’s key support base, to halt remittances if his demands, including the release of political prisoners, were not met by Dec. 22.

Khan, who has been imprisoned for over a year on charges he claims are politically motivated, has also called for judicial commissions to investigate violent protests on May 9 last year and Nov. 26 this year, which the government says involved his party supporters.

Known for taking hard-line political positions, Khan formed a seven-member committee to negotiate with the government. This was done amid growing concerns he may face trial by the military for allegedly inciting attacks on sensitive security installations during violent protests following his brief detention last year in a graft case.

“We will talk about Pakistan’s interests instead of our own,” the National Assembly speaker said while addressing the initial round of talks. “We will try to sit and discuss matters for the sake of Pakistan.”

“The solution to every problem is through talks,” he added. “We implied a democratic way and talks are being held in the parliament only.”

The government’s committee includes key figures from the ruling Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N), such as Deputy Prime Minister Ishaq Dar, Political Adviser Rana Sanaullah and Senator Irfan Siddiqui, alongside representatives from allied parties.

The PTI team has Khan’s loyal lieutenant Asad Qaiser, Sunni Ittehad Council Chairman Sahibzada Hamid Raza and Majlis Wehdat-i-Muslimeen’s Senator Raja Nasir Abbas.

Sadiq said the seriousness of purpose on both sides was reflected by the seniority of the people representing them.

He informed that a second meeting would follow the deliberations in the initial one.

The negotiations come days after Pakistan’s military announced prison sentences for 25 people involved in the May 9, 2023, protests, which PTI has demanded be investigated. The military said it had gathered “irrefutable evidence” against those prosecuted and reiterated its commitment to bringing the planners of the violence to justice.

The country has remained gripped by political unrest and uncertainty since Khan’s ouster from power through a parliamentary no-confidence vote, which has also exacerbated Pakistan’s economic hardships.

Senior government representatives have recently acknowledged that negotiations could offer a pathway out of the current political impasse. However, they have cautioned that it is too early to determine which of PTI’s demands might be addressed.


Ancient winter festival in Pakistan’s Chitral concludes with rituals, traditional dance

Updated 19 min 48 sec ago
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Ancient winter festival in Pakistan’s Chitral concludes with rituals, traditional dance

  • Chawmos festival is celebrated in December by the Kalash people, who are numbered around 4,000
  • Festival marks welcoming of new year, celebrated with dance, animal sacrifice, singing and feasting

PESHAWAR: A religious winter festival celebrated by the Kalash people in the northwestern Pakistani district of Chitral has concluded after featuring rituals, traditional dance and other festivities for two weeks, provincial tourism authority said on Monday.

The Kalash are a group of about 4,000 people, possibly Pakistan’s smallest minority, who live in the mountains of the Hindu Kush, where they practice an ancient polytheistic faith.

They come together each year in December to celebrate the two-week Chawmos festival after the community finishes fieldwork and stores cheese, fruit, vegetables and grains for the year.

The festival features various rituals, animal sacrifice, dance, songs and feasting, preserving the Kalash culture and attracting a number of tourists to Pakistan’s Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.

“The religious Chawmos festival of the ancient Kalash Valley has concluded,” Mohammad Saad, a spokesperson for the KP Tourism Authority, said in a statement.

“The festival continued from Dec. 8 in the three valleys of Bumburet, Birir and Rumbur.”

The picture shared by the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Culture and Tourism Authority on December 23, 2024, shows men wearing animal masks participate in the two-week Chawmos festival in the northwestern Pakistani district of Chitral. (kptourism/Facebook)

The Kalash community’s religion incorporates animiztic traditions of worshipping nature as well as a pantheon of gods, and its people live mainly in the three Kalash valleys of Bumburet, Birir and Rumbur.

The Chawmos festival is celebrated to welcome the new year, with the Kalash people indulging in religious practices and distributing vegetables and fruit among each other, according to the official.

The picture shared by the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Culture and Tourism Authority on December 23, 2024, shows a man applying henna at the Chawmos festival in the northwestern Pakistani district of Chitral. (kptourism/Facebook)

The festival was attended by a large number of domestic and foreign tourists who were fully facilitated by the provincial tourism authority.

The picture shared by the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Culture and Tourism Authority on December 23, 2024, shows Kalash tribespeople and tourists participate in the two-week Chawmos festival in the northwestern Pakistani district of Chitral. (kptourism/Facebook)

 


Pakistan defense minister blames judiciary for delayed verdicts in May 9 cases

Updated 23 December 2024
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Pakistan defense minister blames judiciary for delayed verdicts in May 9 cases

  • National problems require decisions at the earliest, says Khawaja Asif while talking to media in London
  • Protests erupted in several Pakistani cities on May 9, 2023, over ex-PM Imran Khan’s arrest in a graft case

ISLAMABAD: Pakistan’s Defense Minister Khawaja Asif on Sunday blamed the judiciary for delaying verdicts in the May 9, 2023, cases, which have so far led to the conviction of 25 supporters of former Prime Minister Imran Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party for attacking government buildings and military properties last year.

On Dec. 21, the Pakistan Army sentenced 25 people for participating in the violent protests that erupted in several Pakistani cities following Khan’s brief detention on corruption charges, resulting in damage to major military facilities and martyrs’ monuments in the country.

However, several suspects are also facing legal charges in anti-terrorism courts, with the military hoping for early verdicts in their cases, according to a statement announcing the sentencing of the 25 individuals, which described the rioting as “politically provoked violence.”

The PTI has denied any involvement in the violence, describing the May 9 incident as a “false flag” operation aimed at crushing the party.

“The judiciary created the biggest hurdle in this [the conviction of May 9 suspects] while this thing was allowed to linger for one and a half years,” Asif said while speaking to the media in London, the city he is currently visiting.

Describing the May 9 protests as a national problem, he said all the cases related to it required verdicts at the earliest.

The conviction of the 25 individuals followed a ruling by a seven-member Constitutional Bench of the Supreme Court of Pakistan on Dec. 13, allowing military courts to share their verdicts. Prior to that, the court had unanimously declared last year that prosecuting civilians in military courts violated the Constitution.

Khan’s PTI party rejected the military’s announcement, with opposition leader Omar Ayub Khan saying they were “against the principles of justice.”

The sentencing of the 25 individuals also raises concerns about Khan, who faces charges of inciting attacks against the armed forces and may potentially be tried in a military court.

Earlier, Asif had regretted the delay in announcing the verdicts, saying that it “raised the morale of the accused and their facilitators.”

“Right now, only the workers, who were used [to generate violence], have been punished under the law,” he had said. “This will not end until the ones, who planned this terrible day, are not brought before the law.”


Pakistan PM reviews security situation amid rising militancy, sectarian clashes

Updated 23 December 2024
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Pakistan PM reviews security situation amid rising militancy, sectarian clashes

  • PM Sharif was briefed by Mohsin Naqvi who recently attended a security meeting in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa
  • Security remained a concern for Pakistan this year, which witnessed renewed attacks on Chinese nationals

ISLAMABAD: Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif evaluated the security situation during a meeting with Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi in the eastern Pakistani city of Lahore on Sunday, focusing on measures taken by the authorities to ensure peace across the country.

The talks come days after Naqvi attended a high-level security meeting in the volatile Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province, which borders Afghanistan and has seen a surge in cross-border militant attacks.

The region’s Kurram district has been gripped by sectarian clashes since last month, leaving well over 100 people dead, according to local reports.

During the meeting in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Naqvi and other stakeholders decided to enhance the capacity of law enforcement agencies with the federal government’s full cooperation to combat mounting security challenges.

Pakistan has also faced unrest in its southwestern province of Balochistan, where separatist attacks intensified throughout the year.

“Federal Interior Minister Syed Mohsin Raza Naqvi provided a detailed briefing to Prime Minister Muhammad Shehbaz Sharif on the overall security situation in the country,” the statement from the PM Office said. “The Prime Minister expressed satisfaction with the measures taken to ensure law and order in the country.”

The meeting also included discussions on the country’s political situation, the statement added.

Security remained a major concern for the government this year, which witnessed renewed attacks on Chinese workers, including five fatalities when their convoy was targeted by an explosive-laden vehicle near Besham city in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.

Later in October, two Chinese engineers lost their lives in a blast near Karachi airport.

On Sunday, Pakistan’s army chief, General Asim Munir, vowed to hunt down militants and their facilitators, following a deadly attack on a military outpost in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa that left 16 soldiers dead.