Are Pakistan’s ties with Afghanistan irreversibly broken?

Airstrikes inside Afghanistan by Pakistan air force jets this week have caused deep concern and anxiety in the entire region. Bilateral relations were strained before the attacks on the eastern provinces of Khost and Paktika, but a new dimension has been added to the worsening relations between the two neighbors now.

The targets were alleged safe heavens of the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), a militant outfit accused of being involved in a number of attacks inside Pakistan. The TTP as a matter of fact is only operating with volunteers and has lost many of its commanders. But it still has the capability of hitting targets even with the ever dwindling human and material resources it has at its disposal. 

The Afghan Taliban argue that they have no connection with the attacks and that they would not deliberately allow or encourage any outfit to launch strikes against Pakistan using their territory. They claim that upon their seizure of power two years ago, the police and the army disintegrated. The Taliban volunteers— untrained and poorly equipped are now guarding the mountainous border. 

To push Kabul into such a move-- the blame would lie with those who have shown such little vision in formulating bilateral policies in Pakistan.

- Rustam Shah Mohmand

But the impression in Islamabad is that there is not enough care or concern within Afghan Taliban ranks in preventing such attacks in Pakistan. This issue however, could have been resolved by constructive engagement. That has not happened because there has been political instability in Pakistan over the last two years with governments paying little attention to relations with regional countries. The lack of engagement has given rise to deep suspicions both in Kabul and Islamabad. An issue that merited more attention of top policy makers was repeatedly ignored.

This week’s attacks will deepen the mistrust on both sides. Kabul is already formulating a new strategic path to stability and growth by building relations with the countries of Central Asia and notably with Iran and India. Ties with Tehran are improving and trade is increasing. Recently, a delegation from India visited Kabul and held talks with the Taliban on a number of projects and sectors in which India could be involved. Access to Central Asia by using Afghan territory is an attractive idea for Delhi. 

Afghanistan’s added lure, is that it sits on reportedly more than $1.5 trillion worth of minerals. These include oil, gas, lithium, coal and precious metals like gold. India with its manpower and technology could provide vital assistance in exploring and exploiting such hidden wealth. 

There is clearly a lack of vision in crafting policies in vital areas of national interest in Pakistan. There is an emphasis on short-term measures with no consideration of the costs of such measures. Fast on the heels of the air strikes comes the announcement of more Afghan refugees to be deported to Afghanistan. About 800,000 refugees who lived in Pakistan for decades were forcibly pushed into Afghanistan over the last few months causing uproar in that country. Most of them had never even seen their country of origin. 

Now a new operation is being planned that would result in the forced expulsion of hundreds of thousands more refugees. The fresh exodus will cause alarm in a country that is internationally isolated and where poverty is forcing millions to seek shelter in other countries. To burden such a country with handling ever more displaced families and providing them with shelter, food, water and medicines is a herculean task for a government that lacks the resources and where there is no foreign aid.

A stage has come where any further error of judgment could mar relations between Afghanistan and Pakistan permanently-- with little hope of recovery. It is time the gravity of the issue is realized and urgent steps taken to reign in the deterioration in relations with an important neighbor. If Afghanistan is forced to seek help from India and launches commercial and other projects with Indian involvement, it would rightfully cause deep anxiety in Islamabad. But to push Kabul into such a move-- the blame would lie with those who have shown such little vision in formulating bilateral policies in Pakistan.

- Rustam Shah Mohmand is a specialist of Afghanistan and Central Asian Affairs. He has served as Pakistan’s ambassador to Afghanistan and also held position of Chief Commissioner Refugees for a decade.