Pakistan’s new government must tread cautious path dealing with cross-border militancy

There was a virtual sense of jubilation among those in power in Islamabad when the Taliban returned to power after the end of America’s longest war in Afghanistan in August 2021. There was a strong view that a friendly government would help secure peace in the country’s long troubled western borders. 

But the euphoria soon vanished with the return of militant violence in the country, with its roots across the border presenting the most serious threat to national security. Rising tensions between the two countries have now turned Pakistan’s western border hot. It has gone well beyond the war of words. 

The latest air strikes by Pakistan targeting militant sanctuaries across the border and retaliatory artillery fires by Afghan Taliban forces have turned the situation extremely volatile. Escalating tension with the Taliban regime presents the biggest national security and foreign policy challenge for the newly installed government in Islamabad that is still to find its feet on the ground amid political instability. 

Pakistan seems to be losing patience with the Kabul regime, refusing to take action against the outlawed Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) which is blamed for the terror attacks. According to Pakistani officials 5000 to 6000 TTP fighters are based in Afghanistan. Last week, Pakistan conducted air strikes in the Afghan border provinces of Paktika and Khost after a terror attack on a security checkpost in North Waziristan killed seven soldiers and officers. 

It was the most lethal militant attack on security forces in recent months. Pakistan has lost more than 300 security personnel to TTP attacks in the past two years since the return of Afghan rule in Afghanistan. The latest uptick in terror attacks is alarming and it is evident that the militants are much more organized and better armed. 

Escalating tension with the Taliban regime presents the biggest national security and foreign policy challenge for the newly installed government in Islamabad.

Zahid Hussain

Pakistan has carried out cross-border air strikes in the past too but never acknowledged them. It was the first time Islamabad went public on the action. It was seen as a warning to the Afghan regime that Pakistan would not hesitate to take the battle across the border if the Kabul regime did not act against militant sanctuaries on Afghan soil.

Pakistan’s frustration seems to have increased as there is no indication yet that the Afghan Taliban regime would be willing to take on the TTP, many of who had fought alongside them against US forces. In fact, the tenor of the Kabul regime has toughened after the air strike. In a statement the Afghan defense minister said that his country would defend its national sovereignty with force. 

While a tense calm prevails on the borders now, the situation could flare up anytime with continuing cross border militant attacks taking a huge toll on Pakistani security forces. Two more soldiers were killed in a suicide attack on a military convoy in the north western district of Dera Ismail Khan, days after Pakistan’s airstrikes against militant sanctuaries across the border.

While there is no denying that Pakistan needs to keep up pressure on the Taliban regime, there is also a limit to the military option. There is a danger that cross border military actions could escalate into full blown conflict threatening regional peace. The new government needs to tread a very cautious path while dealing with this complex situation. Perhaps, realizing the gravity of the problem, Pakistan’s Defense Minister said that his government would like to address the issue of terrorism with Afghanistan through dialogue. In this vein, a Pakistani commerce ministry delegation is scheduled to arrive in Kabul today to explore ways to remove trade obstacles.

More importantly, the Afghan Taliban regime must also be made to realize that militant sanctuaries on its soil also pose a serious threat to Afghanistan’s own internal security. The recent suicide attack in Kandahar claimed by Daesh Khorasan that killed dozens of people must serve as a wake up call for the regime. 

There is no doubt that the Afghan Taliban’s return to power has been a major contributory factor in the revival of militant violence in Pakistan. However, the absence of a coherent counter terrorism strategy on Pakistan’s part has also allowed the TTP to re organize in the former tribal districts. The worsening political instability in the country has provided space to militant groups to operate. 

In order to fight violent militancy, the country needs a consensus among all stake holders and political forces. A divided nation cannot deal with such a grave internal and external security threat. Past policies of appeasement have come back to haunt the country.

– Zahid Hussain is an award-winning journalist and author. He is a former scholar at Woodrow Wilson Centre and a visiting fellow at Wolfson College, University of Cambridge, and at the Stimson Center in DC. He is author of Frontline Pakistan: The struggle with Militant Islam and The Scorpion’s tail: The relentless rise of Islamic militants in Pakistan. Frontline Pakistan was the book of the year (2007) by the WSJ. His latest book ‘No-Win War’ was published this year. Twitter: @hidhussain