Turkish local elections 2024: A seismic shift in power dynamics

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Two women sit near a campaign banner of Turkish President and leader of the Justice and Development Party, or AKP, Recep Tayyip in Istanbul, Turkiye, Monday, March 11, 2024. (AP Photo)
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Updated 01 April 2024
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Turkish local elections 2024: A seismic shift in power dynamics

  • Ruling AKP suffers major blow as main opposition CHP scores victories across the country
  • Sunday’s results could be step toward a presidential bid, analyst tells Arab News 

ANKARA: After millions of Turkish voters went to the polls on Sunday to elect local authorities in 81 provinces, the ruling Justice and Development Party, or AKP, suffered a major blow as the main opposition CHP scored victories across the country, consolidating its control in conservative strongholds with its biggest victory since 1977.

Experts suggested Sunday’s vote was a barometer of the national feeling among voters who have long struggled with a severe cost of living crisis.

The main question of the mayoral election was whether incumbent Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, 52, an arch-rival of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and a charismatic leader in his own right, could secure re-election in the city of 15.7 million people, against rival Murat Kurum, 47, the AKP candidate and the country’s former urbanization minister.

Erdogan, who was mayor of Istanbul himself between 1994 and 1997, once claimed that whoever wins the city will be able to dominate the whole country in a general election.

With a third of Turkiye’s economic output and 18 percent of the country’s population, Istanbul’s annual budget is $16 billion.

In the last local elections in 2019, Turkiye’s united opposition won the main cities of Ankara, the capital, and Istanbul, the commercial hub, ending the ruling party’s 25-year reign.

After Sunday’s vote, the main opposition CHP became the leading party, controlling 36 of the country’s 81 provinces.

Erdogan, 70, conceded defeat, saying: “March 31 is not an end for us, but a turning point.”

The president’s current term of office expires in four years. The AKP’s loss of votes nationally and defeats in major cities are expected to prevent it from initiating new constitutional changes that would allow Erdogan to rule beyond 2028.

Turkiye’s next elections will be held then, barring a snap election or referendum.

Imamoglu’s re-election is also expected to unite the Turkish opposition, as he is seen as a possible future challenger to Erdogan and the opposition’s best chance of regaining the presidency.

The incumbent mayor of Ankara, Mansur Yavas, also retained his position by a large margin.

Murat Somer, a political scientist at Istanbul’s Ozyegin University, said Turkish voters had given a big red card to the Erdogan government’s “authoritarianism and economic policies,” while rewarding opposition politicians who have been willing to reform since the May elections, punishing those who have been caught up in infighting.

“In return, Turkiye’s opposition parties have shown remarkable resilience and ability to regenerate despite a very uneven playing field in favour of the government. Ekrem Imamoglu has emerged as the new leader of the opposition and an agent of change for the next decade,” he told Arab News.

Turnout was around 76 percent, with some 61 million people eligible to vote, a significant drop from last year when 87 percent of voters cast their ballots. The decline in votes for the AKP is also partly explained by the emergence of several right-wing and Islamist parties to compete with it.

According to Somer, if Imamoglu can turn the broad coalition he has formed in Istanbul into a Turkiye-wide coalition, he may just be able to steer Turkiye onto a new and more inclusive course of economic development, peace and secular democracy.

“The most important aspect of this process is that it is a bottom-up rather than a top-down process. Large parts of the electorate of the ruling AKP, the right-wing IYI party and the pro-Kurdish Dem Parti seem to have voted against their party’s preferences and in favour of an ethnically, culturally and ideologically inclusive national alliance for democracy and change,” he said.

Somer also believes that the impact of this new local fault line on Turkiye’s political future will depend on how Erdogan and his party interpret the electorate’s message.

“It is less likely that he will go against the will of the people, because despite all the authoritarianism, the principle of popular sovereignty is well established in Turkiye. These results suggest that opposition parties should follow the lead of the electorate in forming coalitions rather than the other way around,” he said.

Berk Esen, a political scientist at Sabanci University in Istanbul, agrees that this is a historic victory for the country’s main opposition camp.

“Much of the media was under government control, and 17 government ministers used taxpayers’ money to campaign for the government candidates in Istanbul,” he told Arab News.

“And so, the CHP candidates, who were fighting an uphill battle, ended up winning all over the country, even in some conservative strongholds, like Adiyaman, almost doubling the number of provinces it controls and increasing its share of major municipalities from 11 to 15. This is truly historic,” he told Arab News.

Esen believes it will be very difficult for Erdogan to stabilize Turkiye’s competitive authoritarian regime in the future.

“I don’t expect him to go for early elections, even if the opposition asks him to do so. He may try to stabilize Turkiye’s economy, but given how much the current economic policies have minimized the AKP’s base in this election, it is difficult to really see how much longer such policies can continue. And even if the economy is managed, the Turkish economy will not necessarily see the phenomenal growth rates we saw in the 2000s,” he said.

The Turkish economy grew by 4.5 percent last year, according to official statistics, and inflation is soaring to almost 70 percent.

With Turkiye’s main local governments now controlled by opposition mayors, many of whom have increased their margins of victory, Esen believes it will be difficult for Erdogan to disrupt their municipal services.

“It will also be very difficult for Erdogan to impose his will and for civil servants, judges and journalists to act in a partisan manner,” he said.

The CHP “will also speak out against violations of freedoms, political rights and probably on the Kurdish question. I don’t think the election results will push Turkiye in a more authoritarian direction,” he added.

Esen also expects some power struggles within the AKP with Erdogan, which could see many people purged from the party.

Esen believes that the election results have highlighted several key points.

“First of all, the candidates matter. The opposition ended up with some really credible candidates in Istanbul and Ankara at the district level, who reflect the electorate they want to represent,” he added.

“On their side, the government has pursued a tight monetary policy, as opposed to pushing for an expansionary fiscal policy as we saw in the run-up to the presidential and parliamentary elections last year. I think that played a really big role as well,” Esen said.

Meanwhile, experts stress that the drop in turnout could be explained by the disillusionment of many pro-government voters over the ongoing economic downturn.

For Esen, Sunday’s election results could also be a new step toward a presidential bid.

Yavas and Imamoglu may consider running for president as of today, he said.

They both have “different political profiles and appeal to different segments of the Turkish electorate. I think they will start building a nationwide campaign,” he said.

Esen expects this to be Erdogan’s last election.

“Because I am not sure if he will be able to run such an effective campaign against these two formidable politicians. But we will also see a transition to a parliamentary system at some point, because Erdogan does not want to hand over so much power to the opposition. It is also an interesting question to explore,” he said.

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Syrian architect uses drone footage to help rebuild hometown

Updated 26 June 2025
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Syrian architect uses drone footage to help rebuild hometown

TAL MARDIKH, Syria: Syrian architect Abdel Aziz Al-Mohammed could barely recognize his war-ravaged village when he returned after years away. Now, his meticulous documentation of the damage, taken using a drone, helps to facilitate its rebuilding.

“When I first came back, I was shocked by the extent of the destruction,” said Mohammed, 34.

Walking through his devastated village of Tal Mardikh, in Syria’s northwestern Idlib province, he said he could not recognize “anything, I couldn’t even find my parents’ home.”

Nearly half of Tal Mardikh’s 1,500 homes have been destroyed and the rest damaged, mainly due to bombardment by the former Syrian army.

Mohammed, who in 2019 fled the bombardment to near the Turkish border, first returned days after a militant offensive toppled longtime ruler Bashar Assad in December.

The architect, now based in Idlib city, had documented the details of Tal Mardikh’s houses and streets before fleeing and later used his drone to document the destruction.

When he returned, he spent two weeks surveying the area, visiting homes, and creating an interactive map that detailed the conditions of each house. “We entered homes in fear, not knowing what was inside, as the regime controlled the area for five years,” he said.

Under the blazing sun, Mohammed watched as workers restored a house in Tal Mardikh, which adjoins the archeological site of Ebla, the seat of one of the Syrian Arab Republic’s earliest kingdoms.

His documentation of the village helped gain support from Shafak, a nongovernmental organization which agreed to fund the reconstruction and rehabilitation of 434 out of 800 damaged homes in Tal Mardikh.

The work is expected to be completed in August and includes the restoration of two wells and sanitation networks, at a cost exceeding $1 million.


Instagram influencer Motaz Azaiza brings the Gaza story to US

Updated 26 June 2025
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Instagram influencer Motaz Azaiza brings the Gaza story to US

PHILADELPHIA: At a church in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, hundreds of people gathered recently for a weeknight charity fundraiser hosted by a celebrity guest.

The venue was not announced in advance due to security concerns, and attendance cost at least $60 a pop — with some spending $1,000 to get a photo with the host.

Yet, the event was not a gala hosted by a movie star or famed politician, but by a photojournalist: Gaza native Motaz Azaiza, whose images of the Israeli assault following the Oct. 7, 2023, attack launched him to international recognition.

Wearing a black T-shirt, jeans, sneakers, and gold-framed glasses, the 26-year-old boasts nearly 17 million followers on Instagram for his images from the war in Gaza.

“I wish you had known me without the genocide,” Azaiza told the crowd, his voice faltering.

Before the war, Azaiza was a relatively unknown figure, posting photos from his daily life in Deir Al-Balah, in the central Gaza Strip, to his roughly 25,000 Instagram followers at the time.

But as soon as the first strikes from Israel hit Gaza, he became a war photographer by virtue of circumstance, and his wartime posts soon went viral.

“As a photojournalist, I can’t watch this like anyone else, I’m from there, this is my home,” Azaiza said.

After surviving 108 days of Israeli bombardment, Azaiza managed to escape Gaza via Egypt, and he has since become an ambassador of sorts for the Palestinian territory, sharing the story of his people as the conflict rages on.

“Every time you feel like you regret leaving, but then you lose a friend, you lose a family, you say, OK, I saved my life,” Azaiza said.

Before the war, Azaiza had been hired to manage the online content for the UN Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East, or UNRWA, the humanitarian agency accused by Israel of providing cover for militants.

This month, he is touring the US to raise money for UNRWA USA, a nonprofit that collects funding for the agency.

“I can’t handle this much of fame ... it’s a real big responsibility,” Azaiza said from the fundraiser in Philadelphia.

“This is not me ... I’m waiting for the genocide to stop. I want to go back to Gaza, continue my work capturing pictures,” he added.

At one point, he blended into the crowd, posing for a selfie before shaking hands with the donors.

At the fundraiser, a UNRWA USA official solicited donations.

“Is there someone who wants to give $20,000? I would like to have $20,000. Nobody? Is there someone who wants to give $10,000? I would like to have $10,000,” the official calls out.

Once the call lowered to $5,000, five hands raised, and even more went up when asked for donations of $2,000 and $1,000.

One of the donors, Nabeel Sarwar, said Azaiza’s photographs “humanize” the people in Gaza.

“When you see a picture, when you see a child, you relate to that child, you relate to the body language, you relate to the dust on their face, the hunger, the sadness on their face,” Sarwar said.

“I think it’s those pictures that really brought home the real tragedy of what’s going on in Gaza.”

Veronica Murgulescu, a 25-year-old medical student from Philadelphia, concurred.

“I think that people like Motaz and other Gaza journalists have really struck a chord with us, because you can sense the authenticity,” she said.

“The mainstream media that we have here in the US, at least, and in the West, lacks authenticity,” she added.

Sahar Khamis, a communications professor at the University of Maryland who specializes in Arab and Muslim media in the Middle East, said Gazan journalists like Azaiza who have become social media influencers “reshape public opinion, especially among youth, not just in the Arab world, not just in the Middle East, but globally and internationally, including in the US.”

“The visuals are very, very important and very powerful and very compelling ... as we know in journalism, that one picture equals a thousand words.

“And in the case of war and conflict, it can equal a million words, because you can tell through these short videos and short images and photos a lot of things that you cannot say in a whole essay.”


Musk calls Lebanese president as Starlink seeks license

Updated 26 June 2025
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Musk calls Lebanese president as Starlink seeks license

  • Musk called Aoun and “expressed his interest in Lebanon and its telecommunications and Internet sectors“
  • Aoun invited Musk to visit Lebanon

BEIRUT: Billionaire businessman Elon Musk and Lebanese President Joseph Aoun spoke by phone to discuss making elements of Musk’s sprawling business empire available in Lebanon, a statement from Aoun’s office said on Thursday.

The statement said Musk called Aoun and “expressed his interest in Lebanon and its telecommunications and Internet sectors.”

Aoun invited Musk to visit Lebanon and said he was open to having Musk’s companies present in the country, which ranks among the countries with the lowest Internet speeds.

The call came just weeks after Aoun and other top Lebanese officials met with Starlink’s Global Director of Licensing and Development, Sam Turner, in Beirut for talks on providing satellite Internet services in Lebanon. US ambassador Lisa Johnson was pictured attending those meetings.

The negotiations have prompted some pushback in Lebanon. Internet access in the country has so far been operated exclusively by state-owned companies and their affiliates, who are lobbying the government not to license Starlink.

Starlink recently received licenses to operate in India and Lesotho.


Greece seeks cooperation with Libya to stop migration, PM says

Updated 26 June 2025
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Greece seeks cooperation with Libya to stop migration, PM says

  • Greece said it would deploy two frigates and one more vessel off Libya’s territorial waters to deter migrants from reaching its southern islands
  • Mitsotakis said authorities in Libya should cooperate with Greece to stop migrants

BRUSSELS: Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis said on Thursday that Libya should cooperate with Greece and Europe to help halt a surge in migration flows from the north African state.

Seaborne arrivals of migrants in Europe from the north of Africa, including war-torn Sudan, and the Middle East have spiked in recent months.

Greece said on Monday it would deploy two frigates and one more vessel off Libya’s territorial waters to deter migrants from reaching its southern islands of Crete and Gavdos.

“I will inform my colleagues about the significant increase in the number of people from eastern Libya and ask for the support of the European Commission so that the issue can be addressed immediately,” Mitsotakis said ahead of an European Union summit in Brussels that began on Thursday.

Mitsotakis said authorities in Libya should cooperate with Greece to stop migrants sailing from there or turn them back before they exit Libyan territorial waters.

He added that the EU’s migration commissioner and ministers from Italy, Greece and Malta would travel to Libya early in July to discuss the issue.

Law and order has been weak in Libya since a 2011 uprising that toppled dictator Muammar Qaddafi, with the country divided by factional conflict into eastern and western sections for over a decade.


Israeli strikes kill 2 in south Lebanon

Updated 26 June 2025
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Israeli strikes kill 2 in south Lebanon

  • Lebanon’s health ministry said a man wounded “in an Israeli enemy drone strike targeting his bulldozer” and another injured in a strike on a motorcycle both died in hospital
  • Israeli military said they “eliminated... a commander in Hezbollah’s Radwan Force“

BEIRUT: Israeli strikes in south Lebanon on Thursday killed two people, the Lebanese health ministry said, with the Israeli army saying its raids targeted Hezbollah operatives.

In statements carried by the official National News Agency, Lebanon’s health ministry said a man wounded “in an Israeli enemy drone strike targeting his bulldozer” and another injured in a strike on a motorcycle both died in hospital.

The Israeli military said in a statement that its forces “eliminated... a commander in Hezbollah’s Radwan Force” in the Baraasheet area, referring to the Iran-backed group’s elite unit, and an operative from “Hezbollah’s observation force” in Beit Lif.

Israel has kept up regular strikes on Lebanon, particularly in the south, since a November 27 ceasefire meant to end over a year of hostilities that left Hezbollah severely weakened.

Under the ceasefire deal, Hezbollah was to pull its fighters back north of the Litani river, some 30 kilometers (20 miles) from the Israeli border, leaving the Lebanese army and United Nations peacekeepers as the only armed parties in the area.

Israel was required to fully withdraw its troops but has kept them in five locations in south
Lebanon that it deems strategic.

On Tuesday, the health ministry said three people were killed in an Israeli strike on a vehicle in south Lebanon’s Nabatiyeh district.

The Israeli military said it killed the head of a currency exchange firm who worked with Hezbollah to transfer funds for the Iran-backed group’s “terrorist activities.”