Foreign policy challenges for Sharif government 

The most consequential task of the Shehbaz Sharif government is extricating Pakistan’s ailing economy from the critical ward. Therefore, it is rightly receiving priority attention from the Prime Minister. But on foreign policy too there are imposing challenges to navigate on both regional and global fronts.

The country’s new foreign minister Ishaq Dar has to deal with a slew of complex issues at a time when the world is unsettled and in flux. Rising geopolitical tensions, the US-China standoff, two major ongoing wars, a fraying world order and global economic volatility are all contributing to international instability. Given this challenging global landscape it is important for the managers of Pakistan’s foreign policy to take stock. The first order of business should be to undertake a broad review of foreign policy. Such a wide-ranging review hasn’t been undertaken for years if not decades — even though there have been fundamental changes including global power shifts and increasing multipolarity. 

A review will help to adjust policy to these changes and reshape the country’s strategy to more effectively pursue diplomatic goals. It will enable examination of key relationships in a wider context and not in isolation, which has obvious disadvantages. It will also offer an opportunity to craft a strategy that matches the country’s goals to its diplomatic resources and capital. In recent years, Pakistan’s foreign policy has been a series of ad hoc responses to regional and global developments rather than a well-considered and coherent approach. A review will inject clarity in policy and also encourage a proactive approach that can leverage opportunities.

The immediate challenges lie in the country’s neighborhood. For the first time in decades Pakistan faces troubled relations with three of its neighbors. Last month Pakistan launched air strikes against militant hideouts in Afghanistan in retaliation for cross border terror attacks in Pakistan from Afghan soil. In January Iran and Pakistan traded air strikes; the presence of armed groups on both sides of the border long being a source of discord. Relations with India remain turbulent. 

As the pivot of China’s Belt and Road Initiative, CPEC’s timely progress is critical to reinforce Beijing’s interest in strengthening Pakistan, economically and strategically.

Maleeha Lodhi

Managing relations with India presents a vexing foreign policy challenge. India goes to the polls in April-May so if there is to be any diplomatic movement it will have to wait until the outcome of the election. Normalization of relations faces several obstacles. There has been some speculation whether trade, suspended since 2019, can be resumed. Any renewal of dialogue on this and other issues will have to be reciprocal; Islamabad cannot take a unilateral step. Moreover, before trade was halted, India had slapped a 200 percent customs duty on Pakistani exports in February 2019; its non-tariff barriers also pose a problem. They are obvious obstacles to resumption of trade. Above all India’s refusal to talk to Pakistan about the Kashmir dispute is a major impediment to normalizing relations including trade ties. 

Relations between the two neighbors were ruptured when India illegally annexed Jammu and Kashmir in August 2019, and absorbed it into the Indian Union in brazen violation of UN Security Council resolutions. It would be difficult for Pakistan to take steps to normalize ties if Delhi rules out discussion of the issue. This makes the outlook for Pakistan-India relations uncertain. 

Relations with Afghanistan have plunged to a new low over the Taliban’s unwillingness to act against the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) that continues to carry out attacks from its sanctuaries in Afghanistan. With its patience exhausted in the face of a surge in terror attacks Islamabad has, after taking a kinetic operation in Afghanistan, called on Kabul “to take effective action to ensure Afghan soil is not used as a staging ground for terrorism against Pakistan.” Any significant improvement in Pak-Afghan relations will depend on how the Taliban respond to Pakistan’s demands on TTP. Till then Islamabad will continue to pursue a carrot and stick policy using its considerable leverage to mount pressure on Kabul.

At the global level the key challenge will be to navigate the US-China confrontation, without getting into the crosshairs of the big power rivalry. Relations with China will remain Islamabad’s overriding strategic priority, as this meets both Pakistan’s security and economic objectives. But relations will need consistent reinforcement to keep them on a positive trajectory. Last month’s terrorist attack in Bisham which claimed the lives of five Chinese nationals working on the Dasu dam project underlines the need for Pakistan to guarantee the safety of thousands of Chinese citizens working on the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). As the pivot of China’s Belt and Road Initiative, CPEC’s timely progress is critical to reinforce Beijing’s interest in strengthening Pakistan, economically and strategically. This is especially important as it enters the second phase with greater focus on agriculture, industry, mining, new energy, and IT sectors, while advancing major connectivity infrastructure projects.

Ties with the US continue to be among Pakistan’s most critical bilateral relationships. But relations have been at an inflection point since the US military withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2021. In this changed context relations need a reset, but at a time when the overwhelming US strategic priority is containment of China and India is its partner of choice in the region. The challenge for the two countries is to find space between the Pakistan-China strategic relationship and the growing US-India partnership and identify areas of cooperation on which to redefine and rebuild ties.

This is by no means an exhaustive list of foreign policy issues for the Sharif government. Strategic ally Saudi Arabia, the EU – Pakistan’s second largest trading partner – UK, other Arab states, Southeast Asian nations and Africa all merit attention. Indeed, in an increasingly multipolar world, Pakistan needs a diplomatic strategy to engage many more countries as well as actors beyond governments to accomplish its foreign policy objectives.

– Maleeha Lodhi is a former Pakistani ambassador to the US, UK & UN. Twitter @LodhiMaleeha