Why Daesh and its affiliates are on the march in Africa’s Sahel and beyond

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Updated 09 April 2024
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Why Daesh and its affiliates are on the march in Africa’s Sahel and beyond

  • Disintegration of regional alliances, economic instability and ethnic stife have allowed violent extremists to flourish in Africa
  • Experts say unchecked expansion of African militant groups threatens both regional stability and global security 

ACCRA, Ghana: Despite the loss of its strongholds in Iraq and Syria at the hands of a US-led international coalition, the terror group Daesh has been making alarming advances across the African continent, particularly in notoriously unstable regions such as the Sahel, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Somalia and Mozambique.

The resurgence of Daesh in Africa is not only a cause for grave concern for the continent, but it also poses a potential threat to global security, especially with the pace of foreign fighter mobilization in fragile states and the transnational appeal of Islamic radicalism.




Map locating jihadist attacks attributed to the Daesh or other jihadist groups since 2021 to July 21, 2023 in the Sahel region. (AFP/File)

Recent developments, including arrests in Spain linked to recruitment efforts for Mali, underscore the growing interest and activity of Daesh in Africa. Meanwhile, the substantial revenues generated by Al-Shabab, which takes in an estimated $120 million from extortion alone, is cementing its position as the most cash-rich extremist group in the continent.

As international involvement wanes in the Sahel and regional governments grapple with internal instability, terrorist organizations are exploiting the resulting vacuum to escalate their activities.




Islamist fighters loyal to Somalia’s Al-Qaida inspired al-Shabab group perform military drills at a village in Lower Shabelle region, outside Mogadishu. (AFP/File)

Climate risks, food insecurity and metastasizing violence were all set to intensify in the West African Sahel, predicted a World Economic Forum report of January 2019. 

Since then, the withdrawal of French and European forces from Mali, coupled with the suspension of UN peacekeeping missions, has emboldened militant groups, leading to a spike in attacks on civilian populations and security forces.




French anti-jihadist troops began pulling out of Mali in 2022 amid a disagreement between France and West African's nation's military rulers. (Etat Major des Armees nadout via AFP)

In Mali, where a fragile transition to civilian rule is underway amid escalating violence, Islamist groups such as Jama’at Nusrat Al-Islam wal-Muslimin and the Islamic State Sahel Province have intensified their offensives, aiming to consolidate control over northern territories.

The withdrawal of UN peacekeepers has left a security void that these groups are keen to fill, leading to increased clashes with both government forces and Tuareg rebel factions.

Neighboring countries such as Burkina Faso and Niger are also grappling with lawlessness and soaring violence. Recent attacks by extremist groups have resulted in large casualties among security personnel and civilian populations, worsening the already precarious security situation in these countries.




Fighters of the Azawad National Liberation Movement (MLNA) gather in an undisclosed location in Mali. Fearful of being caught in the middle of the conflict engulfing Mali, the country's Tuaregs helped in the French-led campaign to drive Islamic radicals out of the country. Now they have to fight on their own. (MNLA handout photo/AFP)

The massacre at a public event in the Russian capital, Moscow, last month, which killed at least 140 people, was one of the largest terrorist attacks in recent years, particularly after the thwarting of plots in locations like Germany, Austria, the Netherlands, France and Turkiye, along with dozens of recent terrorism-related arrests.

European governments have moved to their highest alert levels for many years.

INNUMBERS

5,000 Estimated Daesh fighters in Iraq.

50% Africa’s share of terrorist acts worldwide.

25 Central Sahel region share of terrorist attacks worldwide.

$25 million Estimated financial reserves of Daesh.

The entity accredited with many of these audacious plots is Daesh’s “Khorasan” branch, or Daesh-K, which is based in Afghanistan and is active throughout Central and South Asia. 

Amid these developments, the lack of international support poses a clear and imminent danger to the stability of the entire Sahel region, a difficult-to-monitor territory spanning several countries from the Atlantic coast to the Red Sea.

Furthermore, last year’s coup in Niger — one of the poorest countries in the world with minimal government services — and the subsequent suspension of the country from the African Union have further complicated efforts to address the terrorist threat. With regional alliances shifting and international assistance dwindling, the prospects for effectively countering terrorism in the Sahel appear increasingly uncertain.

In addition, extremist groups have demonstrated their capability to launch attacks beyond the Sahel, posing a direct threat to the security of coastal states of West Africa, including Senegal, the Ivory Coast, Ghana, and Nigeria.




Ivorian soldiers carry the coffins of four compatriots serving with United Nations peacekeeping mission in Mali at a military base in Abidjan on February 22, 2021. The four were killed during an attack by extremists. (AFP)

“To understand their recent re-emergence, it’s important to look back at the group’s beginnings, how they engaged with other violent extremist organizations and non-state armed groups in their sub-region,” Aneliese Bernard, director at Strategic Stabilization Advisors, an advisory group focused on conflict and insecurity, told Arab News.

She pointed out that ISSP initially partnered with Al-Qaeda-aligned groups until 2019, when their alliance broke due to differences in governance methods. JNIM’s focus on redistributing revenue clashed with ISSP’s individual looting approach, leading to defections and tension between the groups.

“There were other reasons as well, including the fact that the regional security forces were very focused on reducing IS Sahel’s footprint in Niger, pushing them into space that was controlled by JNIM, causing the groups to compete over space and clash further,” Bernard said.

Other internal factors also contribute to the rise of Daesh in Africa. The leader of the Islamic State in the Greater Sahara, the predecessor to ISSP, was killed by French forces in the Sahel in August 2021, and “the group was quiet for a bit as leadership and its structure recalibrated.”

Some suggest that ISSP and JNIM might have called a truce, although clashes continue intermittently. Others stress that the security vacuum in Niger created by the July 2023 coup has likely emboldened ISSP to resume its activities.

Also, “the disintegration of key regional alliances, such as the G5 Sahel, following the withdrawal of key members (Mali, Niger, Burkina Faso), has exacerbated the problem,” Souley Amalkher, a Nigerien security expert, told Arab News.

Previously, the G5 Sahel consisted of Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, Mauritania, and Niger, and focused on development and security issues in West Africa. By the end of 2023, only Chad and Mauritania remained, announcing that the alliance would soon dissolve.

“Without effective governance structures in place, addressing terrorism becomes increasingly challenging, underscoring the urgent need for improved governance policies and the creation of secure environments for local populations.

“To address these challenges, there is a pressing need for regional collaboration between Sahelian states and those in North Africa, particularly Libya and Algeria. Strengthening regional initiatives can help fill existing gaps in counterterrorism efforts and bolster the resilience of affected regions,” Amalkher said.

The root causes of Daesh’s expansion in Africa are manifold. Prominent among them are the fragility of local state structures, social injustice, ethnic and religious conflict, and economic inequality.




Insufficient rainfall since late 2020 has come as a fatal blow to populations already suffering from a locust invasion between 2019 and 2021, the Covid-19 pandemic in Baidoa, Somalia. The situation in the Horn of Africa has raised fears of a tragedy similar to that of 2011, the last famine that killed 260,000 people in Somalia. (AFP/File)

“Daesh and other extremist organizations in Africa are predatory groups that rely on exploiting absences in governance and security,” Bernard said.

“They operate as insurgents rather than traditional terrorists, often launching guerrilla-style attacks before dispersing into local communities. Then, heavy-handed security responses contribute to grievances and fuel extremist recruitment.”

Bernard explained that counterterrorism efforts can often backfire, furthering even more fighting and bloodshed. “These efforts, if lacking coordination with security operations, often fall short against insurgents who adapt quickly, emphasizing the need for more effective strategies addressing root causes,” she said.

In the DRC, the Daesh-affiliated Allied Democratic Forces are just one of over 100 militias and active armed groups. Despite joint efforts by Uganda and the DRC to combat the ADF in 2021, the group remains elusive and difficult to eradicate.




An aerial image shows displaced people fleeing the scene of an attack allegedly perpetrated by the rebel group Allied Democratic Forces (ADF) in the Halungupa village near Beni in DR Congo on February 18, 2020. (AFP/File)                                                                                    

Recently, Uganda raised its security alert as ADF militants crossed into the country, underscoring the persistent nature of the threat posed by the group. In Mozambique’s Cabo Delgado province, the threat of terrorism continues to pose a significant challenge. Despite initial momentum against ISIS-Mozambique, inadequate coordination and tactics have hindered efforts to eliminate the group.

IS-M’s use of guerrilla warfare tactics and constant movement make it difficult for security forces to root them out, “with some operations seemingly stuck in a routine of patrols and defense rather than actively pursuing the group,” Canadian security expert Royce de Melo told Arab News.

The presence of other armed groups, including the Russian paramilitary Wagner Group, which recently rebranded itself as the Africa Corps, complicates the security landscape within and beyond the Sahel. De Melo said: “Their involvement has fueled anti-government sentiments and served as a rallying cry for Islamist groups, portraying the Russians as oppressors.”

He added that Wagner’s involvement in Mozambique to combat IS-M in Cabo Delgado ended in failure “due to incompetence, racism and internal conflicts.”




Protesters holds a banner reading "Thank you Wagner", the name of the Russian private security firm present in Mali, during a demonstration organized by the pan-Africanst platform Yerewolo to celebrate France's announcement to withdraw French troops from Mali, in Bamako, on Feb. 19, 2022. (AFP)

The rise of extremist violence in Africa is not only a security concern; it also compounds the region’s pervasive humanitarian crisis. Displacement, food insecurity, and economic instability are further worsened by the activities of terrorist organizations, creating a vicious cycle of instability and suffering for millions of people across the continent.

“When evaluating the success of counterterrorism strategies, if terrorist groups remain active, continue to launch attacks, and even grow in strength despite efforts to eradicate them, it becomes evident that current strategies are ineffective and require reassessment,” De Melo said.

“Training, discipline, equipment, technology and culture, as well as good governance, good leadership and morale, are all factors in having a powerful and effective security force that can take the war to Daesh.”
 

 


Pressure builds on Afghans fearing arrest in Pakistan

Updated 7 sec ago
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Pressure builds on Afghans fearing arrest in Pakistan

KARACHI: Convoys of Afghans pressured to leave Pakistan are driving to the border, fearing the “humiliation” of arrest, as the government’s crackdown on migrants sees widespread public support.
Islamabad wants to deport 800,000 Afghans after canceling their residence permits — the second phase of a deportation program which has already pushed out around 800,000 undocumented Afghans since 2023.
According to the UN refugee agency, more than 24,665 Afghans have left Pakistan since April 1, 10,741 of whom were deported.
“People say the police will come and carry out raids. That is the fear. Everyone is worried about that,” Rahmat Ullah, an Afghan migrant in the megacity Karachi told AFP.
“For a man with a family, nothing is worse than seeing the police take his women from his home. Can anything be more humiliating than this? It would be better if they just killed us instead,” added Nizam Gull, as he backed his belongings and prepared to return to Afghanistan.
Abdul Shah Bukhari, a community leader in one of the largest informal Afghan settlements in the coastal city, has watched multiple buses leave daily for the Afghan border, about 700 kilometers away.
The maze of makeshift homes has grown over decades with the arrival of families fleeing successive wars in Afghanistan. But now, he said “people are leaving voluntarily.”
“What is the need to cause distress or harassment?” said Bukhari.
Ghulam Hazrat, a truck driver, said he reached the Chaman border crossing with Afghanistan after days of police harassment in Karachi.
“We had to leave behind our home. We were being harassed every day.”
In Peshawar, the capital of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, on the Afghan border, police climb mosque minarets to order Afghans to leave: “The stay of Afghan nationals in Pakistan has expired. They are requested to return to Afghanistan voluntarily.”
Police warnings are not only aimed at Afghans, but also at Pakistani landlords.
“Two police officers came to my house on Sunday and told me that if there are any Afghan nationals living here they should be evicted,” Farhan Ahmad told AFP.
Human Rights Watch has slammed “abusive tactics” used to pressure Afghans to return to their country, “where they risk persecution by the Taliban and face dire economic conditions.”
In September 2023, hundreds of thousands of undocumented Afghans poured across the border into Afghanistan in the days leading up to a deadline to leave, after weeks of police raids and the demolition of homes.
After decades of hosting millions of Afghan refugees, there is widespread support among the Pakistani public for the deportations.
“They eat here, live here, but are against us. Terrorism is coming from there (Afghanistan), and they should leave; that is their country. We did a lot for them,” Pervaiz Akhtar, a university teacher, told AFP at a market in the capital Islamabad.
“Come with a valid visa, and then come and do business with us,” said Muhammad Shafiq, a 55-year-old businessman.
His views echo the Pakistani government, which for months has blamed rising violence in the border regions on “Afghan-backed perpetrators” and argued that the country can no longer support such a large migrant population.
However, analysts have said the deportation drive is political.
Relations between Kabul and Islamabad have soured since the Taliban returned to power in 2021.
“The timing and manner of their deportation indicates it is part of Pakistan’s policy of mounting pressure on the Taliban,” Maleeha Lodhi, the former permanent representative of Pakistan to the UN told AFP.
“This should have been done in a humane, voluntary and gradual way.”

Beijing rejects Ukraine claim ‘many’ Chinese fighting for Russia

Updated 11 min 6 sec ago
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Beijing rejects Ukraine claim ‘many’ Chinese fighting for Russia

  • Chinese foreign ministry said it was 'absolutely groundless' to suggest many Chinese citizens were fighting in Ukraine
  • Beijing was verifying relevant information with Kyiv while Moscow declined to comment on the matter

KYIV: China on Wednesday rejected Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s claim that many Chinese citizens were fighting for Russia, calling it “absolutely groundless.”
Zelensky said Tuesday that Kyiv had captured two Chinese citizens fighting alongside Russian forces, and that there was evidence “many more Chinese citizens” were fighting with Moscow.
Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Lin Jian told a press conference it was “absolutely groundless” to suggest many Chinese citizens were fighting in Ukraine.
“The Chinese government has always asked its citizens to stay away from areas of armed conflict (and) avoid involvement in armed conflicts in any form,” he said.
He added that Beijing was verifying relevant information with Kyiv.
The Kremlin declined to comment on the matter.
China presents itself as a neutral party in the conflict and says it is not sending lethal assistance to either side, unlike the United States and other Western nations.
But it is a close political and economic partner of Russia, and NATO members have branded Beijing a “decisive enabler” of Moscow’s offensive, which it has never condemned.
“The Chinese side’s position on the issue of the Ukraine crisis is clear and unequivocal, and has won widespread approval from the international community,” Lin said.
“The Ukrainian side should correctly view China’s efforts and constructive role in pushing for a political resolution to the Ukraine crisis.”
Zelensky told reporters on Tuesday that Ukrainian troops had captured the two Chinese citizens fighting with Russian forces in the Donetsk region.
The media outlet Ukrainska Pravda, citing the Ukrainian army, reported that one of the captives had paid $3,480 to an intermediary in China to join the Russian army because he wanted to receive Russian citizenship.
The captive, who is now cooperating with the Ukrainian authorities, also said he was trained in the Russian-occupied Lugansk region as part of a group of Chinese nationals, some of whom had legal issues back home, according to Ukrainska Pravda.
Kyiv released a video of one of the alleged Chinese prisoners showing a man wearing military fatigues with his hands bound.
He mimicked sounds from combat and uttered several words in Mandarin during an apparent interview with a Ukrainian official not pictured.
A senior Ukrainian official told AFP they were captured “a few days ago,” adding that there might be more of them.
The official said the prisoners were likely Chinese citizens who were enticed into signing a contract with the Russian army, rather than being sent by Beijing.


India says PM Modi invited for Russia’s Victory Day parade

Indian PM Narendra Modi has been invited to attend Russia’s annual Victory Day parade in Moscow. (File/AFP)
Updated 17 min 43 sec ago
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India says PM Modi invited for Russia’s Victory Day parade

  • Historically close to Russia, India has resisted Western pressure to distance itself from Moscow following its invasion of Ukraine
  • Russia sells India critical military hardware, and has also increasingly emerged as a key energy supplier

NEW DELHI: Prime Minister Narendra Modi has been invited to attend Russia’s annual Victory Day parade in Moscow, India’s foreign ministry said on Wednesday, without confirming the premier’s attendance.
Russia has promised to hold its biggest World War II commemorations “in history” to mark 80 years since the Soviet Union and allied powers defeated Nazi Germany.
The annual Victory Day celebration on May 9 has emerged as Russia’s most important public holiday, one marked with a massive parade of military equipment and soldiers through the Red Square, and culminating in an address from President Vladimir Putin.
Historically close to Russia, India has resisted Western pressure to distance itself from Moscow following its invasion of Ukraine.
Russia sells India critical military hardware, and has also increasingly emerged as a key energy supplier as New Delhi seeks a pipeline of cheap imports to fuel its economic expansion.
“Our prime minister has received an invitation for participation in the Victory Day celebrations,” foreign ministry spokesman Randhir Jaiswal said in New Delhi.
“We will be announcing our participation in victory day celebrations at the appropriate time.”
Modi visited Russia last October for a multilateral summit and Putin is expected to arrive in India for a bilateral later this year.


Never take peace for granted, King Charles tells Italy parliament

Britain's King Charles III and Britain's Queen Camilla arrive to attend a joint session at the Italian Parliament.
Updated 09 April 2025
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Never take peace for granted, King Charles tells Italy parliament

  • “Britain and Italy stand today united in defense of the democratic values we share,” King Charles said
  • He became the first ever British monarch to address a joint session of Italy’s parliament

ROME: King Charles III warned Wednesday that peace can never be taken for granted and hailed Italy for standing by Ukraine, as he made a historic address to parliament in Rome.
“Peace is never to be taken, never to be taken for granted,” the 76-year-old monarch said during his third day of a state visit to Italy with his wife, Queen Camilla.
“Britain and Italy stand today united in defense of the democratic values we share.
“Our countries have both stood by Ukraine in her hour of need and welcomed many thousands of Ukrainians requiring shelter.”
He noted the defense ties between Italy and the UK, through NATO and a project to develop a new fighter jet with Japan.
Speaking in English with some Italian, Charles became the first ever British monarch to address a joint session of Italy’s parliament.
The king also addressed an issue close to his heart, the environment.
“Just as we stand together in defense of our values, so too we stand together in defense of our planet,” he said.
“From the droughts in Sicily to the floods in Somerset, both our countries are already seeing the ever more damaging effects of climate change.”


Indonesia deploys 1,090 soldiers for UN peacekeeping mission in Lebanon

Updated 09 April 2025
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Indonesia deploys 1,090 soldiers for UN peacekeeping mission in Lebanon

  • Country has contributed troops to UN peacekeeping mission in Lebanon since 2006
  • Indonesian soldiers were wounded when Israel attacked UNIFIL peacekeepers last year

JAKARTA: The Indonesian military dispatched 1,090 peacekeepers on Wednesday to serve in the UN Interim Force in Lebanon, for which Indonesia is the main troop-contributing country.

Indonesia has contributed troops to UNIFIL since 2006, after the operation’s mandate was expanded by the UN Security Council following the Second Lebanon War to help the Lebanese Army keep control over the south of the country, which borders Israel.

The new batch of Indonesian soldiers will replace the current group serving in the country’s Garuda Contingent, which consists of 1,230 personnel and whose terms expire at the end of this month.

“Today, I am very proud to send off 1,090 selected Indonesian soldiers to join the Garuda Contingent, which is on duty in the UNIFIL Mission in Lebanon,” Indonesian Armed Forces Chief Gen. Agus Subiyanto said at a pre-departure briefing in Jakarta.

“The trust that the UN has given to Indonesia to continue sending forces for its peacekeeping operations is proof that the world recognizes the professionalism, discipline and dedication of the Indonesian Armed Forces.”

As of December 2024, UNIFIL’s force consists of 10,251 peacekeepers from 48 troop-contributing countries, with Indonesia topping the list, followed by Italy and India.

“The Indonesian Army’s involvement in UN peacekeeping operations is not merely a military mission, but also a humanitarian and cultural mission, and a national diplomacy at the global level,” Subiyanto said.

“I wish to remind every soldier that this mission is a sacred and noble mandate, so carry out this task as best as you can.”

UNIFIL has been patrolling the border area between Lebanon and Israel for almost 50 years.

The peacekeeping forces have been attacked multiple times by Israeli troops since Israel’s invasion of Lebanon last year.

Two Indonesian soldiers were among those wounded in October when Israeli tanks entered Naqoura village — where UNIFIL headquarters is located — and began firing on peacekeepers.

“The escalating conflict between Hezbollah and Israel has been intensifying more lately. This tension has a huge impact on the south Lebanon region, where you have been assigned. For this I ask that you always prioritize safety while conducting your duties,” Subiyanto told the new batch of Indonesian peacekeepers.

“If the threat escalates and you are required to leave the area of ​​operations, implement the contingency plan prepared by the UN.”

Indonesia is among the main troop-contributing countries in UN’s global peacekeeping operations, with 2,736 soldiers serving across eight missions.