Oil Updates – prices turn higher as Middle East ceasefire hopes wane

Brent crude futures rose 14 cents to $90.52 a barrel by 9:10 Saudi time. Shutterstock
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Updated 09 April 2024
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Oil Updates – prices turn higher as Middle East ceasefire hopes wane

BEIJING: Oil prices rose on Tuesday after hopes diminished that negotiations between Israel and Hamas would lead to a ceasefire in Gaza amid concerns the lingering conflict could potentially disrupt supply from the key Middle East producing region, according to Reuters.

Brent crude futures rose 14 cents to $90.52 a barrel by 9:10 Saudi time. US West Texas Intermediate crude was 10 cents higher at $86.53.

A fresh round of Israel-Hamas ceasefire discussions in Cairo had ended a multi-session rally on Monday, leading Brent to its first decline in five sessions and WTI to its first in seven on the prospect that geopolitical risks could ease.

But Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Monday an unspecified date had been set for Israel’s invasion of the Rafah enclave in Gaza.

That is “ending the hopes that briefly gripped the market yesterday that geopolitical tensions in the region might be easing,” Tony Sycamore, a market analyst with IG, wrote in a note.

Hamas said early on Tuesday that Israel’s proposal it received from Qatari and Egyptian mediators did not meet any of the demands of Palestinian factions. But Hamas said it would study the proposal before responding to the mediators.

Without an end to the conflict, there is an elevated risk that it involves other countries in the region, especially Iran, a major Hamas backer and the third-largest producer in the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries.

An Iranian response to Israel’s suspected attack last week on its consulate in Syria “could drag the oil market into the conflict, after being largely unimpacted since Hamas’s attack on Israel,” ANZ analysts said in a client note.

Tehran said that it would take revenge after an airstrike killed two of its generals and five military advisers in Damascus, although Israel has not claimed responsibility for the attack.

“The positive geopolitical risk premium is indeed supporting the current medium-term uptrend phase of oil,” said Kelvin Wong, a senior market analyst at OANDA in Singapore.

Broader fundamentals are supportive of prices as well, the ANZ analysts said. India’s fuel demand hit a record high in the 2024 fiscal year driven by higher gasoline and jet fuel consumption, data showed on Monday. An improvement in Chinese manufacturing activity announced last week is also expected to boost fuel demand.

This week, the market will be watching inflation data due from the US and China for further signals on the economic direction of the world’s top two oil consumers.

In the Americas, Mexico’s state oil company Pemex said it would reduce crude exports by 330,000 barrels per day so it can supply more to domestic refineries, cutting the supply available to the company’s US, European and Asian buyers by one-third. 


Oil settles up 7% as Israel, Iran trade air strikes

A pumpjack operates at the Vermilion Energy site in Trigueres, France, June 14, 2024. (Reuters)
Updated 5 sec ago
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Oil settles up 7% as Israel, Iran trade air strikes

HOUSTON: Oil prices jumped on Friday and settled 7 percent higher as Israel and Iran traded air strikes, feeding investor worries that the combat could widely disrupt oil exports from the Middle East.

Brent crude futures settled at $74.23 a barrel, up $4.87, or 7.02%, after earlier soaring over 13% to an intraday high of $78.50, the strongest level since January 27. Brent was 12.5% higher than a week ago.

US West Texas Intermediate crude finished at $72.98 a barrel, up $4.94, or 7.62%. During the session, WTI jumped over 14% to its highest since January 21 at $77.62. WTI climbed 13% to its level a week ago.

Both benchmarks had their largest intraday moves since 2022 when Russia's invasion of Ukraine caused a spike in energy prices.

Israel said it had targeted Iran's nuclear facilities, ballistic missile factories and military commanders on Friday at the start of what it warned would be a prolonged operation to prevent Tehran from building an atomic weapon. Iran has promised a harsh response.

Shortly after trading ended on Friday, Iranian missiles hit buildings in Tel Aviv, Israel, according to multiple media reports. Explosions were also heard in southern Israel.

US President Donald Trump urged Iran to make a deal over its nuclear program to put an end to the "next already planned attacks."

The National Iranian Oil Refining and Distribution Company said oil refining and storage facilities had not been damaged and continued to operate.

Iran, a member of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), currently produces around 3.3 million barrels per day (bpd), and exports over 2 million bpd of oil and fuel. Spare capacity among OPEC and its allies, including Russia, to pump more oil to offset any disruption is roughly equivalent to Iran's output, according to analysts and OPEC watchers.

The latest developments have also stoked concerns about disruptions to the Strait of Hormuz, a vital shipping passage.

"Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Iraq and Iran are wholly locked into one tiny passage for exports," said Rabobank in a note, regarding the Strait.

About a fifth of the world's total oil consumption passes through the strait, or some 18 to 19 million barrels per day (bpd) of oil, condensate and fuel.

"Israeli action has so far avoided Iranian energy infrastructure, including Kharg Island, the terminal responsible for an estimated 90% of Iran’s crude oil exports," said

Ben Hoff, head of commodity research at Societe Generale.

"This raises the possibility that any further escalation could follow an 'energy-for-energy' logic where an attack on one side’s oil infrastructure might invite a retaliatory strike on the other’s," Hoff said.

Iran could pay a heavy price for blockage of the Strait of Hormuz, analysts said on Friday.

"Iran's economy heavily relies on the free passage of goods and vessels through the seaway, as its oil exports are entirely sea-based. Finally, cutting off the Strait of Hormuz would be counterproductive to Iran's relationship with its sole oil customer, China, said analysts with JP Morgan.

Money managers raised their net long U.S. crude futures and options positions in the week to June 10, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) said on Friday. The speculator group raise its combined futures and options position in New York and London by 15,157 contracts to 121,911 during the period.

Baker Hughes said the number of U.S. oil and natural gas rigs fell for seventh week in a row with the total count down by 35 rigs or 6% below this time last year.

The oil rig count fell by three to 439 this week, its lowest since October 2021, while gas rigs slipped by one to 113.

In other markets, stocks dived and there was a rush to safe havens such as gold, the U.S. dollar and Swiss franc.


IMF-backed tariff reforms raise concerns for Pakistan’s auto industry despite rising car sales

Updated 14 June 2025
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IMF-backed tariff reforms raise concerns for Pakistan’s auto industry despite rising car sales

  • Government aims to cut overall tariffs by 4% over five years to promote export-led growth
  • Industry stakeholders warn removing regulatory duties could hurt local manufacturers

KARACHI: While Pakistan’s automobile manufacturers are still parsing the government’s new financial plan, industry experts on Friday said proposed International Monetary Fund (IMF)-mandated reforms, such as the rationalization of trade tariffs, could erode long-standing protections for local industry.

Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb said the government plans to reduce the overall tariff regime by more than four percent over the next five years to steer the country toward an export-led growth model in line with the IMF program.

Under the National Tariff Policy 2025-30, the government aims to abolish additional customs duties (ACDs), regulatory duties (RDs) and provisions under the Fifth Schedule of the Customs Act, 1969. The goal is to simplify Pakistan’s tariff structure by reducing it to four duty slabs ranging from 0 to 15%.

The IMF-backed reforms are expected to lower Pakistan’s weighted average tariff by 3.2% points to 7.4%, said Shafiq Ahmed Shaikh, an automobile industry expert and former general manager of Pak Suzuki Motor Company Ltd.

“These tariff cuts will reduce protection to the auto industry along with reduction of the cost of vehicles,” he said. “It is a very sensitive point for industry… [and] must be discussed with the stakeholders for good, long-term and acceptable solutions.”

PARA-TARIFFS

Abdul Waheed Khan, spokesperson for the Pakistan Automotive Manufacturers Association (PAMA), said regulatory duties are designed to protect local industry and discourage unnecessary imports.

“The ACD too should gradually be abolished because such para-tariffs are not good,” he told Arab News.

Para-tariffs are taxes and duties levied in addition to standard customs tariffs, such as ACDs and RDs. While often introduced to curb imports or raise revenues, they are controversial because they can create complexity, raise costs and distort trade policy.

Pakistan’s federal budget also proposes raising the sales tax on 850cc small vehicles to 18% to bring parity between petrol or diesel-powered cars and hybrids.

“This would increase the cost of vehicles for middle income groups,” said Khan of PAMA, which represents the local operations of Honda, Suzuki, Toyota and 16 other manufacturers.

“This is not good for our Made-in-Pakistan policy as small vehicles will go costlier at a time when people’s disposable incomes are already not so good,” he continued, declining further comment on the budget.

CARBON LEVY

Pakistan’s automobile market, long dominated by Japanese firms like Honda, Toyota and Suzuki, has recently seen new entrants, particularly Chinese and Korean electric vehicle (EV) manufacturers like BYD, SAIC and Kia, operating through joint ventures.

“The existing industry will face good competition from EV and as we know, the future is of Electric Vehicles specially from China,” Shaikh, the automobile industry expert, told Arab News.

As one of the countries most affected by climate change, Pakistan also plans to introduce a carbon levy of up to Rs10 ($0.04) per liter on petrol, diesel and furnace oil over the next two years.

The move is intended “to discourage excessive use of fossil fuels and provide financial resources for climate change and green energy programs,” Finance Minister Aurangzeb said in his budget speech earlier this week.

Shaikh dismissed suggestions that the levy would raise car prices, arguing that consumers would instead begin shifting to EVs.

Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif also announced plans to impose differential taxes on the sale and import of vehicles based on engine size to promote the adoption of two- and three-wheeled EVs and reduce oil imports and pollution.

Syed Asif Ahmed, general manager of marketing at MG Motors, said the “industry is seeking clarity on recent budget.”

He noted that while the finance bill was silent on hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs), social media was abuzz with reports that the government may raise the sales tax from eight % to 18 % next year.

“If true, this will jeopardize the huge investment done by almost all automakers on HEV,” Ahmed said.

The MG Motors executive also warned against reduced regulatory duties on used cars and commercial imports under schemes meant for returning expatriates.

“[The] used cars importers are abusing the gift, baggage and transfer of residence scheme for commercial trading,” Ahmed said.

CAR SALES

While stakeholders have voiced concerns over policy shifts, vehicle sales continue to show signs of recovery.

Passenger car sales rose 31% in May to 11,119 units, while cumulative sales from July to May in the outgoing fiscal year increased 32% year-on-year to 94,388 units, according to PAMA data.

“[The] growth is supported by a more stable macroeconomic environment, lower interest rates, easing inflation and improving consumer sentiment,” said Myesha Sohail, an analyst at Topline Securities Ltd., in a recent research note.

Sohail expects this momentum to continue into the next fiscal year, driven by lower interest rates and a pipeline of new models across combustion, hybrid and plug-in hybrid categories.


Plant-based diets transform Saudi agriculture and fuel Vision 2030

Updated 13 June 2025
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Plant-based diets transform Saudi agriculture and fuel Vision 2030

RIYADH: A green revolution is taking root in Saudi Arabia as plant-based diets gain popularity, reshaping the Kingdom’s agricultural landscape and creating new opportunities for local farmers.

This growing shift toward plant-based living not only reflects global dietary trends but also represents a strategic step toward economic diversification and environmental sustainability — key pillars of Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 initiative.

The agricultural sector has shown impressive growth, with the Kingdom’s agricultural gross domestic product reaching a record SR114 billion ($30.3 billion) in 2024, according to PwC. 

Despite this progress, Saudi Arabia remains a net importer of both food and animal feed, highlighting ongoing challenges in achieving national food security.

Phil Webster is a partner at Arthur D. Little, where he leads our consumer goods, retail and agriculture network. Supplied

Experts say the solution lies in innovation. Phil Webster, partner at consulting firm Arthur D. Little and head of its consumer goods, retail, and agriculture division, emphasized the potential of alternative crops and supporting technologies. According to him, the greatest opportunity in agriculture lies in embracing innovation — from alternative crops to smart technologies — to meet rising demand, reduce costs, and enhance food sovereignty.

As plant-based trends continue to flourish, Saudi Arabia’s evolving agricultural strategy may well position the Kingdom as a regional leader in sustainable food production.

“Plant-based diets are often inherently more sustainable — production of meat and dairy for example is one of the most land and water intensive activities on the planet, as well as a major contributor to global warming due to land use change and methane emissions from ruminant animals,” Webster told Arab News.

He added that plant-based diets necessitate consumers to seek non-meat protein alternatives, creating opportunities to focus more on conventional high-protein crops such as chickpeas, lentils, and quinoa, which naturally exhibit greater tolerance to drought and salinity compared to many other arable crops.

The ADL partner noted that crops such as lentils can play a key role in improving meat alternatives, including products like lentil burgers, with ongoing efforts aimed at increasing their resilience to harsh environmental conditions.

Webster also pointed to the growing momentum behind vertical farming, which is attracting more than $1 billion in annual venture capital investment. This method supports year-round, high-quality food production in compact urban environments by utilizing advanced lighting, irrigation, and automation technologies — enabling crops to be grown virtually anywhere with minimal risk of pests and diseases.

He said: “Finally, a rise in ‘lab grown meat’ has seen a temporary boom in investment, but then a subsequent decline due to the costs of production and also consumer appetite when it comes to taste and mouthfeel of unfamiliar products.” 

According to consultancy firm Strategy& Middle East, businesses across Saudi Arabia’s agricultural sector are increasingly adopting integrated, technology-driven supply chain models to meet the growing demand for plant-based and locally sourced products.

Roger Rabbat, partner, Strategy& Middle East. Supplied

Roger Rabbat, partner at Strategy&, highlighted that major agribusinesses such as NADEC are leading this shift by implementing controlled-environment farming in partnership with Pure Harvest. This approach enables the year-round production of pesticide-free, locally grown vegetables, enhancing both food quality and supply chain resilience.

“Startups have also been active to adapt to these trends as well, with companies like Red Sea Farms collaborating with Saudia Airlines to supply sustainable food to customers by levering RSF’s innovative solutions around irrigation and greenhouse technology,” Rabbat told Arab News.

Supply chain

Providing sustainable, locally sourced food not only strengthens national food security but also supports public health initiatives — including biofortification, which enhances the nutritional value of food without requiring major changes to traditional eating habits.

Patrick Wall, a medical doctor, veterinarian, and professor of public health at University College Dublin, noted that Saudi poultry producers, in collaboration with King Abdulaziz University, are exploring the use of algal oil in animal feed as a way to address nutrient deficiencies and improve overall public health outcomes.

Patrick Wall is a medical doctor, veterinarian, and Professor of Public Health at University College Dublin, Ireland. Supplied

“Microalgae are tiny aquatic organisms that, while not technically classified as plants, are photosynthetic and can be sustainably cultivated for use in both animal feed and dietary supplements,” Wall, who is also a former chair of the European Food Safety Authority, told Arab News.

Wall emphasized that fortifying poultry with Omega-3 DHA could play a significant role in combating heart disease and diabetes in Saudi Arabia, which ranks among the world’s largest poultry consumers.

He explained that the human body cannot produce sufficient Omega-3 fatty acids on its own, making dietary intake essential. However, fish — a primary source of Omega-3s — is often avoided by many Saudis, particularly younger generations, leading to nutritional gaps that enriched poultry could help address.

“Tanmiah and Arabian Farms are the first companies in the region to produce DHA (Docosahexaenoic Acid) enriched poultry and eggs and they helped King Abdulaziz University to deliver this research. They are showing that the private sector is ready to engage in food innovation that benefits both public health and business growth,” Wall said.

Rabbat, from Strategy&, noted that the record agricultural GDP achieved by the Kingdom in 2024 is being driven by ecosystem-wide innovation, supported by the introduction of new products and technologies such as precision irrigation and vertical farming.

“SADAFCO has launched Saudia Oat Milk, the Kingdom’s first locally produced oat based milk, to meet the rising demand for plant-based alternatives. Mishkat Agritech, based in Jeddah, leverages hydroponic greenhouse and vertical farming techniques to reduce water usage by up to 90 percent compared to traditional agriculture,” he said.

The Strategy& Middle East partner added: “These innovations directly support Vision 2030 by advancing food security, reducing import dependence, enabling sustainable resource use, and fostering a resilient, tech-driven economy.”

Food system innovation 

There is no doubt that Vision 2030 places strong emphasis on building a vibrant society, enhancing quality of life, diversifying the economy, and empowering the private sector in Saudi Arabia.

In the agri-food sector, this vision translates into prioritizing public health and nutrition, developing consumer-friendly products, strengthening food security, and advancing sustainable food production.

From the perspective of Arthur D. Little, innovation in sustainable food systems is a cornerstone of this national transformation. One particularly promising area is the use of functional ingredients to boost the nutritional profile of everyday foods.

Webster highlighted that Saudi scientists are working to reduce the country’s dependence on imported animal feed by cultivating microalgae locally. Researchers at King Abdullah University of Science and Technology are leading efforts to develop seawater-adapted microalgae strains and are investigating the potential for algae farming on the salt flats along the Arabian Gulf.

Projects like TOPIAN, part of NEOM Food Co., are showcasing how advanced, climate-resilient infrastructure can bolster local food production.

TOPIAN recently inaugurated its first controlled-environment glasshouses, engineered to grow fruits and vegetables year-round. These facilities also serve as testing grounds for evaluating the viability of various crops across different production systems.

“Cooling efficiency, radiation control, solar integration, and water conservation are among the key innovations being explored to enable consistent domestic supply of crops such as lettuce, tomatoes, and strawberries,” Webster said. 

The ADL partner acknowledged that while the full impact of these innovations on national food system productivity is still emerging, their long-term potential is substantial.

From Strategy&’s perspective, Rabbat emphasized that the growing “plant-based prosperity” trend is steering Saudi agriculture toward sustainable, technology-driven models designed to address water scarcity, climate challenges, and increasing consumer demand.


State-led startup momentum poised for sustainable growth under Vision 2030

Updated 13 June 2025
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State-led startup momentum poised for sustainable growth under Vision 2030

RIYADH: Amid a record-breaking surge in venture funding and a wave of regulatory reforms, Saudi Arabia is drawing global attention for its ambitious push to build a vibrant startup economy. 

The Kingdom’s entrepreneurial landscape is being reshaped thanks to the work of Saudi Venture Capital, a subsidiary of the National Development Fund, and incubation support from the Small and Medium Enterprises General Authority, known as Monsha’at.

With government capital underwriting much of the early momentum, the challenge now lies in translating that support into private-sector-driven sustainability, with some market observers cautioning against confusing rapid growth with long-term sustainability. 

Philip Bahoshy, CEO of MAGNiTT. Supplied

“The long-term sustainability of this support will depend on continued private-sector participation and market-driven investment flows,” Philip Bahoshy, CEO of MAGNiTT, told Arab News in an interview. 

He accepted that sovereign-led investment vehicles have played a foundational part in catalyzing early-stage innovation, saying: “Saudi initiatives like SVC and Monsha’at have played a critical role in expanding access to capital, fostering entrepreneurship, and developing the broader startup ecosystem.” 

Bahoshy cited SVC’s strategy of acting as a fund-of-funds as a key mechanism for increasing market liquidity, alongside new instruments such as venture debt and private equity.

These tools are designed not only to finance startups but to build institutional depth across the capital stack. 

Beyond financial capital, the initiatives have emphasized ecosystem development through mentorship and education. 

“Another key pillar is their focus on education — whether they be in-person events or the content they share through sponsorships like MAGNiTT — to educate the market,” Bahoshy added.

Monsha’at, he added, has expanded its support through physical incubators and SME-focused regulatory facilitation, helping reduce barriers for company formation and early operations. 

Capital drives diversification

For Said Murad, senior partner at Global Ventures, these efforts are not just supportive — they are catalytic. 

“SVC has invested in 54 private capital funds that invested in over 800 startups and SMEs via $3 billion in AUM (assets under management). This has resulted in entrepreneurship growth and economic diversification,” the venture capitalist told Arab News in an interview. 

Said Murad, senior partner at Global Ventures. Supplied

Murad added that this flow of capital has had knock-on effects beyond startups, helping to “drive jobs and economic growth” across sectors and enabling venture firms like his to back “emerging technologies across platforms built by exceptional founders.” 

In assessing sustainability, the venture community is looking for more than just headline investment totals. 

Bahoshy pointed to a broadening of sector focus as a positive indicator. “Indicators of sustainable growth include diversified sector investment, rising follow-on funding rounds, and an increasing number of successful exits,” he said. 

MAGNiTT’s recent report with the National Technology Development Program, he noted, shows Saudi Arabia outperforming the wider Middle East and North Africa region on follow-on investment metrics — evidence of startups moving successfully through the funding pipeline. 

Murad emphasized deal activity and capital market maturation. “Achieving a record number of deals in 2024 (178), which was 31 percent of MENA’s total deal number, reflects positively on activity,” he said. 

He also cited the growing pipeline of exits and public listings, saying: “More than 50 IPO applications are currently under review by the regulator and the exchange, showing further momentum in the Saudi market.” 

The increase in mergers and acquisitions transactions — up 17.4 percent year on year — suggests the market is entering a phase of consolidation and liquidity, which is critical for long-term investor confidence, he stated.  

Still, the pace and scale of state-backed capital injections have prompted some caution. 

“Concerns about government-driven funding inflating valuations remain,” Bahoshy warned. 

He stressed the need to monitor startup profitability, organic market demand, and the inflow of non-government capital to guard against artificial inflation.

In his view, sustainable ecosystems are those where “startups demonstrate strong unit economics” and attract both domestic and international private capital. 

Murad agreed that macroeconomic indicators must be matched with real operational progress. 

“From an investor’s perspective, distinguishing between real market development and an overheated ecosystem requires a mix of macroeconomic signals and sector-specific insight,” he said. 

Those metrics include gross domestic product growth, employment contribution, and non-oil revenue gains. 

At a sectoral level, fintech remains a bellwether. “In fintech, for example, sustained growth in digital payment adoption, rising financial inclusion, and tangible collaboration between fintech and incumbent banks signal structural integration rather than hype,” Murad explained. 

On the structural side, Saudi startups face a different set of challenges as they scale regionally and globally. 

While local capital and infrastructure offer a strong base, market fragmentation across the MENA region presents real operational hurdles. 

“Key challenges include regulatory differences, talent mobility constraints, and fragmented market demand,” Bahoshy said. 

In particular, sectors such as fintech and health tech often require jurisdiction-specific compliance, which can stretch the resources of scaling companies. 

Murad underscored the importance of localization and talent strategy in overcoming those barriers. 

“Startups operating in sectors such as fintech or health tech may find it particularly difficult to navigate differing compliance standards and approval timelines,” he said, adding that hiring local talent is often critical. 

“Our portfolio company Rabbit, a hyperlocal e-commerce platform, has made the recruitment of local employees a key part of its Saudi market entry strategy,” said Murad. 

Despite these headwinds, both Bahoshy and Murad see a strategic shift toward long-term market integration. 

“Saudi startups are increasingly positioning themselves as regional leaders within MENA,” Bahoshy said, with many expanding into the UAE, Egypt, and other Gulf Cooperation Council markets. 

Murad added that founders are building their businesses “with scalability in mind,” and are “leveraging the Kingdom’s strong capital base, infrastructure, and Vision 2030 momentum to compete across borders.” 

Next growth phase

Ultimately, the next phase for Saudi Arabia’s startup ecosystem will depend on how effectively it balances public ambition with private execution. 

While Vision 2030 provides a powerful narrative and institutional backing, sustained impact will be measured by market maturity, depth of innovation, and the ability of startups to solve real problems across borders and sectors. 

As Saudi Arabia’s startup ecosystem transitions from state-backed momentum to market maturity, investors and policymakers are shifting their focus from funding volume to long-term value creation. 

This next phase will test whether startups can scale beyond subsidized growth and become embedded drivers of innovation across sectors and borders. 

“What often matters most is on-the-ground visibility: how embedded startups are in daily life, how their products are solving real problems, and how much institutional trust they’ve earned,” said Murad. 

That visibility — whether in finance, healthcare, or logistics — is increasingly seen as a litmus test for lasting impact. 

Startups that succeed in the Kingdom are now expected to meet regulatory standards, address market needs, and contribute to non-oil GDP. 

Murad pointed to the fintech sector, where startups are not only attracting investment but also becoming integral to the financial system through collaboration with banks and the adoption of digital infrastructure. 

He noted that alignment with national priorities, like those in the Financial Sector Development Programme, helps reinforce sector-wide progress. 

Regional expansion remains an important strategic goal, but the road to cross-border growth is uneven. 

Bahoshy pointed out that as Saudi startups expand into nearby markets, they encounter challenges such as varying regulations, limited movement of skilled talent, and inconsistent consumer demand across the region.

To mitigate these challenges, firms are increasingly investing in local knowledge and partnerships rather than applying one-size-fits-all models.


Oil Updates — prices soar more than 9% after Israel strikes Iran, rattling investors 

Updated 13 June 2025
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Oil Updates — prices soar more than 9% after Israel strikes Iran, rattling investors 

SINGAPORE: Oil prices surged more than 9 percent on Friday, hitting their highest in almost five months after Israel struck Iran, dramatically escalating tensions in the Middle East and raising worries about disrupted oil supplies. 

Brent crude futures jumped $6.29, or 9.07 percent, to $75.65 a barrel by 06:15 a.m. Saudi time after hitting an intraday high of $78.50, the highest since Jan. 27. US West Texas Intermediate crude was up $6.43, or 9.45 percent, at $74.47 a barrel after hitting a high of $77.62, the loftiest since Jan. 21. 

Friday’s gains were the largest intraday moves for both contracts since 2022 after Russia invaded Ukraine, causing energy prices to spike. 

Israel said it targeted Iran’s nuclear facilities, ballistic missile factories and military commanders on Friday at the start of what it warned would be a prolonged operation to prevent Tehran from building an atomic weapon. 

“This has elevated geopolitical uncertainty significantly and requires the oil market to price in a larger risk premium for any potential supply disruptions,” ING analysts led by Warren Patterson said in a note. 

Several oil traders in Singapore said it was still too early to say if the strike will affect Middle East oil shipments as it will depend on how Iran retaliates and if the US will intervene. 

“It’s too early to tell but I think the market is worried about shutting off of the Strait of Hormuz,” one of the traders said. 

MST Marquee senior energy analyst Saul Kavonic said the conflict would need to escalate to the point of Iranian retaliation on oil infrastructure in the region before oil supply is materially impacted. 

He added that Iran could hinder up to 20 million barrels per day of oil supply via attacks on infrastructure or limiting passage through the Strait of Hormuz, in an extreme scenario. 

Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said Israel will receive “harsh punishment” following Friday’s attack that he said killed several military commanders. 

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio on Thursday called Israel’s strikes against Iran a “unilateral action” and said Washington was not involved while also urging Tehran not to target US interests or personnel in the region. 

“Iran has announced an emergency and is preparing to retaliate, which raises the risk of not just disruptions but of contagion in other neighbouring oil producing nations too,” said Priyanka Sachdeva, senior market analyst at Phillip Nova. 

“Although Trump has shown reluctance to participate, US involvement could further raise concerns.” 

In other markets, stocks dived in early Asian trade, led by a selloff in US futures, while investors scurried to safe havens such as gold and the Swiss franc.