LONDON: He’s failed to meet key pledges, hit an opinion poll low, and even cramped the style of a popular Adidas shoe: Britain’s beleaguered Conservative leader Rishi Sunak appears destined to lose a looming general election.
Two tax cuts and a slightly improving economy have failed to boost Sunak’s political fortunes, while criticism from ex-prime minister Boris Johnson and speculation over Brexit figurehead Nigel Farage’s intentions are adding to his woes.
Political scientist Rob Ford reckoned Sunak has been left looking “hapless” in the face of seemingly unstoppable political momentum away from his ruling Tories.
“When the herd moves, it moves. There’s not much you can do,” he told AFP.
Sunak, 43, has yet to announce the date of the election. He is expected to call it for October or November but is legally allowed to wait until January at the latest.
Surveys overwhelmingly show that Britons want an end to 14 years of Tory rule, and nothing that Sunak has done since he became PM 18 months ago appears to be changing their minds.
A YouGov poll released this month found that the Conservatives would win just 155 seats in the UK parliament, down from the 365 that they won under Johnson at the last election in December 2019.
Keir Starmer’s opposition Labour Party would win 403 seats, the same survey found, leading to a whopping 154-seat majority.
“Right now, it’s very difficult to see how the Conservatives remain in government after the next election simply because of the scale of shift they need,” said Keiran Pedley, director of politics at polling firm Ipsos.
Sunak succeeded Liz Truss in October 2022 after Tory MPs forced her out following a disastrous 49 days in office, during which her mini-budget spooked financial markets, sank the pound and sent mortgage payments skywards.
She had followed Johnson, who himself had been defenestrated by colleagues following a series of scandals, including over illegal parties in Downing Street during Covid-19 lockdowns.
While the turmoil of the two previous administrations has hamstrung Sunak, political analysts say he has also contributed to his own plight by falling short on promises and failing to connect with voters.
Despite promising to, he has not stopped migrants arriving from France on small boats. National Health Service waiting lists are higher than when he took office. Economic growth is stagnant, although inflation has more than halved.
Sunak has also tried a number of leadership and policy resets that have fallen flat, including watering down carbon net zero commitments in a pitch to motorists and recently talking about extremism.
The rightward tilt comes as the fringe Reform UK party threatens to deprive the Conservatives of key seats, particularly if Farage stands for them as he has teased.
“(Sunak has) been trying to find this magic wand or silver bullet to turn things around but at the moment none of it seems to be moving the dial,” Pedley told AFP.
An Ipsos poll published in March found that 58 percent of voters view the Conservatives unfavorably, the highest percentage this parliament. Only 19 percent view them favorably.
The survey gave Sunak a net favorability rating of minus 38, the lowest of any politician included.
Critics often accuse the wealthy ex-financier of being out of touch with average Britons.
“He is a combination of being rather awkward and nerdy, and then if challenged he always sounds really irritable,” Ford, politics professor at Manchester University, said.
Sunak is striving to revive his party’s fortunes, traversing the country to meet voters as rumors swirl that a disastrous showing in local elections on May 2 could spark a leadership challenge.
He can’t seem to catch a break, though.
This week, Johnson slammed Sunak’s proposed comprehensive smoking ban as “nuts,” while Sunak’s spokesperson had to deny that the PM was preparing to run an AI fund in the event of election defeat.
Sunak even offered a “fulsome apology to the Samba community” after photographs of him wearing the Adidas trainers sparked headlines like: “Eight trainers to wear now that Rishi has killed Sambas.”
“There’s a kind of a doom loop that politicians can get into where they’re unpopular,” explained Ford.
“The media know they’re unpopular so everything they do is reported negatively, which further reinforces their unpopularity.”
Political observers say polls usually narrow as voting day nears and suspect liberal Conservatives might ultimately stick with the party to reduce the size of a Labour win and ensure the Tories are an effective opposition.
“Everything at this point really is becoming about damage limitation,” said Ford.
Unpopular Sunak in ‘doom loop’ as UK PM stares at election defeat
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Unpopular Sunak in ‘doom loop’ as UK PM stares at election defeat
- Surveys overwhelmingly show that Britons want an end to 14 years of Tory rule, and nothing that Sunak has done since he became PM 18 months ago appears to be changing their minds
Dutch court weighs a lawsuit against arms sales to Israel
- Opening the case at the court in The Hague, Judge Sonja Hoekstra noted: “It is important to underline that the Dutch State does not contest the gravity of the situation in Gaza, nor is the status of the West Bank”
THE HAGUE: Pro-Palestinian groups took the Dutch state to court on Friday, urging a halt to arms exports to Israel and accusing the government of failing to prevent what they termed a genocide in Gaza.
The NGOs argued that Israel is breaking international law in Gaza and the West Bank, invoking, among others, the 1948 UN Genocide Convention.
“Israel is guilty of genocide and apartheid” and “is using Dutch weapons to wage war,” said Wout Albers, a lawyer representing the NGOs.
“Dutch weapons are killing children every day in Palestine, including my family,” said Ahmed Abofoul, a legal adviser to Al-Haq, one of the groups involved in the suit. Israel furiously denies accusations of genocide as it presses on with the offensive in Gaza.
Opening the case at the court in The Hague, Judge Sonja Hoekstra noted: “It is important to underline that the Dutch State does not contest the gravity of the situation in Gaza, nor is the status of the West Bank.”
“Today is about finding out what is legally in play and what can be expected of the state if the state can be expected to do more or act differently than it is currently acting,” she added.
She acknowledged this was a “sensitive case,” saying: “It’s a whole legal debate.”
The lawyer for the Dutch State, Reimer Veldhuis, said the Netherlands has been applying European laws in force for arms exports.
Veldhuis argued the case should be tossed out.
“It is unlikely that the minister responsible will grant an arms export license to Israel that would contribute to the Israeli army’s activities in Gaza or the West Bank,” said Veldhuis.
The case comes one day after another court based in The Hague, the International Criminal Court, issued arrest warrants for Israel’s prime minister and former defense minister.
How COP29 outcome may impact countries most affected by climate change
- UN Climate Change Conference in Baku brought together policymakers, researchers and environmentalists from 200 countries
- Discussions covered energy transition, climate finance, loss and damage funding and environmental cost of geopolitical tensions
BAKU, Azerbaijan: The 2024 United Nations Climate Change Conference concluded in the capital of Azerbaijan on Friday with climate activists, world leaders and investors reflecting on climate change’s global impacts and the urgent need for actionable solutions.
This year’s event emphasized financing mechanisms, particularly to alleviate the suffering of vulnerable nations, and especially the developing countries most affected by climate change.
COP29 — the 29th Conference of the Parties under the United Nations climate organization UNFCCC — ran from Nov. 11 to 22 and brought together policymakers, researchers, and environmentalists from 200 countries.
A dominant theme was energy transition, as fossil fuel emissions remain the biggest driver of global warming.
The UN reports that burning coal, oil, and gas accounts for more than 75 percent of global greenhouse gas emissions and roughly 90 percent of all carbon dioxide emissions.
Policymakers argued that reducing reliance on traditional fuels and adopting modern energy solutions could significantly shrink the global carbon footprint and bring the world closer to net-zero targets.
The University of Exeter’s Global Carbon Budget recently projected total CO2 emissions to rise from 40.6 billion metric tons in 2023 to 41.6 billion in 2024.
Sharing his perspective on the COP29 negotiations and the change he hopes to see, climate activist Philip McMaster, known on social media as SustainaClaus, told Arab News he is campaigning for a a healthier environment for children.
“The message of SustainaClaus is ‘Make childhood great again.’ Why? Because we all had a childhood before,” he said on the sidelines of the conference. “It was either great or not, but it was a very important period of time, and that is what these negotiations should be about: how we make the world a better place for the next generations.”
He added: “I hope to see global change.”
DID YOUKNOW?
• In the first week of COP29, as a step to foster sustainable energy, Saudi Arabia signed an executive program with Azerbaijan, Uzbekistan, and Kazakhstan to strengthen collaboration on renewable energy development.
• The COP29 agenda included energy transition, finance, urbanization and Article 6.
• Climate finance was the main topic discussed in Baku, along with the need to raise funds for vulnerable nations.
Military activity also emerged as a significant environmental threat. Olga Lermak, communications lead at Greencubator, a Ukraine-based cleantech accelerator, noted the ecological devastation caused by war.
“War creates a climate crisis not just where it happens; it pollutes air, water, and land,” she said.
Ukraine accounts for 35 percent of Europe’s biodiversity, including 70,000 plant and animal species, according to the World Wide Fund for Nature. Among its endangered animals are the sandy blind mole-rat, the Russian desman, and the saker falcon.
The country’s ongoing conflict with Russia has caused significant damage to that biodiversity, according to Lermak.
“I hope that the negotiations held here bring great solutions, something that will help us to move forward,” she said. “I hope it is not just conversations, not just talking, but real action after this.”
Opinion
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Another key issue debated at COP29 was loss and damage funding — addressing “unavoided” damage caused by climate change in the most vulnerable countries as well as “unavoidable” damage such as that caused by rising sea levels. Investment in emissions reduction was one of the key solutions put forward for dealing with unavoided damage.
Researchers from the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis and the Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change estimate that the loss and damage needs of vulnerable countries will amount to between $130 billion and $940 billion in 2025 alone.
Gloria Bulus, team lead at Nigeria’s Bridge that Gap Initiative, emphasized that beyond highlighting loss and damage, there must also be a focus on delivering investment and implementing concrete solutions.
“We are expecting a lot to be (invested) in terms of the loss and damage, so that it goes beyond the speeches,” she said.
Highlighting some of the pressing environmental challenges her country is facing, Bulus expressed her hope for “fair” negotiations.
“Negotiations have been very slow for us,” she said. “What we want is action. What we want is an outcome that favors people, where we have renewable energy transition.”
Among other steps, COP29 promised to secure “the highest ambition outcome possible,” proposing that wealthier countries contribute $250 billion annually to developing nations to support their efforts in tackling climate change.
UK car wash owners trafficked thousands of people from Middle East to Europe
- Migrants from Syria, Iraq, Iran offered different tiers of service
- Dilshad Shamo and Ali Khdir trafficked 100 people per week in trucks, ships and by plane
LONDON: Thousands of people from the Middle East were trafficked into Europe through a vast people smuggling network based out of a British car wash.
In an operation that at times resembled a travel agency, people from Syria, Iraq and Iran were offered different tiers of service to be smuggled into Europe by various routes.
Two men pleaded guilty in a UK court on Friday to charges related to their roles in the people smuggling ring.
The UK’s National Crime Agency said Dilshad Shamo, 41, and Ali Khdir, 40, operated from the unlikely location of a car wash in Caerphilly, a town in Wales.
They were arrested in April 2023 after they had been placed under surveillance as part of an investigation that found they were trafficking about 100 people a week over a period of two years, the BBC reported.
The men used messaging and social media apps to advertise their services with videos from people who had made the journeys.
One video shows a man hidden in the back of a truck with other migrants.
“Lorry route agreement, crossing agreement with the knowledge of driver,” he says. “Here we have men, women and children. Thank God the route was easy and good.”
Another video shows a family traveling by plane. “We are very happy … this is the visa, may God bless him, we are really happy,” the migrant says.
Shamo and Khdir offered three tiers of service, the lowest being smuggling people into Europe by foot or vehicle; the next by cargo ships or yachts; and the highest level arranged travel by plane.
The smuggling routes went through Turkiye, Belarus, Moldova and Bosnia and ended in Italy, Croatia, Romania, Bulgaria, Slovenia, Germany and France. The NCA said many of the migrants continued to the UK.
Payment was made using informal “hawala” money transfers through brokers based in Iraq and Istanbul.
Once a deposit was made, Shamo and Khdir would receive a message and arrange for the migrants to be transported by their specified route or timeframe. The two men used WhatsApp to communicate with people smugglers across Europe.
The NCA said they were part of a larger organized crime group and could have made hundreds of thousands or millions of pounds that is unlikely to be recovered, the BBC reported.
“Ali Khdir and Dilshad Shamo were leading a double life,” NCA Branch Commander Derek Evans said. “While on the surface they seemed to be operating a successful car wash, they were actually part of a prolific people smuggling group moving migrants across Europe and taking thousands in payment.
“We worked painstakingly to piece together their movements to prove their important roles in a group, from advertising their services through videos to boasting of successful trips on messaging groups.”
The UK’s Minister for Border Security and Asylum Angela Eagle said criminals like Khdir and Shamo put countless lives at risk by smuggling vulnerable people in a “shameless attempt to make cash.”
She added: “We are taking action against the people smuggling gangs and will stop at nothing to dismantle their networks and bring justice to the system.”
Shamo and Khdir pleaded guilty 10 days into their trial at Cardiff Crown Court and will be sentenced at a later date.
UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer made smashing people smuggling gangs a key pledge of his election campaign earlier this year.
He has vowed to treat traffickers like terrorists and announced a new Border Security Command with additional powers to track human traffickers and shut down their bank accounts.
Politicians in the EU are battling to stem public anger at rising immigration with more than 380,000 illegal border crossings made into the EU in 2023.
Many fear that if conflicts in the Middle East escalate, Europe could face a steep rise in illegal migration similar to 2015 at the height of the Syrian Civil War.
Putin says Russia will keep testing new missile in combat
- The Kremlin leader described the missile’s first use as a successful test, and said more would follow
- “We will continue these tests, including in combat conditions, depending on the situation and the nature of the security threats that are created for Russia,” he said
MOSCOW: President Vladimir Putin said on Friday that Russia would keep testing its new Oreshnik hypersonic missile in combat and had a stock ready for use.
Putin was speaking a day after Russia fired the new intermediate-range weapon into Ukraine for the first time, a step he said was prompted by Ukraine’s use of US ballistic missiles and British cruise missiles to hit Russia.
The Kremlin leader described the missile’s first use as a successful test, and said more would follow.
“We will continue these tests, including in combat conditions, depending on the situation and the nature of the security threats that are created for Russia,” he said in televised comments to defense officials and missile developers.
“Moreover, we have a stock of such products, a stock of such systems ready for use.”
A US official, however, said the weapon Russia used was an experimental one. The official said Russia has a limited number of them and that this is not a capability that Russia is able to regularly deploy on the battlefield.
Intermediate missiles have a range of 3,000-5,500 km (1,860-3,415 miles), which would enable them to strike anywhere in Europe or the western United States from Russia.
Security experts said the novel feature of the Oreshnik missile was that it carried multiple warheads capable of simultaneously striking different targets — something usually associated with longer-range intercontinental ballistic missiles designed to carry nuclear warheads.
Ukraine said the missile reached a top speed of more than 13,000 kph (8,000 mph) and took about 15 minutes to reach its target from its launch.
The firing of the missile was part of a sharp rise in tensions this week as both Ukraine and Russia have struck each other’s territory with increasingly potent weapons.
Moscow says that by giving the green light for Ukraine to fire Western missiles deep inside Russia, the US and its allies are entering into direct conflict with Russia. On Tuesday, Putin approved policy changes that lowered the threshold for Russia to use nuclear weapons in response to an attack with conventional weapons.
SEVERE ESCALATION
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Russia’s use of the new missile amounted to “a clear and severe escalation” in the war and called for strong worldwide condemnation. He said Ukraine was working on developing new types of air defense to counter “new risks.”
The Kremlin said the firing of the Oreshnik was a warning to the West against taking further “reckless” actions and decisions in support of Ukraine.
The Oreshnik was fired with conventional, not nuclear warheads. Putin said it was not a strategic nuclear weapon but its striking power and accuracy meant that its impact would be comparable, “especially when used in a massive group and in combination with other high-precision long-range systems.”
He said the missile was incapable of being shot down by an enemy.
“I will add that there is no countermeasure to such a missile, no means of intercepting it, in the world today. And I will emphasize once again that we will continue testing this newest system. It is necessary to establish serial production,” he said.
WHO keeps mpox at highest alert level
- “The decision was based on the rising number and continuing geographic spread of cases, operational challenges in the field,” WHO said
- The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) is the country hardest hit by the outbreak, followed by Burundi and Nigeria
GENEVA: The World Health Organization said Friday it had decided to keep its alert for the mpox epidemic at the highest level, as the number of cases and countries affected rises.
“The decision was based on the rising number and continuing geographic spread of cases, operational challenges in the field, and the need to mount and sustain a cohesive response across countries and partners,” it said in a statement.
“The WHO Director-General, agreeing with the advice of the (International Health Regulations) IHR Emergency Committee, has determined that the upsurge of mpox continues to constitute a public health emergency of international concern,” it said, extending the emergency first declared on August 14.
The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) is the country hardest hit by the outbreak, followed by Burundi and Nigeria.
Mpox, previously known as monkeypox, is caused by a virus transmitted to humans by infected animals but can also be passed from human to human through close physical contact.
It causes fever, muscular aches and large boil-like skin lesions, and can be deadly.
The August emergency declaration was in response to a surge in cases of the new Clade 1b strain in the DRC that spread to nearby countries.
That and other mpox strains have been reported across 80 countries — 19 of them in Africa — so far this year, WHO has previously said.
