How Iranian drones went into action from Yemen to Ukraine to Israel

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Iranian-made Karrar drones are displayed next to a banner reading in Persian "Death to Israel" during an inauguration ceremony in Tehran. (Iranian Army office photo handout/AFP)
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Updated 15 April 2024
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How Iranian drones went into action from Yemen to Ukraine to Israel

  • Country has come a long way since first building surveillance drones during the Iran-Iraq War
  • Attack on Israel showed UAVs deployed en masse are vulnerable to sophisticated air defense systems

LONDON: In July 2018, a senior Iranian official made an announcement that raised eyebrows around the Middle East.

The Islamic Republic, said Manouchehr Manteqi, head of the Headquarters for Development of Knowledge-Based Aviation and Aeronautics Technology and Industry, was now capable of producing drones self-sufficiently, without reliance on foreign suppliers or outside technical know-how.

International sanctions restricting imports of vital technology had effectively crippled Iran’s ability to develop sophisticated conventional military aircraft.




Iran's President Ebrahim Raisi (C) and Defense Minister Mohammad Reza Gharaei Ashtiani (R) attend an unveiling ceremony of the new drone "Mohajer 10" in Tehran on August 22, 2023. (Iranian Presidency photo handout/AFP)

But now, said Manteqi, “designing and building drone parts for special needs (is) done by Iranian knowledge-based companies.”

In developing its own drone technology, Iran had found a way to build up its military capabilities regardless of sanctions.

Iran had already come a long way in the development of unmanned aerial vehicles, having first embarked on the creation of surveillance drones during the Iran-Iraq War.

Speaking in September 2016, Maj. Gen. Mohammed Hossein Bagheri, chief of staff of the Iranian armed forces, credited the tactical demands of the eight-year conflict as having been “pivotal in the production of modern science and technology for future use.”




This handout picture provided by the Iranian Army on May 28, 2022, shows Major General Abdolrahim Mousavi (R), Iran commander-in-chief, and Major General Mohammad Bagheri, armed forces chief of staff, visiting an underground drone base in an unknown location in Iran. (Handout via AFP)

This, he said, had led to the development of “Iranian-manufactured long-range drones (that) can target terrorists’ positions from a great distance and with a surface of one meter square.”

Iran’s first UAV was the Ababil, a low-tech surveillance drone built in the 1980s by the Iran Aircraft Manufacturing Industrial Co. It first flew in 1985 and was quickly joined by the Mohajer, developed by the Quds Aviation Industry Co.

Although initially both of these drones were fairly primitive, over the years both platforms have been steadily developed and have become far more sophisticated.

According to a report in state newspaper Tehran Times, the current Ababil-5, unveiled on Iran Army Day in April 2022, has a range of about 480 km and can carry up to six smart bombs or missiles.

But the Mohajer 10, launched last year on Aug. 22, appears to be an even more capable, hi-tech UAV, closely resembling America’s MQ-9 Reaper in both looks and capabilities.




Iranian drone "Mohajer 10" is displayed Iran's defense industry achievements exhibition on August 23, 2023 in Tehran. (AFP)

Armed with several missiles and able to remain aloft for 24 hours at an altitude of up to 7 km, it has a claimed range of 2,000 km. If true, this means it is capable of hitting targets almost anywhere in any country in the Middle East.

This appeared to be confirmed in July 2022, when Javad Karimi Qodousi, a member of the Iranian parliament’s National Security and Foreign Policy Committee, told Iran’s state news agency IRNA that “Iran’s strategy in building drones is to maintain the security of the country's surrounding environment up to a depth of 2,000 kilometers.”

He added: “According to the declared policy of the Leader of the Revolution, any person, group or country who stands up against the Zionist regime, the Islamic Republic will support him with all its might, and the Islamic Republic can provide them with knowledge in the field of drones.”

By 2021, following a rash of attacks in the region, it was clear that Iranian drone technology was in the hands of non-state actors and militias throughout the Middle East.




An Iran-made drone carries a flag of Lebanon's Hezbollah movement above Aaramta bordering Israel on May 21, 2023. Hezbollah simulated cross-border raids into Israel in a show of its military might, using live ammunition and an attack drone. (AFP/File)

Speaking during a visit to Iraq in May 2021, Marine Gen. Frank McKenzie, commander of US Central Command, said the Iranian drone program “has innovated with sophisticated, indigenously produced drones, which it supplies to regional allies.”

This “broad diffusion of Iranian drone technologies makes it almost impossible to tell who conducted a lethal drone strike in the region, and thus who should be held responsible and accountable.”

This, he added, “is only going to get more difficult.”

As it has raced to supply proxies and allies throughout the region and the wider world with these weapons, Iran has developed a second, cheaper class of UAV — the so-called “loitering munition,” or suicide drone.

Variations of these weapons, relatively cheap to produce but capable of carrying a significant explosive payload over hundreds of kilometers, have been produced in large numbers by the IRGC-linked Shahed Aviation Industries Research Center.

In September 2019, the Houthi rebels in Yemen claimed responsibility for an attack by 25 drones and other missiles on Saudi Aramco oil sites at Abqaiq and Khurais in eastern Saudi Arabia.

Afterward, the Kingdom’s Defense Ministry displayed wreckage that revealed delta-winged Shahed 136 drones were among the weapons that had been fired at the Kingdom.

The Houthis have claimed responsibility for other attacks by Iranian-made drones. In 2020, another Saudi oil facility was hit, at Jazan near the Yemen border; the following year, four drones targeted a civilian airport at Abha in southern Saudi Arabia, setting an aircraft on fire; and in January 2022 drones struck two targets in Abu Dhabi — at the international airport and an oil storage facility, where three workers were killed.




A picture taken on June 19, 2018 in Abu Dhabi shows the wreckage of a drone used by Yemen's Houthi militia in battles against the coalition forces led by Saudi Arabia and the UAE. The coalition was assembled in 2014 to help restore the UN-recognized Yemeni government that was ousted by the Iran-backed Houthis. (AFP)

In addition to supplying non-state actors with its drones, Iran is also developing a lucrative export market for the technology.

In November 2022, analysis by the Washington Institute for Near East Policy concluded that Iran “may be outsourcing kamikaze drone production to Venezuela,” a country sanctioned by the US in part because of its ties with Tehran, and in July 2023, Forbes reported that Bolivia had also expressed interest in acquiring Iranian drone technology.

Iran is not alone in developing markets for such weapons in South America. In December 2022, military intelligence and analysis organization Janes reported that Argentina had signed a contract with the Israeli Ministry of Defense to buy man-portable anti-personnel and anti-tank loitering munitions, produced by Israeli arms company Uvision.

Only four days ago, it was reported that Iranian-made armed drones have been used by the Sudanese army to turn the tide of conflict in the country’s civil war and halt the progress of the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces.




TV grab showing a UAV made in Venezuel, with help from Iran, China and Russia in 2012. Iran is thought to be outsourcing UAV production to Venezuela. (VTA handout via AFP)

According to Reuters, Sudan’s acting Foreign Minister Ali Sadeq denied his country had obtained any weapons from Iran. But the news agency cited “six Iranian sources, regional officials and diplomats,” who confirmed that Sudan’s military “had acquired Iranian-made unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) over the past few months.”

Iran’s interest in Sudan is strategic, according to an unnamed Western diplomat quoted by Reuters: “They now have a staging post on the Red Sea and on the African side.”

But Iran’s most significant state customer for its deadly drone technology to date is Russia.

In September 2022, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky expelled Iranian diplomats from the country after several downed drones were found to have been made in Iran.

“We have a number of these downed Iranian drones, and these have been sold to Russia to kill our people and are being used against civilian infrastructure and peaceful civilians,” Zelensky told Arab News at the time.




A local resident sits outside a building destroyed by Iranian-made drones after a Russian airstrike on Bila Tserkva, southwest of Kyiv, on October 5, 2022. (AFP/File)

Since then, drone use on both sides in the conflict has escalated, with Russia procuring many of its weapons and surveillance systems from Iran, in violation of UN resolutions.

At a meeting in New York on Friday the UK’s deputy political coordinator told the UN Security Council that “Russia has procured thousands of Iranian Shahed drones and has used them in a campaign against Ukraine’s electricity infrastructure, which is intended to beat Ukraine into submission by depriving its civilians of power and heat.”

But although Iran has successfully exported its drones, and drone technology, to several countries and non-state actors, its own use of the weapons has not been particularly auspicious.

As initially developed, drones were intended first for surveillance, and then as armed platforms for tactical use against single targets.

It is not known what Iran hoped to achieve by unleashing a swarm of 170 drones at once against Israel on Saturday night, in its first openly direct attack against the country. But all the reportedly failed attack has done is demonstrate that slow-moving drones deployed en masse in a full-frontal assault are extremely vulnerable to sophisticated air defense systems.




This video grab from AFPTV taken on April 14, 2024 shows explosions lighting up Jerusalem sky as Israeli air defenses intercept an Iranian drone. (AFPTV/AFP)

The vast majority of the drones, and the 30 cruise and 120 ballistic missiles fired at Israel in retaliation for the Israeli airstrike on the Iranian consulate in Damascus on April 1, were shot down, either intercepted by American warships and aircraft or downed by Israel’s multi-layered anti-missile systems.


Drone warfare through the years

The word “drone” used to describe an unmanned aerial vehicle was first coined during the Second World War, when the British converted a Tiger Moth biplane to operate as an unmanned, radio-controlled target for anti-aircraft gunnery training. Codenamed Queen Bee, between 1933 and 1943, hundreds were built. Purpose-built drones as we know them today first took to the skies over Vietnam in the 1960s in the shape of the Ryan Aeronautical Model 147 Lightning Bug. Radio-controlled, the jet-powered aircraft was launched from under-wing pylons fitted to converted C-130 Hercules transport aircraft. After its reconnaissance mission was over, the Lightning Bug parachuted itself back to Earth, where it could be recovered by a helicopter. It was Israel that developed what is considered to be the world’s first modern military surveillance drone, the propellor-driven Mastiff, which first flew in 1973. Made by Tadiran Electronic Industries, it could be launched from a runway and remain airborne for up to seven hours, feeding back live video.

• • • • • •

The Mastiff was acquired by the US military, which led to a collaboration between AAI, a US aerospace company, and the government-owned Israel Aerospace Industries. The result was the more sophisticated AAI RQ-2 Pioneer, a reconnaissance drone used extensively during the 1991 Gulf War. The breakthrough in drones as battlefield weapons was made thanks to Abraham Karem, a former designer for the Israeli Air Force who emigrated to the US in the late 1970s. His GNAT 750 drone was acquired by General Atomics and operated extensively by the CIA over Bosnia and Herzegovina in 1993 and 1994. This evolved into the satellite-linked RQ-1 Predator. First used to laser-designate targets and guide weapons fired by other aircraft, by 2000 it had been equipped with AGM-114 Hellfire missiles, and the first was fired in anger less than a month after the 9/11 terrorist attacks on America.

• • • • • •

The first strike, against a convoy carrying a Taliban leader in Afghanistan, missed. But on Nov. 14, 2001, a Predator that had taken off from a US air base in Uzbekistan fired two Hellfire missiles into a building near Kabul, killing Mohammed Atef, Osama bin Laden’s son-in-law, and several other senior Al-Qaeda personnel. Since then, silent death from the air has become the signature of American military power, thanks to a remotely operated weapons system from which no one is safe, no matter where they are. This was made clear by the audacious attack on the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corp’s Quds Force commander Qassem Soleimani, killed by a drone strike as he left Baghdad airport on Jan. 3, 2020. The MQ-9 Reaper drone that killed him had been launched from a military base in the Middle East and was controlled by operators at a US airbase over 12,000 km away in Nevada. — Jonathan Gornall
 

 


Netanyahu vows to uproot Hamas as ceasefire proposals are discussed

Updated 03 July 2025
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Netanyahu vows to uproot Hamas as ceasefire proposals are discussed

  • Nearly 21 months of war have created dire humanitarian conditions for the more than two million people in the Gaza Strip, where Israel has recently expanded its military operations

Gaza City, Palestinian Territories: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Wednesday vowed to eradicate Hamas, even as the Palestinian militant group said it was discussing new proposals from mediators for a ceasefire in Gaza.
The Israeli leader had yet to comment on US President Donald Trump’s claim that Israel had backed a plan for a 60-day truce in its offensive against Hamas in the war-ravaged territory.
But a week ahead of talks scheduled with Trump in Washington, he vowed to “destroy” Hamas “down to their very foundation.”
Hamas said it was “conducting national consultations to discuss” the proposals submitted in negotiations mediated by Qatar and Egypt.
Nearly 21 months of war have created dire humanitarian conditions for the more than two million people in the Gaza Strip, where Israel has recently expanded its military operations.
The civil defense agency said that Israeli forces had killed at least 47 people on Wednesday.
Among the dead was Marwan Al-Sultan, director of the Indonesian Hospital, a key clinic in the north of Gaza, Palestinian officials said.
Trump on Tuesday urged Hamas to accept a 60-day ceasefire, saying that Israel had agreed to finalize such a deal.
Hamas said in a statement that it was studying the latest proposals and aiming “to reach an agreement that guarantees ending the aggression, achieving the withdrawal (of Israeli forces from Gaza) and urgently aiding our people in the Gaza Strip.”
Netanyahu vowed however: “We will free all our hostages, and we will eliminate Hamas. It will be no more,” in filmed comments in the city of Ashkelon near Gaza’s northern border.
Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Saar earlier said that he saw “some positive signs,” amid high pressure to bring home the hostages.
“We are serious in our will to reach a hostage deal and a ceasefire,” he said. “Our goal is to begin proximity talks as soon as possible.”
Out of 251 hostages seized by Palestinian militants in October 2023, 49 are still held in Gaza, including 27 the Israeli military says are dead.
A Palestinian source familiar with the mediated negotiations told AFP that “there are no fundamental changes in the new proposal” under discussion compared to previous terms presented by the United States.
The source said that the new proposal “includes a 60-day truce, during which Hamas would release half of the living Israeli captives in the Gaza Strip, in exchange for Israel releasing a number of Palestinian prisoners and detainees.”
In southern Gaza, civil defense spokesman Mahmud Bassal told AFP that five members of the same family were killed in an Israeli air strike on Wednesday that hit a tent housing displaced people in the Al-Mawasi area.
Despite being declared a safe zone by Israel in December 2023, Al-Mawasi has been hit by repeated Israeli strikes.
AFP footage from the area showed makeshift tents blown apart as Palestinians picked through the wreckage trying to salvage what was left of their belongings.
“They came here thinking it was a safe area and they were killed. What did they do?” said one resident, Maha Abu Rizq, against a backdrop of destruction.
AFP footage from nearby Khan Yunis city showed infants covered in blood being rushed into Nasser Hospital. One man carrying a child whose face was smeared with blood screamed: “Children, children!“
Among other fatalities, Bassal later reported five people killed by Israeli army fire near an aid distribution site close to the southern city of Rafah and a further death following Israeli fire near an aid site in the center of the territory.
They were the latest in a string of deadly incidents that have hit people trying to receive food.
Media restrictions in Gaza and difficulties in accessing many areas mean AFP is unable to independently verify the tolls and details provided by rescuers.
Contacted by AFP, the Israeli military said it “is operating to dismantle Hamas military capabilities” in line with “international law, and takes feasible precautions to mitigate civilian harm.”
It said in a statement that a 19-year-old sergeant in its forces “fell during combat in the northern Gaza Strip.”
The military late on Wednesday issued a fresh evacuation warning to residents for three neighborhoods of Gaza City, urging them to flee south to the Mawasi area.
Israeli forces are “operating with extreme intensity in the area and will attack any location being used to launch missiles toward the State of Israel,” Arabic-language spokesman Avichay Adraee said in a message on Telegram.
“The destruction of terrorist organizations will continue and expand into the city center, encompassing all neighborhoods of the city,” Avichay wrote.
The military earlier said that its air force had intercepted two “projectiles” that crossed from northern Gaza into Israeli territory.
Israel launched its offensive in response to Hamas’s October 7, 2023 attack which resulted in the deaths of 1,219 people, mostly civilians, according to an AFP tally based on Israeli official figures.
Israel’s retaliatory military campaign has killed at least 57,012 people in Gaza, also mostly civilians, according to the Hamas-run territory’s health ministry. The United Nations considers its figures reliable.


Israeli Likud party ministers urge Netanyahu to annex West Bank

Updated 03 July 2025
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Israeli Likud party ministers urge Netanyahu to annex West Bank

  • The petition was signed by 15 cabinet ministers and Amir Ohana, speaker of the Knesset, Israel’s parliament

Cabinet ministers in Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud party called on Wednesday for Israel to annex the Israeli-occupied West Bank before the Knesset recesses at the end of the month.
They issued a petition ahead of Netanyahu’s meeting next week with US President Donald Trump, where discussions are expected to center on a potential 60-day Gaza ceasefire and hostage release deal with Hamas.
The petition was signed by 15 cabinet ministers and Amir Ohana, speaker of the Knesset, Israel’s parliament.
There was no immediate response from the prime minister’s office. Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer, long a confidant of Netanyahu, did not sign the petition. He has been in Washington since Monday for talks on Iran and Gaza.
“We ministers and members of Knesset call for applying Israeli sovereignty and law immediately on Judea and Samaria,” they wrote, using the biblical names for the West Bank captured by Israel in the 1967 Middle East war.
Their petition cited Israel’s recent achievements against both Iran and Iran’s allies and the opportunity afforded by the strategic partnership with the US and support of Trump.
It said the October 7, 2023, Hamas-led attack on Israel demonstrated that the concept of Jewish settlement blocs alongside the establishment of a Palestinian state poses an existential threat to Israel.
“The task must be completed, the existential threat removed from within, and another massacre in the heart of the country must be prevented,” the petition stated.
Most countries regard Jewish settlements in the West Bank, many of which cut off Palestinian communities from one another, as a violation of international law.
With each advance of Israeli settlements and roads, the West Bank becomes more fractured, further undermining prospects for a contiguous land on which Palestinians could build a sovereign state long envisaged in Middle East peacemaking.
Israel’s pro-settler politicians have been emboldened by the return to the White House of Trump, who has proposed Palestinians leave Gaza, a suggestion widely condemned across the Middle East and beyond.


Syria state media says talk of peace deal with Israel ‘premature’

Updated 02 July 2025
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Syria state media says talk of peace deal with Israel ‘premature’

  • “Statements concerning signing a peace agreement with the Israeli occupation at this time are considered premature,” state TV reported
  • “It is not possible to talk of the possibility of negotiations over a new agreement”

DAMASCUS: Syrian state media reported Wednesday that statements on signing a peace deal with Israel were “premature,” days after Israel said it was interested in striking a normalization agreement with Damascus.

“Statements concerning signing a peace agreement with the Israeli occupation at this time are considered premature,” state TV reported an unidentified official source as saying.

“It is not possible to talk of the possibility of negotiations over a new agreement unless the occupation fully adheres the 1974 disengagement agreement and withdraws from the areas it has penetrated,” it added.

On Monday, Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Saar said his country had an “interest in adding countries, Syria and Lebanon, our neighbors, to the circle of peace and normalization while safeguarding Israel’s essential and security interests.”

The statement came amid major shifts in the region’s power dynamics, including the fall of longtime Syrian ruler Bashar Assad in December and the weakening of his ally Lebanese armed group Hezbollah after its latest war with Israel.

Syria’s new Islamist authorities have confirmed they held indirect talks with Israel to reduce tensions.

Since Assad’s ouster, Israel has repeatedly bombed targets inside Syria while Israeli troops have entered the UN-patrolled buffer zone along the 1974 armistice line on the Golan Heights and carried out incursions deeper into southern Syria.

Interim President Ahmed Al-Sharaa has repeatedly said Damascus does not seek conflict with its neighbors, asking the international community to pressure Israel into stopping its attacks.

Syria has said that the goal of ongoing negotiations is the reimplementation of the 1974 armistice between the two countries.

Saar insisted that the Golan Heights, much of which Israel seized in 1967 and later annexed in a move not recognized by the United Nations, “will remain part of the State of Israel” under any future peace agreement.

Control of the strategic plateau has long been a source of tension between Israel and Syria, which are technically still at war.


Gulf diplomacy with Iran helped limit conflict with Israel, Middle East experts say

Updated 02 July 2025
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Gulf diplomacy with Iran helped limit conflict with Israel, Middle East experts say

  • Pursuit of pragmatic relations between GCC nations and Tehran prevented fighting from escalating ‘out of hand’
  • Trump-brokered peace agreement offers ‘opportunities’ for further steps toward regional security, according to academics specializing on the region

LONDON: Improved relations between Arab Gulf countries and Iran helped contain the recent conflict with Israel, Middle East experts said on Wednesday during a discussion about regional developments.

Israel attacked Iran on June 13 with airstrikes targeting its nuclear program and military sites. Iran retaliated during the 12-day conflict by launching salvos of missiles toward Israeli cities.

Many feared the war might escalate, dragging in other countries in the region, especially after the US joined the airstrikes on June 22 by dropping bombs on key Iranian nuclear sites.

While Iran did retaliate against the US by attacking Al-Udeid airbase in Qatar on June 23, President Donald Trump announced a ceasefire two days later, and Iran has refrained from attacking other US targets in the region.

When the war started, Gulf countries condemned Israel’s attacks on Iran and called for deescalation. There has been a shift in the region in recent years away from an adversarial relationship with Iran to one of more pragmatic relations, cemented by a Chinese-brokered agreement between Riyadh and Tehran in March 2023.

“That reintegration of Iran into the Gulf security complex has played a really prominent role in preventing this from getting out of hand,” Simon Mabon, a professor of international politics and director of the SEPAD peace and conflict research center at Lancaster University, said during a discussion about developments in the Middle East this year.

This approach showed Gulf states building a regional security architecture from the inside that is “inclusive,” he added. It is viewed as a more “pragmatic and more sustainable way of building a longer-term form of prosperity,” and the approach speaks to Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 reforms program and the economic pragmatism of Gulf states, he added during the online event organized by SEPAD and the Foreign Policy Centre in London.

Eyad Alrefai, a lecturer in political science at King Abdulaziz University in Jeddah and a SEPAD fellow, said the efforts to forge new relationships between Gulf countries and Iran meant that the nations had been able to “manage their differences diplomatically,” and this included economic issues.

There had been less Iranian interference in the domestic affairs of GCC countries, and also in the wider Arab region, he added. This included Iran’s decision not to get involved in Syria when President Bashar Assad, an Iranian ally, was removed from power by opposition fighters in December last year.

The West’s position on the Iran-Israel conflict, largely seen to be one of support of Israel, was symptomatic of the fact that those countries continue to adopt a “tactical” outlook toward the region rather than a strategic one, Alrefai said. He urged those countries to engage with the Middle East as a socioeconomic, sustainable project moving forward.

If the truce between Iran and Israel continues to hold, many see the end of the brief war as a potential opportunity for more stability in the region.

Lina Khatib, an associate fellow at Chatham House’s Middle East and North Africa Program, said there was “a real possibility for an integrated economic and security and political partnership” to emerge. She said a weakened Iran also opens up the chance to restart the Israeli-Palestinian peace process.

Trump said on Tuesday that Israel had agreed to the terms of a 60-day ceasefire in Gaza, where more than 57,000 Palestinians have been killed during a devastating military campaign launched by Israeli authorities in response to the Hamas-led attacks against Israel on Oct. 7, 2023, during which 1,200 people were killed and dozens taken hostage.

Khatib said a shift in domestic Israeli politics, with pressure from Trump, could reopen a pathway toward a long-term agreement between Israel and Palestine. This would also lead to further normalization of relations between Israel and Arab countries, she added.

“This will in turn encourage the flow of funding to places like Lebanon and Syria for reconstruction, which could only be good news for these countries economically, but also will help with stability,” Khatib said.

“Having a stable region is very much in the interest of countries in the Gulf as well.”

Clive Jones, a professor of regional security and director of the Institute for Middle Eastern and Islamic Studies at Durham University, said Israel had scored a huge win against Iran but ran the risk of failing to convert it into a diplomatic opportunity.

“The challenge for Israel now is how you actually cash in those military gains for diplomatic advantage,” he said.

“I think Israel is actually missing a huge opportunity, for example by not engaging more proactively with the new regime in Syria.”

He said Israel’s reliance on its military superiority would not be enough to secure long-term security.


Why latest Gaza ceasefire proposal may offer a pause — but not a path to peace

Updated 02 July 2025
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Why latest Gaza ceasefire proposal may offer a pause — but not a path to peace

  • As aid remains blocked and famine looms, a fragile US-backed truce faces skepticism from Hamas, Israel, and rights groups
  • With starvation deepening and no sign of peace, experts warn Israel’s aim is to force Palestinians out of Gaza — by design

LONDON: When global attention shifted to the conflict between Israel and Iran, the urgency around ending the war in Gaza appeared to dissipate. But for Palestinian civilians living under fire and the families of hostages still awaiting news, the nightmare remained very much alive.

On Wednesday, US President Donald Trump announced on Truth Social that Israel had accepted the key conditions required for a 60-day ceasefire, although he did not detail the specific terms of the agreement.

He said Qatar and Egypt, which have played significant roles in the negotiations, would present the final proposal to Hamas. Trump urged Hamas to accept the deal, warning that if they reject it, the situation “will not get better — IT WILL ONLY GET WORSE.”

Trump’s announcement came ahead of a scheduled meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at the White House next week, where Trump indicated he would take a “very firm” stance.

He expressed optimism that a ceasefire agreement could be finalized as soon as next week.

Aid agencies say the blockade has caused acute shortages of food. (AFP)

Despite these statements, the fighting has escalated. Israeli military spokesperson Avichay Adraee has announced renewed operations in northern Gaza, the aim being the elimination of “terrorists and terrorist infrastructure.”

On June 29, Israeli forces ordered mass evacuations from northern Gaza and Jabalia to Sheikh Radwan, warning residents to move south ahead of intensified strikes.

The US-backed proposal to end the conflict, originally presented by US envoy Steve Witkoff on May 31, called for a 60-day ceasefire in exchange for the release of 10 living Israeli hostages, while venturing into the thorny issue of Hamas disarmament.

But the plan had drawn criticism, with Hamas rejecting the proposal, saying it was “biased in favor of Israel” and failed to address the Palestinian enclave’s dire humanitarian crisis.

Instead, Hamas called for the full withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza, a permanent ceasefire, and the transfer of authority for the Gaza Strip to a Palestinian-led body.

Israel too had issued several non-negotiable demands, raising doubts about the proposal’s potential to deliver lasting peace — until Trump’s announcement on Wednesday.

Although it has signaled openness to a ceasefire if Hamas releases the remaining hostages, Israel has insisted on the disarmament or exile of the Hamas leadership. Some Israeli ministers have even threatened to resign over any deal that does not secure Hamas’s defeat.

Hamas called for the full withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza, a permanent ceasefire, and the transfer of authority for the Gaza Strip to a Palestinian-led body. (AFP)

“I don’t see any indication that we’re moving toward a ceasefire,” Khaled Elgindy, visiting scholar at Georgetown University’s Center for Contemporary Arab Studies, told Arab News.

“It seems fairly clear that Netanyahu does not want to stop bombing and starving Gaza.

“He and his defense minister, Israel Katz, have said very clearly that they’re not going to allow any humanitarian aid, which is the most urgent priority right now, even more than a ceasefire.”

Since early March 2025, Israel has largely blocked humanitarian aid from entering Gaza. These restrictions have halted the flow of essential supplies — including food, medicine, and fuel — dramatically worsening an already dire situation.

Although Israel resumed limited aid shipments in mid-May, UN agencies and humanitarian groups have widely condemned the effort as inadequate to meet the needs of Gaza’s 2.2 million residents.

International rights groups have denounced the aid restrictions as violations of international law, accusing Israel of using starvation as a weapon of war and pushing Gaza toward a man-made catastrophe — claims the Israeli government denies.

Aid agencies say the blockade has caused acute shortages of food, clean water, fuel, and medical supplies, driving the population to the brink of famine.

Despite growing international pressure, Israeli officials insist on retaining control over aid distribution, arguing that the measures are necessary to prevent supplies from falling into the hands of Hamas.

Since October 2023, the Israeli offensive has killed at least 55,700 Palestinians in Gaza, according to local health authorities. (AP)

In May, this stance led to the launch of a controversial new mechanism: the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation, or GHF. Backed by the US and Israel but rejected by the UN, the GHF has come under fire for failing to meet humanitarian standards and for relying on Israeli military oversight.

The GHF replaces the longstanding UN-led aid system, which Israel claims allowed Hamas to divert supplies — an allegation firmly denied by the UN and most humanitarian organizations.

Operating through four military-controlled distribution hubs in southern Gaza, the GHF forces civilians to travel long distances to collect prepackaged food, water, and hygiene kits — often under the watch of Israeli troops.

Critics, including the UN and major aid groups, say the GHF politicizes aid and enables Israel to weaponize relief by tightly regulating access.

Deadly incidents have occurred near distribution sites, with video footage showing scenes that observers have compared to concentration camps.

One such incident took place on June 15, when Israeli forces opened fire on a crowd of Palestinians gathered near an aid center in Rafah. At least eight were killed and dozens wounded, according to witnesses and Gaza health officials.

A tractor protest organised by the Kibbutz Movement and the Hostages Families (AFP)

Survivors described the scene as a trap, with no safe way to evacuate the wounded amid the chaos.

The UN and international rights groups condemned the violence. The Council on American-Islamic Relations labeled the aid centers “human slaughterhouses” due to repeated fatal shootings of civilians seeking food and water.

The international community has repeatedly called for a ceasefire in Gaza since the Israeli military operation began on Oct. 7, 2023, in retaliation for the deadly Hamas-led attack on southern Israel. Those appeals, however, have largely fallen on deaf ears.

In early June, the US vetoed yet another UN Security Council resolution calling for an unconditional and permanent ceasefire in Gaza.

Dorothy Shea, US ambassador to the UN, defended the veto, saying the resolution would “undermine diplomatic efforts” to reach a ceasefire. She also criticized the UN for not having designated Hamas a terrorist organization.

The international community has repeatedly called for a ceasefire in Gaza since the Israeli military operation began on Oct. 7, 2023. (AFP)

Hamas is described as such by the US, UK, and EU.

“We would not support any measure that fails to condemn Hamas and does not call for Hamas to disarm and leave Gaza,” she said.

Still, pressure continues to mount. On June 18, the World Food Programme emphasized the urgent need for another ceasefire to allow safe and consistent delivery of critical food supplies to families in Gaza.

On June 12, the UN General Assembly overwhelmingly passed a resolution demanding an immediate ceasefire, the release of all hostages, and unrestricted humanitarian access. The resolution, introduced by Spain, Slovenia, and others, was backed by 149 countries and condemned Israel’s use of starvation as a weapon of war.

A day later, the 10 elected members of the UN Security Council (E10) urged compliance with international law and emphasized the urgent need for humanitarian relief.

“A ceasefire will take a lot of diplomatic effort,” Elgindy said. “But at a minimum, there should be international pressure to force Israel to stop preventing food and medicine from entering Gaza. Even that is not really happening.”

The ceasefire proposal under discussion — supported by the US, Egypt, and Qatar — calls for a phased release of 10 living Israeli hostages and 18 bodies, in exchange for more than 1,200 Palestinian prisoners.

INNUMBER

• 5,833+ Killed in Gaza since hostilities resumed in March.

• 9 Israeli evacuation orders issued May 22 to June 12 across Gaza.

• 962 Israeli ceasefire violations in six weeks after Jan. 2025 agreement.

(Sources: WHO & Palestine’s representative to the UN)

Hostages would be freed over the first week of the truce, while Hamas would halt hostilities and permit aid to resume through the previously suspended UN-led system.

Israel signed off on the plan in May and is awaiting Hamas’s formal response. But Hamas insists on guarantees of a permanent ceasefire, the withdrawal of Israeli forces, and the restoration of full aid access.

Hamas also opposes Israel’s demand for the group’s full disarmament and the immediate release of all hostages before any ceasefire takes effect.

Witkoff has condemned Hamas’s conditions as “unacceptable,” urging the group to accept the deal as a basis for proximity talks.

Israel, meanwhile, maintains that any ceasefire must include the dismantling of Hamas as a military and governing entity and the return of all hostages.

It was triggered by the unprecedented Oct. 7, 2023, Hamas-led attack on southern Israel, which saw some 1,200 people killed, the majority of them civilians, and around 250 taken hostage, many of them non-Israeli nationals.

Israel’s retaliatory assault has displaced 90 percent of Gaza’s population, decimated infrastructure, and brought the health system to the brink of collapse.

Israeli officials, including Netanyahu and members of his far-right coalition, have openly discussed annexing parts of Gaza. (AFP)

Elgindy described the situation as “the worst humanitarian crisis since this horror began in October 2023.”

“It’s never been worse,” he said. “So, my sense, based on everything that we’re seeing and what the Israelis are saying, is they are moving ahead with their plan to forcibly displace the population through starvation and bombing and destruction.

“They’ve told us that this is their endgame, and we should believe them.”

Indeed, Israel’s strategy appears aimed at concentrating Gaza’s population in a small southern zone while seizing control of roughly 75 percent of the territory. The plan, approved by Israel’s security cabinet and supported by the US, has prompted alarm from human rights groups.

Organizations including Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch have condemned the effort as ethnic cleansing and a possible war crime, citing forced displacement and collective punishment.

With supplies blocked and civilians trapped in an ever-shrinking space, Gaza’s 2.2 million residents face escalating desperation and a vanishing hope of survival.

Israeli officials, including Netanyahu and members of his far-right coalition, have openly discussed annexing parts of Gaza and “conquering” the territory. Some have called for its depopulation, drawing global condemnation and renewed calls to end arms sales and military aid to Israel.

According to Elgindy, Israeli leaders claim to have informal agreements with some countries to accept Palestinians from Gaza — although several regional powers have flatly rejected such plans.

“Jordan and Egypt and Saudi Arabia and others have completely rejected the idea,” he said.

“But of course, since the most powerful nation in the world, the US, is endorsing the idea of expelling the population, the Israelis feel that it’s not only likely, but probable. And where they go is not of concern to Israel.

Since early March 2025, Israel has largely blocked humanitarian aid from entering Gaza. (AFP)

“The only thing that this Israeli leadership cares about is that they leave. And that is why they’re continuing to use starvation as a weapon while targeting aid workers, ambulances, and civilian infrastructure.

“So, all we know is that they want them to leave, but they don’t care where they go or how they go. I think they’re calling it voluntary relocation. But of course, when you bomb and starve the population, nothing is voluntary.

“There are even reports that they’re willing to pay $5,000 per family for a job and a house. They’re willing to spend billions on expelling the population rather than on rebuilding what they’ve destroyed.”

That possibility of forced mass displacement raises urgent questions about the future of international law.

“I think this is a test right now for the international community,” Elgindy said.

“Does international law mean anything at all? And if Israel is allowed to carry out its plan of ethnic cleansing of Gaza after it’s destroyed it, after broadcasting its intentions for many months — if this is allowed to go ahead, then we know for certain that international law is a complete farce and means nothing and will never mean anything going forward.

“It will be impossible to try and revive the idea of a rules-based order after Gaza.”