WASHINGTON: Iran’s attack on Israel gives Joe Biden a familiar dilemma, but on steroids — how to balance support for a difficult ally while preventing the nightmare scenario of a wider war?
Tensions with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu over Israel’s war on Gaza were papered over as the US president offered “ironclad” support, including shooting down Iranian drones.
But the White House said it would not support an Israeli counterattack and warned Israel to “think carefully” about escalation that could trigger a full-blown regional conflict.
The question then for Biden, who is facing a tough reelection battle against Donald Trump in November, is what if Netanyahu goes ahead anyway, as he has done in Gaza?
“It puts him in a very tough spot” Colin Clarke, Director of Research at the Soufan Group, told AFP.
“I think he’s suspicious of Netanyahu’s motives here... that Netanyahu is attempting to broaden the war throughout the region to deflect from how poorly the war is going for him in Gaza.”
Biden has been trying to avoid a regional war that could suck the United States back into the Middle East ever since Hamas’s October 7 attack and Israel’s offensive on the Gaza Strip.
The 81-year-old has, however, struggled to use the leverage provided by the United States being Israel’s main military supplier, especially given a long history of tense relations with Netanyahu.
Biden has been increasingly critical of the death toll in the Palestinian territory and even went as far as suggesting the US could limit military aid, but so far to little effect.
Iran’s attack has seen Biden go back to showing overt support — but at the same time scrambling to stop the crisis spiraling.
White House National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said Netanyahu was “well aware” that Biden did not want a “wider war.”
Biden himself warned Netanyahu of the potential dangers in a call on Saturday night at a time of “heightened emotion.”
“The president had a discussion about trying to slow things down, think through things,” a US official said.
The hope was that “in the light of day” Israel would see it had had a “spectacular success” against Iran’s attack, added the official.
Washington’s calculus looks to be that Iran also got what it wanted, with a show of force in retaliation for Israel’s strike in Damascus earlier this month that killed a key Iranian general, but with minimal damage.
“However, I fear the status quo will be short-lived,” said James Ryan, Executive Director of the Middle East Research and Information Project, warning of a “dangerous spiral.”
“I expect Biden to attempt to restrain Israeli responses, but Netanyahu has already shown a willingness to test any kind of limit Biden wishes to impose,” he added.
“It’s all very cynical now, unfortunately.”
Biden’s options for restraining Israel are likely to be limited at this stage to tough language in private and making threats in public.
“They’ve got themselves into a corner in many ways,” said Clarke.
“I think they’ve overplayed their hand a little bit by saying the administration is considering cutting off weapons to the Israelis. It’s never going to happen — I think it’s an empty threat, especially in an election year.”
The US presidential election in November comes as Biden faces domestic political pressure on all sides when it comes to Israel.
Trump has led a chorus of Republicans accusing Biden of being weak on the issue — while young and left-wing voters in particular are angered by his failure to stop the bloodshed in Gaza.
Netanyahu, facing his own political and legal issues at home, would now be able to use the Iran attacks to “paper over the very real rifts that exist” with Washington on Gaza, said Clarke.
“If he can drag this out until November, he’s hoping for a Trump victory” when he would have “carte blanche” to act however he wanted in the region, said Clarke.
Another possibility, however, is that Netanyahu may decide to “accede to American urgings” for now on Iran — but with a cost, said Paul Salem, President and CEO of the Middle East Institute.
“Politically, I think they can cash in on saying, ‘okay, America, we won’t do anything, we’re being good. But in exchange, you have to, you know, give us more of a free hand in Gaza,’” he said.
Biden in ‘very tough spot’ trying to stop Middle East escalation
https://arab.news/2yf4n
Biden in ‘very tough spot’ trying to stop Middle East escalation
- Biden has been trying to avoid a regional war that could suck the United States back into the Middle East ever since Hamas’s October 7 attack
US starts to build submarine presence on strategic Australian coast under AUKUS
- Virginia class submarine is 'the most advanced warship in the world'
- It has been exempted from Pentagon budget cuts as Trump administration focuses less on the Middle East and Europe, and more on the Indo Pacific
PERTH: In the control room of the American Virginia class attack submarine USS Minnesota, off the Western Australian coast, sonar operators adjust to the chatter of dolphins in new waters where the US submarine presence will soon grow significantly.
On a training exercise from its home port in Guam, USS Minnesota is a forerunner to four Virginia class submarines that will be hosted at a Western Australian naval base from 2027, under the AUKUS partnership to transfer nuclear submarine capability to Australia.
Crew use video game joysticks to interrogate screen images from a photonic mast that has replaced a periscope. Life aboard can mean up to 100 days without seeing sunlight, and intermittent communication with families via email to maintain stealth.
Commanding officer Jeffrey Corneille says the Virginia class submarine is “the most advanced warship in the world.”
“If someone wakes up and they say ‘Is today the day?’, we make sure that they say ‘Maybe not’,” he says, describing its deterrent role.
Around 50-80 United States navy personnel will arrive by the middle of the year at Western Australia’s HMAS Stirling base, which is undergoing an A$8 billion ($5 billion) upgrade to prepare for the “Submarine Rotational Force West,” Australian officials have said.
In two years, those numbers will swell to hundreds of US navy personnel and support crew.
The location of HMAS Stirling, closer to Asia and the Indian Ocean than the US Pacific fleet headquarters in Hawaii, is strategically important to the United States, said Peter Dean, director of Foreign Policy and Defense at the United States Studies Center at the University of Sydney.
“Defending the Indian Ocean against rising Chinese capabilities and power is important,” he said.
The Virginia submarine program has been exempted from Pentagon budget cuts as the Trump administration focuses less on the Middle East and Europe, and more on the Indo Pacific, he said.
The Trump administration’s number three Pentagon official, Elbridge Colby, told a US Senate confirmation hearing this month the attack submarines are “absolutely essential” for making the defense of Taiwan viable, and production rates must be lifted to first meet US needs and also to fulfill its obligations to sell submarines to Australia under the AUKUS pact.
The USS Minnesota moved its home port from Hawaii to the US Pacific territory of Guam, closer to Taiwan and the only forward-deployed US submarine base, in November.
A Chinese navy task group that circumnavigated Australia in February and March, holding unprecedented live fire drills off the east coast that disrupted commercial airlines, before passing Western Australia to coincide with the USS Minnesota’s port call and heading into the Indian Ocean, has highlighted China’s ambition to operate more frequently in Australia’s neighborhood, Australian officials said.
Under AUKUS, Australia’s most expensive defense project, Australia will buy two used Virginia class submarines next decade, and build a new class of nuclear powered submarine with Britain, to replace its aging diesel powered fleet.
In preparation, there are 115 Australians in the US nuclear navy training pipeline or on Virginia submarines, plus 130 training for nuclear submarine maintenance at Pearl Harbor in Hawaii, US navy officials said.
Trump and Putin expected to speak this week as US pushes for Russia-Ukraine ceasefire
- Witkoff, speaking after what he called positive talks with Putin in Moscow, told CNN that he was hopeful of real progress to end the conflict
WASHINGTON: US President Donald Trump is expected to speak with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin this week on ways to end the three-year war in Ukraine, US envoy Steve Witkoff told CNN on Sunday after returning from what he described as a “positive” meeting with Putin in Moscow.
“I expect that there will be a call with both presidents this week, and we’re also continuing to engage and have conversation with the Ukrainians,” said Witkoff, who met with Putin on Thursday night, adding that he thought the talk between Trump and Putin would be “really good and positive.”
Trump is trying to win Putin’s support for a 30-day ceasefire proposal that Ukraine accepted last week, as both sides continued trading
heavy aerial strikes
through the weekend and Russia moved closer to ejecting Ukrainian forces from their months-old foothold in the western Russian region of Kursk.
Trump said in a social media post on Friday that there was “a very good chance that this horrible, bloody war can finally come to an end.” He also said he had “strongly requested” that Putin not kill the thousands of Ukrainian troops that Russia is pushing out of Kursk.
Putin said he would honor Trump’s request to spare the lives of the Ukrainian troops if they surrendered. The Kremlin also said on Friday that Putin had sent Trump a message about his ceasefire plan via Witkoff, expressing “cautious optimism” that a deal could be reached to end the conflict.
In separate appearances on Sunday shows, Witkoff, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and Trump’s national security adviser, Mike Waltz, emphasized that there are still challenges to be worked out before Russia agrees to a ceasefire, much less a final peaceful resolution to the war.
Asked on ABC whether the US would accept a peace deal in which Russia was allowed to keep stretches of eastern Ukraine that it has seized, Waltz replied, “Are we going to drive every Russian off of every inch of Ukrainian soil?” He added that the negotiations had to be grounded in “reality.”
Rubio told CBS a final peace deal would “involve a lot of hard work, concessions from both Russia and Ukraine,” and that it would be difficult to even begin those negotiations “as long as they’re shooting at each other.”
Additional measures
Trump has warned that unless a ceasefire is reached, the conflict between Moscow and Kyiv has the potential to spiral into World War Three.
His administration took steps last week to induce further cooperation on a ceasefire. On Saturday, Trump said that General Keith Kellogg’s role had been narrowed from special envoy for Ukraine and Russia to only Ukraine, after Russian officials sought to exclude him from peace talks.
A license allowing US energy transactions with Russian financial institutions expired last week, according to the Trump administration, raising pressure on Putin to come to a peace agreement over Ukraine.
The US Treasury Department is looking at possible sanctions on Russian oil majors and oilfield service companies, a source familiar with the matter said, deepening steps already taken by Biden.
Indonesian NGOs to build new women’s and children’s hospital in Gaza City
- New healthcare facility will be the second in the Gaza Strip to carry Indonesia’s name, after the Indonesian hospital in the enclave’s north
- Hospital will be on a 5,000 square-meter plot of land donated by the Palestinian Ministry of Health
Jakarta: Construction on a new women’s and children’s hospital in Gaza City, funded by the Indonesian people and NGOs, will begin next month as part of a national campaign to support Palestine.
The 402 billion rupiah ($24.5 million) project is organized by Jakarta-based Aqsa Working Group and Maemuna Center Indonesia with the support of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
The hospital — which will be called the Indonesian Mother and Child Hospital, or RSIA Indonesia — will be built on a 5,000 square-meter plot of land near Al-Rantisi Hospital in the city’s Nasser neighborhood, which was donated by the Palestinian Ministry of Health.
“As we all know, the majority of victims of Zionist Israel’s genocide in Gaza are children and women … We hope this hospital will help provide healthcare for children and women in Gaza,” AWG chairman Muhammad Anshorullah told Arab News on Sunday.
The new healthcare facility will be the second to bear Indonesia’s name, after the Indonesia Hospital in north Gaza, which was funded by the Indonesian NGO Medical Emergency Rescue Committee, or MER-C, and has been open since late 2015.
Since Israel began its assault on Gaza in October 2023, the Indonesia Hospital has been one of the last functioning health facilities in the north.
“We hope that RSIA will only strengthen the strong reputation that MER-C has built through the Indonesia Hospital in northern Gaza. The Indonesia Hospital is a symbol of the friendship and brotherhood of Indonesia and Palestine, God willing, RSIA will only strengthen that bond,” Anshorullah said.
A staunch supporter of Palestine, the Indonesian government and people see Palestinian statehood as being mandated by their own constitution, which calls for the abolition of colonialism.
Last month, the foreign affairs ministry, the Indonesian Ulema Council and Indonesia’s National Alms Agency launched a solidarity campaign to raise $200 million in humanitarian aid for Palestinians and support the rebuilding of Gaza.
Several Indonesian NGOs have pledged contributions for RSIA fundraising, while donations have also been made by the Indonesian people.
“One of the big projects for Gaza that have been proposed and will be handled by Indonesian charity and humanitarian organizations is the development of the Indonesian Mother and Child Hospital in Gaza City,” Ahrul Tsani, Middle East director at the foreign affairs ministry, said in a statement.
“This is an important part in Indonesia’s humanitarian diplomacy in Palestine, and a real product of Indonesia’s support as a nation.”
Israeli forces have killed more than 48,000 people and injured more than 111,000, although the real death toll is feared to be much higher. According to the UN Human Rights Office, women and children make up nearly 70 percent of the fatalities it has verified since October 2023.
Maemuna Center and AWG will dispatch a team to survey the location in the next few weeks, with plans for construction to begin by the end of April at the latest.
“The construction of RSIA is not just a matter of building a health infrastructure, but it is a real form of solidarity from Indonesia to Palestine,” said Onny Firyanti Hamidi, head of Maemuna Center Indonesia.
“This is a concrete step to ensure that the women and children of Gaza will have access to proper healthcare.”
Elderly UK couple held by Taliban ‘moved to high security jail’: media
- Daughter expressed concern for the health of her father who will turn 80 in April
- She said that according to information provided by a “reliable source” he had been “beaten and shackled”
LONDON: An elderly British couple arrested by Taliban authorities in Afghanistan have been separated and moved to a high-security prison, a newspaper reported on Sunday.
Peter and Barbie Reynolds, who are in their 70s, were detained last month with an American friend, Faye Hall, as they traveled to their home in central Bamyan province.
Their daughter Sarah Entwistle described her parents’ alleged transfer to a heavily guarded prison in an undisclosed location as a “shocking escalation,” the Sunday Times reported.
In particular she expressed concern for the health of her father who will turn 80 in April.
She said that according to information provided by a “reliable source” he had been “beaten and shackled.”
He was in “immense pain” and her mother, 75, had been told she could no longer see him.
“We hear he now has a chest infection, a double eye infection and serious digestive issues due to poor nutrition. Without immediate access to necessary medication, his life is in serious danger,” she told the Sunday Times.
“Our desperate appeal to the Taliban is that they release them to their home, where they have the medication he needs to survive,” she added.
The Reynolds, who married in Kabul in 1970, have run school training programs in the south Asian country for 18 years.
They remained in Afghanistan after the Taliban takeover in 2021 when the British embassy withdrew its staff.
Following their arrest on February 1, the couple’s home had been ransacked and staff questioned over whether there was a missionary component to the training, the report said.
The suggestion is strongly denied by the staff and family.
The Taliban’s interior ministry has confirmed the detention of two Britons, a Chinese-American and their Afghan translator arrested “based on certain considerations.”
“Efforts are underway to resolve this issue,” a spokesperson said in late February, without identifying the detainees.
Taliban leaders swept back to power in 2021 ousting the US-backed government and implementing a strict interpretation of Islamic law, despite promises not to return to the brutality displayed when they ruled in the 1990s.
They have since imposed broad restrictions on women and girls, barring them from education beyond the age of 12 and squeezing them out of jobs and public life with rules the United Nations has labelled “gender apartheid.”
China’s Xi declines EU invitation to anniversary summit, FT reports
- Beijing told EU officials that Premier Li Qiang would meet the presidents of the European Council and Commission instead of Xi
Chinese President Xi Jinping has declined an invitation to visit Brussels for a summit to mark the 50th anniversary of EU-China diplomatic ties, the Financial Times reported on Sunday.
Beijing told EU officials that Premier Li Qiang would meet the presidents of the European Council and Commission instead of Xi, the FT said, citing two people familiar with the matter whom it did not identify.
The Chinese premier usually attends the summit when it is held in Brussels, while the president hosts it in Beijing, but the EU wants Xi to attend to commemorate half a century of relations between Beijing and the bloc, the newspaper said.
Tensions between Brussels and Beijing have grown since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, with the EU accusing China of backing the Kremlin, the FT said. Last year, the European Union also imposed tariffs on Chinese electric vehicle imports.
China’s Foreign Ministry and the EU did not immediately respond to Reuters requests for comment.
“Informal discussions are ongoing, both about setting the date for the EU-China summit this year and the level of representation,” an EU official told the newspaper, while the Chinese ministry was quoted as saying it did not have any information to provide on the matter.
China, the world’s second-biggest economy, and the EU, its third-largest, spent most of 2024 exchanging barbs over allegations of overcapacity, illegal subsidies and dumping in each other’s markets.
In October, the EU imposed double-digit tariffs on China-made electric vehicles after an anti-subsidy investigation, in addition to its standard car import duty of 10 percent. The move drew loud protests from Beijing, which in return, raised market entry barriers for certain EU products such as brandy.
