The last time the Arabian Gulf Cup rolled around was just after the 2022 World Cup and it was almost an afterthought for Saudi Arabia and head coach Herve Renard, especially as the Saudi Pro League was in full swing.

Not this time. As the 26th edition kicks off this week, all eyes are on Kuwait and whether the Green Falcons can find the form to lift the trophy and also ignite their faltering 2026 World Cup qualification campaign.

Winning the Gulf Cup for the first time since 2004 will be a big deal but the excitement and plaudits would quickly fade if the team miss out on the expanded 48-team World Cup. Renard has a tricky test to get the balance right: achieve results but also look ahead. Another failure would increase the already substantial pressure surrounding Saudi Arabia.

Qualification for the 2026 World Cup has not been going well. After six games in the third round, Saudi Arabia have six points, with just that one win in China (courtesy of a last-minute Hassan Kadesh header) to look back on. With only the top two certain of going to the World Cup and Japan already nine points clear, the other five teams are separated by just a single point. It is going to be a brutal race for second and if the Green Falcons do not improve before March’s games then everything is in doubt. 

The Gulf Cup is also important for Renard. The Frenchman returned in October to replace Roberto Mancini. Renard may only have ended his first spell just over 18 months earlier, but he needs time to get to grips with the team. His first game in November was a battling 0-0 draw in Australia, an encouraging start that was quickly followed by a 2-0 loss at the hands of Indonesia in Jakarta. 

Against that background comes the Gulf Cup. There are no Saudi Pro League games meaning that, unlike last time, Renard will take his strongest side to compete in the eight-team tournament that is split into two groups of four with the top two going into the semis. Saudi Arabia are in Group B and kick off against Bahrain on Sunday — a rival for that second spot in World Cup qualification — before Yemen on Dec. 25 and Iraq three days later. 

Even assuming, as expected, Yemen end up fourth and last, it should be a tough few days. Bahrain and Iraq will see this tournament the same way as Saudi — a chance to lift a trophy but also to get ready for March’s crucial qualifiers. Getting to the final is not just an objective in its own right but also means five competitive games and valuable preparation time.

The biggest issue for Saudi Arabia is obvious: goals, or rather the lack of them. Three scored in six qualifiers is a shocking statistic and none in the last four is even worse. Defender Kadesh scored twice from set pieces in the second matchday against China which followed Musab Al-Juwayr’s equaliser against Indonesia in the opening game. The strikers have not found the target at all. If these issues continue then Saudi Arabia are going to miss out on the World Cup.

Firas Al-Buraikan, Saleh Al-Shehri and Abdullah Al-Hamdan are all familiar names while Abdullah Radif is an increasingly regular face at international level. Renard needs to get these forwards firing, or at least one of them. 

There is some encouraging news. In this week’s friendly, played behind closed doors  to the media as well as fans, Saudi Arabia defeated Trinidad and Tobago 3-1. Both Al-Shehri and Al-Hamdan were on target. With the poor results of late and the negative publicity around the team, it was perhaps a wise decision to make the match low-key and Renard will be hoping that his strikers now have a little more confidence.

The injury to Salem Al-Dawsari makes it all a little harder. The team’s talisman and best creative talent is likely to miss the early stages, meaning that others will have to step up. There may be a chance for some younger talents such as Ayman Fallatah, Abdulmalik Al-Oyayari, Abdulaziz Al-Othman and Mohammed Al-Qahtani to make a name for themselves but the old stalwarts at the back such as Ali Al-Bulaihi, Sultan Al-Ghannam (though these two missed training Wednesday due to minor ailments) and Yasser Al-Shahrani need to play their part.

In short, the pressure is on. The Gulf Cup could be the catalyst for change that Renard and Saudi Arabia are looking for after a disappointing 2024.