Investment opportunities in Saudi Arabia abound beyond major cities 

As Saudi Arabia steers toward a more resilient and inclusive economy, the growing fascination with these areas underscores the evolving priorities guiding the Kingdom’s economic trajectory. (SPA)
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Updated 20 April 2024
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Investment opportunities in Saudi Arabia abound beyond major cities 

  • Decentralized development shifts attention away from the cities to the lesser-explored corners of the Kingdom

JEDDAH: In the heart of Saudi Arabia, amidst the towering skylines of Riyadh, Jeddah and Dammam that have long symbolized the nation’s economic strength, a new narrative is taking shape. It is a story of decentralized development, where attention is shifting away from the bright lights of the cities to the lesser-explored corners of the Kingdom.
In recent years, there has been a noticeable pull towards the untapped potential of smaller towns and regional municipalities, captivating the interest of investors, entrepreneurs, and policymakers alike.
This shift marks a departure from the traditional belief that growth is solely concentrated in urban centers, signaling a fresh era of exploration and diversification.
As Saudi Arabia steers towards a more resilient and inclusive economy, the growing fascination with these areas, which had not received much attention before Saudi Vision 2030 was announced, underscores the evolving priorities and ambitions guiding the Kingdom’s economic trajectory.
Talat Hafiz, a renowned economist, told Arab News that the focus on developing small towns, helps to limit internal movement of people to urban and large cities to seek job opportunities and look for better living.
“It also supports the government efforts in reaching comprehensive sustainable economic development,” he said.




Economist Talat Hafiz

Commenting on what sectors or industries within these smaller towns are experiencing the most significant growth, Hafiz said that the case differs from one place to another as each city has its own economic characteristics and competitive advantages.
“In some towns, tourism is the most competitive advantage while the industrial sector is more competitive and advantageous in the others,” he pointed out.
The economist noted that Saudi Vision 2030 has fostered the capabilities of local planning decentralization, which would allow municipalities to undertake tasks that boost the city in collaboration with the private sector.
He added that that, as a result, several small towns and cities have been upgraded to the level of urban cities which in turn has improved the infrastructure and public services.
“Boosting the capability of small towns is coupled with the development of universities and medical and educational facilities, which in turn has attracted investment, created job opportunities and limited internal immigration,” Hafiz said.
Nasser Al-Qaraawi, another economist, said that Saudi Vision 2030 took into consideration the need to alleviate congestion within major cities due to the excessive focus on them.


He added that the excessive population density in these major cities, compared to other cities, has made life difficult, noting that ineffective urban planning strategies contributed to the overcrowding, especially by young people seeking job opportunities and education.
“This was followed by the aftermath of the stock market crisis in 2006,” he told Arab News.
Al-Qaraawi added that when the 2030 plan was announced, developing areas surrounding the larger cities and less developed regions were given the opportunity for growth.
However, he further said, these regions unfortunately vary in success as some municipalities are unable to perform to their full potential due to bureaucratic hurdles.
Al-Qaraawi recommended restructuring the municipalities, as development indicators highlight the pressing need to catch up and enact meaningful change within these local governments to fulfill the state’s goals and meet the citizens’ aspirations.
Investment opportunities in smaller municipalities include the following:

Diverse investment opportunities in EP municipality 

Eastern Province’s urban administration has unveiled 362 diverse investment opportunities, spanning cities and governorates.

Covering over 20,000 assets across 116 million sq. m., the initiative includes sectors like infrastructure, transportation and tourism. Investors were urged to capitalize on incentives like contractual extensions and exemption periods.

These investment portfolios serve as a database for significant investment growth in the region, according to the Saudi Press Agency.

Jazan as key investment hub, coffee capital
With its significant port and refinery, Jazan has experienced a surge in investment, driven by rapid infrastructure expansion. The economic zone aims to attract SR11 billion ($2.93 billion) in foreign investments by 2040, leveraging its untapped mining reserves. The region is poised to become a hub for the mining sector, projected to be Saudi Arabia's third pillar of industry.
Additionally, Jazan’s integrated economic center is expected to generate 17,000 direct jobs by 2040 and contribute significantly to the gross domestic product.
During the Cityscape Global Exhibition, held in Riyadh from Sept. 12-13 last year, Jazan Municipality announced 5,000 investment opportunities to be launched from 2023 to 2027, with a total value exceeding SR5 billion.
Among the most prominent developmental and investment projects presented were the Jazan Gateway, Water Park City, Al-Wadi Park, and Jazan Private University as well as Jazan Private Medical City.
On the other hand, the region’s renowned coffee industry adds to its cultural heritage, with plans for the International Saudi Coffee Exhibition to support local farming initiatives and transform Jazan into a global trade center.
The Sustainable Rural Agricultural Development Program has provided more than SR155 million in support to the coffee sector, benefiting over 3,000 farmers. The Ministry of Environment, Water, and Agriculture, in collaboration with the private sector, is implementing various projects, including opportunities for coffee cultivation.

Northern Borders region attracts more investors 

The Kingdom seeks to establish a logistics zone in Arar, where investors will be granted land plots, according to Minister of Commerce Majid Al-Qasabi, who made the statement during his speech at the Northern Borders Investment Forum, held in November 2023.  
According to a release issued by the Arar Municipality in January 2024, Saudi Arabia’s Northern Borders region saw a 58.3 percent growth in factory numbers in the third quarter of 2023, with total investment hitting SR74.3 billion. 
The statement added that the area, driven by a strategic regional development office, attracted increased corporate spending for business setups during that period, rising from SR73.9 billion in the third quarter of 2023.
In February 2023, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman announced the establishment of the Strategic Office for the Development of the Northern Borders region to enhance the quality of life in the area. 

Asir region to exploit huge tourism potential

In September 2021, the crown prince unveiled a SR50 billion tourism strategy for Asir, aiming to attract over 10 million visitors by 2030. Dubbed “The Arabian Highland,” the plan entails comprehensive development, focusing on cultural and natural assets to establish Asir as a year-round destination.

Projects include enhancing tourist attractions on Asir’s mountains, leveraging the region’s rich culture and heritage for social and economic growth. The strategy taps into Asir’s tourism potential, emphasizing geographical diversity and modernizing infrastructure.
In October 2023, the crown prince announced a master plan for the new Abha International Airport, increasing capacity to accommodate 13 million passengers annually and enhancing air connectivity to 250 destinations, aligning with Saudi Vision 2030.
In the same month, he launched Ardara Co. to develop the Abha Valley project, contributing to Saudi Arabia’s National Tourism Strategy to position the Kingdom as a global tourism hub by 2030. These initiatives create opportunities across sectors like hospitality, agriculture, and entertainment, bolstering private sector growth. 

Taif attracts investments of over SR11 billion

Investment agreements exceeding SR11 billion were announced on the first day of the Taif Investment Forum, held in November 2023, according to the Saudi Press Agency. 
Under the theme “Invest in Taif,” the three-day forum saw active participation from industry leaders in the UK, China and South Korea. Several high-ranking officials from Saudi government agencies and the private sector also attended. 
Sultan Al-Saadoun, the general supervisor of the forum, emphasized that the investment agreements are the result of partnerships between the public and private sectors in over 27 projects.
He added that these projects will create more than 10,000 job opportunities for the people of Taif of both genders.  
Ghazi Al-Quthami, president of the city’s Chamber of Commerce and Industry, underscored Taif’s potential for investments in various sectors, such as tourism, agriculture, industry, and healthcare.
He added that the chamber is actively collaborating with relevant entities to expand investment opportunities in the city. 

Al-Jouf provides 700 investment opportunities in 2023

The municipality of the northern region of Al-Jouf, which is home to the Sakaka solar power plant, announced in February 2024 it had introduced more than 700 opportunities in the municipal sector of the region during 2023 through the ‘Furas’ municipal investment portal.
The region’s mayor, Atef Al-Shara’an, emphasized the municipality’s commitment to presenting the available investment opportunities to investors in accordance with the plans of the Ministry of Municipal and Rural Affairs and Housing, and the goals of Vision 2030 of the Kingdom, according to SPA.

Al-Shara’an added that the investment opportunities presented during the past year varied between major, medium, small, and temporary opportunities in all commercial, recreational and tourist as well as sports, service, seasonal events, and other fields.
Recently, the region’s mayoralty announced the bid opening for eight commercial and residential investment opportunities for national investors and institutions at Al-Esawia sub-municipality. The bid evaluation meeting is scheduled for April 15.

Yanbu emerges as entertainment hub 
A contract worth SR1.1 billion has been granted to build a new entertainment hub in Yanbu to boost economic diversification in Saudi Arabia.
The contract was awarded by Public Investment Fund subsidiary Saudi Entertainment Ventures, also known as SEVEN, to a joint venture between Al Bawani Co. and UCC Saudi, according to a press release.
The statement emphasized that the entertainment hub will be located along the seafront promenade on Al Nawras Island, aiming to greatly enhance the city’s local entertainment scene.
In a press statement, issued in September 2023, SEVEN said that the company is investing more than SR50 billion to build 21 entertainment destinations across Saudi Arabia.  
The company has earlier announced that it had already begun construction works on its entertainment destinations in the Al Hamra district of Riyadh and Tabuk. 

Buraidah Municipality unveils 28 investments opportunities

The Qassim region, home to Buraidah city, stands as a province abundant in natural and agricultural resources. Notably, it hosts the Middle East’s only bauxite mine, yielding approximately 5 million tonnes of ore and contributing to the Kingdom’s aluminum production of 1.8 million tonnes in 2020.
The Buraidah Municipality has recently unveiled 28 investment opportunities for the first quarter of 2024.
These opportunities encompass a wide range of sectors, from commercial, health, and tourism activities to transportation, construction, and entertainment projects. Additionally, investors can explore prospects in agriculture, education, and other sectors, promising diverse avenues for growth and development.

It is apparent that, by tapping into regional potential and spreading development initiatives, the Kingdom aims to reduce reliance on oil revenues, stimulate job creation, and foster widespread prosperity, in line with the goals of Saudi Vision 2030.
 


Citi gets license for regional headquarters in Saudi Arabia, memo shows

Updated 22 November 2024
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Citi gets license for regional headquarters in Saudi Arabia, memo shows

  • Wall Street giant received the approval from the Ministry of Investment Saudi Arabia

RIYADH: US bank Citigroup has received approval to establish its regional headquarters in Saudi Arabia’s Riyadh, according to an internal memo seen by Reuters on Friday.
The Wall Street giant received the approval from the Ministry of Investment Saudi Arabia (MISA), according to the memo.
“This marks a significant leap forward for our franchise in Saudi Arabia and we look forward to our continued growth in the kingdom,” Citi Saudi Arabia CEO Fahad Aldeweesh said in the memo.
Bloomberg News reported the development earlier in the day.
Wall Street titan Goldman Sachs also received a license in May to set up its regional headquarters in Saudi Arabia’s Riyadh.


Saudi Arabia joins global hydrogen fuel partnership

Updated 22 November 2024
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Saudi Arabia joins global hydrogen fuel partnership

RIYADH: Saudi Arabia has joined a key international alliance designed to enhance cooperation around the development and deployment of hydrogen and fuel cell technologies.

The International Partnership for the Hydrogen and Fuel Cell Economy works to deliver a balanced and effective global transition to cleaner and more efficient energy systems.

The Kingdom’s Ministry of Energy announced Saudi Arabia had signed up to the organization, with a press release saying the move represents a new step that confirms the “pioneering role” that the Kingdom is playing in international efforts aimed at enhancing sustainability and “innovating advanced solutions” in the fields of clean power.

Saudi Arabia has pledged to achieve zero neutrality in terms of carbon emissions by 2060, as well as becoming one of the world’s most important producers and exporters of clean hydrogen.

The press release added: “The Kingdom’s accession to this partnership confirms its firm vision regarding the role of international cooperation and its importance in achieving a more sustainable energy future.”

The IPHE was originally launched in 2003 by the US, and has two active working groups covering Education & Outreach, and Regulations, Codes, Standards, & Safety.


COP29 enters final hours amid key negotiations on climate finance and carbon markets

Updated 22 November 2024
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COP29 enters final hours amid key negotiations on climate finance and carbon markets

BAKU: As COP29 nears its conclusion, negotiators are working intensively to finalize agreements that could significantly advance global climate action. 

Hosted in Baku, Azerbaijan, the conference has focused on critical issues such as climate finance, adaptation strategies, and the operationalization of carbon markets under the 2015 Paris Agreement. 

Although decisions remain in draft form, the discussions signal progress on aligning global efforts with the urgent need to combat the climate crisis.

Saudi Arabia has emerged as a key player, leveraging its growing diplomatic influence and domestic climate initiatives to shape the outcomes.

Push for equitable climate finance

One of the most pressing topics at COP29 has been the New Collective Quantified Goal on climate finance. 

Negotiators are seeking to establish a framework that mobilizes $1.3 trillion annually by 2035 to support developing nations in addressing climate change. 

This new goal reflects the escalating financial demands of both mitigation and adaptation efforts, with developing countries requiring $215 billion to 387 billion annually for adaptation alone through 2030.

Saudi Arabia has been a vocal advocate for equitable financing mechanisms, emphasizing the need for practical pathways to unlock funds for countries that bear the brunt of climate impacts yet have limited resources. 

The Kingdom has supported calls for reforming global financial institutions to reduce barriers such as high borrowing costs and restrictive conditions. This aligns with Saudi Arabia’s broader position that climate finance must be accessible and targeted to the most vulnerable nations.

Domestically, Saudi Arabia has backed its advocacy with action. The Kingdom has committed significant investments to its Saudi Green Initiative, which includes billions of dollars for renewable energy projects, reforestation, and environmental restoration. 

These initiatives underscore Saudi Arabia’s dual focus on addressing domestic climate challenges and contributing to global solutions, according to the draft resolution. 

“Through initiatives like the Saudi Green Initiative, the Kingdom has committed to reducing regional emissions by more than 10 percent and leading the planting of 50 billion trees across the Middle East to combat desertification and foster environmental sustainability,” the document stated.

Speeches came to an end as negotiations at COP29 in Baku reached their final hours. AN Photo/Abdulrahman Bin Shulhub

Carbon Markets: A Saudi priority

Discussions on Article 6 of the Paris Agreement, which governs international carbon trading, have been another focal point of COP29. 

Saudi Arabia has taken a prominent role in shaping the rules for carbon markets, advocating for frameworks that promote transparency and equitable participation.

Under Article 6.2, which covers bilateral cooperation, and Article 6.4, which establishes a centralized mechanism for trading carbon credits, Saudi negotiators emphasized the importance of avoiding double-counting emissions reductions and ensuring environmental integrity. 

These safeguards are essential for building trust in the carbon market as a tool for accelerating emissions reductions.

In the draft resolution on financing released by the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change it is outlined that “Saudi Arabia emphasizes the importance of transparency and equitable participation in Article 6 mechanisms, ensuring that developing nations can benefit from international carbon trading frameworks.”

The Kingdom’s engagement in these discussions reflects its broader ambition to become a regional hub for carbon trading. The Kingdom is advancing projects in carbon capture, utilization, and storage, positioning itself as a leader in leveraging market-based solutions to achieve climate goals. 

These efforts align with the Saudi Green Initiative’s targets for emissions reductions and renewable energy expansion.

A commitment to adaptation

While mitigation often dominates global climate discussions, COP29 has seen renewed attention to adaptation – an area where Saudi Arabia has also contributed actively.

Negotiators are working to refine the Global Goal on Adaptation by developing measurable indicators to track progress.

These metrics aim to ensure that adaptation efforts are effective and responsive to the needs of vulnerable communities.

“Saudi Arabia continues its focus on promoting energy efficiency, a critical pillar of its sustainability agenda, as highlighted by top officials during COP29 discussions,” reads the draft resolution.​

The Kingdom has supported these efforts, emphasizing the importance of integrating local knowledge and traditional practices into adaptation strategies. The Kingdom’s approach aligns with its domestic priorities, which include enhancing resilience to desertification and water scarcity, challenges exacerbated by its arid climate, the document added.

Inclusivity and collaboration

Inclusivity has been a central theme at COP29, and Saudi Arabia has demonstrated its commitment to ensuring diverse voices are part of the climate conversation. The Kingdom supported the draft Baku Workplan, which aims to elevate indigenous peoples and local communities in climate governance.

Domestically, Saudi Arabia has prioritized inclusivity through education and workforce development programs that prepare youth and women for leadership roles in green industries. 

These initiatives are part of broader reforms under Vision 2030, which aims to diversify the economy while ensuring equitable opportunities for all citizens.

COP29 began on Nov. 11. AN Photo/Abdulrahman Bin Shulhub

Regional leadership

Saudi Arabia’s influence extends beyond its national borders. Through the Middle East Green Initiative, the Kingdom is fostering regional cooperation to combat climate change.

The initiative includes ambitious goals to plant 50 billion trees across the Middle East and reduce regional emissions by more than 10 percent.

At COP29, these efforts were presented as examples of how regional action can amplify global progress.

By working closely with other Gulf Cooperation Council countries, Saudi Arabia is also driving investments in renewable energy projects that enhance energy security and sustainability. 

These partnerships underscore the Kingdom’s role as a regional leader in climate action, capable of catalyzing collective efforts to address shared challenges.

Challenges and opportunities ahead

As COP29 approaches its conclusion, much remains to be finalized. The draft decisions on climate finance, carbon markets, and adaptation reflect significant progress but also underscore the complexity of reaching consensus among diverse stakeholders.

Saudi Arabia’s contributions to these discussions demonstrate its ability to balance domestic priorities with international leadership. By advocating for equitable solutions, advancing regional cooperation, and showcasing its own climate successes, the Kingdom has positioned itself as a key player in shaping the global response to climate change.

The conference has marked an important step forward in the global fight against climate change. The agreements under discussion – particularly those on finance and carbon markets – highlight the growing recognition that collective action is essential to achieving the Paris Agreement’s goals.

Saudi Arabia’s active participation in these negotiations underscores its evolving role as a climate leader. 


Saudi cement sales up 5% to 12.84m tonnes amid sustainability drive

Updated 22 November 2024
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Saudi cement sales up 5% to 12.84m tonnes amid sustainability drive

RIYADH: Cement sales in Saudi Arabia saw an annual increase of 4.93 percent in the third quarter of 2024, reaching 12.84 million tonnes, according to recent data.

Figures released by Al-Yamama Cement showed that 96.18 percent of these sales were domestic, with only 3.82 percent being exported.  

The data covers 17 Saudi cement companies, with Al-Yamama Cement holding the largest share of domestic sales at 12.47 percent, amounting to 1.54 million tonnes, despite experiencing a 27.18 percent decline during the period.

With the successful acquisition of Hail Cement Company by Qassim Cement Company, QCC now leads the market with the highest share among its peers at 13.37 percent, or 1.65 million tonnes, moving Al-Yamama Cement to second place.

Saudi Cement, Southern Cement and Yanbu Cement held 8.96 percent, 8.49 percent and 8.18 percent shares of the domestic market respectively.

The highest growth in domestic sales was recorded by Umm Al-Qura Cement, which saw a 69 percent increase to 372,000 tonnes during this period, despite holding a relatively small 3 percent market share.

City Cement’s local sales rose by 52.69 percent annually to 739,000 tonnes, while Tabuk Cement experienced a 27.3 percent increase, reaching 429,000 tonnes.  

In terms of cement exports, Saudi Cement dominated with 80.45 percent of total shipments, amounting to 395,000 tonnes this quarter.  This figure represents a 13.18 percent increase compared to the same quarter last year.   

Najran Cement accounted for 11 percent of exports for the quarter, totaling 54,000 tonnes, marking a 24 percent decline. Eastern Cement with 8.55 percent share saw a 133 percent rise in exports, reaching 42,000 tonnes. 

Saudi Arabia also exported 1.08 million tonnes of clinker during this period, marking a 41 percent decline compared to the same period last year.

Clinker, a crucial intermediate product in cement production, is commonly exported due to its cost-effectiveness. It is more economical to ship it to other countries for final processing into cement than to produce the finished product and then export.

According to a report by AlJazira Capital, the total utilization rate of the cement sector in Saudi Arabia stood at 72.8 percent in September. 

This figure represents the proportion of the cement production capacity that is actively being used to meet demand.

A utilization rate of 72.8 percent indicates that, on average, the cement industry in Saudi Arabia is using just over two-thirds of its available production capacity.

Saudi Arabia is a prominent player in the global cement industry, ranking among the top 10 producers worldwide. The Kingdom’s production capacity has been bolstered by significant investments to meet both domestic demand and export opportunities.

Key factors driving Saudi Arabia’s cement industry include its robust infrastructure development, housing projects, and initiatives under Vision 2030, which aim to diversify the economy and reduce reliance on oil revenues.

Saudi Arabia’s path to decarbonization

In October, Saudi Arabia’s cement sector took a significant leap towards decarbonization with the announcement of a joint venture between the UK’s Next Generation SCM and Nizak Mining Co., a subsidiary of City Cement.

The collaboration is focused on producing supplementary cementitious materials locally, utilizing an innovative, energy-efficient technology.

This new method requires only one-sixth of the fuel compared to conventional cement production and operates at lower temperatures, significantly reducing operational costs and carbon emissions.

The technology already demonstrates a 99 percent reduction in emissions, producing just 8 kg of CO2 per tonne of calcined clay, compared to the global average of 600 kg per tonne.

The joint venture is part of the Kingdom’s broader decarbonization strategy, which is aligned with Vision 2030 and the Saudi Green Initiative.

As part of these proposals, the Kingdom has set an ambitious goal of cutting carbon emissions by 278 million tonnes annually by 2030.

This venture, which will have its first production plant in Riyadh, is expected to produce up to 700,000 tonnes of low-carbon supplementary cementitious materials in its second year of operations, starting in 2025.

The project is also crucial for the domestic production of low-carbon concrete, as traditional SCM alternatives, like fly ash and slag, are not readily available in Saudi Arabia.

The venture will not only help Saudi Arabia meet its sustainability targets but also strengthen its position as a regional hub for low-carbon materials, generating both economic and environmental benefits.

Speaking in October, Majed Al-Osailan, CEO of City Cement, emphasized the long-term impact of the project, stating that it will create jobs, improve access to sustainable building materials, and create export opportunities for the Kingdom.

According to a study by the Boston Consulting Group in September, Saudi Arabia stands to gain a significant competitive advantage in the global cement industry as the sector moves toward decarbonization through carbon capture and storage.

The competitive dynamics of the industry are shifting due to the high costs associated with CCS, which is essential for achieving net-zero emissions by 2050.

One of the primary factors influencing future competitiveness is a plant’s proximity to CO2 storage sites.

Cement plants located within 200 km of CCS hubs could see abatement costs reduced by half compared to those located farther away.

This geographical advantage will be crucial in determining cost competitiveness on a global scale.

Saudi Arabia, with its lower energy costs, is well-positioned to capitalize on this advantage according to the study. The Middle East, in general, benefits from cheaper energy, which could give Saudi plants a $20 per tonne cost advantage in CCS over the global median.

This would allow Saudi Arabia to emerge as a key export hub in the global cement market. 

Plants in the Kingdom that can minimize their CCS abatement costs will be internationally competitive, particularly as global trade dynamics shift and demand grows for low-carbon cement.

Moreover, Saudi Arabia’s energy infrastructure and strategic location near key shipping routes bolster its potential as a regional and global supplier of cement.

With substantial investments in CCS technology and renewables, the Kingdom could not only meet domestic demand but also serve international markets more efficiently, securing its position in the evolving global cement trade.

As the cost of CCS implementation rises, the global competitive landscape will be reshaped, with plants closer to CO2 storage hubs and renewable energy sources becoming more attractive.

Saudi Arabia’s competitive edge, therefore, lies in its ability to leverage its energy resources and strategic location, potentially making it a leader in the export of low-carbon cement solutions.


Oil Updates – crude heads for weekly gains as Ukraine war intensifies

Updated 22 November 2024
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Oil Updates – crude heads for weekly gains as Ukraine war intensifies

LONDON: Oil prices inched lower on Friday, but were on track for a weekly rise of nearly 4 percent, as an intensifying war in Ukraine returned a geopolitical risk premium to oil markets.

Brent crude futures fell 65 cents, or 0.88 percent, to $73.58 a barrel by 4:12 p.m. Saudi time. US West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell by 66 cents, or 0.94 percent, to $69.44 per barrel.

Pressuring prices on Friday, eurozone business activity took a surprisingly sharp turn for the worse this month as the bloc’s dominant services industry contracted and manufacturing sank deeper into recession.

Kazakhstan’s largest oilfield, Tengiz, is scheduled to return to full production in early December, Russian news agency Interfax reported on Friday, while elsewhere Kazakhstan’s energy ministry said it plans to produce 90 million tonnes of oil in 2025, up from 88 million tonnes in 2024.

Both contracts are set for gains of nearly 4 percent this week, as Moscow steps up its Ukraine offensive after Britain and the United States allowed Kyiv to strike deeper into Russia with their missiles.

“The Russia-Ukraine escalation has raised geopolitical tensions beyond levels seen during the year-long conflict between Israel and Iran-backed militants,” Saxo Bank analyst Ole Hansen said on Friday.

He added that rising refinery margins and an incoming cold snap had also supported distillate refinery profit margins, and wider oil prices, this week.

The Kremlin said on Friday that a strike on Ukraine using a newly developed hypersonic ballistic missile was a message to the West that Moscow will respond harshly to any “reckless” Western actions in support of Ukraine.

Ukraine has used drones to target Russian oil infrastructure, for instance in June, when it used long-range attack drones to strike four Russian refineries.

“What the market fears is accidental destruction in any part of oil, gas and refining that not only causes long-term damage but accelerates a war spiral,” said PVM analyst John Evans.

Also supporting prices this week, China announced policy measures on Thursday to boost trade, including support for energy product imports, amid worries over US President-elect Donald Trump’s threats to impose tariffs.

China’s crude oil imports are set to rebound in November, according to analysts, traders and ship tracking data.