Pakistan central bank expected to hold rates on Monday ahead of IMF deal

This file photo, posted on August 7, 2023, shows Pakistan’s central bank and State Bank Museum in Karachi. (Photo courtesy: Facebook/SBP)
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Updated 26 April 2024
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Pakistan central bank expected to hold rates on Monday ahead of IMF deal

  • Median estimate in Reuters poll predicts State Bank will hold rates steady
  • South Asian nation is seeking new long-term, larger IMF bailout program

KARACHI: Pakistan’s central bank is widely expected to hold its key interest rate at a record 22 percent for the seventh straight policy meeting on Monday as Pakistan gears up for an International Monetary Fund board approval and talks on a longer term program.
Monday’s policy decision will be followed by the fund’s executive board meeting to discuss the approval of $1.1 billion in funding for Pakistan, which is the last tranche of a $3 billion standby arrangement with the IMF secured last summer to avert a sovereign default.
The median estimate in a Reuters poll of 14 analysts predicts the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) will hold rates steady.
Four analysts are forecasting a 100-basis-point (bps) cut, while two expect a 50-bps cut on Monday.
Eight respondents expect a rate cut before Pakistan signs a new program with the IMF. There is another MPC meeting on 10 June 2024, which is possibly before Pakistan gets another IMF Programme.
The South Asian nation is seeking a new long-term, larger IMF loan. Pakistan’s Finance Minister, Muhammad Aurangzeb, has said Islamabad will begin talks with the fund next month, and could secure a staff-level agreement on the new program by early July.
Pakistan’s key rate was last raised in June to fight persistent inflationary pressures and to meet one of the conditions set by the IMF for securing the bailout.
Pakistan’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) for March rose 20.7 percent from the year before, slowing down partly due to the “base effect,” touching a record high of 38 percent in May 2023.
Tahir Abbas, head of research at Arif Habib Limited said that the central bank is unlikely to cut rates before getting a new IMF program. “The monetary policy will also consider the inflationary outcome of tensions in the middle east and its impact of fuel prices, along with the Fed’s delay in monetary easing,” he added.
“Expect a symbolic reduction in the current quarter (till June), with aggressive cuts to follow in the September quarter as the government has to roll over approximately 6.7 trillion rupees of maturing domestic treasury bills in the last quarter of the calendar year,” said Mustafa Pasha, CIO of Lakson Investments.
He added that by then there will be greater clarity on inflation and FX inflows. “Historically the SBP has cut rates in the 1st year of an IMF program and we expect the policy rate to settle around 17 percent by December.”


Heatwave-like conditions to prevail in southern Pakistan over next 24 hours — Met Office

Updated 08 April 2025
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Heatwave-like conditions to prevail in southern Pakistan over next 24 hours — Met Office

  • At the same time, a shallow westerly wave, likely to enter upper parts of the country on Tuesday night, may cause rain and thunderstorms in upper regions
  • Pakistan has witnessed frequent, erratic changes in its weather patterns, including floods, droughts and cyclones, that have been blamed on climate change

ISLAMABAD: Heatwave-like conditions will prevail in southern parts of Pakistan over the next 24 hours, the Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) said on Tuesday, urging people to avoid sun exposure and take precautions.
The weather conditions may cause temperatures to rise 4-7°C above normal in central and southern Punjab, Sindh and parts of the Balochistan province.
“General public especially children, women and senior citizens are requested to take precautionary measures. Avoid exposure to sun light during the daytime and get hydrated,” the PMD said in its advisory on Tuesday.
“Farmers are advised to manage their crop activities (wheat harvesting) keeping in view the weather conditions and take care of their livestock as well. Judicious use of water is advised.”
Similarly, the PMD said, a shallow westerly wave is likely to enter upper parts of the country on Tuesday night and may persist till Friday.
The weather system may cause rain-wind/thunderstorm in Chitral, Dir, Swat, Shangla, Kohistan, Mansehra, Abbottabad, Battagram, Bunner, Kurram, Bajaur, Mohmand, Orakzai, Murree, Galliyat, Gilgit-Baltistan, Azad Kashmir, Islamabad, Rawalpindi, Attock, Chakwal, Talagang, Mianwali, Jhelum. Gujrat, Sialkot, Narowal and Lahore during the period, according to the advisory.
Isolated hailstorm may also occur during the forecast period. Dust-storm and gusty winds are also expected in the plains of Punjab, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and upper Sindh during the forecast period.
“Wind-dust-storm/hailstorm and lightning may damage loose structures like electric poles, trees, vehicles and solar panels,” the PMD added.
Pakistan has witnessed frequent, erratic changes in its weather patterns, including floods, droughts, cyclones, torrential rainstorms, heatwaves and the slow-onset threat of glacial melting, in recent years that scientists have blamed on human-driven climate change.
In 2022, unusually heavy rains triggered floods in many parts of the country, killing over 1,700 people, inflicting economic losses of around $30 billion, and affecting at least 30 million people.


After bloodbath a day earlier, Pakistan stocks gain in line with global recovery

Updated 08 April 2025
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After bloodbath a day earlier, Pakistan stocks gain in line with global recovery

  • Pakistan Stock Exchange fell to intraday low of 8,687 points on Monday, largest intraday point-wise drop in PSX history
  • Major stock indexes plunged on Monday after US President Trump announced tariffs on goods imported from the rest of the world

ISLAMABAD: Pakistan stocks closed at 115,532, gaining 623 points (0.54 percent) on Tuesday, a day after the Pakistan Stock Exchange fell to an intraday low of 8,687 points, the largest intraday point-wise drop in PSX history.

Major stock indexes plunged on Monday after US President Donald Trump announced tariffs on goods imported from the rest of the world, saying a 10 percent tariff on all nations and much higher rates of up to 50 percent on individual countries will boost the US economy and protect jobs.

“In line with the global trend, the market saw a recovery,” Topline Securities said in its daily market review. “A total of 526 million shares were traded, with a turnover of Rs 33 billion.”

Major stock markets jumped on Tuesday after three days of heavy selling while US Treasury yields rose for a second day as investors were optimistic that Washington might be willing to negotiate on some of its aggressive tariffs. Oil prices rebounded as well, helping lift energy shares. European shares also rose from 14-month lows on Tuesday after four straight sessions of heavy selling, although investors’ mood remained sensitive to tariff-related developments. Britain’s main indexes also recovered from their lowest levels in more than a year, as investors looked for any indication of Washington softening its stance on the aggressive tariffs that have roiled global markets over the last few days.

Pakistan is sending a commerce ministry team to negotiate a 29 percent tariff on Pakistani goods announced by Washington last week. 


Kabul slams Pakistan’s ‘violence’ against Afghans pressured to leave

Updated 08 April 2025
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Kabul slams Pakistan’s ‘violence’ against Afghans pressured to leave

  • Islamabad canceled the residence permits of hundreds of thousands of Afghans in Pakistan as part of a deportation program
  • Afghan refugees should be allowed to take their wealth, belongings and household goods with them, Afghan refugees ministry says

KABUL: The Taliban government condemned on Tuesday the “violence” used by Pakistan in its new campaign to expel Afghans from the country, accusing Islamabad of using the migrants for “political goals.”
Islamabad canceled the residence permits of hundreds of thousands of Afghans in Pakistan, including many who were born or living for decades there, as part of a deportation program.
“The mistreatment of them (Afghans) by neighboring countries is unacceptable and intolerable,” the Taliban Ministry of Refugees and Repatriation said on X, calling for a joint agreement to facilitate repatriations.
An average of 4,000 Afghans crossed the border from Pakistan on Sunday and Monday, “far higher than the March daily average of just 77,” the International Organization for Migration (IOM) told AFP.
The new phase in Pakistan’s campaign to repatriate Afghans “could affect up to 1.6 million undocumented Afghan migrants and Afghan Citizen Card (ACC) holders during 2025,” the agency said.
The UN says nearly three million Afghans live in Pakistan: 800,000 had their Pakistani ACC residency cards canceled in April and 1.3 million still have residence permits until June 30 because they are registered with the UN refugees agency UNHCR. Others have no papers.
“It is with great regret that Afghan refugees are being subjected to violence,” the Taliban refugees ministry said.
“All refugees should be allowed to take their ho was born in northern Afghanistan, told AFP on Monday after crossing the Torkham border point.
“I had papers and they ripped them up.”
In September 2023, hundreds of thousands of undocumented Afghans poured across the border into Afghanistan in the days leading up to a deadline to leave, after weeks of police raids.
More than 800,000 Afghans by the end of 2024, according UN figures.wealth, belongings, and household goods with them to their own country,” it added.
Afghans crossing the border have told AFP in recent days that they left without being able to take all their belongings or money, while others are rounded up and taken directly to the border.
Human rights activists have for months been reporting harassment and extortion by Pakistani security forces against Afghans.
Moniza Kakar, a lawyer in Pakistan’s largest city Karachi, said, “(Officials) are picking and arresting people randomly, from different places. There is no proper mechanism to shift the whole family,” she told AFP.
Relations between Kabul and Islamabad have soured since the Taliban takeover, fueled by a sharp rise in violence in Pakistan along the Afghan border.
“No one should use refugees as tools for their political goals,” the Afghan refugees ministry added.
Pakistan authorities did not provide immediate comment when contacted by AFP.
“My only crime is that I’m Afghan,” Shah Mahmood, who was born in northern Afghanistan, told AFP on Monday after crossing the Torkham border point.
“I had papers and they ripped them up.”
In September 2023, hundreds of thousands of undocumented Afghans poured across the border into Afghanistan in the days leading up to a deadline to leave, after weeks of police raids.
More than 800,000 Afghans by the end of 2024, according UN figures.


Pakistan to hold five-day anti-polio drive in its northwest starting Apr. 21

Updated 08 April 2025
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Pakistan to hold five-day anti-polio drive in its northwest starting Apr. 21

  • Pakistan has reported six polio cases in the first three months of 2025
  • The latest drive aims to vaccinate over 6 million children in the region

ISLAMABAD: A five-day polio eradication campaign will begin in Pakistan’s northwestern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) province from Apr. 21, Pakistani state media reported on Tuesday, with the drive aimed at vaccinating over 6 million children in the region.
Polio is a paralyzing disease with no cure and multiple doses of the oral polio vaccine, along with completing the routine vaccination schedule for children under five, are essential to provide immunity against the virus.
Pakistan, which has reported six polio cases so far in 2025, planned three major polio campaigns in the first half of 2025, with rounds scheduled for April and May, the Associated Press of Pakistan news agency reported, citing authorities.
“A five-day polio eradication campaign is set to be launched in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa from Apr. 21,” the report read. “According to the provincial health department, more than 800,000 children in the capital city of Peshawar will receive the polio vaccine.”
Over 30,000 teams were formed to participate in the campaign whereas 50,000 police personnel will also be deployed for security purposes, the state news agency reported.
Pakistan’s polio program, launched in 1994, has faced significant challenges, including vaccine misinformation and opposition from some religious hard-liners who claim immunization is a foreign plot to sterilize Muslim children or a cover for Western espionage. Militant groups also frequently attack and kill members of polio vaccination teams.
Last year, Pakistan reported 74 polio cases. Pakistan and Afghanistan are the last two countries where polio remains endemic.


Pakistan’s army vows to protect investors in billion-dollar mining sector in conflict zone

Updated 08 April 2025
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Pakistan’s army vows to protect investors in billion-dollar mining sector in conflict zone

  • Pakistan is hosting a two-day mines and minerals conference with delegates from countries including the United States, China and Saudi Arabia
  • The conference comes weeks after insurgents hijacked a train carrying over 400 passengers, including soldiers, in volatile Balochistan province

ISLAMABAD: Pakistan will provide robust security to protect the interests of investors and partners, its army chief told a minerals conference on Tuesday, amid heightened unrest in key mineral-rich province Balochistan.
Pakistan is hosting a two-day mines and minerals conference with delegates from countries including the United States, China and Saudi Arabia, as well as companies including Barrick Gold and Woods Mackenzie. It is seeking to attract investments in its natural reserves, which are estimated to be worth $6 trillion.
“Pakistan’s army will ensure a robust security framework, (and) proactive measures to protect the interests and trust of partners and investors,” General Asim Munir said.
“You can count on Pakistan as a reliable partner.”
The conference comes weeks after insurgents hijacked a train carrying over 400 passengers, including soldiers, in volatile Balochistan, which borders Iran and Afghanistan.
The majority of Pakistan’s mines, including Reko Diq, which houses one of the world’s largest undeveloped deposits of copper and gold jointly owned by Barrick Gold and Pakistan, are located in the southwestern province.
Barrick Gold estimates Reko Dig has the potential to generate $74 billion in free cash flow over 37 years.
Ethnic Baloch separatists, who have long been running an insurgency in the region, oppose any foreign investment which they say is an attempt by Islamabad to solidify its hold through external players on their regional resources.
They have been fighting for decades for a greater share of local resources, but some of their armed groups now say they will not settle for anything less than a separate homeland.
One of the largest insurgent groups, the Baloch Liberation Army, claimed responsibility for the train hijacking, which resulted in the deaths of 23 soldiers, three railway employees and five passengers. At least 33 insurgents were also killed.
“We welcome international organizations to seek investment opportunities and partnership with us in the development of wider resources,” Munir said.