Islamic finance industry projected to grow in 2024-2025

It predicted that sukuk issuance globally would hover between $160 billion and $170 billion in 2024, representing a steady momentum from $168.4 billion in 2023 to $179.4 billion in 2022. 
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Updated 29 April 2024
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Islamic finance industry projected to grow in 2024-2025

RIYADH: The Islamic finance industry is projected to grow globally in 2024-2025 with total assets likely to witness single-digit growth driven by economic diversification efforts, a report said.

It predicted that sukuk issuance globally would hover between $160 billion and $170 billion in 2024, representing a steady momentum from $168.4 billion in 2023 to $179.4 billion in 2022. 

In its latest analysis, credit rating agency S&P Global highlighted that the industry grew by 8 percent and 8.2 percent in 2023 and 2022, respectively, stemming from growth in banking assets and the sukuk industry. 

According to the US-based firm, Islamic banking assets grew 56 percent in 2023 compared to 72 percent in 2022. 

Financial institutions across the Gulf Cooperation Council region accounted for 86 percent of the reserve increase in 2023, with Saudi Arabia becoming the chief contributor, having generated 56.7 percent of the maturation. 

“We expect the implementation of Vision 2030 and growth in corporate and mortgage lending to continue supporting the Islamic finance industry over the next 12-24 months. In addition, the UAE showed a stronger contribution in 2023 thanks to the good performance of the non-oil sector,” the report noted.

It added: “Elsewhere, we observed some growth, particularly in Turkiye and Indonesia. The performance in Malaysia and Turkiye was somewhat tempered by the depreciation of the ringgit and the lira.” 

According to the US-based firm, the issuance of this Shariah-compliant debt product began on a strong footing in 2024, with Saudi Arabia becoming a key contributor to the performance. 

“The drop in issuance volumes in 2023, which mainly resulted from tighter liquidity conditions in Saudi Arabia’s banking system and Indonesia’s lower fiscal deficit, was somewhat compensated by an increase in foreign currency-denominated sukuk issuance,” S&P Global said in the report. 

It added: “The market has started 2024 on a strong footing, with total issuance reaching $46.8 billion at March 31, 2024, compared with $38.2 billion at March 31, 2023.” 

The analysis highlighted that the sukuk market will continue its growth momentum in the near term as financing needs in core Islamic finance countries remain high, given ongoing economic transformation programs, especially in countries like Saudi Arabia. 

“We expect the sukuk market to fill in some of these needs. Specifically, we see some opportunities in the structured finance space with banks tapping the sukuk market to refinance their sizable mortgage books,” said the agency in the report. 

The agency highlighted that the drive for digitalization and sustainability initiatives have yielded mixed results in the Islamic finance industry. 

“While opportunities related to sustainable finance are significant as the industry is concentrated in oil exporting countries, progress has been relatively slow and limited in the global context,” according to S&P Global. 

However, the report noted that digitalization has helped the banking side of the industry. 

S&P Global concluded the study by saying that the future of Islamic finance is sustainable, collaborative, and digital. 

“It is sustainable thanks to the alignment between Shariah principles, overarching pillars of sustainability, and the value proposition of Islamic finance that capture more than just financial objectives,” said the report. 

According to the analysis, the future of Islamic finance is collaborative because stakeholders do not want to disrupt the industry equilibrium and erase the development achieved over the past 50 years. 

The report added that digitalization will also impact Islamic finance in the coming years, as leveraging emerging technologies could help the industry enhance its efficiency and ultimately increase its value proposition for investors and issuers. 

Earlier this month, another report released by Fitch Ratings noted that global outstanding sukuk expanded 10 percent year on year to reach $867 million at the end of the first quarter of 2024. 

The credit rating agency attributed the growth of this Islamic debt product to funding and refinancing needs, and the development of the debt capital market in the GCC region. 

The report, however, added that new Shariah requirements that could alter credit risk, geopolitical uncertainties and high oil prices, could affect the growth of the sukuk market this year. 


IMF warns of economic slowdown, but rules out global recession

Updated 17 April 2025
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IMF warns of economic slowdown, but rules out global recession

WASHINGTON: Rising trade tensions and sweeping shifts in the global trading system will trigger downward revisions of the IMF’s economic forecasts but no global recession is expected, the lender’s managing director said on Thursday.

Kristalina Georgieva said countries’ economies were being tested by a reboot of the global trading system — sparked in recent months by US tariffs and retaliation by China and the EU — that had unleashed “off the charts” uncertainty in trade policy and extreme volatility in financial markets.

“Disruptions entail costs ... our new growth projections will include notable markdowns but not recession,” she said in prepared remarks, adding the outlook would also include higher inflation forecasts for some countries.

“To quote from the ‘Wizard of Oz,’ we’re not in Kansas anymore,” Georgieva told IMF staff and reporters at the IMF headquarters in Washington ahead of the spring meetings of the IMF and World Bank next week.

Elevated uncertainty also raised the risk of financial market stress, Georgieva said, noting that recent movements in US Treasury yield curves should be taken as a warning. “Everyone suffers if financial conditions worsen,” she said.

US President Donald Trump has upended the global trading system with a tsunami of new tariffs, including a 10 percent US duty on goods from all countries and higher rates for some, although those have been paused for 90 days to allow negotiations. China, the EU and other countries have announced retaliatory measures.

The IIMF in January forecast global growth of 3.3 percent in 2025 and 3.3 percent in 2026. It will release an updated World Economic Outlook on Tuesday.

Georgieva, speaking at IMF headquarters in Washington ahead of the spring meetings of the IMF and World Bank next week, gave no details about the expected revisions, but warned that prolonged uncertainty would be costly and said the consequences of the trade reboot would be “significant.”

Georgieva said trade tensions had been bubbling for some time, but were now boiling over, and urged countries to respond wisely to the “sudden and sweeping shifts” seen in tariffs, driving the US effective tariff rate to levels last seen several lifetimes ago and resulting in response by other countries.

“As the giants face off, smaller countries are caught in the cross currents,” Georgieva said. China, the EU and the US were the world’s three largest importers, which meant big spillovers for smaller countries that were more exposed to tighter financial conditions, she said.

Rising tariffs hit growth upfront, she said, noting that past evidence showed that higher tariff rates were paid by importers through lower profits and consumers through higher costs.

In big economies, they could also create incentives for new inward investment, creating new jobs, but this took time.

“Protectionism erodes productivity over the long run, especially in smaller economies,” she said, warning that moves to shield industry from competition also undercut entrepreneurship and hurt innovation.

Georgieva urge countries to continue economic and financial reforms while maintaining agile and credible monetary policy, as well as strong financial market regulation and supervision.

Emerging market economies should preserve their exchange rate flexibility, and donor countries should better protect aid flows to vulnerable low-income countries, she added.

Georgieva also called for cooperation in an increasingly multi-polar world, and urged the largest economies to reach a trade settlement that preserved openness and restarted a global trend toward lower tariff rates and reduced non-tariff barriers.

“We need a more resilient world economy, not a drift to division,” she said. “All countries, large and small alike, can and should play their part to strengthen the global economy in an era of more frequent and severe shocks.”


Libyans grapple with fresh currency devaluation

Updated 17 April 2025
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Libyans grapple with fresh currency devaluation

  • Libyans are facing a sharp deterioration in their purchasing power after a sudden devaluation of the Libyan dinar
  • Libya has Africa’s most abundant hydrocarbon reserves, but it is struggling to recover from years of conflict since 2011

TRIPOLI: Already worn down by years of political turmoil and economic hardships, Libyans are now facing a sharp deterioration in their purchasing power after a sudden devaluation of the Libyan dinar.
Experts have said the national currency’s exchange rate decline came as a consequence of ballooning public expenditures by the country’s rival governments in recent years.
Libya has Africa’s most abundant hydrocarbon reserves, but it is struggling to recover from years of conflict after the 2011 NATO-backed uprising that overthrew longtime dictator Muammar Qaddafi.
It is currently divided between a UN-recognized government in the capital Tripoli and a rival administration in the east backed by general Khalifa Haftar, with the division exacerbating the country’s economic woes.
The Libyan central bank earlier this month devalued the dinar by 13.3 percent, the second such move in five years.
The exchange rate went up to 5.56 dinars to the US dollar from 4.48 — while on the black market it jumped to 7.80 dinars to the US dollar from 6.90.

It has become hard to keep up with our needs for food, medicine, transportation, education and bills

Karim Achraf, Libyan engineer

The impact was immediate, with small business owners and wholesale traders, who rely heavily on the parallel market to obtain foreign currency for imports, seeing their costs surge.
“The currency keeps going down,” said Karim Achraf, a 27-year-old engineer and father of three living in the capital, Tripoli.
“It has become hard to keep up with our needs for food, medicine, transportation, education and bills,” he said.
“We can’t trust our governments with our economy and safety.”
Political deadlock
Despite its vast oil reserves, output remains below pre-2011 levels and the country lacks a robust industrial and agricultural sector.
It is almost entirely dependent on imported food, medical supplies and consumer goods, with oil exports its main source of revenue.
The United Nations Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL) has expressed alarm following the sudden devaluation, urging both administrations to take “urgent measures to stabilize the national economy.”
“Swift action is essential to reduce the negative impact on the Libyan people, including rising costs of living, declining purchasing power and the erosion of public trust in state institutions and leaders,” it said in a statement.
In Tripoli, dozens of protesters recently gathered outside the central bank headquarters to voice their anger.

Libya's central bank was forced to make the decision to protect what remained of the dinar’s strength

Mahmoud El-Tijani, an economist

But while much of the criticism has been aimed at the bank, some believe it is unfairly blamed for problems stemming from political deadlock and fiscal mismanagement.
Mahmoud El-Tijani, a Libyan economist, said the central bank was “a victim of the executive branch’s failure and division.”
He said it was “forced to make the decision to protect what remained of the dinar’s strength.”
Amid falling oil revenues, the devaluation of the dinar was used as a “last-chance measure to avoid bankruptcy and external debt,” he added.
Libya’s institutions, including its central bank, have for a decade found themselves caught between the rival governments.
Until 2023, the bank was split in two, with an internationally recognized headquarters in the capital and another in the east, with each printing bills signed off by their respective governors.
Last year, the then-governor of the bank fled amid violent tensions surrounding the institution, with the United Nations stepping in to broker a deal for a new governor to be appointed.
Central bank
Jalel Harchaoui, a senior fellow at the London-based Royal United Services Institute, said the central bank was “simply confronting the inevitable consequences of the political choices made by Libya’s ruling factions.”
“These enormous expenditures are highly political, arbitrary, and unsustainable,” he said.
“They are not decided by the central bank, which is a technocratic institution without the military or sociopolitical clout of Libya’s leaders.”
“Blaming the central bank is pure populism,” Harchaoui added, describing the bank as “a scapegoat.”
Anwar Al-Turki, a banker in Tripoli, said the central bank was being “mistreated” by political leaders who had authorized “the highest public spending in modern Libyan history.”
He said the decision makers had little regard for “good governance, financial compliance, or anti-corruption.”


Closing Bell: Saudi main index closes in red at 11,502

Updated 17 April 2025
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Closing Bell: Saudi main index closes in red at 11,502

RIYADH: Saudi Arabia’s Tadawul All Share Index dipped on Thursday, losing 81.44 points, or 0.7 percent, to close at 11,552.98.

The total trading turnover of the benchmark index was SR4.72 billion ($1.25 billion), as 44 stocks advanced, while only 202 retreated.

The MSCI Tadawul Index decreased by 10.51 points, or 0.71 percent, to close at 1,469.39.

The Kingdom’s parallel market, Nomu, dipped, losing 369.85 points, or 1.27 percent, to close at 28,713.72. This comes as 29 stocks advanced while 60 retreated.

This aligns with a dip in global stock markets with the ongoing worldwide trade war following US President Donald Trump’s reciprocal tariffs introduced earlier this month.

For instance, the Nasdaq index dipped 3.07 percent in the trading session on April 16, closing at 16,307.16, losing 516.01 points.

The best-performing stock was Alistithmar AREIC Diversified REIT Fund with its share price surging by 10 percent to SR6.60.

Other top performers included Dar Alarkan Real Estate Development Co., which saw its share price rise by 3.82 percent to SR22.84, and Allied Cooperative Insurance Group, which saw a 3.44 percent increase to SR16.22.

Al Mawarid Manpower Co. and Jabal Omar Development Co. also saw increases in today’s trading session, with their share prices advancing by 2.10 percent and 1.82 percent to SR145.60 and SR23.52, respectively.

The day’s worst performer was Al-Baha Investment and Development Co., whose share price fell 5.74 percent to SR3.12.

Middle East Specialized Cables Co. and Lazurde Co. for Jewelry also saw declines, with their shares dropping by 4.83 percent each to SR35.50 and SR13.40, respectively.

The top four and five worst performers were Raoom Trading Co. and Saudi Printing and Packaging Co., whose share prices dipped by 4.48 percent and 4.36 percent to SR78.90 and SR10.52, respectively.


Red Sea tensions slash Suez Canal revenue as Egypt pushes diplomatic path

Updated 17 April 2025
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Red Sea tensions slash Suez Canal revenue as Egypt pushes diplomatic path

JEDDAH: Amid escalating tensions in the Red Sea, Egypt’s Prime Minister Mostafa Madbouly reaffirmed the country’s commitment to diplomatic solutions as disruptions to international shipping through the Suez Canal led to a dip in revenues.

Speaking at a high-level ceremony on April 16 celebrating the Suez Canal Authority’s Day of Excellence, Madbouly warned that regional instability has already had a significant impact on global trade, with Suez Canal revenues falling to $3.99 billion in 2024 — a stark drop from the record $10.25 billion recorded in 2023.

The decline follows a wave of attacks by Yemen’s Houthis on commercial shipping in the Red Sea, part of the group’s protest against the Gaza conflict. Between November 2023 and January 2024, they targeted over 100 merchant vessels.

Despite these challenges, Madbouly emphasized Egypt’s role as a stabilizing force, asserting that Cairo has deliberately avoided any actions that might undermine regional security. “Egypt has opted for a path of political solutions, working with international partners to address the crisis while ensuring the continued functioning of the canal,” he said in a statement.

The prime minister described the canal as “the heart of global trade,” underlining its historic and strategic value not only to Egypt but to international commerce.

He credited President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi’s leadership for ongoing development efforts, including modernizing the canal’s infrastructure and services.

The Suez Canal Authority also unveiled several new initiatives during the ceremony, including a ship waste management service in partnership with V Group, which aims to position the canal as a certified green route by 2030. Additional projects launched included the region’s first floating pontoon factory and the Suez Canal Innovation and Excellence Center.

In a show of international cooperation, Madbouly witnessed the signing of a memorandum of understanding with Spain’s Tejedor Lazaro Group to advance aquaculture and fish feed production — a move aligned with Egypt’s broader food security and investment strategy.

SCA Chairman Osama Rabie thanked the government for its backing and pointed to signs of recovery. He said 264 vessels had returned to transiting the canal instead of rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope since February, attributing this shift to adaptive marketing strategies and client engagement.

March 2025 brought modest gains: vessel transits rose by 2.4 percent, net tonnage increased by 7.1 percent, and revenue grew by 8.8 percent compared to January.

Despite headwinds including the COVID-19 pandemic and regional conflicts, Rabie highlighted the canal’s resilience. From 2019 to 2024, more than 121,000 ships passed through the waterway, carrying over 7.1 billion tons of cargo and generating nearly $40 billion in revenue.

The Day of Excellence event was attended by several ministers, foreign ambassadors, and maritime officials, underscoring the canal’s global relevance.


Pakistan external account posts record monthly surplus, buoying investor confidence

Updated 17 April 2025
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Pakistan external account posts record monthly surplus, buoying investor confidence

  • Current account posts a record and one of the highest monthly surpluses in March 2025 with $1.19 billion, up 229% year-on-year
  • Pakistan stocks concluded Thursday’s session on bullish note, with KSE-100 Index advancing by 881 points to close at 116,901 level

KARACHI: The State Bank of Pakistan said on Thursday the country’s current account, which comprises external trade and transfers, had posted a record and one of the highest monthly surpluses in March 2025 with $1.19 billion, up 229% year-on-year.
The Pakistan Stock Exchange also concluded Thursday’s session on a bullish note, with the KSE-100 Index advancing by 881 points, or 0.76%, to close at 116,901 level. 
“Investor sentiment was buoyed by record-high remittances, which contributed to a historic current account surplus in March 2025. The surplus for the first nine months of FY25 reached $1.9 billion,” Topline securities said in a statement. 
The surplus in March 2024 stood at $363 million, the latest central bank data showed. 
On Monday, Central Bank governor Jameel Ahmad had said the current account would show a “substantial” surplus this year through June mainly on the back of a record inflow of remittances which crossed the $4 billion mark in March, with Saudi Arabia once again topping the list of biggest contributors.
“With record monthly surplus in March 2025, cumulative surplus in country’s Current Account for 9MFY25 (Jul-Mar25) now stands at $1.86 billion, which was in a deficit of $1.65 billion in the same period last year,” SBP said. 
In March 2025, Pakistan’s exports recorded at $3.51 billion, growing 8.7% YoY and 6.0% MoM. Imports also rose 8.0% YoY to $5.92 billion in March but fell 1.9% MoM.
“Resultantly, while Trade Deficit (Goods+Services) went up 7% YoY, it narrowed 11.5% MoM in March 2025,” the data showed. 
For 9MFY25 (Jul-Mar25), total exports now stand at $30.9 billion, up 8.1% YoY, while total imports stand at $51.9 billion, up 10.7% YoY, with the cumulative trade deficit at $21.1 billion, up 14.7% YoY. 
“With oil prices down, and remittances continuing to make a record mark, Pakistan’s current account is expected to be in deep surplus by June FY25 and may also continue in FY26, thereby resulting in further scale-up in overall investor confidence,” the central bank said. 
Pakistan received a record-high $4.1 billion in remittances in March 2025, which bodes well for the government’s efforts to revive an economy that it expects will expand three percent this year, SBP governor Ahmad said at an event at the Pakistan Stock Exchange in Karachi on Monday.
The central bank had earlier projected economic growth to range from 2.5% to 3.5%.
“With this level of remittances, we are hoping that for the current fiscal year our current account will stay in surplus,” the governor said. “There will be a substantial surplus and this surplus is the best performance, I will say, on the external account during the last two decades.”
The country broke its own record in February when overseas Pakistanis remitted $3.1 billion.