LONDON: Millions of voters in England and Wales will cast their ballots on Thursday in an array of local elections that will be the last big test before a U.K. general election that all indicators show will see the Conservative Party ousted from power after 14 years.
Prime Minister Rishi Sunak will hope he can point to successes, notably in a couple of key mayoral races, to douse talk that the Conservative Party will change leader again before the United Kingdom's main election, which could take place as soon as next month.
On the other hand, Labour Party leader Keir Starmer will hope Thursday's local elections confirm what opinion polls have shown for two years — that Labour is on course for power for the first time since 2010.
“The national context going into these local elections is very good for Labour and very bad for the Conservatives,” said Rob Ford, professor of politics at the University of Manchester.
As is often the case in British local elections, the run-up is about expectation management, so any outperformance can be painted as a success.
That's certainly the case with the Conservatives, who are widely predicted to lose around half of the 1,000 seats they are contesting. They have pointed out, for example, that the equivalent elections were held in 2021 when the government of then Prime Minister Boris Johnson was riding high following the rollout of the coronavirus vaccines.
Thursday's elections are important in themselves — voters decide who will run many aspects of their daily lives, such as bin collections, the state of the roads and local crime prevention measures, for the coming years.
But with a general election looming, they will be viewed through a national prism.
Here are five things to know:
What's happening?
Voters in England and Wales will go to the polls for local, mayoral, and police and crime commissioner elections.
The voting is the final test of public opinion before the general election, which has to take place by January 2025 but which Sunak, who has the power to decide on the date, has indicated will be in the second half of 2024.
As well as a number of mayoral votes, including in London where Sadiq Khan is expected to win a third term, there are more than 100 elections to local councils and nearly 40 for local police and crime commissioners.
There's also a special parliamentary election in Blackpool South, a long-time Labour seat that went Conservative in the last election in 2019, when Johnson won a big victory. The results will be announced in coming days. London's mayoral result isn't due until Saturday.
No elections are taking place in Scotland or Northern Ireland, the other constituent nations of the U.K.
What's at stake for Sunak?
Potentially his job. Sunak replaced Liz Truss, who quit after 45 days following a budget of unfunded tax cuts that roiled financial markets and sent borrowing costs for homeowners surging.
Sunak, who warned about the economic implications of Truss' plan, was supposed to be a steady hand after taking the top job in October 2022. If opinion polls are right, he's not improved the Conservatives' ratings, which had even prior to Truss, been battered by the circus surrounding Johnson, who was ousted over a series of ethics scandals.
With the Conservatives seemingly headed for one of their biggest-ever electoral defeats, there's mounting speculation Sunak may face a leadership battle if Thursday's elections are really bad.
Key to his survival could be the mayoral elections in the West Midlands and Tees Valley in the northeast of England. Should Conservative mayors Andy Street and Ben Houchen hold on, he may win some respite from restive lawmakers in his party. Should both lose, he may face trouble.
Is Labour headed for power?
In historical terms, Labour has a mountain to climb if it's going to form the next government.
It's performance in 2019 was its worst since 1935. Starmer has tried to bring the party back to the center of British politics after the five-year leadership of veteran left-winger Jeremy Corbyn.
Starmer's cautious approach has clearly worked if opinion polls are anything to go by. But it's fair to say that enthusiasm levels are far lower than those that heralded the arrival of Tony Blair ahead of the 1997 general election.
That may be partly due to the more challenging economic backdrop, but Starmer, formerly a human rights lawyer, lacks the razzmatazz of his predecessor. Even so, Starmer will hope Labour notches up big wins in areas it lost under Corbyn, in the north of England and in the Midlands.
One point of concern is how many traditionally Labour supporters in Muslim communities fail to vote in protest at the party's stance over the conflict in Gaza.
Are voters being tactical?
One of the contributing factors to Blair's landslide victory in 1997 came from so-called tactical voting, whereby some voters put aside their preferred political party and back whoever they think is most likely to defeat the Conservative candidate.
Tactical voting has reemerged in recent years and could become key in the general election. It usually involves voters sympathetic to Labour in parts of the country, such as southwest England, backing the much-smaller Liberal Democrats and Liberal Democrat supporters loaning votes to Labour in the Midlands and the north of England.
Conservative lawmakers across the U.K., even in supposedly safe seats, will be hugely concerned if voters think more tactically.
Pincer from the right?
The Conservatives don't just face a challenge from the left. Reform UK is trying to outflank it from the right.
Though it is standing in a few seats, Conservatives will worry that support for the party will see Labour and others come through the middle.
Reform UK, which claims to be tougher on issues such as immigration and on Brexit, has said it won't stand aside to give incumbent Conservative lawmakers an easier chance at the general election, as its former incarnation, The Brexit Party, did in 2019. The Blackpool South special election will be particularly interesting on that front.
What is at stake in UK local voting ahead of a looming general election
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What is at stake in UK local voting ahead of a looming general election
Prayers and tears for Eid in Myanmar’s quake-hit Mandalay
- The Muslims of Mandalay gathered for a somber first prayer of the Eid Al-Fitr festival, three days after a devastating 7.7-magnitude earthquake
- The minaret of the Sajja South mosque in the Muslim neighborhood of Mawyagiwah crashed to the ground in the quake, killing 14 children and two adults
Mandalay: Hundreds of grieving Muslims gathered for Eid prayers in the street in Mandalay on Monday, the death and destruction of Myanmar’s huge earthquake casting a pall of anguish over the occasion.
The watching women were the first to weep. A tear, a sniffle, a cry. The emotion spread among hundreds of men lined up in the street outside two mosques where 20 of their fellow believers died.
Sobs and sighs haunted the air in the gentle morning light. Finally the imam’s voice broke as he prayed for the souls of the dead.
“May Allah grant us all peace,” he intoned. “May all the brothers be free from danger.”
The Muslims of Mandalay gathered for a somber first prayer of the Eid Al-Fitr festival, marking the end of the fasting month of Ramadan, three days after a devastating 7.7-magnitude earthquake struck during Friday prayers.
The minaret of the Sajja South mosque in the Muslim neighborhood of Mawyagiwah crashed to the ground in the quake, killing 14 children and two adults, locals said.
Four more people were killed at the neighboring Sajja North mosque when its tower came down.
Many of the dead were from Win Thiri Aung’s family, close and extended.
“In normal times, it is full of joy when it is Eid,” the 26-year-old told AFP.
“Our hearts are light. This year, we are not like that. All of our minds are with the dead children. I see their faces in my eyes.
“We believe the souls of children and everyone we know who died have reached Paradise. We believe they were blessed deaths,” she said, breaking down.
“It is a test from Allah. It is a reminder from him that we need to turn toward him. So we need to pray more.”
Outside the alley leading to the mosques, the Eid worshippers, many wearing the new clothes that are the traditional gift for the festival, lined up on plastic sheeting laid on the road, held in place by bricks.
A plastic bucket served for ritual washing.
“We have to pray on the road, feeling sadness and loss,” said Aung Myint Hussein, chief administrator of the Sajja North mosque.
“The situation is so dire that it’s hard to express what is happening.
“We were terrified when we saw the destruction. It feels as if our entire lives have been shattered by this series of tremors and fears.”
The pattern of destruction in Myanmar’s second city is variable, with some buildings utterly devastated and a few areas of concentrated damage.
Down the street from the mosques, a resident said six people were killed when a dessert shop collapsed, as well as two people in a restaurant across the road.
But much of the city appeared unharmed, with traffic on the streets, some restaurants reopening and daytime life beginning to return to normal for many.
That is a distant prospect for those who have lost loved ones.
Sandar Aung’s 11-year-old son Htet Myet Aung was seriously injured at Friday prayers and died that evening in hospital.
“I am very sad, my son was very excited for Eid,” the 37-year-old said tearfully. “We got new clothes that we were going to wear together.
“We accept what Allah has planned,” she said. “Allah only does what’s good and what’s right and we have to accept that.”
Russia pounds Kharkiv for second night in row, Ukraine says
- The attacks on Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second-largest city, lasted most of the night and hit the city’s largest and oldest district
Russia bombed the city of Kharkiv in northeastern Ukraine for the second night in row, injuring two people, sparking fires and damaging a kindergarten and private houses, Ukrainian officials said early on Monday.
The attacks on Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second-largest city, lasted most of the night and hit the city’s largest and oldest district, Mayor Ihor Terekhov said.
“The sixth explosion in Kharkiv,” Terekhov said in a post on the Telegram messaging app at 0255 GMT on Monday.
It was not clear what was targeted in the attacks that came a week after a US-brokered partial ceasefire on strikes on energy and Black Sea infrastructure. Both sides have accused each other of breaking the moratorium.
Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky on Sunday said Moscow had fired more than 1,000 drones in the past week and called for a response from the US and other allies. Russia said Ukraine’s drones attacked energy facilities last week.
Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022 and has waged a bloody and brutal three-year war. Both sides deny targeting civilians, saying their attacks are aimed t destroying each other’s infrastructure crucial to war efforts.
Over the weekend a Russian drone strike on Kharkiv killed two people and wounded 35, Ukrainian official said.
Oleh Sinehubov, governor of the Kharkiv region, said on Monday that the overnight attacks followed a late Sunday missile strike on the city of Kupiansk that left three injured and demolished more than 10 houses and a local cemetery.
Kupiansk, east of Kharkiv, was seized by Russia early in the invasion of Ukraine and recaptured by Ukrainian troops later that year. It has now come under new, intense Russian pressure.
There was no immediate comment from Moscow on the attacks.
Elon Musk hands out $1 million payments after Wisconsin Supreme Court declines request to stop him
- which will determine the ideological makeup of a court likely to decide key issues in a perennial battleground state
- The race which will determine the ideological makeup of a court likely to decide key issues in a perennial battleground state
GREEN BAY, Wisconsin: Elon Musk gave out $1 million checks on Sunday to two Wisconsin voters, declaring them spokespeople for his political group, ahead of a Wisconsin Supreme Court election that the tech billionaire cast as critical to President Donald Trump’s agenda and “the future of civilization.”
“It’s a super big deal,” he told a roughly 2,000-person crowd in Green Bay on Sunday night, taking the stage in a yellow cheesehead hat. “I’m not phoning it in. I’m here in person.”
Musk and groups he supports have spent more than $20 million to help conservative favorite Brad Schimel in Tuesday’s race, which will determine the ideological makeup of a court likely to decide key issues in a perennial battleground state. Musk has increasingly become the center of the contest, with liberal favorite Susan Crawford and her allies protesting Musk and what they say is the influence he wants to have on the court.
“I think this will be important for the future of civilization,” he said. “It’s that’s significant.”
He noted that the state high court may well take up redistricting of congressional districts, which could ultimately affect which party controls the US House.
“And if the (Wisconsin) Supreme Court is able to redraw the districts, they will gerrymander the district and deprive Wisconsin of two seats on the Republican side,” Musk said. “Then they will try to stop all the government reforms we are getting done for you, the American people.”
A unanimous state Supreme Court on Sunday refused to hear a last-minute attempt by the state’s Democratic attorney general to stop Musk from handing over the checks to two voters, a ruling that came just minutes before the planned start of the rally.
Two lower courts had already rejected the legal challenge by Democrat Josh Kaul, who argues that Musk’s offer violates a state law. “Wisconsin law prohibits offering anything of value to induce anyone to vote,” Kaul argued in his filing. “Yet, Elon Musk did just that.”
But the state Supreme Court, which is currently controlled 4-3 by liberal justices, declined to take the case as an original action. The court gave no rationale for its decision.
Kaul had no immediate comment on the court’s order.
Musk’s attorneys argued in filings with the court that Musk was exercising his free speech rights with the giveaways and any attempt to restrict that would violate both the Wisconsin and US constitutions.
The payments are “intended to generate a grassroots movement in opposition to activist judges, not to expressly advocate for or against any candidate,” Musk’s attorneys argued in court filings.
Musk’s political action committee used a nearly identical tactic before the presidential election last year, offering to pay $1 million a day to voters in Wisconsin and six other battleground states who signed a petition supporting the First and Second amendments. A judge in Pennsylvania said prosecutors failed to show the effort was an illegal lottery and allowed it to continue through Election Day.
Liberals currently hold a 4-3 majority on the court. All four liberal justices have endorsed Dane County Judge Susan Crawford, the Democratic-backed candidate.
Musk’s attorneys, about four hours before the rally was to begin, asked that two liberal justices who have campaigned for Crawford — Jill Karofsky and Rebecca Dallet — recuse themselves from the case. His attorneys argued their work for Crawford creates “the specter of inappropriate bias.” If they did recuse, that would leave the court with a 3-2 conservative majority.
Both justices rejected the request and said they would spell out their reasons why at a later date.
One of the court’s conservative justices has endorsed Schimel, who wore a “Make America Great Again” hat while campaigning Sunday.
Schimel said in a national television interview that he does not control “any of the spending from any outside group, whether it’s Elon Musk or anyone else” and that all Trump asked was whether he would “reject activist judges” and follow the law.
“That’s exactly what I’ve committed to anybody, whether it’s President Trump, Elon Musk or any donors and donors or supporters or voters in Wisconsin. That’s my commitment,” Schimel told “Fox News Sunday.”
The contest has shattered national spending records for a judicial election, with more than $81 million in spending.
It comes as Wisconsin’s highest court is expected to rule on abortion rights, congressional redistricting, union power and voting rules that could affect the 2026 midterms and the 2028 presidential election in the state.
France’s far right leader Le Pen faces verdict that could end presidential hopes
- The far-right leader is accused of engaging in an alleged fake jobs scam at the EU parliament
- Prosecutors have asked the court to issue her with both a jail sentence and a ban from holding public office
PARIS: A French court on Monday will rule in the trial of far-right leader Marine Le Pen over an alleged fake jobs scam at the EU parliament, a verdict which could ruin her chances of standing in the next presidential elections in two years.
Three-time presidential candidate Le Pen, who scents her best-ever chance to win the French presidency in 2027, has vehemently denied any wrongdoing.
But prosecutors in the case, which also targets other top National Rally (RN) officials, have asked the court to issue Le Pen with both a jail sentence and a ban from holding public office.
The latter should come into force immediately even if she appeals, according to the demand made by prosecutors last year, essentially disqualifying her from the presidential polls in two years if the court follows the request.
Le Pen said in a piece for the La Tribune Dimanche newspaper published on Sunday that the verdict gives the “judges the right of life or death over our movement.”
But referring to her potential immediate barring from standing for office, she added: “I do not think that they will go that far.”
As well as a five-year ban on holding office, prosecutors asked that Le Pen be given five years in prison — with three suspended and the two years potentially served outside of jail with a bracelet — and a 300,000 euro ($324,000) fine.
With her RN emerging as the single largest party in parliament after the 2024 legislative elections, Le Pen believes she has the momentum to finally take the Elysee in 2027 on the back of public concern over immigration and the cost of living.
Polls currently predict she would easily top the first round of voting and make the run-off.
If successful in 2027, she could join a growing number of hard- and far-right leaders around the world ranging from Giorgia Meloni in Italy to Hungary’s Viktor Orban.
Should she be condemned, waiting in the wings is her protege and RN party leader Jordan Bardella, just 29, who is not under investigation in the case.
Bardella last week became the first RN party leader to visit Israel, invited by the government to address a conference on the fight against anti-Semitism in a trip denounced by opponents as hypocrisy.
But there are doubts even within the party over the so-called “Plan B” and whether he has the experience for a presidential campaign.
Le Pen took over as head of the then-National Front (FN) in 2011 but rapidly took steps toward making the party an electoral force and shaking off the controversial legacy of its co-founder and her father Jean-Marie Le Pen, who died earlier this year and who was often accused of making racist and anti-Semitic comments.
She renamed it the National Rally and embarked on a policy known as “dediabolization” (de-demonization) with the stated aim of making it acceptable to a wider range of voters.
Political death
Besides Le Pen, the RN is also in the dock and risks a fine of 4.3 million euros ($4.6 million), less than half of which would be suspended.
A total of 24 people are on trial, including nine former members of the European Parliament and their 12 parliamentary assistants.
A shocked Le Pen said after the prosecutors’ demands were announced that they were seeking “my political death” and accused them of denying the French a free choice at the next elections.
But prosecutors have insisted there has been no “harassment” of the RN.
They accuse the party of easing pressure on its own finances by using all of the 21,000-euro monthly allowance to which MEPs were entitled to pay “fictitious” parliamentary assistants, who actually worked for the party.
And prosecutors argue its “organized” nature was “strengthened” when Marine Le Pen took over as party leader in 2011.
According to an Ifop poll published by the Journal du Dimanche newspaper, Le Pen would win 34-37 percent in the first round of the next presidential elections. Her fate in the run-off second round would likely depend on whether all her opponents united to vote against her.
But with President Emmanuel Macron unable to stand again, it is far from clear who the strongest candidate will be from the center and traditional right to succeed him.
One possible hopeful, powerful Justice Minister Gerald Darmanin, said in November while still a backbencher that it would be “profoundly shocking” if Le Pen could not stand.
Advancing Trump agenda depends on spending cuts, says conservative Republican senator
- Johnson wants to scale back total federal outlays from an estimated $7 trillion this year to a $4.4 trillion level seen in 2019
- Several Senate Republicans want far larger reductions than the House target to pay for the Trump agenda and address the $36.6 trillion US debt
WASHINGTON: A prominent conservative senator predicted on Sunday that Donald Trump’s tax-cuts and immigration agenda will not advance in the US Senate unless the president and Republican leaders agree to slash federal spending to a level last seen before the COVID-19 pandemic.
Republican Ron Johnson, a member of the Senate’s budget and tax-writing committees, said spending cuts need to exceed a $2 trillion target approved as part of the agenda by the House of Representatives. He called on Republican leaders to create a review process to find additional cuts in the federal budget.
“Without a commitment to returning to some reasonable pre-pandemic spending level, and a process to actually achieve it, I don’t think that’s going anywhere,” the Wisconsin Republican told the Fox News’ “Sunday Morning Futures” program.
“That’s going to be the discussion,” said Johnson, who wants to scale back total federal outlays from an estimated $7 trillion this year to a $4.4 trillion level seen in 2019.
“We have a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to address this. This is our moment,” he said.
Johnson’s comments could spell trouble for Senate majority leader John Thune, who hopes to pass a revised version of the House plan this week.
Republicans have a 53-47 majority in the Senate and need at least 50 votes to pass the agenda plan with Vice President JD Vance wielding a tie-breaking vote.
But congressional Republicans are widely split over spending cuts. Like Johnson, several Senate Republicans want far larger reductions than the House target to pay for the Trump agenda and address the $36.6 trillion US debt. Others are urging modest cuts to protect social safety-net programs including Medicaid health coverage for low-income Americans.
The House and Senate need to pass the same blueprint to unlock a parliamentary tool known as budget reconciliation, which would enable them to enact Trump’s agenda later this year by circumventing Democratic opposition in the Senate.
Last week, Trump pulled his nomination of Republican Representative Elize Stefanik as US ambassador to the United Nations, saying the move would help ensure his agenda’s success in the House, where Republicans hold a razor-thin 218-213 majority.
