Why the Oslo Accords failed to put Palestinians on the path to statehood

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US President Bill Clinton stood between Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat, right, and Israeli PM Yitzak Rabin Rabin, left, on Sept.13, 1993, at the White House in Washington DC, after signing the Oslo accords. (AFP/File)
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Updated 05 May 2024
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Why the Oslo Accords failed to put Palestinians on the path to statehood

  • A memento being offered for sale was apparently torn from White House program for the Sept. 13, 1993, signing ceremony
  • Timing of sale amid Gaza war ironic in that the document is reminder of a conflict that has raged unresolved since 1948

LONDON: Monday, Sept. 13, 1993, was a sunny day in Washington and, for those gathered on the lawn of the White House, it seemed that a bright new era had dawned in the fraught relationship between Israel and the Palestinians.

The occasion was the formal signing of the Oslo Accords, a declaration of principles on interim Palestinian self-government that had been agreed in the Norwegian capital the previous month by Israeli and Palestinian negotiators.

It was a historic moment, and it produced a remarkable photograph that claimed its rightful place on the front pages of newspapers around the world: Israeli Prime Minister Yitzak Rabin and PLO Chairman Yasser Arafat smiling and shaking hands in front of a beaming US President Bill Clinton.




In this photo taken on Sept. 13, 1993, world leaders, dignitaries and peace advocates attend the historic signing of the Oslo Accords between Israel and Palestine at the White House lawn in Washington. (AFP/File)

With ironic timing, given the current tragedy unfolding in Gaza 30 years later, a unique memento of that day is being offered for sale by the Raab Collection, a US company that specializes in the buying and selling of important historical documents and autographs.

The single piece of paper, embossed with the golden seal of the President of the United States, and apparently torn from the White House program for the signing ceremony, is signed by all the key players on that hopeful day.




A unique memento of Monday, Sept. 13, 1993, is being offered for sale by the Raab Collection. The single piece of paper, embossed with the golden seal of the US president, and apparently torn from the White House program for the Oslo Accords signing ceremony, is signed by all the key players on that hopeful day. The document is offered for sale at $35,000. (Supplied)

According to Raab, which declines to reveal who put the document up for sale, it was “acquired from the archives of one of the important participants at the event.”

Each of the seven signatures has great value for any student of politics and history — here are the hands of Arafat, Rabin, Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas, Israeli President Shimon Peres, US Secretary of State Warren Christopher, and Russian Foreign Minister Andrei Kozyrev, whose country had co-sponsored the 1991 Madrid Conference that set the stage for the Oslo Accords.

Taken together, they offer a bittersweet reminder of a moment when, in the words that day of an ebullient Clinton, “we dare to pledge what for so long seemed difficult even to imagine: That the security of the Israeli people will be reconciled with the hopes of the Palestinian people and there will be more security and more hope for all.”




PLO Chairman Yasser Arafat (2nd-R) and Israeli PM Yitzhak Rabin (2nd-L) sign a Palestinian autonomy accord in the West Bank during ceremonies at the white House in Washington, DC, on September 1995. (AFP/File)

Rather like a rare stamp, the value of which is increased by a printing anomaly, the document includes a curious discrepancy. It was signed on Sept. 13, the day of the White House ceremony, but only two of the signatories added the date to their signature. While Abbas wrote the correct date, the 13th, Arafat dated his signature the 14th.

The document is offered for sale at $35,000, but in political terms, with the hope expressed that day by Clinton that it was the gateway to “a continuing process in which the parties transform the very way they see and understand each other,” it is worthless.

INNUMBERS

• 10 Israeli prime ministers since the signing of the Oslo Accords in 1993.

• 4 Palestinian prime ministers since creation of the post in 2013.

As a reminder of the seemingly intractable nature of a conflict that has raged unresolved since 1948, the 30-year-old document is priceless.

One of the witnesses on the White House lawn that September day in 1993 was philosopher Jerome M. Segal, a peace activist who in the spring of 1987 had been part of the first American-Jewish delegation to meet with the PLO leadership.




Jerome M. Segal, a philosopher and founder of the Jewish Peace Lobby, was part of the first American-Jewish delegation to meet with the PLO leadership in 1987. (Supplied)

The following year Segal played a key role in negotiations that led to the opening of a dialogue between the US and the PLO, and a series of essays he published is credited with having informed the PLO’s decision to issue a Declaration of Independence and launch a unilateral peace initiative in 1988.

In 1993, as he watched Arafat and Rabin shaking hands, Segal, the founder of the Jewish Peace Lobby, had good reason to think that the elusive prize of peace might actually be within grasp.

Four days before the signing, Arafat and Rabin had exchanged letters, the former renouncing violence and acknowledging Israel’s right to exist in peace and security, and the latter recognizing the PLO as the representative of the Palestinian people and committing to peace negotiations.




Israeli President Shimon Peres at the Sept. 13, 1993, White House South Lawn ceremony. Each of the seven signatures on the document has great value for any student of politics and history. (AFP file photo)

It was agreed that a new Palestinian National Authority would be formed, and would assume governing responsibilities in the West Bank and Gaza Strip. 

After five years, “permanent status” talks would be held to forge agreement on key issues to pave the way for the creation of a future Palestinian state, including borders, the right of return of Palestinian refugees, and the status of Jerusalem.

But Segal, and everyone else imbued with optimism on that bright September day, was to be disappointed. 




PLO political director Mahmoud Abbas (2nd R) signs the historic Israel-PLO Oslo Accords on Palestinian autonomy in the occupied territories on September 13, 1993 in a ceremony at the White House in Washington, D.C. as (from L to R) Israeli Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin, unidentified aide, US President Bill Clinton and PLO Chairman Yasser Arafat look on. (AFP/File)

Many reasons have been proposed for the withering of the olive branch of Oslo, but according to Israeli-British historian Avi Shlaim, writing in 2005, “the fundamental cause behind the loss of trust and the loss of momentum was the Israeli policy of expanding settlements on the West Bank, which carried on under Labour as well as Likud.”

This policy — which continues to blight relations between Israel and the Palestinians to this day — “precluded the emergence of a viable Palestinian state, without which there can be no end to the conflict.”

In a terrible pre-echo of the provocative visits to the Al-Aqsa mosque compound carried out recently by some of the right-wing members of Benjamin Netanyahu’s cabinet, Ariel Sharon, while campaigning to become Israel’s prime minister in September 2000, made a similarly controversial visit to the site.




Israeli security officers escort right-wing opposition leader Ariel Sharon (C) out of the Al-Aqsa mosque compound in Jerusalem's Old City on September 28, 2000, as his intrusion into Islam's third holiest shrine provoked a riot, leaving 29 people hurt and leaving peace efforts in tatters. (AFP)

The result was an outbreak of violent protests by outraged Palestinians. The Second Intifada would last almost five years and claim thousands of lives.

For Segal, director of the International Peace Consultancy, the failure of Oslo owes less to the supposed intransigence of the PLO over the years than to the internal dynamics of Israeli politics.

“The thing to realize about Oslo is that since 1993, the Palestinians have had only two leaders, Arafat and Abu Mazen (Mahmoud Abbas, the second and current president of Palestine),” he told Arab News.

“Their positions on final status were almost identical, so there has been a consistency on the Palestinian side of a willingness to end the conflict and recognize the State of Israel — even through the Second Intifada, that never changed, and it’s still there today.

“But on the Israeli side, we’ve had enormous flip-flops, from Rabin, to Peres, to Netanyahu, to Ehud Barak, to Ariel Sharon, to Ehud Olmert, and back again to Netanyahu.”

The precarious nature of peace talks for Israeli politicians was underlined in November 1995 when, just two years after shaking Arafat’s hand, Rabin was assassinated by a right-wing Israeli extremist opposed to the Oslo Accords. 




World leaders stand behind the late Israeli Premier Yitzhak Rabin's coffin during his funeral at the Jerusalem Mount Herzl military cemetery on November 6, 1995. (ZOOM 77 photo via AFP)

“After Rabin’s death we have only had two Israeli prime ministers, Barak and Olmert, who have gone into serious final-status negotiations with the Palestinians,” said Segal.

Barak, who beat Netanyahu in the polls by a wide margin to become prime minister in 1999, “did it in a terrible context — the Second Intifada had already started.”

In 2000, Barak took part with Arafat in the Camp David Summit, which ended without agreement. As the violence continued in 2001, Barak stood for reelection as prime minister, losing to Ariel Sharon, one of the founders of Israel’s right-wing Likud party.




US President Bill Clinton (L) watches as Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat (C) confers with Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Barak (R) on July 11, 2000 at the Camp David presidential retreat in Thumont, Maryland. (AFP/File)

In 2006, Sharon was succeeded by Ehud Olmert, leader of the more liberal Kadima party. By 2009 he too would be gone, enmeshed in a series of corruption allegations and succeeded by Netanyahu.

“So, in the entire period since 1993, we’ve actually had only two Israeli prime ministers, and for a combined total of not more than three years, under whom there was a serious effort to pursue the final negotiations envisioned by Oslo,” Segal said.

That, he added, “leads to a very interesting question: Why, with the promise of ending the conflict, does the Israeli public regularly elect prime ministers who aren’t interested, like Netanyahu — why, as I heard Avi Gill (a former director-general of Israel’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs) put it, do Israelis poll left, but vote right?”




Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's (L) appointment of far-right politician Bezalel Smotrich, a leader of landgrabbers, has only helped scupper any chance for peaceful co-existence between Palestinians and Israelis. (AFP photo/File)

The answer, Segal believes, “is because they don’t believe they are losing anything by doing so.”

Ironically, given the unwillingness of every Israeli leader since Olmert to compromise in the interest of peace, “even though they would support the two-state solution, they don’t believe there’s a Palestinian partner who will. In their mind they’re not losing a conflict-ending agreement they might get if they had a left-wing leader, so they end up going for Mr. Security.”

This, believes Segal, is a crucial factor in the ongoing failure to find the peace that seemed so close in 1993.

“You have to deal with this, what I call ‘no-partnerism,’ the dogma that there is not, and has never been, a Palestinian partner for peace, because this is not just a Netanyahu thesis. It’s one that’s deep in the belief structure of the majority of Israelis.

On Oct. 6, the eve of the Hamas-led attack on Israel, Segal was optimistic that a breakthrough was close.

In his book “The Olive Branch from Palestine,” published in 2022, he had urged “a Palestinian return to unilateral peacemaking, with the Palestinians taking the lead in establishing ... a UN commission through which the Palestinians would advance, in full detail, without any ambiguity, the end-of-conflict, end-of-claims agreement that they are prepared to sign.”

This he dubbed UNSCOP-2, an allusion to the UN committee formed in 1947, which proposed the original partition plan for Palestine.

“On Oct. 6, I believed that we could get major changes through the UNSCOP-2 process. I believed that a committee could be created in a matter of months, that all I had to do was to get Abu Mazen across the line, to get him to go from calling on the secretary general of the UN to do something to doing something himself in the General Assembly, and we could move very rapidly.

“We talked to many countries at the UN. We even talked to Iran, and nobody was opposed. I believed that we could then put in front of the Israeli public something that in decades of conflict they have never had, which is a Palestinian ‘Yes’.”

By training a philosopher, Segal remains philosophical, despite the disastrous events of the past seven months.

“On Oct. 6, I was optimistic for the short term. Now I see the timeframe is very different, but I do have proposals. Our approach after Oct. 7 is what you could call ‘Gaza-first’.”




Israelis light 25,000 candles at Rabin Square in the Israeli coastal city Tel Aviv, on October 29, 2020, ahead of the 25th anniversary of the assassination of former Israeli Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin, Rabin was gunned down in Tel Aviv after a peace rally on November 4, 1995 by a right-wing Jewish extremist Yigal Amir. (AFP)

This is the reawakening of a plan first proposed by Segal in 1995 at the request of Israeli Prime Minister Peres — the idea that while granting Palestinians sovereignty over the West Bank might be an initial step too far for most Israelis, an experiment in Palestinian statehood limited at first to Gaza might win their confidence and, ultimately, lead to an Arab state that includes the West Bank.

In 1995, it was Arafat who rejected the plan, fearing not unreasonably that “Gaza first” would come to be “Gaza last,” with the PLO confined to the coastal strip in perpetuity, even though “I presented a 20-point proposal designed to give the PLO confidence that they wouldn’t get stuck in Gaza.”

The reason, Segal believes, is because Oslo was still alive, and it made sense for the PLO to hold out for what would prove to be the illusory promise of final-status talks.

Now his view is that “Gaza first” offers the only realistic hope of progress.

As he wrote in a column for Foreign Policy on Feb. 6, in the wake of Oct. 7 “no Israeli government will ever agree to a Palestinian state in the West Bank unless ­there is substantial confidence that it will not be a threat to Israel.”




Nearly 30 years on since Israeli assassins killed the Oslo Accords, shockwaves of the conflict are being felt even in college campuses around the world. (AFP)

If there is an answer, Segal concluded, “it will require abandoning the defunct Oslo paradigm, which sees Palestinian statehood emerging as a result of successful end-of-conflict negotiations. 

“The alternative is a sovereignty-in-Gaza-first approach, to test Palestinian statehood in Gaza first and, only if it is successful over an agreed period, to then move to negotiations on extending Palestinian sovereignty to the West Bank.”

Right now, Segal’s dogged commitment to the peace process is as admirable as it is remarkable.

But, in the face of a general lack of alternative proposals, it perhaps also offers the best hope of achieving Clinton’s wish, expressed on the White House lawn over 30 years ago, that “two peoples who have both known the bitterness of exile” might “put old sorrows and antagonisms behind them ... to work for a shared future shaped by the values of the Torah, the Qur’an, and the Bible.”
 

 


Netanyahu vows to uproot Hamas as ceasefire proposals are discussed

Updated 5 sec ago
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Netanyahu vows to uproot Hamas as ceasefire proposals are discussed

  • Nearly 21 months of war have created dire humanitarian conditions for the more than two million people in the Gaza Strip, where Israel has recently expanded its military operations

Gaza City, Palestinian Territories: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Wednesday vowed to eradicate Hamas, even as the Palestinian militant group said it was discussing new proposals from mediators for a ceasefire in Gaza.
The Israeli leader had yet to comment on US President Donald Trump’s claim that Israel had backed a plan for a 60-day truce in its offensive against Hamas in the war-ravaged territory.
But a week ahead of talks scheduled with Trump in Washington, he vowed to “destroy” Hamas “down to their very foundation.”
Hamas said it was “conducting national consultations to discuss” the proposals submitted in negotiations mediated by Qatar and Egypt.
Nearly 21 months of war have created dire humanitarian conditions for the more than two million people in the Gaza Strip, where Israel has recently expanded its military operations.
The civil defense agency said that Israeli forces had killed at least 47 people on Wednesday.
Among the dead was Marwan Al-Sultan, director of the Indonesian Hospital, a key clinic in the north of Gaza, Palestinian officials said.
Trump on Tuesday urged Hamas to accept a 60-day ceasefire, saying that Israel had agreed to finalize such a deal.
Hamas said in a statement that it was studying the latest proposals and aiming “to reach an agreement that guarantees ending the aggression, achieving the withdrawal (of Israeli forces from Gaza) and urgently aiding our people in the Gaza Strip.”
Netanyahu vowed however: “We will free all our hostages, and we will eliminate Hamas. It will be no more,” in filmed comments in the city of Ashkelon near Gaza’s northern border.
Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Saar earlier said that he saw “some positive signs,” amid high pressure to bring home the hostages.
“We are serious in our will to reach a hostage deal and a ceasefire,” he said. “Our goal is to begin proximity talks as soon as possible.”
Out of 251 hostages seized by Palestinian militants in October 2023, 49 are still held in Gaza, including 27 the Israeli military says are dead.
A Palestinian source familiar with the mediated negotiations told AFP that “there are no fundamental changes in the new proposal” under discussion compared to previous terms presented by the United States.
The source said that the new proposal “includes a 60-day truce, during which Hamas would release half of the living Israeli captives in the Gaza Strip, in exchange for Israel releasing a number of Palestinian prisoners and detainees.”
In southern Gaza, civil defense spokesman Mahmud Bassal told AFP that five members of the same family were killed in an Israeli air strike on Wednesday that hit a tent housing displaced people in the Al-Mawasi area.
Despite being declared a safe zone by Israel in December 2023, Al-Mawasi has been hit by repeated Israeli strikes.
AFP footage from the area showed makeshift tents blown apart as Palestinians picked through the wreckage trying to salvage what was left of their belongings.
“They came here thinking it was a safe area and they were killed. What did they do?” said one resident, Maha Abu Rizq, against a backdrop of destruction.
AFP footage from nearby Khan Yunis city showed infants covered in blood being rushed into Nasser Hospital. One man carrying a child whose face was smeared with blood screamed: “Children, children!“
Among other fatalities, Bassal later reported five people killed by Israeli army fire near an aid distribution site close to the southern city of Rafah and a further death following Israeli fire near an aid site in the center of the territory.
They were the latest in a string of deadly incidents that have hit people trying to receive food.
Media restrictions in Gaza and difficulties in accessing many areas mean AFP is unable to independently verify the tolls and details provided by rescuers.
Contacted by AFP, the Israeli military said it “is operating to dismantle Hamas military capabilities” in line with “international law, and takes feasible precautions to mitigate civilian harm.”
It said in a statement that a 19-year-old sergeant in its forces “fell during combat in the northern Gaza Strip.”
The military late on Wednesday issued a fresh evacuation warning to residents for three neighborhoods of Gaza City, urging them to flee south to the Mawasi area.
Israeli forces are “operating with extreme intensity in the area and will attack any location being used to launch missiles toward the State of Israel,” Arabic-language spokesman Avichay Adraee said in a message on Telegram.
“The destruction of terrorist organizations will continue and expand into the city center, encompassing all neighborhoods of the city,” Avichay wrote.
The military earlier said that its air force had intercepted two “projectiles” that crossed from northern Gaza into Israeli territory.
Israel launched its offensive in response to Hamas’s October 7, 2023 attack which resulted in the deaths of 1,219 people, mostly civilians, according to an AFP tally based on Israeli official figures.
Israel’s retaliatory military campaign has killed at least 57,012 people in Gaza, also mostly civilians, according to the Hamas-run territory’s health ministry. The United Nations considers its figures reliable.


Israeli Likud party ministers urge Netanyahu to annex West Bank

Updated 03 July 2025
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Israeli Likud party ministers urge Netanyahu to annex West Bank

  • The petition was signed by 15 cabinet ministers and Amir Ohana, speaker of the Knesset, Israel’s parliament

Cabinet ministers in Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud party called on Wednesday for Israel to annex the Israeli-occupied West Bank before the Knesset recesses at the end of the month.
They issued a petition ahead of Netanyahu’s meeting next week with US President Donald Trump, where discussions are expected to center on a potential 60-day Gaza ceasefire and hostage release deal with Hamas.
The petition was signed by 15 cabinet ministers and Amir Ohana, speaker of the Knesset, Israel’s parliament.
There was no immediate response from the prime minister’s office. Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer, long a confidant of Netanyahu, did not sign the petition. He has been in Washington since Monday for talks on Iran and Gaza.
“We ministers and members of Knesset call for applying Israeli sovereignty and law immediately on Judea and Samaria,” they wrote, using the biblical names for the West Bank captured by Israel in the 1967 Middle East war.
Their petition cited Israel’s recent achievements against both Iran and Iran’s allies and the opportunity afforded by the strategic partnership with the US and support of Trump.
It said the October 7, 2023, Hamas-led attack on Israel demonstrated that the concept of Jewish settlement blocs alongside the establishment of a Palestinian state poses an existential threat to Israel.
“The task must be completed, the existential threat removed from within, and another massacre in the heart of the country must be prevented,” the petition stated.
Most countries regard Jewish settlements in the West Bank, many of which cut off Palestinian communities from one another, as a violation of international law.
With each advance of Israeli settlements and roads, the West Bank becomes more fractured, further undermining prospects for a contiguous land on which Palestinians could build a sovereign state long envisaged in Middle East peacemaking.
Israel’s pro-settler politicians have been emboldened by the return to the White House of Trump, who has proposed Palestinians leave Gaza, a suggestion widely condemned across the Middle East and beyond.


Syria state media says talk of peace deal with Israel ‘premature’

Updated 02 July 2025
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Syria state media says talk of peace deal with Israel ‘premature’

  • “Statements concerning signing a peace agreement with the Israeli occupation at this time are considered premature,” state TV reported
  • “It is not possible to talk of the possibility of negotiations over a new agreement”

DAMASCUS: Syrian state media reported Wednesday that statements on signing a peace deal with Israel were “premature,” days after Israel said it was interested in striking a normalization agreement with Damascus.

“Statements concerning signing a peace agreement with the Israeli occupation at this time are considered premature,” state TV reported an unidentified official source as saying.

“It is not possible to talk of the possibility of negotiations over a new agreement unless the occupation fully adheres the 1974 disengagement agreement and withdraws from the areas it has penetrated,” it added.

On Monday, Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Saar said his country had an “interest in adding countries, Syria and Lebanon, our neighbors, to the circle of peace and normalization while safeguarding Israel’s essential and security interests.”

The statement came amid major shifts in the region’s power dynamics, including the fall of longtime Syrian ruler Bashar Assad in December and the weakening of his ally Lebanese armed group Hezbollah after its latest war with Israel.

Syria’s new Islamist authorities have confirmed they held indirect talks with Israel to reduce tensions.

Since Assad’s ouster, Israel has repeatedly bombed targets inside Syria while Israeli troops have entered the UN-patrolled buffer zone along the 1974 armistice line on the Golan Heights and carried out incursions deeper into southern Syria.

Interim President Ahmed Al-Sharaa has repeatedly said Damascus does not seek conflict with its neighbors, asking the international community to pressure Israel into stopping its attacks.

Syria has said that the goal of ongoing negotiations is the reimplementation of the 1974 armistice between the two countries.

Saar insisted that the Golan Heights, much of which Israel seized in 1967 and later annexed in a move not recognized by the United Nations, “will remain part of the State of Israel” under any future peace agreement.

Control of the strategic plateau has long been a source of tension between Israel and Syria, which are technically still at war.


Gulf diplomacy with Iran helped limit conflict with Israel, Middle East experts say

Updated 02 July 2025
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Gulf diplomacy with Iran helped limit conflict with Israel, Middle East experts say

  • Pursuit of pragmatic relations between GCC nations and Tehran prevented fighting from escalating ‘out of hand’
  • Trump-brokered peace agreement offers ‘opportunities’ for further steps toward regional security, according to academics specializing on the region

LONDON: Improved relations between Arab Gulf countries and Iran helped contain the recent conflict with Israel, Middle East experts said on Wednesday during a discussion about regional developments.

Israel attacked Iran on June 13 with airstrikes targeting its nuclear program and military sites. Iran retaliated during the 12-day conflict by launching salvos of missiles toward Israeli cities.

Many feared the war might escalate, dragging in other countries in the region, especially after the US joined the airstrikes on June 22 by dropping bombs on key Iranian nuclear sites.

While Iran did retaliate against the US by attacking Al-Udeid airbase in Qatar on June 23, President Donald Trump announced a ceasefire two days later, and Iran has refrained from attacking other US targets in the region.

When the war started, Gulf countries condemned Israel’s attacks on Iran and called for deescalation. There has been a shift in the region in recent years away from an adversarial relationship with Iran to one of more pragmatic relations, cemented by a Chinese-brokered agreement between Riyadh and Tehran in March 2023.

“That reintegration of Iran into the Gulf security complex has played a really prominent role in preventing this from getting out of hand,” Simon Mabon, a professor of international politics and director of the SEPAD peace and conflict research center at Lancaster University, said during a discussion about developments in the Middle East this year.

This approach showed Gulf states building a regional security architecture from the inside that is “inclusive,” he added. It is viewed as a more “pragmatic and more sustainable way of building a longer-term form of prosperity,” and the approach speaks to Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 reforms program and the economic pragmatism of Gulf states, he added during the online event organized by SEPAD and the Foreign Policy Centre in London.

Eyad Alrefai, a lecturer in political science at King Abdulaziz University in Jeddah and a SEPAD fellow, said the efforts to forge new relationships between Gulf countries and Iran meant that the nations had been able to “manage their differences diplomatically,” and this included economic issues.

There had been less Iranian interference in the domestic affairs of GCC countries, and also in the wider Arab region, he added. This included Iran’s decision not to get involved in Syria when President Bashar Assad, an Iranian ally, was removed from power by opposition fighters in December last year.

The West’s position on the Iran-Israel conflict, largely seen to be one of support of Israel, was symptomatic of the fact that those countries continue to adopt a “tactical” outlook toward the region rather than a strategic one, Alrefai said. He urged those countries to engage with the Middle East as a socioeconomic, sustainable project moving forward.

If the truce between Iran and Israel continues to hold, many see the end of the brief war as a potential opportunity for more stability in the region.

Lina Khatib, an associate fellow at Chatham House’s Middle East and North Africa Program, said there was “a real possibility for an integrated economic and security and political partnership” to emerge. She said a weakened Iran also opens up the chance to restart the Israeli-Palestinian peace process.

Trump said on Tuesday that Israel had agreed to the terms of a 60-day ceasefire in Gaza, where more than 57,000 Palestinians have been killed during a devastating military campaign launched by Israeli authorities in response to the Hamas-led attacks against Israel on Oct. 7, 2023, during which 1,200 people were killed and dozens taken hostage.

Khatib said a shift in domestic Israeli politics, with pressure from Trump, could reopen a pathway toward a long-term agreement between Israel and Palestine. This would also lead to further normalization of relations between Israel and Arab countries, she added.

“This will in turn encourage the flow of funding to places like Lebanon and Syria for reconstruction, which could only be good news for these countries economically, but also will help with stability,” Khatib said.

“Having a stable region is very much in the interest of countries in the Gulf as well.”

Clive Jones, a professor of regional security and director of the Institute for Middle Eastern and Islamic Studies at Durham University, said Israel had scored a huge win against Iran but ran the risk of failing to convert it into a diplomatic opportunity.

“The challenge for Israel now is how you actually cash in those military gains for diplomatic advantage,” he said.

“I think Israel is actually missing a huge opportunity, for example by not engaging more proactively with the new regime in Syria.”

He said Israel’s reliance on its military superiority would not be enough to secure long-term security.


Why latest Gaza ceasefire proposal may offer a pause — but not a path to peace

Updated 02 July 2025
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Why latest Gaza ceasefire proposal may offer a pause — but not a path to peace

  • As aid remains blocked and famine looms, a fragile US-backed truce faces skepticism from Hamas, Israel, and rights groups
  • With starvation deepening and no sign of peace, experts warn Israel’s aim is to force Palestinians out of Gaza — by design

LONDON: When global attention shifted to the conflict between Israel and Iran, the urgency around ending the war in Gaza appeared to dissipate. But for Palestinian civilians living under fire and the families of hostages still awaiting news, the nightmare remained very much alive.

On Wednesday, US President Donald Trump announced on Truth Social that Israel had accepted the key conditions required for a 60-day ceasefire, although he did not detail the specific terms of the agreement.

He said Qatar and Egypt, which have played significant roles in the negotiations, would present the final proposal to Hamas. Trump urged Hamas to accept the deal, warning that if they reject it, the situation “will not get better — IT WILL ONLY GET WORSE.”

Trump’s announcement came ahead of a scheduled meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at the White House next week, where Trump indicated he would take a “very firm” stance.

He expressed optimism that a ceasefire agreement could be finalized as soon as next week.

Aid agencies say the blockade has caused acute shortages of food. (AFP)

Despite these statements, the fighting has escalated. Israeli military spokesperson Avichay Adraee has announced renewed operations in northern Gaza, the aim being the elimination of “terrorists and terrorist infrastructure.”

On June 29, Israeli forces ordered mass evacuations from northern Gaza and Jabalia to Sheikh Radwan, warning residents to move south ahead of intensified strikes.

The US-backed proposal to end the conflict, originally presented by US envoy Steve Witkoff on May 31, called for a 60-day ceasefire in exchange for the release of 10 living Israeli hostages, while venturing into the thorny issue of Hamas disarmament.

But the plan had drawn criticism, with Hamas rejecting the proposal, saying it was “biased in favor of Israel” and failed to address the Palestinian enclave’s dire humanitarian crisis.

Instead, Hamas called for the full withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza, a permanent ceasefire, and the transfer of authority for the Gaza Strip to a Palestinian-led body.

Israel too had issued several non-negotiable demands, raising doubts about the proposal’s potential to deliver lasting peace — until Trump’s announcement on Wednesday.

Although it has signaled openness to a ceasefire if Hamas releases the remaining hostages, Israel has insisted on the disarmament or exile of the Hamas leadership. Some Israeli ministers have even threatened to resign over any deal that does not secure Hamas’s defeat.

Hamas called for the full withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza, a permanent ceasefire, and the transfer of authority for the Gaza Strip to a Palestinian-led body. (AFP)

“I don’t see any indication that we’re moving toward a ceasefire,” Khaled Elgindy, visiting scholar at Georgetown University’s Center for Contemporary Arab Studies, told Arab News.

“It seems fairly clear that Netanyahu does not want to stop bombing and starving Gaza.

“He and his defense minister, Israel Katz, have said very clearly that they’re not going to allow any humanitarian aid, which is the most urgent priority right now, even more than a ceasefire.”

Since early March 2025, Israel has largely blocked humanitarian aid from entering Gaza. These restrictions have halted the flow of essential supplies — including food, medicine, and fuel — dramatically worsening an already dire situation.

Although Israel resumed limited aid shipments in mid-May, UN agencies and humanitarian groups have widely condemned the effort as inadequate to meet the needs of Gaza’s 2.2 million residents.

International rights groups have denounced the aid restrictions as violations of international law, accusing Israel of using starvation as a weapon of war and pushing Gaza toward a man-made catastrophe — claims the Israeli government denies.

Aid agencies say the blockade has caused acute shortages of food, clean water, fuel, and medical supplies, driving the population to the brink of famine.

Despite growing international pressure, Israeli officials insist on retaining control over aid distribution, arguing that the measures are necessary to prevent supplies from falling into the hands of Hamas.

Since October 2023, the Israeli offensive has killed at least 55,700 Palestinians in Gaza, according to local health authorities. (AP)

In May, this stance led to the launch of a controversial new mechanism: the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation, or GHF. Backed by the US and Israel but rejected by the UN, the GHF has come under fire for failing to meet humanitarian standards and for relying on Israeli military oversight.

The GHF replaces the longstanding UN-led aid system, which Israel claims allowed Hamas to divert supplies — an allegation firmly denied by the UN and most humanitarian organizations.

Operating through four military-controlled distribution hubs in southern Gaza, the GHF forces civilians to travel long distances to collect prepackaged food, water, and hygiene kits — often under the watch of Israeli troops.

Critics, including the UN and major aid groups, say the GHF politicizes aid and enables Israel to weaponize relief by tightly regulating access.

Deadly incidents have occurred near distribution sites, with video footage showing scenes that observers have compared to concentration camps.

One such incident took place on June 15, when Israeli forces opened fire on a crowd of Palestinians gathered near an aid center in Rafah. At least eight were killed and dozens wounded, according to witnesses and Gaza health officials.

A tractor protest organised by the Kibbutz Movement and the Hostages Families (AFP)

Survivors described the scene as a trap, with no safe way to evacuate the wounded amid the chaos.

The UN and international rights groups condemned the violence. The Council on American-Islamic Relations labeled the aid centers “human slaughterhouses” due to repeated fatal shootings of civilians seeking food and water.

The international community has repeatedly called for a ceasefire in Gaza since the Israeli military operation began on Oct. 7, 2023, in retaliation for the deadly Hamas-led attack on southern Israel. Those appeals, however, have largely fallen on deaf ears.

In early June, the US vetoed yet another UN Security Council resolution calling for an unconditional and permanent ceasefire in Gaza.

Dorothy Shea, US ambassador to the UN, defended the veto, saying the resolution would “undermine diplomatic efforts” to reach a ceasefire. She also criticized the UN for not having designated Hamas a terrorist organization.

The international community has repeatedly called for a ceasefire in Gaza since the Israeli military operation began on Oct. 7, 2023. (AFP)

Hamas is described as such by the US, UK, and EU.

“We would not support any measure that fails to condemn Hamas and does not call for Hamas to disarm and leave Gaza,” she said.

Still, pressure continues to mount. On June 18, the World Food Programme emphasized the urgent need for another ceasefire to allow safe and consistent delivery of critical food supplies to families in Gaza.

On June 12, the UN General Assembly overwhelmingly passed a resolution demanding an immediate ceasefire, the release of all hostages, and unrestricted humanitarian access. The resolution, introduced by Spain, Slovenia, and others, was backed by 149 countries and condemned Israel’s use of starvation as a weapon of war.

A day later, the 10 elected members of the UN Security Council (E10) urged compliance with international law and emphasized the urgent need for humanitarian relief.

“A ceasefire will take a lot of diplomatic effort,” Elgindy said. “But at a minimum, there should be international pressure to force Israel to stop preventing food and medicine from entering Gaza. Even that is not really happening.”

The ceasefire proposal under discussion — supported by the US, Egypt, and Qatar — calls for a phased release of 10 living Israeli hostages and 18 bodies, in exchange for more than 1,200 Palestinian prisoners.

INNUMBER

• 5,833+ Killed in Gaza since hostilities resumed in March.

• 9 Israeli evacuation orders issued May 22 to June 12 across Gaza.

• 962 Israeli ceasefire violations in six weeks after Jan. 2025 agreement.

(Sources: WHO & Palestine’s representative to the UN)

Hostages would be freed over the first week of the truce, while Hamas would halt hostilities and permit aid to resume through the previously suspended UN-led system.

Israel signed off on the plan in May and is awaiting Hamas’s formal response. But Hamas insists on guarantees of a permanent ceasefire, the withdrawal of Israeli forces, and the restoration of full aid access.

Hamas also opposes Israel’s demand for the group’s full disarmament and the immediate release of all hostages before any ceasefire takes effect.

Witkoff has condemned Hamas’s conditions as “unacceptable,” urging the group to accept the deal as a basis for proximity talks.

Israel, meanwhile, maintains that any ceasefire must include the dismantling of Hamas as a military and governing entity and the return of all hostages.

It was triggered by the unprecedented Oct. 7, 2023, Hamas-led attack on southern Israel, which saw some 1,200 people killed, the majority of them civilians, and around 250 taken hostage, many of them non-Israeli nationals.

Israel’s retaliatory assault has displaced 90 percent of Gaza’s population, decimated infrastructure, and brought the health system to the brink of collapse.

Israeli officials, including Netanyahu and members of his far-right coalition, have openly discussed annexing parts of Gaza. (AFP)

Elgindy described the situation as “the worst humanitarian crisis since this horror began in October 2023.”

“It’s never been worse,” he said. “So, my sense, based on everything that we’re seeing and what the Israelis are saying, is they are moving ahead with their plan to forcibly displace the population through starvation and bombing and destruction.

“They’ve told us that this is their endgame, and we should believe them.”

Indeed, Israel’s strategy appears aimed at concentrating Gaza’s population in a small southern zone while seizing control of roughly 75 percent of the territory. The plan, approved by Israel’s security cabinet and supported by the US, has prompted alarm from human rights groups.

Organizations including Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch have condemned the effort as ethnic cleansing and a possible war crime, citing forced displacement and collective punishment.

With supplies blocked and civilians trapped in an ever-shrinking space, Gaza’s 2.2 million residents face escalating desperation and a vanishing hope of survival.

Israeli officials, including Netanyahu and members of his far-right coalition, have openly discussed annexing parts of Gaza and “conquering” the territory. Some have called for its depopulation, drawing global condemnation and renewed calls to end arms sales and military aid to Israel.

According to Elgindy, Israeli leaders claim to have informal agreements with some countries to accept Palestinians from Gaza — although several regional powers have flatly rejected such plans.

“Jordan and Egypt and Saudi Arabia and others have completely rejected the idea,” he said.

“But of course, since the most powerful nation in the world, the US, is endorsing the idea of expelling the population, the Israelis feel that it’s not only likely, but probable. And where they go is not of concern to Israel.

Since early March 2025, Israel has largely blocked humanitarian aid from entering Gaza. (AFP)

“The only thing that this Israeli leadership cares about is that they leave. And that is why they’re continuing to use starvation as a weapon while targeting aid workers, ambulances, and civilian infrastructure.

“So, all we know is that they want them to leave, but they don’t care where they go or how they go. I think they’re calling it voluntary relocation. But of course, when you bomb and starve the population, nothing is voluntary.

“There are even reports that they’re willing to pay $5,000 per family for a job and a house. They’re willing to spend billions on expelling the population rather than on rebuilding what they’ve destroyed.”

That possibility of forced mass displacement raises urgent questions about the future of international law.

“I think this is a test right now for the international community,” Elgindy said.

“Does international law mean anything at all? And if Israel is allowed to carry out its plan of ethnic cleansing of Gaza after it’s destroyed it, after broadcasting its intentions for many months — if this is allowed to go ahead, then we know for certain that international law is a complete farce and means nothing and will never mean anything going forward.

“It will be impossible to try and revive the idea of a rules-based order after Gaza.”