Why Israel’s military operation in Rafah will lead to ‘inevitable catastrophe’ in Gaza

Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant talks with soldiers during a visit to the border with the Gaza Strip near Rafah. (AFP/Israeli Army)
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Updated 08 May 2024
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Why Israel’s military operation in Rafah will lead to ‘inevitable catastrophe’ in Gaza

  • Israel has seized control of the Rafah border crossing and ordered 100,000 Palestinians to “evacuate immediately”
  • Full-scale assault on Rafah would intensify humanitarian emergency throughout Gaza, aid agencies warn

LONDON: Palestinians in Gaza’s southern governorate of Rafah face a desperate situation as the Israeli military proceeds with its long-planned assault on the area, capturing the Gaza side of the border crossing with Egypt and ordering displaced families to move yet again.

The Israeli army announced on Tuesday morning that its 401st Brigade had taken “operational control” of the Rafah border crossing after advancing into the eastern part during the night as part of its mission to dislodge Hamas.

Earlier on Monday, Israel ordered some 100,000 Palestinians in eastern Rafah to “evacuate immediately” to Al-Mawasi, a coastal town near Khan Younis that humanitarian organizations said was “completely uninhabitable.”

Mercy Corps said Palestinians in eastern Rafah were confronted with two impossible choices: Face death under bombardment or attempt a perilous journey to an unlivable area with no access to essential aid.




Smoke billows after Israeli bombardment in Rafah. (AFP)

Bushra Khalidi, advocacy director for Oxfam in the Palestinian territories, says civilians fleeing Rafah have been left with nowhere to go.

She told Arab News that people in Rafah “are worried of even leaving their homes” because they fear they will not find anywhere in the middle area or in Al-Mawasi.

According to the AFP news agency, more than 74 percent of the infrastructure in Gaza has been destroyed since Oct. 7 when Israel launched its bombing campaign in retaliation for the Hamas-led attack on southern Israel.

Al-Mawasi, which Israel had dubbed a “humanitarian zone,” is “already overpopulated and filled with makeshift tents,” said Khalidi. “There is no infrastructure, there (are) no services, and no facilities to host this number of (internally displaced people).”

Moreover, this narrow coastal strip, measuring just 1 km wide and 14 km long, already hosts an estimated 250,000 displaced Gazans, according to the Palestinian Red Crescent.

Ahmed Bayram, media adviser for the Norwegian Refugee Council in the Middle East, stressed that “there is not a corner or a street in Gaza where people can go expecting safety.”




Israeli tanks enter the Gazan side of the Rafah border crossing on Tuesday, May 7, 2024. (AP/Israeli Army)

He told Arab News: “Al-Mawasi, which is one of the areas Israel has asked people to go to, is full to the very brim. There is no free spot left in that narrow stretch of land, which is not equipped for such high demand.”

According to Mercy Corps, Al-Mawasi is already a sea of makeshift tents, with little in the way of humanitarian relief, electricity, or water.

It also remains unclear whether Palestinians can flee to neighboring countries through the Rafah crossing now that it is under Israeli control, said Ruth James, Oxfam’s regional humanitarian coordinator for the Middle East and North Africa.

She told Arab News: “Many Palestinians in Gaza currently do not have the recognized right to return to their original homes. Given this context, Egypt, or any other state, should be cautious of inadvertently abetting any potential efforts by Israel, or any other party, to ethnically cleanse the Palestinian population of Gaza.”

Volker Turk, the UN human rights chief, slammed Israel’s evacuation order as “inhumane,” warning that such an action could amount to a war crime, Reuters reported.

Oxfam’s Khalidi also warned that if a Rafah-wide incursion happens, which is the worst-case scenario, it would “entail mass carnage and a complete bloodbath.”




An injured Palestinian boy awaits treatment at the Kuwaiti hospital following Israeli strikes in Rafah. (AFP)

She explained that this is due to “how small” Rafah is and “because of how congested and overpopulated it is.”

Echoing her colleague’s fears, James said: “It’s hard to imagine the scale of need caused by a Rafah invasion. Simply put, this invasion can’t happen. There must be an immediate and permanent ceasefire.”

She added: “The alternative is an avoidable, massive loss of civilian life.”

Despite repeated public objections, even US President Joe Biden’s appeals against the Rafah offensive have gone unheeded.

According to the Associated Press, Biden urgently warned Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in a phone call on Monday against invading Rafah, stressing it would only lead to more deaths and exacerbate the despair in the embattled enclave.

The Israeli military said its operation in Rafah is designed to eliminate fighters and dismantle infrastructure used by Hamas, according to Reuters.




An aerial view of cargo trucks relocated away from the Rafah border crossing with Egypt. (Maxar Technologies)

Israel’s overnight strikes across Rafah killed at least 23 people, including five children, according to local health officials.

Prior to that, Israeli warplanes pounded homes in Rafah, killing at least 27 Palestinians, including two babies, according to Gaza’s health authority.

This is despite Hamas accepting the terms of a Qatari-Egyptian ceasefire proposal on Monday.

Humanitarian organizations concur that the impact of Israel’s operation in Rafah will extend beyond the eastern area, affecting more than 1.4 million people who have been sheltering in the southern governorate — and the entirety of Gaza’s remaining population.

“While the initial ‘evacuation orders’ and operations announced in the east of Rafah are directly impacting 100,000 people, over 1.4 million are sheltering in Rafah, half of which are children, and are at direct risk of any escalated military operations across the area,” Salim Oweis, a spokesperson for UNICEF in Gaza, told Arab News.




Displaced Palestinians flee Rafah for safer areas in southern Gaza. (AFP)

“The extended impact will be far-reaching to include all the 2.2 million residents of Gaza.”

Elaborating, Oweis added: “Rafah is the main hub of all humanitarian response, and any impact on the already struggling aid delivery and humanitarian response will hamper the efforts across Gaza.”

Rafah is the last population center in the Gaza Strip after the seven-month Israeli assault obliterated three-quarters of the besieged enclave, killing at least 34,700 Palestinians according to Gaza’s health ministry, and displacing 90 percent of the population of 2.3 million people.  

Israel’s evacuation orders in eastern Rafah, coupled with unceasing airstrikes across Gaza’s south, have instilled panic among the war-weary residents, triggering an exodus of thousands of Palestinians who have nowhere to seek refuge.

Describing the situation across the Gaza Strip as “a state of despair, chaos and confusion” as Israel carries out its assault on Rafah, NRC’s Bayram said that “by issuing its orders, Israel has again pushed over 1 million people into the unknown.”

FASTFACTS

• Israel ordered Palestinians to evacuate to Al-Mawasi — deemed ‘completely uninhabitable.’

• Closing Rafah crossing would cut Gaza’s only viable humanitarian lifeline, warn aid chiefs.

• Fears that Rafah-wide incursion would ‘entail mass carnage and a complete bloodbath.’

He added: “Let’s not forget, while the orders cover an area with 100,000 people east of Rafah, the rest of the population in central and western areas will think they are next to be forcibly transferred, and so they will try to get out while they can.”

Tahani Mustafa, a senior Palestine analyst at the International Crisis Group, foresees a “horrific” humanitarian situation if the Rafah hostilities do not stop.

“All movement of people and goods has been closed off, at a time where famine is already in the north and was very much on the verge in the south,” she told Arab News.

“There’s been no contingency plan in place, and all foreign aid delegations have been evacuated. If this goes ahead as Israel states, it will be a massacre.”




Gallant promised to “deepen” the Rafah operation if hostage deal talks failed. (AFP)

As Israel has blocked aid through the Rafah border crossing, aid groups are concerned about the impact on much-needed humanitarian assistance across the Gaza Strip. This concern is exacerbated by the suspension of aid deliveries to Gaza through the Kerem Shalom crossing following a nearby Hamas rocket attack.

Oxfam’s James cautioned that “even one day of closure (of crossing points) means that additional lives are likely to be lost to hunger and illness.”

She called on Israel to “adhere to its obligations under international humanitarian law to ensure civilian populations are provided with the most essential aid in sufficient quantities.”

Khalidi pointed out that aid organizations “are already facing huge obstructions” in delivering aid across Gaza.

“Often aid is not making it even past Khan Younis,” she said. “And hence the descent to hell, into starvation, that we have seen over the last course of months in the north, but also across the strip.”

Stressing the need to open “all crossings” to meet the immense and deep humanitarian needs in Gaza, Khalidi said: “We’re hearing that maybe other crossings will open, but the problem is that we already had two crossings open, and that was not enough.”




Displaced Palestinians arrive in Khan Yunis after Israel issued an evacuation order for parts of Rafah. (AFP)

The World Food Programme warned on Saturday that northern Gaza is experiencing a “full-blown famine,” which is “moving its way south.”

Bayram of the NRC also warned that “the entire aid system is at the point of collapse.”

He said: “Closing down the Rafah crossing means cutting off the only viable lifeline currently available for aid workers,” highlighting that the NRC relies on the Rafah crossing to bring in essential aid.

“Fuel is running low already and the existing stocks will not be able to sustain increasing demand,” he added, stressing that “Israel must reverse its plans so we can avoid an inevitable catastrophe.”

UNICEF’s Oweis emphasized that “any interruption to the already limited aid access will have a devastating impact on the humanitarian situation as a whole.”

He added: “With no fuel coming in, all the basic services will be in jeopardy of a total halt, including aid delivery and what’s left of healthcare.

“Not having food entering the strip means that more children will fall into malnutrition and disease, and will be put at heightened risk of death.”




A woman mourns a child killed by Israeli strikes on Rafah. (AFP)

Gaza’s health authority reported on April 25 that since February, at least 28 children, most of them no older than 12 months, had died of malnutrition and dehydration.

Oweis stressed that “the only hope for a way out of a worsening humanitarian catastrophe is simple, and it’s an immediate and long-lasting humanitarian ceasefire.”

He added: “Meanwhile, safe and consistent access for humanitarian organizations and personnel to reach children and their families with lifesaving aid, wherever they are in the Gaza Strip, is crucial.”


Amnesty International calls on Hungary to arrest Netanyahu

Updated 6 sec ago
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Amnesty International calls on Hungary to arrest Netanyahu

  • Israeli PM due to fly to International Criminal Court member state this week
  • Visit ‘must not become a bellwether for the future of human rights in Europe’

LONDON: Amnesty International has called on Hungary to arrest Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, following reports that he will visit the EU member state on Wednesday at the invitation of his Hungarian counterpart Viktor Orban.

Netanyahu is the subject of an arrest warrant issued by the International Criminal Court in November over Israel’s conduct in Gaza.

Orban, a close ally of Netanyahu, has said he would not enforce the warrant. As a member state, Hungary is required to enforce any arrest warrant issued by the ICC.

Erika Guevara-Rosas, head of global research, advocacy and policy at Amnesty International, said Netanyahu “is an alleged war criminal, who is accused of using starvation as a method of warfare, intentionally attacking civilians and the crimes against humanity of murder, persecution, and other inhumane acts.”

As an ICC member, “Hungary must arrest him if he travels to the country and hand him over to the Court. Any trip he takes to an ICC member state that does not end in his arrest would embolden Israel to commit further crimes against Palestinians in the Occupied Palestinian Territory.

“Netanyahu’s reported visit should be seen as a cynical effort to undermine the ICC and its work, and is an insult to the victims of these crimes who are looking to the Court for justice. Hungary’s invitation shows contempt for international law and confirms that alleged war criminals wanted by the ICC are welcome on the streets of an EU member state.”

Guevara-Rosas said: “Netanyahu’s visit to Hungary must not become a bellwether for the future of human rights in Europe.

“European and global leaders must end their shameful silence and inaction, and call on Hungary to arrest Netanyahu during a visit which would make a mockery of the suffering of Palestinian victims of Israel’s genocide in Gaza, its war crimes in other parts of the Occupied Palestinian Territory and its entrenched system of apartheid against all Palestinians whose rights it controls.

“Amnesty International calls on the ICC Prosecutor to investigate and prosecute all Israel’s crimes.”

Guevara-Rosas added: “Hungary should equally do so by applying universal jurisdiction principles. Powerful leaders, like Netanyahu, accused by the ICC of war crimes and crimes against humanity, must no longer enjoy the prospect of perpetual impunity.”


Health ministry in Gaza says 1,042 killed since Israel resumed strikes

Updated 01 April 2025
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Health ministry in Gaza says 1,042 killed since Israel resumed strikes

  • After a ceasefire that lasted roughly two months, Israel relaunched its military campaign in Gaza on March 18

GAZA CITY: The health ministry in Gaza said on Tuesday that 1,042 people have been killed in the Palestinian territory since Israel resumed large-scale strikes on March 18.
According to the ministry’s statement, the figure includes 41 people killed in the past 24 hours. It also reported that the overall death toll had reached 50,399 since the war began on October 7, 2023.
After a ceasefire that lasted roughly two months, Israel relaunched its military campaign in Gaza on March 18. Since then, bombardment and new ground assaults that have killed more than 1,000 Palestinians, according to Gaza’s Health Ministry. The ministry’s count does not distinguish between militants and civilians, but it says over half those killed are women and children.


Israeli defense firm Elbit gets $130 million European rocket supply deal

Updated 01 April 2025
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Israeli defense firm Elbit gets $130 million European rocket supply deal

  • Pro-Palestine activists have repeatedly targeted Israeli arms manufacturer Elbit Systems in the UK
  • They accuse the company of supplying weapons used in Israel’s military actions in Gaza and the West Bank

JERUSALEM: Elbit Systems, Israel’s largest defense firm, said on Tuesday it received a $130 million contract to supply advanced rocket munitions to an unnamed European country.
The contract for the Precize and Universal Launching System (PULS), an advanced and versatile artillery rocket system capable of launching a wide range of ammunition types from a single platform, will be performed over three years.
The system, Elbit said, offers precision strike capabilities with a range of up to 300 kilometers.
“As European nations continue to enhance their defense capabilities, the selection of PULS reaffirms its strategic value in modern battlefield scenarios,” said Yehuda Vered, general manager of Elbit Systems Land.
Under the deal, Elbit will supply a variety of advanced rocket systems that are designed to significantly enhance the operational capabilities of the customer’s defense forces.

Pro-Palestine activists have repeatedly targeted Israeli arms manufacturer Elbit Systems in the UK, accusing it of supplying weapons used in Israel’s military actions in Gaza and the West Bank.

The activist group Palestine Action has led these protests, often involving vandalism and direct action against Elbit’s sites. They argue that Elbit profits from war crimes and demand its closure.


Netanyahu reverses decision on new Israel security chief

Updated 01 April 2025
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Netanyahu reverses decision on new Israel security chief

  • Decision to appoint former navy commander Vice Admiral Eli Sharvit as Shin Bet chief reconsidered following criticism, including from a key US senator

JERUSALEM: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office said Tuesday he had reversed a decision to appoint former navy commander Vice Admiral Eli Sharvit as security agency chief following criticism, including from a key US senator.
“The prime minister thanked Vice Admiral Sharvit for his willingness to be called to duty but informed him that, after further consideration, he intends to examine other candidates,” Netanyahu’s office said in a statement.
Netanyahu had announced Sharvit’s appointment on Monday, pushing back against a supreme court decision to freeze his government’s move to dismiss incumbent director Ronen Bar.
The prime minister had announced Bar’s dismissal on March 21, citing an “ongoing lack of trust.” The supreme court swiftly suspended the decision until April 8.
Bar’s dismissal has sparked daily mass protests in Jerusalem, disrupting the city.
On Monday, hours after Sharvit’s appointment was announced, reports began surfacing that he had been among tens of thousands of Israelis who took to the streets in 2023 to oppose the Netanyahu government’s attempts to reform the judiciary.
Israeli media reports also recalled that Sharvit, who served in the military for 36 years, had supported a 2022 water agreement with Lebanon that Netanyahu had opposed.
It was also revealed that the former naval chief had penned an opinion piece criticizing US President Donald Trump’s policies on climate change, prompting staunch Trump ally, Senator Lindsey Graham, to criticize his appointment in a post on X.
“While it is undeniably true that America has no better friend than Israel, the appointment of Eli Sharvit to be the new leader of the Shin Bet is beyond problematic,” Graham wrote on Monday.
“There has never been a better supporter for the State of Israel than President Trump. The statements made by Eli Sharvit about President Trump and his polices will create unnecessary stress at a critical time. My advice to my Israeli friends is change course and do better vetting.”


Yemen’s Houthis claim they shot down another American drone as US strikes pound country

Updated 01 April 2025
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Yemen’s Houthis claim they shot down another American drone as US strikes pound country

  • The reported shootdown over Yemen’s contested Marib governorate came as airstrikes hit around Sanaa and Saada
  • The US military acknowledged to The Associated Press being aware of reports of the downing of a Reaper

DUBAI: Yemen’s Houthi militia claimed Tuesday that they shot down another American MQ-9 Reaper drone, even as the US kept up its campaign of intense airstrikes targeting the group.
The reported shootdown over Yemen’s contested Marib governorate came as airstrikes hit around Sanaa, the country’s militia-held capital, and Saada, a stronghold for the Houthis.
US President Donald Trump issued a new warning to both the Houthis and their main benefactor, Iran, describing the group as having “been decimated” by the campaign of strikes that began March 15.
“Many of their Fighters and Leaders are no longer with us,” Trump wrote on his social media website Truth Social. “We hit them every day and night — Harder and harder. Their capabilities that threaten Shipping and the Region are rapidly being destroyed. Our attacks will continue until they are no longer a threat to Freedom of Navigation.”
He added: “The choice for the Houthis is clear: Stop shooting at US ships, and we will stop shooting at you. Otherwise, we have only just begun, and the real pain is yet to come, for both the Houthis and their sponsors in Iran.”
Houthis claim they downed another US drone
The militia claimed to have felled a drone in Marib governorate, home to oil and gas fields still under the control of allies to Yemen’s exiled central government. Footage released on social media showed flames in the night, with a Yemeni man claiming a drone had been shot down.
Brig. Gen. Yahya Saree, a Houthi military spokesman, separately claimed downing the MQ-9 drone in a prerecorded video message.
Saree described the militia targeting the drone with “a suitable locally manufactured missile.” The Houthis have surface-to-air missiles — such as the Iranian missile known as the 358 — capable of downing aircraft.
Iran denies arming the militia, though Tehran-manufactured weaponry has been found on the battlefield and in sea shipments heading to Yemen for the Shiite Houthi militia despite a United Nations arms embargo.
The US military acknowledged to The Associated Press being aware of reports of the downing of a Reaper, but declined to comment further.
General Atomics Reapers, which cost around $30 million apiece, can fly at altitudes over 40,000 feet (12,100 meters) and remain in the air for over 30 hours. The aircraft have been flown by both the US military and the CIA for years over Afghanistan, Iraq and now Yemen.
The Houthis claim they’ve shot down 20 MQ-9s over the country over the years, with 16 downed during the militia’ campaign over the Israel-Hamas war. The US military hasn’t acknowledged the total number of the drones it has lost there.
Intense US bombings began March 15
An Associated Press review has found the new American operation against the Houthis under Trump appears more extensive than those under former President Joe Biden, as the US moves from solely targeting launch sites to firing at ranking personnel as well as dropping bombs in cities.
The new campaign of airstrikes, which the Houthis now say have killed at least 61 people, started after the militia threatened to begin targeting “Israeli” ships again over Israel blocking aid entering the Gaza Strip. The militia have loosely defined what constitutes an Israeli ship, meaning many vessels could be targeted.
The Houthis targeted over 100 merchant vessels with missiles and drones, sinking two vessels and killing four sailors from November 2023 until January of this year. They also launched attacks targeting American warships, though none has been hit so far.
The attacks greatly raised the Houthis’ profile as they faced economic problems and launched a crackdown targeting dissent and aid workers at home amid Yemen’s decade-long stalemated war, which has torn apart the Arab world’s poorest nation.