Why Israel’s military operation in Rafah will lead to ‘inevitable catastrophe’ in Gaza

Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant talks with soldiers during a visit to the border with the Gaza Strip near Rafah. (AFP/Israeli Army)
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Updated 08 May 2024
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Why Israel’s military operation in Rafah will lead to ‘inevitable catastrophe’ in Gaza

  • Israel has seized control of the Rafah border crossing and ordered 100,000 Palestinians to “evacuate immediately”
  • Full-scale assault on Rafah would intensify humanitarian emergency throughout Gaza, aid agencies warn

LONDON: Palestinians in Gaza’s southern governorate of Rafah face a desperate situation as the Israeli military proceeds with its long-planned assault on the area, capturing the Gaza side of the border crossing with Egypt and ordering displaced families to move yet again.

The Israeli army announced on Tuesday morning that its 401st Brigade had taken “operational control” of the Rafah border crossing after advancing into the eastern part during the night as part of its mission to dislodge Hamas.

Earlier on Monday, Israel ordered some 100,000 Palestinians in eastern Rafah to “evacuate immediately” to Al-Mawasi, a coastal town near Khan Younis that humanitarian organizations said was “completely uninhabitable.”

Mercy Corps said Palestinians in eastern Rafah were confronted with two impossible choices: Face death under bombardment or attempt a perilous journey to an unlivable area with no access to essential aid.




Smoke billows after Israeli bombardment in Rafah. (AFP)

Bushra Khalidi, advocacy director for Oxfam in the Palestinian territories, says civilians fleeing Rafah have been left with nowhere to go.

She told Arab News that people in Rafah “are worried of even leaving their homes” because they fear they will not find anywhere in the middle area or in Al-Mawasi.

According to the AFP news agency, more than 74 percent of the infrastructure in Gaza has been destroyed since Oct. 7 when Israel launched its bombing campaign in retaliation for the Hamas-led attack on southern Israel.

Al-Mawasi, which Israel had dubbed a “humanitarian zone,” is “already overpopulated and filled with makeshift tents,” said Khalidi. “There is no infrastructure, there (are) no services, and no facilities to host this number of (internally displaced people).”

Moreover, this narrow coastal strip, measuring just 1 km wide and 14 km long, already hosts an estimated 250,000 displaced Gazans, according to the Palestinian Red Crescent.

Ahmed Bayram, media adviser for the Norwegian Refugee Council in the Middle East, stressed that “there is not a corner or a street in Gaza where people can go expecting safety.”




Israeli tanks enter the Gazan side of the Rafah border crossing on Tuesday, May 7, 2024. (AP/Israeli Army)

He told Arab News: “Al-Mawasi, which is one of the areas Israel has asked people to go to, is full to the very brim. There is no free spot left in that narrow stretch of land, which is not equipped for such high demand.”

According to Mercy Corps, Al-Mawasi is already a sea of makeshift tents, with little in the way of humanitarian relief, electricity, or water.

It also remains unclear whether Palestinians can flee to neighboring countries through the Rafah crossing now that it is under Israeli control, said Ruth James, Oxfam’s regional humanitarian coordinator for the Middle East and North Africa.

She told Arab News: “Many Palestinians in Gaza currently do not have the recognized right to return to their original homes. Given this context, Egypt, or any other state, should be cautious of inadvertently abetting any potential efforts by Israel, or any other party, to ethnically cleanse the Palestinian population of Gaza.”

Volker Turk, the UN human rights chief, slammed Israel’s evacuation order as “inhumane,” warning that such an action could amount to a war crime, Reuters reported.

Oxfam’s Khalidi also warned that if a Rafah-wide incursion happens, which is the worst-case scenario, it would “entail mass carnage and a complete bloodbath.”




An injured Palestinian boy awaits treatment at the Kuwaiti hospital following Israeli strikes in Rafah. (AFP)

She explained that this is due to “how small” Rafah is and “because of how congested and overpopulated it is.”

Echoing her colleague’s fears, James said: “It’s hard to imagine the scale of need caused by a Rafah invasion. Simply put, this invasion can’t happen. There must be an immediate and permanent ceasefire.”

She added: “The alternative is an avoidable, massive loss of civilian life.”

Despite repeated public objections, even US President Joe Biden’s appeals against the Rafah offensive have gone unheeded.

According to the Associated Press, Biden urgently warned Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in a phone call on Monday against invading Rafah, stressing it would only lead to more deaths and exacerbate the despair in the embattled enclave.

The Israeli military said its operation in Rafah is designed to eliminate fighters and dismantle infrastructure used by Hamas, according to Reuters.




An aerial view of cargo trucks relocated away from the Rafah border crossing with Egypt. (Maxar Technologies)

Israel’s overnight strikes across Rafah killed at least 23 people, including five children, according to local health officials.

Prior to that, Israeli warplanes pounded homes in Rafah, killing at least 27 Palestinians, including two babies, according to Gaza’s health authority.

This is despite Hamas accepting the terms of a Qatari-Egyptian ceasefire proposal on Monday.

Humanitarian organizations concur that the impact of Israel’s operation in Rafah will extend beyond the eastern area, affecting more than 1.4 million people who have been sheltering in the southern governorate — and the entirety of Gaza’s remaining population.

“While the initial ‘evacuation orders’ and operations announced in the east of Rafah are directly impacting 100,000 people, over 1.4 million are sheltering in Rafah, half of which are children, and are at direct risk of any escalated military operations across the area,” Salim Oweis, a spokesperson for UNICEF in Gaza, told Arab News.




Displaced Palestinians flee Rafah for safer areas in southern Gaza. (AFP)

“The extended impact will be far-reaching to include all the 2.2 million residents of Gaza.”

Elaborating, Oweis added: “Rafah is the main hub of all humanitarian response, and any impact on the already struggling aid delivery and humanitarian response will hamper the efforts across Gaza.”

Rafah is the last population center in the Gaza Strip after the seven-month Israeli assault obliterated three-quarters of the besieged enclave, killing at least 34,700 Palestinians according to Gaza’s health ministry, and displacing 90 percent of the population of 2.3 million people.  

Israel’s evacuation orders in eastern Rafah, coupled with unceasing airstrikes across Gaza’s south, have instilled panic among the war-weary residents, triggering an exodus of thousands of Palestinians who have nowhere to seek refuge.

Describing the situation across the Gaza Strip as “a state of despair, chaos and confusion” as Israel carries out its assault on Rafah, NRC’s Bayram said that “by issuing its orders, Israel has again pushed over 1 million people into the unknown.”

FASTFACTS

• Israel ordered Palestinians to evacuate to Al-Mawasi — deemed ‘completely uninhabitable.’

• Closing Rafah crossing would cut Gaza’s only viable humanitarian lifeline, warn aid chiefs.

• Fears that Rafah-wide incursion would ‘entail mass carnage and a complete bloodbath.’

He added: “Let’s not forget, while the orders cover an area with 100,000 people east of Rafah, the rest of the population in central and western areas will think they are next to be forcibly transferred, and so they will try to get out while they can.”

Tahani Mustafa, a senior Palestine analyst at the International Crisis Group, foresees a “horrific” humanitarian situation if the Rafah hostilities do not stop.

“All movement of people and goods has been closed off, at a time where famine is already in the north and was very much on the verge in the south,” she told Arab News.

“There’s been no contingency plan in place, and all foreign aid delegations have been evacuated. If this goes ahead as Israel states, it will be a massacre.”




Gallant promised to “deepen” the Rafah operation if hostage deal talks failed. (AFP)

As Israel has blocked aid through the Rafah border crossing, aid groups are concerned about the impact on much-needed humanitarian assistance across the Gaza Strip. This concern is exacerbated by the suspension of aid deliveries to Gaza through the Kerem Shalom crossing following a nearby Hamas rocket attack.

Oxfam’s James cautioned that “even one day of closure (of crossing points) means that additional lives are likely to be lost to hunger and illness.”

She called on Israel to “adhere to its obligations under international humanitarian law to ensure civilian populations are provided with the most essential aid in sufficient quantities.”

Khalidi pointed out that aid organizations “are already facing huge obstructions” in delivering aid across Gaza.

“Often aid is not making it even past Khan Younis,” she said. “And hence the descent to hell, into starvation, that we have seen over the last course of months in the north, but also across the strip.”

Stressing the need to open “all crossings” to meet the immense and deep humanitarian needs in Gaza, Khalidi said: “We’re hearing that maybe other crossings will open, but the problem is that we already had two crossings open, and that was not enough.”




Displaced Palestinians arrive in Khan Yunis after Israel issued an evacuation order for parts of Rafah. (AFP)

The World Food Programme warned on Saturday that northern Gaza is experiencing a “full-blown famine,” which is “moving its way south.”

Bayram of the NRC also warned that “the entire aid system is at the point of collapse.”

He said: “Closing down the Rafah crossing means cutting off the only viable lifeline currently available for aid workers,” highlighting that the NRC relies on the Rafah crossing to bring in essential aid.

“Fuel is running low already and the existing stocks will not be able to sustain increasing demand,” he added, stressing that “Israel must reverse its plans so we can avoid an inevitable catastrophe.”

UNICEF’s Oweis emphasized that “any interruption to the already limited aid access will have a devastating impact on the humanitarian situation as a whole.”

He added: “With no fuel coming in, all the basic services will be in jeopardy of a total halt, including aid delivery and what’s left of healthcare.

“Not having food entering the strip means that more children will fall into malnutrition and disease, and will be put at heightened risk of death.”




A woman mourns a child killed by Israeli strikes on Rafah. (AFP)

Gaza’s health authority reported on April 25 that since February, at least 28 children, most of them no older than 12 months, had died of malnutrition and dehydration.

Oweis stressed that “the only hope for a way out of a worsening humanitarian catastrophe is simple, and it’s an immediate and long-lasting humanitarian ceasefire.”

He added: “Meanwhile, safe and consistent access for humanitarian organizations and personnel to reach children and their families with lifesaving aid, wherever they are in the Gaza Strip, is crucial.”


Iran says nuclear talks with US ‘meaningless’ after Israel attack

Updated 14 June 2025
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Iran says nuclear talks with US ‘meaningless’ after Israel attack

  • "You cannot claim to negotiate and at the same time divide work by allowing the Zionist regime (Israel) to target Iran’s territory,” says Iran's foreign ministry spokesman

CAIRO: Iran said on Friday the dialogue with the US over Tehran’s nuclear program is “meaningless” after Israel’s biggest-ever military strike against its longstanding enemy, accusing Washington of supporting the attack.

“The other side (the US) acted in a way that makes dialogue meaningless. You cannot claim to negotiate and at the same time divide work by allowing the Zionist regime (Israel) to target Iran’s territory,” the semi-official Tasnim news agency quoted foreign ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei as saying.

He said Israel “succeeded in influencing” the diplomatic process and the Israeli attack would not have happened without Washington’s permission.

Iran earlier accused the US of being complicit in Israel’s attacks, but Washington denied the allegation and told Tehran at the United Nations Security Council that it would be “wise” to negotiate over its nuclear program.

The sixth round of US-Iran nuclear talks was set to be held on Sunday in Muscat, but it was unclear whether it would go ahead after the Israeli strikes.

Iran denies that its uranium enrichment program is for anything other than civilian purposes, rejecting Israeli allegations that it is secretly developing nuclear weapons.

US President Donald Trump told Reuters that he and his team had known the Israeli attacks were coming but they still saw room for an accord.


‘Enough escalation. Time to stop,’ UN chief says after Israel-Iran strikes

Updated 14 June 2025
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‘Enough escalation. Time to stop,’ UN chief says after Israel-Iran strikes

  • Peace and diplomacy must prevail,” Antonio Guterres said on X after Israel’s “preemptive” strikes on Iran and Tehran’s counter-attack

UNITED NATIONS, United States: The UN chief called Friday for Israel and Iran to halt their escalating conflict, after the two countries exchanged a barrage of missiles.
“Enough escalation. Time to stop. Peace and diplomacy must prevail,” Antonio Guterres said on X after Israel’s “preemptive” strikes on Iran and Tehran’s counter-attack.
 

 


At UN, Iran accuses US of being complicit in Israeli strikes

Updated 14 June 2025
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At UN, Iran accuses US of being complicit in Israeli strikes

  • Council the above-ground pilot enrichment plant at Iran's Natanz nuclear site had been destroyed, and that Iran has reported that nuclear sites at Fordow and Isfahan were also attacked

UNITED NATIONS: Iran accused the United States of being complicit in Israel's attacks on the Islamic Republic, which Washington denied, telling Tehran at the United Nations Security Council that it would "be wise" to negotiate over its nuclear programme. Iran launched retaliatory strikes on Israel late on Friday after Israel attacked Iran earlier in the day.

Israel's U.N. Ambassador Danny Danon said Iran had been "preparing for war" and Israel's strikes were "an act of national preservation." His Iranian counterpart, Amir Saeid Iravani, accused Israel of seeking "to kill diplomacy, to sabotage negotiations, and to drag the region into wider conflict," and he said Washington's complicity was "beyond doubt". "Those who support this regime, with the United States at the forefront, must understand that they are complicit," Iravani told the Security Council. "By aiding and enabling these crimes, they share full responsibility for the consequences."

HIGHLIGHTS

• UN Security Council met over Israel's strikes on Iran

• US says Iran would 'be wise' to negotiate on nuclear program

• Iran accuses US of being complicit in Israel's strikes

U.S. President Donald Trump said Friday that he had given Tehran a 60-day ultimatum, which expired on Thursday, to make a deal over its escalating uranium enrichment program. A sixth round of U.S.-Iran talks had been scheduled to take place in Oman on Sunday, but it was unclear whether it would go ahead. Danon said Israel had been patient despite mounting risks.

"We waited for diplomacy to work ... We watched negotiations stretch on, as Iran made false concessions or refused the most fundamental conditions," Danon told the Security Council. He said intelligence had confirmed Iran could have produced enough fissile material for multiple bombs within days.

Senior U.S. official McCoy Pitt said the United States will continue to seek a diplomatic resolution that ensures Iran will never acquire a nuclear weapon or pose a threat to stability in the Middle East. "Iran's leadership would be wise to negotiate at this time," Pitt told the council. While Washington was informed of Israel's initial strikes ahead of time it was not militarily involved, he said. U.N. nuclear watchdog chief Rafael Grossi told the Security Council the above-ground pilot enrichment plant at Iran's Natanz nuclear site had been destroyed, and that Iran has reported that nuclear sites at Fordow and Isfahan were also attacked.

 


US helps Israel shoot down barrage of Iranian missiles

Updated 14 June 2025
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US helps Israel shoot down barrage of Iranian missiles

  • US also is shifting military resources, including ships, in the Middle East in response to the strikes
  • About 40,000 troops are in the Mideast region now, according to a US official

WASHINGTON: American air defense systems and Navy assets in the Middle East helped Israel shoot down incoming ballistic missiles Friday that Tehran launched in response to Israeli strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities and top military leaders, US officials said.
The US has both ground-based Patriot missile defense systems and Terminal High Altitude Air Defense systems in the region capable of intercepting ballistic missiles, which Iran fired in multiple barrages in retaliation for Israel’s initial attack.
Naval assets also were involved in assisting Israel as Iran fired missiles at Tel Aviv, one official said. It was not immediately clear if ships fired interceptors or if their advanced missile tracking systems helped Israel identify incoming targets.
The United States also is shifting military resources, including ships, in the Middle East in response to the strikes.
The Navy has directed the destroyer USS Thomas Hudner, which is capable of defending against ballistic missiles, to begin sailing from the western Mediterranean Sea toward the eastern Mediterranean and has directed a second destroyer to begin moving forward so it can be available if requested by the White House, US officials said.
American fighter jets also are patrolling the sky in the Middle East to protect personnel and installations, and air bases in the region are taking additional security precautions, the officials said.
The officials spoke on the condition of anonymity to provide details not yet made public or to discuss ongoing operations.
President Donald Trump met with his National Security Council principals Friday to discuss options.
The forces in the region have been taking precautionary measures for days, including having military dependents voluntarily depart regional bases, in anticipation of the strikes and to protect personnel in case of a large-scale response from Tehran.
Typically around 30,000 troops are based in the Middle East, and about 40,000 troops are in the region now, according to a US official. That number surged as high as 43,000 last October amid the ongoing tensions between Israel and Iran as well as continuous attacks on commercial and military ships in the Red Sea by the Iranian-backed Houthis in Yemen.
The Navy has additional assets that it could surge to the Middle East if needed, particularly its aircraft carriers and the warships that sail with them. The USS Carl Vinson is in the Arabian Sea — the only aircraft carrier in the region.
The carrier USS Nimitz is in the Indo-Pacific and could be directed toward the Middle East if needed, and the USS George Washington just left its port in Japan and could also be directed to the region if so ordered, one of the officials said.
Then-President Joe Biden initially surged ships to protect Israel following the Oct. 7, 2023, attacks by Hamas that launched the war in Gaza. It was seen as a deterrent against Hezbollah and Iran at the time.
On Oct. 1, 2024, US Navy destroyers fired about a dozen interceptors in defense of Israel as the country came under attack by more than 200 missiles fired by Iran.


Iran’s top military commanders, 6 nuclear scientists among 78 killed in Israeli strikes

Updated 14 June 2025
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Iran’s top military commanders, 6 nuclear scientists among 78 killed in Israeli strikes

  • Khamenei, Revolutionary Guards warn Israel of “harsh punishment” for its attacks
  • Dead scientists identified as Fereydoun Abbasi-Davani and Mohammad Mehdi Tehranchi

RIYADH: Iran’s Supreme Leader Khamenei confirmed on Friday that several military commanders and scientists were “martyred” in Israeli strikes on Tehran.

In a statement carried on state television, Khamenei warned that Israel will not go unpunished for its attacks.

“We will not allow them to escape safely from this great crime they committed,” Khamenei said in a recorded message. 

“With this crime, the Zionist regime has prepared for itself a bitter, painful fate, which it will definitely see.”

Iran’s UN ambassador said 78 people were killed and more than 320 wounded in Israeli attacks.

Among those killed were four of Iran’s top military leaders. 

State television and local media identified them as General Bagheri, chief of staff of Iran’s armed forces; Major General Hossein Salami, commander in chief of the paramilitary Revolutionary Guard, or IRGC; Major General Gholam Ali Rashid, commander of Khatam-al Anbiya Central Headquarters; and Brigadier General Amir Ali Hajizadeh, commander of the IRGC of the IRGC Aerospace Force. 

Iran’s Nournews reported that Ali Shamkhani, a rear admiral who serves as adviser to Khamenei, was “critically injured.”

Local media confirmed that six scientists working on Iran’s nuclear program were killed, four of them identified as Fereydoun Abbasi-Davani, Mohammad Mehdi Tehranch, Ahmad Reza Zolfaghari, and Amirhossein Feqhi.

New appointments

Immediately after the strike, Khomenei appointed Major General Abdolrahim Mousavi, as the new chief of staff of the Iranian Armed Forces. Mousavi, the army commander since 2017, replaced Bagheri

Replacing Mousavi as army chief was Brigadier General Amir Hatami, who was promoted to the rank of major general. 

Major General Mohammad Pakpour was appointed as the new IRGC chief, replacing “martyred” Salami.

Appointed as new commander of Khatam al-Anbia Central Headquarters, replacing Ali Rashid, was Brigadier General Ali Shadmani. He was promoted to the rank of major general.

The Khatam al-Anbia Central Headquarters is a subdivision of the General Staff of the Iranian Armed Forces that is tasked with the layout and arrangement of operations involving various Iranian military units.

As General Pakpour assumed his new post, he warned the Israeli regime to brace for a painful fate.

“The criminal and illegitimate Zionist regime will suffer a bitter and painful fate with huge and destructive consequences,” Iran’s Tasnim News agency quoted Pakpour as saying in a letter to Supreme Leader Khamenei.

With the help of God, the gates of hell will soon be opened upon this child-killing regime, he wrote.

Below is a list of the commanders and scientists killed:

Mohammad Bagheri

A former IRGC commander, Major General Bagheri was chief of staff of Iran’s armed forces from 2016. Born in 1960, Bagheri joined the Guards during the Iran-Iraq war of the 1980s.

Hossein Salami

Salami was commander-in-chief of Iran’s elite Revolutionary Guards Corps, or IRGC. Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei appointed Salami, who was born in 1960, as head of the IRGC in 2019.

Amir Ali Hajizadeh

Hajizadeh was the head of the Revolutionary Guards’ Aerospace Force. Israel has identified him as the central figure responsible for directing aerial attacks against its territory. In 2020, Hajizadeh took responsibility for the downing of a Ukrainian passenger plane, which occurred shortly after Iran launched missile strikes on US targets in Iraq in retaliation for the US drone strike that killed Qassem Soleimani.

Gholamali Rashid

Major General Rashid was head of the IRGC’s Khatam al Anbia headquarters. He previously served as deputy chief of staff of the Iranian Armed Forces, and fought for Iran during the 1980s war with Iraq.

Fereydoun Abbasi-Davani

Abbasi, a nuclear scientist, served as head of Iran’s Atomic Energy Organization from 2011 to 2013. A hardliner, Abbasi was a member of parliament from 2020 to 2024.

Mohammad Mehdi Tehranchi

Tehranchi, a nuclear scientist, was head of Iran’s Islamic Azad University in Tehran.

Ahmad Reza Zolfaghari

Ahmad Reza Zolfaghari, a nuclear engineering professor at Shahid Beheshti University.

Amirhossein Feqhi

Amirhossein Feqhi, another nuclear professor at Shahid Beheshti University.