Why Israel’s military operation in Rafah will lead to ‘inevitable catastrophe’ in Gaza

Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant talks with soldiers during a visit to the border with the Gaza Strip near Rafah. (AFP/Israeli Army)
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Updated 08 May 2024
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Why Israel’s military operation in Rafah will lead to ‘inevitable catastrophe’ in Gaza

  • Israel has seized control of the Rafah border crossing and ordered 100,000 Palestinians to “evacuate immediately”
  • Full-scale assault on Rafah would intensify humanitarian emergency throughout Gaza, aid agencies warn

LONDON: Palestinians in Gaza’s southern governorate of Rafah face a desperate situation as the Israeli military proceeds with its long-planned assault on the area, capturing the Gaza side of the border crossing with Egypt and ordering displaced families to move yet again.

The Israeli army announced on Tuesday morning that its 401st Brigade had taken “operational control” of the Rafah border crossing after advancing into the eastern part during the night as part of its mission to dislodge Hamas.

Earlier on Monday, Israel ordered some 100,000 Palestinians in eastern Rafah to “evacuate immediately” to Al-Mawasi, a coastal town near Khan Younis that humanitarian organizations said was “completely uninhabitable.”

Mercy Corps said Palestinians in eastern Rafah were confronted with two impossible choices: Face death under bombardment or attempt a perilous journey to an unlivable area with no access to essential aid.




Smoke billows after Israeli bombardment in Rafah. (AFP)

Bushra Khalidi, advocacy director for Oxfam in the Palestinian territories, says civilians fleeing Rafah have been left with nowhere to go.

She told Arab News that people in Rafah “are worried of even leaving their homes” because they fear they will not find anywhere in the middle area or in Al-Mawasi.

According to the AFP news agency, more than 74 percent of the infrastructure in Gaza has been destroyed since Oct. 7 when Israel launched its bombing campaign in retaliation for the Hamas-led attack on southern Israel.

Al-Mawasi, which Israel had dubbed a “humanitarian zone,” is “already overpopulated and filled with makeshift tents,” said Khalidi. “There is no infrastructure, there (are) no services, and no facilities to host this number of (internally displaced people).”

Moreover, this narrow coastal strip, measuring just 1 km wide and 14 km long, already hosts an estimated 250,000 displaced Gazans, according to the Palestinian Red Crescent.

Ahmed Bayram, media adviser for the Norwegian Refugee Council in the Middle East, stressed that “there is not a corner or a street in Gaza where people can go expecting safety.”




Israeli tanks enter the Gazan side of the Rafah border crossing on Tuesday, May 7, 2024. (AP/Israeli Army)

He told Arab News: “Al-Mawasi, which is one of the areas Israel has asked people to go to, is full to the very brim. There is no free spot left in that narrow stretch of land, which is not equipped for such high demand.”

According to Mercy Corps, Al-Mawasi is already a sea of makeshift tents, with little in the way of humanitarian relief, electricity, or water.

It also remains unclear whether Palestinians can flee to neighboring countries through the Rafah crossing now that it is under Israeli control, said Ruth James, Oxfam’s regional humanitarian coordinator for the Middle East and North Africa.

She told Arab News: “Many Palestinians in Gaza currently do not have the recognized right to return to their original homes. Given this context, Egypt, or any other state, should be cautious of inadvertently abetting any potential efforts by Israel, or any other party, to ethnically cleanse the Palestinian population of Gaza.”

Volker Turk, the UN human rights chief, slammed Israel’s evacuation order as “inhumane,” warning that such an action could amount to a war crime, Reuters reported.

Oxfam’s Khalidi also warned that if a Rafah-wide incursion happens, which is the worst-case scenario, it would “entail mass carnage and a complete bloodbath.”




An injured Palestinian boy awaits treatment at the Kuwaiti hospital following Israeli strikes in Rafah. (AFP)

She explained that this is due to “how small” Rafah is and “because of how congested and overpopulated it is.”

Echoing her colleague’s fears, James said: “It’s hard to imagine the scale of need caused by a Rafah invasion. Simply put, this invasion can’t happen. There must be an immediate and permanent ceasefire.”

She added: “The alternative is an avoidable, massive loss of civilian life.”

Despite repeated public objections, even US President Joe Biden’s appeals against the Rafah offensive have gone unheeded.

According to the Associated Press, Biden urgently warned Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in a phone call on Monday against invading Rafah, stressing it would only lead to more deaths and exacerbate the despair in the embattled enclave.

The Israeli military said its operation in Rafah is designed to eliminate fighters and dismantle infrastructure used by Hamas, according to Reuters.




An aerial view of cargo trucks relocated away from the Rafah border crossing with Egypt. (Maxar Technologies)

Israel’s overnight strikes across Rafah killed at least 23 people, including five children, according to local health officials.

Prior to that, Israeli warplanes pounded homes in Rafah, killing at least 27 Palestinians, including two babies, according to Gaza’s health authority.

This is despite Hamas accepting the terms of a Qatari-Egyptian ceasefire proposal on Monday.

Humanitarian organizations concur that the impact of Israel’s operation in Rafah will extend beyond the eastern area, affecting more than 1.4 million people who have been sheltering in the southern governorate — and the entirety of Gaza’s remaining population.

“While the initial ‘evacuation orders’ and operations announced in the east of Rafah are directly impacting 100,000 people, over 1.4 million are sheltering in Rafah, half of which are children, and are at direct risk of any escalated military operations across the area,” Salim Oweis, a spokesperson for UNICEF in Gaza, told Arab News.




Displaced Palestinians flee Rafah for safer areas in southern Gaza. (AFP)

“The extended impact will be far-reaching to include all the 2.2 million residents of Gaza.”

Elaborating, Oweis added: “Rafah is the main hub of all humanitarian response, and any impact on the already struggling aid delivery and humanitarian response will hamper the efforts across Gaza.”

Rafah is the last population center in the Gaza Strip after the seven-month Israeli assault obliterated three-quarters of the besieged enclave, killing at least 34,700 Palestinians according to Gaza’s health ministry, and displacing 90 percent of the population of 2.3 million people.  

Israel’s evacuation orders in eastern Rafah, coupled with unceasing airstrikes across Gaza’s south, have instilled panic among the war-weary residents, triggering an exodus of thousands of Palestinians who have nowhere to seek refuge.

Describing the situation across the Gaza Strip as “a state of despair, chaos and confusion” as Israel carries out its assault on Rafah, NRC’s Bayram said that “by issuing its orders, Israel has again pushed over 1 million people into the unknown.”

FASTFACTS

• Israel ordered Palestinians to evacuate to Al-Mawasi — deemed ‘completely uninhabitable.’

• Closing Rafah crossing would cut Gaza’s only viable humanitarian lifeline, warn aid chiefs.

• Fears that Rafah-wide incursion would ‘entail mass carnage and a complete bloodbath.’

He added: “Let’s not forget, while the orders cover an area with 100,000 people east of Rafah, the rest of the population in central and western areas will think they are next to be forcibly transferred, and so they will try to get out while they can.”

Tahani Mustafa, a senior Palestine analyst at the International Crisis Group, foresees a “horrific” humanitarian situation if the Rafah hostilities do not stop.

“All movement of people and goods has been closed off, at a time where famine is already in the north and was very much on the verge in the south,” she told Arab News.

“There’s been no contingency plan in place, and all foreign aid delegations have been evacuated. If this goes ahead as Israel states, it will be a massacre.”




Gallant promised to “deepen” the Rafah operation if hostage deal talks failed. (AFP)

As Israel has blocked aid through the Rafah border crossing, aid groups are concerned about the impact on much-needed humanitarian assistance across the Gaza Strip. This concern is exacerbated by the suspension of aid deliveries to Gaza through the Kerem Shalom crossing following a nearby Hamas rocket attack.

Oxfam’s James cautioned that “even one day of closure (of crossing points) means that additional lives are likely to be lost to hunger and illness.”

She called on Israel to “adhere to its obligations under international humanitarian law to ensure civilian populations are provided with the most essential aid in sufficient quantities.”

Khalidi pointed out that aid organizations “are already facing huge obstructions” in delivering aid across Gaza.

“Often aid is not making it even past Khan Younis,” she said. “And hence the descent to hell, into starvation, that we have seen over the last course of months in the north, but also across the strip.”

Stressing the need to open “all crossings” to meet the immense and deep humanitarian needs in Gaza, Khalidi said: “We’re hearing that maybe other crossings will open, but the problem is that we already had two crossings open, and that was not enough.”




Displaced Palestinians arrive in Khan Yunis after Israel issued an evacuation order for parts of Rafah. (AFP)

The World Food Programme warned on Saturday that northern Gaza is experiencing a “full-blown famine,” which is “moving its way south.”

Bayram of the NRC also warned that “the entire aid system is at the point of collapse.”

He said: “Closing down the Rafah crossing means cutting off the only viable lifeline currently available for aid workers,” highlighting that the NRC relies on the Rafah crossing to bring in essential aid.

“Fuel is running low already and the existing stocks will not be able to sustain increasing demand,” he added, stressing that “Israel must reverse its plans so we can avoid an inevitable catastrophe.”

UNICEF’s Oweis emphasized that “any interruption to the already limited aid access will have a devastating impact on the humanitarian situation as a whole.”

He added: “With no fuel coming in, all the basic services will be in jeopardy of a total halt, including aid delivery and what’s left of healthcare.

“Not having food entering the strip means that more children will fall into malnutrition and disease, and will be put at heightened risk of death.”




A woman mourns a child killed by Israeli strikes on Rafah. (AFP)

Gaza’s health authority reported on April 25 that since February, at least 28 children, most of them no older than 12 months, had died of malnutrition and dehydration.

Oweis stressed that “the only hope for a way out of a worsening humanitarian catastrophe is simple, and it’s an immediate and long-lasting humanitarian ceasefire.”

He added: “Meanwhile, safe and consistent access for humanitarian organizations and personnel to reach children and their families with lifesaving aid, wherever they are in the Gaza Strip, is crucial.”


Ailing S.Sudan president prepares volatile succession

Updated 5 sec ago
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Ailing S.Sudan president prepares volatile succession

JUBA: With South Sudan’s President Salva Kiir undergoing medical tests abroad after years of rumors about his health, analysts say a long-gestating plan has been set in motion to secure his succession.
Kiir returned from at least 10 days in the United Arab Emirates on Wednesday, with state media saying he had been “exploring new avenues for economic cooperation.”
But members of his entourage, speaking on condition of anonymity, previously told AFP he was there for medical tests — reinforcing long-held concerns about the 73-year-old’s health.
The world’s youngest country, South Sudan has been plagued by poverty and violence since gaining independence in 2011, including a civil war that killed some 400,000 people in 2013-2018.
After a few relatively calm years, the country has been thrown back into turmoil in recent months, prompted, say analysts, by Kiir’s declining health and his efforts to install his heir-apparent, businessman Benjamin Bol Mel, in power.
Bol Mel is a controversial figure, who gained prominence as a construction magnate and was said to handle the Kiir family’s finances.
He was placed on a sanctions list by the United States in 2017 for corruption.
For months, Kiir has been manoeuvring to sideline rivals.
His old foe, Riek Machar, against whom he fought the civil war, was placed under house arrest in March and many of his political allies disappeared into detention.
Kiir’s forces have attacked Machar’s military bases and other armed groups drawn from his ethnic group, the Nuer.
More than 700 people were killed in clashes between January and March alone, according to the United Nations.


Rumours about Kiir’s health have long circulated but the topic is absolutely off-limits for discussion in official circles.
“If you want to visit a grave quickly, talk about it,” said a local activist, requesting anonymity for safety reasons.
Nonetheless, the frailty was obvious in April when Kiir hosted Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni, who walked briskly despite his 80 years while Kiir moved in tiny steps.
In May, the foreign ministry had to issue a statement assuring that the head of state was still alive following rumors to the contrary on social media.
State media footage of Kiir’s return from the UAE on Wednesday cut away every time he was about to take a step.
During his absence, it was Bol Mel — who was named second vice president in February and deputy head of the ruling party in May — who chaired last week’s cabinet meeting.
“It seems to be a script written a long time ago and being implemented in phases,” said Wani Michael, a former activist now in exile.
“They had to take away Riek Machar to pave the way for Bol Mel because... Riek would give Bol Mel a hard time,” he added.
In October, Kiir also fired his intelligence chief, Akol Koor, another potential rival who held that post for 13 years.
Bol Mel “has taken control of the security forces by installing loyalists. He has taken over the security and financial apparatus since last November-December,” said a diplomat based in Juba, also speaking on condition of anonymity.


Despite an uptick in violence, the moves have not triggered renewed war as many feared.
“It’s devastating on a humanitarian level, but it’s nothing compared to the colossal massacres of a few years ago when thousands died each month,” said the diplomat, adding that the government “has been fairly successful in subduing the various rebellions.”
Machar’s forces have barely retaliated to attacks and his party is split on the way forward.
But success is not guaranteed for Bol Mel, either, warned local analyst James Boboya.
“The government has not gained legitimacy at home or internationally,” he told AFP.
There is particular disillusionment at the failure to hold the country’s first-ever elections, which were again postponed last year to 2026.
“Elections are the only viable way for a peaceful transfer of power,” said Edmund Yakani, president of the Community Empowerment for Progress Organization, a local NGO.
“We need the power of our vote in shaping the future. Not the bullet, and not leaders imposed on us.”

Netanyahu vows to uproot Hamas as ceasefire proposals are discussed

Updated 03 July 2025
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Netanyahu vows to uproot Hamas as ceasefire proposals are discussed

  • Nearly 21 months of war have created dire humanitarian conditions for the more than two million people in the Gaza Strip, where Israel has recently expanded its military operations

Gaza City, Palestinian Territories: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Wednesday vowed to eradicate Hamas, even as the Palestinian militant group said it was discussing new proposals from mediators for a ceasefire in Gaza.
The Israeli leader had yet to comment on US President Donald Trump’s claim that Israel had backed a plan for a 60-day truce in its offensive against Hamas in the war-ravaged territory.
But a week ahead of talks scheduled with Trump in Washington, he vowed to “destroy” Hamas “down to their very foundation.”
Hamas said it was “conducting national consultations to discuss” the proposals submitted in negotiations mediated by Qatar and Egypt.
Nearly 21 months of war have created dire humanitarian conditions for the more than two million people in the Gaza Strip, where Israel has recently expanded its military operations.
The civil defense agency said that Israeli forces had killed at least 47 people on Wednesday.
Among the dead was Marwan Al-Sultan, director of the Indonesian Hospital, a key clinic in the north of Gaza, Palestinian officials said.
Trump on Tuesday urged Hamas to accept a 60-day ceasefire, saying that Israel had agreed to finalize such a deal.
Hamas said in a statement that it was studying the latest proposals and aiming “to reach an agreement that guarantees ending the aggression, achieving the withdrawal (of Israeli forces from Gaza) and urgently aiding our people in the Gaza Strip.”
Netanyahu vowed however: “We will free all our hostages, and we will eliminate Hamas. It will be no more,” in filmed comments in the city of Ashkelon near Gaza’s northern border.
Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Saar earlier said that he saw “some positive signs,” amid high pressure to bring home the hostages.
“We are serious in our will to reach a hostage deal and a ceasefire,” he said. “Our goal is to begin proximity talks as soon as possible.”
Out of 251 hostages seized by Palestinian militants in October 2023, 49 are still held in Gaza, including 27 the Israeli military says are dead.
A Palestinian source familiar with the mediated negotiations told AFP that “there are no fundamental changes in the new proposal” under discussion compared to previous terms presented by the United States.
The source said that the new proposal “includes a 60-day truce, during which Hamas would release half of the living Israeli captives in the Gaza Strip, in exchange for Israel releasing a number of Palestinian prisoners and detainees.”
In southern Gaza, civil defense spokesman Mahmud Bassal told AFP that five members of the same family were killed in an Israeli air strike on Wednesday that hit a tent housing displaced people in the Al-Mawasi area.
Despite being declared a safe zone by Israel in December 2023, Al-Mawasi has been hit by repeated Israeli strikes.
AFP footage from the area showed makeshift tents blown apart as Palestinians picked through the wreckage trying to salvage what was left of their belongings.
“They came here thinking it was a safe area and they were killed. What did they do?” said one resident, Maha Abu Rizq, against a backdrop of destruction.
AFP footage from nearby Khan Yunis city showed infants covered in blood being rushed into Nasser Hospital. One man carrying a child whose face was smeared with blood screamed: “Children, children!“
Among other fatalities, Bassal later reported five people killed by Israeli army fire near an aid distribution site close to the southern city of Rafah and a further death following Israeli fire near an aid site in the center of the territory.
They were the latest in a string of deadly incidents that have hit people trying to receive food.
Media restrictions in Gaza and difficulties in accessing many areas mean AFP is unable to independently verify the tolls and details provided by rescuers.
Contacted by AFP, the Israeli military said it “is operating to dismantle Hamas military capabilities” in line with “international law, and takes feasible precautions to mitigate civilian harm.”
It said in a statement that a 19-year-old sergeant in its forces “fell during combat in the northern Gaza Strip.”
The military late on Wednesday issued a fresh evacuation warning to residents for three neighborhoods of Gaza City, urging them to flee south to the Mawasi area.
Israeli forces are “operating with extreme intensity in the area and will attack any location being used to launch missiles toward the State of Israel,” Arabic-language spokesman Avichay Adraee said in a message on Telegram.
“The destruction of terrorist organizations will continue and expand into the city center, encompassing all neighborhoods of the city,” Avichay wrote.
The military earlier said that its air force had intercepted two “projectiles” that crossed from northern Gaza into Israeli territory.
Israel launched its offensive in response to Hamas’s October 7, 2023 attack which resulted in the deaths of 1,219 people, mostly civilians, according to an AFP tally based on Israeli official figures.
Israel’s retaliatory military campaign has killed at least 57,012 people in Gaza, also mostly civilians, according to the Hamas-run territory’s health ministry. The United Nations considers its figures reliable.


Israeli Likud party ministers urge Netanyahu to annex West Bank

Updated 03 July 2025
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Israeli Likud party ministers urge Netanyahu to annex West Bank

  • The petition was signed by 15 cabinet ministers and Amir Ohana, speaker of the Knesset, Israel’s parliament

Cabinet ministers in Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud party called on Wednesday for Israel to annex the Israeli-occupied West Bank before the Knesset recesses at the end of the month.
They issued a petition ahead of Netanyahu’s meeting next week with US President Donald Trump, where discussions are expected to center on a potential 60-day Gaza ceasefire and hostage release deal with Hamas.
The petition was signed by 15 cabinet ministers and Amir Ohana, speaker of the Knesset, Israel’s parliament.
There was no immediate response from the prime minister’s office. Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer, long a confidant of Netanyahu, did not sign the petition. He has been in Washington since Monday for talks on Iran and Gaza.
“We ministers and members of Knesset call for applying Israeli sovereignty and law immediately on Judea and Samaria,” they wrote, using the biblical names for the West Bank captured by Israel in the 1967 Middle East war.
Their petition cited Israel’s recent achievements against both Iran and Iran’s allies and the opportunity afforded by the strategic partnership with the US and support of Trump.
It said the October 7, 2023, Hamas-led attack on Israel demonstrated that the concept of Jewish settlement blocs alongside the establishment of a Palestinian state poses an existential threat to Israel.
“The task must be completed, the existential threat removed from within, and another massacre in the heart of the country must be prevented,” the petition stated.
Most countries regard Jewish settlements in the West Bank, many of which cut off Palestinian communities from one another, as a violation of international law.
With each advance of Israeli settlements and roads, the West Bank becomes more fractured, further undermining prospects for a contiguous land on which Palestinians could build a sovereign state long envisaged in Middle East peacemaking.
Israel’s pro-settler politicians have been emboldened by the return to the White House of Trump, who has proposed Palestinians leave Gaza, a suggestion widely condemned across the Middle East and beyond.


Syria state media says talk of peace deal with Israel ‘premature’

Updated 02 July 2025
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Syria state media says talk of peace deal with Israel ‘premature’

  • “Statements concerning signing a peace agreement with the Israeli occupation at this time are considered premature,” state TV reported
  • “It is not possible to talk of the possibility of negotiations over a new agreement”

DAMASCUS: Syrian state media reported Wednesday that statements on signing a peace deal with Israel were “premature,” days after Israel said it was interested in striking a normalization agreement with Damascus.

“Statements concerning signing a peace agreement with the Israeli occupation at this time are considered premature,” state TV reported an unidentified official source as saying.

“It is not possible to talk of the possibility of negotiations over a new agreement unless the occupation fully adheres the 1974 disengagement agreement and withdraws from the areas it has penetrated,” it added.

On Monday, Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Saar said his country had an “interest in adding countries, Syria and Lebanon, our neighbors, to the circle of peace and normalization while safeguarding Israel’s essential and security interests.”

The statement came amid major shifts in the region’s power dynamics, including the fall of longtime Syrian ruler Bashar Assad in December and the weakening of his ally Lebanese armed group Hezbollah after its latest war with Israel.

Syria’s new Islamist authorities have confirmed they held indirect talks with Israel to reduce tensions.

Since Assad’s ouster, Israel has repeatedly bombed targets inside Syria while Israeli troops have entered the UN-patrolled buffer zone along the 1974 armistice line on the Golan Heights and carried out incursions deeper into southern Syria.

Interim President Ahmed Al-Sharaa has repeatedly said Damascus does not seek conflict with its neighbors, asking the international community to pressure Israel into stopping its attacks.

Syria has said that the goal of ongoing negotiations is the reimplementation of the 1974 armistice between the two countries.

Saar insisted that the Golan Heights, much of which Israel seized in 1967 and later annexed in a move not recognized by the United Nations, “will remain part of the State of Israel” under any future peace agreement.

Control of the strategic plateau has long been a source of tension between Israel and Syria, which are technically still at war.


Gulf diplomacy with Iran helped limit conflict with Israel, Middle East experts say

Updated 02 July 2025
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Gulf diplomacy with Iran helped limit conflict with Israel, Middle East experts say

  • Pursuit of pragmatic relations between GCC nations and Tehran prevented fighting from escalating ‘out of hand’
  • Trump-brokered peace agreement offers ‘opportunities’ for further steps toward regional security, according to academics specializing on the region

LONDON: Improved relations between Arab Gulf countries and Iran helped contain the recent conflict with Israel, Middle East experts said on Wednesday during a discussion about regional developments.

Israel attacked Iran on June 13 with airstrikes targeting its nuclear program and military sites. Iran retaliated during the 12-day conflict by launching salvos of missiles toward Israeli cities.

Many feared the war might escalate, dragging in other countries in the region, especially after the US joined the airstrikes on June 22 by dropping bombs on key Iranian nuclear sites.

While Iran did retaliate against the US by attacking Al-Udeid airbase in Qatar on June 23, President Donald Trump announced a ceasefire two days later, and Iran has refrained from attacking other US targets in the region.

When the war started, Gulf countries condemned Israel’s attacks on Iran and called for deescalation. There has been a shift in the region in recent years away from an adversarial relationship with Iran to one of more pragmatic relations, cemented by a Chinese-brokered agreement between Riyadh and Tehran in March 2023.

“That reintegration of Iran into the Gulf security complex has played a really prominent role in preventing this from getting out of hand,” Simon Mabon, a professor of international politics and director of the SEPAD peace and conflict research center at Lancaster University, said during a discussion about developments in the Middle East this year.

This approach showed Gulf states building a regional security architecture from the inside that is “inclusive,” he added. It is viewed as a more “pragmatic and more sustainable way of building a longer-term form of prosperity,” and the approach speaks to Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 reforms program and the economic pragmatism of Gulf states, he added during the online event organized by SEPAD and the Foreign Policy Centre in London.

Eyad Alrefai, a lecturer in political science at King Abdulaziz University in Jeddah and a SEPAD fellow, said the efforts to forge new relationships between Gulf countries and Iran meant that the nations had been able to “manage their differences diplomatically,” and this included economic issues.

There had been less Iranian interference in the domestic affairs of GCC countries, and also in the wider Arab region, he added. This included Iran’s decision not to get involved in Syria when President Bashar Assad, an Iranian ally, was removed from power by opposition fighters in December last year.

The West’s position on the Iran-Israel conflict, largely seen to be one of support of Israel, was symptomatic of the fact that those countries continue to adopt a “tactical” outlook toward the region rather than a strategic one, Alrefai said. He urged those countries to engage with the Middle East as a socioeconomic, sustainable project moving forward.

If the truce between Iran and Israel continues to hold, many see the end of the brief war as a potential opportunity for more stability in the region.

Lina Khatib, an associate fellow at Chatham House’s Middle East and North Africa Program, said there was “a real possibility for an integrated economic and security and political partnership” to emerge. She said a weakened Iran also opens up the chance to restart the Israeli-Palestinian peace process.

Trump said on Tuesday that Israel had agreed to the terms of a 60-day ceasefire in Gaza, where more than 57,000 Palestinians have been killed during a devastating military campaign launched by Israeli authorities in response to the Hamas-led attacks against Israel on Oct. 7, 2023, during which 1,200 people were killed and dozens taken hostage.

Khatib said a shift in domestic Israeli politics, with pressure from Trump, could reopen a pathway toward a long-term agreement between Israel and Palestine. This would also lead to further normalization of relations between Israel and Arab countries, she added.

“This will in turn encourage the flow of funding to places like Lebanon and Syria for reconstruction, which could only be good news for these countries economically, but also will help with stability,” Khatib said.

“Having a stable region is very much in the interest of countries in the Gulf as well.”

Clive Jones, a professor of regional security and director of the Institute for Middle Eastern and Islamic Studies at Durham University, said Israel had scored a huge win against Iran but ran the risk of failing to convert it into a diplomatic opportunity.

“The challenge for Israel now is how you actually cash in those military gains for diplomatic advantage,” he said.

“I think Israel is actually missing a huge opportunity, for example by not engaging more proactively with the new regime in Syria.”

He said Israel’s reliance on its military superiority would not be enough to secure long-term security.