Hezbollah counts the cost of prolonged conflict with Israel in south Lebanon

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An undeclared war since last October has produced an unexpected psychological, social, and military reality in southern Lebanon, which could cost Hezbollah dearly if the conflict continues or escalates. (AFP)
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Updated 08 May 2024
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Hezbollah counts the cost of prolonged conflict with Israel in south Lebanon

  • Since hostilities began after Oct. 7, scores of Hezbollah fighters and commanders have been killed in Israeli strikes
  • Observers say Hezbollah could lose support in south Lebanon over failure to protect and compensate civilians

BEIRUT: Israel claims its forces have eliminated half of Hezbollah’s commanders in southern Lebanon in a series of targeted strikes since the two sides began trading fire in the wake of the Oct. 7 Hamas-led attack on southern Israel.

Hezbollah has acknowledged it is “facing a war led by artificial intelligence,” with its secretary-general, Hassan Nasrallah, urging members near the border to avoid using cell phones and the internet, as these devices could be used to track targets.

“The Israelis take advantage of all modern technologies, social networking sites, and information warfare, carrying out new types of operations through systematic destruction and access to cadres and fighters who are influential to (Hezbollah’s) resistance,” Qassem Kassir, a political writer who specializes in Islamic movements, told Arab News.




An Israeli Air Force helicopter hovers over the border area with south Lebanon in northern Israel on February 28, 2024, amid ongoing cross-border tensions with Hezbollah. (AFP File Photo)

While Hezbollah has no doubt lost a significant number of fighters and commanders since the outbreak of hostilities, it also has what analysts have called “a deep bench,” capable of fighting a full-scale war.

Given Hezbollah’s demographic advantage and its formidable local support base, analysts express skepticism about whether Israel can achieve its goal of pushing Hezbollah north of the Litani River in Lebanon.

“Today, Hezbollah is fighting a new battle, whether via direct confrontations, which is different from their traditional hit-and-run or guerrilla warfare tactics, or in terms of the quality of weapons and various capabilities that develop day after day,” said Kassir.

Nevertheless, Hezbollah’s ongoing war of attrition with Israel has produced an unexpected psychological, social, and military reality in southern Lebanon, which could cost it dearly if the conflict continues or escalates.

The majority of Lebanese deaths have been recorded on the southern front, with more than 438 noted by Lebanon’s Disaster Risk Management Unit. Most of these deaths are among military-aged males — fighters, rather than civilians.

According to a tally taken by the Associated Press, Israeli strikes have killed more than 350 people in Lebanon, most of them fighters with Hezbollah and allied groups, but also including more than 50 civilians.




village of Houla on March 6, 2024. The trio were killed a day earlier in Israeli bombardment. (AFP)

Meanwhile, strikes by Hezbollah have killed at least 10 civilians and 12 soldiers in Israel, and have forced authorities to evacuate civilians away from the border, fearing a possible raid akin to Oct. 7.

Despite its losses, Hezbollah says it has used only a fraction of its capabilities against Israel, with the bulk of its arsenal of drones, missiles, and other advanced weapons supplied by Iran held in reserve should the conflict escalate.

Kassir believes recent Israeli wins have barely made a dent in Hezbollah’s combat machinery, and that the militia has sufficient means and manpower to continue fighting for the long haul.

“The Israeli talk about Hezbollah’s defeat is a kind of psychological warfare,” he said. “Hezbollah can continue fighting. It has so far used only 10 percent of its capabilities and is ready for any battle.




Lebanese Hezbollah fighters stand near multiple rocket launchers during a press tour in the southern Lebanese village of Aaramta on May 21, 2023. (AFP)

While Hezbollah may be resilient enough to withstand current Israeli attacks, that says nothing of the communities along Lebanon’s southern border.

The daily exchange of fire has maimed and killed scores of civilians and caused significant damage to homes, businesses, farmland, and forests. Tens of thousands of residents have fled their towns and villages for the relative safety of the north.

Some analysts and observers believe support for Hezbollah could quickly wane if the civilian population continues to bear the brunt of these armed exchanges, or if the recent spate of setbacks undermines public confidence.

“There is no doubt that there has been a radical change in the perception of Hezbollah’s circumstances towards the power and deterrence that the party used to boast about,” Ali Al-Amin, editor of the Lebanese news site Janoubia, told Arab News




Mourners and family members attend the funeral of May Ammar and her son Ahmad Hnaiki on May 6, 2024, killed the previous day in an Israeli air strike on the southern Lebanese border village of Meis al-Jabal. The daily exchange of fire between Israel and Hezbollah has maimed and killed scores of civilians and caused significant damage to homes, businesses, farmland, and forests. (AFP)

Indeed, as the confidence the group once instilled in the Lebanese population after the 2006 war with Israel begins to dissipate, Al-Amin says Hezbollah may be losing its wider backing.

In particular, residents and business owners in the border regions, who previously built mansions and villas and invested heavily in tourism projects there, are now doubting Hezbollah’s promise to protect them and their assets.

“Hezbollah has not been able to protect this environment, and there is a rift between this environment and what is happening on the border,” said Al-Amin.

“In the villages where the displaced have taken refuge, there are questions such as: ‘Why did Israel manage to catch so many Hezbollah members and not the same in the Gaza Strip? Why were our homes destroyed and on the other side, the settlers’ homes are still standing and were not targeted by Hezbollah’s weapons, as is the case in the Lebanese Kafr Kila? Why does the enemy have so much accurate information about Hezbollah cadres and their movements and thus targets them?’”




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Mindful of the reputational risks, Hezbollah has tried to stage-manage its image and conceal any perceived blunders.

“In the July 2006 war, there was a kind of contract between Nasrallah and his supporters which translated into blind trust in what he says,” said Al-Amin. “But, the scenes of destruction in the frontline villages are not allowed to be published in the media.

“This is because it would give the impression of an Israeli victory and that the rockets fired from Lebanon are for reconnaissance and not to harm, unlike Israel’s scorched-earth tactics for southern Lebanon.”  

Nonetheless, the militia’s failings have not gone unnoticed.

“Hezbollah is facing a crisis due to the length of the conflict and its losses, and because of its security weaknesses, which enabled Israel to assassinate its field commanders and fight a war of attrition,” Harith Suleiman, an academic and political writer, told Arab News.




Hezbollah protest in Beirut on October 13, 2023, after the assassination of Hezbollah top commander Imad Mughnieh by Israeli agents. (AFP)

“The Israeli side did not incur high political, human and military costs.”

Thus far, there has been little in the way of international condemnation concerning Israeli strikes on southern Lebanon. Western diplomatic efforts have instead focused on Hezbollah’s demilitarization and demands for its separation from the conflict in Gaza.

Western diplomats, primarily led by France, have brought forward a series of proposals for a cessation of hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah.

Most of these hinge on Hezbollah moving its forces several kilometers from the border, a beefed-up Lebanese Army presence, and negotiations for Israeli forces to withdraw from disputed points along the border.

The eventual goal is the full implementation of UN Security Council Resolution 1701 that brought an end to the month-long war between Israel and Hezbollah in 2006 and that stipulated the full withdrawal of Israeli forces from Lebanon, their replacement by Lebanese and UNIFIL forces, and the disarmament of Hezbollah.




Map of the border area between Lebanon and Israel. (AFP)

Hezbollah has signaled its willingness to entertain the proposals but has said there will be no deal in Lebanon before a ceasefire in Gaza. Israeli officials, meanwhile, have said a Gaza ceasefire does not automatically mean it will halt its strikes in Lebanon, even if Hezbollah does so.

“Hezbollah will accept the offered option to stop the confrontations in southern Lebanon and implement Resolution 1701,” said Suleiman.

However, Hezbollah’s acceptance of this agreement is contingent upon Israel’s acceptance of Egyptian-mediated deals with Israel, Suleiman added.

While life elsewhere in Lebanon continues as normal despite the armed exchanges in the south, discussions in the districts of Bint Jbeil, Tyre, and Nabatieh — just 5 km north of the border — are dominated by the question of who will compensate communities for their damaged homes, farms and businesses.




Smoke billows from the site of an Israeli airstrike on the southern Lebanese village of Khiam near the border on May 8, 2024, amid ongoing cross-border tensions between Israel and Hezbollah. Hezbollah has reportedly offered compensation for families whose houses had been destroyed in the conflict. (AFP)

This uncertainty over compensation and how long the conflict will last has the potential to fuel resentment.

“Hezbollah is currently offering a displaced person whose house was destroyed $40,000, or he must wait for the end of the war for Hezbollah to rebuild his house,” said Al-Amin.

There is a lack of clarity, however, as to how equally this compensation will be distributed.

“Does Hezbollah, for example, reconstruct mansions, including what are considered architectural masterpieces that cost hundreds of thousands of dollars, at a different cost than ordinary houses destroyed by the bombing?” said Al-Amin.

“Does the average citizen accept this unfairness in compensation? This is one of the issues that awaits Hezbollah and causes a rift between it and its supporters.”

 


Macron, on Egypt visit, to go near Gaza to show support for ceasefire

Updated 6 sec ago
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Macron, on Egypt visit, to go near Gaza to show support for ceasefire

  • A draft accord on treating Palestinian wounded brought out of Gaza is to be signed during the visit

PARIS: French President Emmanuel Macron will go to an Egyptian port near the Gaza Strip next week to highlight concerns over the conflict in the Palestinian territory, his office said Thursday.
Macron will go to Arish, 50 kilometers (30 miles) from Gaza, next Tuesday during a visit to Egypt, officials said.
Macron will meet humanitarian and security workers next Tuesday to stress his “constant mobilization in favor of a ceasefire,” his office said in a statement.
Arish is a transit point for international aid intended for Gaza.
But food and other supplies have not been able to use the nearby Rafah crossing from Egypt into Gaza since a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas was suspended last month.
Macron is to go to Egypt on Sunday and on Monday will meet the country’s President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi.
Egypt has been a mediator in the Israel-Hamas conflict since the Ocxtober 7, 2023 Hamas attacks and Macron will stress “the urgency” of securing a new ceasefire so that Gaza’s population is no longer has to bear a “humanitarian catastrophe,” Israeli strikes are ended and Israeli hostages in Gaza are freed, the French leader’s office said.
A draft accord on treating Palestinian wounded brought out of Gaza is to be signed during the visit.
 

 


Deadly fire on Gaza ambulances possible Israeli ‘war crimes’: UN official

Updated 15 min 36 sec ago
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Deadly fire on Gaza ambulances possible Israeli ‘war crimes’: UN official

  • Turk called for an “independent, prompt and thorough investigation” into the March 23 incident that Israeli officials have claimed was an attack on “terrorists”

UNITED NATIONS, United States: The death of 15 medics and humanitarian workers in Gaza after shots were fired at their ambulances raises further concerns of “war crimes by the Israeli army,” the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights said on Thursday.
“I am appalled by the recent killings of 15 medical personnel and humanitarian aid workers, which raise further concerns over the commission of war crimes by the Israeli military,” said Volker Turk, before the UN Security Council.
Turk called for an “independent, prompt and thorough investigation” into the March 23 incident that Israeli officials have claimed was an attack on “terrorists.”
The bodies of 15 rescuers and humanitarian workers, including eight from the Palestinian Red Crescent and one from the UN, were found near Rafah in what the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) called a “mass grave.”
OCHA had said Tuesday that the first team was killed by Israeli forces on March 23, and that other emergency and aid teams were struck one after another for several hours as they searched for their missing colleagues.
This is “one of the darkest moments in this conflict that has shaken our shared humanity to its core,” said the president of the Palestinian Red Crescent Society Younes Al-Khatib before the UN Security Council on Thursday.
“The souls of Mostafa, Ezzedine, Saleh, Riffat, Mohammad Bahloul, Mohammed Al-heila, Ashraf and Raed are asking for justice. Can you hear them?” he asked, demanding to know the fate of a 16th team member still missing.
“It’s worth noting, also, that during the communication with the team, the dispatch could hear a conversation in Hebrew between the Israeli forces and the team, meaning some were alive, still alive, when they were under the control of the Israeli forces,” Al-Khatib said.
The Israeli army has indicated it is investigating the “incident of March 23, 2025,” while claiming its soldiers had fired at “terrorists.”
Turk also condemned Israel for blocking the entry of humanitarian aid for a month and resuming its military operations, saying “the blockade and siege of Gaza,” and the subsequent suffering of civilians “constitutes a form of collective punishment.”
It “may also amount to the use of starvation as a method of war,” he said.
Turk expressed alarm over “inflammatory statements by senior Israeli officials about seizing, dividing, and controlling the territory of the Gaza Strip.”
“All of this raises serious concerns about international crimes being committed and contradicts the fundamental principle of international law regarding acquisition of territory by force.”
The war was triggered by Hamas’ attack on Israel on October 7, 2023.


Hundreds of thousands flee as Israel seizes Rafah in new Gaza ‘security zone’

Updated 03 April 2025
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Hundreds of thousands flee as Israel seizes Rafah in new Gaza ‘security zone’

  • Airstrike kills at least 27 Palestinians, including women and children, inside a school building

GAZA: Hundreds of thousands of fleeing Gazans sought shelter on Thursday in one of the biggest mass displacements of the war, as Israeli forces advanced into the ruins of the city of Rafah, part of a newly announced “security zone” they intend to seize.

A day after declaring their intention to capture large swaths of the crowded enclave, Israeli forces pushed into the city on Gaza’s southern edge, which had served as a last refuge for people fleeing other areas for much of the war.
Gaza’s Health Ministry reported at least 97 people killed in Israeli strikes in the past 24 hours, including at least 20 killed in an airstrike around dawn in Shejaia, a suburb of Gaza City in the north.

FASTFACT

The assault to capture Rafah is a significant escalation in the war, which Israel restarted last month after effectively abandoning a ceasefire in place since January.

Later on Thursday, an Israeli airstrike killed at least 27 Palestinians, including women and children, inside a school building that served as a shelter for displaced families in Gaza City, local health authorities said.
The Israeli military claimed the attack hit key Palestinian “terrorists.”
Medics said three missiles slammed into the Dar Al-Arqam school building in Tuffah neighborhood in Gaza City, and the Israeli military said it struck a command center that militants had used to plan and execute attacks against Israeli civilians and army troops.
Rafah “is gone, it is being wiped out,” a father of seven among the hundreds of thousands who had fled from Rafah to neighboring Khan Younis, said via a chat app.
“They are knocking down what is left standing of houses and property,” said the man.
The assault to capture Rafah is a significant escalation in the war, which Israel restarted last month after effectively abandoning a ceasefire in place since January.
In Shejaia in the north, one of the districts where Israel has ordered the population to leave, hundreds of residents streamed out on Thursday, some carrying their belongings as they walked, others on donkey carts and bikes or in vans.
“I want to die. Let them kill us and free us from this life. We’re not living, we’re dead,” said Umm Aaed Bardaa.
In Khan Younis, where a strike killed several people, Adel Abu Fakher was checking the damage to his tent: “There’s nothing left for us. We’re being killed while asleep,” he said.
Israel has not spelled out its long-term aims for the security zone its troops are now seizing.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said troops were taking an area he called the “Morag Axis,” a reference to an abandoned former Israeli settlement between Rafah and Khan Younis.
Gazans who had returned to homes in the ruins during the ceasefire have now been ordered to flee communities on the northern and southern edges of the strip.
They fear Israel intends to depopulate those areas indefinitely, leaving many hundreds of thousands of people permanently homeless while Israel seizes some of Gaza’s last agricultural land and critical water infrastructure.
Since the first phase of the ceasefire expired at the start of March with no agreement to prolong it, Israel has imposed a total blockade on all goods for Gaza’s 2.3 million residents, recreating what international organizations call a humanitarian catastrophe.
Israel’s military said on Thursday it was investigating the deaths of 15 Palestinian aid workers found buried in a shallow grave in March near Red Crescent vehicles, an incident that caused global alarm.
The military said troops fired on the cars, believing they carried fighters.
Israel’s stated goal since the start of the war has been the destruction of the Hamas militant group, which ran Gaza for nearly two decades.
But with no effort made to establish an alternative administration, Hamas returned to control during the ceasefire.
Fighters still hold 59 dead and living hostages Israel says must be handed over to extend the truce temporarily; Hamas says it will free them only under a deal that permanently ends the war.
Israeli leaders say they have been encouraged by signs of protest in Gaza against Hamas, with hundreds of people demonstrating in north Gaza’s Beit Lahiya on Wednesday. Hamas calls the protesters collaborators and says Israel is behind them.
The war began with an attack on Israeli communities on Oct. 7, 2023 with gunmen taking more than 250 hostages, according to Israeli tallies.
Israel’s campaign has so far killed more than 50,000 Palestinians, Gaza health authorities say.
Rafah residents said most of the local population had followed Israel’s order to leave as Israeli strikes toppled buildings there.
However, a strike on the main road between Khan Younis and Rafah stopped most movement between the cities.
The movement of people and traffic along the western coastal road near Morag was also limited by bombardment.
“Others stayed because they don’t know where to go, or got fed up of being displaced several times. We are afraid they might be killed or at best detained,” said Basem, a resident of Rafah who declined to give a second name.

 


Lebanese leaders reach consensus on border demarcation to present to US envoy

Updated 03 April 2025
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Lebanese leaders reach consensus on border demarcation to present to US envoy

  • President Aoun tells top military officers: Lebanon’s interests are above everything else
  • Joseph Aoun: It is the state that protects Lebanon, not its sects

BEIRUT: Lebanese leaders have reached a unified position on border demarcation to present to Morgan Ortagus, the US envoy, who is scheduled to arrive in Beirut before the end of the week.

President Joseph Aoun, Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, and Prime Minister Nawaf Salam, agreed that there “will be no negotiations with the Israeli side regarding (a) prisoner swap or withdrawal from the Lebanese hills still occupied by the Israeli Army,” a source in the government told Arab News on Thursday.

“However, Lebanon is open to discussing disputed land border points,” the source added.

“Regardless of the US envoy’s proposals, the Lebanese stance remains unchanged,” said the source, who clarified that the Lebanese Army “is fulfilling its duties by being deployed south of the Litani River and confiscating weapons in the border area, as acknowledged by the US side overseeing the ceasefire monitoring committee and the UNIFIL forces.”

The source said that the military had made significant progress on the issue, destroying weapons and ammunition seized from Hezbollah sites.

Aoun told top security officials on Thursday that Lebanon’s interests comes above anything else.

He was speaking during a visit to the leadership of the Internal Security Forces and the General Security Directorate.

“We have a great opportunity to seize at all levels, and we must show the people that we are mature enough to build the state and that we will build it,” he said.

The president called on security bodies to “remain unaffiliated with anyone, serve only Lebanon’s interests, and enforce the law,” noting that “the world is ready to help us, but we must first help ourselves.”

Aoun stated: “Lebanon’s interest comes above anything else. It is the state that protects Lebanon, not its sects. Parties and sects prioritize their interests, whereas your duty is to serve Lebanon.

“You must reject any demands or interference that might harm the nation’s interests and prompt people to respect the law, keeping in mind that no request outside the law will be tolerated.”

Also on Thursday, Maronite Patriarch Bechara Al-Rahi, the highest Maronite religious authority in Lebanon, said the time “has come to unify weapons in Lebanon, as stipulated in the Taif Agreement.”

He also told the Lebanese Editors Syndicate that the military “needs strengthening and support from other nations, but the solution now is diplomatic, as we are incapable of engaging in war, and no one can confront Israel.

“What has the resistance achieved with all its weapons against the Israeli war machine,” he asked, adding “now is not the time for normalization with Israel, as there are other issues that must be addressed first, such as border demarcation and disarmament.”

Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz said Israel would not withdraw from the five positions it controls in Lebanon.

He was speaking during a visit to an Israeli military site in southern Lebanon — one of the five hills still occupied since the ceasefire declaration in November.

At the site, which is near the Israeli settlement of Margaliot, Katz stated Israel’s presence at the five locations will be determined not by time but by the situation on the ground.

“Only if Hezbollah disarms and withdraws from the border can we discuss the withdrawal of the Israeli Army from these positions, and this matter is being coordinated with the Americans,” he said.

Katz anticipated “an increase in activity among Palestinian organizations, including Hamas, in Lebanon and Syria.”

He stated: “We are working to prevent the arming of Hezbollah and Palestinian organizations. The challenge will begin and intensify.”

Katz claimed that Hezbollah “is not a protector of Lebanon.”

He added: “The Iranians now realize that it is no longer capable of defending them.”

Elsewhere, an Israeli drone targeted a vehicle on the main road between Bint Jbeil and Yaroun in the border area.

The drone struck the vehicle from behind, resulting in two injuries, the Lebanese Ministry of Health said.

The Israeli military conducted airstrikes around Naqoura and one strike in the town’s center, targeting pre-fabricated homes as replacements for the destroyed houses and facilities.

These pre-fabricated facilities were being used to meet citizens’ needs, serving as a substitute for the municipal building, destroyed by Israel following the ceasefire, said Naqoura Mayor Abbas Awada.

He highlighted that recent aggression occurring in proximity to UNIFIL headquarters falls “under the jurisdiction of the five-member ceasefire monitoring committee and UNIFIL forces.”

Hezbollah’s Islamic Health Authority reported that Israeli strikes destroyed a “newly established civil defense center and damaged ambulances and firefighting vehicles.”

Meanwhile, the Lebanese Armed Forces have taken proactive measures, with military units removing “engineering obstacles placed by Israeli forces inside Lebanese territory” near Al-Labouna in the Tyre region.

The military also closed an unauthorized dirt road created by Israeli units in the same area.

In an official statement, the Lebanese Army Command affirmed its ongoing commitment to “addressing Israeli violations through close coordination with the ceasefire monitoring mechanism and UNIFIL.”

The Army Command condemned Israel’s “persistent violations of Lebanese sovereignty and targeting of civilians across multiple regions.”

In another development, UNIFIL Western Sector Commander Gen. Nicola Mandolisi conducted his first meeting with Khirbet Selem Mayor Mohammed Rahhal.

Their joint statement highlighted “UNIFIL’s commitment to facilitating the safe return of displaced residents and supporting Lebanese military operations through strategic partnerships with the Fifth Brigade and the Second and Fifth Rapid Intervention Regiments, key components in regional stabilization efforts.”


South Sudan clashes kill 30: local official

Updated 03 April 2025
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South Sudan clashes kill 30: local official

  • The attack in northern Ruweng Administrative Area began earlier in the week
  • Local media reported that some of those killed were members of the armed groups

JUBA: At least 30 people were killed when a northern South Sudanese town was briefly overrun by an armed youth group, a local official said Thursday, following a cattle raid.
Clashes involving pastoralists and settled farming communities are common in the world’s youngest country, but this incident comes as tensions rise over South Sudan’s fragile political situation.
The attack in northern Ruweng Administrative Area began earlier in the week when a group of armed youth stole lambs before they were scared off by security forces, said Simon Chol Mialith, the local Minister of Information.
The following day, he told AFP, the group returned in greater numbers and attacked Abiemnom, and although “the youth and the security forces tried to defend the town, they were overrun by the Mayom armed youth.”
On Wednesday the South Sudan People’s Defense Force (SSPDF) drove the group from the settlement, Mialith said, where calm has now been restored.
“The number has risen to 30 people confirmed dead and over 40 persons wounded,” he said, without giving further details.
Local media reported that some of those killed were members of the armed groups, but AFP was unable to confirm this.
The incident comes as forces allied to President Salva Kiir and First Vice President Riek Machar clash across the country, sparking regional concern and threatening a fragile peace deal in 2018 that ended a five-year civil war.
South Sudan has been bedevilled by instability and insecurity since independence in 2011, and despite its natural oil resources remains deeply impoverished.