Hezbollah counts the cost of prolonged conflict with Israel in south Lebanon

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An undeclared war since last October has produced an unexpected psychological, social, and military reality in southern Lebanon, which could cost Hezbollah dearly if the conflict continues or escalates. (AFP)
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Updated 08 May 2024
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Hezbollah counts the cost of prolonged conflict with Israel in south Lebanon

  • Since hostilities began after Oct. 7, scores of Hezbollah fighters and commanders have been killed in Israeli strikes
  • Observers say Hezbollah could lose support in south Lebanon over failure to protect and compensate civilians

BEIRUT: Israel claims its forces have eliminated half of Hezbollah’s commanders in southern Lebanon in a series of targeted strikes since the two sides began trading fire in the wake of the Oct. 7 Hamas-led attack on southern Israel.

Hezbollah has acknowledged it is “facing a war led by artificial intelligence,” with its secretary-general, Hassan Nasrallah, urging members near the border to avoid using cell phones and the internet, as these devices could be used to track targets.

“The Israelis take advantage of all modern technologies, social networking sites, and information warfare, carrying out new types of operations through systematic destruction and access to cadres and fighters who are influential to (Hezbollah’s) resistance,” Qassem Kassir, a political writer who specializes in Islamic movements, told Arab News.




An Israeli Air Force helicopter hovers over the border area with south Lebanon in northern Israel on February 28, 2024, amid ongoing cross-border tensions with Hezbollah. (AFP File Photo)

While Hezbollah has no doubt lost a significant number of fighters and commanders since the outbreak of hostilities, it also has what analysts have called “a deep bench,” capable of fighting a full-scale war.

Given Hezbollah’s demographic advantage and its formidable local support base, analysts express skepticism about whether Israel can achieve its goal of pushing Hezbollah north of the Litani River in Lebanon.

“Today, Hezbollah is fighting a new battle, whether via direct confrontations, which is different from their traditional hit-and-run or guerrilla warfare tactics, or in terms of the quality of weapons and various capabilities that develop day after day,” said Kassir.

Nevertheless, Hezbollah’s ongoing war of attrition with Israel has produced an unexpected psychological, social, and military reality in southern Lebanon, which could cost it dearly if the conflict continues or escalates.

The majority of Lebanese deaths have been recorded on the southern front, with more than 438 noted by Lebanon’s Disaster Risk Management Unit. Most of these deaths are among military-aged males — fighters, rather than civilians.

According to a tally taken by the Associated Press, Israeli strikes have killed more than 350 people in Lebanon, most of them fighters with Hezbollah and allied groups, but also including more than 50 civilians.




village of Houla on March 6, 2024. The trio were killed a day earlier in Israeli bombardment. (AFP)

Meanwhile, strikes by Hezbollah have killed at least 10 civilians and 12 soldiers in Israel, and have forced authorities to evacuate civilians away from the border, fearing a possible raid akin to Oct. 7.

Despite its losses, Hezbollah says it has used only a fraction of its capabilities against Israel, with the bulk of its arsenal of drones, missiles, and other advanced weapons supplied by Iran held in reserve should the conflict escalate.

Kassir believes recent Israeli wins have barely made a dent in Hezbollah’s combat machinery, and that the militia has sufficient means and manpower to continue fighting for the long haul.

“The Israeli talk about Hezbollah’s defeat is a kind of psychological warfare,” he said. “Hezbollah can continue fighting. It has so far used only 10 percent of its capabilities and is ready for any battle.




Lebanese Hezbollah fighters stand near multiple rocket launchers during a press tour in the southern Lebanese village of Aaramta on May 21, 2023. (AFP)

While Hezbollah may be resilient enough to withstand current Israeli attacks, that says nothing of the communities along Lebanon’s southern border.

The daily exchange of fire has maimed and killed scores of civilians and caused significant damage to homes, businesses, farmland, and forests. Tens of thousands of residents have fled their towns and villages for the relative safety of the north.

Some analysts and observers believe support for Hezbollah could quickly wane if the civilian population continues to bear the brunt of these armed exchanges, or if the recent spate of setbacks undermines public confidence.

“There is no doubt that there has been a radical change in the perception of Hezbollah’s circumstances towards the power and deterrence that the party used to boast about,” Ali Al-Amin, editor of the Lebanese news site Janoubia, told Arab News




Mourners and family members attend the funeral of May Ammar and her son Ahmad Hnaiki on May 6, 2024, killed the previous day in an Israeli air strike on the southern Lebanese border village of Meis al-Jabal. The daily exchange of fire between Israel and Hezbollah has maimed and killed scores of civilians and caused significant damage to homes, businesses, farmland, and forests. (AFP)

Indeed, as the confidence the group once instilled in the Lebanese population after the 2006 war with Israel begins to dissipate, Al-Amin says Hezbollah may be losing its wider backing.

In particular, residents and business owners in the border regions, who previously built mansions and villas and invested heavily in tourism projects there, are now doubting Hezbollah’s promise to protect them and their assets.

“Hezbollah has not been able to protect this environment, and there is a rift between this environment and what is happening on the border,” said Al-Amin.

“In the villages where the displaced have taken refuge, there are questions such as: ‘Why did Israel manage to catch so many Hezbollah members and not the same in the Gaza Strip? Why were our homes destroyed and on the other side, the settlers’ homes are still standing and were not targeted by Hezbollah’s weapons, as is the case in the Lebanese Kafr Kila? Why does the enemy have so much accurate information about Hezbollah cadres and their movements and thus targets them?’”




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Mindful of the reputational risks, Hezbollah has tried to stage-manage its image and conceal any perceived blunders.

“In the July 2006 war, there was a kind of contract between Nasrallah and his supporters which translated into blind trust in what he says,” said Al-Amin. “But, the scenes of destruction in the frontline villages are not allowed to be published in the media.

“This is because it would give the impression of an Israeli victory and that the rockets fired from Lebanon are for reconnaissance and not to harm, unlike Israel’s scorched-earth tactics for southern Lebanon.”  

Nonetheless, the militia’s failings have not gone unnoticed.

“Hezbollah is facing a crisis due to the length of the conflict and its losses, and because of its security weaknesses, which enabled Israel to assassinate its field commanders and fight a war of attrition,” Harith Suleiman, an academic and political writer, told Arab News.




Hezbollah protest in Beirut on October 13, 2023, after the assassination of Hezbollah top commander Imad Mughnieh by Israeli agents. (AFP)

“The Israeli side did not incur high political, human and military costs.”

Thus far, there has been little in the way of international condemnation concerning Israeli strikes on southern Lebanon. Western diplomatic efforts have instead focused on Hezbollah’s demilitarization and demands for its separation from the conflict in Gaza.

Western diplomats, primarily led by France, have brought forward a series of proposals for a cessation of hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah.

Most of these hinge on Hezbollah moving its forces several kilometers from the border, a beefed-up Lebanese Army presence, and negotiations for Israeli forces to withdraw from disputed points along the border.

The eventual goal is the full implementation of UN Security Council Resolution 1701 that brought an end to the month-long war between Israel and Hezbollah in 2006 and that stipulated the full withdrawal of Israeli forces from Lebanon, their replacement by Lebanese and UNIFIL forces, and the disarmament of Hezbollah.




Map of the border area between Lebanon and Israel. (AFP)

Hezbollah has signaled its willingness to entertain the proposals but has said there will be no deal in Lebanon before a ceasefire in Gaza. Israeli officials, meanwhile, have said a Gaza ceasefire does not automatically mean it will halt its strikes in Lebanon, even if Hezbollah does so.

“Hezbollah will accept the offered option to stop the confrontations in southern Lebanon and implement Resolution 1701,” said Suleiman.

However, Hezbollah’s acceptance of this agreement is contingent upon Israel’s acceptance of Egyptian-mediated deals with Israel, Suleiman added.

While life elsewhere in Lebanon continues as normal despite the armed exchanges in the south, discussions in the districts of Bint Jbeil, Tyre, and Nabatieh — just 5 km north of the border — are dominated by the question of who will compensate communities for their damaged homes, farms and businesses.




Smoke billows from the site of an Israeli airstrike on the southern Lebanese village of Khiam near the border on May 8, 2024, amid ongoing cross-border tensions between Israel and Hezbollah. Hezbollah has reportedly offered compensation for families whose houses had been destroyed in the conflict. (AFP)

This uncertainty over compensation and how long the conflict will last has the potential to fuel resentment.

“Hezbollah is currently offering a displaced person whose house was destroyed $40,000, or he must wait for the end of the war for Hezbollah to rebuild his house,” said Al-Amin.

There is a lack of clarity, however, as to how equally this compensation will be distributed.

“Does Hezbollah, for example, reconstruct mansions, including what are considered architectural masterpieces that cost hundreds of thousands of dollars, at a different cost than ordinary houses destroyed by the bombing?” said Al-Amin.

“Does the average citizen accept this unfairness in compensation? This is one of the issues that awaits Hezbollah and causes a rift between it and its supporters.”

 


More Sudanese refugees fleeing as far as Europe, UN refugee agency says

Updated 6 sec ago
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More Sudanese refugees fleeing as far as Europe, UN refugee agency says

  • Olga Sarrado, UN refugee agency spokesperson, told a press briefing in Geneva that some 484 Sudanese had arrived in Europe in January and February, up 38 percent from the same period last year
GENEVA: Over a thousand Sudanese refugees have reached or attempted to reach Europe in early 2025, the United Nations’ refugee agency said on Friday, citing growing desperation in part due to reduced aid in the region.
Some 12 million people have been displaced by the two-year conflict between the Sudanese army and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces that has fueled what UN officials call the world’s most devastating aid crisis.
While some have recently returned home to Khartoum, millions of others in neighboring countries like Egypt and Chad face tough choices as services for refugees are being cut, including by the United States as part of an aid review.
Olga Sarrado, UN refugee agency spokesperson, told a press briefing in Geneva that some 484 Sudanese had arrived in Europe in January and February, up 38 percent from the same period last year.
Around 937 others were rescued or intercepted at sea and returned to Libya — more than double last year’s figures for the same period, she added.
“As humanitarian aid crumbles and if the war does not abate, many more will have little choice than to join them,” she said.
Migrant deaths hit a record last year, the UN migration agency said, with many perishing on the Mediterranean crossing which is one of the world’s most dangerous.

UN: 36 Israeli strikes in Gaza killed ‘only women and children’

Updated 56 min 58 sec ago
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UN: 36 Israeli strikes in Gaza killed ‘only women and children’

  • UN rights office spokesperson warns the military strikes across Gaza were ‘leaving nowhere safe’
  • Israel has said its troops are seizing ‘large areas’ in Gaza and incorporating them into buffer zones cleared of their inhabitants

GENEVA: The United Nations on Friday said it analysis of 36 Israeli strikes in Gaza showed only women and children were killed and decried the human cost of the war.

The UN rights office also warned that expanding Israeli evacuation orders were resulting in the “forcible transfer” of people into ever-shrinking spaces in the war-ravaged Palestinian territory.

Spokeswoman Ravina Shamdasani warned the military strikes across Gaza were “leaving nowhere safe.”

“Between 18 March and 9 April 2025, there were some 224 incidents of Israeli strikes on residential buildings and tents for internally displaced people,” she told reporters in Geneva.

“In some 36 strikes about which the UN Human Rights Office corroborated information, the fatalities recorded so far were only women and children,” she said.

“Overall, a large percentage of fatalities are children and women, according to information recorded by our Office,” she added.

Shamdasani cited an April 6 strike on a residential building of the Abu Issa family in Deir al Balah, which reportedly killed one girl, four women, and one four-year-old boy.

She highlighted that even the areas where Palestinians were being instructed to go in the expanding number of Israeli “evacuation orders” were also being subjected to attacks.

“Despite Israeli military orders instructing civilians to relocate to the Al Mawasi area of Khan Younis, strikes continued on tents in that area housing displaced people, with at least 23 such incidents recorded by the Office since 18 March,” she said.

Shamdasani referred to a March 31 order by the Israeli military covering all of Rafah, the southernmost governorate in Gaza, followed by a large-scale ground operation.

Israel has said its troops are seizing “large areas” in Gaza and incorporating them into buffer zones cleared of their inhabitants.

“Large areas are being seized and added to Israel’s security zones, leaving Gaza smaller and more isolated,” Israel’s Defense Minister Israel Katz said Wednesday.

“Let us be clear, these so-called evacuation orders are actually displacement orders, leading to displacement of the population of Gaza into ever shrinking spaces,” Shamdasani said.

“The permanently displacing the civilian population within occupied territories amounts to forcible transfer, which is a grave breach of the Fourth Geneva Convention, and it is a crime against humanity.”


WHO: Medicine critically low due to Gaza aid block

Updated 11 April 2025
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WHO: Medicine critically low due to Gaza aid block

  • Lack of medicine making it hard to keep hospitals even partially operational

GENEVA: Medicine stocks are critically low due to the aid block in Gaza, making it hard to keep hospitals even partially operational, the World Health Organization said on Friday.
“We are critically low in our three warehouses, on antibiotics, IV fluids and blood bags,” WHO official Rik Peeperkorn told reporters in Geneva via video link from Jerusalem.


Yemen ‘not a battleground for settling scores,’ says top government official

Updated 11 April 2025
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Yemen ‘not a battleground for settling scores,’ says top government official

  • Brig. Gen. Tariq Mohammed Abdullah Saleh calls for stronger support for Yemeni forces on the ground to restore balance

DUBAI: Yemen is “not a battleground for settling scores, nor part of any external compromises,” a top government official told Asharq Al-Awsat in an exclusive interview.

Brig. Gen. Tariq Mohammed Abdullah Saleh, a member of Yemen’s Presidential Leadership Council with vice-presidential rank, further emphasized that diminishing the country to a pawn between powerful nations engaged in political play undermines its sovereignty and regional security.

“The world would be making a mistake by accepting Yemen as a bargaining chip in Iranian negotiations,” said Saleh, who also heads the Political Bureau of the National Resistance. He also emphasized Yemen’s strategic importance to global shipping routes.

Saleh has remained largely out of public view since the US intensified its air campaign against the Iran-aligned Houthis to stop the threat they pose to civilian shipping and military vessels in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden.

He further warned that keeping Yemen “a base for the Iranian Revolutionary Guard” threatens not only Yemenis but also regional and international interests.

But achieving stability in the conflict-ridden country hinges on supporting a national state rooted in constitutional rule and genuine popular consensus, not on short-term geopolitical deals, Saleh added.

He called for stronger support for Yemeni forces on the ground to restore balance, not as a tool for escalation, but because it is a national imperative to protect civilians and preserve hard-won gains.

He said the Yemeni government was in ongoing coordination with international partners and the Saudi-led coalition backing legitimacy in Yemen to secure further assistance for the national struggle.

Cooperation with regional and international partners to bolster the country’s coast guard, particularly in the Red Sea, a strategic artery for global trade, also continues, the Yemeni official said.

Maritime security cannot be separated from national sovereignty, and defending sea lanes was integral to restoring state authority on land and at sea, Saleh said.

On achieving peace in Yemen, Saleh said: “There is no meaning to any settlement that does not subject the Houthis to the Yemeni constitution and the rule of law.” He discounted any notion that the militia group could be accommodated outside a constitutional framework.

“Peace cannot be granted to a group that rejects the state,” he said. “It is forged when the state regains the capacity to enforce the law and protect its citizens.”

For Saleh, forging a peace agreement with the Houthis — whom he describes as a bloodthirsty group with no commitment to national frameworks and an ideology rooted in an enemy state — was virtually nonexistent.

He accused the Houthis of placing their leadership and institutions tied to Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps above Yemen’s state institutions.

“Governance is about managing people’s affairs based on shared frameworks,” Saleh said. “The Houthis do not abide by any of that.”

Saleh has put direct blame on Iran for perpetuating the conflict through its armed proxies, keeping Yemen hostage to violence and rebellion, although Tehran has continually denied its involvement.

Saleh also acknowledged the challenges facing the Presidential Leadership Council, and described the internal disagreements as “natural,” given the complexity of the crisis in Yemen.

“In the end,” he said, “what unites us is greater than any differences.

“Disagreements are natural in any leadership body, particularly in exceptional conditions like Yemen’s,” he said. “But more important is our ability to navigate this diversity and divergence while remaining committed to the national interest.”

 


From Dubai to Osaka to Riyadh: Expos mark decade of global dialogue, says UAE official

Updated 11 April 2025
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From Dubai to Osaka to Riyadh: Expos mark decade of global dialogue, says UAE official

  • UAE, Japan, and Saudi Arabia expos each bring distinct strengths and perspectives, says UAE official
  • Expo 2025 Osaka, Kansai will run from April 13 to Oct. 13

DUBAI: The move of expos from Dubai to Osaka and soon to Riyadh presents a “unique opportunity to shape a decade of global engagement” in the Middle East and Asia, according to Shihab Al-Faheem, the UAE pavilion commissioner general.

The sequence of the three locations “offers continuity for themes such as innovation, sustainability, and cultural dialogue,” Al-Faheem said in an interview with Arab News Japan.

“It also strengthens connections between our countries. The UAE, Japan, and Saudi Arabia each bring distinct strengths and perspectives,” he added. “By working together through these global platforms, we can create long-term partnerships that deliver meaningful outcomes for people and the planet.”

Al-Faheem, who is also the UAE’s ambassador to Japan, said the Osaka-Kansai Expo this year carries special meaning for the Gulf country.

The UAE’s first expo journey began in Osaka more than five decades ago, and the commissioner-general explained that returning to Japan was “an opportunity to continue engaging with the world and to contribute to shaping a future grounded in cooperation and collective progress.”

As the baton was passed from Dubai Expo 2020 to Osaka, Al-Faheem said the most important insight the UAE valued was that of creating experiences that are immersive, inclusive and people focused.

“We also learned that strong logistical planning and a flexible, responsive approach are essential to hosting a successful expo,” he told Arab News Japan. “We believe these lessons will resonate with Japan as it welcomes the world in 2025.”

When it comes to the UAE’s participation in Osaka this year, the country’s pavilion will continue its “immersive and multi-sensory journey” giving visitors a chance to “engage on an emotional and intellectual level.”

The UAE Pavilion’s theme is “Earth to Ether,” which expresses the Gulf country’s journey from a heritage rooted in the land to a future defined by innovation.

With sustainability and technology in mind, Al-Faheem said the pavilion uses eco-conscious materials such as Datecrete and palm-based architectural elements to reflect environmental values.

“The content of the pavilion also showcases our leadership in clean energy, smart healthcare, and space technologies,” the ambassador said.

The architectural design draws inspiration from traditional Emirati structures and uses materials from the date palm. Inside the pavilion, visitors will be able to experience stories that reflect the UAE’s values and vision for the future.

Given that the UAE and Japan have both hosted World Expos, Al-Faheem said that this has allowed the two countries to strengthen “an already deep and multifaceted relationship. These global events provide a powerful platform to showcase shared values and to develop partnerships across sectors such as energy, education, culture, and technology.”

The UAE Pavilion at Expo 2025 is expected to honor the relationship between the two countries and create new opportunities for joint initiatives.

Al-Faheem said he hopes that through the upcoming expo, the UAE will be able to deepen people-to-people ties with Japan and to create cultural and educational exchanges.

Expo 2025 Osaka, Kansai will run from April 13 to Oct. 13, with an official opening ceremony on April 12.

This article also appears on Arab News Japan