Hezbollah counts the cost of prolonged conflict with Israel in south Lebanon

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An undeclared war since last October has produced an unexpected psychological, social, and military reality in southern Lebanon, which could cost Hezbollah dearly if the conflict continues or escalates. (AFP)
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An undeclared war since last October has produced an unexpected psychological, social, and military reality in southern Lebanon, which could cost Hezbollah dearly if the conflict continues or escalates. (AFP)
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Updated 08 May 2024
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Hezbollah counts the cost of prolonged conflict with Israel in south Lebanon

  • Since hostilities began after Oct. 7, scores of Hezbollah fighters and commanders have been killed in Israeli strikes
  • Observers say Hezbollah could lose support in south Lebanon over failure to protect and compensate civilians

BEIRUT: Israel claims its forces have eliminated half of Hezbollah’s commanders in southern Lebanon in a series of targeted strikes since the two sides began trading fire in the wake of the Oct. 7 Hamas-led attack on southern Israel.

Hezbollah has acknowledged it is “facing a war led by artificial intelligence,” with its secretary-general, Hassan Nasrallah, urging members near the border to avoid using cell phones and the internet, as these devices could be used to track targets.

“The Israelis take advantage of all modern technologies, social networking sites, and information warfare, carrying out new types of operations through systematic destruction and access to cadres and fighters who are influential to (Hezbollah’s) resistance,” Qassem Kassir, a political writer who specializes in Islamic movements, told Arab News.




An Israeli Air Force helicopter hovers over the border area with south Lebanon in northern Israel on February 28, 2024, amid ongoing cross-border tensions with Hezbollah. (AFP File Photo)

While Hezbollah has no doubt lost a significant number of fighters and commanders since the outbreak of hostilities, it also has what analysts have called “a deep bench,” capable of fighting a full-scale war.

Given Hezbollah’s demographic advantage and its formidable local support base, analysts express skepticism about whether Israel can achieve its goal of pushing Hezbollah north of the Litani River in Lebanon.

“Today, Hezbollah is fighting a new battle, whether via direct confrontations, which is different from their traditional hit-and-run or guerrilla warfare tactics, or in terms of the quality of weapons and various capabilities that develop day after day,” said Kassir.

Nevertheless, Hezbollah’s ongoing war of attrition with Israel has produced an unexpected psychological, social, and military reality in southern Lebanon, which could cost it dearly if the conflict continues or escalates.

The majority of Lebanese deaths have been recorded on the southern front, with more than 438 noted by Lebanon’s Disaster Risk Management Unit. Most of these deaths are among military-aged males — fighters, rather than civilians.

According to a tally taken by the Associated Press, Israeli strikes have killed more than 350 people in Lebanon, most of them fighters with Hezbollah and allied groups, but also including more than 50 civilians.




village of Houla on March 6, 2024. The trio were killed a day earlier in Israeli bombardment. (AFP)

Meanwhile, strikes by Hezbollah have killed at least 10 civilians and 12 soldiers in Israel, and have forced authorities to evacuate civilians away from the border, fearing a possible raid akin to Oct. 7.

Despite its losses, Hezbollah says it has used only a fraction of its capabilities against Israel, with the bulk of its arsenal of drones, missiles, and other advanced weapons supplied by Iran held in reserve should the conflict escalate.

Kassir believes recent Israeli wins have barely made a dent in Hezbollah’s combat machinery, and that the militia has sufficient means and manpower to continue fighting for the long haul.

“The Israeli talk about Hezbollah’s defeat is a kind of psychological warfare,” he said. “Hezbollah can continue fighting. It has so far used only 10 percent of its capabilities and is ready for any battle.




Lebanese Hezbollah fighters stand near multiple rocket launchers during a press tour in the southern Lebanese village of Aaramta on May 21, 2023. (AFP)

While Hezbollah may be resilient enough to withstand current Israeli attacks, that says nothing of the communities along Lebanon’s southern border.

The daily exchange of fire has maimed and killed scores of civilians and caused significant damage to homes, businesses, farmland, and forests. Tens of thousands of residents have fled their towns and villages for the relative safety of the north.

Some analysts and observers believe support for Hezbollah could quickly wane if the civilian population continues to bear the brunt of these armed exchanges, or if the recent spate of setbacks undermines public confidence.

“There is no doubt that there has been a radical change in the perception of Hezbollah’s circumstances towards the power and deterrence that the party used to boast about,” Ali Al-Amin, editor of the Lebanese news site Janoubia, told Arab News




Mourners and family members attend the funeral of May Ammar and her son Ahmad Hnaiki on May 6, 2024, killed the previous day in an Israeli air strike on the southern Lebanese border village of Meis al-Jabal. The daily exchange of fire between Israel and Hezbollah has maimed and killed scores of civilians and caused significant damage to homes, businesses, farmland, and forests. (AFP)

Indeed, as the confidence the group once instilled in the Lebanese population after the 2006 war with Israel begins to dissipate, Al-Amin says Hezbollah may be losing its wider backing.

In particular, residents and business owners in the border regions, who previously built mansions and villas and invested heavily in tourism projects there, are now doubting Hezbollah’s promise to protect them and their assets.

“Hezbollah has not been able to protect this environment, and there is a rift between this environment and what is happening on the border,” said Al-Amin.

“In the villages where the displaced have taken refuge, there are questions such as: ‘Why did Israel manage to catch so many Hezbollah members and not the same in the Gaza Strip? Why were our homes destroyed and on the other side, the settlers’ homes are still standing and were not targeted by Hezbollah’s weapons, as is the case in the Lebanese Kafr Kila? Why does the enemy have so much accurate information about Hezbollah cadres and their movements and thus targets them?’”




Caption

Mindful of the reputational risks, Hezbollah has tried to stage-manage its image and conceal any perceived blunders.

“In the July 2006 war, there was a kind of contract between Nasrallah and his supporters which translated into blind trust in what he says,” said Al-Amin. “But, the scenes of destruction in the frontline villages are not allowed to be published in the media.

“This is because it would give the impression of an Israeli victory and that the rockets fired from Lebanon are for reconnaissance and not to harm, unlike Israel’s scorched-earth tactics for southern Lebanon.”  

Nonetheless, the militia’s failings have not gone unnoticed.

“Hezbollah is facing a crisis due to the length of the conflict and its losses, and because of its security weaknesses, which enabled Israel to assassinate its field commanders and fight a war of attrition,” Harith Suleiman, an academic and political writer, told Arab News.




Hezbollah protest in Beirut on October 13, 2023, after the assassination of Hezbollah top commander Imad Mughnieh by Israeli agents. (AFP)

“The Israeli side did not incur high political, human and military costs.”

Thus far, there has been little in the way of international condemnation concerning Israeli strikes on southern Lebanon. Western diplomatic efforts have instead focused on Hezbollah’s demilitarization and demands for its separation from the conflict in Gaza.

Western diplomats, primarily led by France, have brought forward a series of proposals for a cessation of hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah.

Most of these hinge on Hezbollah moving its forces several kilometers from the border, a beefed-up Lebanese Army presence, and negotiations for Israeli forces to withdraw from disputed points along the border.

The eventual goal is the full implementation of UN Security Council Resolution 1701 that brought an end to the month-long war between Israel and Hezbollah in 2006 and that stipulated the full withdrawal of Israeli forces from Lebanon, their replacement by Lebanese and UNIFIL forces, and the disarmament of Hezbollah.




Map of the border area between Lebanon and Israel. (AFP)

Hezbollah has signaled its willingness to entertain the proposals but has said there will be no deal in Lebanon before a ceasefire in Gaza. Israeli officials, meanwhile, have said a Gaza ceasefire does not automatically mean it will halt its strikes in Lebanon, even if Hezbollah does so.

“Hezbollah will accept the offered option to stop the confrontations in southern Lebanon and implement Resolution 1701,” said Suleiman.

However, Hezbollah’s acceptance of this agreement is contingent upon Israel’s acceptance of Egyptian-mediated deals with Israel, Suleiman added.

While life elsewhere in Lebanon continues as normal despite the armed exchanges in the south, discussions in the districts of Bint Jbeil, Tyre, and Nabatieh — just 5 km north of the border — are dominated by the question of who will compensate communities for their damaged homes, farms and businesses.




Smoke billows from the site of an Israeli airstrike on the southern Lebanese village of Khiam near the border on May 8, 2024, amid ongoing cross-border tensions between Israel and Hezbollah. Hezbollah has reportedly offered compensation for families whose houses had been destroyed in the conflict. (AFP)

This uncertainty over compensation and how long the conflict will last has the potential to fuel resentment.

“Hezbollah is currently offering a displaced person whose house was destroyed $40,000, or he must wait for the end of the war for Hezbollah to rebuild his house,” said Al-Amin.

There is a lack of clarity, however, as to how equally this compensation will be distributed.

“Does Hezbollah, for example, reconstruct mansions, including what are considered architectural masterpieces that cost hundreds of thousands of dollars, at a different cost than ordinary houses destroyed by the bombing?” said Al-Amin.

“Does the average citizen accept this unfairness in compensation? This is one of the issues that awaits Hezbollah and causes a rift between it and its supporters.”

 


2 children and a woman crushed to death outside Gaza bakery amid food shortage

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2 children and a woman crushed to death outside Gaza bakery amid food shortage

The bodies of two girls aged 13 and 17 and the 50-year-old woman were taken to the Al-Aqsa Martyrs Hospital in Deir Al-Balah in central Gaza
Osama Abu Laban, the father of one of the girls, wailed over the loss of her life outside the hospital

GAZA: Two children and a woman were crushed to death Friday as a crowd of Palestinians pushed to get bread at a bakery in the Gaza Strip amid a worsening food crisis in the war-ravaged territory, medical officials said.
The bodies of two girls aged 13 and 17 and the 50-year-old woman were taken to the Al-Aqsa Martyrs Hospital in Deir Al-Balah in central Gaza, where a doctor confirmed that they died from suffocation due to crowding at the Al-Banna bakery. Video from The Associated Press showed their bodies placed next to each other on the floor inside the hospital’s morgue.
The flow of food allowed into Gaza by Israel has fallen to nearly its lowest level of almost 14-month-old war for the past two months, according to Israeli official figures. UN and aid officials say hunger and desperation are growing among Gaza’s population, almost all of which relies on humanitarian aid to survive.
Osama Abu Laban, the father of one of the girls, wailed over the loss of her life outside the hospital.
“My wife fell when she heard that she (our daughter) was suffocating. She did not yet know that she was dead,” he told the AP.
Some bakeries in Gaza were closed for several days last week due to a shortage of flour. AP footage taken last week after they reopened showed large crowds of people cramming together, screaming and pushing, at one bakery in Deir Al-Balah.
Palestinians across the Gaza Strip are heavily relying on bakeries and charitable kitchens, with many able to only secure one meal a day for their families.
In Lebanon, thousands of displaced people began returning to their homes this week after a ceasefire was announced between Israel and the Hezbollah militant group.
Many found their homes reduced to rubble after intense Israeli airstrikes over the past two months leveled entire neighborhoods in eastern and southern Lebanon, as well as the southern suburbs of Beirut. Nearly 1.2 million people have been displaced.
The truce was the first major sign of progress in the region since war began more than a year ago, triggered by Hamas’ attack on Israel on Oct. 7, 2023. But it does not address the devastating war in Gaza. For Palestinians in Gaza and families of hostages held in the territory, the ceasefire marked another missed opportunity to end fighting that has stretched on for nearly 14 months.
More than 44,000 people have been killed and more than 104,000 wounded, according to Gaza’s Health Ministry. Israel has destroyed large parts of Gaza and displaced nearly all of its 2.3 million people.

Israelis are wary of returning to the north because they don’t trust the ceasefire with Hezbollah

Updated 34 min 41 sec ago
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Israelis are wary of returning to the north because they don’t trust the ceasefire with Hezbollah

  • “The ceasefire is rubbish,” said Sweetland, a gardener and member of the kibbutz’s civilian security squad
  • Across the border, Lebanese civilians have jammed roads in a rush to return to homes in the country’s south, but most residents of northern Israel have met the ceasefire with suspicion

KIBBUTZ MALKIYA, Israel: Dean Sweetland casts his gaze over a forlorn street in the Israeli community of Kibbutz Malkiya. Perched on a hill overlooking the border with Lebanon, the town stands mostly empty after being abandoned a year ago.
The daycare is closed. The homes are unkempt. Parts of the landscape are ashen from fires sparked by fallen Hezbollah rockets. Even after a tenuous Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire designed to let Israelis return to the north, the mood here is far from celebratory.
“The ceasefire is rubbish,” said Sweetland, a gardener and member of the kibbutz’s civilian security squad. “Do you expect me to ring around my friends and say, ‘All the families should come home?’ No.”
Across the border, Lebanese civilians have jammed roads in a rush to return to homes in the country’s south, but most residents of northern Israel have met the ceasefire with suspicion and apprehension.
“Hezbollah could still come back to the border, and who will protect us when they do?” Sweetland asked.
Israel’s government seeks to bring the northern reaches of the country back to life, particularly the line of communities directly abutting Lebanon that have played a major role in staking out Israel’s border.
But the fear of Hezbollah, a lack of trust in United Nations peacekeeping forces charged with upholding the ceasefire, deep anger at the government and some Israelis’ desire to keep rebuilding their lives elsewhere are keeping many from returning immediately.
When the truce took effect, about 45,000 Israelis had evacuated from the north. They fled their homes after Hezbollah began firing across the border on Oct. 8, 2023, in solidarity with its ally Hamas in Gaza. That triggered more than a year of cross-border exchanges, with Lebanese villages in the south and Israeli communities facing the border taking the brunt of the pain.
During the truce’s initial 60-day phase, Hezbollah is supposed to remove its armed presence from a broad band of southern Lebanon where the military says the militant group had been digging in for years by gathering weapons and setting up rocket launch sites and other infrastructure. Under the ceasefire, a UN peacekeeping force known as UNIFIL and a beefed-up Lebanese army presence are supposed to ensure Hezbollah doesn’t return.
Many residents of northern Israel are skeptical that the peace will hold.
Sarah Gould, who evacuated Kibbutz Malkiya at the start of the war with her three kids, said Hezbollah fired on the community up to and just past the minute when the ceasefire took effect early Wednesday.
“So for the government to tell me that Hezbollah is neutralized,” she said, “it’s a perfect lie.”
Residents fear for their safety in the far north
In Gaza, where Israel is pushing forward with a war that has killed over 44,000 Palestinians, Israel’s goal is the eradication of Hamas. But in Lebanon, Israel’s aims were limited to pushing Hezbollah away from the border so northern residents could return home.
Israeli critics say the government should have kept fighting to outright cripple Hezbollah or to clear out the border area, which is home to hundreds of thousands of Lebanese.
“I won’t even begin to consider going home until I know there’s a dead zone for kilometers across the border,” the 46-year-old Gould said.
Some wary Israelis trickled back home Thursday and Friday to areas farther from the border. But communities like Kibbutz Manara, set on a tiny slice of land between Lebanon and Syria, remained ghost towns.
Orna Weinberg, 58, who was born and raised in Manara, said it was too early to tell whether the ceasefire would protect the community.
Perched above all the other border villages, Manara was uniquely vulnerable to Hezbollah fire throughout the war. Three-quarters of its structures were damaged.
In the kibbutz’s communal kitchen and dining hall, ceiling beams have collapsed. The uprooted floorboards are covered with ash from fires that also claimed much of the kibbutz’s cropland.
Rocket fragments abound. The torso of a mannequin, a decoy dressed in army green, lies on the ground.
Weinberg tried to stay in Manara during the war, but after anti-tank shrapnel damaged her home, soldiers told her to leave. On Thursday, she walked along her street, which looks out directly over a UNIFIL position separating the kibbutz from a line of Lebanese villages that have been decimated by Israeli bombardment and demolitions.
Weinberg said UNIFIL hadn’t prevented Hezbollah’s build-up in the past, “so why would they be able to now?”
“A ceasefire here just gives Hezbollah a chance to rebuild their power and come back to places that they were driven out of,” she said.
The truce seemed fragile.
Associated Press reporters heard sporadic bursts of gunfire, likely Israeli troops firing at Lebanese attempting to enter the towns. Israel’s military says it is temporarily preventing Lebanese civilians from returning home to a line of towns closest to the border, until the Lebanese military can deploy there in force.
Even in less battered communities, no one returns home
Though the atmosphere along the border was tense, Malkiya showed signs of peace. With Hezbollah’s rockets stopped, some residents returned briefly to the kibbutz to peer around cautiously.
At a vista overlooking the border, where the hulking wreckage of Lebanese villages could made out, a group of around 30 soldiers gathered. Just days ago, they would have made easy targets for Hezbollah fire.
Malkiya has sustained less damage than Manara. Still, residents said they would not return immediately. During a year of displacement, many have restarted their lives elsewhere, and the idea of going back to a front-line town on the border is daunting.
In Lebanon, where Israeli bombardment and ground assaults drove some 1.2 million people from their homes, some of the displaced crowded into schools-turned-shelters or slept in the streets.
In Israel, the government paid for hotels for evacuees and helped accommodate children in new schools. Gould predicted residents would return to the kibbutz only when government subsidies for their lodging dried up — “not because they want to, but because they feel like they can’t afford an alternative.”
“It’s not just a security issue,” Gould said. “We’ve spent more than a year rebuilding our lives wherever we landed. It’s a question of having to gather that up and move back somewhere else, somewhere that’s technically our old house but not a home. Nothing feels the same.”
It’s unclear if schools in the border communities will have enough students to reopen, Gould said, and her children are already enrolled elsewhere. She’s enjoyed living farther from the border, away from an open war zone.
There’s also a deep feeling that the communities were abandoned by the government, Sweetland said.
Sweetland is one of roughly 25 civilian security volunteers who stayed throughout the war, braving continual rocket fire to keep the kibbutz afloat. They repaired damaged homes, put out blazes and helped replace the kibbutz generator when it was taken out by Hezbollah fire. They were on their own, with no firefighters or police willing to risk coming, he said.
“We didn’t have any help for months and months and months, and we pleaded, ‘Please help us.’”
Sweetland said he will keep watching over the hushed pathways of the once-vibrant community in hopes his neighbors will soon feel safe enough to return. But he predicted it would take months.
Weinberg hopes to move back to Manara as soon as possible. On Thursday, she spotted a former neighbor who was about to leave after checking the damage to her home.
Weinberg grasped her hand through the car window, asking how she was. The woman grimaced and began to cry. Their hands parted as the car slowly rolled out through the gates and drove away.


France urges ceasefire in Sudan war, pledges aid to Chad

Updated 29 November 2024
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France urges ceasefire in Sudan war, pledges aid to Chad

  • French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot denounced the attitude of Russia, which vetoed a UN resolution last week that urged a ceasefire and the protection of civilians in Sudan
  • Russia has “abandoned the Sudanese” and “unveiled its relationship with Africa, a relationship based on greed, cynicism and hyprocrisy“

ADRE, Chad: France’s foreign minister on Thursday called on foreign nations to stop helping the warring sides in famine-stricken Sudan’s civil war as he visited refugee camps in neighboring Chad.
Sudan has been mired since April 2023 in conflict between the army, led by General Abdel Fattah Al-Burhan, and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), led by his former deputy, General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo.
Both sides face accusations of war crimes, including targeting civilians, shelling residential areas, and blocking or looting aid.
The conflict has killed tens of thousands and forced over 11 million people out of their homes, with 2.1 million fleeing the country. The United Nations estimates that more than 25 million people — over half the population — facing acute hunger.
French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot denounced the attitude of Russia, which vetoed a UN resolution last week that urged a ceasefire and the protection of civilians in Sudan.
Russia has “abandoned the Sudanese” and “unveiled its relationship with Africa, a relationship based on greed, cynicism and hyprocrisy,” the minister said.
Around 1.5 million Sudanese refugees have fled to Chad, a country of 20 million people.
Barrot urged the Sudanese armed forces to “keep the Adre crossing open and lift all bureaucratic impediments to the delivery of humanitarian aid.”
Adre, leading into Chad, is the only access point to famine-stricken Darfur in western Sudan.
He urged the RSF to “cease looting, racketeering and the diversion of humanitarian convoys to allow them to arrive at their destination.”
Chad’s Foreign Minister Abderaman Koulamallah, who was with Barrot said that Chad “remains strictly neutral in the conflict.”
“We have an interest in bringing peace back to Sudan and remaining as neutral as possible in this war,” he added.
Barrot pledged an additional seven million euros ($7.4 million) in aid to support efforts to fight cholera and help women and children in Chad.
Paris had already vowed to donate $110 million in April.
Several nations have promised more than $2 billion for Sudan, but voiced concern about getting the aid to the population.


The diplomatic push that took Lebanon from Armageddon to ceasefire

Updated 29 November 2024
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The diplomatic push that took Lebanon from Armageddon to ceasefire

  • Lebanese officials had made it clear to the US that Lebanon had little trust in either Washington or Netanyahu, two European diplomats said
  • France had been increasingly critical of Israel’s military campaigns, and Lebanese officials regarded it as a counterweight in talks to the US, the Western diplomat said

PARIS/WASHINGTON/BEIRUT: The ceasefire deal that ended a relentless barrage of Israeli airstrikes and led Lebanon into a shaky peace took shape over weeks of talks and was uncertain until the final hours.
US envoy Amos Hochstein shuttled repeatedly to Beirut and Jerusalem despite the ructions of an election at home to secure a deal that required help from France — and that was nearly derailed by international arrest warrants for Israel’s leaders.
Israel had signalled last month that it had achieved its main war goals in Lebanon by dealing Iran-backed Hezbollah a series of stunning blows, but an agreed truce remained some way off.
A football match, intense shuttle diplomacy and pressure from the United States all helped get it over the line on Tuesday night, officials and diplomats said.
Longstanding enemies, Israel and Hezbollah have been fighting for 14 months since the Lebanese group began firing rockets at Israeli military targets in support of the Palestinian militant group Hamas.
Escalations over the summer drew in Hezbollah’s main patron Iran and threatened a regional conflagration, as Israel refocused its military from the urban ruins of Gaza to the rugged border hills of Lebanon.
Israel stepped up its campaign suddenly in September with its pager attack and targeted airstrikes that killed Hezbollah’s leader and many in its command structure. Tanks crossed the border late on Sept. 30.
With swathes of southern Lebanon in ruins, more than a million Lebanese driven from their homes and Hezbollah under pressure, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu indicated in October there was “a window” for a deal, a senior US administration official said.
Although some in Israel sought a more comprehensive victory and an uninhabited buffer zone in Lebanon, the country was strained by a two-front war that had required many people to leave their jobs to fight as reservists.

DIPLOMACY
“You sometimes get a sense when things get into the final lane, where the parties are not only close, but that the will is there and the desire is there and the stars are aligned,” the senior US administration official said in a briefing.
Officials of the governments of Israel, Lebanon, France and the US who described to Reuters how the agreement came together declined to be identified for this story, citing the sensitivity of the matter.
Hezbollah did not immediately respond to a request for comment about how the deal was negotiated.
In Lebanon, Hezbollah was still fighting but under intense pressure, and newly open to a ceasefire that was not dependent on a truce in Gaza — in effect dropping a demand it had made early in the war.
The Shiite group had in early October endorsed Lebanon’s veteran Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, its longtime ally, to lead negotiations.
With Hochstein shuttling between the countries, meeting Israeli negotiators under Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer and reporting back daily to US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan, France was also in the picture.
Paris had been working with Hochstein on a failed attempt for a truce in September and was still working in parallel to the US
Lebanese officials had made it clear to the US that Lebanon had little trust in either Washington or Netanyahu, two European diplomats said.
France had been increasingly critical of Israel’s military campaigns, and Lebanese officials regarded it as a counterweight in talks to the US, the Western diplomat said.
French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot visited the region in early November at Israel’s request despite tensions between the countries.
He held long talks with Dermer on the mechanics of a ceasefire with a phased approach to redeployments, with the two delegations poring over maps, two sources aware of the matter said.
As things worsened for Lebanon, there was frustration at the pace of talks. “(Hochstein) told us he needed 10 days to get to a ceasefire but the Israelis dragged it out to a month to finish up military operations,” a Lebanese official said.

VIOLATIONS
The deal was to be based on better implementation of UN Security Council Resolution 1701, which ended a 2006 war between Israel and Hezbollah. Both sides complained of repeated violations of that deal and wanted reassurances.
The main sticking point was Israel’s insistence on a free hand to strike if Hezbollah violated 1701. That was not acceptable to Lebanon.
Eventually Israel and the US agreed a side-deal — verbal assurances according to a Western diplomat — that Israel would be able to respond to threats.
“The two sides keep their right to defend themselves, but we want to do everything to avoid them exercising that right,” a European diplomat said.
Israel was also worried about Hezbollah weapons supplies through Syria. It sent messages to Syrian President Bashar Assad via intermediaries to prevent this, three diplomatic sources said.
It reinforced the message by ramping up air strikes in Syria, including near Russian forces in Latakia province where there is a major port, the three sources said.
“Israel can almost dictate the terms. Hezbollah is massively weakened. Hezbollah wants and needs a ceasefire more than Israel does. This is finishing not due to American diplomacy but because Israel feels it has done what it needs to do,” said a senior Western diplomat.

OBSTACLES The talks intensified as the Nov. 5 US presidential election loomed and reached a turning point after Donald Trump won the vote.
US mediators briefed the Trump team, telling them the deal was good for Israel, good for Lebanon and good for US national security, the senior US administration official said.
A potential new flashpoint endangering the critical role of Paris in the negotiations emerged as an Israeli soccer team traveled to France after violence had engulfed Israeli fans in Amsterdam.
However, with French authorities averting trouble, French President Emmanuel Macron sat next to the Israeli ambassador in the stadium. “The match was so boring that the two spent an hour talking about how to calm tensions between the two allies and move forward,” the source aware of the matter said.
At this key moment the International Criminal Court issued arrest warrants for Netanyahu and former Israeli defense minister Yoav Gallant.
Netanyahu threatened to cut France out of any deal if Paris abided by its Rome Statute obligation to arrest him if he went there, three sources said. That could in turn torpedo Lebanese agreement to the truce.
US President Joe Biden phoned Macron, who in turn phoned Netanyahu before Biden and Macron spoke again, the US official said. The Elysee eventually settled on a statement accepting the ICC’s authority but shying away from threats of an arrest.
Over the weekend US officials then ramped up pressure on Israel, with Hochstein warning that if a deal was not agreed within days, he would pull the plug on mediation, two Israeli officials said.
By Tuesday it all came together and on Wednesday the bombs stopped falling.


Israel building military corridor splitting northern Gaza: BBC

Palestinians walk next to damaged buildings after Israeli forces withdrew from a part of Nuseirat in central Gaza on November 29
Updated 29 November 2024
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Israel building military corridor splitting northern Gaza: BBC

  • Satellite photos, video footage show buildings demolished, troop positions established
  • Expert: ‘I think they’re going to settle Jewish settlers in the north, probably in the next 18 months’

LONDON: Israel is building military infrastructure separating the north of the Gaza Strip from the rest of the Palestinian enclave, the BBC has reported.

The broadcaster’s Verify team said it has seen satellite images showing that buildings have been demolished along a line from the Israeli border with Gaza to the Mediterranean through a series of controlled explosions.

BBC Verify added that the images show Israeli military vehicles and soldiers stationed along the line, which reaches almost 9 km across the enclave, cutting off Gaza City from the towns of Jabalia, Beit Hanoun and Beit Lahia.

Footage has also emerged online of Israeli soldiers destroying buildings in the area since October, and of personnel driving Humvee vehicles through the zone.

Footage has also been released by Hamas fighters still in the area engaging with Israeli ground forces and tanks around the new dividing line.

Dr. H. A. Hellyer, a Middle East expert at the Royal United Services Institute, told the BBC that the images suggest Israel will block thousands of Palestinians from returning to their homes in northern Gaza.

This new partition is not the first to be built in Gaza since the start of the war in October 2023.

The Netzarim Corridor to the south separates Gaza City into two areas, whilst the Philadelphi Corridor separates the south of the enclave from its border with Egypt.

“They’re digging in for the long term,” Hellyer said. “I would absolutely expect the north partition to develop exactly like the Netzarim Corridor.”

He added: “I think they’re going to settle Jewish settlers in the north, probably in the next 18 months. They won’t call them settlements.

“To begin with they’ll call them outposts or whatever, but that’s what they’ll be and they’ll grow from there.”

The developments have raised fears that Israel is implementing a plan devised by former Gen. Giora Elland to force civilians out of northern Gaza by limiting supplies, and informing those who remain that they will be treated as enemy combatants, in a bid to pressure Hamas into releasing Israeli hostages.

The BBC reported that around 90 percent of Gaza has been subject to evacuation orders at various points since the start of the conflict, with millions of people repeatedly displaced.

The UN estimates, with the assistance of aid agencies working in Gaza, that around 65,000 people could still be trapped north of the new line, where they face the prospect of starving. 

A UN spokesperson on Tuesday said “virtually no aid” is entering the area, and locals are “facing critical shortages of supplies and services, as well as severe overcrowding and poor hygiene conditions.”

Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich has said Israel should occupy Gaza and “encourage” Palestinians to leave.