Hezbollah counts the cost of prolonged conflict with Israel in south Lebanon

1 / 2
An undeclared war since last October has produced an unexpected psychological, social, and military reality in southern Lebanon, which could cost Hezbollah dearly if the conflict continues or escalates. (AFP)
Short Url
Updated 08 May 2024
Follow

Hezbollah counts the cost of prolonged conflict with Israel in south Lebanon

  • Since hostilities began after Oct. 7, scores of Hezbollah fighters and commanders have been killed in Israeli strikes
  • Observers say Hezbollah could lose support in south Lebanon over failure to protect and compensate civilians

BEIRUT: Israel claims its forces have eliminated half of Hezbollah’s commanders in southern Lebanon in a series of targeted strikes since the two sides began trading fire in the wake of the Oct. 7 Hamas-led attack on southern Israel.

Hezbollah has acknowledged it is “facing a war led by artificial intelligence,” with its secretary-general, Hassan Nasrallah, urging members near the border to avoid using cell phones and the internet, as these devices could be used to track targets.

“The Israelis take advantage of all modern technologies, social networking sites, and information warfare, carrying out new types of operations through systematic destruction and access to cadres and fighters who are influential to (Hezbollah’s) resistance,” Qassem Kassir, a political writer who specializes in Islamic movements, told Arab News.




An Israeli Air Force helicopter hovers over the border area with south Lebanon in northern Israel on February 28, 2024, amid ongoing cross-border tensions with Hezbollah. (AFP File Photo)

While Hezbollah has no doubt lost a significant number of fighters and commanders since the outbreak of hostilities, it also has what analysts have called “a deep bench,” capable of fighting a full-scale war.

Given Hezbollah’s demographic advantage and its formidable local support base, analysts express skepticism about whether Israel can achieve its goal of pushing Hezbollah north of the Litani River in Lebanon.

“Today, Hezbollah is fighting a new battle, whether via direct confrontations, which is different from their traditional hit-and-run or guerrilla warfare tactics, or in terms of the quality of weapons and various capabilities that develop day after day,” said Kassir.

Nevertheless, Hezbollah’s ongoing war of attrition with Israel has produced an unexpected psychological, social, and military reality in southern Lebanon, which could cost it dearly if the conflict continues or escalates.

The majority of Lebanese deaths have been recorded on the southern front, with more than 438 noted by Lebanon’s Disaster Risk Management Unit. Most of these deaths are among military-aged males — fighters, rather than civilians.

According to a tally taken by the Associated Press, Israeli strikes have killed more than 350 people in Lebanon, most of them fighters with Hezbollah and allied groups, but also including more than 50 civilians.




village of Houla on March 6, 2024. The trio were killed a day earlier in Israeli bombardment. (AFP)

Meanwhile, strikes by Hezbollah have killed at least 10 civilians and 12 soldiers in Israel, and have forced authorities to evacuate civilians away from the border, fearing a possible raid akin to Oct. 7.

Despite its losses, Hezbollah says it has used only a fraction of its capabilities against Israel, with the bulk of its arsenal of drones, missiles, and other advanced weapons supplied by Iran held in reserve should the conflict escalate.

Kassir believes recent Israeli wins have barely made a dent in Hezbollah’s combat machinery, and that the militia has sufficient means and manpower to continue fighting for the long haul.

“The Israeli talk about Hezbollah’s defeat is a kind of psychological warfare,” he said. “Hezbollah can continue fighting. It has so far used only 10 percent of its capabilities and is ready for any battle.




Lebanese Hezbollah fighters stand near multiple rocket launchers during a press tour in the southern Lebanese village of Aaramta on May 21, 2023. (AFP)

While Hezbollah may be resilient enough to withstand current Israeli attacks, that says nothing of the communities along Lebanon’s southern border.

The daily exchange of fire has maimed and killed scores of civilians and caused significant damage to homes, businesses, farmland, and forests. Tens of thousands of residents have fled their towns and villages for the relative safety of the north.

Some analysts and observers believe support for Hezbollah could quickly wane if the civilian population continues to bear the brunt of these armed exchanges, or if the recent spate of setbacks undermines public confidence.

“There is no doubt that there has been a radical change in the perception of Hezbollah’s circumstances towards the power and deterrence that the party used to boast about,” Ali Al-Amin, editor of the Lebanese news site Janoubia, told Arab News




Mourners and family members attend the funeral of May Ammar and her son Ahmad Hnaiki on May 6, 2024, killed the previous day in an Israeli air strike on the southern Lebanese border village of Meis al-Jabal. The daily exchange of fire between Israel and Hezbollah has maimed and killed scores of civilians and caused significant damage to homes, businesses, farmland, and forests. (AFP)

Indeed, as the confidence the group once instilled in the Lebanese population after the 2006 war with Israel begins to dissipate, Al-Amin says Hezbollah may be losing its wider backing.

In particular, residents and business owners in the border regions, who previously built mansions and villas and invested heavily in tourism projects there, are now doubting Hezbollah’s promise to protect them and their assets.

“Hezbollah has not been able to protect this environment, and there is a rift between this environment and what is happening on the border,” said Al-Amin.

“In the villages where the displaced have taken refuge, there are questions such as: ‘Why did Israel manage to catch so many Hezbollah members and not the same in the Gaza Strip? Why were our homes destroyed and on the other side, the settlers’ homes are still standing and were not targeted by Hezbollah’s weapons, as is the case in the Lebanese Kafr Kila? Why does the enemy have so much accurate information about Hezbollah cadres and their movements and thus targets them?’”




Caption

Mindful of the reputational risks, Hezbollah has tried to stage-manage its image and conceal any perceived blunders.

“In the July 2006 war, there was a kind of contract between Nasrallah and his supporters which translated into blind trust in what he says,” said Al-Amin. “But, the scenes of destruction in the frontline villages are not allowed to be published in the media.

“This is because it would give the impression of an Israeli victory and that the rockets fired from Lebanon are for reconnaissance and not to harm, unlike Israel’s scorched-earth tactics for southern Lebanon.”  

Nonetheless, the militia’s failings have not gone unnoticed.

“Hezbollah is facing a crisis due to the length of the conflict and its losses, and because of its security weaknesses, which enabled Israel to assassinate its field commanders and fight a war of attrition,” Harith Suleiman, an academic and political writer, told Arab News.




Hezbollah protest in Beirut on October 13, 2023, after the assassination of Hezbollah top commander Imad Mughnieh by Israeli agents. (AFP)

“The Israeli side did not incur high political, human and military costs.”

Thus far, there has been little in the way of international condemnation concerning Israeli strikes on southern Lebanon. Western diplomatic efforts have instead focused on Hezbollah’s demilitarization and demands for its separation from the conflict in Gaza.

Western diplomats, primarily led by France, have brought forward a series of proposals for a cessation of hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah.

Most of these hinge on Hezbollah moving its forces several kilometers from the border, a beefed-up Lebanese Army presence, and negotiations for Israeli forces to withdraw from disputed points along the border.

The eventual goal is the full implementation of UN Security Council Resolution 1701 that brought an end to the month-long war between Israel and Hezbollah in 2006 and that stipulated the full withdrawal of Israeli forces from Lebanon, their replacement by Lebanese and UNIFIL forces, and the disarmament of Hezbollah.




Map of the border area between Lebanon and Israel. (AFP)

Hezbollah has signaled its willingness to entertain the proposals but has said there will be no deal in Lebanon before a ceasefire in Gaza. Israeli officials, meanwhile, have said a Gaza ceasefire does not automatically mean it will halt its strikes in Lebanon, even if Hezbollah does so.

“Hezbollah will accept the offered option to stop the confrontations in southern Lebanon and implement Resolution 1701,” said Suleiman.

However, Hezbollah’s acceptance of this agreement is contingent upon Israel’s acceptance of Egyptian-mediated deals with Israel, Suleiman added.

While life elsewhere in Lebanon continues as normal despite the armed exchanges in the south, discussions in the districts of Bint Jbeil, Tyre, and Nabatieh — just 5 km north of the border — are dominated by the question of who will compensate communities for their damaged homes, farms and businesses.




Smoke billows from the site of an Israeli airstrike on the southern Lebanese village of Khiam near the border on May 8, 2024, amid ongoing cross-border tensions between Israel and Hezbollah. Hezbollah has reportedly offered compensation for families whose houses had been destroyed in the conflict. (AFP)

This uncertainty over compensation and how long the conflict will last has the potential to fuel resentment.

“Hezbollah is currently offering a displaced person whose house was destroyed $40,000, or he must wait for the end of the war for Hezbollah to rebuild his house,” said Al-Amin.

There is a lack of clarity, however, as to how equally this compensation will be distributed.

“Does Hezbollah, for example, reconstruct mansions, including what are considered architectural masterpieces that cost hundreds of thousands of dollars, at a different cost than ordinary houses destroyed by the bombing?” said Al-Amin.

“Does the average citizen accept this unfairness in compensation? This is one of the issues that awaits Hezbollah and causes a rift between it and its supporters.”

 


Killings rise when Gaza Health Foundation distributes aid: Analysis

Palestinian children line up to receive a hot meal at a food distribution point in Nuseirat on June 30, 2025. (AFP)
Updated 6 sec ago
Follow

Killings rise when Gaza Health Foundation distributes aid: Analysis

  • Sky News finds correlation between aid drops, increased fatalities
  • UN labels GHF sites ‘death traps,’ amid claims Israeli soldiers deliberately fire at civilians

LONDON: An investigation has found an increase in deaths in Gaza correlated with aid distribution overseen by the US- and Israel-backed Gaza Health Foundation.

The GHF took over humanitarian supply systems in the Palestinian enclave in May, replacing around 400 distribution sites run by other charities and NGOs with four designated facilities, called Secure Distribution Sites.

They were meant to ensure that aid did not fall into the hands of Hamas or other armed groups, which Israel alleges frequently happened under the previous UN-backed system.

However, Gaza’s health authorities say more than 600 Palestinians have been killed trying to access aid at the sites, which the UN has labeled “death traps.” Israeli soldiers have been accused of opening fire directly at civilians.

Analysis conducted by Sky News suggests that killings rise when aid is distributed by the GHF.

Sky’s Data & Forensics Unit found that an average of 48 deaths and 189 injuries are reported when the GHF operates two or fewer aid distributions. That number rises almost threefold when it runs five to six aid drops. 

Sky reported that between June 5 and July 1, 77 aid distributions were conducted by the GHF. Of those, 23 — or 30 percent of the total — resulted in reports of violence, and at SDS4 half of all drops saw bloodshed.

A recent report by Israeli newspaper Haaretz interviewed Israeli soldiers who said they were ordered to fire at crowds of unarmed Palestinians at the GHF sites.

The Israeli military denies the allegations, but said it is investigating incidents where civilians have been harmed.

The UN, in its most recent update on June 24, put the number of casualties at GHF sites at 410, citing data available from nearby hospitals.

The GHF has been severely criticized for the manner in which aid is distributed, with footage obtained by Sky on June 15 showing Palestinians at SDS1 crowding and rummaging among hundreds of scattered aid packages discarded on the floor.

Sky’s analysis found that aid is often delivered in significantly smaller quantities than required, with supplies running out on average after just nine minutes. At 23 percent of aid drops, supplies were exhausted before the official opening time. 

Sky reported that 86 percent of distributions were announced to people in the area less than 30 minutes in advance, and that maps and instructions distributed to locals to navigate and access the sites were inaccurate or dangerous, including telling civilians trying to reach SDS2, 3 and 4 to congregate inside areas labeled live combat zones by Israel.

In addition, the congregation areas are typically some distance from the sites, causing surges when they open as people attempt to cover the open ground to access the aid.

The shortest distance from a waiting point to an SDS is 689 meters, at SDS4, approximately 10 minutes away on foot — more than the average time before supplies run out.

Sam Rose, director of operations in Gaza for the UN Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees, called the GHF’s system a “free-for-all.”

He told Sky: “What they’re doing is, they’re loading up the boxes on the ground and then people just rush in.”

Rose added: “They (the GHF) don’t know what they’re doing. They don’t have anyone working on these operations who has any experience of operating, of administering food distributions because anyone who did have that experience wouldn’t want to be part of it because this isn’t how you treat people.”

A group of charities and humanitarian groups on Tuesday condemned the GHF’s operations, saying they violate international principles.

More than 200 groups have called for the reinstatement of the previous aid distribution system overseen by the UN.


UN expert urges states to cut Israel trade ties over ‘apocalyptic’ Gaza situation

Updated 03 July 2025
Follow

UN expert urges states to cut Israel trade ties over ‘apocalyptic’ Gaza situation

  • Israel has rejected accusations of genocide in Gaza

GENEVA: A UN expert on Thursday called on states to impose an arms embargo and cut off trade and financial ties with Israel, which she alleged is waging a “genocidal campaign” in Gaza.

In a speech to the UN Human Rights Council, UN Special Rapporteur on the Occupied Palestinian Territories Francesca Albanese said: “The situation in the occupied Palestinian territory is apocalyptic.”

“Israel is responsible for one of the cruellest genocides in modern history,” she added, in a speech that was met with a burst of applause from the Geneva council.

Israel’s diplomatic mission in Geneva did not immediately respond to a request for comment on Albanese’s speech.

Israel has rejected accusations of genocide in Gaza, citing its right to self-defense following the deadly October 7, 2023, Hamas attack. Its delegate was not present in the room in line with a new policy to disengage with the council which Israel says has an antisemitic bias.

Albanese, one of dozens of independent UN-mandated experts to document abuses around the world, was presenting her latest report which named over 60 companies she said were involved in supporting Israeli settlements and military actions in Gaza.

“What I expose is not a list, it is a system, and that is to be addressed,” she told the council.

“We must reverse the tide,” she added, calling for states to impose a full arms embargo, suspend all trade agreements and ensure companies face legal consequences for their involvement in violations of international law.

Israel’s diplomatic mission in Geneva earlier this week said Albanese’s latest report was “legally groundless, defamatory and a flagrant abuse of her office.”


Gaza death toll rises: 82 killed, 38 while waiting for aid

Updated 03 July 2025
Follow

Gaza death toll rises: 82 killed, 38 while waiting for aid

  • Gaza’s Health Ministry said the number of Palestinians killed in Gaza has passed 57,000
  • More than 90% of Gaza’s 2.3 million population has been displaced, often multiple times

TEL AVIV: Airstrikes and shootings killed 82 Palestinians in Gaza overnight, including 38 while attempting to get much-needed humanitarian aid, hospitals and the Health Ministry said Thursday.

Israel’s military did not have immediate comment on the strikes.

Five people were killed while outside sites associated with the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation, the newly created, secretive American organization backed by Israel to feed the Gaza Strip’s population, while 33 others were killed waiting for aid trucks in other locations across the Gaza Strip.

Dozens of people were killed in airstrikes that pounded the Strip Wednesday night and Thursday morning, including 15 people killed in strikes that hit tents in the sprawling Muwasi zone, where many displaced Palestinians are sheltering, and a strike on a school in Gaza City sheltering displaced people.

Gaza’s Health Ministry said the number of Palestinians killed in Gaza has passed 57,000, including 223 missing people who have been declared dead. The ministry doesn’t differentiate between civilians and combatants in its death count but says that more than half of the dead are women and children.

The deaths come as Israel and Hamas inch closer to a possible ceasefire that would end the 21-month war.

Trump said Tuesday that Israel had agreed on terms for a 60-day ceasefire in Gaza and urged Hamas to accept the deal before conditions worsen. But Hamas’ response, which emphasized its demand that the war end, raised questions about whether the latest offer could materialize into an actual pause in fighting.

The Israeli military blames Hamas for the civilian casualties because it operates from populated areas. The military said it targeted Hamas militants and rocket launchers in northern Gaza that launched rockets towards Israel on Wednesday.

The war began on Oct. 7, 2023, when Hamas-led militants attacked southern Israel, killing 1,200 people and taking roughly 250 hostages.

The war has left the coastal Palestinian territory in ruins, with much of the urban landscape flattened in the fighting.

More than 90% of Gaza’s 2.3 million population has been displaced, often multiple times. And the war has sparked a humanitarian crisis in Gaza, leaving hundreds of thousands of people hungry.


Scorching summer heat deepens Gaza’s daily struggles

Updated 03 July 2025
Follow

Scorching summer heat deepens Gaza’s daily struggles

  • Temperatures are exceeding 30 degrees Celsius with displaced children sweltering inside cramped nylon tents

KHAN YOUNIS: For Rida Abu Hadayed, summer adds a new layer of misery to a daily struggle to survive in the war-ravaged Gaza Strip.

With temperatures exceeding 30 degrees Celsius (86 degrees Fahrenheit), daybreak begins with the cries of Hadayed’s seven children sweltering inside the displaced family’s cramped nylon tent. Outside, the humidity is unbearable.

The only way the 32-year-old mother can offer her children relief is by fanning them with a tray or bits of paper — whatever she can find. If she has water, she pours it over them, but that is an increasingly scarce resource.

“There is no electricity. There is nothing,” she said, her face beaded with sweat. “They cannot sleep. They keep crying all day until the sun sets.”

The heat in Gaza has intensified hardships for its 2 million residents. Reduced water availability, crippled sanitation networks, and shrinking living spaces threaten to cause illnesses to cascade through communities, aid groups have long warned.

The scorching summer coincides with a lack of clean water for the majority of Gaza’s population, most of whom are displaced in tented communities. Many Palestinians in the enclave must walk long distances to fetch water and ration each drop, limiting their ability to wash and keep cool.

“We are only at the beginning of summer,” Hadayed’s husband, Yousef, said. “And our situation is dire.”

Israel had blocked food, fuel, medicine and all other supplies from entering Gaza for nearly three months. It began allowing limited aid in May, but fuel needed to pump water from wells or operate desalination plants is still not getting into the territory.

With fuel supplies short, only 40 percent of drinking water production facilities are functioning in the Gaza Strip, according to a recent report by the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs. All face imminent collapse. Up to 93 percent of households face water shortages, the June report said.

The Hadayeds were displaced after evacuation orders forced them to leave eastern Khan Younis.

“Our lives in the tent are miserable. We spend our days pouring water over their heads and their skin,” Yousef Hadayed said. “Water itself is scarce. It is very difficult to get that water.”

UNICEF’s spokesperson recently said that if fuel supplies are not allowed to enter the enclave, children will die of thirst.

“Me and my children spend our days sweating,” said Reham Abu Hadayed, a 30-year-old relative of Rida Abu Hadayed who was also displaced from eastern Khan Younis. She worries about the health of her four children.

“I don’t have enough money to buy them medicine,” she said.

For Mohammed Al-Awini, 23, the heat is not the worst part. It’s the flies and mosquitoes that bombard his tent, especially at night.

Without adequate sewage networks, garbage piles up on streets, attracting insects and illness. The stench of decomposing trash wafts in the air.

“We are awake all night, dying from mosquito bites,” he said. “We are the most tired people in the world.”


Ailing South Sudan president prepares volatile succession

Updated 36 min 24 sec ago
Follow

Ailing South Sudan president prepares volatile succession

  • For months, Kiir has been manoeuvring to sideline rivals
  • The world’s youngest country, South Sudan has been plagued by poverty and violence since gaining independence in 2011

JUBA: With South Sudan’s President Salva Kiir undergoing medical tests abroad after years of rumors about his health, analysts say a long-gestating plan has been set in motion to secure his succession.

Kiir returned from at least 10 days in the United Arab Emirates on Wednesday, with state media saying he had been “exploring new avenues for economic cooperation.”

But members of his entourage, speaking on condition of anonymity, previously told AFP he was there for medical tests — reinforcing long-held concerns about the 73-year-old’s health.

The world’s youngest country, South Sudan has been plagued by poverty and violence since gaining independence in 2011, including a civil war that killed some 400,000 people in 2013-2018.

After a few relatively calm years, the country has been thrown back into turmoil in recent months, prompted, say analysts, by Kiir’s declining health and his efforts to install his heir-apparent, businessman Benjamin Bol Mel, in power.

Bol Mel is a controversial figure, who gained prominence as a construction magnate and was said to handle the Kiir family’s finances.

He was placed on a sanctions list by the United States in 2017 for corruption.

For months, Kiir has been manoeuvring to sideline rivals.

His old foe, Riek Machar, against whom he fought the civil war, was placed under house arrest in March and many of his political allies disappeared into detention.

Kiir’s forces have attacked Machar’s military bases and other armed groups drawn from his ethnic group, the Nuer.

More than 700 people were killed in clashes between January and March alone, according to the United Nations.

Rumours about Kiir’s health have long circulated but the topic is absolutely off-limits for discussion in official circles.

“If you want to visit a grave quickly, talk about it,” said a local activist, requesting anonymity for safety reasons.

Nonetheless, the frailty was obvious in April when Kiir hosted Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni, who walked briskly despite his 80 years while Kiir moved in tiny steps.

In May, the foreign ministry had to issue a statement assuring that the head of state was still alive following rumors to the contrary on social media.

State media footage of Kiir’s return from the UAE on Wednesday cut away every time he was about to take a step.

During his absence, it was Bol Mel — who was named second vice president in February and deputy head of the ruling party in May — who chaired last week’s cabinet meeting.

“It seems to be a script written a long time ago and being implemented in phases,” said Wani Michael, a former activist now in exile.

“They had to take away Riek Machar to pave the way for Bol Mel because... Riek would give Bol Mel a hard time,” he added.

In October, Kiir also fired his intelligence chief, Akol Koor, another potential rival who held that post for 13 years.

Bol Mel “has taken control of the security forces by installing loyalists. He has taken over the security and financial apparatus since last November-December,” said a diplomat based in Juba, also speaking on condition of anonymity.

Despite an uptick in violence, the moves have not triggered renewed war as many feared.

“It’s devastating on a humanitarian level, but it’s nothing compared to the colossal massacres of a few years ago when thousands died each month,” said the diplomat, adding that the government “has been fairly successful in subduing the various rebellions.”

Machar’s forces have barely retaliated to attacks and his party is split on the way forward.

But success is not guaranteed for Bol Mel, either, warned local analyst James Boboya.

“The government has not gained legitimacy at home or internationally,” he told AFP.

There is particular disillusionment at the failure to hold the country’s first-ever elections, which were again postponed last year to 2026.

“Elections are the only viable way for a peaceful transfer of power,” said Edmund Yakani, president of the Community Empowerment for Progress Organization, a local NGO.

“We need the power of our vote in shaping the future. Not the bullet, and not leaders imposed on us.”