Can Israeli PM Netanyahu achieve his stated war objectives with Rafah assault?

For the Netanyahu government, however, Rafah represents a last opportunity to declare the war won and, in the process, to ensure Netanyahu has a political future. (AFP). (AP)
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Updated 13 May 2024
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Can Israeli PM Netanyahu achieve his stated war objectives with Rafah assault?

  • Despite claim there are four brigades in Rafah, it is unclear how many operational fighters Hamas still has
  • Some Israeli analysts say Israel needs to make Hamas ideologically and politically irrelevant, not do the opposite

LONDON: This week, before-and-after imagery released by US commercial satellite company Planet Labs showed the extent of the damage inflicted in just one day by Israeli forces on the outskirts of Rafah, close to the Egyptian border.

This is not the city of Rafah itself — yet. Awaiting a resolution of the political standoff between their government and the US, which has threatened to stop supplying ammunition if Israel invades Rafah, the 98th Airborne and the 162nd Armored divisions are massing to the south of the city.

In the satellite imagery captured on Tuesday, groups of tanks can be seen in the vicinity of the Rafah crossing, which Israeli troops occupied and closed on Monday, and grouped in several other strategic locations.

While they are waiting, however, they have been laying waste to much of the surrounding infrastructure and indulging in some symbolic wanton vandalism: in a video released on Tuesday a tank rolls over a “I love Gaza” sign near the crossing.




Netanyahu has gambled his political future on two objectives tied to a continuation of the devastating and murderous assault on Gaza — the destruction of Hamas and the killing of its top commanders. (AFP)

The contrast between the satellite images taken on Monday and Tuesday is striking. In the course of one day, hundreds of homes, commercial buildings, agricultural plots and other structures on dozens of sites either side of the Salah Al-Din highway were destroyed.

“This,” said a spokesman for the Israeli government on Tuesday, “is the beginning of our mission to take out the last four Hamas brigades in Rafah.”

But although Netanyahu has gambled his political future on two objectives tied to a continuation of the devastating and murderous assault on Gaza — the destruction of Hamas and the killing of its top commanders — after seven months of all-out warfare those objectives seem increasingly unattainable.

Despite the Israeli claim that there are four brigades in Rafah, it is unclear exactly how many operational fighters Hamas still has, or exactly where they are. It is also not clear if they have chosen, as some commentators have suggested, to make a “last stand” in Rafah, or even, after seven months of war, if they have the weapons and ammunition necessary to do so.




Groups of tanks were seen in the vicinity of the Rafah crossing. (AFP)

Even less certain is the location of Hamas military leader Yahya Sinwar, from whom nothing has been heard since the invasion of Gaza began.

Sinwar, Israel’s public enemy number one, has become a ghost, so much so that on Thursday US National Security Communications Adviser John Kirby made a public plea for him to “come clean about what his intentions are.”

Writing in The Spectator this week, Middle East analyst Jonathan Spyer suggested that, “contrary to what Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu might wish, Sinwar, his brother Mohammed, and the Hamas military leader Mohammed Deif are almost certainly not currently besieged in a bunker in Rafah, surrounded and obliged to either agree to the Egyptian (ceasefire) proposal or be crushed beneath the treads of the 98th and the 162nd.”

In fact, added Spyer, director of research at the Middle East Forum, “it is not even certain if the Hamas leaders and their hostages are even still in the Rafah area, or ... in some other part of the strip.”

Gaza, although barely larger than the small Mediterranean island of Malta, has nevertheless proved to be a frustrating landscape for Israeli operations.




“The only way to defeat the Hamas ideology is with a better ideology, and that is to make the two-state solution real to Palestinians,” said Gershon Baskin. (AFP)

On Thursday it emerged that even before the Oct. 7 attack, Israel had tried, and failed, to assassinate both Sinwar and Al-Deif, the commander-in-chief of Hamas’ Al-Qassam Brigades.

In remarks made to a Jewish organization in the US and broadcast on Israeli television’s Channel 12, Israel’s former military chief of staff Aviv Kochavi said a perceived “change with Hamas” in 2021 had led to the decision to try to kill the two men.

“We tried, and it’s hard,” he was reported as having said.

“In a densely populated, heavily built-up area it is very hard. So, we had been working for months in order to procure the operation but we couldn’t.”

Kochavi also added his voice to the growing chorus in Israel critical of Netanyahu’s increasingly unpopular determination to continue military operations in Gaza.




Yahya Sinwar, Israel’s public enemy number one, has become a ghost. (AFP)

“I don’t think there is a way to bring back the hostages without halting for the time being the war,” he said. Furthermore, he added, “I don’t think we can achieve complete victory in months — forget it, it will take years.”

For the Netanyahu government, however, Rafah represents a stage for political theatre — a last opportunity to declare the war won and, in the process, to ensure Netanyahu has a political future.

INNUMBERS

• 120 People taken hostage by Hamas on Oct. 7 still unaccounted for.

• 252 Israelis and foreigners taken hostage in the attack, according to Israel.

• 80,000 People known to have fled Rafah since last Monday after Israeli warning.

“They're looking for a victory,” said Yossi Mekelberg, a professor of international relations and an associate fellow of the Middle East and North Africa Program at London-based policy institute Chatham House.

“They are looking for a photo op: ‘Here is his head, we’ve cut off the head of Hamas, now it’s all over’.”

Although the message from Biden “is very clear — for the United States to even suggest imposing an arms ban on Israel is a huge thing,” Netanyahu is also facing a potential internal revolt by his right-wing cabinet members, such as National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Givr and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, who oppose any ceasefire with Hamas.




Despite the Israeli claim that there are four brigades in Rafah, it is unclear exactly how many operational fighters Hamas still has. (AFP)

Ultra-religious, “they are on a different planet,” said Mekelberg. “It’s not between them and other human beings, it's between them and God. And they are telling Netanyahu if he compromises too much with Hamas they will leave the government, and that there is no point in them staying in government if we don't enter Rafah.”

Whether they would find Sinwar there is anybody’s guess, says Gershon Baskin, a former adviser to Israeli, Palestinian and international prime ministers on the Middle East peace process.

“I'm sure that he's not just sitting and waiting,” he said. “He has certainly booby-trapped tunnels and bunkers in the whole area between Rafah and Khan Younis, and maybe they also have access to places north of there. We don’t know.”

But if Sinwar is in Rafah, “from my experience with the man there is no way he is going to surrender. He will fight to the death. I think that he believes that he will never survive this war. He’s not afraid of death. In fact, he believes that it’s his duty to become a martyr and he will try to kill as many Israelis along the way as possible.”




For the Netanyahu government, however, Rafah represents a stage for political theatre. (Reuters)

According to Baskin, an all-out ground attack on Rafah would be “catastrophic, for any hostages and the civilian population. There’s no doubt about it. I have heard there are about 40,000 people left in the quadrant that Israel said they wanted people to move out of, and you have another 1.2 million at least in the city of Rafah and its surroundings.”

Humanitarian considerations aside, Mekelberg believes that, even if Rafah is attacked and razed to the ground, Sinwar is killed and victory declared, assaulting the city would be a strategic mistake — and would not deliver the hoped-for existential blow to Hamas.

“The main threat to Israel from Hamas comes from its ideology and politics, not from its military,” he told Arab News.




The contrast between the satellite images taken on Monday and Tuesday is striking. (AFP/Maxar Technologies)

“The military you can deal with. But the Israelis need to convince people that this ideology doesn’t serve the Gazan people or Palestinian people generally, and that there is an alternative that offers hope, and it is doing very badly at that right now.

“Israel needs to make Hamas ideologically and politically irrelevant and it is doing exactly the opposite, making them more and more relevant.”

Baskin agrees.

“The only way to defeat the Hamas ideology is with a better ideology, and that is to make the two-state solution real to Palestinians, to show them that their fight, their struggle for independence and dignity, is on the road to victory,” he told Arab News.

That, he added, “is the only way to defeat Hamas” and, with the right leadership in Israel, and an alternative to Mahmoud Abbas for the Palestinians, doing so would be “easy.”

“All Israel has to do is declare that it recognizes the state of Palestine, and then every other country in the world would do that as well,” he said.




“The main threat to Israel from Hamas comes from its ideology and politics, not from its military,” Yossi Mekelberg told Arab News. (AFP)

“Then what I would do is organize a regional conference, including all of our neighbors, hoping that the Saudis would participate, and asking the Americans and Europeans to join in but not to run the show, and negotiate borders and Jerusalem and refugees and economic relations.”

The stumbling block to all this, he says, is Netanyahu, “who since 2009 has done everything he can to avoid the possibility of a two-state solution and for whom this war is definitely about his own personal political interest.”

 


Israel military says striking Hezbollah targets in east Lebanon

Updated 3 sec ago
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Israel military says striking Hezbollah targets in east Lebanon

  • Israel's military said: “Moments ago, Israeli Air Force fighter jets... began numerous strikes toward Hezbollah terror targets in the area of Beqaa, Lebanon”

JERUSALEM: Israel’s military said it was striking targets belonging to Hezbollah’s elite Radwan force in eastern Lebanon on Tuesday, the latest attack despite a ceasefire between Israel and the Iran-backed militant group.
“Moments ago, Israeli Air Force fighter jets... began numerous strikes toward Hezbollah terror targets in the area of Beqaa, Lebanon,” it said in a statement.
“The military compounds that were struck were used by the Hezbollah terrorist organization for training and exercising terrorists to plan and carry out terrorist attacks against (Israeli) troops and the State of Israel,” it added.
The statement said an Israeli military operation in September 2024 had “eliminated” Radwan force commanders in Beirut and southern Lebanon, but that “since then the unit has been operating to reestablish its capabilities.”
“The storage of weapons and the activities of the Hezbollah terrorist organization at these sites constitute a blatant violation of the understandings between Israel and Lebanon and constitute a future threat to the State of Israel,” it added.
Israel has repeatedly bombed Lebanon despite a November ceasefire that sought to end over a year of hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah, including two months of all-out war that left the group severely weakened.
Under the ceasefire deal, Hezbollah was to pull its fighters back north of the Litani river, about 30 kilometers (20 miles) from the Israeli border, leaving the Lebanese army and United Nations peacekeepers as the only armed parties in the region.
Israel was required to fully withdraw its troops from the country but has kept them in five places it deems strategic.


Drone attack shuts Iraq oil field run by US company

Updated 28 min 3 sec ago
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Drone attack shuts Iraq oil field run by US company

  • The Kurdistan natural resources ministry said the Sarsang oil field in Duhok province was hit
  • Strike called ‘an act of terrorism against the Kurdistan Region’s vital economic infrastructure’

IRBIL, Iraq: A drone strike forced a US company to suspend operations at an oil field in Iraq’s autonomous Kurdistan region Tuesday, amid a wave of similar attacks targeting the region’s energy infrastructure.

The Kurdistan natural resources ministry said the Sarsang oil field in Duhok province was hit, calling the strike “an act of terrorism against the Kurdistan Region’s vital economic infrastructure.”

The attack followed a similar drone strike a day earlier in neighboring Irbil province.

HKN Energy, the US company, said Tuesday’s blast occurred at about 7:00 a.m. (0400 GMT) at one of its production facilities in the Sarsang field.

“Operations at the affected facility have been suspended until the site is secured,” it said in a statement.

A fire broke out following the explosion, which did not cause any casualties.

Emergency response teams have contained the blaze, the company said later in an update.

In the past few weeks, there has been a spate of drone and rocket attacks mostly affecting Kurdistan.

Long plagued by conflict, Iraq has frequently experienced such attacks, often linked to regional proxy struggles.

The explosion in Sarsang field occurred a day after three explosive-laden drone attacks were reported in Kurdistan, with one drone shot down near Irbil airport, which hosts US troops, and another two hitting the Khurmala oil field causing material damage.

There has been no claim of responsibility for those attacks.

But, on July 3, the Kurdistan authorities said a drone was downed near Irbil airport, blaming the Hashed Al-Shaabi – a coalition of pro-Iran former paramilitaries now integrated into the regular armed forces.

The federal government in Baghdad rejected the accusation.

The latest attacks come at a time of heightened tension between Baghdad and Irbil over oil exports, with a major pipeline through Turkiye shut since 2023 over legal disputes and technical issues.

In May, Iraq’s federal authorities filed a complaint against the autonomous Kurdistan region for signing gas contracts with two US companies, including HKN Energy.


Syrian forces enter Druze city after deadly clashes

Updated 13 min 27 sec ago
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Syrian forces enter Druze city after deadly clashes

  • A curfew was to be imposed on the southern city of Sweida in a bid to halt the violence
  • Syrian troops had begun moving toward the city on Monday, taking control of at least one Druze village

DAMASCUS: Syrian government forces entered the majority Druze city of Sweida on Tuesday, the interior ministry said, aiming to end clashes with Bedouin tribes that have killed nearly 100 people.

The southern city had been under the control of armed factions from the Druze minority, whose religious leaders said they had approved the deployment of Damascus’s troops and called on fighters to hand over their weapons.

A curfew was to be imposed on the southern city in a bid to halt the violence, which erupted at the weekend and has since spread across Sweida governorate.

Government forces said they intervened to separate the two sides but ended up taking control of several Druze areas around Sweida, an AFP correspondent reported.

Military columns were seen advancing toward Sweida on Tuesday morning, with heavy artillery deployed nearby.

The defense ministry said later that they had entered the city, and urged people to “stay home and report any movements of outlaw groups.”

An AFP correspondent heard explosions and gunshots as soldiers moved into Sweida.

Troops had begun heading toward the city on Monday, taking control of at least one Druze village, with one Druze faction saying talks were underway with the Damascus government.

The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights war monitor reported 99 people killed since the fighting erupted on Sunday — 60 Druze, including four civilians, 18 Bedouin fighters, 14 security personnel and seven unidentified people in military uniforms.

The defense ministry reported 18 deaths among the ranks of the armed forces.

While Druze religious authorities had called on Monday evening for a ceasefire and said they didn’t oppose the central government, Sheikh Hikmat Al-Hijri, one of the three Druze spiritual leaders in Sweida, opposed the arrival of the security forces and called for “international protection.”

Israel, which has attempted to portray itself as a protector of the Druze in Syria and sees them as potential allies, bombed several Syrian tanks on Monday.

The strikes were “a clear warning to the Syrian regime – we will not allow harm to be done to the Druze in Syria,” said Defense Minister Israel Katz, whose country has its own Druze population.

The fighting underscores the challenges facing interim leader Ahmad Al-Sharaa, whose Islamist forces ousted president Bashar Assad in December after nearly 14 years of civil war.

Syria’s pre-war Druze population was estimated at around 700,000, many of them concentrated in Sweida province.

The Druze, followers of an esoteric religion that split from Shiite Islam, are mainly found in Syria, Lebanon and Israel.

Following deadly clashes with government forces in April and May, local and religious leaders reached an agreement with Damascus under which Druze fighters had been providing security in the province.

“We lived in a state of extreme terror – the shells were falling randomly,” said Abu Taym, a 51-year-old father.

Amal, a 46-year-old woman, said: “We fear a repeat of the coastal scenario,” referring to massacres in March of more than 1,700 mostly Alawite civilians in northwest Syria, where groups affiliated with the government were blamed for most of the killings.

“We are not against the state, but we are against surrendering our weapons without a state that treats everyone the same,” she added.

In a post on X, Syrian Defense Minister Murhaf Abu Qasra urged his troops to “protect your fellow citizens” from “outlaw gangs,” and to “restore stability to Sweida.”

The violence began on Sunday when Bedouin gunmen abducted a Druze vegetable vendor on the highway to Damascus, prompting retaliatory kidnappings.

The Observatory said members of Bedouin tribes, who are Sunni Muslims, had sided with security forces during earlier confrontations with the Druze.

Bedouin and Druze factions have a longstanding feud in Sweida, and violence occasionally erupts between the two sides.


Netanyahu’s coalition is rattled as ultra-Orthodox party announces exit over military draft law

Updated 15 July 2025
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Netanyahu’s coalition is rattled as ultra-Orthodox party announces exit over military draft law

  • United Torah Judaism’s two factions said they were bolting the government over disagreements surrounding a bill that would codify broad military draft exemptions
  • The issue has long divided Jewish Israelis, most of whom are required to enlist, a rift that has only widened since the war in Gaza began

TEL AVIV: An Israeli ultra-Orthodox party that has been a key governing partner of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said early Tuesday it was leaving the coalition government, threatening to destabilize the Israeli leader’s rule at a pivotal time in the war in Gaza.

United Torah Judaism’s two factions said they were bolting the government over disagreements surrounding a bill that would codify broad military draft exemptions for their constituents, many of whom study Jewish texts instead of enlist to the military. The issue has long divided Jewish Israelis, most of whom are required to enlist, a rift that has only widened since the war in Gaza began and demands on military manpower grew.

The departure of a party that has long served as a kingmaker in Israeli politics doesn’t immediately threaten Netanyahu’s rule. But, once it comes into effect within 48 hours, it will leave the Israeli leader with a slim majority in a government that could now more heavily rely on the whims of two far-right parties. Those parties oppose concessions in ceasefire negotiations with Hamas and have themselves quit or threatened to quit the government over moves to end or even pause the war in Gaza.

The political shake-up comes as Israel and Hamas are discussing the terms of a truce for the 21-month war in Gaza. Despite heavy pressure by the US, Israel’s top ally, and mediators Egypt and Qatar, there is no breakthrough yet in the talks. A recurring sticking point has been whether the war ends as part of any truce and Netanyahu’s far-right parties oppose ending the war while Hamas remains intact.

United Torah Judaism’s departure has a window of 48 hours before becoming official, meaning Netanyahu can still find ways to satisfy the party and bring it back into the coalition. But Shuki Friedman, vice president of the Jewish People Policy Institute, said the gaps between the draft law currently on the table and the demands of the party are still wide, making a compromise unlikely during that time.

Friedman said the party’s departure doesn’t immediately put Netanyahu’s rule at risk. A vote to dissolve parliament, that would bring down the government and trigger new elections, can’t be brought by the opposition until the end of the year because of procedural reasons. And a summer recess for Parliament, beginning later this month and stretching until October, gives Netanyahu another attempt to bridge the gaps and bring the party back into the coalition.

Cabinet Minister Miki Zohar, from Netanyahu’s Likud party, said he was hopeful the party could be coaxed back to the coalition. “God willing, everything will be fine,” he said.

A Likud spokesman did not immediately respond to a request for comment.


Egypt grand museum delay puts tourism hopes on hold

Updated 15 July 2025
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Egypt grand museum delay puts tourism hopes on hold

  • The vast museum, two decades in the making, has faced repeated delays
  • Tourism accounts for about 10 percent of Egypt’s workforce, but the sector has struggled

CAIRO: In the shadow of the Grand Egyptian Museum, souvenir shop owner Mona has been readying for the tourist boom she hoped the long-awaited opening would bring – now once again out of reach.

“I had bet everything on this opening,” she said from her shop, just steps from the iconic pyramids of Giza, which the much-anticipated museum overlooks.

Originally scheduled to fully open this month, the museum was expected to attract up to five million visitors annually, fueling optimism across Cairo’s battered tourism sector.

“We planned our entire summer and fall packages around the museum opening,” said Nadine Ahmed, a 28-year-old agent with Time Travel tours.

“But with group cancelations, refunds and route changes, we’ve lost tens of thousands of dollars.”

Though parts of the museum have been open for months, the main draw – the treasures of Tutankhamun – will remain under wraps until the official launch.

Less than three weeks before its July 3 opening, the government announced another delay, this time pushing the landmark event to the final quarter of the year.

Prime Minister Mostafa Madbouly cited regional security concerns and the desire to host an event of “global scale.”

The vast museum, two decades in the making, has faced repeated delays – from political upheaval and economic crises to the COVID-19 pandemic.

Ahead of the expected launch, Mona, who asked to be identified by her first name only, took out a loan to renovate her store and stock up on goods inspired by the museum’s collection.

A few streets away, Mohamed Mamdouh Khattab, 38, prepared months in advance, hiring and training extra staff and expanding his inventory.

“The opening of the museum is a key milestone,” said Khattab, who owns a sprawling bazaar of handcrafted jewelry and ancient replicas.

“It’s a project that should have been launched a long time ago,” said the vendor, whose family has been in the industry since the 1970s.

Tourism accounts for about 10 percent of Egypt’s workforce, but the sector has struggled – from the fallout of the 2011 Arab Spring to militant attacks and the COVID-19 shutdown.

Still, signs of recovery have emerged: Egypt welcomed 3.9 million tourists in the first quarter of 2025, up 25 percent from the same period last year – itself a record.

At a Giza papyrus workshop, 30-year-old tour guide Sara Mahmoud hopes the opening will revive visitor numbers.

“Big openings have brought a lot of tourism to Egypt before,” she said, pointing to the 2021 Pharaohs’ Golden Parade and the reopening of the Avenue of the Sphinxes.

“These events get people excited – we saw the crowds coming in.”

Such momentum could make a real difference, said Ragui Assaad, an economist at the University of Minnesota.

“Any initiative that directly increases foreign exchange earnings is likely to have a good return on investment,” he said.

“If you compare it with all the other mega-projects, which do not increase foreign exchange earnings... this is a far better project.”

He was referring to a sweeping infrastructure drive under President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi, including the construction of a massive new administrative capital east of Cairo.

The stakes are high: since 2022, Egypt’s currency has lost two-thirds of its value, squeezing household budgets and straining every layer of the economy.

“There were days when I sold just one bracelet,” Mona lamented, thinking back to the years when “tourists arrived in droves.”