Pakistan’s benchmark share index touched a lifetime high on Wednesday, breaching the key level of 75,000, on hopes that easing inflation could pave the way for interest rate cuts as early as June.
Still attractive stock valuations, expectations of more foreign inflows, and the start of talks with the IMF on a new loan program added to the bullish sentiment.
The index was trading at 75,013 points at 0531 GMT, up 0.7 percent, after hitting an intraday high of 75,115. It has surged 80 percent over the past year, and it is up 16.1 percent year-to-date after an IMF rescue last summer helped the government avert a debt default.
On Monday, the index closed at a record of 73,822, up 1 percent.
Mohammed Sohail, CEO of Topline Securities, said Wednesday’s gains were fueled by foreign fund buying.
On Tuesday, the MSCI index added a Pakistani bank, National Bank of Pakistan, to the MSCI frontier market index. Its shares rose 1.6 percent on Wednesday, outperforming the benchmark index.
“We estimate Pakistan’s weight will also increase, thereby having the potential to attract more passive foreign funds,” said Sohail.
The market is picking up steam due to an anticipated decline in inflation to 13.5 percent for May and expectations of a monetary easing cycle starting in June, said Shahid Habib, CEO of Arif Habib Limited.
Investors were also optimism about discussions on a new International Monetary Fund financing program and the economic roadmap ahead, Habib said.
Pakistan last month completed a short-term, $3 billion IMF program, but the government of Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif has stressed the need for a fresh, longer-term program.
An IMF mission is in Pakistan to discuss the financial year 2025 budget, policies, and reforms under a potential new program.
Wall Street bank Citi expects Pakistan to reach a four-year agreement with the IMF worth up to $8 billion by end-July, and recommends going long on the country’s 2027 international bond.