‘Change’ on the cards for UK as Sunak calls July election

The owner of a luxury apartment in Santa Monica, California, may soon be paying it a rare visit come July. This is the view of many British observers after the dramatic decision of this owner, who happens to be British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, to call a general election for July 4.

The shock is that Sunak has opted to go for this nuclear option so early, when the economy has yet to recover and the Conservatives lack a compelling narrative that might allow them to overturn their huge and consistent deficit in the polls. The Tories endured a torrid time in the local elections at the beginning of May. Most had expected the PM to pick a date in the autumn. Many Conservative MPs were openly seething. The public appeared generally content to bring an end to the interminable election season.

British politics has been as unpredictable and fickle as the English weather for a decade or so now. Yet, this time, Keir Starmer is the overwhelming favorite to become King Charles’ third prime minister. He still needs a jaw-dropping 12 percent swing to get a majority of just one, but the Tories look finished, bereft of ideas. The country appears to be craving change.

It will be a race in which the two leaders, Sunak and Starmer, will rarely inspire, as they are both short on charisma. But voting is often a gut issue, an emotional decision, and how the electorate sees the leaders will matter hugely.

It has been 14 years since Labour was in power. At the last general election in 2019, the party did disastrously, achieving its worst election result in almost a century. The Tories now trail Labour by 20 points in the polls and this has been pretty much the case ever since Sunak came into office following the crashing of the British economy under his predecessor, Liz Truss. Her 45 days in power will haunt the Tory election bid.

British politics has been as unpredictable and fickle as the English weather for a decade or so now

Chris Doyle

An ugly campaign may be in the offing. The Conservatives have given notice that they will fight on culture war issues, with immigration at the heart of their messaging. Recent anti-Muslim comments by senior Conservatives show that a hurricane of Islamophobia could be imminent.

Starmer claims the British people want change and has pledged to “return Britain to the service of working people.” Labour will portray the Tories as chaotic and without a plan. In contrast, Labour claims that it will return stability and calm. The word “change” will be bandied around consistently during this six-week campaign. Starmer will also tap into the widespread view that Britain is broken, that key services are just not working.

What will be the key issues? The economy is the top concern for voters and has been consistently, not least since COVID-19. Inflation was at 11 percent just two years ago. It is now back down to 2.3 percent, yet prices are still more than 20 percent higher than they were in 2021. Real wages are hardly above where they were in 2010. Tories will promise tax cuts, but it is doubtful this will have a great effect. Labour will not follow this and has pledged to borrow to invest in the green economy.

Immigration is what the Tories will want to focus on. The trouble is that their anti-immigration plans have not been very successful. Small boat crossings across the English Channel, which decreased by a third in 2023, have increased in recent times. This failure is one reason the highly anti-immigrant Reform UK party could fare well and undermine Tory hopes.

Labour will, as ever, push for health to be a centerpiece of the campaign. Waiting lists are 300,000 higher than when Sunak pledged to reduce them.

Anti-Muslim comments by senior Conservatives show that a hurricane of Islamophobia could be imminent

Chris Doyle

There should be a vigorous debate on Britain’s place in the world. That this may not happen is perhaps an indication of the increasingly isolationist attitude of many voters. But it matters. First and foremost, eight years after voting to leave the EU, just what is Britain’s relationship with the EU going to be? Labour will articulate a position that the country must get closer again without rejoining. Secondly, how will relations with the US fare going forward? This has not always been easy in recent years. Much will depend on November’s election across the Atlantic.

Gaza will be an issue in certain constituencies. Expect a fair number of independent candidates to challenge, with Palestine a key theme. A significant portion of the core Labour voting base has been angered by the party leadership’s tepid response to Israeli war crimes. They may punish the party.

Anything but a Labour victory would be a shock. The real question is how large a majority Starmer will get. He will want to get way past the magic mark of 326 MPs that is necessary for a majority. Will he have a large enough majority to govern freely or will he have to win over all wings of his party or even other center-left parties?

• Chris Doyle is director of the Council for Arab-British Understanding in London. X: @Doylech