WEF warns of political risk, says global economy is brightening

Despite escalating challenges for businesses and policymakers, the report identified technological transformation, artificial intelligence, and the green and energy transitions as key contributors to global growth. (WEF/File)
Short Url
Updated 29 May 2024
Follow

WEF warns of political risk, says global economy is brightening

  • Cautioned optimism underscores challenges for businesses and policymakers
  • MENA region expected to improve despite regional political tensions

LONDON: The World Economic Forum said on Wednesday that the global economy is poised to improve or remain stable this year, but it also warned of potential dangers stemming from geopolitical and domestic tensions.

“The latest Chief Economists Outlook points to welcome but tentative signs of improvement in the global economic climate,” said Saadia Zahidi, managing director of the WEF.

“This underscores the increasingly complex landscape that leaders are navigating. There is an urgent need for policymaking that not only looks to revive the engines of the global economy but also seeks to put in place the foundations of more inclusive, sustainable and resilient growth.”

The report highlighted that while the proportion of economists who feel optimistic about the economic outlook nearly doubled from the previous survey conducted in January, 97 percent of respondents anticipate that geopolitics will contribute to global economic volatility this year.

Furthermore, 83 percent said domestic politics would be a source of volatility in 2024, a year when nearly half the world’s population will be voting.

Experts predicted a positive outlook for the US and Asian economies, driven by decreasing inflation and robust markets.

The Middle East and North Africa region is also expected to experience moderate growth, with slight improvements since the previous survey, despite unstable political developments due to the ongoing Gaza conflict.

Despite escalating challenges for businesses and policymakers, the report identified technological transformation, artificial intelligence, and the green and energy transitions as key contributors to global growth, also driven by looser or unchanged fiscal and monetary policies.

“Despite some brightening of the near-term growth outlook, the latest results point to growing challenges for businesses and policymakers,” the WEF said in a press release.

“However, the views on the long-term prospects for the global economy are encouraging, with many policy opportunities to boost growth across high and low-income economies.”


In post-budget press conference, Pakistan finmin says tariff reforms key to export-led growth

Updated 7 sec ago
Follow

In post-budget press conference, Pakistan finmin says tariff reforms key to export-led growth

  • Muhammad Aurangzeb calls the tariff overhaul a major reform not seen in over 30 years
  • He says Pakistan needed to take such steps if it wanted to have an export-led economy

KARACHI: Federal Minister for Finance and Revenue Muhammad Aurangzeb on Wednesday underscored the significance of sweeping tariff reforms built into the federal budget, calling them a structural economic shift aimed at making exports more competitive and lowering the cost of importing raw materials to support export-led growth.

The minister highlighted the development during a post-budget press conference after presenting the finance bill in the National Assembly a day earlier. The proposed federal budget for FY2025-26 includes a total outlay of Rs17.57 trillion ($62 billion), while promising a 4.2% growth target and a reduction in the fiscal deficit to 3.9% of GDP.

Aurangzeb told journalists in Islamabad the government had removed additional customs duties on 4,000 out of 7,000 total tariff lines and reduced base customs duties on 2,700 tariff lines. Of these, 2,000 tariff lines are directly linked to raw materials and intermediate goods used by exporters.

“This is a big reform that has not been done over the last 30 years,” he said, adding the objective was to lower production costs for exporters and enable them to better compete in international markets.

“We are going to fundamentally change the DNA of the economy so that when we go toward growth, we don’t get into a dollar situation, we don’t get into a balance of payments problem,” he said. “We can continue to grow at a certain pace, which is export-led.”

Defending the reforms against criticism that they may lower revenue, the minister argued the long-term gains for the export sector outweigh short-term fiscal concerns.

“If we want an export-led economy, these are the steps we must take,” he added.

Aurangzeb also emphasized new legislation and enforcement tools, saying they were going to be key in plugging leaks and ensuring compliance.

“We have laws and taxes,” he said, “but without enforcement, they don’t work — and that’s what we’re focused on this year.”


Egypt allocates Red Sea land for issuing bonds and lowering debt

Updated 11 June 2025
Follow

Egypt allocates Red Sea land for issuing bonds and lowering debt

  • 174 square km plot allocated on Red Sea coast to finance ministry

CAIRO: Egypt has allocated a 174 square km plot on the Red Sea coast to the finance ministry for use in Islamic bond issuances and in efforts to lower the country’s public debt, the official gazette said on Tuesday.
The gazette did not elaborate on how the land would be used, but Egypt, which has been mired in a slow-burning economic crisis, signed a $35 billion deal with the UAE early last year to develop a 170-square-km tract along the Mediterranean coast.
Since then, Egypt has been seeking similar large-scale investments as it tries to overcome the economic crisis.
It has been in talks with Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Kuwait in a bid to attract major investments, according to investment bankers and news reports.
In tandem, Egypt also plans to issue $2 billion in sukuks, or Islamic bonds, in 2025, Finance Minister Ahmed Kouchouk told Reuters in April.


Abu Dhabi expects more rapid growth for its financial center

Updated 11 June 2025
Follow

Abu Dhabi expects more rapid growth for its financial center

  • New operating licenses increased 67% in the first quarter
  • Number of firms registered in the center rose by 32% last year

LONDON: The rush of financial firms setting up in Abu Dhabi to tap the emirate’s wealth funds and Middle East markets will continue at pace, the official in charge of expanding its financial hub has predicted.
Abu Dhabi, which holds 90 percent of the UAE’s oil reserves, has accelerated efforts to diversify its economy, leaning on its vast sovereign funds that together manage almost $2 trillion of capital.
Abu Dhabi Global Markets still lags Dubai, but the number of firms registered in the center rose by 32 percent last year, and the amount of assets managed by firms there grew 245 percent, as the likes of BlackRock, Morgan Stanley, AXA, PGIM and hedge fund Marshall Wace all set up or registered funds there.
Earlier on Tuesday, Harrison Street, a US firm focused on alternative real estate assets with about $56 billion in assets under management, said it was opening an office in Abu Dhabi.
The center reported last week that new operating licenses increased 67 percent in the first quarter of this year, taking the total number of firms there past 2,380.
“We still have very strong growth,” ADGM’s Chief Market Development Officer, Arvind Ramamurthy said, noting that the pipeline of new firms looked strong for the rest of the year, but refrained from giving a forecast for asset growth.
“Will it be 245 percent again this year? I wish. Let’s see,” he said in an interview late on Monday.
Firms from Japan, India, and China are also setting up in growing numbers, including asset managers and financial institutions, as well as crypto and artificial intelligence firms, Ramamurthy said, providing no further details.
With cryptocurrency regulations in place since 2018, Abu Dhabi has become a major center for such investment, with sector heavyweights such as Circle and Coinbase represented there, while Abu Dhabi-backed investment group MGX has recently invested $2 billion worth of crypto tokens — issued by US President Donald Trump’s World Liberty Financial venture — in the world’s biggest crypto exchange, Binance.


Oil demand growth to continue, no peak in sight, OPEC Secretary General says

Updated 11 June 2025
Follow

Oil demand growth to continue, no peak in sight, OPEC Secretary General says

CALGARY: Oil demand growth will remain robust over the next two and a half decades as the world population grows, OPEC Secretary General Haitham Al-Ghais has said.

The organization expects a 24 percent increase in the world’s energy needs between now and 2050, with oil demand surpassing 120 million barrels per day over that time period.

That estimate is in line with the group’s 2024 World Oil Outlook.

“There is no peak in oil demand on the horizon,” Al-Ghais said, speaking at the Global Energy Show in Calgary, Alberta.

He said that OPEC admired what Canada’s oil industry has done to increase its oil output in recent years.

OPEC is unwinding its output cuts at a faster pace than originally anticipated, lifting production by 411,000 barrels per day for May, June and July.

The increases, along with concerns that US President Donald Trump’s trade war will weaken the global economy, have pressured oil prices in recent months.

The US Energy Information Administration said it expected Brent oil prices to fall near $60 a barrel by the end of the year and average $59 a barrel next year, hitting US oil production.

Al-Ghais also said OPEC welcomed recent pushback against what he referred to as unrealistic climate goals, stressing the need to reduce emissions but not pick and choose between energy sources.


Oil Updates — crude gains while markets assess US-China trade talks outcome

Updated 11 June 2025
Follow

Oil Updates — crude gains while markets assess US-China trade talks outcome

  • Markets cautious on US-China trade talks outcome
  • Rising supplies remain a key focus

TOKYO: Oil prices softened on Wednesday as markets assessed the outcome of US-China trade talks, yet to be reviewed by President Donald Trump, with weak oil demand from China and OPEC+ production increases weighing on the market.

Brent crude futures declined 15 cents, or 0.2 percent, to trade at $66.72 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate crude fell 10 cents, or 0.2 percent, to $64.88 at 9:44 a.m. Saudi time.

US and Chinese officials agreed on a framework to put their trade truce back on track and resolve China’s export restrictions on rare earth minerals and magnets, US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said on Tuesday at the conclusion of two days of intense negotiations in London. The two countries are world’s two largest economies and oil consumers.

“The current (price) corrections can be attributed to a mix of technical profit-taking and caution leading up to the US-China (official) announcement,” said Phillip Nova, senior market analyst Priyanka Sachdeva.

Trump will be briefed on the outcome before approving it, Lutnick added.

“In terms of what it means for crude oil, I think it removes some downside risks, particularly to the Chinese economy and steadies the ship for the US economy — both of which should be supportive for crude oil demand and the price,” said Tony Sycamore, a market analyst for IG.

On the supply side, OPEC+, which includes the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries plus allies such as Russia, plans to increase oil production by 411,000 barrels per day in July as it looks to unwind production cuts for a fourth straight month, with some analysts not expecting regional demand to soak up these excess barrels.

“Greater oil demand within OPEC+ economies – most notably Saudi Arabia – could offset additional supply from the group over the coming months and support oil prices,” said Capital Economics’ climate and commodities economist Hamad Hussain in a note.

“However, given that any boost to demand will be seasonal, we still think that Brent crude prices will fall to $60 (a barrel) by the end of this year.”

Later on Wednesday, markets will be focusing on the weekly US oil inventories report from the Energy Information Administration, the statistical arm of the US Department of Energy.

US crude oil stocks fell by 370,000 barrels last week, according to market sources who cited American Petroleum Institute figures on Tuesday.

Analysts polled by Reuters on Monday expected that the EIA report will show US crude oil stockpiles fell by 2 million barrels in the week to June 6, while distillate and gasoline inventories likely rose.