The rate Earth is warming hit an all-time high in 2023 with 92 percent of last year’s surprising record-shattering heat caused by humans, top scientists calculated.
The group of 57 scientists from around the world used United Nations-approved methods to examine what’s behind last year’s deadly burst of heat. They said even with a faster warming rate they don’t see evidence of significant acceleration in human-caused climate change beyond increased fossil fuel burning.
Last year’s record temperatures were so unusual that scientists have been debating what’s behind the big jump and whether climate change is accelerating or if other factors are in play.
“If you look at this world accelerating or going through a big tipping point, things aren’t doing that,” study lead author Piers Forster, a Leeds University climate scientist, said. “Things are increasing in temperature and getting worse in sort of exactly the way we predicted.”
It’s pretty much explained by the buildup of carbon dioxide from rising fossil fuel use, he and a co-author said.
Last year the rate of warming hit 0.26 degrees Celsius (0.47 degrees Fahrenheit) per decade — up from 0.25 degrees Celsius (0.45 degrees Fahrenheit) the year before. That’s not a significant difference, though it does make this year’s rate the highest ever, Forster said.
Still, outside scientists said this report highlights an ever more alarming situation.
“Choosing to act on climate has become a political talking point but this report should be a reminder to people that in fact it is fundamentally a choice to save human lives,” said University of Wisconsin climate scientist Andrea Dutton, who wasn’t part of the international study team. “To me, that is something worth fighting for.”
The team of authors — formed to provide annual scientific updates between the every seven- to eight-year major UN scientific assessments — determined last year was 1.43 degrees Celsius warmer than the 1850 to 1900 average with 1.31 degrees of that coming from human activity. The other 8 percent of the warming is due mostly to El Nino, the natural and temporary warming of the central Pacific that changes weather worldwide and also a freak warming along the Atlantic and just other weather randomness.
On a larger 10-year time frame, which scientists prefer to single years, the world has warmed about 1.19 degrees Celsius (2.14 degrees Fahrenheit) since pre-industrial times, the report in the journal Earth System Science Data found.
The report also said that as the world keeps using coal, oil and natural gas, Earth is likely to reach the point in 4.5 years that it can no longer avoid crossing the internationally accepted threshold for warming: 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit ).
That fits with earlier studies projecting Earth being committed or stuck to at least 1.5 degrees by early 2029 if emission trajectories don’t change. The actual hitting of 1.5 degrees could be years later, but it would be inevitable if all that carbon is used, Forster said.
It’s not the end of the world or humanity if temperatures blow past the 1.5 limit, but it will be quite bad, scientists said. Past UN studies show massive changes to Earth’s ecosystem are more likely to kick in between 1.5 and 2 degrees Celsius of warming, including eventual loss of the planet’s coral reefs, Arctic sea ice, species of plants and animals — along with nastier extreme weather events that kill people.
Last year’s temperature rise was more than just a little jump. It was especially unusual in September, said study co-author Sonia Seneviratne, head of land-climate dynamics at ETH Zurich, a Swiss university.
The year was within the range of what was predicted, albeit it was at the upper edge of the range, Seneviratne said.
“Acceleration if it were to happen would be even worse, like hitting a global tipping point, it would be probably the worst scenario,” Seneviratne said. “But what is happening is already extremely bad and it is having major impacts already now. We are in the middle of a crisis.”
University of Michigan environment dean Jonathan Overpeck and Berkeley Earth climate scientist Zeke Hausfather, neither of whom were part of the study, said they still see acceleration. Hausfather pointed out the rate of warming is considerably higher than 0.18 degrees Celsius (0.32 Fahrenheit) per decade of warming that it was between 1970 and 2010.
Scientists had theorized a few explanations for the massive jump in September, which Hausfather called “gobsmacking.” Wednesday’s report didn’t find enough warming from other potential causes. The report said the reduction of sulfur pollution from shipping — which had been providing some cooling to the atmosphere — was overwhelmed last year by carbon particles put in the air from Canadian wildfires.
The report also said an undersea volcano that injected massive amounts of heat-trapping water vapor into the atmosphere also spewed cooling particles with both forces pretty much canceling each other out.
Texas Tech climate scientist and chief scientist at the Nature Conservancy Katharine Hayhoe said “the future is in our hands. It’s us — not physics, but humans — who will determine how quickly the world warms and by how much.”
New study finds Earth warming at record rate, but no evidence of climate change accelerating
https://arab.news/9ax3u
New study finds Earth warming at record rate, but no evidence of climate change accelerating
- The group of 57 scientists said they don’t see evidence of significant acceleration in human-caused climate change
India announces successful hypersonic missile test
- Defense ministry says missile designed to carry payloads over distances greater than 1,500 km
- Other countries known to have hypersonic missile capabilities are the US, China and Russia
NEW DELHI: India has test-fired its first long-range hypersonic missile, the Ministry of Defense announced on Sunday, marking the country’s entry into a small group of nations known to possess such weapons programs.
The Defense Research and Development Organization — an agency under the Ministry of Defense — conducted the test on Saturday night on Abdul Kalam Island off the coast of the eastern state of Odisha.
The missile, designed to carry payloads over 1,500 km, was “indigenously developed by the laboratories of Dr. APJ Abdul Kalam Missile complex, Hyderabad along with various other DRDO laboratories and industry partners,” the ministry said in a statement Sunday.
“The flight data obtained from down range ship stations confirmed the successful terminal maneuvers and impact with high degree of accuracy.”
Defense Minister Rajnath Singh took to social media to say the test was a “historic moment” that has put India country in the “group of select nations having capabilities of such critical and advanced military technologies.”
Hypersonic missiles can travel at speeds greater than five times the speed of sound, or 6,115 km per hour — much faster than other ballistic and cruise missiles, making them more difficult to track than traditional missile technology.
The other countries known to have such capabilities are the US, China, and Russia.
Defense expert Ranjit Kumar told Arab News that the successful launch of the hypersonic missile has enhanced the deterrent capabilities of the Indian missile arsenal.
“(The) hypersonic missile will add more teeth to the Indian missile firepower. (The) Indian Armed Forces already possess over 300 km range (supersonic) Brahmos cruise missile and over 5,000 km range Agni-V intercontinental ballistic missile, but the latest, over 1,500 km range hypersonic missile will ... give more confidence to the Indian military to be able to hit the target with sure success,” he said.
“At a time when India is surrounded with adversaries possessing long-range ballistic missiles, the latest hypersonic missile will deter them from launching a preemptive strike on Indian locations.”
More than 1.2 million people flee as new super typhoon hits Philippines
- Authorities warn of ‘life-threatening’ impact of sixth storm hitting the country in one month
- Risk of landslides is high, as soil in many affected regions is saturated from previous storms
MANILA: More than 1.2 million people have been evacuated in eight regions of the Philippines as the country braces for the impact of the sixth tropical cyclone to hit in the past month, the Office of Civil Defense said on Sunday.
Super Typhoon Man-yi slammed into the coastal island of Catanduanes in the typhoon-prone Bicol region on Saturday evening, as the national weather agency warned of “potentially catastrophic and life-threatening situations.”
Five other storms — Usagi, Trami, Kong-rey, Yinxing and Toraji — struck the Philippines since late October, killing at least 163 people, displacing millions and causing widespread destruction mainly in the country’s north.
OCD Administrator Ariel Nepomuceno said there were no immediate reports of casualties from Man-yi’s impact, but government agencies were on alert as they expected flooding and landslides on Sunday and Monday.
Residents were evacuated in eight regions covering the northwestern, northeastern and central parts of Luzon — the country’s most populous island — as well as the Bicol Peninsula in its southernmost part, the island provinces of Mindoro, Marinduque, and Palawan, and parts of the Eastern Visayas, including Samar island.
“We did worst-case planning … In total, 361,079 families cooperated, that means 1.24 million individuals who went to the evacuation centers,” Nepomuceno told Arab News.
“Fortunately, so far no one has been reported injured or killed. But we are not done yet because the storm is heading towards mainland Aurora … then to southern Aurora and northern Quezon, and then the typhoon will cross Central Luzon. It may exit La Union or Pangasinan, so we will look at that whole area.”
He said the main danger at the moment was from landslides as “the soils in the affected areas are already saturated.”
In Catanduanes, which was so far the worst hit, 11 of the island province’s 16 towns sustained major damage.
“Many houses were destroyed … because electric poles were toppled, there is no electricity in almost all of Catanduanes,” Nepomuceno said.
The Philippines is considered the country most at risk from natural disasters, according to the 2024 World Risk Report.
Each year, the Southeast Asian nation experiences around 20 tropical storms and typhoons, impacting millions of people as weather patterns become increasingly unpredictable and extreme due to climate change.
In 2013, Typhoon Haiyan, one of the strongest tropical cyclones ever recorded, displaced millions and left more than 6,000 people dead or missing in the central Philippines.
India announces successful hypersonic missile test
- Defense ministry says missile designed to carry payloads over distances greater than 1,500 km
- Other countries known to have hypersonic missile capabilities are the US, China and Russia
NEW DELHI: India has test-fired its first long-range hypersonic missile, the Ministry of Defense announced on Sunday, marking the country’s entry into a small group of nations known to possess such weapons programs.
The Defence Research and Development Organisation — an agency under the Ministry of Defense — conducted the test on Saturday night on Abdul Kalam Island off the coast of the eastern state of Odisha.
The missile, designed to carry payloads over 1,500 km, was “indigenously developed by the laboratories of Dr APJ Abdul Kalam Missile complex, Hyderabad along with various other DRDO laboratories and industry partners,” the ministry said in a statement Sunday.
“The flight data obtained from down range ship stations confirmed the successful terminal maneuvers and impact with high degree of accuracy.”
Defense Minister Rajnath Singh took to social media to say the test was a “historic moment” that has put India country in the “group of select nations having capabilities of such critical and advanced military technologies.”
Hypersonic missiles can travel at speeds greater than five times the speed of sound, or 6,115 km per hour — much faster than other ballistic and cruise missiles, making them more difficult to track than traditional missile technology.
The other countries known to have such capabilities are the US, China, and Russia.
Defense expert Ranjit Kumar told Arab News that the successful launch of the hypersonic missile has enhanced the deterrent capabilities of the Indian missile arsenal.
“(The) hypersonic missile will add more teeth to the Indian missile firepower. (The) Indian Armed Forces already possess over 300 km range (supersonic) Brahmos cruise missile and over 5,000 km range Agni-V intercontinental ballistic missile, but the latest, over 1,500 km range hypersonic missile will ... give more confidence to the Indian military to be able to hit the target with sure success,” he said.
“At a time when India is surrounded with adversaries possessing long-range ballistic missiles, the latest hypersonic missile will deter them from launching a preemptive strike on Indian locations.”
UK plans to sign deals with Turkiye, Iraqi Kurdistan to halt migrants
- Top nationalities for small boat crossings to Britain are Afghan, Iranian, Vietnamese, Turkish, Syrian
- Italy has reduced migrant numbers by 62% after agreements with Libya, Tunisia
London: The UK is set to agree deals with several countries in a bid to prevent thousands of illegal migrants reaching Britain, the Sunday Times reported.
The deals will mirror those signed by Italy with other countries, with money exchanged in return for stopping migrants from setting off.
Those in discussions with the UK include Turkiye and Vietnam, as well as the semi-autonomous Iraqi Kurdistan. Deals are expected to be signed by the year’s end.
Italy has managed to reduce the number of people crossing to it by 62 percent after Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni struck deals with Tunisia and Libya.
Tunisia received patrol boats and €100 million ($105.4 million) to invest in education, energy and companies employed to halt migration, while Libya’s coast guard will be trained and equipped by Rome. The EU has paid Tunisia an additional €105 million.
However, both agreements have been criticized by human rights organizations over the treatment of migrants in Tunisia and Libya by local authorities.
UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer met Meloni in September, during which he praised Italy’s “upstream work” in North Africa.
“I have always made the argument that preventing people leaving their country in the first place is far better than trying to deal with those that have arrived,” he said.
The UK has seen continuous increases in the number of people entering the country illegally, with the Labour government pledging to “smash the gangs” running the trade across the English Channel.
By Nov. 11, the total to have made the crossing for 2024 stood at 32,900 people. In 2023, the total number of crossings was 29,437.
According to UK government statistics, the top five nationalities for small boat crossings for the year up to June were Afghan at 5,730 (18 percent of the total), Iranian at 3,844 (13 percent), Vietnamese at 3,031 (10 percent), Turkish at 2,925 (10 percent) and Syrian at 2,849 (9 percent).
A deal signed by the previous UK government and France gave Paris £500 million ($630.9 million) to stop the crossings. The UK also gives Turkiye significant funds to stop migrants reaching Europe.
Last week, Dutch police arrested a Turkish man suspected of being a “major supplier” of small boat equipment in Amsterdam following a joint operation by the UK’s National Crime Agency.
The UK government is keen to strike a deal with Iraqi Kurdistan, from which a number of trafficking gangs operate.
Earlier this year, high-profile trafficker Barzan Majeed, known as The Scorpion, was arrested in Iraq after being tracked down by the BBC in the city of Sulaymaniyah.
UK Home Secretary Yvette Cooper is known to have sent fact-finders to the region to assess the viability of an Italy-style deal.
Any deals are likely to involve funding and training for local security services, as well as potentially including return clauses for migrants who reach the UK.
A source told the Sunday Times: “The assessment made after that trip was that Kurdistani nationals monopolise every part of the journey made by small boat migrants from the procuring of the craft to putting people on the boats on the beaches in France.”
Pope Francis calls for investigation to determine if Israel’s attacks in Gaza constitute ‘genocide’
- First time that Francis has openly urged for an investigation of genocide allegations over Israel’s actions in the Gaza Strip
- Last year, Francis met separately with relatives of Israeli hostages in Gaza and Palestinians living through the war
ROME: Pope Francis has called for an investigation to determine if Israel’s attacks in Gaza constitute genocide, according to excerpts released Sunday from an upcoming new book ahead of the pontiff’s jubilee year.
It’s the first time that Francis has openly urged for an investigation of genocide allegations over Israel’s actions in the Gaza Strip. In September, he said Israel’s attacks in Gaza and Lebanon have been “immoral” and disproportionate, and that its military has gone beyond the rules of war.
The book, by Hernan Reyes Alcaide and based on interviews with the Pope, is entitled “Hope never disappoints. Pilgrims toward a better world.” It will be released on Tuesday ahead of the pope’s 2025 jubilee. Francis’ yearlong jubilee is expected to bring more than 30 million pilgrims to Rome to celebrate the Holy Year.
“According to some experts, what is happening in Gaza has the characteristics of a genocide,” the pope said in excerpts published Sunday by the Italian daily La Stampa.
“We should investigate carefully to determine whether it fits into the technical definition formulated by jurists and international bodies,” he added.
Last year, Francis met separately with relatives of Israeli hostages in Gaza and Palestinians living through the war and set off a firestorm by using words that Vatican diplomats usually avoid: “terrorism” and, according to the Palestinians, “genocide.”
Francis spoke at the time about the suffering of both Israelis and Palestinians after his meetings, which were arranged before the Israeli-Hamas hostage deal and a temporary halt in fighting was announced.
The pontiff, who last week also met with a delegation of Israeli hostages who were released and their families pressing the campaign to bring the remaining captives home had editorial control over the upcoming book.
The war started when the militant Hamas group attacked Israel on Oct. 7, 2023, killing 1,200 people and abducting 250 as hostages and taking them back to Gaza, where dozens still remain.
Israel’s subsequent yearlong military campaign has killed more than 43,000 people, according to Gaza health officials, whose count doesn’t distinguish between civilians and fighters, though they say more than half of the dead are women and children.
The Israel-Hamas conflict in Gaza has triggered several legal cases at international courts in The Hague involving requests for arrest warrants as well as accusations and denials of war crimes, crimes against humanity and genocide.
In the new book, Francis also speaks about migration and the problem of integrating migrants in their host countries.
“Faced with this challenge, no country can be left alone and no one can think of addressing the issue in isolation through more restrictive and repressive laws, sometimes approved under the pressure of fear or in search of electoral advantages,” Francis said.
“On the contrary, just as we see that there is a globalization of indifference, we must respond with the globalization of charity and cooperation,” he added. Francis also mentioned the “still open wound of the war in Ukraine has led thousands of people to abandon their homes, especially during the first months of the conflict.”
