The rate Earth is warming hit an all-time high in 2023 with 92 percent of last year’s surprising record-shattering heat caused by humans, top scientists calculated.
The group of 57 scientists from around the world used United Nations-approved methods to examine what’s behind last year’s deadly burst of heat. They said even with a faster warming rate they don’t see evidence of significant acceleration in human-caused climate change beyond increased fossil fuel burning.
Last year’s record temperatures were so unusual that scientists have been debating what’s behind the big jump and whether climate change is accelerating or if other factors are in play.
“If you look at this world accelerating or going through a big tipping point, things aren’t doing that,” study lead author Piers Forster, a Leeds University climate scientist, said. “Things are increasing in temperature and getting worse in sort of exactly the way we predicted.”
It’s pretty much explained by the buildup of carbon dioxide from rising fossil fuel use, he and a co-author said.
Last year the rate of warming hit 0.26 degrees Celsius (0.47 degrees Fahrenheit) per decade — up from 0.25 degrees Celsius (0.45 degrees Fahrenheit) the year before. That’s not a significant difference, though it does make this year’s rate the highest ever, Forster said.
Still, outside scientists said this report highlights an ever more alarming situation.
“Choosing to act on climate has become a political talking point but this report should be a reminder to people that in fact it is fundamentally a choice to save human lives,” said University of Wisconsin climate scientist Andrea Dutton, who wasn’t part of the international study team. “To me, that is something worth fighting for.”
The team of authors — formed to provide annual scientific updates between the every seven- to eight-year major UN scientific assessments — determined last year was 1.43 degrees Celsius warmer than the 1850 to 1900 average with 1.31 degrees of that coming from human activity. The other 8 percent of the warming is due mostly to El Nino, the natural and temporary warming of the central Pacific that changes weather worldwide and also a freak warming along the Atlantic and just other weather randomness.
On a larger 10-year time frame, which scientists prefer to single years, the world has warmed about 1.19 degrees Celsius (2.14 degrees Fahrenheit) since pre-industrial times, the report in the journal Earth System Science Data found.
The report also said that as the world keeps using coal, oil and natural gas, Earth is likely to reach the point in 4.5 years that it can no longer avoid crossing the internationally accepted threshold for warming: 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit ).
That fits with earlier studies projecting Earth being committed or stuck to at least 1.5 degrees by early 2029 if emission trajectories don’t change. The actual hitting of 1.5 degrees could be years later, but it would be inevitable if all that carbon is used, Forster said.
It’s not the end of the world or humanity if temperatures blow past the 1.5 limit, but it will be quite bad, scientists said. Past UN studies show massive changes to Earth’s ecosystem are more likely to kick in between 1.5 and 2 degrees Celsius of warming, including eventual loss of the planet’s coral reefs, Arctic sea ice, species of plants and animals — along with nastier extreme weather events that kill people.
Last year’s temperature rise was more than just a little jump. It was especially unusual in September, said study co-author Sonia Seneviratne, head of land-climate dynamics at ETH Zurich, a Swiss university.
The year was within the range of what was predicted, albeit it was at the upper edge of the range, Seneviratne said.
“Acceleration if it were to happen would be even worse, like hitting a global tipping point, it would be probably the worst scenario,” Seneviratne said. “But what is happening is already extremely bad and it is having major impacts already now. We are in the middle of a crisis.”
University of Michigan environment dean Jonathan Overpeck and Berkeley Earth climate scientist Zeke Hausfather, neither of whom were part of the study, said they still see acceleration. Hausfather pointed out the rate of warming is considerably higher than 0.18 degrees Celsius (0.32 Fahrenheit) per decade of warming that it was between 1970 and 2010.
Scientists had theorized a few explanations for the massive jump in September, which Hausfather called “gobsmacking.” Wednesday’s report didn’t find enough warming from other potential causes. The report said the reduction of sulfur pollution from shipping — which had been providing some cooling to the atmosphere — was overwhelmed last year by carbon particles put in the air from Canadian wildfires.
The report also said an undersea volcano that injected massive amounts of heat-trapping water vapor into the atmosphere also spewed cooling particles with both forces pretty much canceling each other out.
Texas Tech climate scientist and chief scientist at the Nature Conservancy Katharine Hayhoe said “the future is in our hands. It’s us — not physics, but humans — who will determine how quickly the world warms and by how much.”
New study finds Earth warming at record rate, but no evidence of climate change accelerating
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New study finds Earth warming at record rate, but no evidence of climate change accelerating
- The group of 57 scientists said they don’t see evidence of significant acceleration in human-caused climate change
Pro-Palestinian protesters take Israel sculptures from UK university
LONDON: A pro-Palestinian group took two sculptures of Israel’s first president from a UK university in a protest marking the anniversary of the Balfour Declaration, with police on Sunday confirming they were investigating reports of a burglary.
“Today, Palestine Action have marked 107 years since the Balfour Declaration, by taking two sculptures of Israel’s first president, Chaim Weizmann, from its display case at University of Manchester,” the protest group said in a press release.
Greater Manchester Police told AFP in a statement that it had received a report of a burglary at the north west England university at around 11.55pm (2355 GMT) on Friday.
The local Jewish Representative Council of GM & Region community group wrote on X that “overnight, criminals from Palestine Action broke into the University, smashed the case and stole the statue of Weizmann.
“We urge the authorities and Home Secretary to fully proscribe Palestine Action as it is essential they face the full force of the law,” it added.
In the Balfour Declaration, UK foreign minister Arthur Balfour spelled out plans to form “a national home for the Jewish people” in a 1917 letter to Walter Rothschild, a British politician and supporter of the idea of creating a Jewish homeland in Palestine.
The letter was endorsed and published by the government on Nov 2, 1917.
Palestine Action also sprayed the London office of charity Jewish National Fund (JNF) with red paint, and carried out a similar protest at the Britain Israel Communications and Research Center (BICOM) lobby group HQ in London.
It also collaborated with students from the University of Cambridge, where Balfour was educated, to spray the university’s Institute of Manufacturing and Senate House.
Grenade attack wounds several in Indian-administered Kashmir — police
- Muslim-majority Kashmir has been divided between rivals India and Pakistan since their independence from British rule in 1947
- The region is home to a long-running insurgency that has killed tens of thousands of civilians, soldiers and militants since 1989
SRINAGAR: Indian-administered Kashmir’s chief minister on Sunday condemned a “deeply disturbing” grenade attack on a busy market in the main city of Srinagar, which police and media reported left several wounded.
“A grenade attack on innocent shoppers at the ‘Sunday market’ in Srinagar is deeply disturbing,” Chief Minister Omar Abdullah said in a statement.
“There can be no justification for targeting innocent civilians.”
Abdullah did not say how many were wounded, but a senior police officer, who was not authorized to speak to journalists, said nine people were wounded, all civilians.
The Press Trust of India (PTI) showed dozens of armed police and soldiers cordoning off the area in the Himalayan city.
The Hindustan Times quoted Tasneem Showkat, a doctor at Srinagar’s SMHS Hospital, as saying at least eight injured had been taken for treatment.
“The injured include eight men and one woman,” Showkat said, the newspaper reported. “All are so far stable.”
Muslim-majority Kashmir has been divided between rivals India and Pakistan since their independence from British rule in 1947 and is home to a long-running insurgency.
At least 500,000 Indian troops are deployed in the territory, battling an insurgency that has killed tens of thousands of civilians, soldiers and separatist militants since 1989.
The grenade attack comes a day after Indian troops killed three suspected militants in two separate firefights.
In October, gunmen ambushed an army vehicle and killed five people, including three soldiers.
That came a week after seven people were shot dead near a construction site for a strategic road tunnel to Ladakh, a high-altitude Himalayan region bordering China.
New Delhi regularly blames Pakistan for arming militants and helping them launch attacks, an allegation Islamabad denies.
“The security apparatus must do everything possible to end this spurt of attacks at the earliest so that people can go about their lives without any fear,” Abdullah added.
Lahore primary schools shut over record pollution: Pakistan officials
LAHORE: Pakistan’s second city of Lahore will close primary schools for a week over record pollution, government authorities said Sunday, to avoid exposing millions of children to smog several times above levels deemed dangerous.
For days, the city of 14 million people has been enveloped by smog, a mix of fog and pollutants caused by low-grade diesel fumes, smoke from seasonal agricultural burning and winter cooling.
The air quality index, which measures a range of pollutants, exceeded 1,000 on Saturday — well above the level of 300 considered “dangerous” — according to data from IQAir. The Punjab government also recorded peaks of over 1,000 on Sunday, which it considered “unprecedented.”
“Weather forecast for the next six days shows that wind patterns will remain the same. Therefore we are closing all government and private primary schools in Lahore for a week,” Jahangir Anwar, a senior environmental protection official in Lahore told AFP.
“All the classes” for children up to the age of 10, “public, private & special education... shall remain closed for one week” from Monday until Saturday, read a local government decision seen by AFP.
The decision added that the situation will be assessed again next Saturday to determine whether to extend the school closure.
“This smog is very harmful for children. Masks should be mandatory in schools. We are keeping an eye on the health of children in senior classes,” Punjab senior minister Marriyum Aurangzeb told a news conference Sunday.
Smog counters have been established in hospitals, she added.
Breathing the toxic air has catastrophic health consequences, with the WHO saying strokes, heart disease, lung cancer and respiratory diseases can be triggered by prolonged exposure.
Spanish royals visit flood-hit region as fresh downpours loom
VALENCIA: Spain’s King Felipe VI and Queen Letizia on Sunday just after midday arrived in the Valencia region where devastating floods have killed more than 200 people, television images showed.
The royals, accompanied by Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez, visited Paiporta — one of the worst affected towns — and are due to move on to Chiva, another battered town close to Valencia, later in the day.
Hopes of finding survivors ebbed five days after torrents of muddy water wrecked towns and infrastructure in Spain’s worst such disaster in decades.
Nearly all the deaths have been in the Valencia region, where thousands of security and emergency services frantically cleared debris and mud in the search for bodies.
Describing “the worst natural disaster in the recent history of our country,” Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez said it was the second deadliest flood in Europe this century.
Sanchez was expected to accompany King Felipe VI and Queen Letizia as well as the Valencia region leader Carlos Mazon on a visit to the areas affected by the floods on Sunday, according to the premier’s office. The exact program of their visit has not yet been made public.
The monarchs’ visit comes as Spain’s meterological agency issued a fresh warning for heavy downpours in the Valencia region.
Up to 100 liters per square meter (22 gallons per square yard) of water could fall in the province of Castellon and the area surrounding the city of Valencia, the agency forecast.
It also sounded the alarm for torrential rain that may cause flooding in the southern province of Almeria, advising residents not to travel unless strictly necessary.
Restoring order and distributing aid to destroyed towns and villages — some of which have been cut off from food, water and power since Tuesday’s torrent — is a priority.
With Spain deploying an extra 10,000 troops, police and civil guards to the Valencia region, the country was carrying out its largest deployment of military and security force personnel in peacetime, Sanchez said.
Officers made around 20 arrests on Saturday evening for thievery and acts of looting, police said, with the authorities pledging to crack down on those taking advantage of the disaster to commit crimes.
Authorities — including Mazon — have come under fire over the warning systems before the floods, and some stricken residents have complained that the response to the disaster has been too slow.
“I am aware the response is not enough, there are problems and severe shortages... towns buried by mud, desperate people searching for their relatives... we have to improve,” Sanchez said.
In the ground-zero towns of Alfafar and Sedavi, AFP reporters saw no soldiers while residents shovelled mud from their homes and firefighters pumped water from garages and tunnels.
“Thank you to the people who have come to help us, to all of them, because from the authorities: nothing,” a furious Estrella Caceres, 66, told AFP in Sedavi.
In Chiva, a town west of Valencia which Spanish media reported may be visited by the monarchs, Danna Daniella said she had been cleaning her restaurant for three days straight and was still in shock.
“It feels like the end of the world,” the woman in her 30s said.
She said she was haunted by memories of the people trapped by the raging floodwaters “asking for help and there was nothing we could do.”
“It drives you crazy. You look for answers and you don’t find them.”
With telephone and transport networks severely damaged, establishing a precise figure of missing people is difficult.
Sanchez said electricity had been restored to 94 percent of homes affected by power outages and that around half of the cut telephone lines had been repaired.
Transport Minister Oscar Puente told El Pais daily that certain places would probably remain inaccessible by land for weeks.
Ordinary citizens carrying food, water and cleaning equipment have continued their grassroots initiative to assist the recovery, although authorities have urged people to stay at home to avoid congestion on the roads that would hamper the work of emergency services.
On Sunday, the Valencian government limited the number of volunteers authorized to travel to the city’s southern suburbs to 2,000 and restricted access to 12 localities.
The storm that sparked the floods on Tuesday formed as cold air moved over the warm waters of the Mediterranean and is common for this time of year.
But scientists warn climate change driven by human activity is increasing the ferocity, length and frequency of such extreme weather events.
Emergency services late on Saturday issued an updated toll of 213 people confirmed killed — 210 in the Valencia region, two in neighboring Castilla-La Mancha and one in Andalusia in the south.
Authorities have warned the toll could yet rise, as vehicles trapped in tunnels and underground car parks are cleared.
Grenade attack wounds several in Indian-run Kashmir: police
- The Press Trust of India (PTI) showed dozens of armed police and soldiers cordoning off the area in the Himalayan city
- At least 500,000 Indian troops are deployed in Kashmir, battling an insurgency that has killed tens of thousands of civilians, soldiers and rebels since 1989
Srinagar: Indian-run Kashmir’s chief minister on Sunday condemned a “deeply disturbing” grenade attack on a busy market in the main city of Srinagar, which police and media reported left several wounded.
“A grenade attack on innocent shoppers at the ‘Sunday market’ in Srinagar is deeply disturbing,” Kashmir chief minister Omar Abdullah said in a statement.
“There can be no justification for targeting innocent civilians.”
Abdullah did not say how many were wounded, but a senior police officer, who was not authorized to speak to journalists, said nine people were wounded, all civilians.
The Press Trust of India (PTI) showed dozens of armed police and soldiers cordoning off the area in the Himalayan city.
The Hindustan Times quoted Tasneem Showkat, a doctor at Srinagar’s SMHS Hospital, as saying at least eight injured had been taken for treatment.
“The injured include eight men and one woman,” Showkat said, the newspaper reported. “All are so far stable.”
Muslim-majority Kashmir has been divided between rivals India and Pakistan since their independence from British rule in 1947 and is home to a long-running insurgency.
At least 500,000 Indian troops are deployed in Kashmir, battling an insurgency that has killed tens of thousands of civilians, soldiers and rebels since 1989.
The grenade attack comes a day after Indian troops killed three suspected militants in two separate firefights.
In October, gunmen ambushed an army vehicle and killed five people, including three soldiers.
That came a week after seven people were shot dead near a construction site for a strategic road tunnel to Ladakh, a high-altitude Himalayan region bordering China.
New Delhi regularly blames Pakistan for arming militants and helping them launch attacks, an allegation Islamabad denies.
“The security apparatus must do everything possible to end this spurt of attacks at the earliest so that people can go about their lives without any fear,” Abdullah added.
