Oil and gas industry needs $4.3tn in investments by 2030: IEF

According to the report, global upstream oil and gas capital expenditure is expected to grow by $24 billion this year, surpassing $600 billion for the first time in a decade. Shutterstock
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Updated 06 June 2024
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Oil and gas industry needs $4.3tn in investments by 2030: IEF

RIYADH: The oil and gas industry will need cumulative investments worth $4.3 trillion from 2025 to 2030 to meet growing demand and maintain market stability, according to an analysis. 

In its latest report, the International Energy Forum said that the increasing capital expenditure needs are based on an outlook that sees demand for oil rising from 103 million barrels per day in 2023 to 110 million bpd in 2030. 

“More investment in new oil and gas supply is needed to meet growing demand and maintain energy market stability, which is the foundation of global economic and social wellbeing,” said Joseph McMonigle, secretary general of the IEF. 

He added: “Well-supplied and stable energy markets are critical to making progress on climate because the alternative is high prices and volatility, which undermines public support for the transition as we have seen in the past two years.” 

An outlook on global upstream oil and gas capex

According to the report, global upstream oil and gas capital expenditure is expected to grow by $24 billion this year, surpassing $600 billion for the first time in a decade. 

IEF highlighted that annual investment must grow by another $135 billion, or 22 percent, to $738 billion by 2030 to ensure adequate supply.

“This estimate for 2030 is 15 percent higher than we assessed a year ago and 41 percent higher than assessed two years ago due primarily to rising costs and a stronger demand outlook,” said the energy think tank in the report, which was released in association with S&P Global. 

Roger Diwan, vice president at S&P Global Commodity Insights, said that expected production declines and future demand growth will require re-investing existing cash flows even as the transition proceeds.

According to the energy think tank, North America and Latin America will dominate the projected increase in upstream capital expenditure between now and 2030, with over 60 percent of the overall global investments set to happen in the region. 

“While North America is expected to be the largest driver of capex growth to 2030, Latin America will continue to play an increasingly significant role in non-OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) supply growth, particularly for conventional crude, with expansions planned for Brazil and Guyana,” said IEF. 

It added: “Around 2.2 million bpd in new or expanded conventional projects have been approved and are expected to be produced in Latin America by 2030 – this is more than a third of the total 6 million bpd that has been sanctioned globally.” 

The report also noted significant uncertainty around the trajectory for global oil and gas demand and the pace of the energy transition to net zero carbon dioxide emissions. 

“Base-case forecasts from consensus-leading organizations diverge by as much as 7 million bpd for 2030 and this gap widens to 27 million bpd when more ambitious climate scenarios are included,” said the energy think tank. 

Increased investment supports energy transition

According to IEF, a rise in capital expenditure in upstream oil and gas could support energy transition and ensure energy security. 

“A just, orderly, and equitable energy transition requires a foundation of energy security. The past two years have demonstrated the consequences of disorderly transitions: price shocks, shortages, disruptions, political backlash, bitter divisions, and conflict,” said the report. 

It added: “Ensuring adequate investment levels can help provide stability and enable a just transition. But it will require the market to remain nimble and flexible to overcome potential hurdles and adapt to new realities.” 

IEF, however, highlighted that global conventional crude production would fall by over 20 percent by 2035 without additional drilling. 

The energy think tank added that investments in the oil and gas sector made this decade will impact production levels well into the next decade and beyond. 

“Continued upstream investment is needed first to offset expected production declines and then to meet future demand growth. Without additional drilling, we estimate that conventional non-OPEC production would decline by 9 million bpdby 2030 and 14 million bpd by 2035,” said IEF. 

It added: “The decline rates for non-conventional crude, including US shale, are significantly steeper and would see more than 80 percent decline in the next decade.” 

The analysis also revealed that oil and gas companies worldwide have increased their spending to reduce carbon dioxide emissions. 

“The upstream sector accounts for around 60 percent of the oil and gas industry’s greenhouse gas emissions. Companies are increasingly focused on reducing Scope 1 and 2 emissions in their upstream operations to meet regulatory requirements, investor expectations, and environmental goals,” said the report. 

Scope 1 emissions are “direct emissions” from sources owned or controlled by the company, while Scope 2 denotes emissions released into the atmosphere from the use of purchased energy. 

These are also known as indirect emissions, as they are generated at another facility, such as a power station.

According to the report, the increased focus on upstream decarbonization has also contributed to the upwardly revised capex forecast. 

IEF also highlighted that energy companies’ strong profits in the past couple of years have helped them invest in capital expenditures directly from operating cash flow, ultimately reducing reliance on debt financing. 

“This is a notable change from COVID and pre-COVID years when the primary constraint on investment was capital availability due to weak cash flow, reliance on external capital, and depressed investor appetite,” the release added. 

In an additional report released in May, IEF said that to meet widespread electric vehicle targets, the world needs to mine more than double the amount of copper ever excavated in human history. 

The analysis noted that electrifying the global vehicle fleet would necessitate the opening of 55 percent more new copper mines by 2035 – and this expansion needs to be encouraged by governments.


UAE shares end higher as outcome of US-China trade talks awaited

Updated 09 June 2025
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UAE shares end higher as outcome of US-China trade talks awaited

LONDON: Stock markets in the UAE ended higher on Monday, in step with Asian peers, as investors awaited the outcome of US-China trade talks in London in the hope that a deal could boost the global economic outlook.

Top US and Chinese officials will sit down in London on Monday for talks aimed at defusing the high-stakes trade dispute between the two super powers that has widened to export controls over goods and components critical to global supply chains.

Dubai’s benchmark index hit its highest levels since 2008 and settled up 1 percent, with almost all sectors in positive territory.

Tolls operator Salik Company gained 2.3 percent and Deyaar Development surged 14.6 percent.

In Abu Dhabi, the index was up for a third straight session and gained 0.1 percent, lifted by a 1.6 percent rise in blue-chip developer Aldar Properties and a 1.8 percent advance in Abu Dhabi’s flagship energy firm Abu Dhabi National Energy Company.

Most stock markets in the Gulf and Egypt including Saudi, Qatar, Kuwait are closed on Monday due to a public holiday.


Saudi commercial bank profits jump 16% in April, topping $2bn before zakat, tax

Updated 09 June 2025
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Saudi commercial bank profits jump 16% in April, topping $2bn before zakat, tax

  • Year-to-date earnings reached SR32.97 billion, an annual rise of 20%
  • Banks getting balance sheets ready for next investment wave

RIYADH: Saudi Arabia’s banking sector extended its winning streak in April, posting SR7.77 billion ($2.07 billion) in pre-zakat and tax profits, a 16 percent increase compared to the same month last year.

According to the Saudi Central Bank, also known as SAMA, this brought year-to-date earnings to SR32.97 billion, an annual rise of 20 percent, keeping the Kingdom firmly on course for another record-breaking period.

The sustained momentum is attributed to a robust mix of state spending on giga-projects, resilient consumer demand, and still-elevated interest rates.

Financing volumes continue to climb, driven primarily by corporate borrowers across a growing range of industries, including manufacturing, utilities, insurance, and private education. 

Speaking at the inaugural 24 Fintech conference in September, Finance Minister Mohammed Al-Jadaan said the Kingdom had licensed 224 fintech firms by the second quarter of 2024. File/SPA

Contractors are also racing to secure long-term credit for giga-projects such as NEOM, Diriyah, and the Jafurah gas field.

A wider Gulf picture

Strong as those local figures are, the broader region is also gaining momentum. A Kamco Invest report released in May showed that Gulf banks collectively earned a record $15.6 billion in the first quarter of 2025, an 8.6 percent increase from a year earlier.

Financial institutions in the UAE posted the largest absolute increase, adding $639.6 million, while Saudi lenders recorded the fastest annual growth at 17.2 percent.

Kamco added that fee income is rising, costs are under control, and loan-loss provisions fell sharply during the period, cushioning a small dip in net interest income.

Investor appetite is visible in market valuations. Forbes Middle East’s “30 Most Valuable Banks 2025” March list includes 10 Saudi lenders with a combined market cap of about $269 billion— roughly one-third of the entire ranking.

Al Rajhi Bank led the pack at $105.6 billion, with Saudi National Bank following at $54.7 billion.

Contractors are racing to secure long-term credit for giga-projects such as NEOM, Diriyah, and the Jafurah gas field. NEOM

Global Finance named Saudi Awwal Bank the Kingdom’s best lender in its May “World’s Best Banks in the Middle East 2025” release, highlighting its HSBC-backed mobile app upgrades, Visa Direct payments, and one-stop small and medium-sized enterprises lending platform.

Cleaning the books and raising cash

Banks are also getting balance sheets ready for the next investment wave.

Bloomberg reported in March that lenders are exploring sales of older non-performing loans to specialist investors to free up capital for upcoming mega project drawdowns.

They’re also tapping capital markets. By June, they had issued over $5.6 billion in Additional Tier-1 bonds, already a full-year record and the world’s second-largest AT1 issuance in 2025, according to Bloomberg.

The spree includes Al Rajhi Bank’s $1.25 billion deal in April, Banque Saudi Fransi’s $650 million perpetual at 6.375 percent in May, Saudi Awwal Bank’s $650 million inaugural issue, and Alinma Bank’s $500 million of sustainable sukuk, all heavily oversubscribed.

Saudi National Bank was ranked in the Forbes Middle East’s “30 Most Valuable Banks 2025” March list. Shutterstock

By tapping eager investors now, while margins remain healthy and global demand for Gulf paper is strong, lenders are bulking up capital buffers and keeping loan-to-deposit ratios in check. That leaves them better prepared to fund the fast-rising credit needs of projects like NEOM and Diriyah without tripping liquidity alarms later in the year.

Fintech role

Fintech is reshaping Saudi banking from the ground up. The Saudi Central Bank’s Open Banking Framework — most recently updated in September to cover payment-initiation services — sets common technical rules that let lenders and start-ups plug their systems together safely and at speed.

Speaking at the inaugural 24 Fintech conference in September, Finance Minister Mohammed Al-Jadaan revealed that the Kingdom had licensed 224 fintech firms by the second quarter of 2024, up from fewer than 100 just three years earlier.

One of the newest players is Riyadh-based Stitch, which closed a $10 million seed round on May 28. The company offers a single set of application-programming interfaces that lets banks, fintechs and even non-financial brands bolt on real-time payments and open-banking functions far faster than older systems.

Early adopters already include Lulu Exchange and point-of-sale platform Foodics. The founders say the fresh cash will go toward doubling the engineering team and expanding the product suite.

Saudi Arabia’s sustained momentum is attributed to a robust mix of state spending on giga-projects, resilient consumer demand, and still-elevated interest rates. File/AFP

Looking ahead

Riyad Capital’s first-quarter preview, released in April, expects another double-digit profit rise this year, about SR19 billion for the listed banks it tracks, as loan growth stays strong and rate cuts arrive slowly.

S&P Global, in its Saudi Arabia Banking Sector Outlook 2025 report, says a 10 percent increase in lending should outweigh a 20- to 30-basis-point dip in margins, keeping sector returns on assets near 2.1 percent to 2.2 percent.

Funding is the main watchpoint. Moody’s shifted its system outlook to stable on Feb. 25, saying strong credit growth is tightening liquidity, but capital buffers remain solid.

For now, asset-quality risks remain low. S&P expects non-performing loans to edge up to just 1.7 percent by the end of 2025, while loan-loss provisions are projected to stay around 50 to 60 basis points. Banks’ total capital ratios, hovering near 19 percent, provide a solid buffer to absorb potential shocks from falling oil prices or rising private-sector leverage.

Saudi lenders are still the region’s earnings workhorse. Profits are rising, market values are high, and fresh money — from bond buyers to venture capitalists — is flowing in. If they can keep gathering deposits quickly enough to fund a fast-growing loan book, the Kingdom’s banks look set to stay ahead of their Gulf neighbors in both profit and ambition well into next year.


Saudi carrier flynas to expand operations across 4 hubs, official says 

Updated 09 June 2025
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Saudi carrier flynas to expand operations across 4 hubs, official says 

  • Hubs include Riyadh, Jeddah, Madinah, and Dammam as part of growth plan
  • Carrier expanded its summer schedule, launching four new international destinations

RIYADH: Saudi Arabia’s low-cost carrier flynas is set to expand operations across its four main hubs — Riyadh, Jeddah, Madinah, and Dammam — as part of an ambitious growth plan, according to a top official. 

In an interview with Al-Eqtisadiah, Waleed Ahmed, the company’s official spokesperson, said that flynas holds the largest aircraft order in the Kingdom and one of the biggest in the Middle East, with a total of 280 aircraft set to be received. 

This follows a major deal signed in July with Airbus to acquire 160 new aircraft, including 30 wide-body A330neo and 130 single-aisle jets across A320neo, A321neo, and A321LR models. 

The airline has seen a sharp rise in passenger traffic, with volumes climbing from around 11 million in 2023 to more than 14.7 million in 2024, reflecting the low-cost carrier’s rapid expansion in line with Saudi Arabia’s push to position itself as a leading global hub for tourism and business. 

“These numbers reinforce the company’s role in supporting Vision 2030, which aims to increase the number of passengers to 330 million and attract more than 150 million international passengers by that year.” Ahmed said, as quoted by Al-Eqtisadiah. 

He also highlighted that, as part of its ambitious strategic plan, flynas has expanded its summer schedule by launching four new destinations for the first time: Krakow in Poland, Geneva in Switzerland, Milan in Italy, and Rize in Turkiye, in addition to its usual summer routes. 

Last week, flynas finalized its initial public offering at SR80 ($21) per share — the top of its indicated price range — following strong demand from both institutional and retail investors. 

The pricing values the airline at an estimated market capitalization of SR13.6 billion at listing. 

The offering followed the company’s announcement last month of its intention to float 30 percent of its share capital on the Saudi Exchange, making flynas the first airline in the Kingdom to go public and the first Gulf airline IPO in nearly two decades. 

In line with its ongoing fleet expansion, flynas recently took delivery of its fourth Airbus A320neo of 2025, bringing the total number of A320neo aircraft in its all-Airbus fleet to 57. The current fleet includes 63 aircraft — 57 A320neo, four A320ceo, and two A330neo wide-body jets.


Al-Habtoor Group chairman to lead high-level delegation to Syria, exploring investment opportunities

Updated 09 June 2025
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Al-Habtoor Group chairman to lead high-level delegation to Syria, exploring investment opportunities

  • Group said visit reflects its ongoing strategy to explore new cooperation with Syrian government
  • Khalaf Al-Habtoor to visit Syria in coming days

RIYADH: The head of Dubai conglomerate Al-Habtoor Group is set to visit Syria with a delegation of senior executives to discuss potential investments and partnerships with the new government.

According to a statement, the visit reflects the group’s ongoing strategy to explore new avenues of cooperation with the Syrian government and to assess potential investment opportunities across multiple sectors. 

It added that the trip stems from “a firm belief” in Syria’s ability to recover its strength and regional standing and the importance of public-private partnerships in the country’s rebuilding phase.

The move comes as Syria’s transitional government, led by President Ahmed Al-Sharaa, pushes economic reforms to attract foreign investment, including privatizations, relaxed trade policies, and major infrastructure deals. 

Speaking ahead of the trip, the group’s Chairman Khalaf Ahmad Al-Habtoor said: “Syria is a country rich in culture, history, and capable people. We believe in its future potential and are eager to play a role in its revival through meaningful projects that generate employment.”  

He added: “We look to Syria with great confidence. Its people possess the energy and resilience needed to shape a strong and prosperous future. As an Arab group with deep regional roots, we consider it both a moral and economic responsibility to stand as a partner in rebuilding stable and thriving societies.”

Al-Habtoor Group, a UAE-based multinational with a strong presence in the hospitality, real estate, and automotive industries, has a history of large-scale investments in the Middle East. The move follows the organization’s recent withdrawal from Lebanon, where it cited instability as a barrier to business.


Jordan’s foreign exchange reserves hold steady at $22.76bn in May

Updated 09 June 2025
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Jordan’s foreign exchange reserves hold steady at $22.76bn in May

  • Gold holdings at the end of May were valued at $7.76 billion
  • Qatar Central Bank recorded a 3.6% increase in its foreign currency reserves and liquidity

RIYADH: Jordan’s foreign exchange reserves remained largely unchanged in May, standing at $22.76 billion, as per new data released by the Central Bank of Jordan. 

The slight month-on-month dip — about 0.2 percent from April — reflects broad stability in the Kingdom’s external buffers. 

Jordan’s foreign exchange figures are broadly in line with trends observed across other Middle East and North African countries. 

The Qatar Central Bank recorded a 3.6 percent increase in its foreign currency reserves and liquidity, reaching 258.135 billion Qatari riyals ($70.9 billion) in May, up from 249.165 billion riyals in May 2024. 

Jordan’s long-term foreign-currency issuer default rating was affirmed at “BB-” with a stable outlook by Fitch Ratings. File/AFP

Egypt’s foreign exchange reserves rose to $48.525 billion by the end of May, compared to $48.144 billion in April, marking an increase of $381 million. 

“The Central Bank of Jordan stated in a statement today that its total foreign reserves are sufficient to cover the country’s imports of goods and services for approximately nine months,” the Qatar News Agency reported. 

The central bank also reported that gold holdings at the end of May were valued at $7.76 billion, totaling 2.345 million ounces, underscoring the role of bullion in Jordan’s reserve composition. 

“It added that the presence of comfortable levels of foreign reserves enhances the ability to influence exchange rates, provides a stable economic environment, and enhances the confidence of foreign creditors and investors,” the QNA report stated, citing the Jordan Central Bank. 

The Central Bank of Jordan said its total foreign reserves are sufficient to cover the country’s imports of goods and services for approximately nine months. File/AFP

In May, Jordan’s long-term foreign-currency issuer default rating was affirmed at “BB-” with a stable outlook by Fitch Ratings, citing the country’s macroeconomic stability and progress on fiscal and economic reforms. 

The US-based credit rating agency noted that the rating and stable outlook also reflect Jordan’s resilient financing sources — including a liquid banking sector, a robust public pension fund, and sustained international support. 

Despite the stable outlook, Jordan’s credit rating remains below that of several other countries in the region. In February, Fitch affirmed Saudi Arabia’s IDR at “A+” with a stable outlook, while the UAE was rated “AA-.” 

Fitch said the ratings are constrained by high government debt, moderate growth, risks from domestic and regional politics, as well as current account deficits and net external debt levels that exceed those of rating peers. 

Jordan’s foreign exchange figures are broadly in line with trends observed across other Middle East and North African countries. Central Bank of Jordan

A “BB” rating indicates elevated vulnerability to default risk, particularly in the event of adverse shifts in business or economic conditions. However, it also suggests some degree of financial or operational flexibility in meeting commitments. 

Fitch also noted that Jordan’s government remains committed to advancing its three-pillar reform agenda — spanning economic, public administration, and political sectors — despite external pressures. 

The agency added that the pace of reforms will continue to be shaped by the need to preserve social stability, resistance from vested interests, and institutional capacity limitations.