KARACHI: Pakistan’s central bank cut its key interest rate by 150 basis points on Monday in a widely expected move, marking its first rate reduction in nearly four years in its effort to boost growth amid a sharp decline in retail inflation.
The decision to cut the key rate to 20.5 percent comes two days ahead of Pakistan’s annual budget and a week after data showed inflation slowed to a 30-month low of 11.8 percent in May.
It also comes ahead of Pakistan’s negotiations with the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
Pakistan is in talks with the IMF for a loan estimated to be anything between $6 billion to $8 billion to avert a default for an economy that is growing at the slowest pace in the region.
The growth target for the upcoming year is expected to be higher at 3.6 percent than this year’s 2 percent and last year’s economic contraction.
Analysts and the business community have had mixed reactions to the cut, and are looking forward to the upcoming budget for clarity on the central bank’s next moves.
PAKISTAN BUSINESS COUNCIL
“With headline inflation decelerating by 550 bps from April to 11.8 percent in May, and the policy rate significantly positive, businesses generally expected a sharper cut.
“However, as the monetary policy committee points out, upward inflationary risks emanate from the FY 25 budget and future increases in energy tariffs. So the ball is in the government’s court to manage inflation.”
“Businesses should derive comfort from the narrowing current account deficit, a primary surplus on the fiscal account, deceleration in the growth of currency in circulation, declining food inflation, and stable FX reserves... All these factors augur well for further reduction in the policy rate.”
MUSADAQ ZULQARNAIN, DIRECTOR OF THE PAKISTAN TEXTILE COUNCIL
“I expect that, while the policy rate should come down by 300 basis points, out of abundant caution it was reduced by 150-200 basis points.
“It will surely help a bit, though the rates will still be in a higher than workable range. But this will set the direction. We will also have to wait for the budget to see what the overall impact (is).”
M ABDUL ALEEM, CEO AND SECRETARY GENERAL OF PAKISTAN’S OVERSEAS INVESTORS CHAMBER OF COMMERCE AND INDUSTRY
“At present our real policy rate stands at 10 percent. This leaves room for a higher cut, at least by 2 percent. However, the monetary policy committee decided to cut the rate by 150 bps.
“This decline in the policy rate will provide relief of around 600 billion rupees ($2.16 billion) in debt servicing to the government and also to businesses by lowering the cost of borrowing.
“Business confidence has already improved, as reflected in the latest OICCI Business Confidence Index.
“Post the June 12 budget, we expect a revival of economic activities and the creation of employment opportunities. Moreover, as inflation is declining, we expect more cuts in future.”
TAHIR ABBAS, HEAD OF RESEARCH AT ARIF HABIB LIMITED
“The central bank has indicated that inflationary pressures are easing, supported by a significantly positive real interest rate. We believe that this monetary easing cycle will persist, with an additional 3-4 percent decline expected in 2024.
“The stock market is expected to take the news positively. However, there remains fear and uncertainty over hefty taxation measures in the upcoming federal budget.
“For industries, it would be a welcome step as it would reduce borrowing costs. More importantly, it would be positive for the federal government fiscal account as well, as it is the largest borrower in the system.”
ABID SULERI, EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR OF THE SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT POLICY INSTITUTE
“This is a prudent measure by the central bank. The central bank is cautious because of the upcoming budget and some measures that may push inflation up once again.
“Once in an IMF program, we may see some changes in the rupee-dollar parity.
“We need to remember that the monetary policy is not just for inflation, but also to encourage domestic savings to prevent dollarization.
“In the next two meetings, if things remain constant, we will see the key rate ease further.”
ALMAS HYDER, SENIOR MEMBER OF THE LAHORE CHAMBER OF COMMERCE AND INDUSTRY
“A rate cut signifies taming of inflation and creating opportunities for investment. This will start a positive cycle of investment planning for the future.”
MUSTAFA PASHA, CHIEF INVESTMENT OFFICER AT LAKSON INVESTMENTS
“(I) don’t see (the cut) being an issue with the IMF as we are still very far from an accommodative policy stance (12 percent or lower). (I) foresee aggressive rate cuts in the second half of the year (4-5 percent) if we get an IMF program.”
Expert and industry present mixed reviews on Pakistan central bank rate cut
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Expert and industry present mixed reviews on Pakistan central bank rate cut
- Pakistan is in talks with the IMF for a loan estimated to be anything between $6 billion to $8 billion to avert a sovereign default
- The growth target for upcoming year is expected to be higher at 3.6 percent than this year’s 2 percent and last year’s economic contraction
Senior political leader shot dead amid escalating militancy in Pakistan’s northwest
- Mashaal Azad, a PPP leader in Lakki Marwat, was ambushed while going for Friday prayers
- Attack occurred the day Pakistan’s army chief was in Peshawar to discuss security situation
PESHAWAR: Amid a string of deadly attacks that have claimed the lives of dozens of civilians and security officials in Pakistan’s northwest, unidentified gunmen on Friday shot dead a senior leader of the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) in the volatile Lakki Marwat district of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) province, police said.
The restive district, a hotspot of militant activity, witnessed unprecedented protests in September when police officers, joined by civil society members and tribal elders, staged sit-ins and blocked the Indus Highway.
The demonstrations followed a spate of militant attacks that killed several policemen, prompting demands for enhanced security measures and greater autonomy for the law enforcement agency in counterterrorism operations.
Speaking to Arab News over the phone, the police spokesperson in the district, Shahid Marwat, said the slain PPP leader Mashaal Azad was heading toward Sarai Gambila, a rundown locality on the outskirts of the district’s center, for Friday prayers when he was ambushed by gunmen.
“Mashaal Azad was killed by unidentified bike riders on the Canal Road near Kajoori Hotel within the limits of Sarai Gambila police station,” Marwat said.
The incident occurred on the day Pakistan’s army chief General Asim Munir was visiting Peshawar, the provincial capital of KP, where he vowed action against militants and reiterated the army’s firm resolve to dismantle hostile militant networks.
The killing also follows a gun attack on a convoy carrying members of the minority Shiite community in the Kurram tribal district a day earlier, leaving more than 40 people dead.
Earlier this week, on Tuesday, 10 Pakistan army soldiers and two members of the paramilitary Frontier Constabulary were killed when militants attacked a checkpost in the northwestern Bannu district.
Rabnawaz Marwat, a tribal elder in Lakki Marwat, said the late PPP leader was a long-time and senior party figure who had been a strong voice against militancy in the region.
“Late Azad had served as a member of the provincial council of PPP,” he informed. “He had also served as a student leader of PPP in Lakki Marwat. In addition, he was an active tribal elder who played a leading role in dispute resolution in the region.”
According to the police spokesperson, a report of the incident has been lodged against unidentified persons, and further investigations will be initiated.
“It is mentioned in the report that late Azad had no personal enmity with anyone in the area,” he said. “It seems to be an act of targeted attack by terrorists.”
On Tuesday, Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif chaired a meeting of civil and military leaders to review the country’s security situation, during which it was agreed to take action against those involved in militant violence.
Pakistan’s first hand-drawn animated film ‘The Glassworker’ makes Oscars eligibility list
- The film was released in July, with its director calling it the result of ‘passion and perseverance’
- Selection committee in the country says it has broken ‘new ground for animation’ in Pakistan
ISLAMABAD: Pakistan’s first hand-drawn animated film, “The Glassworker,” has been named on the list of eligible films for the 97th Academy Awards in both the Animated Feature Film and International Feature Film categories, the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences announced this week.
Directed by young Pakistani animator Usman Riaz, the film was released in July and features 1,477 cuts and 2,500 individual drawings. The coming-of-age tale follows Vincent, a young apprentice at his father’s glass workshop, and Alliz, a talented violinist and the daughter of a military colonel.
Against the backdrop of a looming war, their relationships with their parents and each other are tested.
“Thirty-one features are eligible for consideration in the Animated Feature Film category for the 97th Academy Awards,” the Academy said on its website, with “The Glassworker” among them.
“Films submitted in the Animated Feature Film category may also qualify for Academy Awards in other categories, including Best Picture,” it added. “Animated features that have been submitted in the International Feature Film category as their country’s official selection are also eligible in the category.”
Five films from the list will be shortlisted for nominations in the Animated Feature Film category, with the ultimate winner announced at the Oscars ceremony scheduled for March 3, 2025.
A team of 250 national and international cast and crew members worked on the film, which was produced by Riaz’s Karachi-based Mano Animation Studios.
The film became Pakistan’s first-ever animated feature to be nominated for Oscars consideration in September.
“Usman and Mano’s work has demonstrated exceptional storytelling and artistry while breaking new ground for animation in Pakistan,” the Academy Selection Committee of Pakistan said earlier while lauding the project. “This achievement will be remembered in our cinematic history.”
Riaz described his effort as a result of “a decade of passion and perseverance” when the film was nominated for Oscars from Pakistan.
“I am deeply humbled by the selection and hope this story resonates with audiences everywhere, showcasing the talent and creativity Pakistan has to offer,” he added.
Pakistan seal final spot in Under-19 cricket tri-series with dominant win over UAE
- Pakistan posted their highest total of the tournament, amassing 314 for five in 50 overs
- UAE’s innings ended at 123 in 37 overs, setting the stage for Pakistan-Afghanistan clash
ISLAMABAD: Half-centuries by Farhan Yousuf, Haroon Arshad, Shahzaib Khan and Usman Khan powered Pakistan’s Under-19 cricket team to a commanding 191-run victory over the United Arab Emirates in the fifth match of the U19 tri-series at the ICC Cricket Academy Ground in Dubai on Friday.
The victory secured Pakistan’s place in the final, where they will face Afghanistan U19 on Tuesday, November 26, at the same venue.
This was Pakistan’s second win over UAE in the tournament, having defeated them by 10 wickets in the opening match.
“Pakistan U19 earn an emphatic 191-run win over UAE U19,” the Pakistan Cricket Board announced in a social media post. “They will play the tri-series final on Tuesday.”
The Pakistan team edged Afghanistan by 13 runs in their previous encounter but suffered a loss to them earlier in the series.
After electing to bat, Pakistan posted their highest total of the tournament, amassing 314 for five in 50 overs.
Left-handed openers Shahzaib Khan (71 off 84) and Usman Khan (50 off 64) provided a solid foundation with a 96-run opening stand. Farhan Yousuf (63 off 50) and Haroon Arshad (54 off 34) then built on the momentum with a brisk 75-run partnership for the fourth wicket, while Faham-ul-Haq contributed a steady 37 off 48. For UAE, Noorullah Ayubi and Uddish Suri picked up two wickets each.
Chasing 315, UAE struggled from the outset, collapsing to 52 for five within 16 overs.
Ayaan Misbah (17 off 46) and Uddish Suri (32 not out) attempted to stabilize the innings with a 21-run stand for the sixth wicket, but Misbah fell to Umar Zaib in the 26th over.
UAE’s innings ended at 123 in 37 overs, with Umar Zaib taking four for 51 and Naveed Ahmed Khan claiming three wickets.
The final group match of the series will be played between Afghanistan and UAE on Sunday, November 24.
Pakistan 'will break any hand' threatening Saudi relations — PM Sharif
- Statement comes after Imran Khan’s wife released a video message widely viewed as critical of the Kingdom
- Pakistan and Saudi Arabia are close allies, with nearly 3 million Pakistanis living and working in the Kingdon
ISLAMABAD: Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif on Friday vowed strict action against anyone attempting to undermine Pakistan’s close relations with Saudi Arabia, declaring that his government would “break any hand” threatening ties between the two nations.
Sharif’s statement appeared to reference recent remarks by Imran Khan’s wife, Bushra Bibi, who in a rare public message on Thursday assured state institutions that her jailed husband would not seek revenge against political opponents if he returned to power.
She also made remarks in her video message that were widely viewed as implying that the Saudi government had opposed Khan when he was prime minister from 2018-22.
“Such venom-spitting is an unforgivable crime,” Sharif said while addressing a ceremony on Friday. “I, as the prime minister of Pakistan, want to announce that the nation will break any hand trying to undermine the Pakistan-Saudi friendship.”
“This is not a joke,” he continued. “The allegation is beyond understanding. The biggest national interest is being slaughtered to serve the short-term political interest.”
He criticized the former first lady, whose husband’s PTI party is currently in opposition, saying that the Kingdom had never demanded anything in return from Pakistan for extending economic and diplomatic support but instead always “opened its doors.”
“I think there can be no greater enmity against Pakistan than this [issuing such comments],” he said, adding that Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party was sacrificing the country’s interest for its political interests.
Sharif said “no one will be allowed to play” with Pakistan’s interests when it concerned “brotherly allies” such as Saudi Arabia.
Earlier, Defense Minister Khawaja Asif also addressed the issue in a press conference, highlighting that over 2.8 million Pakistanis were working in the Kingdom, sending billions of dollars in remittances back to their country every year.
“Our cordial and friendly relationship with Saudi Arabia should not be affected due to someone’s political gains,” he said. “Such a controversial statement is an effort to save PTI’s sinking ship.”
Khan was ousted from the prime minister’s office in a parliamentary vote of no-confidence in 2022, alleging that he was removed by his political rivals and the all-powerful military at the behest of the United States. All three parties deny the accusation.
The cricketer-turned-politician has been in prison since August last year, facing a slew of legal challenges. He denies any wrongdoing, claiming that all cases against him are politically motivated to keep him in jail.
His PTI party is set to kick off a “long march” to stage a protest in Islamabad on Nov. 24, aiming to pressure the government into releasing Khan from prison. Authorities have refused to grant permission to hold the gathering and imposed a ban on public assembly in the capital for two months.
Pakistani stocks break psychological 99,000 barrier on optimism over rates, reserves
- An analyst attributes the intraday rally to broad-based gains across most economic sectors
- The stock market has remained bullish since the government slashed policy rate in November
ISLAMABAD: The Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) on Friday breached a major psychological barrier, surging past 99,000 points during intra-day trading before settling at 97,798.23, as analysts attributed the rally to investor optimism driven by falling lending rates and higher foreign exchange reserves.
The benchmark KSE-100 index climbed 2,057.40 points by 11:10 am, reaching 99,385.79 points from the previous close. However, the index closed at 97,798.23, marking an increase of 469.84 points or 0.48 percent.
Analyst Ahsan Mehanti of Arif Habib Corporation said bank levies on large deposits, surging global oil prices, and rupee stability were fueling investor optimism.
“Stocks remained bullish, led by scrips across the board, as investors weighed falling lending rates and the imposition of bank levies on large deposits following a drop in government bond yields,” he told Arab News. “Surging global crude oil prices, rupee stability, and higher forex reserves played a catalytic role in the record surge at the PSX.”
Last month, Pakistan’s external current account recorded a surplus of $349 million, marking the third consecutive month of surplus and the highest in this period. The current account reflects a nation’s transactions with the world, encompassing net trade in goods and services, net earnings on cross-border investments and net transfer payments.
A surplus indicates that a country is exporting more than it is importing, thereby strengthening its foreign exchange reserves.
A bullish trend has been observed in the stock market since Pakistan’s central bank cut its key policy rate by 250 basis points, bringing it to 15 percent earlier this month. Economic indicators have also steadily improved since securing a 37-month, $7 billion bailout from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in September.
In the past, the country faced a prolonged economic crisis that drained its foreign exchange reserves and saw its currency weaken amid double-digit inflation. Last year, Pakistan narrowly avoided a sovereign default by clinching a last-minute $3 billion IMF bailout deal.
