LONDON: It is a fool’s game trying to predict which matches in a tournament will produce a shock result. If the prediction is wrong, then one is likely to look foolish. If a shock or surprise result occurs, there is retrospective analysis of why it was so surprising and unforeseen. This situation has applied in the 2024 men’s T20 World Cup.

My reaction on waking up, in England, to the news that Afghanistan had beaten Australia was one of shock. Why was I shocked and should that have been my initial reaction? Perhaps it was because I predicted Australia would win the tournament. Perhaps it was because I had underestimated Afghanistan.

The team had lost to India by 47 runs in their previous match, after being thrashed by the West Indies by 104 runs. On this basis it was reasonable to assume that Australia had the upper hand, given that they were on a run of eight consecutive T20I victories, their longest winning streak in the format.

Both of my fellow Arab News podcasters had reported that one of the pitches at Kingstown, St. Vincent, had generated significant spin and had wondered how Australia would cope with Afghanistan’s high-quality spinners. Influenced by pitch reports, Australia opted to select an extra spinner, who was economical but claimed no wickets. Afghanistan’s batting has been patchy during the tournament, relying heavily on its openers, one of whom, Rahmanullah Gurbaz, is the tournament’s leading scorer, the other, Ibrahim Zadran, not far behind.

The team also feature the tournament’s leading wicket taker, Fazalhaq Farooqi, who played for the MI Emirates in the 2024 ILT20. Add in the captain Rashid Khan, one of the world’s leading spin bowlers with almost 150 T20I wickets, and the team has a solid spine. Support to that has not always been consistent but, against Australia, it appeared in the shape of Gulbadin Naib, whose medium pace claimed four wickets for only 20 runs, sparking a collapse of Australia’s middle order.

In that spell, Naib captured the wicket of Glenn Maxwell, who was threatening to win the match for his team. The minds of the Afghanistan players must gone back to Nov. 7, 2023, when they reduced Australia to 91 for seven in the 18th over, chasing 292 to win. A win could have propelled Afghanistan into the semifinals of the ODI World Cup.

However, fighting injury, cramp, dehydration and exhaustion, Maxwell, literally off his own bat, secured victory for Australia, surviving several missed chances in a score of 201. The scars of that loss will have run deep for Afghanistan and the memories must have resurfaced as Maxwell batted on a different level to his teammates. This time, the Afghan players held their nerve, a fine catch accounting for Maxwell, paving the way for a 21-run victory which they celebrated wildly.

Only one match, against Bangladesh, stood in the way of a semifinal place. Even the sceptics were forced to admit that an Afghanistan victory would not be a shock. In a tense, low scoring, rain-interrupted encounter the Afghan team held their nerve to triumph by five runs, although not without controversy.

In the 12th over, with Bangladesh two runs behind the recalculated target score, Afghanistan’s coach was seen on camera asking his players to slow down. Immediately, Naib, fielding at slip, threw himself to the ground, apparently suffering from cramp. He was treated and taken off the field, whereupon rain returned. On resumption of play, Naib then bowled the 15th over, taking a wicket which he celebrated by sprinting around the field.

Commentators were unimpressed. Some have felt that the “spirit of cricket” was impugned. Others have called for the International Cricket Council to invoke a penalty against Naib for “time-wasting” under its Code of Conduct. These include a match-fee fine, suspension points and an in-match five-run penalty.

No action has been taken so far. Afghanistan’s captain appeared irked by Naib’s behavior or, maybe, it was the instruction from the coach. He is Jonathan Trott, a South African-born cricketer who played 127 times for England. In the semifinals, he was faced with plotting the cricketing downfall of the country of his birth. It did not go well.

On a poor pitch, Afghanistan was dismissed for 56 in 11.5 overs, South Africa winning by nine wickets. Until that match, Trott’s star players had performed to the top of their abilities and the supporting cast had done so when required. Two of them, Naib and Mohammad Nabi were part of the squad which joined Division 5 of the World Cricket League in June 2008. The team rose rapidly into Division 2, enabling it to enter the 2009 qualifiers for the 2011 ODI World Cup. Although it failed to do so, one-day international status was granted.

Since then, continued development was rewarded with full membership of the ICC in 2019. One of the requirements to be fulfilled is that of having a funded women’s team with pathway structures in place, participation in at least one ICC women’s World Cup in the previous four years, or feature on the ICC rankings table. This is not being fulfilled.

The women’s team was first established in 2010, playing in only one tournament. In 2020, the Afghanistan Cricket Board awarded 25 central contracts, but the squad was disbanded following the Taliban capture of the country in August 2021 and the subsequent ban on women’s sport. Many of the team’s players are understood to be in Australia.

The Taliban’s different policy toward the men’s team is a recognition that cricket is the country’s most popular sport, holding particular significance amongst Pashtun men. The team’s success offers legitimacy to the regime at home. Other countries’ concerns about human rights are brushed aside. So far, the ICC has adopted soft diplomacy. It can hardly change that now the team is even more successful. Had it not been so, these issues would not be in such sharp profile. How they play out is unpredictable.

Those who did not foresee Afghanistan’s success have been made to look foolish. As if further proof was needed, I revisited a website which offered odds on which teams would reach the semifinals prior to the tournament. Remarkably, the most favored were India, South Africa, England and Afghanistan. Taking heed of that website would have eliminated any mention of shock and Afghanistan in the same sentence. Despite the semifinal loss, Afghanistan’s men’s team are now a force not to be underestimated in future.