Modi 3.0 and India’s distant Pakistan policy
https://arab.news/jt6x3
For India, democracy has proven to be a great asset and the loss of seats in the Lok Sabha by the Bharatya Janata Party (BJP) has shown that the Indian electorate has the collective wisdom to correct the course of their country’s trajectory. The self-correction inherent in a system of checks and balances is doing the work its supposed to do. Though he has commenced his third term as Prime Minister, Narendra Modi’s BJP does not have a simple majority any longer and requires the support of its National Democratic Alliance (NDA) partners namely Janata Dal (United) and the Telugu Desam Party. Today, India is a more mature nation and looks forward to the future with confidence and optimism.
Modi is bound to rule, unconstrained by a reduced majority, as he did for the past ten years. His allies in the NDA are not going to challenge his style or the direction that he has taken. The vision of India emerging from the dark days of colonialism to rightfully assume its historic role as a pole in international affairs is set and the world is listening and applauding the rise. Notwithstanding the domestic policies of transforming India into a majoritarian state based on the concept of Hindu Rashtra, the 1.4 billion people of India remain inspired by the ‘Modi magic’ that is delivering them big on the world stage.
The rhetoric of a nuclear region has also become outdated. Pakistan’s nuclear prowess cannot compensate for its economic decline.
Salman Bashir
Pakistan does not figure into India’s calculus. It has been left far behind by India in all fields. In fact, India has maintained a policy of indifference toward Pakistan. The only theme that is repeated is ‘terrorism emanating from Pakistan.’ At his inauguration, Pakistan was not invited and the neighborhood-first policy minus Islamabad has been evident for a while now. The question is whether it will continue and how Pakistan should adjust to it. It is fashionable to infer ‘external’ support for India’s rise in Pakistani circles. The US and western support for India is often cited as a cardinal element but on closer examination seems consequential and reactive rather than the primary reason.
A lot depends on the policies Pakistan pursues in the near term both domestically and externally to recover its position. Pakistan has to first make itself relevant regionally and strategically, to be taken into account by bigger and rising neighbors. Asking for dialogue with India to resolve Kashmir and other outstanding issues seems like an echo of old policies. There was a time that Pakistan-India were equated and more so after the May 1998 nuclear tests. But this has changed. The rhetoric of a nuclear region has also become outdated. Pakistan’s nuclear prowess cannot compensate for its economic decline. Another other crucial element has been Chinese support for Pakistan which too has apparently lost some of its previous fervor.
A country that has troubled relations with all of its neighbors and is sinking internally does not offer great hope for the future. Thus from 2015 to present day, we have seen at best, a ‘distance’ from Pakistan policy from India. Pakistan continues to criticize India’s treatment of its Muslim minority and Kashmiris. The Kashmiris and Indian Muslims have resisted and are capable of defending their interests. As is evident from the recent elections in India, a change might come and India may make some gestures to restore its secular identity once more.
At best what Pakistan can do is make some moves toward restoring its relations with India to pre-2019 levels. Modi will then be obliged to respond, in grace if not in substance. Modi 3.0 may not be the ideal time to try to rectify the situation, but choices are running out and a serious effort should be made.
- Salman Bashir is a Pakistani diplomat who served as Foreign Secretary of Pakistan and as High Commissioner of Pakistan to India.
X: @Salman_B_PK
