Oil Updates – prices steady after US inflation data lifts rate cut hopes

Brent crude futures for August settlement, which expired on Friday, were up 34 cents, or 0.4 percent, at $86.73 a barrel by 4:05 p.m Saudi time. Shutterstock
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Updated 28 June 2024
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Oil Updates – prices steady after US inflation data lifts rate cut hopes

BENGALURU: Oil prices were steady on Friday after key US inflation data for May was largely in line with expectations, lifting hopes that the Federal Reserve could start cutting interest rates this year, according to Reuters.

Brent crude futures for August settlement, which expired on Friday, were up 34 cents, or 0.4 percent, at $86.73 a barrel by 4:05 p.m Saudi time. The more liquid September contract was up 0.39 percent at $85.59.

US West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose 32 cents, or 0.4 percent, to $82.06.

Brent and WTI futures have risen nearly 2 percent this week, with both benchmarks on track for monthly gains of more than 6 percent.

The US personal consumption expenditures price index — the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge — was flat, in line with expectations. On an annual basis, PCE inflation rose 2.6 percent, as forecast.

Reaction in financial markets was minimal. For oil traders, the release passed unnoticed, said Charalampos Pissouros, senior investment analyst at brokerage XM.

Growing expectations of an imminent Fed easing cycle have sparked a risk rally across stock markets. Traders are now pricing in a 64 percent chance of a first Fed rate cut in September, up from 50 percent a month ago, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

Easing interest rates could be a boon for oil because it could increase demand from consumers.

“Oil prices have been converging with our fair value estimates recently, revealing the underlying strength in fundamentals through a clearing in the fog of war,” Barclays analyst Amarpreet Singh wrote in a client note.

Barclays expects Brent crude to remain around $90 a barrel over the coming months.

Oil prices might not change much in the second half of 2024, with concern over Chinese demand and the prospect of higher supply from key producers countering geopolitical risks, a Reuters poll indicated on Friday.

Brent crude is expected to average $83.93 a barrel in 2024 with US crude avergaing $79.72, the poll found. 


‘Powerful’ Saudi energy sector can buck volatility trend, forum told

Updated 43 min 34 sec ago
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‘Powerful’ Saudi energy sector can buck volatility trend, forum told

  • Business leaders gather at London Stock Exchange for BMG Economic Forum
  • Kingdom can use debt to fund growth due to ‘commitment and clarity’ of Vision 2030, expert says

LONDON: Business leaders hailed Saudi Arabia’s investment environment and prospects for economic growth at an event at the London Stock Exchange on Wednesday.
The BMG Economic Forum, of which Arab News is a partner, is held annually to discuss business developments in the Kingdom and the wider region.
Panelists explored topics including the effect of geopolitical developments on economies, and updates on Saudi giga-projects.
The Kingdom, which is rapidly expanding its non-oil economy, also has a “powerful” energy sector that has proved resilient to major geopolitical developments, said Dr. Carole Nakhle, CEO of Crystol Energy.
“Because especially here in the Western world, I hear about oil and gas being volatile, and you can’t rely on oil and gas,” she added.
“But I tell them, ‘You’re missing the point.’ A well-functioning market has to be volatile, right? But the key is, does it clear volatility quite efficiently?
“And what we saw in the last few years were some major geopolitical developments — the war in Ukraine, the energy crisis, on top of that, all the macroeconomic challenges, the war in Gaza etc., sanctions on Russia already, sanctions on Iran, Venezuela, Libya not quite settled, Syria, Yemen, you name it. But still, prices, although they spiked, they recover to their pre-crisis levels very quickly.”
Geopolitical crises in past decades would “send prices soaring,” Nakhle said. But that trend appears outdated, with Saudi Arabia in particular able to “take proactive policies and measures” that compensate for that risk, she added.
The “commitment and clarity” of Vision 2030 means the Kingdom can take on “reduced” geopolitical risk premiums, she said.
Nakhle also pushed back against the “overwhelming thinking” predicting the end of the oil sector in Saudi Arabia as part of the larger “peak oil” debate.
“If your economy is always dependent, and you need the oil money to fund all sorts of projects, very ambitious ones, then you’re in trouble,” she said.
“That’s a general overwhelming thinking, but that’s an oversimplification of a much more complex reality, because the big mistake that we should avoid is comparing all oil producers, even within OPEC, of which Saudi Arabia is a leader. They do have a very, very divergent picture when it comes to one producer versus another.
“I’m not worried about the GCC (Gulf Cooperation Council). I’m not worried about Saudi Arabia. They have the reserves and they have the low cost of production.”
As well as the strength of its energy sector, Saudi Arabia is funding capital expenditure through deficits in an effort to diversify the economy from oil, said Manish Singh, CEO of Crossbridge Capital.
That effort is working as planned, with the Kingdom harnessing its low debt-to-gross domestic product of 28 percent, as well as the power of major players such as Saudi Aramco and the Public Investment Fund, which boast combined assets of more than $2.3 trillion.
“If you have things to do locally, and the unemployment rate is low, and you’re growing your wages and spending, that’s something that you have to welcome,” Singh said.
On a separate panel discussing Saudi Arabia’s giga-projects, Jerry Inzerillo, CEO of the Diriyah Gate Development Authority, delivered an overview via video of progress in the original home of the Kingdom’s royal family.
“In 2023, we finished 9 km of parks, we introduced our hotel practice, which will have 42 new hotels,” he said.
“We introduced our Diriyah Futures Museum, one of nine, which will open in September of this year.
“We’ll also open … in September the first of all 42 hotels. We’re ahead of schedule, on time and on budget, and we look forward to welcoming everybody.”
Inzerillo was joined by Catalina Valentino, group CEO of ELIXR; and Arta Selmani, CEO of Mimicrete.
Valentino, whose company is the world’s first global giga-project, praised Vision 2030 for giving Saudi Arabia a “shift in purpose.”
She added: “I think that there’s a new generation being born in business, whereas previously it was looking at capitalism — how do I make money and how do I profit from these companies?
“And now there’s a shift to purpose-led and purpose-driven companies. And we can see that with Vision 2030 for Saudi Arabia, there’s a shift in purpose. What that means is that now we’re looking at those joints and how we join those up.”


Smart grid technologies crucial for global energy transition: IEA 

Updated 03 July 2024
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Smart grid technologies crucial for global energy transition: IEA 

RIYADH: Advanced smart grid technologies are pivotal for enhancing energy transition and system reliability, with projections indicating a need to double investments to $600 billion annually by 2030. 

In its latest report, the International Energy Agency emphasized that the success of the shift hinges on transforming various facets of the power system, including electricity generation plants, transmission and distribution systems, and consumer practices. 

This comes as the energy think tank projected that overall investments in smart grids should double annually through 2030 from the current $300 billion. 

The world aims to transition from fossil-based energy systems to renewable sources like wind, solar, and hydropower. This global shift, known as energy transition, is driven by major commitments such as the Paris Agreement, which targets net-zero carbon emissions by 2050. 

“The clean energy transition increases electricity demand and requires more wind and solar power, stressing power grids. Smart grid technologies can manage this transition, reduce the need for costly new infrastructure, and improve grid resilience and reliability,” said IEA in the report.  

It added: “In the pursuit of a cleaner energy sector, smart grid technologies are pivotal in modernizing a consistently overloaded grid. Digital technologies will also allow to integrate continually increasing shares of renewables from multiple sources, and further engage end users so that they can improve energy efficiency and reduce emissions.” 

In January, a research report by experts at Saudi Arabia’s King Fahd University of Petroleum and Minerals stated that smart grids could revolutionize the Kingdom’s current energy management systems. 

According to these researchers, such grids could enhance the integration of renewables into the electricity grid by enabling better energy transactions and ensuring a reliable supply. 

Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia is making steady progress in developing smart grids as the Kingdom aims to achieve its net-zero goals by 2060. 

In February, Peter Terium, CEO of NEOM’s water and electricity subsidiary ENOWA, told Arab News that the company has developed a blueprint for the world’s first renewable, high-voltage smart grid. 

Terium explained that the smart grid will enable ENOWA to supply the NEOM region with 100 percent renewable electricity while reducing the corridor footprint by 50 percent.  

He noted that the principle of smart grids is simple, as they are traditionally used on a small scale in buildings. 

Digital innovation 

The IEA emphasizes that measuring digital innovation in the power sector is crucial for tracking, improving, and implementing policies to shape the digitalization process effectively.  

The report highlighted that quantifying innovation is challenging due to the lack of standardized metrics, with patent filings being the best way to measure progress in this sector. 

“In this rapidly evolving landscape, patent data serve as a proxy measure of investment in innovation, offering valuable insights into the intellectual prowess and competitive strategies of people and organizations striving to redefine how we generate, transmit and utilize electrical power in the digital age,” said the IEA.  

The global body revealed that between 2000 and 2023, 16,000 International Patent Families were filed related to smart grids, accounting for 0.2 percent of total IPFs across all technologies. 

The report added that 2011 “saw a peak in smart grid innovation with 2,000 unique inventions produced, representing 11 percent of power sector innovations. Following a period of decline, the relative share of smart grid innovations increased to 13 percent in 2022, aligning with the trajectory of the IEA Net Zero by 2050 Scenario.”  

The agency noted that the highest shares of IPFs in the smart grid sector are focused on systems supporting the interoperability of electric or hybrid vehicles. Additionally, significant patent filings are also happening in demand response systems and energy storage unit technologies. 

Geographical distribution  

East Asia dominated smart grid innovation from 2017 to 2021, accounting for over half of the IPFs. Since 2007, it has consistently led globally, with North America and Western Europe sharing the remaining IPFs, according to the IEA. 

“In the last two decades, there has been a transition from Europe and the Americas being the primary sources of smart grid innovation to Asia taking on a more prominent role in this field,” said the report.  

It added: “North America experienced a peak share of smart grid innovation in the period between 2002 and 2006, but consistently produced less than a third of global smart grid patents for the remaining years.”  

The report disclosed that a quarter of smart grid IPFs registered in the past decade originated from inventors in Japan, with nearly an equal share coming from innovators in the US.  

The IEA added that the remaining half of registrations came from investors based in China, Germany, and South Korea.  

In a separate report released in May, the IEA highlighted that urban planning, digitalization and grid investment can help cities manage the impacts of climate change and growing energy demand.  

In that report, IEA emphasized, “Reducing emissions in cities is essential for the world to meet its energy and climate goals — and digital solutions that manage consumption patterns and optimize infrastructure can play a significant role.” 

The energy agency further highlighted that the pace of deploying digital technologies in the energy sector will heavily depend on the ability to build a skilled workforce. 


Saudi PIF ranks top in Middle East, 2nd worldwide in 2024 GSR scorecard

Updated 03 July 2024
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Saudi PIF ranks top in Middle East, 2nd worldwide in 2024 GSR scorecard

RIYADH: Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund retained its top Middle East position and rose five places to tie for second in a ranking of 100 sovereign wealth bodies, according to a release. 

The 2024 Governance, Sustainability, and Resilience Scoreboard, published by data platform Global SWF, shows the Kingdom’s fund improved its assessment score to an impressive 96 percent from 92 percent the previous year. 

Additionally, PIF attained the top global position for deploying fresh capital over the past five and a half years.

The GSR evaluation tool weighs crucial factors, including transparency and accountability, impact and responsible investing, as well as legitimacy and long-term sustainability.

The scoring system comprises 25 distinct elements: 10 concerning governance, 10 studying sustainability, and five examining resilience. Each element is answered with a binary response, given equal weight, and converted into percentage points.

“The presence of the Saudi Arabian SWF is a testament of the efforts that some of the Middle Eastern funds are undertaking to spearhead best practices in the region,” the agency commented.

Chad Richard, head of strategy development and innovation at PIF, stated: “The report reinforces PIF’s status as one of the world’s leading impactful and responsible investors, with world-class governance and sustainability practices.”

According to Richard, Saudi Arabia’s sovereign wealth fund has been at the forefront of promoting the global clean energy transition. It conducted the largest-ever voluntary carbon credit auctions worldwide, selling 3.6 million credits to international companies.

PIF also pioneered the issuance of green bonds, including the first-ever century green bond, totaling $8.5 billion. Additionally, it was the first fund in the region to pledge to achieve net zero emissions by 2050.

These efforts underscore PIF’s commitment to investing in a cleaner and more eco-conscious economy and fostering sustainable growth domestically and globally.

In 2024, state-owned investors face a challenging environment of volatility and uncertainty. The report mentioned that despite this, global equities experienced a strong rally in the first half of the year, with record highs reached by the S&P 500 and Nasdaq on June 18.

The S&P 1200 Global index also saw significant gains of 11.6 percent year-to-date. Bonds and hedge funds showed more modest increases of 0.5 percent and 5.5 percent, respectively. 

Private markets, including private equity and infrastructure, saw moderate rises, while real estate declined by 5.5 percent compared to December 2023.

Geopolitically, conflicts in Ukraine and Palestine, as well as tensions between China and the US, persist. Oil prices remain high at $83 per barrel, benefiting sovereign wealth funds from oil-rich economies.

“Investments in the first half of 2024 are again led by the Oil Five - Saudi’s PIF, Abu Dhabi’s ADIA, Mubadala and ADQ, and Qatar’s QIA, which invested $38 billion in 56 different deals. This figure is more than double of what the Maple Eight – largest Canadian funds – deployed and almost eight times what the Singaporean funds spent,” the report stated.

Middle Eastern funds have shown remarkable improvement in global sustainability rankings, increasing from 32 percent in 2020 to 48 percent in 2024, despite stricter sustainability criteria introduced this year.

Among the 22 GCC funds, the report highlighted that the PIF continues to lead the charge and has come a long way, increasing its score from 28 percent in 2020 to 96 percent today. 

It also mentioned that the Saudi fund voluntarily publishes an allocation and impact report and conducts self-assessments based on the Santiago Principles despite not being a member of the International Forum of Sovereign Wealth Funds.

Abu Dhabi’s Mubadala is on a similar path and plans to issue its inaugural annual impact report in the second half of 2024.

According to the Global SWF, state-owned investors, such as sovereign wealth funds and public pension funds, have achieved record-high assets under management. SWFs manage over $12 trillion, while PPFs oversee over $24 trillion, reflecting robust financial performance and growth beyond 2021 levels.

During the first half of 2024, sovereign investors participated in 27 mega-deals, each valued at over $1 billion in investments or divestments, the report added. Notably, the Saudi PIF ranked fifth, seventh, and eighth among the top 10 largest and most significant investments during this period.

According to the report, the push for sustainability goals at the organizational level is influencing the investment preferences of SOIs. In a significant shift, investments in green assets primarily focused on renewable energy have surpassed investments in black assets such as oil, gas, and mining for the first time in 2021. This trend has continued through 2022, 2023, and the first half of 2024.

According to the report’s charts, PIF holds the second-largest portfolio weight among SOIs invested in their domestic economy, standing at 73 percent, following Abu Dhabi’s ADQ, which leads at 89 percent.

The Saudi fund also stands out for its strong preference for direct investments in private equity and its substantial domestic focus.

Specifically, it targets critical sectors of the Saudi economy, including sports and leisure, tourism, and gaming, as well as construction and heavy industry.

It plays a crucial role as an economic catalyst and facilitator in achieving the Kingdom’s Vision 2030. It is dedicated to fostering private sector growth, expanding the country’s industrial base and creating employment opportunities as well as enhancing women’s participation in the workforce, attracting foreign direct investment, and developing the nation’s financial markets.

PIF also posted strong financial results for 2023, with revenues reaching SR331 billion ($88.3 billion) from its diverse investment portfolio. This marks a growth of over 100 percent compared to 2022, underscoring robust returns and progress toward its long-term goals in driving the Kingdom’s economic transformation. 

The consolidated financial statements 2023, prepared by KPMG, confirmed compliance with International Financial Reporting Standards and London Stock Exchange listing requirements.

PIF’s 2023 financial results underscore its strong financial and investment standing, receiving an A1 rating from Moody’s with a positive outlook and an A+ rating from Fitch with a stable outlook. These ratings affirm the fund’s robust financial health and consistent performance in the global market.


Closing Bell: Saudi main index steady at 11,595 

Updated 03 July 2024
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Closing Bell: Saudi main index steady at 11,595 

RIYADH: Saudi Arabia’s Tadawul All Share Index held steady on Wednesday, closing at 11,595.20 after a minor decrease of 10.89 points or 0.09 percent. 

The benchmark index saw a total trading turnover of SR4.99 billion ($1.33 billion), with 65 listed stocks advancing and 161 declining. 

On the other hand, the Kingdom’s MSCI Tadawul Index edged up by 0.15 percent to 1,448.73. 

However, Saudi Arabia’s parallel market Nomu declined by 1.39 percent to close at 25,745.14. 

The top-performing stock of the day was Al-Baha Investment and Development Co., with its share price surging by 8.33 percent to SR0.13. 

In the main market, other top performers included Gulf Insurance Group and Alamar Foods Co., whose share prices soared by 4.52 percent and 4.18 percent, respectively. 

Conversely, the worst performer on the benchmark index was Rasan Information Technology Co., with its share price declining by 5.26 percent to SR61.20. 

In the parallel market, share prices of Mohammed Hadi Al Rasheed and Partners Co. and Edarat Communication and Information Technology Co. surged by 16.34 percent and 8.07 percent, respectively. 

However, Ladun Investment Co., listed on Nomu, saw its share price drop by 16.67 percent to SR4.30. 

On the announcements front, Arabian International Healthcare Holding Co., also known as Tibbiyah, completed the acquisition of Al-Hammad Medical Services Co. for SR35 million. 

Meanwhile, Sumou Real Estate Co. announced a SR1.3 billion contract with Jubail and Yanbu Industrial Cities Services Co. to design and build 1,104 residential units in Yanbu Industrial City. 

In a Tadawul statement, the company confirmed that the contract for the project is effective for 36 months. 

Sumou Real Estate Co. further noted that the project will have a positive impact on the company’s results starting from the beginning of the development process.  

The statement also added that there are no related parties involved in the project.  


Saudi current account surplus expands to $7.6bn

Updated 03 July 2024
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Saudi current account surplus expands to $7.6bn

RIYADH: Saudi Arabia’s first-quarter current account surplus widened to SR28.6 billion ($7.6 billion), up 75.46 percent from the previous quarter, driven by strong services exports, an analysis showed. 

According to S&P Global Market Intelligence, services exports in the three months to the end of March hit SR58.7 billion, the second-highest quarterly figure on record. This follows the peak of SR61.7 billion in the second quarter of 2023, driven by revenues from travel services related to the Hajj pilgrimage. 

Saudi Arabia has been strengthening its service sector, including travel and tourism, as the Kingdom pursues economic diversification efforts to reduce its longstanding dependency on oil. 

The country’s travel and tourism sector alone expanded by over 32 percent in 2023, contributing a record SR444.3 billion to the Kingdom’s gross domestic product, according to the World Travel and Tourism Council’s 2024 Economic Impact Research. 

In its report, S&P Global said: “Strong services exports, which are driven by travel services, are encouraging from the Saudi perspective as this signals a significant acceleration of tourism and travel revenues outside of the Hajj season, which took place in June.”   

However, the report noted that despite a strong result for the current account, it was dampened by a 1.2 percent decrease in Saudi Arabia’s oil exports in the first quarter of this year compared to the previous three months. 

This decline in the Kingdom’s crude exports can be attributed to the voluntary oil production cuts adopted by members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and their allies, known as OPEC+. 

In March, Saudi Arabia announced the extension of its 1 million bpd cut, initially implemented in July 2023, until the end of 2024.  

“The current account result for the first quarter is in line with our expectation for the entire year of 2024, which calls for a current account surplus equivalent to 3.2 percent of the gross domestic product. The forecast rests on the assumption that Saudi Arabia’s oil supply cuts will remain in place for the rest of 2024,” added S&P Global.  

According to the analysis, non-oil exports continued to perform moderately in the first quarter and did not change significantly compared to the previous quarter or in the year-over-year term.  

The report also highlighted that Saudi Arabia should put more efforts to increase exports of non-oil goods, aiming to reduce dependency on oil as outlined in Vision 2030. 

“The relatively modest performance of non-oil goods exports signals more efforts are still needed to reduce Saudi exports’ dependence on oil,” concluded S&P Global.