Why the Trump election camp are celebrating

The Democratic Party in the US wanted the first debate between Joe Biden and Donald Trump to be a historic event in which they contrasted their candidate with his opponent, showing that his age was not an issue and that Trump was not fit to be a president. Hillary Clinton said beforehand that this was a choice between chaos and competence.

The debate on Thursday night was historic indeed. First, it reinforced the perception that Americans have about the president’s age. It reminded everybody of Special Counsel Robert Hurr describing him as an “elderly man with a poor memory.”

Second, it sent the Democrats panicking and wondering what to do. Some privately told journalists that they should find another candidate. The Republicans, meanwhile, were celebrating. Their candidate was on message, ignored most of the questions, said what he wanted to say instead, and sent them looking for a tape to measure the White House for drapes.

The debate will go down in the history of debates as the one that may seal the fate of the Democratic candidate. American media headlines said it all. The New York Times and the Washington Post used the same word to describe the president’s performance — they said he “struggled.” Politico was even more dramatic. “Biden is toast,” it said.

The Democrats said it was only one night and they still had five months to recover. Vice President Kamala Harris said Biden had a “slow start but a strong finish,” but in fact the president also struggled in his closing remarks.

Polls before the debate carried a warning to the Democrats. They show the two candidates virtually neck and neck, but in the races that matter — the battleground states that will determine the outcome of the election — Trump is ahead.

The debate will go down in the history of debates as the one that may seal the fate of the Democratic candidate. 

Dr. Amal Mudallali

Nate Silver, the doyen of polling data analysts, gives Trump a 65.7 percent chance of winning. He also believes Biden could win the popular vote but lose the election, a repeat of what happened to Hillary Clinton in 2016.

The problem the Democrats now have is, where will the campaign go from here? There are calls for the party to choose a different candidate before the convention, or on the convention floor. Others are calling on Biden to withdraw. What will Biden campaign donors do? Will they stick with the president or abandon him before the election? These are questions that the Democratic party has to deal with, but it is hard to change a candidate at this stage. There are also those in the party who believe that Biden will do better in the second debate, which is closer to the elections.

The judge in the Trump “hush money” case set July 11 for sentencing, just four days before the Republican convention, and Democrats hope that will change people’s minds.

Trump was declared the winner of the debate by his supporters and some early polling, but we need to wait to know the real effect on voters, especially the undecided. The divisions in the country mean each party will circle the wagons now and support their candidate regardless of what happened, but the undecided are the ones who will determine the fate of the 2024 elections.

Other issues are at stake. In Congress, especially among those who are running for election, all eyes were on the performance of their candidates: both Republicans and Democrats in congressional elections need a presidential candidate who is an asset and not a liability with the electorate.

The Republicans want to regain the Senate and keep the House, and Trump’s performance will affect their chances of doing so. The Democratic candidates, on the other hand, have to decide whether the president’s debate performance could hurt them — and if so, keep their distance.

• Dr. Amal Mudallali is a consultant on global issues, and former Lebanese ambassador to the UN.