Frankly Speaking: The Arab verdict on the US election debate

Frias Maksad - Palestinian as derogatory term
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Updated 30 June 2024
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Frankly Speaking: The Arab verdict on the US election debate

  • Middle East Institute Senior Fellow Firas Maksad shares his assessment of, and key takeaways from, recent Biden-Trump debate
  • Describes how the Gaza war might impact US election outcome, offers three scenarios for a Hezbollah-Israel full-scale war

DUBAI: If the statements made by US President Joe Biden and his rival Donald Trump during Thursday’s election debate are anything to go by, it will be bad news for the Palestinian people no matter who wins the White House race in November.

Indeed, in the first televised head to head of the US election campaign, Biden reiterated his commitment to siding with Israel in the war in Gaza and accused Hamas of resisting efforts to end the conflict.

For his part, Trump called Biden “a weak and a very bad Palestinian” — using the name of the national group as a slur — and argued that Israel should be given a free hand to finish the job in Gaza.

Firas Maksad, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute in Washington D.C., says the arguments posed by the candidates during the debate should not be considered their official stance.

“This is American electioneering at its worst,” Maksad said during an appearance on the Arab News current affairs show “Frankly Speaking.” “We all know that American elections tend to be the silly season.

“Candidates will say anything to get elected pretty much, only to turn around and change their position, or at least adjust their position, and in favor of a more nuanced one once they are in fact in the Oval Office. So, I think much of what was said (ought to be taken) with a grain of salt.”




Appearing on “Frankly Speaking,” Firas Maksad, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute in Washington D.C., said the arguments posed by the candidates during the debate should not be considered their official stance. (AN Photo)

Maksad said it was “quite shameful” for Trump to use the term Palestinian in a “derogatory” way in a bid to undermine Biden by painting him as being relatively pro-Palestinian. “This, while both candidates were falling over themselves to demonstrate their support for Israel.”

Maksad, who is also the Middle East Institute’s senior director for strategic outreach, believes the style and tone of the debate is “just the reality of American electoral dynamics” and should not be considered a concrete policy position of either candidate.

“We can take our pick in terms of examples in the past where candidates have said one thing about nations in the Middle East, only to reverse course and even visit these countries once they become elected president,” he said.

One point that commentators were united on following the election debate was how poorly Biden performed — struggling to express his ideas clearly, fumbling over his words, and pausing for long periods, raising fresh doubts about his cognitive ability.

Although Trump is also prone to meandering speeches, commentators agreed the Republican nominee delivered a more concise and agile performance than the Democratic incumbent.

“I think it’s safe to say that most Americans were shell-shocked by the debate that they saw,” Maksad told “Frankly Speaking” host Katie Jensen.

“Going into this, the Democratic Party objective was to make this, first and foremost, about (Trump’s legal woes) rather than on the cognitive ability, or lack thereof, of President Biden.

“I think what we clearly saw was the Trump campaign had a great night, a celebratory night, whereas most of the Democratic operatives, fundraisers, and supporters of the president are left scrambling, wondering whether it’s too late in the game to try and draft in another last-minute, 11th hour candidate.”

Although many commentators said Biden offered more substance in his remarks, his poor delivery appears to have cost him in the eyes of voters.

“I very much had that debate with close friends in the Democratic circle, some of whom had served in the White House, as this debate was ongoing, and they kept pointing out to that very point, which is listen to the substance. Our candidate has much more substance,” Maksad said.

“Trump, in fact, rambles and says very little in terms of substance, not much in terms of specific policy focus and policy options being put on the table here. I think that’s true. I take the point, but I do think that in elections and American elections, how you come across to a voter is equally, if not more, important.

“And it was abundantly apparent that (former) President Trump was the more capable, confident, powerful in his presence on stage in this debate.”

If those watching the debate were hoping to learn more about where the rivals stood on the big foreign policy questions of the day, they would have been sorely disappointed as Biden and Trump focused mainly on domestic issues.

There were, however, some minor indications of similarities and differences on Middle East policy.

“President Biden — very much in favor of diplomacy. Some might say even accommodating Iran in the region, its aspirations,” said Maksad. “President Trump — much more confrontational when it comes to Iran, looking to contain its influence in the region.

“But that’s not to say that there aren’t similarities, too. I think, when it comes to regional integration, a possible normalization between Saudi Arabia and Israel, you see a bipartisanship on these issues here in Washington, D.C.”

Gaza, meanwhile, has become a deeply polarizing issue in the US, even beyond the Arab and Muslim communities, with protests taking place on university campuses across the country.

Asked whether the war is likely to influence the outcome of the election, however, Maksad said it was low down on the list of priorities for the majority of US voters.




If the statements made by US President Joe Biden and his rival Donald Trump during Thursday’s election debate are anything to go by, it will be bad news for the Palestinian people no matter who wins the White House race in November. (AFP)

“I think it’s both unimportant but also very crucial,” he said. “If you take the laundry list of issues for most Americans that they care about, priorities, I don’t think Gaza features anywhere near the top.”

Since the conflict in Gaza began in the wake of the Oct. 7 Hamas-led attack on Israel, there have been fears that the war would spill over into the wider region. Lebanon, in particular, is seen as being especially vulnerable following months of tit-for-tat exchanges between Israel and Hezbollah.

Maksad, who is himself Lebanese and an expert on the nation’s troubled past, believes there are three likely scenarios, as all-out war appears increasingly inevitable.

“One is the current diplomatic efforts that are being spearheaded by Amos Hochstein, President Biden’s envoy on this issue, point person on this issue, who will be visiting areas and coordinating very closely with the French presidential envoy on this matter,” he said.

A diplomatic breakthrough of this kind would mean finding a way for Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah to step back from his position of a permanent ceasefire in Gaza.

“That might be through some Israeli withdrawal from the disputed points along the Blue Line, the border between Israel and Lebanon, northern Gaza being something to watch out for,” Maksad said.

“But if the diplomatic breakthrough that we’re all looking, and hoping, for in the coming weeks does not materialize, scenario two here is a limited war … limited to the deep populated areas of northern Israel and southern Lebanon.

“And the US and French diplomacy would then kick in to try and bring things back with the diplomatic track. And that could help dislodge the current stalemate.”

The “catastrophic scenario,” meanwhile, would be a situation that “starts out as an attempt at a limited conflict, a limited war in northern Israel and south Lebanon, very quickly expands to population centers like Beirut and Haifa and beyond that. And we see the 2006 scenario on steroids where Israel is flattening entire blocks of southern Beirut.”

The UK’s Daily Telegraph newspaper recently suggested that Rafic Hariri International Airport in Beirut is being used by Hezbollah to store and smuggle weapons. Although Hezbollah has denied the allegation, there are fears Israel may use the claims as a justification to bomb the airport.

“I’m not too sure that Israel needs a justification to bomb Beirut International Airport,” said Maksad. “They have done so in the past. They’ve done so repeatedly. They’ve cratered the runways. They have done so as far back as the 1960s when the PLO was the major concern operating out of Lebanon.

“So, there’s a long track record there of Israel targeting Lebanese infrastructure. And I’m not too sure that this particular article in the Telegraph is what the Israelis are looking for.

“But that said, also given my Lebanese ancestry, I mean, I think every Lebanese knows that the airport is by and large under the influence and control of Hezbollah or Hezbollah’s allies.”

He added: “Whether in fact the Telegraph article is accurate in that it’s being used as a storage base for Hezbollah missiles is something that’s beyond my capability in terms of being able to assess that.”

Asked whether Hezbollah is likely to make good on Nasrallah’s threat to attack Cyprus — a country that could host Israeli jets should Israel launch an aerial campaign against Hezbollah — Maksad said he thought the comments were merely intended to signal the potential reach of Iran and its regional proxies in the event of war.

“There are multiple views as to why Hassan Nasrallah chose to include Cyprus in the list of threats he made in his recent speech,” he said.

“I do think that, first and foremost, he was thinking from a military perspective in terms of where Israel, and particularly the air force, might be able to operate from if Hezbollah rained missiles on Israeli airports in the north and hamstrings Israel’s ability to operate against it. And Cyprus is high on that list of alternatives for Israel.

“But I do think that he’s also sending a broader message … which is one about Hezbollah’s ability to intercept and contradict and complicate shipping in the Eastern Mediterranean.

“And so through Hezbollah, you have Iran here very clearly signaling its ability to interdict and disrupt global commerce, not only in Hormuz, not only in Bab Al-Mandeb, but also in the Eastern Mediterranean, arguably as far south as Suez.”




Firas Maksad, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute in Washington D.C., says the arguments posed by the candidates during the debate should not be considered their official stance. (AN Photo)

He added: “This is part of Iran signaling its ability now to project influence and power into the Mediterranean, into the Red Sea and certainly within the Arab and Persian Gulf.”

As turmoil rages in the Middle East at the very moment that the US is turning its attention inward to the looming election, doubts have been raised about the possibility of securing the hotly anticipated deal between the US and Saudi Arabia.

“I see very low prospects of the Saudi-US deal being able to move forward,” said Maksad. “In fact, it will continue to be tethered to an Israeli leg with a precondition of a viable, non-reversible pathway towards a Palestinian state.

“But the politics is simply not there on the Israeli side, but also on the Palestinian side. This is the proposition that is entirely devoid of reality on the Israeli and Palestinian side.

“That said, the deal itself, the bilateral aspects of this deal, are largely negotiated and done. Whether it relates to a defense treaty or civil nuclear cooperation or commerce and AI and cyber, those issues have all been successfully negotiated by both the US and by Riyadh.

“But the issue is that if you are seeking a treaty which requires congressional, mainly Senate ratification, it is difficult to see that being passed in the Senate short of normalization with Israel.

“And normalization with Israel, given the very clear Saudi preconditions on the Palestinian state, or a pathway to a Palestinian state, are simply not there.”

 

 

 


Turkiye’s Erdogan risks alienating voters as PKK peace advances

Updated 2 sec ago
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Turkiye’s Erdogan risks alienating voters as PKK peace advances

Erdogan’s own future is also at stake: his term runs out in 2028 unless parliament backs the idea of early elections
Erdogan’s comments about “walking together” with DEM drew a cool response from the pro-Kurdish party itself

ANKARA: President Tayyip Erdogan risks losing support among nationalist Turkish voters in making peace with Kurdistan Workers Party militants, whose burning of weapons last week was dismissed by some as a stunt.

A backlash to Erdogan’s call on Saturday for wide parliamentary support for the process underlines the challenge he faces in balancing nationalist and Kurdish demands, with a failure to do so potentially jeopardizing the plan’s success.

Erdogan’s own future is also at stake: his term runs out in 2028 unless parliament backs the idea of early elections or a change in the constitution to extend a 22-year rule in which he has raised NATO member Turkiye’s profile on the world stage. He insists that personal political considerations play no role.

“The doors of a new powerful Turkiye have been flung wide open,” he said on Saturday of the symbolic initial handover of arms.

While his AKP party’s far-right nationalist coalition partner MHP drove the peace process, smaller nationalist parties have condemned it. They recalled his years condemning the pro-Kurdish DEM party as being tied to the 40-year PKK insurgency that the PKK now says is over.

Erdogan’s comments about “walking together” with DEM drew a cool response from the pro-Kurdish party itself, with DEM lawmaker Pervin Buldan saying there was no broad political alliance between it and the AKP.

AKP spokesperson Omer Celik reaffirmed the president’s nationalist credentials in response to a request for comment on his statement, saying the process “is not give-and-take, negotiation, or bargaining.”

Parliament is convening a commission tasked with deciding how to address Kurdish demands for more autonomy and the reintegration of fighters complying with the February disarmament call of jailed PKK leader Abdullah Ocalan.

The nationalist opposition IYI Party is refusing to take part, with its leader Musavat Dervisoglu describing the peace process at the weekend as a betrayal after a conflict which has killed more than 40,000 people.

“We will not allow the Republic to be destroyed, we will not allow the Turkish homeland to be divided, we will not surrender to betrayal,” he said.

Umit Ozdag, head of the opposition Victory Party, also sought to stir nationalist passions, slamming the commission as a bid to legitimize the PKK and dismissing the event where 30 PKK members burned their guns as a “barbecue party.”

“You don’t just burn 30 rifles and call it a day. Weapons are surrendered, and PKK members interrogated one-by-one.”

A senior Turkish official said the gun burning was an “irreversible turning point.” It is part of a five-stage process culminating in legal reforms and social reconciliation by early 2026, according to another Turkish source.

NUMBER CRUNCHING
While those parties could not derail the peace process alone, Erdogan, a shrewed political operator, is likely to closely monitor public reaction as the commission starts its work.

A private June survey by the Konda pollster seen by Reuters showed that only 12 percent of respondents believe the PKK, designated as a terrorist group by Turkiye and its Western allies, has abandoned the insurgency that it launched in 1984.

It also showed potential candidates for the opposition CHP, now subject to a wide-ranging legal crackdown, beating Erdogan in head-to-head votes in an election.

Erdogan critics say the peace process is aimed at drawing Kurdish support for a new constitution that would both boost their rights and allow him to be a candidate in 2028. He says reform is needed because the constitution is outdated rather than for any personal reasons and he has not committed to running again.

It is unclear whether the commission will propose constitutional change, but such changes require the support of 400 MPs in the 600-seat assembly with the potential for a referendum if more than 360 MPs vote in favor. The AKP-MHP alliance has 319 seats, while DEM have 56.

Any move to hold early elections would also require 360 votes, but that — and the peace process itself — would depend on keeping DEM on board.

After meeting the justice minister on Wednesday, DEM’s Buldan said she had insisted that PKK disarmament proceed in lock-step with legal changes.

“The minister expressed commitment to ensuring the process proceeds legally and constitutionally,” she said, adding that there was no specific timeline for disarmament.

Paramilitary shelling on camp kills 8 in Sudan’s Darfur: rescuers

Updated 17 July 2025
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Paramilitary shelling on camp kills 8 in Sudan’s Darfur: rescuers

  • The bombardment hit Abu Shouk camp, which hosts tens of thousands of displaced people
  • Thursday’s offensive comes just days after a series of attacks by the RSF targeted another battleground region of Sudan

PORT SUDAN: Paramilitary forces shelled a displacement camp in Sudan’s Darfur region on Thursday, killing eight civilians and injuring others, a local rescue group said.

The bombardment hit Abu Shouk camp, which hosts tens of thousands of displaced people on the outskirts of El Fasher, the besieged capital of North Darfur.

El-Fasher remains the last major stronghold in Sudan’s western Darfur region not under the control of the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), who have been at war with the regular army since April 2023.

“The Abu Shouk camp witnessed heavy artillery bombardment by the RSF... killing eight people,” the camp’s Emergency Response Room said in a statement.

In recent weeks, El-Fasher, which has been under paramilitary siege since last year, has been locked in intense fighting between warring sides in a region also gripped by famine.

Thursday’s offensive comes just days after a series of attacks by the RSF targeted another battleground region of Sudan.

More than 450 people, including 35 children, were killed in several villages of North Kordofan, southwest of the capital Khartoum, according to a statement released this week by the UN’s children agency.

“No child should ever experience such horrors,” said UNICEF Executive Director Catherine Russell. “Violence against children is unconscionable and must end now.”

On Sunday, the RSF claimed to have killed more than 470 army personnel near the town of El-Obeid, also in North Kordofan, in a statement posted to its Telegram channel.

Independent verification of casualties in Sudan remains difficult due to restricted access to its conflict zones.

Now in its third year, the conflict has killed tens of thousands and forced millions to flee, creating what the United Nations describes as the world’s largest displacement crisis.

In December last year, famine was officially declared in three displacement camps near El-Fasher, namely Zamzam, Abu Shouk and Al-Salam, according to the UN.

Since the Sudanese army regained control of the capital Khartoum in March, the RSF has shifted its operations westward, focusing on Darfur and Kordofan in a bid to consolidate territorial gains.

In April, RSF fighters seized the Zamzam displacement camp, located near Abu Shouk.

The assault forced nearly 400,000 people to flee, according to UN figures, effectively emptying one of the country’s largest camps for the displaced.

Sudanese analyst Mohaned el-Nour told AFP the RSF aims to redefine its role in the conflict.

“Their goal is no longer to be seen as a militia, but as an alternative government in western Sudan, undermining the legitimacy of the authorities in Port Sudan.”

He added that the recent surge in violence in North Kordofan was likely intended to divert the army’s attention from El Fasher, where the military is trying “at all costs” to maintain.


Europe’s largest missile maker supplying parts to Israel for bombs used in Gaza

Updated 17 July 2025
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Europe’s largest missile maker supplying parts to Israel for bombs used in Gaza

  • GBU-39 bombs identified as having killed civilians, including children
  • UN special rapporteur: ‘Genocide continues because it is lucrative for many’

LONDON: Parts made by Europe’s largest missile maker are being used in bombs launched by Israel in airstrikes on Gaza, an investigation has found.

A joint report by The Guardian, Disclose and Follow the Money discovered that components produced by MBDA are used to construct the GBU-39 bomb. 

Wing-like parts, called Diamond-Blacks and manufactured at MBDA’s plant in Alabama, are fitted to the 250 lb GBU-39, which is made by Boeing, allowing the bomb to manoeuver mid-air toward targets. 

The GBU-39 is sent to Israel as part of the US military aid program, bought directly from Boeing and transferred from American military stocks.
Deployed aerially from fighter jets over combat zones, an estimated 4,800 have been sent to Israel since the Gaza war began in October 2023.

Open-source analysis found that the weapon has been deployed at least 24 times in Gaza in incidents where civilians, including children, were killed.
The attacks often came at night, targeting shelters including school buildings, camps and a mosque. At least 500 people have been killed in the identified cases, including more than 100 children.

The UN and Amnesty International have both raised concerns that a number of incidents involving GBU-39s amount to war crimes.

Donatella Rovera, a senior investigator at Amnesty, told The Guardian: “Those launching attacks have a legal duty to take precautions so as to avoid harming civilians — even in cases where there may be a military target at the location — including by not striking locations full of civilians.”

Last year, Foreign Secretary David Lammy suspended a number of arms export licenses to Israel over fears that UK-made equipment could be used to commit “serious violations” of international law in Gaza.

But campaigners told The Guardian that the use of Diamond-Black wings, manufactured in the US, shows the limits of the UK government’s measures, which cannot ban the export of items made overseas by sister companies of British firms.

Francesca Albanese, UN special rapporteur on human rights in the occupied Palestinian territories, said in a report last month that numerous private sector firms continue to arm Israel despite warnings of human rights violations, war crimes and genocide in Gaza. 

“The present report shows why the genocide carried out by Israel continues: because it is lucrative for many,” she added.

Sam Perlo-Freeman, research coordinator at Campaign Against the Arms Trade, told The Guardian: “We would support the UK government taking all actions that are within their powers to stop the genocide.
“Beyond an arms embargo, this includes sanctions on companies arming Israel, banning UK investments in such companies.”

MBDA’s code of ethics states that it is “committed to taking the utmost care in identifying and preventing negative direct and indirect impacts our activities may have on human rights, fundamental freedoms and people health and safety.”


Israeli strikes on south Lebanon kill two

Updated 17 July 2025
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Israeli strikes on south Lebanon kill two

  • Two people were killed Thursday in separate Israeli strikes on south Lebanon, the Lebanese health ministry said

BEIRUT: Two people were killed Thursday in separate Israeli strikes on south Lebanon, the Lebanese health ministry said, in the latest attacks despite a ceasefire between Israel and Iran-backed Hezbollah.
The ministry said that “an Israeli drone strike targeted a car” in the Nabatiyeh district, killing one person and wounding two others.
Another strike “targeted a truck in the town of Naqura” in southern Lebanon “resulting in one martyr,” it said in a statement.
The Israeli army did not immediately comment on the incidents.
Israel has repeatedly bombed Lebanon despite a November ceasefire seeking to end over a year of hostilities with Lebanese armed group Hezbollah.
Under the agreement, Hezbollah was to pull its fighters back north of the Litani river, about 30 kilometers (20 miles) from the Israeli border, leaving the Lebanese army and United Nations peacekeepers as the only armed parties in the region.
Israel was required to fully withdraw its troops from the country but has kept them in five places it deems strategic.


Belgian court orders regional government to stop military exports to Israel

Updated 17 July 2025
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Belgian court orders regional government to stop military exports to Israel

  • Belgian court orders regional government to stop military exports to Israel, Belga reports

BRUSSELS: A court in Brussels on Thursday ordered the regional Flemish government to stop all transit of military equipment to Israel, Belgian news agency Belga reported.
The region is home to the Antwerp-Bruges port — one of the largest in Europe.