Frankly Speaking: The Arab verdict on the US election debate

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Updated 30 June 2024
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Frankly Speaking: The Arab verdict on the US election debate

  • Middle East Institute Senior Fellow Firas Maksad shares his assessment of, and key takeaways from, recent Biden-Trump debate
  • Describes how the Gaza war might impact US election outcome, offers three scenarios for a Hezbollah-Israel full-scale war

DUBAI: If the statements made by US President Joe Biden and his rival Donald Trump during Thursday’s election debate are anything to go by, it will be bad news for the Palestinian people no matter who wins the White House race in November.

Indeed, in the first televised head to head of the US election campaign, Biden reiterated his commitment to siding with Israel in the war in Gaza and accused Hamas of resisting efforts to end the conflict.

For his part, Trump called Biden “a weak and a very bad Palestinian” — using the name of the national group as a slur — and argued that Israel should be given a free hand to finish the job in Gaza.

Firas Maksad, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute in Washington D.C., says the arguments posed by the candidates during the debate should not be considered their official stance.

“This is American electioneering at its worst,” Maksad said during an appearance on the Arab News current affairs show “Frankly Speaking.” “We all know that American elections tend to be the silly season.

“Candidates will say anything to get elected pretty much, only to turn around and change their position, or at least adjust their position, and in favor of a more nuanced one once they are in fact in the Oval Office. So, I think much of what was said (ought to be taken) with a grain of salt.”




Appearing on “Frankly Speaking,” Firas Maksad, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute in Washington D.C., said the arguments posed by the candidates during the debate should not be considered their official stance. (AN Photo)

Maksad said it was “quite shameful” for Trump to use the term Palestinian in a “derogatory” way in a bid to undermine Biden by painting him as being relatively pro-Palestinian. “This, while both candidates were falling over themselves to demonstrate their support for Israel.”

Maksad, who is also the Middle East Institute’s senior director for strategic outreach, believes the style and tone of the debate is “just the reality of American electoral dynamics” and should not be considered a concrete policy position of either candidate.

“We can take our pick in terms of examples in the past where candidates have said one thing about nations in the Middle East, only to reverse course and even visit these countries once they become elected president,” he said.

One point that commentators were united on following the election debate was how poorly Biden performed — struggling to express his ideas clearly, fumbling over his words, and pausing for long periods, raising fresh doubts about his cognitive ability.

Although Trump is also prone to meandering speeches, commentators agreed the Republican nominee delivered a more concise and agile performance than the Democratic incumbent.

“I think it’s safe to say that most Americans were shell-shocked by the debate that they saw,” Maksad told “Frankly Speaking” host Katie Jensen.

“Going into this, the Democratic Party objective was to make this, first and foremost, about (Trump’s legal woes) rather than on the cognitive ability, or lack thereof, of President Biden.

“I think what we clearly saw was the Trump campaign had a great night, a celebratory night, whereas most of the Democratic operatives, fundraisers, and supporters of the president are left scrambling, wondering whether it’s too late in the game to try and draft in another last-minute, 11th hour candidate.”

Although many commentators said Biden offered more substance in his remarks, his poor delivery appears to have cost him in the eyes of voters.

“I very much had that debate with close friends in the Democratic circle, some of whom had served in the White House, as this debate was ongoing, and they kept pointing out to that very point, which is listen to the substance. Our candidate has much more substance,” Maksad said.

“Trump, in fact, rambles and says very little in terms of substance, not much in terms of specific policy focus and policy options being put on the table here. I think that’s true. I take the point, but I do think that in elections and American elections, how you come across to a voter is equally, if not more, important.

“And it was abundantly apparent that (former) President Trump was the more capable, confident, powerful in his presence on stage in this debate.”

If those watching the debate were hoping to learn more about where the rivals stood on the big foreign policy questions of the day, they would have been sorely disappointed as Biden and Trump focused mainly on domestic issues.

There were, however, some minor indications of similarities and differences on Middle East policy.

“President Biden — very much in favor of diplomacy. Some might say even accommodating Iran in the region, its aspirations,” said Maksad. “President Trump — much more confrontational when it comes to Iran, looking to contain its influence in the region.

“But that’s not to say that there aren’t similarities, too. I think, when it comes to regional integration, a possible normalization between Saudi Arabia and Israel, you see a bipartisanship on these issues here in Washington, D.C.”

Gaza, meanwhile, has become a deeply polarizing issue in the US, even beyond the Arab and Muslim communities, with protests taking place on university campuses across the country.

Asked whether the war is likely to influence the outcome of the election, however, Maksad said it was low down on the list of priorities for the majority of US voters.




If the statements made by US President Joe Biden and his rival Donald Trump during Thursday’s election debate are anything to go by, it will be bad news for the Palestinian people no matter who wins the White House race in November. (AFP)

“I think it’s both unimportant but also very crucial,” he said. “If you take the laundry list of issues for most Americans that they care about, priorities, I don’t think Gaza features anywhere near the top.”

Since the conflict in Gaza began in the wake of the Oct. 7 Hamas-led attack on Israel, there have been fears that the war would spill over into the wider region. Lebanon, in particular, is seen as being especially vulnerable following months of tit-for-tat exchanges between Israel and Hezbollah.

Maksad, who is himself Lebanese and an expert on the nation’s troubled past, believes there are three likely scenarios, as all-out war appears increasingly inevitable.

“One is the current diplomatic efforts that are being spearheaded by Amos Hochstein, President Biden’s envoy on this issue, point person on this issue, who will be visiting areas and coordinating very closely with the French presidential envoy on this matter,” he said.

A diplomatic breakthrough of this kind would mean finding a way for Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah to step back from his position of a permanent ceasefire in Gaza.

“That might be through some Israeli withdrawal from the disputed points along the Blue Line, the border between Israel and Lebanon, northern Gaza being something to watch out for,” Maksad said.

“But if the diplomatic breakthrough that we’re all looking, and hoping, for in the coming weeks does not materialize, scenario two here is a limited war … limited to the deep populated areas of northern Israel and southern Lebanon.

“And the US and French diplomacy would then kick in to try and bring things back with the diplomatic track. And that could help dislodge the current stalemate.”

The “catastrophic scenario,” meanwhile, would be a situation that “starts out as an attempt at a limited conflict, a limited war in northern Israel and south Lebanon, very quickly expands to population centers like Beirut and Haifa and beyond that. And we see the 2006 scenario on steroids where Israel is flattening entire blocks of southern Beirut.”

The UK’s Daily Telegraph newspaper recently suggested that Rafic Hariri International Airport in Beirut is being used by Hezbollah to store and smuggle weapons. Although Hezbollah has denied the allegation, there are fears Israel may use the claims as a justification to bomb the airport.

“I’m not too sure that Israel needs a justification to bomb Beirut International Airport,” said Maksad. “They have done so in the past. They’ve done so repeatedly. They’ve cratered the runways. They have done so as far back as the 1960s when the PLO was the major concern operating out of Lebanon.

“So, there’s a long track record there of Israel targeting Lebanese infrastructure. And I’m not too sure that this particular article in the Telegraph is what the Israelis are looking for.

“But that said, also given my Lebanese ancestry, I mean, I think every Lebanese knows that the airport is by and large under the influence and control of Hezbollah or Hezbollah’s allies.”

He added: “Whether in fact the Telegraph article is accurate in that it’s being used as a storage base for Hezbollah missiles is something that’s beyond my capability in terms of being able to assess that.”

Asked whether Hezbollah is likely to make good on Nasrallah’s threat to attack Cyprus — a country that could host Israeli jets should Israel launch an aerial campaign against Hezbollah — Maksad said he thought the comments were merely intended to signal the potential reach of Iran and its regional proxies in the event of war.

“There are multiple views as to why Hassan Nasrallah chose to include Cyprus in the list of threats he made in his recent speech,” he said.

“I do think that, first and foremost, he was thinking from a military perspective in terms of where Israel, and particularly the air force, might be able to operate from if Hezbollah rained missiles on Israeli airports in the north and hamstrings Israel’s ability to operate against it. And Cyprus is high on that list of alternatives for Israel.

“But I do think that he’s also sending a broader message … which is one about Hezbollah’s ability to intercept and contradict and complicate shipping in the Eastern Mediterranean.

“And so through Hezbollah, you have Iran here very clearly signaling its ability to interdict and disrupt global commerce, not only in Hormuz, not only in Bab Al-Mandeb, but also in the Eastern Mediterranean, arguably as far south as Suez.”




Firas Maksad, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute in Washington D.C., says the arguments posed by the candidates during the debate should not be considered their official stance. (AN Photo)

He added: “This is part of Iran signaling its ability now to project influence and power into the Mediterranean, into the Red Sea and certainly within the Arab and Persian Gulf.”

As turmoil rages in the Middle East at the very moment that the US is turning its attention inward to the looming election, doubts have been raised about the possibility of securing the hotly anticipated deal between the US and Saudi Arabia.

“I see very low prospects of the Saudi-US deal being able to move forward,” said Maksad. “In fact, it will continue to be tethered to an Israeli leg with a precondition of a viable, non-reversible pathway towards a Palestinian state.

“But the politics is simply not there on the Israeli side, but also on the Palestinian side. This is the proposition that is entirely devoid of reality on the Israeli and Palestinian side.

“That said, the deal itself, the bilateral aspects of this deal, are largely negotiated and done. Whether it relates to a defense treaty or civil nuclear cooperation or commerce and AI and cyber, those issues have all been successfully negotiated by both the US and by Riyadh.

“But the issue is that if you are seeking a treaty which requires congressional, mainly Senate ratification, it is difficult to see that being passed in the Senate short of normalization with Israel.

“And normalization with Israel, given the very clear Saudi preconditions on the Palestinian state, or a pathway to a Palestinian state, are simply not there.”

 

 

 


Israel strikes Lebanon after discussing ‘Iranian threat’ with Trump

Updated 10 sec ago
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Israel strikes Lebanon after discussing ‘Iranian threat’ with Trump

JERUSALEM: Israel launched fresh strikes on south Beirut early Thursday, hours after Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and US president-elect Donald Trump spoke about the “Iranian threat.”
The Israeli premier was one of the first world leaders to congratulate Trump, calling the re-election “history’s greatest comeback.”
Over the phone on Wednesday, the pair “agreed to work together for Israel’s security” and “discussed the Iranian threat,” Netanyahu’s office said in a statement.
Not long afterwards, the Israeli military launched its latest strikes on Iran-backed Hezbollah’s main bastion of south Beirut, with AFP footage showing orange flashes and plumes of smoke over the densely populated suburb.
The Israeli army had issued evacuation orders ahead of the strikes, calling on people to leave four neighborhoods, including one near the international airport.
In Lebanon’s east, the country’s health ministry said Israeli strikes on Wednesday killed 40 people, with rescuers combing the rubble for survivors.
“The series of Israeli enemy strikes on the Bekaa Valley and Baalbek” killed “40 people and injured 53,” the ministry said in a statement.
Hezbollah had pledged the result of the US election would have no bearing on the war, which escalated in September as the Israeli military widened its focus from Gaza to securing its northern border with Lebanon.
In a televised speech recorded before Trump’s victory but aired afterwards, new Hezbollah chief Naim Qassem said: “We have tens of thousands of trained resistance combatants” ready to fight.
“What will stop this... war is the battlefield,” he said.
Qassem, who became Hezbollah secretary-general last week, warned that nowhere in Israel would be “off-limits.”
Hezbollah announced Wednesday it had Iran-made Fatah 110 missiles, a weapon with a 300-kilometer (186-mile) range that military expert Riad Kahwaji described as the group’s “most accurate.”
The group claimed a slew of attacks on Israel on Wednesday, including two that targeted naval bases near the Israeli city of Haifa and two near commercial hub Tel Aviv.
Hezbollah began its low-intensity cross-border campaign last year in support of ally Hamas after the Palestinian militants’ October 7 attack on Israel.
Israel escalated its air raids on Hezbollah strongholds in south Lebanon, Beirut and the eastern Bekaa Valley from September 23, sending in ground troops a week later.
More than a year of fighting in Lebanon has killed at least 3,050 people, the health ministry said Wednesday.
Ceasefire efforts
Efforts to end the conflicts in Gaza and neighboring Lebanon have so far repeatedly failed.
While US President Joe Biden’s administration has piled pressure on Netanyahu to agree to a truce, Washington sustained its political and military backing of Israel.
Many see Trump’s White House return as a possible boon for Israel.
All US presidents “are in favor of the State of Israel,” a man in east Jerusalem told AFP, asking to be identified only by his nickname Abu Mohammed.
Under Trump, “nothing will change except more decline.”
During his campaign, Trump touted himself as Israel’s strongest ally, going so far as to say Biden should let Israel “finish the job” against Hamas in Gaza.
“Trump’s return to power... will lead us to hell and there will be a greater and more difficult escalation,” said a school principal in the West Bank city of Ramallah.
Recent surveys have shown that a majority of Israelis, 66 percent according to one conducted by Israel’s Channel 12 News, were hoping to see Trump triumph.
Analysts said Netanyahu also wanted Trump’s return, given their longstanding personal friendship and the American’s hawkishness on Iran.
During his first term in office, Trump moved the US embassy to Jerusalem, recognized Israeli sovereignty over the occupied Golan Heights and helped normalize ties between Israel and several Arab states under the so-called Abraham Accords.
But some experts cautioned against prematurely assuming Trump’s position on “Israel’s treatment of Palestinians.”
“It’s not necessarily clear that he would kind of just stand aside while Israel continues to de facto annex the West Bank,” said Mairav Zonszein from the International Crisis Group.
Prospects of Peace in Trump’s US
Egypt, the first Arab state to sign a peace deal with Israel and one of the mediators in the stymied Gaza truce talks, also congratulated Trump.
President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi told Trump in a call that Cairo would work with him “to contribute to stability, peace and development in the Middle East.”
In Gaza, where the war has displaced most residents, caused widespread hunger and death, and devastated hospitals, some clung to hope with a change in the US administration.
“There’s nothing left for us, we want peace,” said 60-year-old Mamdouh Al-Jadba, who was displaced to Gaza City from Jabalia.
The UN said Wednesday its polio vaccination campaign in Gaza had ended, with more than half a million children vaccinated despite the war.
Hamas’s October 7, 2023 attack that started the war resulted in 1,206 deaths, mostly civilians, according to an AFP tally of Israeli official figures.
Israel’s retaliatory campaign has killed 43,391 people in Gaza, a majority of them civilians, according to figures from the Hamas-run territory’s health ministry, which the United Nations considers reliable.

Israel, WHO say evacuated dozens of Gazans for medical care

Updated 07 November 2024
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Israel, WHO say evacuated dozens of Gazans for medical care

  • The WHO said the “patients included those with autoimmune diseases, blood diseases, cancer, kidney conditions and trauma injuries”

JERUSALEM: Israel and the World Health Organization said more than 200 Gazans, both patients and their carers, were evacuated to the United Arab Emirates or Romania Wednesday for medical treatment.
In total, the group numbered some 230 people, according to the WHO and COGAT, the Israeli defense ministry body responsible for civil affairs in the Palestinian territories.
“This is the largest number of patients and caregivers who have left through the Kerem Shalom crossing in recent months,” COGAT said in a statement.
The operation was carried out in cooperation with the UAE, the European Union and the WHO, it added.
The WHO said the “patients included those with autoimmune diseases, blood diseases, cancer, kidney conditions and trauma injuries.”
The patients were transferred from Gaza via the Kerem Shalom crossing into Israel, and then to Ramon Airport near Eilat in southern Israel.
The WHO’s representative in the Palestinian territories, Rik Peeperkorn, had said Tuesday that those on the evacuation list were among up to 14,000 people currently waiting in Gaza to be evacuated for medical reasons.
Hamas’s October 7, 2023 attack on Israel resulted in the deaths of 1,206 people, mostly civilians, according to an AFP tally of Israeli official figures.
Israel’s retaliatory campaign has killed 43,391 people in Gaza, a majority of them civilians, according to Gaza health ministry figures which the United Nations considers to be reliable.
The ministry also lists 102,347 people as having been wounded in the Gaza Strip since the war began.
Peeperkorn said Tuesday that fewer than 5,000 people had been granted medical evacuations out of the territory since the war began.


Gazans want Donald Trump to end war

Updated 07 November 2024
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Gazans want Donald Trump to end war

  • Israel demolishes seven Palestinian homes in East Jerusalem, declaring them ‘illegal’

GAZA, JERUSALEM: Palestinians in Gaza want Donald Trump, who won the US election, to end the war between Israel and Hamas that has devastated their territory.

“We were displaced, killed ... there’s nothing left for us, we want peace,” Mamdouh Al-Jadba, who was displaced to Gaza City from Jabalia, said.

“I hope Trump finds a solution, we need someone strong like Trump to end the war and save us, enough, God, this is enough,” said the 60-year-old. “I was displaced three times, my house was destroyed, my children are homeless in the south ... There’s nothing left, Gaza is finished.”

Umm Ahmed Harb, from the Al-Shaaf area east of Gaza City, was also counting on Trump to “stand by our side” and end the territory’s suffering.

“God willing the war will end, not for our sake but for the sake of our young children who are innocent, they were martyred and are dying of hunger,” she said.

“We cannot buy anything with the high prices (of food). We are here in fear, terror and death.”

For Palestinians in the occupied West Bank, where violence has also surged since October last year, Trump’s victory was reason to fear for the future.

“Trump is firm in some decisions, but these decisions could serve Israel’s interests politically more than they serve the Palestinian cause,” said Samir Abu Jundi, a 60-year-old in the city of Ramallah.

Another man who identified himself only by his nickname, Abu Mohammed, said he also saw no reason to believe Trump’s victory would be in favor of the Palestinians, saying “nothing will change except more decline.”

Imad Fakhida, a school principal in the main West Bank city of Ramallah, said “Trump’s return to power ... will lead us to hell and there will be a greater and more difficult escalation.”

He added: “He is known for his complete and greatest support for Israel.”

During his campaign for a return to the White House, Trump said Gaza, which is located on the eastern Mediterranean, could be “better than Monaco.”

He also said he would have responded the same way as Israel did following the Oct. 7 attack, while urging the US ally to “get the job done” because it was “losing a lot of support.”

More broadly he has promised to bring an end to raging international crises, even saying he could “stop wars with a telephone call.”

In Gaza, such statements gave reason for hope. “We expect peace to come and the war to end with Trump because in his election campaign he said that he wants peace and calls for stopping the wars on Gaza and the Middle East,” said Ibrahim Alian, 33, from Gaza City.

Like many of the territory’s residents, Alian has been displaced several times by the fighting. He said he also lost his father to the war.

“God willing the war on the Gaza Strip will end and the situation will change,” he said.

Meanwhile, municipal workers demolished seven homes in occupied East Jerusalem’s Silwan neighborhood on Tuesday, Palestinian residents and the municipality said, after an Israeli court called their construction illegal.

“This morning the Jerusalem municipality, with a security escort from the Israel police, began its enforcement against illegal buildings in the Al-Bustan neighborhood in Silwan,” Jerusalem’s Israeli-controlled city hall said in a statement.


UN says Gaza polio vaccination campaign complete

Updated 06 November 2024
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UN says Gaza polio vaccination campaign complete

  • The second round of the polio vaccination campaign in the Gaza Strip was completed Tuesday, with an overall 556,774 children under the age of 10 being vaccinated
  • An estimated 7,000 to 10,000 children are stuck in “inaccessible areas” in the north and “remain unvaccinated”

JERUSALEM: The UN said Wednesday its Gaza child polio vaccination drive was complete, with more than half a million children vaccinated despite the Israel-Hamas war raging in the Palestinian territory.
The World Health Organization and the United Nations children’s agency UNICEF launched a second round of vaccinations in northern Gaza on Saturday after Israeli bombing halted an earlier attempt to do so.
“The second round of the polio vaccination campaign in the Gaza Strip was completed yesterday (Tuesday), with an overall 556,774 children under the age of 10 being vaccinated with a second dose,” said a joint statement.
It “is a remarkable achievement given the extremely difficult circumstances the campaign was executed under.”
Israel’s military has pounded northern Gaza for weeks in a major offensive it says is aimed at stopping Hamas militants from regrouping.
An estimated 7,000 to 10,000 children are stuck in “inaccessible areas” in the north and “remain unvaccinated and vulnerable to the poliovirus,” the UN organizations said.
The vaccination campaign had been a “success,” according to a statement Wednesday from COGAT, the Israeli defense ministry body that manages civilian affairs in the Palestinian territories.
The drive began on September 1 with a successful first round, after the besieged territory confirmed its first polio case in 25 years.
Typically spread through sewage and contaminated water, poliovirus is highly infectious.
It can cause deformities and paralysis and is potentially fatal, mainly affecting children aged under five.
The vaccination campaign was managed primarily by UN agencies including the WHO, UNICEF and UNRWA — the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees.
Last month Israel’s parliament adopted a law banning UNRWA’s activities on Israeli territory.
The aid agency remains “the largest primary health care provider in the Gaza Strip,” according to Louise Wateridge, UNRWA’s senior emergency officer.
The WHO said Saturday four children were among six people wounded in a strike on a polio vaccination center in northern Gaza.
It was unclear who carried out the attack.
The UN agencies on Wednesday again called for a ceasefire.
“Humanitarian pauses... must be systematically applied beyond the polio emergency response efforts to other health and humanitarian interventions to respond to dire needs,” they said.


Hezbollah says attacked Israel naval base with drones, missiles

Updated 07 November 2024
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Hezbollah says attacked Israel naval base with drones, missiles

  • Hezbollah fighters “targeted the Stella Maris naval base northwest of Haifa with a salvo of high-quality missiles and a squadron of attack drones,” the group said
  • In the evening, it said it targeted a base south of Tel Aviv, also for the first time

BEIRUT: Lebanon’s Hezbollah group claimed a slew of attacks on Wednesday, including two that targeted naval bases near the Israeli city of Haifa and two near Tel Aviv.
Hezbollah fighters “targeted the Stella Maris naval base northwest of Haifa with a salvo of high-quality missiles and a squadron of attack drones,” the group said in a statement.
It was the fourth attack on the base in as many weeks.
Later Wednesday, Hezbollah said it launched “attack drones on the Haifa naval base in Haifa Bay, for the first time.”
In the evening, it said it targeted a base south of Tel Aviv, also for the first time.
Earlier, Hezbollah said it attacked a base near the country’s main international airport close to Tel Aviv.
The Israel Airports Authority said operations at the airport were not affected by the attack.
Hezbollah began low-intensity cross-border attacks on Israel in support of its Palestinian ally Hamas following its October 7, 2023 attack on Israel.
More than a year of clashes that escalated into war in September have killed at least 3,050 people in Lebanon, according to health ministry figures.