Explainer: How the French snap election runoff works and what comes next

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Marie-Caroline Le Pen, leader of the far right National Rally, casts her ballot in Henin-Beaumont, northern France, on June 30, 2024. (AFP
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​ Green Party leader Marine Tondelier speaks at Republique plaza in Paris during a protest against the far-right National Rally, which came out strongly ahead in first-round legislative elections. (AP)
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People gather at Republique square in Paris to protest the far-right National Rally on June 30, 2024 in Paris. (AP)
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Updated 01 July 2024
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Explainer: How the French snap election runoff works and what comes next

  • If the National Rally or another political force than his centrist alliance gets a majority, Macron will be forced to appoint a prime minister belonging to that new majority
  • In such a situation — called “cohabitation” in France — the government would implement policies that diverge from the president’s plan

PARIS: French voters face a decisive choice on July 7 in the runoff of snap parliamentary elections that could see the country’s first far-right government since the World War II Nazi occupation — or no majority emerging at all.
Projections by polling agencies suggest the far-right National Rally stands a good chance of winning a majority in the lower house of parliament for the first time, but the outcome remains uncertain amid the complex voting system.

In Sunday’s first round, the National Rally arrived ahead with an estimated one-third of the votes. The New Popular Front coalition that includes center-left, greens and hard-left forces came out in second position, ahead of President Emmanuel Macron’s centrist alliance.
Here’s a closer look:
How does it work?
The French system is complex and not proportionate to nationwide support for a party. Legislators are elected by district.
Over 60 candidates who won at least 50 percent of Sunday’s vote have been elected outright.

In addition, the top two contenders, alongside anyone else who won support from more than 12.5 percent of registered voters, are qualified for the second round.

In many districts, three people made it to the second round, though some tactics to block far-right candidates have already been announced: The left-wing coalition said it would withdraw its candidates in districts when they arrived in third position in order to support other politicians opposed to the far right. Macron’s centrist alliance also said some of its candidates would step down before the runoff to block the National Rally.
This makes the result of the second round uncertain, despite polls showing that the National Rally party has a good chance to win an absolute majority, that is at least 289 out of the 577 seats.

The National Assembly, the lower house, is the more powerful of France’s two houses of parliament. It has the final say in the law-making process over the Senate, dominated by conservatives.
Macron has a presidential mandate until 2027, and said he would not step down before the end of his term.
What’s cohabitation?
If the National Rally or another political force than his centrist alliance gets a majority, Macron will be forced to appoint a prime minister belonging to that new majority.
In such a situation — called “cohabitation” in France — the government would implement policies that diverge from the president’s plan.

France’s modern Republic has experienced three cohabitations, the last one under conservative President Jacques Chirac, with Socialist Prime Minister Lionel Jospin, from 1997 to 2002.
The prime minister is accountable to the parliament, leads the government and introduces bills.
“In case of cohabitation, policies implemented are essentially those of the prime minister,” political historian Jean Garrigues said.




France’s President Emmanuel Macron leaves the polling booth prior to cast his vote at a polling station in Le Touquet, northern France on June 30, 2024. (POOL/AFP)

The president is weakened at home during cohabitation, but still holds some powers over foreign policy, European affairs and defense because he is in charge of negotiating and ratifying international treaties. The president is also the commander-in-chief of the country’s armed forces, and is the one holding the nuclear codes.
“It’s possible for the president to prevent or temporarily suspend the implementation of a certain number of the prime minister’s projects, since he has the power to sign or not sign the government’s ordinances or decrees,” Garrigues added.
“Yet the prime minister has the power to submit these ordinances and decrees to a vote of the National Assembly, thus overriding the president’s reluctance,” he noted.
Who leads defense and foreign policies?
During previous cohabitations, defense and foreign policies were considered the informal “reserved field” of the president, who was usually able to find compromises with the prime minister to allow France to speak with one voice abroad.
Yet today, both the far-right and the leftist coalition’s views in these areas differ radically from Macron’s approach and would likely be a subject of tension during a potential cohabitation.
According to the Constitution, while “the president is the head of the military, it’s the prime minister who has the armed forces at his disposal,” Garrigues said.
“In the diplomatic field also, the president’s perimeter is considerably restricted,” Garrigues added.




Jordan Bardella, president of the French far-right National Rally party, reacts on stage after partial results in the first round of the early French parliamentary elections in Paris on June 30, 2024. (REUTERS)

Far-right leader Jordan Bardella, who could becomes prime minister if his party wins the majority of the seats, said he intends “to be a cohabitation prime minister who is respectful of the Constitution and of the President of the Republic’s role but uncompromising about the policies we will implement.”
Bardella said that if he were to become prime minister, he would oppose sending French troops to Ukraine — a possibility Macron has not ruled out. Bardella also said he would refuse French deliveries of long-range missiles and other weaponry capable of striking targets within Russia itself.
What happens if there’s no majority?
The president can name a prime minister from the parliamentary group with the most seats at the National Assembly — this was the case of Macron’s own centrist alliance since 2022.
Yet the National Rally already said it would reject such an option, because it would mean a far-right government could soon be overthrown through a no-confidence vote if other political parties join together.
The president could try to build a broad coalition from the left to the right, an option that sounds unlikely, given the political divergences.
Prime Minister Gabriel Attal hoped Sunday to be able to have enough centrist lawmakers to build “a majority of projects and ideas” with other “Republican forces,” which may include those from the center-left and the center-right.




French Prime Minister Gabriel Attal delivers a speech in the courtyard of the Prime Minister’s residence in Paris on June 30, 2024. (AP)

Experts say another complex option would be to appoint “a government of experts” unaffiliated with political parties but which would still need to be accepted by a majority at the National Assembly. Such a government would likely deal mostly with day-to-day affairs rather than implementing major reforms.
If political talks take too long amid summer holidays and the July 26-Aug. 11 Olympics in Paris, Garrigues said a “transition period” is not ruled out, during which Macron’s centrist government would “still be in charge of current affairs,” pending further decisions.
“Whatever the National Assembly looks like, it seems that the Constitution of the 5th Republic is flexible enough to survive these complex circumstances,” Melody Mock-Gruet, a public law expert teaching at Sciences Po Paris, said in a written note. “Institutions are more solid than they appear, even when faced with this experimental exercise.”
“Yet there remains another unknown in the equation: the population’s ability to accept the situation,” Mock-Gruet wrote.


Russia breaches frontline river in east Ukraine, official says

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Russia breaches frontline river in east Ukraine, official says

The Oskil river is the de-facto front line in parts of the eastern Kharkiv region
The major of the local hub, Kupiansk, said the situation was “extremely difficult”

KYIV: Russian forces have established a bridgehead on the Ukrainian-held side of a frontline river in the east of the country, a local official said Thursday, pointing to Kyiv’s mounting battlefield struggles.
The Oskil river is the de-facto front line in parts of the eastern Kharkiv region, with Ukrainian troops entrenched mainly on the western bank and Russian forces moving to capture the eastern side.
Kremlin forces have been launching audacious attempts to cross, and local Ukrainian official Andrii Besedin told state television Thursday they had managed to cross and establish positions.
“The enemy is trying to gain a foothold in the town of Dvorichna, which is already on the right bank of the Oskil, and expand the entire bridgehead,” he said.
Besedin, the major of the local hub, Kupiansk, said the situation was “extremely difficult” and warned that Russian troops could use the bridgehead to flank Ukrainian positions.
He said Russian forces were now just two kilometers (about one mile) outside of Kupiansk, which was one of the main prizes of a Ukrainian counteroffensive in late 2022.
“The enemy is constantly trying to carry out assault operations,” he said.
The advances conceded by the local official come at a precarious time for Ukrainian forces across the sprawling front, where Russian forces have been advancing at their fastest pace in around two years.
If Russia captures more territory around Kupiansk or in the wider Kharkiv area it would undo gains that Ukraine secured in a sweeping 2022 offensive that embarrassed the Kremlin.
Both sides are looking to secure a better position on the battlefield before incoming US president Donald Trump’s January 20 inauguration, almost three years after Russia invaded.

Putin says more needs to be done to clean up Black Sea oil spill

Updated 09 January 2025
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Putin says more needs to be done to clean up Black Sea oil spill

  • The oil leaked from two aging tankers after they were hit by a storm on Dec. 15 in the Kerch Strait
  • One sank and the other ran aground

MOSCOW: Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Thursday that more needed to be done to clean up an oil spill in the Black Sea, saying efforts so far appeared to have been insufficient to deal with the ecological disaster.
The oil leaked from two aging tankers after they were hit by a storm on Dec. 15 in the Kerch Strait. One sank and the other ran aground.
Approximately 2,400 metric tons of oil products spilled into the sea, Russian investigators said last week, in what Putin on Thursday called “one of the most serious environmental challenges we have faced in years.”
When the disaster struck, state media reported that the stricken tankers, both more than 50-years old, were carrying some 9,200 metric tons (62,000 barrels) of oil products in total.
Since the spill, thousands of emergency workers and volunteers have been working to clear tons of contaminated sand and earth on either side of the Kerch Strait. Environmental groups have reported deaths of dolphins, porpoises and sea birds.
The Kerch Strait runs between the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov and separates Crimea’s Kerch Peninsula from Russia’s Krasnodar region.
Putin told a government meeting that the clean-up efforts had been poorly coordinated between regional and federal bodies.
“From what I see and from the information I receive, I conclude that everything being done to minimize the damage is clearly not enough yet,” the Kremlin leader told officials.
He called for a commission to be formed to mitigate the disaster and prevent oil products from leaking from flooded tankers in the future.


Firefighters battle devastating Los Angeles wildfires as winds calm somewhat

Updated 09 January 2025
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Firefighters battle devastating Los Angeles wildfires as winds calm somewhat

  • Ferocious winds that drove the flames and led to chaotic evacuations have calmed somewhat and were not expected to be as powerful during the day
  • Nearly 2,000 homes, businesses and other structures have been destroyed in those blazes

LOS ANGELES: Firefighters battled early Thursday to control a series of major fires in the Los Angeles area that have killed five people, ravaged communities from the Pacific Coast to Pasadena and sent thousands of people frantically fleeing their homes.
Ferocious winds that drove the flames and led to chaotic evacuations have calmed somewhat and were not expected to be as powerful during the day. That could provide an opportunity for firefighters to make progress reining in blazes that have hopscotched across the sprawling region, including massive ones in Pacific Palisades and Altadena.
The latest flames broke out Wednesday evening in the Hollywood Hills, striking closer to the heart of the city and the roots of its entertainment industry and putting densely populated neighborhoods on edge during exceptionally windy and dry conditions. But only about a mile away, the streets around the Hollywood Walk of Fame, the TCL Chinese Theatre and Madame Tussauds were bustling, and onlookers used their phones to record video of the blazing hills.
Within a few hours, firefighters had made major progress on the Sunset Fire in the hills. Los Angeles Fire Department Capt. Erik Scott said they were able to keep the fire in check because “we hit it hard and fast and mother nature was a little nicer to us today than she was yesterday.”
A day earlier, hurricane-force winds blew embers through the air, igniting block after block in the coastal neighborhood of Pacific Palisades as well as in Altadena, a community near Pasadena that is about 25 miles (40 kilometers) east. Aircraft had to be grounded for a time because of the winds, hampering firefighting efforts.
Nearly 2,000 homes, businesses and other structures have been destroyed in those blazes — called the Palisades and Eaton fires — and the number is expected to increase. The five deaths recorded so far were from the Eaton Fire.
Some 130,000 people have been put under evacuation orders, as fires have consumed a total of about 42 square miles (108 square kilometers) — nearly the size of the entire city of San Francisco. The Palisades Fire is already the most destructive in Los Angeles history.
As flames moved through his neighborhood, Jose Velasquez sprayed down his family’s Altadena home with water as embers rained down on the roof. He managed to save their home, which also houses their family business selling churros, a Mexican pastry. Others weren’t so lucky. Many of his neighbors were at work when they lost their homes.
“So we had to call a few people and then we had people messaging, asking if their house was still standing,” he said. “We had to tell them that it’s not.”
In Pasadena, Fire Chief Chad Augustin said the city’s water system was stretched and was further hampered by power outages, but even without those issues, firefighters would not have been able to stop the fire due to the intense winds fanning the flames.
“Those erratic wind gusts were throwing embers for multiple miles ahead of the fire,” he said.
The dramatic level of destruction was apparent in a comparison of satellite images before and after the fire.
A swath of about 250 homes in an Altadena neighborhood that had been dotted with the green canopies of leafy trees and aquamarine swimming pools was reduced to rubble. Only a few homes were left standing and some were still in flames in images from Maxar Technologies. Along a stretch of about 70 wall-to-wall homes overhanging the Pacific Ocean in Malibu, fewer than 10 appeared to be intact.
In Pacific Palisades, a hillside area along the coast dotted with celebrity homes, block after block of California Mission Style homes and bungalows were reduced to charred remains. Ornate iron railing wrapped around the smoldering frame of one house Swimming pools were blackened with soot, and sports cars slumped on melted tires.
More than half a dozen schools in the area were either damaged or destroyed, and UCLA has canceled classes for the week.
Another fire has hit Sylmar, a middle and working-class area on the northern edge of the San Fernando Valley that has been the site of many devastating blazes.
Fast-moving flames allowed little time to escape
The main fires grew rapidly in distinctly different areas that had two things in common: densely packed streets of homes in places that are choked with vegetation and primed to burn in dry conditions.
Flames moved so quickly that many barely had time to escape. Police sought shelter inside their patrol cars, and residents at a senior living center were pushed in wheelchairs and hospital beds down a street to safety.
In the race to get away in Pacific Palisades, roadways became impassable when scores of people abandoned their vehicles and set out on foot.
Actors lost homes
The flames marched toward highly populated and affluent neighborhoods, including Calabasas and Santa Monica, home to California’s rich and famous.
Mandy Moore, Cary Elwes and Paris Hilton were among the stars who lost homes. Billy Crystal and his wife Janice lost their home of 45 years in the Palisades Fire.
“We raised our children and grandchildren here. Every inch of our house was filled with love. Beautiful memories that can’t be taken away,” the Crystals wrote in the statement.
In Palisades Village, the public library, two major grocery stores, a pair of banks and several boutiques were destroyed.
“It’s just really weird coming back to somewhere that doesn’t really exist anymore,” said Dylan Vincent, who returned to the neighborhood to retrieve some items and saw that his elementary school had burned down and that whole blocks had been flattened.
Higher temperatures and less rain mean a longer fire season
California’s wildfire season is beginning earlier and ending later due to rising temperatures and decreased rainfall tied to climate change, according to recent data. Rains that usually end fire season are often delayed, meaning fires can burn through the winter months, according to the Western Fire Chiefs Association.
Dry winds, including the notorious Santa Anas, have contributed to warmer-than-average temperatures in Southern California, which has not seen more than 0.1 inches (2.5 millimeters) of rain since early May.
The winds increased to 80 mph (129 kph) Wednesday, according to reports received by the National Weather Service. Fire conditions could last through Friday — but wind speeds were expected to be lower on Thursday.
Landmarks get scorched and studios suspend production
President Joe Biden signed a federal emergency declaration after arriving at a Santa Monica fire station for a briefing with Gov. Gavin Newsom, who dispatched National Guard troops to help.
Several Hollywood studios suspended production, and Universal Studios closed its theme park between Pasadena and Pacific Palisades.
As of early Thursday, around 250,000 people were without power in southern California, according to the tracking website PowerOutage.us.
Several Southern California landmarks were heavily damaged, including the Reel Inn in Malibu, a seafood restaurant. Owner Teddy Leonard and her husband hope to rebuild.
“When you look at the grand scheme of things, as long as your family is well and everyone’s alive, you’re still winning, right?” she said.


Millions of Filipino Catholics join Black Nazarene procession in Manila

Updated 09 January 2025
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Millions of Filipino Catholics join Black Nazarene procession in Manila

  • Original black wooden statue of Jesus Christ was brought from Mexico in 1606
  • About 80% of the Philippines’ 110 million population are Catholics

MANILA: Millions of Filipino Catholics joined an annual procession of a centuries-old statue of Jesus Christ in Manila on Thursday in one of the world’s largest displays of devotion.

Clad in maroon and yellow, devotees flooded the streets of the Philippine capital to swarm the Black Nazarene, the black wooden statue of Jesus Christ bearing down a cross, as people jostled for a chance to pull the thick rope towing the carriage across the city.

In Asia’s largest Christian-majority country, about 80 percent of the Philippines’ 110 million population identify as Catholic, a key legacy of Spanish colonization of the archipelago for more than 300 years.

The 6.5 km-long procession, known as Traslacion, or “transfer,” commemorates the 1787 relocation of the Black Nazarene from a church inside the colonial Spanish capital of Intramuros in Manila’s center to its present location in Quiapo Church.

“Quiapo’s site of devotion, located outside the Spanish colonial center of Intramuros, showcases ordinary Filipinos’ appropriation of this faith. Moreover, the tradition of making and keeping panata (pledges) to the Black Nazarene has been passed down through many generations of Filipinos,” Wilson Espiritu, assistant professor of theology at the Ateneo de Manila University, told Arab News.

The original statue, created by an unknown Mexican sculptor, was brought to the Philippines from Mexico in 1606, first staying in the Church of San Juan Bautista in Bagumbayan before it was moved to Intramuros in 1608.

Many devotees believe the statue is miraculous, and that touching it or the ropes attached to its float can heal illness or turn around misfortune.

Part of its miraculous lore derived from the statue surviving multiple earthquakes, fires, floods and even the bombing of Manila in the Second World War.

The annual procession celebrating the statue, also known as the Feast of the Black Nazarene, has parallels in other Catholic-dominant countries, such as the Festival of Cristo Negro of Portobelo in Panama.

“To me, this shows the ‘Catholicity’ of this popular Filipino devotion. Nevertheless, what distinguishes this devotion is its historical background and cultural integration in Filipino society,” Espiritu said.

Manila police have estimated that at least 6 million people will join the procession. This year marks the first time that the feast will be observed nationwide, with churches across the country also expected to hold various celebrations.

Preparations have been underway since Monday evening and as enthusiasm buzzed among thousands of devotees in the lead-up to the procession, church officials had to allow the ritual of pahalik — the kissing of the statue — hours ahead of schedule.

For many Filipinos, religious traditions like this provide an opportunity “to rekindle the sense of collective hope, in aspiring for a better life,” said Robbin Dagle, a lecturer at Ateneo de Manila University who has researched religion and society in the Philippines.

“Little acts, such as sharing food and water among devotees, highlight how religious events reinforce community ties. Here, Filipinos place their faith on each other and to Jesus, who knew and went through suffering himself, rather than on earthly leaders who are distant from them, and have failed them time and time again,” he told Arab News.

“Filipinos continue to find meaning in religious traditions because of what it represents: Community and unceasing hope. Both of these are increasingly challenging to find in urban life.”


In their final meeting, Zelensky and Austin say military aid to Ukraine must continue under Trump

Updated 09 January 2025
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In their final meeting, Zelensky and Austin say military aid to Ukraine must continue under Trump

  • Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin: US to send another $500 million in security assistance to Ukraine
  • The US has provided about $66 billion of the total aid to Kyiv since February 2022

RAMSTEIN AIR BASE, Germany: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin used their final meeting Thursday to press the incoming Trump administration to not give up on Kyiv’s fight, warning that to cease military support now “will only invite more aggression, chaos and war.”
“We’ve come such a long way that it would honestly be crazy to drop the ball now and not keep building on the defense coalitions we’ve created,” Zelensky said. “No matter what’s going on in the world, everyone wants to feel sure that their country will not just be erased of the map.”
Austin also announced the US would send another $500 million in security assistance to Ukraine, including missiles for fighter jets, sustainment equipment for F-16s, armored bridging systems and small arms and ammunition.
The weapons are funded through presidential drawdown authority, meaning they can be pulled directly from US stockpiles, and the Pentagon is pushing to get them into Ukraine before the end of the month.
This latest package leaves about $3.85 billion in funding to provide future arms shipments to Ukraine; if the Biden administration makes no further announcements, that balance will be available to President-elect Donald Trump to send if he chooses.
“If Putin swallows Ukraine, his appetite will only grow,” Austin told the approximately 50 member nations who have been meeting over the last three years to coordinate weapons and military support for Ukraine. “If autocrats conclude that democracies will lose their nerve, surrender their interests, and forget their principles, we will only see more land grabs. If tyrants learn that aggression pays, we will only invite even more aggression, chaos, and war.”
Austin leaves a consortium that now has more than a half dozen independent coalitions of those countries who are focused on Ukraine’s longer-term security capabilities and who have committed to continuing to stand up those needs through 2027.
Globally, countries including the US have ramped up domestic weapons production as the Ukraine war exposed that all of those stockpiles were woefully unprepared for a major conventional land war.
The US has provided about $66 billion of the total aid since February 2022 and has been able to deliver most of that total — between 80 percent and 90 percent — already to Ukraine.
“Retreat will only provide incentives for more imperial aggression,” Austin told the group. “And if we flinch, you can count on Putin to push further and punch harder. Ukraine’s survival is on the line. But so is the security of Europe, the United States, and the world.”