Oil Updates – prices climb on summer demand optimism

Brent crude futures rose 54 cents, or 0.64 percent, to $85.55 a barrel by 2:05 p.m. Saudi time. Shutterstock
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Updated 01 July 2024
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Oil Updates – prices climb on summer demand optimism

SINGAPORE: Oil prices climbed on Monday, supported by forecasts of a supply deficit stemming from peak summer fuel consumption and OPEC+ cuts in the third quarter, although global economic headwinds and rising non-OPEC+ output capped gains, according to Reuters.

Brent crude futures rose 54 cents, or 0.64 percent, to $85.55 a barrel by 2:05 p.m. Saudi time. US West Texas Intermediate crude futures were up 49 cents, or 0.6 percent, at $82.03.

Both contracts gained around 6 percent in June, with Brent settling above $85 a barrel in the past two weeks, after the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and their allies, a group known as OPEC+, extended most of its deep oil output cuts well into 2025.

That led analysts to forecast supply deficits in the third quarter as transportation and air-conditioning demand during summer draw down fuel stockpiles.

On Friday, the Energy Information Administration’s reported that oil production and demand for major products rose to a four-month high in April, supporting prices.

“We continue to hold a supportive view toward Brent, although there are concerns around demand, such as US gasoline demand and Chinese apparent demand,” ING analysts led by Warren Patterson said in a note.

Factory activity among smaller Chinese manufacturers grew at the fastest pace since 2021 due to overseas orders, a private index showed, even as a broader survey indicated weak domestic demand and trade frictions had led to another industrial sector contraction. China is the world’s second-highest consumer and top crude importer.

Hopes of an interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve and rising geopolitical concerns in Europe and between Israel and Lebanon’s Hezbollah have also kept a floor under prices, IG analyst Tony Sycamore said in a note.

WTI’s recent rally may extend toward $85 a barrel if prices remain above the 200-day moving average at $79.52, he said.

Traders are watching out for the impact from hurricanes on oil and gas production and consumption in the Americas.

The Atlantic hurricane season started with Hurricane Beryl on Sunday. Beryl, the earliest Category 4 hurricane on record, headed toward the Caribbean’s Windward Islands where it is expected to bring life-threatening winds and flash flooding on Monday, the US National Hurricane Center said. 


Saudi-Turkiye ties in urban development to flourish as officials meet in Istanbul  

Updated 12 sec ago
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Saudi-Turkiye ties in urban development to flourish as officials meet in Istanbul  

RIYADH: Bilateral cooperation between Saudi Arabia and Turkiye is poised to expand in the fields of real estate, infrastructure, and waste management as ministers convene in Istanbul.   

During the three-day official tour running until July 4, Saudi Arabia’s Minister of Municipal, Rural Affairs, and Housing, Majid bin Abdullah Al-Hogail, is scheduled to meet with various officials and companies in Turkiye to explore opportunities for enhancing cooperation and investment in these sectors. 

This comes against the backdrop of active ministerial engagements aimed at boosting cooperation, with Saudi Arabia and Turkiye seeing their bilateral trade surpass SR26 billion ($6.93 billion) in 2023. 

The Saudi real estate market is rapidly advancing with ambitious urban development projects and substantial infrastructure investments, attracting global interest while emphasizing sustainability and innovation. 

On arrival in Istanbul, the minister met with the Turkiye Presidency’s Investment Office Chief, Burak Daglıoglu, to discuss fostering bilateral cooperation.  

Al-Hogail emphasized the deep and strong relations between Saudi Arabia and Turkiye, commending their robust commercial ties and joint investments.   

He underscored the Kingdom’s openness to all companies and expertise in diverse development sectors.   

Highlighting the experience and capabilities of Turkish investment companies in real estate, waste management, and recycling, Al-Hogail noted their suitability for the Saudi market and welcomed their interest in investing in these sectors.  

Furthermore, cooperation between the two countries goes beyond economy as the Saudi Minister of Defense, Prince Khalid bin Salman, met with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan at the Presidential Palace in Ankara on July 2.  

During the meeting, Prince Khalid and the president reviewed relations between the Kingdom and Turkiye and ways to enhance them. They also discussed regional and international developments and efforts made with regard to them.  

Later on the day, Prince Khalid was received by his Turkish counterpart Yasar Guler at the Ministry of National Defense in Ankara.  

During the meeting, aspects of Saudi-Turkish relations were discussed. Ways to continue strengthening and developing existing and future cooperation paths between the ministries of defense in the two countries were also reviewed.  

Defense cooperation between the two nations was also evident in high-level talks on military capabilities, technology transfer, and scientific research development in January.  

The bilateral committee involving the two countries convened its fourth meeting in Istanbul on Jan. 15, according to the Kingdom’s Ministry of Defense.   

The meeting was attended by Saudi Assistant Minister of Defense Talal bin Abdullah Al-Otaibi, Turkish Deputy Minister of Defense Celal Sami Tufekci, and President of Turkiye’s Defense Industry Agency Haluk Gorgun.    

Saudi Arabia’s Ambassador to Turkiye Fahd bin Asaad Abu Al-Nasr also joined the attendees, along with specialists from the Saudi Ministry of Defense, the General Authority for Military Industries, the General Authority for Defense Development, and Saudi Military Industries — an affiliate of the Public Investment Fund.    

Meanwhile, Al-Otaibi visited Turkiye’s leading drone manufacturer Baykar. He discussed the existing cooperation between his ministry and the Turkish company.    


Abu Dhabi to expand office space as occupancy rates surpass 95% due to hedge funds 

Updated 57 min 30 sec ago
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Abu Dhabi to expand office space as occupancy rates surpass 95% due to hedge funds 

RIYADH: Hedge funds flocking to Abu Dhabi have pushed office occupancy rates over 95 percent, prompting a call for an increase in business-centric real estate.

Up from 91.3 percent in the first quarter, tenancy levels at the four towers in Abu Dhabi Global Market, situated on Al-Maryah Island, are now nearly full, according to Bloomberg.

The government plans to expand the free zone’s jurisdiction to neighboring Al-Reem Island in a move that will give it 10 times as much space and make it one of the largest financial districts on a global level, stretching 14.4 million sq. m. 

This move aligns well with the fact that Abu Dhabi’s sovereign wealth funds pose a big draw for hedge fund managers, along with the emirate’s tax-free income and the weather. The time zone also allows workers to trade across Asian, European, and US hours, helping the city attract firms from London, Hong Kong, and Singapore. 

It also fits with ADGM’s aim of attracting diverse businesses, including financial institutions, asset management, and fintech, as well as corporations and professional services firms. 

Furthermore, it sets apart Abu Dhabi from other prominent global cities such as New York, London, and San Francisco, where high office vacancy rates persist due to a significant shift toward remote work following the pandemic.

“With growing demand for companies to locate within ADGM, occupancy rates in Al-Maryah Island have exceeded 95 percent,” a representative for ADGM said in an emailed statement. 

“Consequently, expansion is the next natural and necessary step to better accommodate the increasing demand of companies seeking to establish a presence in the financial hub of Abu Dhabi,” the representative added.


Saudi Arabia’s non-oil private sector PMI at 55, leading the Gulf region – S&P Global

Updated 03 July 2024
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Saudi Arabia’s non-oil private sector PMI at 55, leading the Gulf region – S&P Global

RIYADH: Saudi Arabia’s non-oil private sector showcased robust growth in June, driven by increased demand, higher output levels, and a rise in employment, according to a report.

The latest S&P Global Purchasing Managers’ Index showed that the Riyad Bank Saudi Arabia PMI stabilized at 55 from 56.4 in May, marking the lowest reading since January 2022. 

Despite the slowdown in new orders, which saw the slowest growth in nearly two and a half years, non-oil businesses reported a substantial rise in output, helping the Kingdom led the region with the strongest expansion figures.

Companies boosted their production levels to support ongoing sales and projects, reflecting a positive business environment.

Naif Al-Ghaith, chief economist at Riyad Bank, said: “The PMI for the non-oil economy recorded at 55.0 in June, marking the slowest pace of expansion since January 2022. The new orders component fell compared to the previous month, suggesting a slight moderation in demand growth.”

He added: “However, the growth in non-oil sectors was supported by a strong increase in output levels. Employment numbers also rose, while suppliers’ delivery times continued to improve.”

The second quarter growth figures indicate a positive outlook for Saudi Arabia’s non-oil gross domestic product, with expected gains exceeding 3 percent.

High output levels, stable supply chains, and moderate job creation point toward a resilient and expanding non-oil economy, contributing to the country’s economic diversification efforts.

UAE 

The UAE’s non-oil private sector continued to grow in June, though the rate of expansion slowed. The S&P Global UAE PMI fell to 54.6 from 55.3 in May, the lowest point in 16 months. 

The decline was primarily due to sustained competitive pressures, weaker job creation, and an easing in output growth. 

The sector faced challenges with rising input prices, leading to the quickest increase in average prices charged since April 2018. 

Despite these issues, businesses saw a marked increase in new work, with the strongest rise in new orders since March. Export volumes also saw a significant boost, reaching the highest levels since October 2023.

David Owen, senior economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, noted: “The UAE PMI highlights a slowing growth trend in the non-oil sector throughout 2024 so far. Nevertheless, companies are still enjoying strong customer demand and robust sales pipelines, which are sustaining output expectations and driving purchasing activity.”

Owen added: “On the negative side, input price pressures are at their strongest for nearly two years, causing firms to raise their output prices for the second month in a row.”

The ongoing strength in demand and sales indicated a resilient market despite the external pressures and challenges faced.

Kuwait

Kuwait’s non-oil private sector displayed solid growth in June, with the S&P Global Kuwait PMI at 51.6, slightly down from 52.4 in May. 

The index remained above the neutral 50 mark for the 17th consecutive month, signaling continued improvement in business conditions. 

Employment in the sector rose at the fastest pace on record, driven by sustained new orders and increased output. Despite sharp rises in input costs, the rate of inflation eased for the third month, allowing firms to limit price increases for customers.

Businesses in Kuwait faced input cost inflation, but the rate of increase in input prices eased from the peaks seen earlier in the year. 

Andrew Harker, economics director at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said: “Sustained inflows of new orders encouraged companies to expand their staffing levels at the sharpest pace on record in June.”

Companies were able to manage these costs better, resulting in moderate price increases for their goods and services. 

“There were more signs of input cost inflation softening, enabling companies to continue their policy of limiting price rises to customers in order to help secure new work. One of the big drivers of rising expenses was spending on advertising, which has often been central to growth in the non-oil private sector in recent months,” Harker added.

The Purchasing Managers’ Index, produced globally by S&P Global and some local trade associations, is a survey-based economic indicator designed to provide timely insights into business conditions. 

It includes individual measures such as business output, new orders, employment costs, and selling prices, as well as exports, purchasing activity, supplier performance, backlogs of orders, and inventories of both inputs and finished goods. 

By asking respondents to report changes compared to the previous month and their sentiment on future output, the PMI anticipates changing economic trends and can serve as an alternative gauge to official data, which can be delayed or suffer from quality issues. 

Initially focused on manufacturing, its coverage now extends to services, construction, and retail sectors.


Saudi POS spending regains momentum with 48% rise

Updated 03 July 2024
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Saudi POS spending regains momentum with 48% rise

RIYADH: Saudi Arabia’s point-of-sale spending increased by 48 percent to reach SR12.34 billion ($3.29 billion) from June 23 to 29, with the education sector registering the largest surge.

The latest data from the Saudi Central Bank, also known as SAMA, revealed that the transaction value in the sector, which accounts for only 0.05 percent of the total number of transactions, saw a 1,970 percent increase, reaching SR99.06 million during the week.

From May 16 to June 22, POS spending in the Kingdom dipped to its lowest in months, reaching SR8.34 billion, coinciding with the Eid al-Adha vacation period. 

Saudi-based economist Talat Hafiz explained in an interview with Arab News that “spending is usually less during such vacations,” as citizens perform Hajj compared to regular days when they visit shopping malls and restaurants for entertainment.

Data from SAMA for the last week of June showed that spending on transportation surged by 155.4 percent to reach SR790 million, the second-highest increase compared to the previous week. 

Spending on construction and building materials came in third place, recording a 110.7 percent rise, reaching SR328.5 million.

Outlays on food and beverages constituted the highest share of the POS and witnessed a 38.3 percent surge, reaching SR1.88 billion. This came alongside spending in restaurants and cafés, reaching SR1.8 billion and constituting the second-largest share with the smallest increase of 12.1 percent compared to the previous week.

POS spending on miscellaneous goods and services, including personal care items, supplies, maintenance, and cleaning, constituted the third-highest share and witnessed a 62 percent rise that week, reaching SR1.6 billion. 

The hotel sector experienced the second-smallest increase in POS transaction value, increasing by 15.1 percent to SR220.3 million. On the other hand, gas stations witnessed the third-smallest surge, with a 20 percent increase, reaching SR834.5 million.

According to data from SAMA, 32.15 percent of POS spending occurred in Riyadh, with the total transaction value reaching SR3.96 billion, representing a 61.2 percent increase from the previous week. 

Riyadh has undergone considerable expansion, evolving into a pivotal center for growth and progress. 

The city’s La Strada Yard recently witnessed the debut of the Dubai-based supermarket chain Spinneys in Saudi Arabia.

The 43,520 square foot flagship outlet in Riyadh’s emerging mixed-use development marks the beginning of Spinneys’ expansion strategy in the capital city and Jeddah, aiming to cater to the increasing preference for high-quality grocery choices across the Kingdom. 

Spending in Jeddah followed, accounting for 13.8 percent of the total and reaching SR1.71 billion, marking a 45.3 percent weekly positive change. 

Moreover, spending in Dammam surged by 58.1 percent, taking the second-largest increase to reach SR580.4 million, the third-largest share of this week’s POS. 

The most significant positive change was spotted in Tabuk, with a 71.6 percent surge, reaching SR230.8 million. 

The only negative change was registered in Makkah, where spending decreased by 1.1 percent to reach SR444 million.


Oil Updates – crude rises on US crude inventory draw, Mideast tensions

Updated 03 July 2024
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Oil Updates – crude rises on US crude inventory draw, Mideast tensions

SINGAPORE: Oil prices rose on Wednesday after industry data showed a bigger-than-expected draw in US crude stockpiles, while the market kept tabs on flaring tensions in the Middle East, according to Reuters.

Brent crude futures edged up 46 cents, or 0.5 percent, to $86.70 per barrel at 9:45 a.m. Saudi time. US West Texas Intermediate crude futures climbed 42 cents or 0.5 percent to $83.23 per barrel.

On Tuesday, both benchmarks rose to their highest since the end of April in intraday trading but closed down on the day as fears faded that Hurricane Beryl would disrupt production in the Gulf of Mexico. It is expected to weaken into a tropical storm by the time it enters the Gulf of Mexico later this week, according to the US National Hurricane Center.

“Having gained previously due to fears of supplies disruption from Hurricane Beryl, there may be some unwinding as greater clarity points toward limited potential impact,” said Yeap Jun Rong, a market strategist at IG.

“That said, a significant drawdown in US crude inventories offered some support for prices, while tensions in the Middle East continue,” Yeap added.

US crude oil inventories fell by 9.163 million barrels in the week ended June 28, according to market sources citing American Petroleum Institute figures on Tuesday. However, gasoline inventories rose by 2.468 million barrels, and distillates fell by 740,000 barrels.

Analysts in a Reuters poll had expected a 700,000-barrel draw in crude inventories, a 1.3-million-barrel drop in gasoline stocks, and a 1.2-million-barrel fall in distillates stocks.

“Oil prices were supported by a US crude inventories draw, but gains were limited as some investors were still seeking to take profits from the recent rally to reach the highest levels since April,” said Mitsuru Muraishi, an analyst at Fujitomi Securities.

The Energy Information Administration, the statistical arm of the US Department of Energy, is due to release its weekly data on Wednesday at 5:30 p.m. Saudi time.

Meanwhile, US gasoline demand is expected to ramp up as the summer travel season picks up with the Independence Day holiday this week. The American Automobile Association has forecast that travel during the holiday period will be 5.2 percent higher than in 2023, with car travel up 4.8 percent.

In the Middle East, Israeli forces bombarded several areas of the southern Gaza Strip on Tuesday, with thousands of Palestinians fleeing their homes. The Israeli military and the Lebanese armed group Hezbollah have also been trading fire across Lebanon’s southern border.

“The risk of an Israel-Hezbollah war, combined with the risk of a broadening conflict in the Middle East, likely means upside risks to our near-term outlook,” said Vivek Dhar, an analyst at Commonwealth Bank of Australia.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries’ oil output rose in June for a second consecutive month, a Reuters survey found on Tuesday, as higher supply from Nigeria and Iran offset the impact of voluntary supply cuts by other members and the wider OPEC+ alliance.