Houthi shipping attacks pose complex diplomatic challenge to next UK government

Yemenis wave Palestinian flags and hold mock rockets during a march in the Houthi-run capital Sanaa in solidarity with the people of Gaza. (AFP)
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Updated 02 July 2024
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Houthi shipping attacks pose complex diplomatic challenge to next UK government

  • Experts divided on whether change in British policy alone can stop Houthi attacks on shipping
  • Red Sea trade routes disruption has increased shipping costs, delayed supplies to UK

LONDON: Whichever political party forms the next UK government after this week’s general election will face major domestic and international challenges, including the crises in Gaza and the Red Sea. 

Experts who spoke to Arab News emphasized the need for diplomatic solutions and support for Palestinian statehood to address these challenges, as disruption to Red Sea trade routes has increased shipping costs and delayed supplies, impacting UK businesses.

Escalating tensions in the region have already prompted British military action. How the next prime minister chooses to respond will shape international relations and have significant implications for domestic economic stability and public opinion.

While polling suggests a potential Labour majority, ending more than a decade of Conservative rule under five successive prime ministers, including incumbent Rishi Sunak, the political landscape remains complex.

The Labour Party has gained ground in many areas and reclaimed councils it has not held in decades, but has also faced setbacks in key constituencies with large student and Muslim communities.




Britain’s PM and Conservative Party Leader Rishi Sunak delivers a speech during a visit during a general election campaign event in northern England, on July 1, 2024 in the build-up to the UK general election on July 4. (AFP)

These traditionally loyal demographics have voiced a distinct reason for this shift — namely Labour leader Keir Starmer’s response to the Gaza issue.

Desire for a ceasefire is high in Britain. A recent YouGov poll in May found that 69 percent think that Israel should stop and call a ceasefire — about the same as the 66 percent who said so in February. And yet the main political parties have been muted on the issue.

Britain’s Arab citizens have been urged by the Arab Voice campaign to support candidates who best serve Arab and Muslim communities, focusing on those who stand with Gaza.

“The situations in Gaza and Yemen have significantly influenced my decision on whom to vote for in the upcoming election,” Randa Al-Harazi, a British-Yemeni political activist, told Arab News.

“The current government’s departure from British values and principles that uphold human rights has been a pivotal factor. Britain’s strong commitment to human rights was a major reason why I chose to migrate to and settle in this country.”




A woman stands holding a child surrounded by the rubble of buildings destroyed during Israeli bombardment in Khan Yunis on the southern Gaza Strip on June 23, 2024.

Escalating international pressure for a Gaza ceasefire has led to huge protests across the UK, notably mobilized by the Palestine Solidarity Campaign.

While the general election campaigns of the main parties have primarily focused on domestic issues, the incoming prime minister will have to address the escalating tensions in the Middle East, exacerbated by the Gaza conflict between Israel and Hamas.

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Non-state actors within the Iran-led “Axis of Resistance” have launched attacks against British ally Israel, ostensibly in solidarity with Hamas and the broader Palestinian cause, posing a threat to global trade security.

The next prime minister will need to decide whether to continue or reconsider the UK’s involvement amid broader regional instability.




The Houthis have attacked multiple vessels off Yemen’s coast in protest against Western support for Israel in its war in Gaza. (AFP)

As part of the Axis of Resistance, the Houthi militia in Yemen — also known as the Ansar Allah — has responded to the Gaza war by targeting Israeli interests. It has launched rocket and drone attacks in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden, initially focusing on cargo ships suspected of having links to Israel.

Simon Mabon, professor of international politics and director of the SEPAD peace and conflict research center at Lancaster University, says advocating for a ceasefire in Gaza and enduring peace in the Occupied Palestinian Territories is of critical importance.

“The Houthis have capitalized on the devastation in Gaza and articulated a clear stance in support of the Palestinian cause,” he told Arab News. “A ceasefire would go some way in undermining this approach, though Houthi attacks have been far wider than just Israeli targets.” 

In response to Houthi attacks on shipping, the US and UK have launched multiple counterstrikes, targeting the militia’s coastal radar installations, unmanned aerial vehicles, surface vessels, weapons storage facilities, missile launch sites and other military assets to degrade their capability to continue attacks.

Despite these efforts, the Houthi militia has vowed to continue attacks and to retaliate against the US and UK. Its latest statements emphasize ending the Gaza war as a primary objective of its attacks while also speaking of avenging its fighters killed in US and UK attacks.




A grab from handout footage released by the Houthis on November 19, 2023, reportedly shows members of the group during the capture of an Israel-linked cargo vessel at an undefined location in the Red Sea. (AFP)

Baraa Shiban, an associate fellow with the London-based Royal United Services Institute, says that despite the UK government’s decision to join the US in protecting shipping lanes, the Yemenis had long foreseen and warned about this eventuality.

“The Red Sea problem, although it is a maritime issue, is primarily a land problem,” Shiban told Arab News. “It stems from the international community’s inability to recognize the importance of a properly functioning state in Yemen.”

Shiban says that the crisis in Yemen has often been treated purely as a humanitarian issue, with a focus on feeding the population. But, according to him, this approach overlooks the underlying problem — the Houthi insurgency that hinders the state’s functionality.

“To ensure maritime security, it is crucial to address the land-based security issues,” he said. “This requires a fresh strategy for engaging with Yemeni parties to help them rebuild stable and effective institutions.”




Protesters hold placards and wave Palestinian flags as they gather in Parliament Square, central London, on June 8, 2024. (AFP)

Instability in Yemen worsened in 2014 when Houthi insurgents took control of Yemen’s capital, Sanaa, forcing the internationally backed government to go into exile in Saudi Arabia in 2015. 

“Greater attention must be paid to the Houthis as a critical issue to be addressed,” said Shiban. “The Houthis pose a significant threat, and this problem is likely to persist for a long time.”

Many Yemenis are sympathetic to the Palestinian cause and highly critical of Israel’s assault on Gaza, which has boosted public support for the Houthi militia. Large demonstrations in cities, both within and outside Houthi-controlled areas, such as Taiz, reflect this widespread sentiment. 

“The support for the Houthis has grown dramatically as a result of their actions, despite the group’s deeply hostile actions in Yemen,” said Mabon. “Taking a firm stance in support of Palestinian statehood is essential.”




Many Yemenis are sympathetic to the Palestinian cause and highly critical of Israel’s assault on Gaza, which has boosted public support for the Houthi militia. (AFP)

The Houthi militia has been able to use this to bolster military recruitment in the regions it controls, aiding its struggle against Yemen’s internationally recognized government and associated armed factions.

Abdulaziz Al-Qadmi, a Yemeni political analyst based in Houthi-controlled Sanaa, believes that the group’s support for the Palestinian cause will continue until Western nations, including the UK, cease their backing of the Israeli government.

“The British government and its Western allies must recognize the high costs of waging war against the Palestinian resistance,” said Al-Qadmi.

“If the UK and US persist in their unlawful assaults on Yemen, they should expect retaliation. Previously, Ansar Allah targeted only ships bound for Israel, but now UK and US vessels will also be vulnerable to attacks.” 

He added: “This fact is a critical consideration for any new UK government. The cycle of violence will only end when the US and UK halt their military operations in Yemen, as their current strategy is proving unsuccessful.”

INNUMBERS

  • 10 Number of additional days it takes for ships to traverse southern Africa to avoid the Red Sea route.
  • 55 percent British Chambers of Commerce exporter members feeling the direct impact of the Red Sea crisis.
  • 300 percent Reported increase in the price of container hire, while delivery times have extended by 4 weeks.
  • 70 percent Proportion of Europe’s car parts shipped through the Red Sea from Asia, which now face disruption.

The strategic importance of the Red Sea in global supply chains has been severely disrupted by Houthi missile and drone attacks, with 107 recorded incidents since the hijacking of the Galaxy Leader on Nov. 19. 

“The Red Sea is central in global supply chains and global trade routes, and disturbances in these supply chains and trade routes can have global reverberations,” Lancaster University’s Mabon said.

Due to these attacks, many shipping companies have opted to avoid the Red Sea, diverting vessels onto the safer but much longer and more costly route around the tip of southern Africa, passing the Cape of Good Hope.

This detour can add 10 days to a journey and increase fuel costs by 40 percent. A British Chambers of Commerce survey in February found that 55 percent of its exporter members have felt the direct impact of the Red Sea crisis. Some reported price rises of 300 percent for container hire and delivery times extended by four weeks.

Manufactured goods from Asia, especially cars, have been the hardest hit. About 70 percent of Europe’s car parts are shipped through the Red Sea from Asia. Due to the disruption, carmakers such as Volvo and Tesla have had to suspend some production lines because of a lack of parts.

Some companies are realigning their supply chains to cope with these challenges. Retailers such as Asos and Boohoo have increased nearshoring, sourcing more products from countries such as Turkiye and Morocco, as well as within the UK.




This handout grab of a video by the French ‘Etat-Major des Armees’ shows a Houthi UAV threatening commercial navigation prior to its destruction by a French army helicopter in the Red Sea on March 20, 2024. (AFP)

This shift helps them to avoid the longer lead times and inflated prices associated with rerouting shipments from Asia.

Extended shipping routes are driving up container freight expenses, approaching levels seen during the pandemic, according to a recent Geopolitical Monitor report.

These escalating costs are expected to trickle down to consumers, given that rising shipping expenses will persistently push prices upward in the short term, the report said. 

Short of a diplomatic solution, the geopolitical risks presented by the Houthi militia are set to increase. “A military solution is not the way forward in addressing the Red Sea crisis,” said Mabon.

“The UK’s influence alone is limited, but as penholder at the UN Security Council, it does have some influence. While the UK has called for an ‘inclusive peace under UN auspices,’ the need for a diplomatic solution that reflects realities on the ground is imperative.”

 


Russian forces capture British man fighting with Ukraine, RIA reports

Updated 6 sec ago
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Russian forces capture British man fighting with Ukraine, RIA reports

  • In a video posted on unofficial pro-war Russian Telegram channels on Sunday, a young bearded man says in English that his name is James Scott Rhys Anderson and that he formerly served in the British Army

Russian forces captured a British mercenary fighting with the Ukrainian army in Russia’s Kursk region, which is still partially controlled by Kyiv forces, a security source told Russia’s RIA state news agency.
“A mercenary from Great Britain, who called himself James Scott Rhys Anderson, was captured. He is now giving evidence,” the Russian source told RIA in remarks published on Sunday.
In a video posted on unofficial pro-war Russian Telegram channels on Sunday, a young bearded man wearing military clothing with what appears to be his hands tied in the back, says in English that his name is James Scott Rhys Anderson and that he formerly served in the British Army.
Reuters could not independently verify the video and the RIA and other media reports.
It was not clear when the video was filmed. The British Foreign Office did not immediately respond to a Reuters’ request for comment on the reports outside office hours.
The BBC reported earlier that the Foreign Office said it was “supporting the family of a British man following reports of his detention.”
Ukraine forces, which staged a surprise incursion in the Russian border region of Kursk in August, still control parts of it. However, Kyiv said over the weekend that it has since lost over 40 percent of the territory that it had captured, as Russian forces have mounted waves of counter-assaults.
 


In South Korea, nations meet in final round to address global plastic crisis

Updated 21 min 36 sec ago
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In South Korea, nations meet in final round to address global plastic crisis

Negotiators gathered in Busan, South Korea, on Monday in a final push to create a treaty to address the global crisis of plastic pollution.
It’s the fifth time the world’s nations convene to craft a legally binding plastic pollution accord. In addition to the national delegations, representatives from the plastics industry, scientists and environmentalists have come to shape how the world tackles the surging problem.
The planet is ” choking on plastic, ” according to the United Nations. It’s polluting lakes, rivers, oceans and people’s bodies.
“Don’t kick the can, or the plastic bottle, down the road,” UN Environment Programme Executive Director Inger Andersen said in a message aimed at negotiators.
This “is an issue about the intergenerational justice of those generations that will come after us and be living with all this garbage. We can solve this and we must get it done in Busan,” she said in an interview.
The previous four global meetings have revealed sharp differences in goals and interests. This week’s talks go through Saturday.
Led by Norway and Rwanda, 66 countries plus the European Union say they want to address the total amount of plastic on Earth by controlling design, production, consumption and where plastic ends up. The delegation from the hard-hit island nation of Micronesia helped lead an effort to call more attention to “unsustainable” plastic production, called the Bridge to Busan. Island nations are grappling with vast amounts of other countries’ plastic waste washing up on their shores.
“We think it’s the heart of the treaty, to go upstream and to get to the problem at its source,” said Dennis Clare, legal adviser and plastics negotiator for Micronesia. “There’s a tagline, ‘You can’t recycle your way out of this problem.’”
Some plastic-producing and oil and gas countries, including Saudi Arabia, disagree. They vigorously oppose any limits on plastic manufacturing. Most plastic is made from fossil fuels. Saudi Arabia is the world’s largest exporter of primary polypropylene, a common type of plastic, accounting for an estimated 17 percent of exports last year, according to the Plastics Industry Association.
China, the United States and Germany led the global plastics trade by exports and imports in 2023, the association said.
The plastics industry has been advocating for a treaty focused on redesigning plastic products, recycling and reuse, sometimes referred to as “circularity.” Chris Jahn, International Council of Chemical Associations secretariat, said negotiators should focus on ending plastic waste in the environment, not plastic production, to get a deal. Many countries won’t join a treaty if it includes production caps, he said.
To continue to progress and grow as a global economy, there are going to be more plastics, Jahn added.
“So we should strive then to keep those plastics in the economy and out of the environment,” Jahn said.
The United States delegation at first said countries should develop their own plans to act, a position viewed as favoring industry. It changed its position this summer, saying the US is open to considering global targets for reductions in plastic production.
Environmental groups accused the US of backtracking as negotiations approached.
Center for Coalfield Justice executive director Sarah Martik said the United States is standing on the sidelines rather than leading, putting “their thumb on the scale throughout the entirety of the negotiations.” She hopes this does not derail other countries’ ambition.
The US Environmental Protection Agency released a national strategy to prevent plastic pollution Thursday, but Martik said she thinks too many of the measures are voluntary to make a difference.
Democratic US Sen. Jeff Merkley, of Oregon, said it’s a mistake for the United States to settle for the lowest common denominator proposals, just to get some kind of agreement.
Luis Vayas Valdivieso, the committee chair from Ecuador, recently proposed text for sections where he thinks the delegations could agree.
The production and use of plastics globally is set to reach 736 million tons by 2040, up 70 percent from 2020, without policy changes, according to the intergovernmental Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development.
Research published in Science this month found it is still possible to nearly end plastic pollution. The policies that make the most difference are: mandating new products be made with 40 percent post-consumer recycled plastic; limiting new plastic production to 2020 levels; investing significantly in plastic waste management, such as landfills and waste collection services and implementing a small fee on plastic packaging.
The treaty is the only way to solve plastic pollution at this scale, said Douglas McCauley, professor at UC Santa Barbara and UC Berkeley. McCauley co-led the research.
Margaret Spring, chief conservation and science officer for Monterey Bay Aquarium, said plastic pollution used to be considered largely a waste problem. Now it is widely viewed as an existential crisis that must be addressed, said Spring, who represents the International Science Council at the negotiations.
“I’ve never seen people’s understanding of this issue move as fast, given how complex the topic is,” she said. “It gives me hope that we can actually start moving the dial.”
 


Republicans push back against Democrats' claims that Trump intelligence pick Gabbard is compromised

Updated 25 November 2024
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Republicans push back against Democrats' claims that Trump intelligence pick Gabbard is compromised

  • Democrats have cast doubts on Gabbard for her comments supportive of Russia and secret meetings, as a congresswoman, with Syria’s president, a close ally of the Kremlin and Iran
  • Gabbard, a former US ational Guard officer and a former Democrat, also has suggested that Russia had legitimate security concerns in deciding to invade Ukraine, given its desire to join NATO

FORT LAUDERDALE, Florida: Republican senators pushed back on Sunday against criticism from Democrats that Tulsi Gabbard, Donald Trump’s pick to lead US intelligence services, is “compromised” by her comments supportive of Russia and secret meetings, as a congresswoman, with Syria’s president, a close ally of the Kremlin and Iran.
Sen. Tammy Duckworth, an Illinois Democrat and veteran of combat missions in Iraq, said she had concerns about Tulsi Gabbard, Trump’s choice to be director of national intelligence.
“I think she’s compromised,” Duckworth said on CNN’s “State of the Union,” citing Gabbard’s 2017 trip to Syria, where she held talks with Syrian President Bashar Assad. Gabbard was a Democratic House member from Hawaii at the time.
“The US intelligence community has identified her as having troubling relationships with America’s foes. And so my worry is that she couldn’t pass a background check,” Duckworth said.
Gabbard, who said last month she is joining the Republican Party, has served in the Army National Guard for more than two decades. She was deployed to Iraq and Kuwait and, according to the Hawaii National Guard, received a Combat Medical Badge in 2005 for “participation in combat operations under enemy hostile fire in support of Operation Iraqi Freedom III.”
Duckworth’s comments drew immediate backlash from Republicans.
“For her to say ridiculous and outright dangerous words like that is wrong,” Sen. Markwayne Mullin, a Republican from Oklahoma, said on CNN, challenging Duckworth to retract her words. “That’s the most dangerous thing she could say — is that a United States lieutenant colonel in the United States Army is compromised and is an asset of Russia.”
In recent days, other Democrats have accused Gabbard without evidence of being a “Russian asset.” Sen. Elizabeth Warren, a Massachusetts Democrat, has claimed, without offering details, that Gabbard is in Russian President Vladimir “Putin’s pocket.”
Mullin and others say the criticism from Democrats is rooted in the fact that Gabbard left their party and has become a Trump ally. Democrats say they worry that Gabbard’s selection as national intelligence chief endangers ties with allies and gives Russia a win.
Rep. Adam Schiff, a California Democrat just elected to the Senate, said he would not describe Gabbard as a Russian asset, but said she had “very questionable judgment.”
“The problem is if our foreign allies don’t trust the head of our intelligence agencies, they’ll stop sharing information with us,” Schiff said on NBC’s “Meet the Press.”
Gabbard in 2022 endorsed one of Russia’s justifications for invading Ukraine: the existence of dozens of US-funded biolabs working on some of the world’s nastiest pathogens. The labs are part of an international effort to control outbreaks and stop bioweapons, but Moscow claimed Ukraine was using them to create deadly bioweapons. Gabbard said she just voiced concerns about protecting the labs.
Gabbard also has suggested that Russia had legitimate security concerns in deciding to invade Ukraine, given its desire to join NATO.
Republican Sen. Eric Schmitt of Missouri said he thought it was “totally ridiculous” that Gabbard was being cast as a Russian asset for having different political views.
“It’s insulting. It’s a slur, quite frankly. There’s no evidence that she’s a asset of another country,” he said on NBC.
Sen. James Lankford, another Oklahoma Republican, acknowledged having “lots of questions” for Gabbard as the Senate considers her nomination to lead the intelligence services. Lankford said on NBC that he wants to ask Gabbard about her meeting with Assad and some of her past comments about Russia.
“We want to know what the purpose was and what the direction for that was. As a member of Congress, we want to get a chance to talk about past comments that she’s made and get them into full context,” Lankford said.


Uruguay’s conservative candidate concedes hard-fought presidential runoff to left-wing challenger

Updated 16 min 20 sec ago
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Uruguay’s conservative candidate concedes hard-fought presidential runoff to left-wing challenger

  • With more than 91 percent of the votes counted, Orsi had 49.56 percent support compared to Delgado’s 46.17 percent
  • Delgado’s concession ushers in Orsi as Uruguay’s new leader and spells an end to a short stint by the center-right party in Uruguay

MONTEVIDEO, Uruguay: The presidential candidate of the conservative coalition that has governed Uruguay for the past five years conceded defeat on Sunday after a tight runoff election, as the South American nation joined others around the world in rebuking the incumbent party in a year of landmark elections.
Even as the vote count continued, Álvaro Delgado, the center-right government’s candidate, told supporters at his campaign headquarters in the capital of Montevideo that “with sadness, but without guilt, we can congratulate the winner,” referring to left-wing challenger Yamandú Orsi.
Fireworks erupted over the stage where Orsi, 57, a working-class former history teacher and two-time mayor from Uruguay’s center-left coalition known as the Broad Front, claimed victory as crowds flocked to greet him.
“The country of liberty, equality and fraternity has triumphed once again,” he said, vowing to unite the nation of 3.4 million people after such a tight vote.
“Let’s understand that there is another part of our country who have different feelings today,” he said. “These people will also have to help build a better country. We need them too.”
With more than 91 percent of the votes counted, Orsi had 49.56 percent support compared to Delgado’s 46.17 percent in an election in which nearly 90 percent of voters turned out, according to preliminary data released by the Electoral Court. The rest were blank votes or non-voters.
While failing to entice apathetic young voters and generating extraordinary indecision, Uruguay’s lackluster electoral campaigns steered clear of the anti-establishment fury that has vaulted populist outsiders to power elsewhere in the world, like in the United States and neighboring Argentina.
Delgado’s concession ushers in Orsi as Uruguay’s new leader and spells an end to a short stint by the center-right party in Uruguay. The 2019 election of President Luis Lacalle Pou interrupted 15 consecutive years of rule by the Broad Front.
“I called Yamandú Orsi to congratulate him as President-elect of our country,” Lacalle Pou wrote on social media platform X, adding that he would “put myself at his service and begin the transition as soon as I deem it appropriate.”
Orsi’s victory was the latest sign that simmering discontent over post-pandemic economic malaise favors anti-incumbent candidates. In the many elections that took place during 2024, voters frustrated with the status quo have punished ruling parties from the US and Britain to South Korea and Japan.
But unlike elsewhere in the world, Orsi is a moderate who plans no radical changes and agrees with his opponent on key issues like combating childhood poverty and cracking down on organized crime.
Despite his promise to lead a “new left” in Uruguay, his platform resembles the mix of market-friendly policies and welfare programs that characterized the Broad Front’s tenure from 2005-2020. The coalition of leftist and center-left parties presided over a period of economic growth and pioneering social reforms that won widespread international acclaim.
Behind Uruguay’s legalization of abortion, same-sex marriage and sale of marijuana was former President José “Pepe” Mujica, an ex-Marxist guerilla who became a global icon and mentor to Orsi.
Mujica, now 89 and recovering from esophageal cancer, turned up at his local polling station before balloting even began, praising Orsi’s humility and Uruguay’s famous stability.
“This is no small feat,” he said of Uruguay’s “citizenry that respects formal institutions.”
Orsi proposes tax incentives to lure investment and social security reforms that would lower the retirement age but fall short of a radical overhaul sought by Uruguay’s unions that failed to pass in October, with Uruguayans rejecting generous pensions in favor of fiscal constraint.
“He’s my candidate, not only for my sake but also for my children’s,” Yeny Varone, a nurse at a polling station, said of Orsi. “In the future they’ll have better working conditions, health and salaries.”
Delgado, 55, a rural veterinarian with a long career in the National Party, served most recently as Secretary of the Presidency for Lacalle Pou and campaigned under the slogan “re-elect a good government.”
With inflation easing and the economy expected to expand by some 3.2 percent this year, according to the International Monetary Fund, Delgado has promised to continue pursuing his predecessor’s pro-business policies. Lacalle Pou, who constitutionally cannot run for a second consecutive term, has enjoyed high approval ratings.
But the official results trickling in Sunday showed that mounting complaints in Uruguay about years of sluggish economic growth, stagnant wages and the government’s struggle to stem an upsurge in violent crime helped to swing the election against Delgado’s party.
In the weeks after the Oct. 27 general election — in which neither front-runner secured an outright majority — most polls had showed a virtual tie between Delgado and Orsi.
Turnout on Sunday stood at 89.4 percent in the nation where voting is compulsory, with over 2.7 million citizens registered.
In his victory speech, Orsi struck a conciliatory tone.
“I will be the president who calls for national dialogue again and again, who builds a more integrated society and country,” he said, adding that he would get to work “starting tomorrow.”
 


Far-right populist surprises in Romanian presidential election appearing set to enter runoff

Updated 42 min 1 sec ago
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Far-right populist surprises in Romanian presidential election appearing set to enter runoff

  • Thirteen candidates ran for the presidency in the European Union and NATO member country.
  • Hard-right Georgescu has questioned NATO commitment to collective defense

BUCHAREST, Romania: A little-known, far-right populist took the lead in Romania’s presidential election Sunday, electoral data showed, and will likely face leftist Prime Minister Marcel Ciolacu in a runoff in two weeks, an outcome that rocked the country’s political landscape.
Calin Georgescu, who ran independently, led the polls with around 22 percent of the vote, while Ciolacu of the Social Democratic Party, or PSD, trailed at 20 percent. Elena Lasconi of the Save Romania Union party, or USR, stood at about 18 percent, and George Simion, the leader of the far-right Alliance for the Unity of Romanians, or AUR, took 14.1 percent.
After polls closed, 9.4 million people — about 52.4 percent of eligible voters — had cast ballots, according to the Central Election Bureau. The second round of the vote will be held Dec. 8.
Thirteen candidates ran for the presidency in the European Union and NATO member country. The president serves a five-year term and has significant decision-making powers in areas such as national security, foreign policy and judicial appointments.
Georgescu, 62, ran independently and was not widely known. He outperformed most local surveys, sending shockwaves through Romania’s political establishment as he ascended to poll position.
After casting his ballot on Sunday, Georgescu said in a post on Facebook that he voted “For the unjust, for the humiliated, for those who feel they do not matter and actually matter the most … the vote is a prayer for the nation.”
Cristian Andrei, a political consultant based in Bucharest, told The Associated Press that Georgescu’s unexpected poll performance appears to be a “large protest or revolt against the establishment.”
“The mainstream political parties have lost the connection with regular Romanians,” he said. “You don’t have strong candidates or strong leaders … there are weak candidates, weak leaders, and the parties in general are pretty much disconnected.”
Georgescu lacks an agenda, Andrei added, and has a vague and populist manifesto with positions that are “beyond the normal discourse.” His stances include supporting Romanian farmers, reducing dependency on imports, and ramping up energy and food production.
According to his website, Georgescu holds a doctorate in pedology, a branch of soil science, and held different positions in Romania’s environment ministry in the 1990s. Between 1999 and 2012, he was a representative for Romania on the national committee of the United Nations Environment Program.
Videos posted to his popular TikTok account, where he has amassed 1.6 million likes, depict him attending church, doing judo, running around an oval track, and speaking on podcasts.
Ahead of Sunday’s vote, many had expected to see Simion, a vocal supporter of US President-elect Donald Trump, face Ciolacu in the second round. He campaigned for reunification with Moldova, which this year renewed a five-year ban on him entering the country over security concerns, and he is banned for the same reason from neighboring Ukraine.
Ecaterina Nawadia, a 20-year-old architecture student, said she voted for the first time in a national election on Sunday and hoped young people turn out in high numbers.
“Since the (1989) revolution, we didn’t have a really good president,” she said. “I hope most of the people my age went to vote … because the leading candidate is not the best option.”
Romania will also hold parliamentary elections on Dec. 1 that will determine the country’s next government and prime minister.
As the ballots were still being counted, Simion said he congratulated Georgescu and that he was “Very happy that approximately 40 percent of the votes of Romanians went toward the sovereign option” and would be in the second round.
Andrei, the political consultant, said Romania’s large budget deficit, high inflation, and an economic slowdown could push more mainstream candidates to shift toward populist stances amid widespread dissatisfaction.
Ciolacu told the AP before the first-round vote that one of his biggest goals was “to convince Romanians that it is worth staying at home or returning” to Romania, which has a massive diaspora spread throughout EU countries.
Other candidates included former NATO deputy general secretary Mircea Geoana, who ran independently and obtained about 6 percent; and Nicolae Ciuca, a former army general and head of the center-right National Liberal Party, which is currently in a tense coalition with the PSD — who stood at 9.3 percent.
Geoana, a former foreign minister and ambassador to the United States, told the AP before Sunday’s vote that he believed his international experience would qualify him above the other candidates.
Lasconi, a former journalist and the leader of the USR, said she sees corruption as one of the biggest problems Romania faces and that she supports increased defense spending and continued aid to Ukraine.