What the UK general election might mean for the Middle East 

Britain’s Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, soaked in rain, stands at a lecturn as he delivers a speech to announce July 4 as the date of the UK’s general election. (File/AFP)
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Updated 03 July 2024
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What the UK general election might mean for the Middle East 

  • Perceived inaction on Gaza has hung over the election contest between Rishi Sunak and Sir Keir Starmer
  • If the polls prove correct and Labour sweeps to power, analysts predict a far closer UK-Gulf relationship

LONDON: It was clear from the moment that British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak stood outside 10 Downing Street on May 22 and announced that he was calling a snap general election that the next six weeks would not go well for his ruling Conservative party.

For many, the raincloud that burst over Sunak’s head as he spoke seemed to sum up the past 14 years, which, riven by factional infighting, saw no fewer than four leaders in the eight years since Theresa May succeeded David Cameron in 2016.

Adding to the comedy of the moment was the soundtrack to the announcement, courtesy of a protester at the gates of Downing Street, whose sound system was blasting out the ’90s pop hit “Things Can Only Get Better” — the theme tune of Labour’s 1997 election victory.




Britain’s Prime Minister Rishi Sunak delivers a speech at a Conservative Party campaign event at the National Army Museum in London. (File/AP)

Headline writers were spoiled for choice. Contenders included “Drown and out,” “Drowning Street” and — probably the winner — “Things can only get wetter.” That last one was also prescient. 

In theory, under the rules governing general elections, Sunak need not have gone to the country until December. The reality, however, was that both Sunak and his party were already trailing badly in the polls and the consensus at Conservative HQ was that things could only get worse.

As if to prove the point, in one early Conservative campaign video, the British Union Flag was flown upside down. A series of mishaps and scandals followed, with some Conservative MPs found to have been betting against themselves and the party.




Former British PM Boris Johnson gestures as he endorses British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak at a campaign event in London, Britain, July 2, 2024. (Reuters)

Judging by the steady slide in support for the government, the electorate has neither forgotten nor forgiven the chaos of the Boris Johnson years, typified by the illegal drinks parties held in Downing Street while the rest of the nation was locked down during COVID-19 restrictions.

Nor has the electorate forgotten the failure to deliver on the great promises of Brexit, the shock to the UK economy delivered by the 44-day premiership of Liz Truss, and the inability of the government to control the UK’s borders — which was, after all, the chief reason for leaving the EU.

On the day the election was announced, a seven-day average of polls showed Labour had twice as much support as the Conservatives — 45 percent to 23 percent.

Compounding the government’s woes was the rise of Reform UK, the populist right-wing party making gains thanks largely to the failure of Sunak’s pledge to reduce immigration and “stop the boats” carrying illegal migrants across the English Channel.

On 11 percent, Reform had overtaken the Lib Dems, Britain’s traditional third-placed party, and the vast majority of the votes it seemed certain to hoover up would be those of disenchanted Conservative voters.

By the eve of today’s election, a poll of 18 polls carried out in the seven days to July 2 showed Labour’s lead had eased only very slightly, to 40 percent against the Conservatives’ 21 percent, with Reform up to 16 percent.




Labour Party leader Keir Starmer and Britain’s Prime Minister and Conservative Party leader Rishi Sunak attend a live TV debate, hosted by the BBC. (File/AFP)

On Wednesday, a final YouGov poll on the eve of voting predicted that Labour would win 431 seats, while the Conservatives would return to the new parliament on July 9 with only 102 MPs — less than a third of the 365 seats they won in 2019.

If this proves to be the case, Starmer would have a majority of 212, not only bigger than Tony Blair’s in 1997, but also the strongest performance in an election by any party since 1832.

After the polls close tonight at 10pm, there is a very good chance that Sunak may even lose his own seat, the constituency of Richmond and Northallerton, which the Conservatives have held for 114 years.

Either way, the Conservative party will be thrust into further turmoil as the battle begins to select the party’s next leader who, as many commentators are predicting, can look forward to at least a decade in opposition.




Reform UK leader Nigel Farage scratches his head as he delivers a speech during the “Rally for Reform” at the National Exhibition Centre in Birmingham. (File/AFP)

The return of Labour, a completely regenerated party after 14 years in the wilderness, is likely to be good news for Britain’s relationships in the Middle East, as Arab News columnist Muddassar Ahmed predicted this week.

Distracted by one domestic or internal crisis after another, the Conservatives have not only neglected their friends and allies in the region but, in an attempt to stem the loss of its supporters to Reform UK, have also pandered to racial and religious prejudices.

“The horrific scenes unfolding in Gaza, for example, have rocked Muslims worldwide while pitting different faith communities against one another,” Ahmed wrote.




A Palestinian boy who suffers from malnutrition receives care at the Kamal Adwan hospital in Beit Lahia in the northern Gaza Strip on July 2, 2024. (AFP)

“But instead of working to rebuild the relationships between British Muslims, Jews and Christians, the Conservative government has branded efforts to support Palestinians as little more than insurgent ‘hate marches’ — using the horrific conflict to wedge communities that ought to be allied.”

On the other hand, Labour appears determined to reinvigorate the country’s relationship with a region once central to the UK’s interests.

January this year saw the launch of the Labour Middle East Council (LMEC), founded with “the fundamental goal of cultivating understanding and fostering enduring relationships between UK parliamentarians and the Middle East and North Africa.”

Chaired by Sir William Patey, a former head of the Middle East Department at the Foreign and Commonwealth Office and an ambassador to Afghanistan, Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Sudan, and with an advisory board featuring two other former British ambassadors to the region, the LMEC will be a strong voice whispering in the ear of a Labour government that will be very open to what it has to say.




Britain’s Labour Party leader Keir Starmer speaks on stage at the launch of the party’s manifesto in Manchester, England, Thursday, June 13, 2024. (AP)

Writing in The House magazine, Sir William predicted “a paradigm shift in British foreign policy is imminent.”

He added: “As a nation with deep-rooted historical connections to the Middle East, the UK has a unique role to play in fostering a stable and prosperous region.”

The role of the LMEC would be “to harness these connections for a positive future. We will work collaboratively to address pressing global issues, from climate change to technological advancement, ensuring that our approach is always one of respect, partnership, and shared progress.”

David Lammy, Labour’s shadow foreign secretary, has already made several visits to the region since Oct. 7. In April he expressed “serious concerns about a breach in international humanitarian law” over Israel’s military offensive in Gaza.




Britain’s main opposition Labour Party Shadow Foreign Secretary David Lammy addresses delegates at the annual Labour Party conference in Liverpool. (File/AFP)

It was, he added, “important to reaffirm that a life lost is a life lost whether that is a Muslim or a Jew.” In May, Lammy called for the UK to pause arms sales to Israel.

In opposition, Labour has hesitated to call for a ceasefire in Gaza, but this has been a product of its own internal and domestic tensions. Starmer has brought the party back on track after years of accusations by UK Jewish activist groups that under his predecessor Jeremy Corbyn it was fundamentally antisemitic.

Whether the charges were true, or whether the party’s staunch support of the Palestinian cause was misrepresented as antisemitism, was a moot point. Starmer knew that, in the run-up to a general election, this was hard-won ground that he could not afford to lose.

Nevertheless, even as he has alienated some Muslim communities in the UK for his failure to call for a ceasefire, he has spoken out repeatedly against the horrors that have unfolded in Gaza.




A protester looks on in Parliament Square, central London, on June 8, 2024 at the end of the “National March for Gaza”. (File/AFP) 

Crucially, he has consistently backed the two-state solution, and the creation of “a viable Palestinian state where the Palestinian people and their children enjoy the freedoms and opportunities that we all take for granted.”

In broader terms, Lammy has also made clear that Labour intends to re-engage with the Middle East through a new policy of what he called “progressive realism.”

Less than a week before Sunak called his surprise general election, Lammy spoke of the need for the UK to mend relations with the Gulf states, which he saw as “hugely important for security in the Middle East” and “important in relation to our economic growth missions.”

Because of missteps by the Conservative government, he added, relations between the UAE and the UK, for example, were at “an all-time low. That is not acceptable and not in the UK’s national interests (and) we will seek to repair that.”

In an article he wrote for Foreign Affairs magazine, Lammy went further.

China, he said, was not the world’s only rising power, and “a broadening group of states — including Brazil, India, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE — have claimed seats at the table. They and others have the power to shape their regional environments, and they ignore the EU, the UK, and the US ever more frequently.”

Lammy expressed regret for “the chaotic Western military interventions during the first decades of this century,” in Afghanistan, Iraq and Libya, which had proved to be a “recipe for disorder.”

As shadow foreign secretary, he has traveled extensively across the MENA region, to countries including Bahrain, Egypt, Israel, Jordan, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Turkiye, the UAE, and the Occupied Palestinian Territories.

All, he wrote, “will be vital partners for the UK in this decade, not least as the country seeks to reconstruct Gaza and — as soon as possible — realize a two-state solution.”

For many regional observers, Labour is starting with a clean sheet, but has much to prove.

“It is an acknowledged fact among scholars that foreign policies don’t radically change after elections,” Arshin Adib-Moghaddam, professor in global thought and comparative philosophies at the School of Oriental and African Studies in London, told Arab News.

“Therefore, I don’t expect major shifts once Labour forms the government in the UK.

“That said, the composition of the Labour party and its ‘backbench’ politics are likely to shift the language and probably even the code of conduct, in particular with reference to the question of Palestine. For a Labour leader it may be that much more difficult to be agnostic about the horrific human rights situation in Gaza.”




Displaced Palestinians flee after the Israeli army issued a new evacuation order for parts of Khan Yunis and Rafah on July 2, 2024. (AFP)

For political analysts advising international clients, however, the implications of a Labour victory extend beyond the situation in Gaza.

“In an attempt to secure political longevity, the party will renegotiate key policy priorities in the Middle East,” said Kasturi Mishra, a political consultant at Hardcastle, a global advisory firm that has been closely following the foreign policy implications of the UK election for its clients in business and international politics.

“This could include calling for a ceasefire in Gaza, ending arms sales to Israel, reviving trade and diplomacy with the Gulf states and increasing the UK’s defense spending in the region,” Mishra told Arab News.

“This renegotiation is important at a time when the UK finds itself increasingly uncertain of its global position.




Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan meets with Shadow Foreign Secretary of the British Labor Party David Lammy on the sidelines of the Manama Dialogue 2023 held in Bahrain. (SPA)

“The Middle East has significant geopolitical and security implications for the West. Labour policy-makers recognize this and are likely to deepen British engagement with the region to reshape its soft power and influence.”

Mishra highlighted Lammy’s multiple trips to the region as a foretaste of a Labour’s intention to strengthen ties with the Gulf states, “which have been neglected in post-Brexit Britain. 

“Given the influential role of Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Qatar in regional security and the potential to collaborate with them on climate mitigation and other international issues, it is clear that he will seek to forge partnerships.

“His doctrine of progressive realism combines a values-based world order with pragmatism. It is expected that he will favor personalized diplomacy, more akin to that of the UAE, India and France.”

 


Rubio to meet Russia's Lavrov as strikes pound Kyiv

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Rubio to meet Russia's Lavrov as strikes pound Kyiv

KUALA LUMPUR: US Secretary of State Marco Rubio will meet with his Russian counterpart in Malaysia on Thursday, after Moscow unleashed its second major attack on Ukraine in as many days.
Rubio’s first visit to Asia as secretary of state also comes as US President Donald Trump ramps up his trade war, threatening more than 20 countries with punitive tariffs.
The top US diplomat is to meet Sergei Lavrov on the sidelines of a meeting of foreign ministers from the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) in Kuala Lumpur, a senior State Department official said.
Russian strikes on Kyiv killed at least two people, the city’s military administration said Thursday, after earlier warning of incoming missiles and reporting around a dozen wounded.
AFP journalists in Kyiv heard loud blasts echoing over the city throughout the night and saw flashes from air defense system lighting up the sky.
Dozens of residents of the capital took shelter in a central metro station, an AFP reporter said, sleeping on mats, calming pets and waiting out the attack on camping furniture.
That came a day after Russia’s biggest missile and drone attack on Ukraine in more than three years of war — and after Trump launched an expletive-filled attack on Russian leader Vladimir Putin.
Trump accused Putin of talking “bullshit” about Ukraine, saying that the United States would send Kyiv more weapons to defend itself.
Rubio and Lavrov last met in February in Saudi Arabia, following a rapprochement between Trump and Putin. The two diplomats have also spoken multiple times by phone.
After Malaysia, Lavrov will visit North Korea this weekend, the latest in a series of high-profile visits by top Moscow officials as the two countries deepen military ties.
Pyongyang has emerged as one of the Kremlin’s main allies during its Ukraine invasion, sending thousands of troops to Russia’s Kursk region to oust Kyiv’s forces and providing the Russian army with artillery shells and missiles.


US officials said ahead of Rubio’s trip that Washington was “prioritising” its commitment to East Asia and Southeast Asia.
Speaking in Malaysia, Rubio said the United States has “no intention of abandoning” the region.
But his visit comes after Trump threatened more than 20 countries, many in Asia, with tariffs ranging from 20 to 50 percent, and announced a 50 percent toll on copper imports and a possible 200 percent duty on pharmaceuticals.
Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim warned Asia’s top diplomats on Wednesday of a new era when tariffs are among the “sharpened instruments of geopolitical rivalry.”
Trump said Monday that duties he had suspended in April would snap back — even more steeply — on August 1.
Among those targeted were top trade partners Japan and South Korea, which each face 25 percent tariffs.
Indonesia, Laos, Thailand, Malaysia, the Philippines, Brunei and Myanmar — all members of ASEAN — face duties ranging from 20 percent to 40 percent if they do not strike deals with Washington by Trump’s new deadline.
The levels were not too far from those originally threatened in April, although some rates were notably lower this time.
Vietnam, which is also an ASEAN member, is one of only two countries — Britain being the other — to have reached a tentative agreement with Trump.
In Malaysia, Rubio will attend a post-ministerial conference and a meeting by East Asian foreign ministers — which will also see Japan, South Korea and China participating.
He will also meet with Anwar and hold trilateral talks with the Philippines and Japan.
Rubio’s Chinese counterpart Wang Yi is also at ASEAN, but details of any meeting between the pair have not been announced.
The superpowers remain locked in a range of disputes on issues from trade and fentanyl, to Taiwan and cutting-edge technology.
Without mentioning the United States, Wang on Thursday called for a “fairer and more reasonable” international order.

Pakistan police arrest 149, including 48 Chinese, in scam center raid

Updated 33 min 54 sec ago
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Pakistan police arrest 149, including 48 Chinese, in scam center raid

  • The agency said they were acting on a tip-off about the network

ISLAMABAD: Pakistan police arrested 149 people — including 71 foreigners, mostly Chinese — in a raid on a scam call center, the National Cyber Crime Investigation Agency said Thursday.
“During the raid, a large call center was uncovered, which was involved in Ponzi schemes and investment fraud,” the agency said in a statement.
“Through this fraudulent network, the public was being deceived and vast sums of money were being illegally collected.”
The agency said they were acting on a tip-off about the network, operating in the city of Faisalabad, a manufacturing center in the east of the country.
It said the raid was at the residence of Tasheen Awan, the son of the former chairman of the Water and Power Development Authority, a government agency.
All those arrested were in custody, including 78 Pakistanis and 48 Chinese, as well as citizens from Nigeria, the Philippines, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, Zimbabwe and Myanmar.
Some 18 of the 149 were women, it added.


China says ‘verifying’ case of citizens held for alleged spying in Ukraine

Updated 10 July 2025
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China says ‘verifying’ case of citizens held for alleged spying in Ukraine

  • Ukraine’s SBU security service said the son was a 24 year old former student of a technical university in Kyiv, and that the father, who lives in China, had traveled to Ukraine to coordinate his son’s “espionage activities”

BEIJING: Beijing said Thursday it was still “verifying” the case of a Chinese father and son detained by Ukraine for allegedly trying to smuggle navy missile technology out of the war-torn country.
“If Chinese citizens are involved, we will... safeguard Chinese citizens’ legitimate rights and interests in accordance with the law,” foreign ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning said.
Relations between Kyiv and Beijing, a key Russian ally, are strained.
Ukraine and the West accuse China of enabling the Russian invasion through trade and of supplying technology, including for deadly drone attacks.
Ukraine also says dozens of Chinese citizens have been recruited by Russia’s army and sent to fight.
Ukraine’s SBU security service said Wednesday the son was a 24-year-old former student of a technical university in Kyiv, and that the father, who lives in China, had traveled to Ukraine to coordinate his son’s “espionage activities.”
The two were “attempting to illegally export secret documentation on the Ukrainian RK-360MC Neptune missile system to China,” the agency said.
Moscow and Beijing struck a “no limits” partnership on the eve of Russia’s February 2022 invasion, and have since deepened political, military and economic cooperation.


Hundreds of migrants moved from Crete to Greek mainland as island struggles with Libya arrivals

Updated 10 July 2025
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Hundreds of migrants moved from Crete to Greek mainland as island struggles with Libya arrivals

  • EU officials earlier this week were turned away from eastern Libya following an apparent disagreement on the format of talks planned on curbing crossings

LAVRIO: More than 500 migrants arrived at the port of Lavrio near Athens Thursday after being intercepted south of the island of Crete, as Greece implements emergency measures to address a surge in Mediterranean crossings from Libya.
The migrants, consisting mostly of young men, were transferred overnight aboard a bulk carrier after their fishing trawler was intercepted by Greek authorities. Service vessels helped bring them ashore at the mainland port. They will be sent to detention facilities near the capital.
Their transfer to the mainland was ordered because makeshift reception centers on Crete have reached capacity, with roughly 500 news arrivals per day on the Mediterranean island since the weekend.
Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis announced Wednesday that Greece would suspend asylum processing for migrants arriving by sea from North Africa for three months. The measure targets arrivals on Crete and was taken during a diplomatic strain between the European Union and Libya over migration cooperation. EU officials earlier this week were turned away from eastern Libya following an apparent disagreement on the format of talks planned on curbing crossings.
Authorities on Crete are struggling to provide basic services, using temporary facilities to house migrants, primarily from Somalia, Sudan, Egypt and Morocco, according to island officials.


Ukraine to launch Starlink mobile Internet in 2026, becoming Europe’s first, Kyivstar says

Updated 10 July 2025
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Ukraine to launch Starlink mobile Internet in 2026, becoming Europe’s first, Kyivstar says

ROME: Ukraine will become the first European nation to offer Starlink mobile services when leading operator Kyivstar launches messaging by year-end and mobile satellite broadband in mid-2026, Chief Executive Oleksandr Komarov said.
Field tests have begun under an end-2024 deal with Space X’s commercial broadband constellation to allow tech entrepreneur Elon Musk’s company to launch direct-to-cell services in the war-torn country.
Direct-to-cell devices connect to satellites equipped with modems that function like a cellphone tower, beaming telephone signals from space directly to smartphones.
“The first phase is over-the-top (OTT) messaging ... so messaging via WhatsApp, Signal, and other systems ... it will be in place at the end of this year,” Komarov told Reuters in Rome.
“And probably at the beginning of 2026, let’s be on the safe side, Q2 2026, we will be able to propose mobile satellite broadband data ... and voice.”
SpaceX did not respond to an emailed request for comment.
US carrier T-Mobile will introduce a data service on its satellite-to-cell network, powered by Starlink, at the start of October, the company said in June.
Komarov was speaking ahead of a Ukraine recovery conference Italy is hosting three years after the Russian invasion, with President Volodymyr Zelensky also due to attend.
He said his main aim at the conference, the fourth since the war began in February 2022, was to support the Ukrainian government and establish new business ties, some with Italian firms willing to expand in the country.
Kyivstar, owned by telecoms group VEON, is also working toward a US listing on the NASDAQ stock exchange. Komarov said the project was “moving forward” and hoped to finalize it in the third quarter of this year.
“I think it will be an exemplary move,” he added. “The first in history, the direct placement of (a) Ukrainian entity on the American stock exchange ... during the war.”
Komarov said Ukrainian telecom infrastructure was holding up well under Russia’s escalating assaults in recent weeks.
Last year one of its attacks on power grids and transmission lines caused daily blackouts in major cities after it knocked out about half Ukraine’s available generation capacity.
“I think that we are much more resilient than we used to be in 2022. Right now we can run our fixed and mobile services up to 10 hours during the blackouts, even national blackouts.”