What the UK general election might mean for the Middle East 

Britain’s Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, soaked in rain, stands at a lecturn as he delivers a speech to announce July 4 as the date of the UK’s general election. (File/AFP)
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Updated 03 July 2024
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What the UK general election might mean for the Middle East 

  • Perceived inaction on Gaza has hung over the election contest between Rishi Sunak and Sir Keir Starmer
  • If the polls prove correct and Labour sweeps to power, analysts predict a far closer UK-Gulf relationship

LONDON: It was clear from the moment that British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak stood outside 10 Downing Street on May 22 and announced that he was calling a snap general election that the next six weeks would not go well for his ruling Conservative party.

For many, the raincloud that burst over Sunak’s head as he spoke seemed to sum up the past 14 years, which, riven by factional infighting, saw no fewer than four leaders in the eight years since Theresa May succeeded David Cameron in 2016.

Adding to the comedy of the moment was the soundtrack to the announcement, courtesy of a protester at the gates of Downing Street, whose sound system was blasting out the ’90s pop hit “Things Can Only Get Better” — the theme tune of Labour’s 1997 election victory.




Britain’s Prime Minister Rishi Sunak delivers a speech at a Conservative Party campaign event at the National Army Museum in London. (File/AP)

Headline writers were spoiled for choice. Contenders included “Drown and out,” “Drowning Street” and — probably the winner — “Things can only get wetter.” That last one was also prescient. 

In theory, under the rules governing general elections, Sunak need not have gone to the country until December. The reality, however, was that both Sunak and his party were already trailing badly in the polls and the consensus at Conservative HQ was that things could only get worse.

As if to prove the point, in one early Conservative campaign video, the British Union Flag was flown upside down. A series of mishaps and scandals followed, with some Conservative MPs found to have been betting against themselves and the party.




Former British PM Boris Johnson gestures as he endorses British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak at a campaign event in London, Britain, July 2, 2024. (Reuters)

Judging by the steady slide in support for the government, the electorate has neither forgotten nor forgiven the chaos of the Boris Johnson years, typified by the illegal drinks parties held in Downing Street while the rest of the nation was locked down during COVID-19 restrictions.

Nor has the electorate forgotten the failure to deliver on the great promises of Brexit, the shock to the UK economy delivered by the 44-day premiership of Liz Truss, and the inability of the government to control the UK’s borders — which was, after all, the chief reason for leaving the EU.

On the day the election was announced, a seven-day average of polls showed Labour had twice as much support as the Conservatives — 45 percent to 23 percent.

Compounding the government’s woes was the rise of Reform UK, the populist right-wing party making gains thanks largely to the failure of Sunak’s pledge to reduce immigration and “stop the boats” carrying illegal migrants across the English Channel.

On 11 percent, Reform had overtaken the Lib Dems, Britain’s traditional third-placed party, and the vast majority of the votes it seemed certain to hoover up would be those of disenchanted Conservative voters.

By the eve of today’s election, a poll of 18 polls carried out in the seven days to July 2 showed Labour’s lead had eased only very slightly, to 40 percent against the Conservatives’ 21 percent, with Reform up to 16 percent.




Labour Party leader Keir Starmer and Britain’s Prime Minister and Conservative Party leader Rishi Sunak attend a live TV debate, hosted by the BBC. (File/AFP)

On Wednesday, a final YouGov poll on the eve of voting predicted that Labour would win 431 seats, while the Conservatives would return to the new parliament on July 9 with only 102 MPs — less than a third of the 365 seats they won in 2019.

If this proves to be the case, Starmer would have a majority of 212, not only bigger than Tony Blair’s in 1997, but also the strongest performance in an election by any party since 1832.

After the polls close tonight at 10pm, there is a very good chance that Sunak may even lose his own seat, the constituency of Richmond and Northallerton, which the Conservatives have held for 114 years.

Either way, the Conservative party will be thrust into further turmoil as the battle begins to select the party’s next leader who, as many commentators are predicting, can look forward to at least a decade in opposition.




Reform UK leader Nigel Farage scratches his head as he delivers a speech during the “Rally for Reform” at the National Exhibition Centre in Birmingham. (File/AFP)

The return of Labour, a completely regenerated party after 14 years in the wilderness, is likely to be good news for Britain’s relationships in the Middle East, as Arab News columnist Muddassar Ahmed predicted this week.

Distracted by one domestic or internal crisis after another, the Conservatives have not only neglected their friends and allies in the region but, in an attempt to stem the loss of its supporters to Reform UK, have also pandered to racial and religious prejudices.

“The horrific scenes unfolding in Gaza, for example, have rocked Muslims worldwide while pitting different faith communities against one another,” Ahmed wrote.




A Palestinian boy who suffers from malnutrition receives care at the Kamal Adwan hospital in Beit Lahia in the northern Gaza Strip on July 2, 2024. (AFP)

“But instead of working to rebuild the relationships between British Muslims, Jews and Christians, the Conservative government has branded efforts to support Palestinians as little more than insurgent ‘hate marches’ — using the horrific conflict to wedge communities that ought to be allied.”

On the other hand, Labour appears determined to reinvigorate the country’s relationship with a region once central to the UK’s interests.

January this year saw the launch of the Labour Middle East Council (LMEC), founded with “the fundamental goal of cultivating understanding and fostering enduring relationships between UK parliamentarians and the Middle East and North Africa.”

Chaired by Sir William Patey, a former head of the Middle East Department at the Foreign and Commonwealth Office and an ambassador to Afghanistan, Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Sudan, and with an advisory board featuring two other former British ambassadors to the region, the LMEC will be a strong voice whispering in the ear of a Labour government that will be very open to what it has to say.




Britain’s Labour Party leader Keir Starmer speaks on stage at the launch of the party’s manifesto in Manchester, England, Thursday, June 13, 2024. (AP)

Writing in The House magazine, Sir William predicted “a paradigm shift in British foreign policy is imminent.”

He added: “As a nation with deep-rooted historical connections to the Middle East, the UK has a unique role to play in fostering a stable and prosperous region.”

The role of the LMEC would be “to harness these connections for a positive future. We will work collaboratively to address pressing global issues, from climate change to technological advancement, ensuring that our approach is always one of respect, partnership, and shared progress.”

David Lammy, Labour’s shadow foreign secretary, has already made several visits to the region since Oct. 7. In April he expressed “serious concerns about a breach in international humanitarian law” over Israel’s military offensive in Gaza.




Britain’s main opposition Labour Party Shadow Foreign Secretary David Lammy addresses delegates at the annual Labour Party conference in Liverpool. (File/AFP)

It was, he added, “important to reaffirm that a life lost is a life lost whether that is a Muslim or a Jew.” In May, Lammy called for the UK to pause arms sales to Israel.

In opposition, Labour has hesitated to call for a ceasefire in Gaza, but this has been a product of its own internal and domestic tensions. Starmer has brought the party back on track after years of accusations by UK Jewish activist groups that under his predecessor Jeremy Corbyn it was fundamentally antisemitic.

Whether the charges were true, or whether the party’s staunch support of the Palestinian cause was misrepresented as antisemitism, was a moot point. Starmer knew that, in the run-up to a general election, this was hard-won ground that he could not afford to lose.

Nevertheless, even as he has alienated some Muslim communities in the UK for his failure to call for a ceasefire, he has spoken out repeatedly against the horrors that have unfolded in Gaza.




A protester looks on in Parliament Square, central London, on June 8, 2024 at the end of the “National March for Gaza”. (File/AFP) 

Crucially, he has consistently backed the two-state solution, and the creation of “a viable Palestinian state where the Palestinian people and their children enjoy the freedoms and opportunities that we all take for granted.”

In broader terms, Lammy has also made clear that Labour intends to re-engage with the Middle East through a new policy of what he called “progressive realism.”

Less than a week before Sunak called his surprise general election, Lammy spoke of the need for the UK to mend relations with the Gulf states, which he saw as “hugely important for security in the Middle East” and “important in relation to our economic growth missions.”

Because of missteps by the Conservative government, he added, relations between the UAE and the UK, for example, were at “an all-time low. That is not acceptable and not in the UK’s national interests (and) we will seek to repair that.”

In an article he wrote for Foreign Affairs magazine, Lammy went further.

China, he said, was not the world’s only rising power, and “a broadening group of states — including Brazil, India, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE — have claimed seats at the table. They and others have the power to shape their regional environments, and they ignore the EU, the UK, and the US ever more frequently.”

Lammy expressed regret for “the chaotic Western military interventions during the first decades of this century,” in Afghanistan, Iraq and Libya, which had proved to be a “recipe for disorder.”

As shadow foreign secretary, he has traveled extensively across the MENA region, to countries including Bahrain, Egypt, Israel, Jordan, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Turkiye, the UAE, and the Occupied Palestinian Territories.

All, he wrote, “will be vital partners for the UK in this decade, not least as the country seeks to reconstruct Gaza and — as soon as possible — realize a two-state solution.”

For many regional observers, Labour is starting with a clean sheet, but has much to prove.

“It is an acknowledged fact among scholars that foreign policies don’t radically change after elections,” Arshin Adib-Moghaddam, professor in global thought and comparative philosophies at the School of Oriental and African Studies in London, told Arab News.

“Therefore, I don’t expect major shifts once Labour forms the government in the UK.

“That said, the composition of the Labour party and its ‘backbench’ politics are likely to shift the language and probably even the code of conduct, in particular with reference to the question of Palestine. For a Labour leader it may be that much more difficult to be agnostic about the horrific human rights situation in Gaza.”




Displaced Palestinians flee after the Israeli army issued a new evacuation order for parts of Khan Yunis and Rafah on July 2, 2024. (AFP)

For political analysts advising international clients, however, the implications of a Labour victory extend beyond the situation in Gaza.

“In an attempt to secure political longevity, the party will renegotiate key policy priorities in the Middle East,” said Kasturi Mishra, a political consultant at Hardcastle, a global advisory firm that has been closely following the foreign policy implications of the UK election for its clients in business and international politics.

“This could include calling for a ceasefire in Gaza, ending arms sales to Israel, reviving trade and diplomacy with the Gulf states and increasing the UK’s defense spending in the region,” Mishra told Arab News.

“This renegotiation is important at a time when the UK finds itself increasingly uncertain of its global position.




Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan meets with Shadow Foreign Secretary of the British Labor Party David Lammy on the sidelines of the Manama Dialogue 2023 held in Bahrain. (SPA)

“The Middle East has significant geopolitical and security implications for the West. Labour policy-makers recognize this and are likely to deepen British engagement with the region to reshape its soft power and influence.”

Mishra highlighted Lammy’s multiple trips to the region as a foretaste of a Labour’s intention to strengthen ties with the Gulf states, “which have been neglected in post-Brexit Britain. 

“Given the influential role of Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Qatar in regional security and the potential to collaborate with them on climate mitigation and other international issues, it is clear that he will seek to forge partnerships.

“His doctrine of progressive realism combines a values-based world order with pragmatism. It is expected that he will favor personalized diplomacy, more akin to that of the UAE, India and France.”

 


New Bangladeshi tourism initiative empowers marginalized Indigenous groups

A tourist interacts with members of the Santal community in Rajshahi district, Bangladesh, Nov. 3, 2024. (BRAC)
Updated 11 sec ago
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New Bangladeshi tourism initiative empowers marginalized Indigenous groups

  • BRAC’s Othiti program helps uplift rural communities and their traditional skills
  • Pilot program is underway in Rajshahi district near the Bangladesh–India border

DHAKA: A new initiative by Bangladesh’s largest development organization is fostering community-based tourism in remote rural areas to empower Indigenous groups and help preserve their cultures.

There are more than 50 Indigenous groups in Bangladesh, most of whom, or about 1 million people, live in the flatland districts of the country’s north and southeast, and in the Chittagong Hill Tracts, bordering India and Myanmar.

Launched in early November, the new tourism initiative spearheaded by BRAC is named Othiti, which means “guest” in Bengali.

The pilot program is underway in Rajshahi district on the northern bank of the Padma River, near the Bangladesh–India border.

“We started the journey of Othiti from Rajshahi. Tourists rarely visit this part of the country, but it is very rich, both culturally and historically. Starting from the mighty river Padma, there’s a lot of natural beauty over there,” Asif Saleh, BRAC executive director, told Arab News.

“We will not be confined within Rajshahi. There are plans to expand this tourism project in other parts of the country … in places like Sundarbans, Chottogram Hill Tracts, Cox’s Bazar. We will try to connect tourists particularly with the Indigenous communities of these areas to experience their traditions, culture, and customs. If tourists can experience the diversity of these areas, they can connect with them in a different way. It will make people prouder of the rich history and culture of our country.”

The project involves rural youth, students of the Rajshahi University, whom BRAC has employed as part-time guides to introduce visitors to their customs and traditional livelihoods.

“We have built a relationship of trust and reliability with these communities. We hope that tourists will become interested in the culture and customs of the Indigenous people, and have a better understanding and empathy towards them,” Saleh said.

“Our Othiti aims for the sector’s development as well as employment for the (local) people, which will benefit these communities … We began this project as a social enterprise. We may incur loss initially for many years, but ultimately, if the sector develops, it will attract many people.”

Indigenous communities in Bangladesh have been struggling with access to education, healthcare, and jobs. Many live in forest areas with inadequate infrastructure. Poverty and unemployment levels among these groups are much higher than among the non-Indigenous.

Moutushi Biswas, a BRAC consultant, said a number of initiatives under the Othiti program are meant to uplift the communities and their traditional skills.

For example, introducing tourists to the Premtoli village of potters helped increase demand for their earthenware and work.

“While visiting the pottery community, tourists are experiencing the craftsmanship of potters who have been engaged in this for many generations. They can experience it by themselves, making clay pots under the guidance of a traditional potter. It’s a very unique experience,” she said.

“This initiative is also strengthening the abilities of local communities … The locals who work with us are very enthusiastic about this. We are receiving huge cooperation from them.”

For Happy Soren, a 25-year-old student and Othiti guide, having tourists visit was not only strengthening the village’s economy but also helping raise awareness about her community.

“The tourists want to know our customs and religious beliefs. They want to know the reasons behind the special patterns and paintings on our houses … Our village becomes very festive when they visit us,” she said.

“We believe the tourists who experience our culture and heritage will play a role in developing our village after they go back to their own places and work. They will stand by our people.”


Top court intervenes in New Delhi pollution crisis as respiratory cases spike

People walk through a thick layer of smog as air pollution shoots up in New Delhi on Nov. 18, 2024. (AP)
Updated 15 min 5 sec ago
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Top court intervenes in New Delhi pollution crisis as respiratory cases spike

  • Number of patients with respiratory diseases has increased two to threefold
  • Court orders Delhi authorities to set up checkpoints, prevent entry of commercial vehicles

India’s top court intervened on Friday to request policing measures in New Delhi to contain severe air pollution that over the past week has led to a surge in hospital admissions for respiratory diseases.

Residents of the Indian capital again woke to a thick layer of toxic smog, with an overall Air Quality Index reading of 373, or “very poor,” according to the Central Pollution Control Board.

While conditions have slightly improved since Monday, when a medical emergency was declared with pollution reaching the “severe plus” AQI score of 484, the prolonged crisis prompted the Supreme Court to order the central and local governments to introduce new measures to contain it.

The court said during Friday’s hearing that it was “not satisfied” with the Delhi administration and police efforts to address the pollution and ordered the authorities to “ensure that check posts are immediately set up at all 113 entry points (to the capital)” to stop trucks and commercial vehicles from entering the city.

The move follows the court’s order earlier this week to suspend all construction work in the whole of New Delhi and the National Capital Region.

“It is a constitutional obligation of the central government and the states to ensure that citizens live in a pollution-free atmosphere,” the court said.

As toxic smog has persisted for over a week, Delhi authorities have shut all schools and moved classes online, while half of the government employees have been allowed to work from home.

The continuing crisis is already reflected in a surge of hospitalizations for respiratory disease.

“The cases related to lungs and respiratory problems have significantly risen,” Dr. Nikhil Modi, pulmonologist at Indraprastha Apollo Hospital in New Delhi, told Arab News, adding that the patients coming to the hospital with respiratory issues are “two to three times the normal” amount.

“Especially for those who already have underlying lung disease, the problem can be significant, and if they develop a secondary pneumonia or an infection, then they require emergency admission,” Modi said.

Toxic smog arrives in New Delhi every winter as temperatures drop, trapping toxic pollutants from tens of millions of cars, as well as construction sites, factory emissions, and waste burning. It is aggravated by farmland fires in the country’s northwest and southeast, where farmers clear stubble to prepare fields to plant wheat.


The US Embassy in London returns to normal after police carry out controlled explosion of package

Updated 16 min 26 sec ago
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The US Embassy in London returns to normal after police carry out controlled explosion of package

  • London’s Metropolitan Police Service closed a road on the west side of the embassy
  • “Local authorities investigated and cleared a suspicious package outside the Embassy,” the embassy said

LONDON: The US Embassy in London returned to normal operations Friday afternoon after police carried out the controlled explosion of a suspicious package that was found in the area earlier in the day.
London’s Metropolitan Police Service closed a road on the west side of the embassy out of an “abundance of caution” as they investigated the incident, the embassy said in a statement. The embassy said it had returned to “normal business operations” by early afternoon, although all public appointments were canceled for the day.


“Local authorities investigated and cleared a suspicious package outside the Embassy,” the embassy said. ”Thanks to @metpoliceuk for your swift action, and thanks to all visitors for your cooperation and patience at this time.”
Also Friday, authorities evacuated the south terminal of London’s Gatwick Airport while they investigated a suspicious item found in luggage. Sussex Police said they had sent an ordnance disposal team to the airport as a precaution.


A proposed deal on climate cash at UN summit highlights split between rich and poor nations

Updated 29 min 57 sec ago
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A proposed deal on climate cash at UN summit highlights split between rich and poor nations

  • “Our expectations were low, but this is a slap in the face,” said Mohamed Adow, from Power Shift Africa
  • “No developing country will fall for this. They have angered and offended the developing world”

BAKU: A new draft of a deal on cash to curb and adapt to climate change released Friday afternoon at the United Nations climate summit pledged $250 billion by 2035 from wealthy countries to poorer ones. The amount pleases the countries who will be paying, but not those on the receiving end.
The amount is more than double the previous goal of $100 billion a year set 15 years ago, but it’s less than a quarter of the number requested by developing nations struck hardest by extreme weather. But rich nations say the number is about the limit of what they can do, say it’s realistic and a stretch for democracies back home to stomach.
It struck a sour note for developing countries, which see conferences like this one as their biggest hope to pressure rich nations because they can’t attend meetings of the world’s biggest economies.
“Our expectations were low, but this is a slap in the face,” said Mohamed Adow, from Power Shift Africa. “No developing country will fall for this. They have angered and offended the developing world.”
Nations are still far apart on reaching a deal
The proposal came down from the top, the presidency of UN climate talks — called COP29 — in Baku, Azerbaijan. Delegations from numerous countries, analysts and advocates were kept in the dark about the draft until it dropped more than a half a day later than promised, prompting grumblings about how this conference was being run.
“These texts form a balanced and streamlined package,” the Presidency said in a statement. “The COP29 Presidency urges parties to study this text intently, to pave the way toward consensus, on the few options remaining.”
This proposal, which is friendly to the viewpoint of Saudi Arabia, is not a take-it-or-leave-it option, but likely only the first of two or even three proposals, said Climate Analytics CEO Bill Hare, a veteran negotiator.
“We’re in for a long night and maybe two nights before we actually reach agreement on this,” Hare said.
Just like last year’s initial proposal, which was soundly rejected, this plan is “empty” on what climate analysts call “mitigation” or efforts to reduce emissions from or completely get off coal, oil and natural gas, Hare said.
Anger at ‘meagre’ figure for climate cash
The frustration and disappointment at the proposed $250 billion figure was palpable on Friday afternoon.
“It is a disgrace that despite full awareness of the devastating climate crises afflicting developing nations and the staggering costs of climate action — amounting to trillions — developed nations have only proposed a meagre $250 billion per year,” said Harjeet Singh of the Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty.
That amount, which goes through the year 2035, is basically the old $100 billion year goal with 6 percent annual inflation, said Vaibhav Chaturvedi a climate policy analyst with New Delhi-based Council on Energy, Environment and Water.
Experts put the need at $1.3 trillion for developing countries to cover damages resulting from extreme weather, help those nations adapt to a warming planet and wean themselves from fossil fuels, with more generated by each country internally.
The amount in any deal reached at COP negotiations — often considered a “core” — will then be mobilized or leveraged for greater climate spending. But much of that means loans for countries drowning in debt.
Singh said the proposed sum — which includes loans and lacks a commitment to grant-based finance — adds “insult to injury.”
Iskander Erzini Vernoit, director of Moroccan climate think-tank Imal Initiative for Climate and Development, said “the EU and the US and other developed countries cannot claim to be committed to the Paris Agreement while putting forward such amounts” of money.
Countries reached the Paris Agreement in 2015, pledging to keep warming below 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 Fahrenheit) since pre-industrial times. The world is now at 1.3 degrees Celsius (2.3 degrees Fahrenheit), according to the UN
Rich countries call for realism
Switzerland environment minister Albert Rösti said it was important that the climate finance number is realistic.
“I think a deal with a high number that will never be realistic, that will never be paid… will be much worse than no deal,” he said.
The United States’ delegation offered a similar warning.
“It has been a significant lift over the past decade to meet the prior, smaller goal” of $100 billion, said a senior US official. “$250 billion will require even more ambition and extraordinary reach” and will need to be supported by private finance, multilateral development banks — which are large international banks funded by taxpayer dollars — and other sources of finance, the official said.
A lack of a bigger number from European nations and the US means that the “deal is clearly moving toward the direction of China playing a more prominent role in helping other global south countries,” said Li Shou of the Asia Society Policy Institute.
German delegation sources said it will be important to be in touch with China and other industrialized nations as negotiations press on into the evening.
Analysts said the proposed deal is the start of what could likely be more money.
“This can be a good down payment that will allow for good climate action in developing countries,” said Melanie Robinson, global climate program director at the World Resources Institute. “There is scope for this to go above $250 billion if contributors decides to come on board.”
Rob Moore, associate director at E3G, said that whatever figure is agreed “will need to be the start and not the end” of climate cash promises.
“If developed countries can go further they need to say so fast to make sure we get a deal at COP29,” he said.


Ukraine’s parliament cancels session after Russia fired a new missile

Updated 22 November 2024
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Ukraine’s parliament cancels session after Russia fired a new missile

  • Three Ukrainian lawmakers confirmed that the parliamentary session previously scheduled was canceled
  • President Volodymyr Zelensky’s office continued to work in compliance with standard security measures

KYIV: Ukraine’s parliament canceled a session on Friday as security was tightened after Russia deployed a new ballistic missile that threatens to escalate the nearly three-year war.
Russian troops also struck Sumy with Shahed drones overnight killing two people and injuring 12 more, the regional administration said Friday morning. The attack targeted a residential district of the city.
Ukraine’s Suspilne media, quoting Sumy regional head Volodymyr Artiukh, said the Russians used Shaheds stuffed with shrapnel elements for the first time in the region. “These weapons are used to destroy people, not to destroy objects,” said Artiukh, according to Suspilne.
Separately, Czech Foreign Minister Jan Lipavsky arrived on a visit to Kyiv. He posted a photo from Kyiv’s railway station on his X account Friday morning.
“I am interested in how the Ukrainians are coping with the bombings, how Czech projects are working on the ground and how to better target international aid in the coming months. I will discuss all of this here,” Lipavsky wrote.
Three Ukrainian lawmakers confirmed that the parliamentary session previously scheduled was canceled due to the ongoing threat of Russian missile attacks targeting government buildings in the city center.
Not only is the parliament closed, “there was also recommendation to limit the work of all commercial offices and NGOs that remain in that perimeter, and local residents were warned of the increased threat,” said lawmaker Mykyta Poturaiev, who added this is not the first time such a threat has been received.
President Volodymyr Zelensky’s office continued to work in compliance with standard security measures, a spokesperson said.
Russia on Thursday fired a new intermediate-range ballistic missile in response to Kyiv’s use of US and British longer-range missiles capable of striking deeper into Russian territory, Russian President Vladimir Putin said in an address on Thursday.
It struck a missile factory in Dnipro in central Ukraine. Putin warned that US air defense systems would be powerless to stop the new missile, which he said flies at 10 times the speed of sound and which he called Oreshnik – Russian for hazelnut tree.
The Pentagon confirmed that Russia’s missile was a new, experimental type of intermediate-range missile based on its RS-26 Rubezh intercontinental ballistic missile.