What the UK general election might mean for the Middle East 

Britain’s Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, soaked in rain, stands at a lecturn as he delivers a speech to announce July 4 as the date of the UK’s general election. (File/AFP)
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Updated 03 July 2024
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What the UK general election might mean for the Middle East 

  • Perceived inaction on Gaza has hung over the election contest between Rishi Sunak and Sir Keir Starmer
  • If the polls prove correct and Labour sweeps to power, analysts predict a far closer UK-Gulf relationship

LONDON: It was clear from the moment that British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak stood outside 10 Downing Street on May 22 and announced that he was calling a snap general election that the next six weeks would not go well for his ruling Conservative party.

For many, the raincloud that burst over Sunak’s head as he spoke seemed to sum up the past 14 years, which, riven by factional infighting, saw no fewer than four leaders in the eight years since Theresa May succeeded David Cameron in 2016.

Adding to the comedy of the moment was the soundtrack to the announcement, courtesy of a protester at the gates of Downing Street, whose sound system was blasting out the ’90s pop hit “Things Can Only Get Better” — the theme tune of Labour’s 1997 election victory.




Britain’s Prime Minister Rishi Sunak delivers a speech at a Conservative Party campaign event at the National Army Museum in London. (File/AP)

Headline writers were spoiled for choice. Contenders included “Drown and out,” “Drowning Street” and — probably the winner — “Things can only get wetter.” That last one was also prescient. 

In theory, under the rules governing general elections, Sunak need not have gone to the country until December. The reality, however, was that both Sunak and his party were already trailing badly in the polls and the consensus at Conservative HQ was that things could only get worse.

As if to prove the point, in one early Conservative campaign video, the British Union Flag was flown upside down. A series of mishaps and scandals followed, with some Conservative MPs found to have been betting against themselves and the party.




Former British PM Boris Johnson gestures as he endorses British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak at a campaign event in London, Britain, July 2, 2024. (Reuters)

Judging by the steady slide in support for the government, the electorate has neither forgotten nor forgiven the chaos of the Boris Johnson years, typified by the illegal drinks parties held in Downing Street while the rest of the nation was locked down during COVID-19 restrictions.

Nor has the electorate forgotten the failure to deliver on the great promises of Brexit, the shock to the UK economy delivered by the 44-day premiership of Liz Truss, and the inability of the government to control the UK’s borders — which was, after all, the chief reason for leaving the EU.

On the day the election was announced, a seven-day average of polls showed Labour had twice as much support as the Conservatives — 45 percent to 23 percent.

Compounding the government’s woes was the rise of Reform UK, the populist right-wing party making gains thanks largely to the failure of Sunak’s pledge to reduce immigration and “stop the boats” carrying illegal migrants across the English Channel.

On 11 percent, Reform had overtaken the Lib Dems, Britain’s traditional third-placed party, and the vast majority of the votes it seemed certain to hoover up would be those of disenchanted Conservative voters.

By the eve of today’s election, a poll of 18 polls carried out in the seven days to July 2 showed Labour’s lead had eased only very slightly, to 40 percent against the Conservatives’ 21 percent, with Reform up to 16 percent.




Labour Party leader Keir Starmer and Britain’s Prime Minister and Conservative Party leader Rishi Sunak attend a live TV debate, hosted by the BBC. (File/AFP)

On Wednesday, a final YouGov poll on the eve of voting predicted that Labour would win 431 seats, while the Conservatives would return to the new parliament on July 9 with only 102 MPs — less than a third of the 365 seats they won in 2019.

If this proves to be the case, Starmer would have a majority of 212, not only bigger than Tony Blair’s in 1997, but also the strongest performance in an election by any party since 1832.

After the polls close tonight at 10pm, there is a very good chance that Sunak may even lose his own seat, the constituency of Richmond and Northallerton, which the Conservatives have held for 114 years.

Either way, the Conservative party will be thrust into further turmoil as the battle begins to select the party’s next leader who, as many commentators are predicting, can look forward to at least a decade in opposition.




Reform UK leader Nigel Farage scratches his head as he delivers a speech during the “Rally for Reform” at the National Exhibition Centre in Birmingham. (File/AFP)

The return of Labour, a completely regenerated party after 14 years in the wilderness, is likely to be good news for Britain’s relationships in the Middle East, as Arab News columnist Muddassar Ahmed predicted this week.

Distracted by one domestic or internal crisis after another, the Conservatives have not only neglected their friends and allies in the region but, in an attempt to stem the loss of its supporters to Reform UK, have also pandered to racial and religious prejudices.

“The horrific scenes unfolding in Gaza, for example, have rocked Muslims worldwide while pitting different faith communities against one another,” Ahmed wrote.




A Palestinian boy who suffers from malnutrition receives care at the Kamal Adwan hospital in Beit Lahia in the northern Gaza Strip on July 2, 2024. (AFP)

“But instead of working to rebuild the relationships between British Muslims, Jews and Christians, the Conservative government has branded efforts to support Palestinians as little more than insurgent ‘hate marches’ — using the horrific conflict to wedge communities that ought to be allied.”

On the other hand, Labour appears determined to reinvigorate the country’s relationship with a region once central to the UK’s interests.

January this year saw the launch of the Labour Middle East Council (LMEC), founded with “the fundamental goal of cultivating understanding and fostering enduring relationships between UK parliamentarians and the Middle East and North Africa.”

Chaired by Sir William Patey, a former head of the Middle East Department at the Foreign and Commonwealth Office and an ambassador to Afghanistan, Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Sudan, and with an advisory board featuring two other former British ambassadors to the region, the LMEC will be a strong voice whispering in the ear of a Labour government that will be very open to what it has to say.




Britain’s Labour Party leader Keir Starmer speaks on stage at the launch of the party’s manifesto in Manchester, England, Thursday, June 13, 2024. (AP)

Writing in The House magazine, Sir William predicted “a paradigm shift in British foreign policy is imminent.”

He added: “As a nation with deep-rooted historical connections to the Middle East, the UK has a unique role to play in fostering a stable and prosperous region.”

The role of the LMEC would be “to harness these connections for a positive future. We will work collaboratively to address pressing global issues, from climate change to technological advancement, ensuring that our approach is always one of respect, partnership, and shared progress.”

David Lammy, Labour’s shadow foreign secretary, has already made several visits to the region since Oct. 7. In April he expressed “serious concerns about a breach in international humanitarian law” over Israel’s military offensive in Gaza.




Britain’s main opposition Labour Party Shadow Foreign Secretary David Lammy addresses delegates at the annual Labour Party conference in Liverpool. (File/AFP)

It was, he added, “important to reaffirm that a life lost is a life lost whether that is a Muslim or a Jew.” In May, Lammy called for the UK to pause arms sales to Israel.

In opposition, Labour has hesitated to call for a ceasefire in Gaza, but this has been a product of its own internal and domestic tensions. Starmer has brought the party back on track after years of accusations by UK Jewish activist groups that under his predecessor Jeremy Corbyn it was fundamentally antisemitic.

Whether the charges were true, or whether the party’s staunch support of the Palestinian cause was misrepresented as antisemitism, was a moot point. Starmer knew that, in the run-up to a general election, this was hard-won ground that he could not afford to lose.

Nevertheless, even as he has alienated some Muslim communities in the UK for his failure to call for a ceasefire, he has spoken out repeatedly against the horrors that have unfolded in Gaza.




A protester looks on in Parliament Square, central London, on June 8, 2024 at the end of the “National March for Gaza”. (File/AFP) 

Crucially, he has consistently backed the two-state solution, and the creation of “a viable Palestinian state where the Palestinian people and their children enjoy the freedoms and opportunities that we all take for granted.”

In broader terms, Lammy has also made clear that Labour intends to re-engage with the Middle East through a new policy of what he called “progressive realism.”

Less than a week before Sunak called his surprise general election, Lammy spoke of the need for the UK to mend relations with the Gulf states, which he saw as “hugely important for security in the Middle East” and “important in relation to our economic growth missions.”

Because of missteps by the Conservative government, he added, relations between the UAE and the UK, for example, were at “an all-time low. That is not acceptable and not in the UK’s national interests (and) we will seek to repair that.”

In an article he wrote for Foreign Affairs magazine, Lammy went further.

China, he said, was not the world’s only rising power, and “a broadening group of states — including Brazil, India, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE — have claimed seats at the table. They and others have the power to shape their regional environments, and they ignore the EU, the UK, and the US ever more frequently.”

Lammy expressed regret for “the chaotic Western military interventions during the first decades of this century,” in Afghanistan, Iraq and Libya, which had proved to be a “recipe for disorder.”

As shadow foreign secretary, he has traveled extensively across the MENA region, to countries including Bahrain, Egypt, Israel, Jordan, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Turkiye, the UAE, and the Occupied Palestinian Territories.

All, he wrote, “will be vital partners for the UK in this decade, not least as the country seeks to reconstruct Gaza and — as soon as possible — realize a two-state solution.”

For many regional observers, Labour is starting with a clean sheet, but has much to prove.

“It is an acknowledged fact among scholars that foreign policies don’t radically change after elections,” Arshin Adib-Moghaddam, professor in global thought and comparative philosophies at the School of Oriental and African Studies in London, told Arab News.

“Therefore, I don’t expect major shifts once Labour forms the government in the UK.

“That said, the composition of the Labour party and its ‘backbench’ politics are likely to shift the language and probably even the code of conduct, in particular with reference to the question of Palestine. For a Labour leader it may be that much more difficult to be agnostic about the horrific human rights situation in Gaza.”




Displaced Palestinians flee after the Israeli army issued a new evacuation order for parts of Khan Yunis and Rafah on July 2, 2024. (AFP)

For political analysts advising international clients, however, the implications of a Labour victory extend beyond the situation in Gaza.

“In an attempt to secure political longevity, the party will renegotiate key policy priorities in the Middle East,” said Kasturi Mishra, a political consultant at Hardcastle, a global advisory firm that has been closely following the foreign policy implications of the UK election for its clients in business and international politics.

“This could include calling for a ceasefire in Gaza, ending arms sales to Israel, reviving trade and diplomacy with the Gulf states and increasing the UK’s defense spending in the region,” Mishra told Arab News.

“This renegotiation is important at a time when the UK finds itself increasingly uncertain of its global position.




Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan meets with Shadow Foreign Secretary of the British Labor Party David Lammy on the sidelines of the Manama Dialogue 2023 held in Bahrain. (SPA)

“The Middle East has significant geopolitical and security implications for the West. Labour policy-makers recognize this and are likely to deepen British engagement with the region to reshape its soft power and influence.”

Mishra highlighted Lammy’s multiple trips to the region as a foretaste of a Labour’s intention to strengthen ties with the Gulf states, “which have been neglected in post-Brexit Britain. 

“Given the influential role of Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Qatar in regional security and the potential to collaborate with them on climate mitigation and other international issues, it is clear that he will seek to forge partnerships.

“His doctrine of progressive realism combines a values-based world order with pragmatism. It is expected that he will favor personalized diplomacy, more akin to that of the UAE, India and France.”

 


Trial operation to remove radioactive debris from Fukushima nuclear plant successful

Updated 8 sec ago
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Trial operation to remove radioactive debris from Fukushima nuclear plant successful

  • Extracting the estimated 880 tonnes of highly radioactive fuel and debris from Fukushima remains the most challenging part of the decades-long decommissioning process
TOKYO: A difficult operation to remove a small piece of radioactive debris from Japan’s stricken Fukushima nuclear plant using a robotic device was completed successfully, the plant operator said Thursday, after technical issues halted earlier attempts.
Extracting the estimated 880 tonnes of highly radioactive fuel and debris from Fukushima remains the most challenging part of the decades-long decommissioning process.
But radioactivity levels inside the former power station, which went into meltdown in 2011 after being hit by a catastrophic tsunami, are too high for humans to enter.
So engineers used a specially developed extendible robotic device to remove a sample with a diameter of five millimeters (0.2 inches), aiming to study it for clues about conditions inside the stricken reactors.
The trial debris removal began in September, after an initial attempt in August was suspended at an early stage over a problem with the equipment’s installation.
Another technical snag related to cameras on the apparatus caused a pause of over a month before the procedure resumed in late October.
On Thursday, plant operator TEPCO said it had “completed the trial removal of fuel debris,” declaring the operation a success after several complex steps.
Over the weekend, the robot managed to remove a piece of debris from a containment vessel surrounding a damaged reactor for the first time.
Technicians then tested the radiation level of the sample on Tuesday and put it in a special container.
It will be sent to research institutes in Ibaraki north of Tokyo for analysis, a TEPCO spokeswoman said, adding that the company is still studying when it will be able to start the full-fledged removal of the radioactive debris.
Three of Fukushima’s six reactors were operating when the tsunami hit on March 11, 2011, triggering the worst nuclear disaster since Chernobyl.
Japan last year began releasing into the Pacific Ocean some of the 540 Olympic swimming pools’ worth of treated reactor cooling water amassed since the disaster.
The step sparked a diplomatic row with China and Russia, both of which banned seafood imports, although Japan insists the discharge is safe, a view backed by the UN atomic agency.
Beijing, however, said in September it would “gradually resume” importing seafood from Japan after imposing the blanket ban.

EU leaders call on Georgia to probe vote ‘irregularities’

Updated 27 min 58 sec ago
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EU leaders call on Georgia to probe vote ‘irregularities’

  • They added they would not be able to support the ex-Soviet republic’s ambitions to join the European Union

BUDAPEST: The leaders of France, Germany and Poland called on Georgia Thursday to quickly probe “numerous irregularities” during a recent parliamentary poll won by the Russia-leaning ruling party but contested by the pro-Western opposition.
In a joint statement, the EU countries’ leaders said they were “deeply concerned by the numerous irregularities and voter intimidation” reported during the vote.
They added they would not be able to support the ex-Soviet republic’s ambitions to join the European Union unless it showed it was serious about carrying out necessary reforms.
“If Georgia does not change course by demonstrating concrete efforts in terms of reform... we will not be able to support the opening of accession negotiations with this country to the European Union,” French President Emmanuel Macron, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said in a joint statement.
The pro-Western opposition in Georgia, a small country tucked in the Caucasus, has refused to recognize the ruling Georgian Dream party’s win in the October 26 election or to enter the newly elected parliament, which it calls “illegitimate.”
The European Union and the United States blasted “irregularities” in the vote, while Georgian Dream’s opponents have accused it of putting the Caucasus country on a pro-Kremlin track.


Philippines evacuates thousands ahead of Typhoon Yinxing

Updated 57 min 21 sec ago
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Philippines evacuates thousands ahead of Typhoon Yinxing

  • Packing maximum sustained wind speeds of 175 kilometers (109 miles) per hour, Typhoon Yinxing could make landfall in the northern Philippines later in the day or early Friday, the state weather agency

MANILA: The Philippines has evacuated thousands of people from coastal communities ahead of a major typhoon, officials said Thursday, just weeks after a tropical cyclone left at least 150 people dead.
Packing maximum sustained wind speeds of 175 kilometers (109 miles) per hour, Typhoon Yinxing could make landfall in the northern Philippines later in the day or early Friday, the state weather agency said.
Yinxing is the third storm in less than a month to threaten the Philippines after Severe Tropical Storm Trami and Super Typhoon Kong-rey together left 158 people dead, the national disaster agency said, with most of that tally attributed to Trami.
At least 17,000 people from coastal areas of Cagayan province, in the country’s far north, moved into temporary shelters on Wednesday to avoid potential flooding from heavy rains now pounding the region, provincial rescue official Rueli Rapsing told AFP.
“I’m expecting more evacuees to arrive since there is an ongoing evacuation in the municipalities,” Rapsing said.
The national weather agency said Cagayan, home to about 1.3 million people, might bear the brunt of Yinxing based on its current trajectory.
“We have already depleted the quick response fund of the province and we’re actually asking the national disaster council for the replenishment of the quick response fund so we can provide assistance,” Rapsing said.
In Ilocos Norte province near Cagayan, rescuers were on standby to help local police, fire officers and soldiers in emergency response, provincial rescue official Randy Nicolas told AFP.
Nicolas said they are closely monitoring possible landslides, floods and swelling of rivers in the province, with storm surges — huge waves along the coast, also a concern in Ilocos Norte and Cagayan.
Disaster officials in the mountainous province of Apayao said almost 500 people have been evacuated.
“We really prioritized preemptive evacuations because we want to have zero deaths here in Apayao,” provincial disaster official Aldrin Agmata told AFP.
School has been suspended in many areas of the north and President Ferdinand Marcos put all government agencies on high alert so they can swiftly respond.
“Remember, every life is important so we should always be prepared,” Marcos said in a statement on Wednesday.


Japan PM to boost defense alliance with ‘very friendly’ Trump

Updated 07 November 2024
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Japan PM to boost defense alliance with ‘very friendly’ Trump

  • Key allies Japan and the United States are each other’s top foreign investors

TOKYO: Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba said Thursday he had agreed with US president-elect Donald Trump in a phone call to strengthen the nations’ alliance, after the tycoon’s victory sent defense-related shares surging.
Trump’s “America First” approach could mean less cash from Washington for security in the Asia-Pacific region, analysts say — with investors betting on Japan upgrading its own military capacities.
Key allies Japan and the United States are each other’s top foreign investors, and 54,000 US military personnel are stationed in Japan, mostly in Okinawa east of Taiwan.
Ishiba, who took office just over a month ago, said he and Trump hoped to organize a face-to-face meeting “as soon as possible,” describing the president-elect as “very friendly.”
“He is the kind of person I will be able to talk to candidly,” Ishiba told reporters.
“I would like to hold active discussions on the strengthening of the Japan-US alliance from various standpoints including specific equipment, operations and integration, not just money,” he added.
Shares in Japanese defense contractor IHI ended up nearly 20 percent Wednesday, as Trump’s victory began to look secure, and Mitsubishi Heavy Industries gained almost 10 percent.
The expectation is “that Trump will demand that allies do more and spend more to defend themselves,” said Claudia Junghyun Kim, an assistant professor of international affairs at City University of Hong Kong.
Japan is already in the process of doubling its military spending to the NATO standard of two percent of GDP.
“This pressure from Trump doesn’t exactly clash with Ishiba’s hope to increase defense spending,” Kim told AFP, and it “should be good news for Japan’s defense industry.”
US elections
When Trump last won a US election in 2016, then-prime minister Shinzo Abe was the first foreign leader to meet the president-elect at his Manhattan skyscraper.
Japanese media said Ishiba could arrange a trip to the United States around the time he attends the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in Peru this month.
“On a personal level, Ishiba might be in a challenging position” when he meets Trump, Daisuke Kawai, deputy director of the University of Tokyo’s economic security research program, told AFP.
“Ishiba is a railway enthusiast who doesn’t enjoy golf or social dinners, and unlike Abe, he’s not particularly adept at engaging in social or entertaining conversations. This could mean their personal chemistry may not align well.”
Both Ishiba and Trump perceive the US-Japan alliance as unequal — but in opposite directions — so “initiating productive discussions could be difficult,” Kawai added.
Ishiba led his ruling coalition to a disastrous loss of its majority in snap elections last month.
He is expected to lead a minority government or widen the coalition to include other parties.
Japan and the EU announced a sweeping new security and defense pact on Friday.
Kawai said it was important for Tokyo to build a defense ecosystem “that generates profits through joint production with other countries.”
Japan, which for decades has relied on the United States for military hardware, is also developing a new fighter jet with EU member Italy and Britain set to be airborne by 2035.


Indonesia volcano belches colossal ash tower

Updated 07 November 2024
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Indonesia volcano belches colossal ash tower

  • Mount Lewotobi Laki-Laki erupted on Monday and Tuesday, killing nine people and forcing the relocation of residents
  • Laki-Laki, which means ‘man’ in Indonesian, is twinned with a calmer volcano named after the Indonesian word for ‘woman’

EAST FLORES, Indonesia: A volcano in eastern Indonesia erupted more than half a dozen times on Thursday, catapulting a colossal ash tower five miles into the sky against a backdrop of lightning as nearby residents fled in panic.
Mount Lewotobi Laki-Laki erupted on Monday and Tuesday, killing nine people and forcing the relocation of residents from a 7-kilometer (4.3-mile) exclusion zone.
The country’s volcanology agency reported seven eruptions on Thursday, the biggest of which belched an ash tower five miles (eight kilometers) high, according to an observation post.
Some said it was the biggest eruption they had ever seen from Lewotobi Laki-Laki.
“This is the first time I saw this big eruption since I’ve been living in Lewolaga village,” said Anastasia Adriyani, 41, who lives outside the exclusion zone.
“I was cooking at the community kitchen (for evacuees) and when it happened, I ran back home. I was very scared.”
Officials have raised the alert level for the 1,703-meter (5,587-foot) twin-peaked volcano on the tourist island of Flores to the highest level.
There were no immediate reports of damage to nearby villages from Thursday’s fresh eruptions.
But residents and schoolchildren were seen running from their homes, according to an AFP journalist, who added volcanic lightning was also seen.
Locals at a temporary shelter were anxious as the latest eruptions rumbled on Thursday morning.
“It is sad to think of our village, and we are also panicked seeing the continuous eruptions. Since last night and this morning, we’re still worried,” said evacuee Antonius Puka, 56.
Laki-Laki, which means “man” in Indonesian, is twinned with a calmer volcano named after the Indonesian word for “woman.”
Indonesia, a vast archipelago nation, experiences frequent seismic and volcanic activity due to its position on the Pacific “Ring of Fire.”