Why the US election in 2028 matters more for the world 
Throughout most of the 20th century, incumbent presidents seeking reelection in the US enjoyed a significant advantage at the ballot box.
This was largely due to voters’ tendency to reward presidents for their performance in office, character and personal qualities, rather than solely on party affiliation.
This trend inspired Allan Lichtman, a distinguished professor of history at an American university, to produce a set of criteria to forecast presidential elections.
Lichtman’s metrics include incumbency, party mandate, the economy and social unrest, which he has used to correctly predict nine of the last 10 US elections.
Even though Lichtman has not made a final prediction about the 2024 election, he believes President Joe Biden has an advantage. He has warned the Democratic Party that replacing Biden with another candidate would likely benefit former president Donald Trump because of the incumbency advantage.
Lichtman’s warning highlights the potential for a fractured Democratic Party to weaken their chances in 2024, potentially benefiting a challenger like Trump.
Historical records show that, in most cases, presidents who decided not to run for a second term were succeeded by someone from the opposing party, as exemplified by James K. Polk, Rutherford B. Hayes, and Lyndon B. Johnson.
In each of these instances, the opposing party won the White House. However, this was not always the case. For example, when President Calvin Coolidge announced in 1927 that he would not run for a second term in 1928 for family reasons, he was succeeded by Herbert Hoover, a fellow Republican.
Interestingly, some people are starting to discuss US President Grover Cleveland’s unique situation in 1892, when he won a second non-consecutive term after losing to Benjamin Harrison in 1888.
They believe that Trump, who some have labelled a narcissist, could become the second US president to achieve this, although the political landscape and the factors driving their potential wins are vastly different.
As the US prepares for the 2024 election, a stark reality emerges: its leadership, regardless of party, is grappling with both illness and the weight of age.
Biden, at 81, is not his party’s only senior member. Democrat Chuck Schumer, the majority leader of the senate, is 73. Others nearing the end of their careers are Hillary Clinton, 76, Bernie Sanders and Mitch McConnell, 82, and Nancy Pelosi, 84.
On the Republican side, Trump, at 79, is part of this demographic.
There is no doubt that the time for a new generation of leaders to take charge of the US is approaching. This raises a crucial question for the world: how will the global political landscape be reshaped by the emergence of new faces in US politics?
The 2028 election will likely be a defining moment, revealing the answer to this question.
- Nasser bin Hamed Al-Ahmad is a political analyst. X: @nasseralahmad3
