Western recognition of Palestine can put pressure on Israel

Following the victory of the left in last week’s French assembly elections, newly elected member Mathilde Panot said France would recognize the state of Palestine within the next two weeks. That would be an important development, as it could compel Israel to enter into a political process, which is something the Israelis have been avoiding for decades.

Of course, logically, the best way to solve the problem that has been ongoing since 1948 is to share the land and adopt a two-state solution. However, from an Israeli perspective, the issue is not as simple as that. For Israel, recognition would be a Pandora’s box. Recognizing a Palestinian state would mean recognizing Palestinians’ right to the land. And recognizing Palestinians’ right to the land might entail recognizing their right of return, which Israelis deem to be an existential threat.

A Palestinian state would also be a major blow to the current version of Zionism. A Palestinian state would raise many existential questions in the Israeli psyche. Zionism rests on the premise that historic Palestine is the Jews’ promised land. How could they share with others a gift given by God to his “chosen people?” What about Judea and Samaria (the West Bank)? Will they give that area up for ever? The most important questions that the establishment of a Palestinian state would raise for Israelis are “who are we?” and “why are we here?” Israel has been trying to evade these questions since its establishment.

There is also a perceived security risk. Israelis are worried that, if Palestinian are no longer under their control, they will organize and reclaim the land that was once theirs. The West Bank is also based on an elevation overlooking Tel Aviv. Despite being under siege for 17 years in the enclave of Gaza, Palestinians were still able to conduct Oct. 7. What if they had their own state stretching over the West Bank and Gaza? Even a demilitarized state would not give the Israelis enough assurance. A state that is demilitarized today can become militarized tomorrow, once it establishes itself and forges enough international alliances.

The Israelis do not want a two-state solution. They will only recognize a Palestinian state when they have no other options

Dr. Dania Koleilat Khatib

The Israelis’ optimal choice is to maintain the status quo: no Palestinian state and the West Bank and Gaza not formally annexed, as they do not want Palestinians to become de facto Israeli citizens. Hence, they do not want a two-state solution and they do not want a one-state solution.

Even Yair Lapid, who is supposed to be the most liberal of today’s leading Israeli politicians, is trying to avoid a two-state solution. In a speech at the Knesset, he hinted that a Palestinian state is a long-term project and the onus is on the Palestinians to prove they deserve one and they do not constitute any threat. In a nutshell, the Israelis do not want a two-state solution. They need to be forced into accepting it. They will only recognize a Palestinian state when they have no other options.

The recognition of the state of Palestine by Western countries would put pressure on Israel to do the same. In fact, the recognition of a Palestinian state would send a signal to the Israelis that the West will no longer humor them and allow them to have a free hand with the Palestinians. After all, it is the West’s support that has allowed Israel to thrive for 80 years. Israel cannot deny a Palestinian state that the Western world recognizes. Once it accepts that it will recognize a Palestinian state, the rest becomes mere details that can be negotiated. Recognition is the most important step.

Israel has rebuffed the recent recognition of Palestine by Norway, Spain and Ireland, claiming that it offered a reward for terror. However, Israel itself was recognized a few weeks after the Deir Yassin terror attack on innocent civilians. Yitzhak Shamir, one of the main perpetrators of the massacre, later became Israel’s prime minister. The more Western countries recognize the state of Palestine, the more pressure will be placed on Israel to accept the Palestinian state as a fait accompli.

Recognition of the state of Palestine could also be a tool for Western governments to reconcile with their Muslim communities. In an interview this week, new UK Prime Minister Keir Stamer was twice asked about the loss of Muslim votes that caused his Labour Party to miss out on a handful of seats in last week’s election. He tried to evade the question by replying that Labour still won a huge mandate and is responsible for change.

Recognition of their state will give Palestinians hope that there is a political avenue to realize their quest for dignity and freedom

Dr. Dania Koleilat Khatib

Though Labour won, Starmer needs to address the division among his ranks over Gaza. Recognizing Palestine would be the best way to reconcile with those on the left who have been critical of his stance. The Liberal Democrats’ manifesto clearly stated that the party advocates an immediate ceasefire in Gaza and wants to push for a two-state solution. The manifesto calls for officially recognising the state of Palestine with immediate effect.

Actually, recognition of their state will give Palestinians hope that there is a political avenue to realize their quest for dignity and freedom. This would be the best way to counter the Hamas narrative that calls for armed resistance. Hamas’s anti-Western narrative is validated by the West’s rejection of a Palestinian state. Hamas rose to power because Palestinians were disillusioned with the Palestinian Authority, which opted for a political struggle.

For 30 years, the PA has not been able to realize the Palestinian dream of statehood. In the Palestinian-Israeli equation, the Palestinians are the weaker element. They have no leverage over the Israelis. Hence, the Israelis do not find themselves compelled to make any concessions to the Palestinians. Western countries’ recognition of the state of Palestinian would create the necessary pressure to compel Tel Aviv to accept a Palestinian state and hopefully recognize it.

The statement of French assembly member Panot was important. Western policies that were based on the outcome of the Second World War and on the West’s feelings of guilt are starting to change. The West is starting to realize the calamity it caused for the Palestinians and that Palestinians have the right to dignity and freedom through statehood like everyone else. This is just the beginning of a change in the West’s policies.

• Dr. Dania Koleilat Khatib is a specialist in US-Arab relations with a focus on lobbying. She is co-founder of the Research Center for Cooperation and Peace Building, a Lebanese nongovernmental organization focused on Track II.