BEIJING: China’s ruling Communist Party is starting a four-day meeting Monday that is expected to lay out a strategy for self-sufficient economic growth in an era of heightened national security concerns and restrictions on access to American technology.
While the meeting typically focuses on such long-term issues, business owners and investors will also be watching to see if the party announces any immediate measures to try to counter a prolonged real estate downturn and persistent malaise that has suppressed China’s post-COVID-19 recovery.
“There’s a lot of unclarity of policy direction in China,” which is weighing on consumer and investor confidence, said Bert Hofman, the former World Bank country director for China and a professor at the National University of Singapore. “This is a point in time where China needs to show its cards.”
The outcome of the meeting will send a message to local government officials and others about the future direction of policy. The general expectation is that it will confirm a path laid out by Chinese leader Xi Jinping, though some hope for some fine-tuning to address concerns that increasing government control over business and society is stifling economic growth.
What is the “third plenum” and why does it matter?
The Communist Party’s 205-member Central Committee is holding its third plenum, or the third plenary session of a five-year term that started in 2022. This year’s meeting was expected to be held last year, but was delayed.
Historically, this third meeting has emerged as one at which major economic and policy decisions have been set, though not every time. Analysts say the plenum often sets longer-term directions impacting the economy.
1. In 1978, the meeting endorsed the “reform and opening up” of former leader Deng Xiaoping, the transformation from a planned economy to a more market-based economy that propelled China’s growth in the ensuing decades.
2. In 1993, it endorsed a “socialist market economy” that sealed the victory of reformers battling against conservatives warning about the dangers of economic liberalization.
3. In 2013, in another endorsement of reform, it said that the market would become the decisive force in the allocation of resources.
The last pronouncement, made a year after Xi became leader, didn’t come to be. Within a couple of years, the party began backtracking before setting off in a new direction in 2017, Hofman said.
What issues are at stake?
Under Xi, the Communist Party has decided that the party needs to be at the center of efforts to take China to the next level of development. China is now the world’s second largest economy, but with a population of 1.4 million people, it is also still a middle-income country.
The government has reined in China’s high-flying tech giants, such as Alibaba, the fintech and e-commerce giant. As the United States became more adversarial, Xi pushed Chinese companies and universities to try to develop the high-end semiconductors and other technology that is being blocked by US restrictions on exports to China.
Free-market advocates are concerned this government-led approach is discouraging the entrepreneurial spirit. Another worry is that the rising importance of national security will take a toll on economic growth. The government has investigated companies that transferred economic data overseas in what appears to be a widening definition of what constitutes a breach of the law.
A major change in direction is not expected and would be momentous if it were to happen. Instead, the degree to which the meeting acknowledges concerns about the business environment and national security could signal whether there will be some policy adjustments.
What policy shifts might happen?
Further support for high-tech industries that are considered vital for national security and future growth is all but certain, along with related industrial policies.
But the party faces demands on other fronts. Alexander Davey, an analyst at the Mercator Institute for China Studies in Germany, said they are watching how the government will balance two major prerogatives: economic growth and social equity.
Local governments are heavily in debt, with multiple cities suspending transit services because they could not afford to keep running them. In February last year, the city of Shangqiu, home to more than 7 million people, temporarily shut down bus lines.
“There may be a bit of a shift, does the central government issue more debt to local government so they can run their services?” Davey said. The trade off will be between vast resources poured into science and tech development, areas deemed vital to national security, and social services.
Investors will be on the lookout for indications that the government, having increased its control over the economy, will take any steps to create a more favorable environment for private companies.
Then, there is the real estate market. In April, the government announced policies that signaled a shift in its approach by funding direct purchases of unsold homes.
“A notable first-half shift in China’s property stance,” said Yifan Hu, chief investment officer for greater China at UBS bank, in a statement. “This ongoing pressure underscores the need for additional easing, which we think will be forthcoming given the supportive policy tone.”
China’s Communist Party will signal its approach to the country’s challenges at a meeting this week
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China’s Communist Party will signal its approach to the country’s challenges at a meeting this week
- Under Xi, the Communist Party has decided that the party needs to be at the center of efforts to take China to the next level of development.
- China is now the world’s second largest economy, but with a population of 1.4 million people, it is also still a middle-income country
UK’s David Lammy: hand of Russia seen in many world conflicts at present
BRUSSELS: Russia’s involvement can be seen in many of the wars currently taking place across the world, said British Foreign Minister David Lammy at a NATO meeting on Wednesday, as he urged NATO allies to ‘get serious’ over defense spending.
“We are living in dangerous times,” said Lammy.
“And as we look across the world with war here on our continent in Europe, with the tremendous aggression that we are seeing across the Middle East with the hand of Iran so present in the Middle East and with this rising conflict in Sudan and now in Syria, there is one country with its hand in so much of it, and that is Russia,” he added.
New UN aid chief vows ‘ruthlessness’ to prioritize spending as funding for world’s crises shrinks
- The UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs is issuing its global appeal for 2025
GENEVA: The new head of the UN humanitarian aid agency says it will be “ruthless” when prioritizing how to spend money, a nod to challenges in fundraising for civilians in war zones like Gaza, Sudan, Syria and Ukraine.
Tom Fletcher, a longtime British diplomat who took up the UN post last month, said his agency is asking for less money in 2025 than this year. He said it wants to show “we will focus and target the resources we have,” even as crises grow more numerous, intense and long-lasting.
His agency, the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, on Wednesday issued its global appeal for 2025, seeking $47 billion to help 190 million people in 32 countries — though it estimates 305 million worldwide need help.
“The world is on fire, and this is how we put it out,” he told reporters on Tuesday.
The office and many other aid groups, including the international Red Cross, have seen donations shrink in recent years for longtime trouble spots like Syria, South Sudan, the Middle East and Congo and newer ones like Ukraine and Sudan. Aid access has been difficult in some places, especially Sudan and Gaza.
The office’s appeal for $50 billion for this year was only 43 percent fulfilled as of last month. One consequence of that shortfall was a 80 percent reduction in food aid for Syria, which has seen a sudden escalation in fighting in recent days.
Such funds go to UN agencies and more than 1,500 partner organizations.
The biggest asks for 2025 are for Syria — a total of $8.7 billion for needs both within the country and for neighbors that have taken in Syrian refugees — as well as Sudan at a total of $6 billion, the “Occupied Palestinian Territory” at $4 billion, Ukraine at about $3.3 billion and Congo at nearly $3.2 billion.
Fletcher said his office needs to be “ruthless” in choosing to reach people most in need.
“I choose that word carefully, because it’s a judgment call — that ruthlessness — about prioritizing where the funding goes and where we can have the greatest impact,” he said. “It’s a recognition that we have struggled in previous years to raise the money we need.”
In response to questions about how much President-elect Donald Trump of the United States — the UN’s biggest single donor — will spend on humanitarian aid, Fletcher said he expects to spend “a lot of time” in Washington over the next few months to talk with the new administration.
“America is very much on our minds at the moment,” he said, acknowledging some governments “will be more questioning of what the United Nations does and less ideologically supportive of this humanitarian effort” laid out in the new report.
Taipei to host Shanghai delegation in rare high level visit
- Shanghai Vice Mayor Hua Yuan would visit from Dec. 16-17
- Taiwan’s government has pushed to re-open talks with China but Beijing refuses
TAIPEI: Taiwan’s capital will host a rare high level Chinese delegation later this month when a deputy mayor of Shanghai visits for an annual city forum, a trip that will be happening at a time of heightened tensions across the Taiwan Strait.
Shanghai Vice Mayor Hua Yuan would visit from Dec. 16-17 for the Taipei-Shanghai City Forum, which was first held in 2010, Taipei city government spokesperson Yin Wei told reporters on Wednesday.
“This year is the 15th time it will be held, and 45 memorandums of understanding have been held in the past which a very good result for city exchanges between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait,” he added.
China’s official Xinhua news agency confirmed the forum would take place in Taipei this year.
“Cross-strait city exchanges are conducive to enhancing the affinity and well-being of compatriots on both sides of the Taiwan Strait and promoting the peaceful development of relations,” it said in a brief report.
Taipei Mayor Chiang Wan-an is from the main opposition Kuomintang party, which traditionally favors close ties across the strait and dialogue though denies being pro-Beijing.
Chiang is a rising star in the party and widely considered a future presidential candidate.
He visited Shanghai last year for the same city forum.
China, which claims the democratically governed island as its territory, has been carrying out military activities near Taiwan, including regularly sending fighter jets into the air space around it.
Taiwan’s government has pushed to re-open talks with China but Beijing refuses to engage with President Lai Ching-te, calling him a “separatist.”
Lai says only Taiwan’s people can decide their future.
Depleted by war, Ukraine gives absconding soldiers second chance
- Ukraine lacks soldiers to hold back much bigger enemy
- Rate of troops fleeing front or bases has jumped in 2024
KYIV: As Ukraine’s military struggles to find enough troops, particularly infantry, to hold off Russia’s much larger army, some units are giving a second chance to those who have absconded from service.
Data from the prosecutor’s office shows nearly 95,000 criminal cases have been opened since 2022 against soldiers going “absent without leave” (AWOL) and for the more serious crime of battlefield desertion.
The number of cases has risen steeply with each year of the war: almost two-thirds of the total are from 2024. With many tens of thousands of troops killed or wounded, it is a depletion that Ukraine can ill afford.
Now, some units are replenishing their ranks by accepting soldiers previously declared AWOL.
One of them is Ukraine’s elite 47th Brigade, which published a social media post last month inviting soldiers who had absconded to join.
“Our aim is to give every soldier the opportunity to come back into the fold and realize his potential,” the post announced. In the first two days, the brigade said, over a hundred applications came in.
“There was a tsunami of applications; so many that we still aren’t able to process them all before new ones come in,” Viacheslav Smirnov, the 47th’s head of recruitment, said two weeks after the announcement.
Two military units Reuters spoke to said they were only recruiting soldiers who had gone AWOL from their bases, rather than those who had deserted from combat.
The former is seen within the Ukrainian military as a lesser offense. A bill recently signed into law has in effect decriminalized a soldier’s first disappearance, allowing them to return to service.
Thousands of Ukrainian soldiers rejoin after absconding
Col. Oleksandr Hrynchuk, deputy head of Ukraine’s military police, told reporters on Tuesday that 6,000 AWOL soldiers had returned to service in the last month, including 3,000 in the 72 hours since the law was signed.
Mykhailo Perets, an officer from the K-2 battalion of Ukraine’s 54th Brigade, said his battalion had already hired over 30 men who had gone AWOL from other units.
“The reasons [for absconding] are very different: for some people it was too tough a transition straight from civilian life, others served for a year or two as qualified pilots but were then sent to the front line because there wasn’t enough infantry.”
Perets said those who had applied also included men who had become exhausted and run away after being at war for seven or eight years, having fought Russian-backed forces in eastern Ukraine before 2022.
Gil Barndollar, a non-resident fellow at the US-based Defense Priorities think tank, said the increase in unauthorized absences was most likely driven by exhaustion.
Ukrainian service personnel have previously said how the lack of replacements for lost soldiers puts an unbearable strain on those remaining, exhausting them physically and mentally.
Barndollar also highlighted their average age as an additional strain.
“An army of men, often in poor health, in their 40s, all else being equal, is going to get exhausted sooner and is going to have morale problems faster than a reasonably fit army of 20- or 25-year-olds.”
Zelensky has responded to questions about the manpower problem by arguing that Ukraine lacks weapons rather than people, and pushed back against US pressure to lower the minimum draft age to 18 from 25.
He said in an interview with Sky News last week that Kyiv’s allies had been able to provide the necessary equipment for only a quarter of the 10 new brigades Ukraine had formed over the past year.
South Korean leader urged to resign or be impeached after imposing sudden martial law
- Yoon abruptly imposed martial law Tuesday night, vowing to eliminate “anti-state” forces after he struggled to push his agenda in parliament
SEOUL: South Korea’s main opposition party on Wednesday urged President Yoon Suk Yeol to resign immediately or face impeachment, hours after Yoon ended a short-lived martial law that prompted troops to encircle parliament before lawmakers voted to lift it.
Yoon’s senior advisers and secretaries offered to resign collectively and his Cabinet members, including Defense Minister Kim Yong Hyun, were also facing calls to step down, as the nation struggled to make sense of what appeared to be a poorly-thought-out stunt.
In the capital, tourists and residents walked around, traffic and construction were heard, and other than crowds of police holding shields, it seemed like a normal sunny, cold December morning.
On Tuesday night, Yoon abruptly imposed the emergency martial law, vowing to eliminate “anti-state” forces after he struggled to push forward his agenda in the opposition-dominated parliament. But his martial law was effective for only about six hours, as the National Assembly voted to overrule the president. The declaration was formally lifted around 4:30 a.m. during a Cabinet meeting.
The liberal opposition Democratic Party, which holds a majority in the 300-seat parliament, said Wednesday that its lawmakers decided to call on Yoon to quit immediately or they would take steps to impeach him.
“President Yoon Suk Yeol’s martial law declaration was a clear violation of the constitution. It didn’t abide by any requirements to declare it,” the Democratic Party said in a statement. “His martial law declaration was originally invalid and a grave violation of the constitution. It was a grave act of rebellion and provides perfect grounds for his impeachment.”
Impeaching him would require support from two-thirds of the parliament, or 200 of its 300 members. The Democratic Party and other small opposition parties together have 192 seats. But when the parliament rejected Yoon’s martial law declaration in a 190-0 vote, 18 lawmakers from Yoon’s ruling People Power Party cast ballots supporting the rejection, according to National Assembly officials. The leader of the People Power Party, Han Dong-hun, who has long ties with Yoon dating to their days as prosecutors, criticized Yoon’s martial law declaration as “unconstitutional.” If Yoon is impeached, he’ll be stripped of his constitutional powers until the Constitutional Court can rule on his fate. Prime Minister Han Duck-soo, the No. 2 position in the South Korean government, would take over his presidential responsibilities. As calls mounted for Yoon’s Cabinet to resign, Han issued a public message pleading for patience and calling for Cabinet members to “fulfill your duties even after this moment.”
Yoon’s martial law declaration, the first of its kind in more than 40 years, harkened to South Korea’s past military-backed governments when authorities occasionally proclaimed martial law and other decrees that allowed them to station combat soldiers, tanks and armored vehicles on streets or at public places like schools to prevent anti-government demonstrations. Such scenes of military intervention had not been seen since South Korea achieved a genuine democracy in the late 1980s until Tuesday night.
After Yoon’s declaration, troops carrying full battle gear, including assault rifles, tried to keep protesters away from the National Assembly as military helicopters flew overhead and landed nearby. One soldier pointed his assault rifle at a woman who was among protesters outside the building demanding that the martial law be lifted.
It wasn’t clear how the 190 lawmakers were able to enter a parliamentary hall to vote down Yoon’s martial law decree. Opposition leader Lee Jae-myung livestreamed himself climbing over the wall, and while troops and police officers blocked some from entering they didn’t aggressively restrain or use force against others.
No major violence has been reported. The troops and police personnel were later seen leaving the grounds of the National Assembly after the parliamentary vote to lift the martial law. National Assembly Speaker Woo Won Shik said: “Even with our unfortunate memories of military coups, our citizens have surely observed the events of today and saw the maturity of our military.”
Han, the People Power Party leader, demanded that Yoon explain his decision and fire Defense Minister Kim Yong Hyun, who he said recommended the martial law decree to Yoon. The Defense Ministry has not commented.
Under South Korea’s constitution, the president can declare martial law during “wartime, war-like situations or other comparable national emergency states” that require the use of military force to restrict the freedom of press, assembly and other rights to maintain order. Many observers question whether South Korea is currently in such a state.
The constitution also states that the president must oblige when the National Assembly demands the lifting of martial law with a majority vote.
Some experts say Yoon clearly violated the constitution in how he imposed martial law. While martial law allows “special measures” to restrict individual freedoms and the authority of agencies and courts, the constitution does not permit the functions of parliament to be restricted. But in following Yoon’s declaration on Tuesday, South Korea’s military proclaimed parliamentary activities were suspended and deployed troops to try to block lawmakers from entering the National Assembly.
Park Chan-dae, the Democratic Party’s floor leader, called for Yoon to be immediately investigated on charges of rebellion over the way he deployed troops to the parliament. While the president mostly enjoys immunity from prosecution while in office, the protection does not extend to alleged rebellion or treason.
In Washington, the White House said the US was “seriously concerned” by the events in Seoul. A spokesperson for the National Security Council said President Joe Biden’s administration was not notified in advance of the martial law announcement and was in contact with the South Korean government.
Pentagon spokesman Maj. Gen. Pat Ryder said there was no effect on the more than 27,000 US service members based in South Korea.
In Seoul, the streets seemed busy like a normal day Wednesday.
Tourist Stephen Rowan, from Brisbane, Australia, who was touring Gyeongbokgung Palace, said he was not concerned at all.
“But then again, I don’t understand too much about the political status in Korea,” he said. “But I hear they are now calling for the current president’s resignation, so ... apparently there’s going to be a lot of demonstrations. ... I would have been concerned if martial law had stayed enforced.”
Yoon’s government and ruling party have been embroiled in an impasse with the Democratic Party over next year’s budget bill and a Democratic Party-led attempt to to impeach three top prosecutors.
During his televised announcement, Yoon also described the opposition as “shameless pro-North Korean anti-state forces who are plundering the freedom and happiness of our citizens.” He did not elaborate. North Korea had no immediate comments.
Natalia Slavney, research analyst at the Stimson Center’s 38 North website that focuses on Korean affairs, said Yoon’s imposition of martial law was “a serious backslide of democracy” that followed a “worrying trend of abuse” since he took office in 2022.
South Korea “has a robust history of political pluralism and is no stranger to mass protests and swift impeachments,” Slavney said, citing the example of former President Park Geun-hye, who was ousted from office and imprisoned for bribery and other crimes in 2017. She was later pardoned.
