What holds Pakistan back?

In about a month’s time, Pakistan will be marking the 77th anniversary of its independence. This will be a moment of celebration but also reflection. While the country has made strides in many areas it is far from having achieved its promising potential. It is even further from fulfilling the vision of its founding fathers of a stable, liberal democracy responsive to the needs and aspirations of its people. 

In the 77th year of its independence Pakistan is at an inflection point, locked in a state of instability with optimism about the future in short supply. Today it faces multiple overlapping challenges – governance, economic, political, security, educational, demographic – which are converging to reinforce each other and create a polycrisis more formidable than any single crisis. 

Pakistan’s search for stability has been frustrated by lack of governance, rule without law, political disruptions that saw the country alternate between military and civilian rule, visionless leadership and of course the headwinds from a volatile neighborhood that has posed enduring security dilemmas. The confluence of these factors has grievously retarded its progress and left the country trailing behind its regional peers and neighbors in just about every indicator of economic progress and human development.

In the 77th year of its independence Pakistan is at an inflection point, locked in a state of instability with optimism about the future in short supply.  

- Maleeha Lodhi 

Arguably the single most important factor that has held the country back is a narrow, oligarchic power elite that has long dominated its politics and controlled its economy. Elite capture of the state and its stranglehold over national affairs has obviously been at the cost of people’s welfare and the country’s progress and development. This power elite has prioritized preserving its own dominance and privileges over addressing the country’s problems. As a result, governance challenges have multiplied with force and intensity leaving the country in a perpetual state of instability and insecurity. 

Over the years this power elite has shown no interest in reform — whether land reform, structural economic reforms or reform of the instruments of governance – deeming them as undermining their political or economic interests. This elite also acquired ‘rentier’ characteristics: using access to public office as a means of leveraging state resources to transfer wealth and acquire sources of unearned income. This has been a common feature of both civilian and military ruling elites. Both used patron-client relationships to reinforce their ascendancy and protect their interests and privileged status. 

Patronage-based politics practiced by elected and military governments alike relied mainly on working networks of influential political families, kinship groups and local influentials to maintain and consolidate their power. Obviously, this mode of governance failed to meet the needs of society. Yet the mass of unfulfilled public expectations never persuaded the elite to meaningfully respond to the demands of people even in their own self-interest. The people were always taken for granted.

The consequences have been grim. Pakistan has lurched from one economic crisis to another. With successive civilian, military or hybrid governments living beyond their means, unwilling to mobilize domestic resources and averse to economic reform, the country became mired in repeated financial crisis, with virtually every government in the past several decades leaving the economy in much worse shape for its successors to manage. Governments of different political complexions pursued similar economic policies, borrowing heavily both at home and abroad to manage the twin deficits of the budget and balance of payments. This has landed the country today with an unprecedented and unsustainable level of domestic and foreign debt. The fact that Pakistan is poised to enter its 24th IMF bailout program is testimony to this dismal economic record. 

The power elite’s neglect or lack of concern for human development has been even more consequential for Pakistan’s future. Today the country is in the throes of a crisis in human development with most indicators of literacy, education, health, poverty and other aspects of human welfare having deteriorated in recent years. UNDP places Pakistan at 164 out of 193 countries in the global human development rankings.

Pakistan’s founder Mohammed Ali Jinnah once said, “Education is a matter of life and death for our country.” Yet his advice was never followed. The result is that Pakistan has the world’s second highest number of out-of-school children – over 26 million. This means over 44 percent of children in the age group 5 to 16 do not go to school. The literacy level at 59 percent is stagnant. This means over 40 percent of people are illiterate. No country can achieve economic progress with these levels of illiteracy and education deficits. Yet official efforts to change this are conspicuous by their absence even though investment in education is the surest way to transform the country’s destiny.

A troubling phenomenon is that of child stunting, which a World Bank report rightly calls a “public health crisis.” The Human Capital Review report finds around 40pc of Pakistani children under five are stunted — a shocking number. The state of poverty in the country is also disturbing. According to the World Bank, poverty is estimated to have risen to almost 40 percent now. 

The country’s rising population, the fastest growing in South Asia, poses another challenge. It has far-reaching economic and social consequences and security implications. This urges the need for population management steps to be nationally implemented, which the ruling elite has failed to do. A demographic disaster looms with educational opportunities and jobs failing to keep pace with the uncontrolled increase in numbers.

This dismal state of affairs can now be ignored only at great peril to the country. The choice is stark for the country – to either remain mired in a quagmire of weak governance, dysfunctional politics, economic stagnation, internal security threats, education deficit, uncontrolled population growth and eroding public faith in state institutions or chart a new course by improving governance, undertaking wide ranging reforms and making public welfare, not the interest of a narrow elite, central to the enterprise of governance. 77 years on, it is this choice that will determine the country’s fate and fortunes. 

- Maleeha Lodhi is a former Pakistani ambassador to the US, UK & UN. She posts at X/@LodhiMaleeha